What to do with JVR

[Nik]

Yeah, again, I really wasn't making a point about the Islanders and the potential trade for JVR. Just making a point about how picks have a more universal value than a player would.

A point which, by the way, you sort of make yourself:

I can see a possibility where a team would value JvR more than Eberle. 

Sure. One example being if a team had lots of strength on the right side but less on the left. Again, this is my point that really doesn't require a deep meditation on the JVR for Hamonic talks. A player's value will heavily depend on how much a certain team wants that specific player. This is less true for draft picks.

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Galchenyuk is on the 4th line in Montreal, would anyone take him for JVR plus a wing prospect and pick not in the 1st/2nd round?

Is he the new Yakupov?

[CarltonTheBear]

One of Cox or Simmons said that they didn't think the Islanders had much interest in JVR, so I'm assuming it was Toronto who brought his name up. That does make sense since they already have Anders Lee, who was coming off a 30 goal/50 point season and Andrew Ladd, who despite a disappointing season still managed to score 23 goals and obviously has a hefty contract, on the left-side.

[Zee]

Galchenyuk is on the 4th line in Montreal, would anyone take him for JVR plus a wing prospect and pick not in the 1st/2nd round?

Is he the new Yakupov?

Galchenyuk is an interesting proposition.  He's 5 years younger than JVR, but at this point with his confidence at an all time low he would be a reclamation project for any team.  Maybe he's one of those guys where a change of scenery is best and he finds his game again?  He's under contract for 2 more seasons after this at a slightly higher cap hit than JVR currently has, so he could fit into the Leafs salary structure in the short term.   Whether or not he gets back to scoring 20+ goals is anyone's guess.

Edit: actually looking at this stats he was on pace for 22 goals last year but missed due to injury.  So maybe he's still a 20 goal guy?

[Significantly Insignificant]

Yeah, again, I really wasn't making a point about the Islanders and the potential trade for JVR. Just making a point about how picks have a more universal value than a player would.

A point which, by the way, you sort of make yourself:

I can see a possibility where a team would value JvR more than Eberle. 

Sure. One example being if a team had lots of strength on the right side but less on the left. Again, this is my point that really doesn't require a deep meditation on the JVR for Hamonic talks. A player's value will heavily depend on how much a certain team wants that specific player. This is less true for draft picks.

Sorry, I misunderstood.  I thought that you meant that JvR was considered by most teams to be a low valued player around the league and that was why the Islanders didn't want to make the move, and not specifically that team in the Islanders situation may consider JvR to be of low value. 

If we aren't here for deep meditation, then what does all this really mean?   

[Zee]

The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

[Significantly Insignificant]

The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

Which is a similar situation that Ottawa is finding themselves in concerning Kyle Turris.  He's 28, and he's pretty good, but he wants 8 years and Ottawa is afraid to put in that kind of commitment.  So the rumour is that they will play him for the year, potentially let him walk, and deal with the situation in the summer time.

So in Ottawa, I get it, because they really want to make the playoffs, and seem to be in win now mode.  That's really got to point to the Leafs feeling the same way, but they really shouldn't.  I don't think letting JvR walk would hurt the team in any significant way.  It's just an example of poor asset management at that point.

[Nik]

The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

That sort of feeds into my puzzlement. Like obviously if it were up to me I'd trade him but with that said, I at least understand re-signing him from the POV of the Leafs thinking that the forward group they have right now is so uniquely suited to each other that they need to keep the group together and simply make do on the back end. I mean, I'd disagree with it but I understand the POV.

The "he's far too important to trade but we'll let him walk for nothing" bit is where I'm at a loss.

[mr grieves]

If you prescribe to the idea that the Leafs best chance to win a cup might actually be before the big 3 + Gardiner all have their next contracts kick in (*) then trading those magic beans for a nickel and hoping the prospects provide the same impact during one of the two seasons they have their best shot at it doesn't add up.

I don't think anyone has made the case that you should only trade JVR for prospects or that you shouldn't make any other moves to improve the team immediately while still realizing the rewards of trading your UFA's on expiring deals.

Well, I have.

If, in 2 years, there's going to be a 7-8 player core taking over 50% of the cap, you need to keep finding cheap, talented depth to fill out the roster. Picking 11 times vs. 8 times in upcoming draft improves the team's chances of having depth good enough to contend over the next decade.

I just don't buy that "win now/trade JvR" dichotomy and doubt the team will be significantly hurt moving him out. They'll lose a few goals, probably, but they'll also give up fewer goals.

Keeping him feels like splurging a decent pick on a rental, which is something a team whose window is closing maybe ought to do -- but not the Leafs.

[hockeyfan1]

Darren Dreger had this to say on TSN Wednesday night: "I expect that he'll be traded. [Teams] expect that JvR will be traded at some point between now and February 26th. It's just the reality of the situation around the NHL, and specific to here in Toronto. The Leafs would need a cap explosion. They'd need another 10-15 million for all of these players. He's a valuable asset to move out."


https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/your-call-should-the-leafs-sign-or-trade-jvr


I would personally like JVR to stay a Leaf.  However, considering  the cap situation and the upcoming contracts of Matthews & Nylander, (and others), depending on what transpires this year with the roster & players they currently have/retain, it'll all come down to the mathematics and probabilities of how the Leafs perform not just for this year but what the foreseeable future will look like down the road.

Lamoriello & co., have their work cut out for them and the decisions they make will have an impact on the Leafs for better and/or for worse, more the former than the latter, considering the vast amount of skill that the team already showcases.  As long the Leafs continue to draft shrewdly and accrue assets wisely, in Lou & co., we trust.

[Nik]

Well, I have.

I like to think you're reasonable enough to be open to trading JVR if the return was a good young NHL player on a reasonable medium term deal.

[Zee]

The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

That sort of feeds into my puzzlement. Like obviously if it were up to me I'd trade him but with that said, I at least understand re-signing him from the POV of the Leafs thinking that the forward group they have right now is so uniquely suited to each other that they need to keep the group together and simply make do on the back end. I mean, I'd disagree with it but I understand the POV.

The "he's far too important to trade but we'll let him walk for nothing" bit is where I'm at a loss.

Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Letting him walk for nothing is a bit puzzling except the nothing is cap space so it's something.

[CarltonTheBear]

Edit: actually looking at this stats he was on pace for 22 goals last year but missed due to injury.  So maybe he's still a 20 goal guy?

In Tyler Seguin's first 3 seasons with the Bruins he scored 121 points in 203 games for a PPG rate of .60. In Galchenyuk's first 5 seasons with the Habs he scored 336 points in 204 games for a PPG rate of... 0.60.

Galchenyuk isn't Tyler Seguin, but there's a lot of similarities in that they both faced a lot of questions like is he a centre or a winger, should we play him on the top line, can he play defensive hockey, does he rely solely on his talent, can he work hard enough. I think if he went to a team that just let him be himself I'm certain he'd see a bump in points just like Seguin did. He wouldn't become point-per-game good like Seguin did, but a bump nonetheless.

Also somewhat interesting that the same guy who coached Tyler Seguin out of Boston is currently in the process of probably doing the same thing to Galch.

[mr grieves]

Well, I have.

I like to think you're reasonable enough to be open to trading JVR if the return was a good young NHL player on a reasonable medium term deal.

Ah misplaced the modifier while reading.

Yes, a good deal, they should definitely take.

Absent that, a typical deal -- prospect or a pick or two -- they should definitely take.

There's no circumstance other than a Cup in the spring that would make JvR's value on the team outweigh what they'd get trading him for prospects or even picks.

[Zee]

Edit: actually looking at this stats he was on pace for 22 goals last year but missed due to injury.  So maybe he's still a 20 goal guy?

In Tyler Seguin's first 3 seasons with the Bruins he scored 121 points in 203 games for a PPG rate of .60. In Galchenyuk's first 5 seasons with the Habs he scored 336 points in 204 games for a PPG rate of... 0.60.

Galchenyuk isn't Tyler Seguin, but there's a lot of similarities in that they both faced a lot of questions like is he a centre or a winger, should we play him on the top line, can he play defensive hockey, does he rely solely on his talent, can he work hard enough. I think if he went to a team that just let him be himself I'm certain he'd see a bump in points just like Seguin did. He wouldn't become point-per-game good like Seguin did, but a bump nonetheless.

Also somewhat interesting that the same guy who coached Tyler Seguin out of Boston is currently in the process of probably doing the same thing to Galch.

Whatever ends up hurting the Habs is OK in my books.  If he goes to another team and puts up more points while his replacement in Montreal stinks and they fall to the bottom of the standings -- good.  In an ideal world I want to see the Habs make a panic trade where they give up their first round pick, not lottery protected, in an effort to make the playoffs this year.  Then they miss the playoffs, and the unprotected lottery pick wins the lottery.  Maximum pain for Montreal.