Ranking Prospects - 2017-18

[Bender]

Also to add Tyler Dellow had a mailbag today and mentioned people keep calling players prospects for far longer than they should.

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[bustaheims]

We also have confirmation from Lou that Jack Walker wasn't given a qualifying offer, so one year after he was drafted as an overager, he is a free agent. He attended Minnesota's development camp (where he's from).

Why are we wasting our picks on crap? Honestly.

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To be fair, he was a 6th round pick - which is a crapshoot as it is.

[herman]

We also have confirmation from Lou that Jack Walker wasn't given a qualifying offer, so one year after he was drafted as an overager, he is a free agent. He attended Minnesota's development camp (where he's from).

Why are we wasting our picks on crap? Honestly.

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To be fair, he was a 6th round pick - which is a crapshoot as it is.

It was a reasonable enough gamble:

Season	Age	GP	G	A	PTS
2012-13	16	58	9	13	22
2013-14	17	48	7	8	15
2014-15	18	70	18	37	55
2015-16	19	72	36	48	84
2016-17	20	70	31	41	72

Look at the ramp up from D-1 to D+1 in production and it looks a lot like there was some upswing there, especially on a player with great wheels and transitioning from defense to forward.

He tapered off, and thus didn't warrant a fringe contract. Same with Korostelev and Desrocher. If Walker was our 3rd rounder, I might have more questions for Hunter. That being said, lower round picks are projects by definition, and projects need more time, so where's the wisdom in going with an overager without runway at that depth of the draft?

As it stands, I would have rather shed fringe NHL contracts as soon as I could instead of letting the clock run out on these projects, as they didn't really get a chance to even make it into our development system.

[herman]

He's 22 going on 23 later this year, which is younger than I expected.

I'm not sure what you were expecting of a guy who just finished his 3rd AHL season but I think 23 is right around where the idea of a ton of individual development is unlikely.

I wasn't disagreeing. Just thought Rychel was older based on his plateaued development (my guess was also 24), which was surprising because I still see growth potential in Johnsson (higher ceiling).

Out of curiosity, here's who was drafted +/- 5 of Rychel:
Wennberg
Pulock
Zadorov
Lazar
Mueller
Rychel
Mantha
Gauthier
Poirier
Burakovsky
Shinkaruk

Down a couple more slots are Shea Theodore and Marko Dano.
Jury's still out on Mantha (looks decent though), and other than the bolded two, this chunk of the draft looks pretty much cooked.

[Nik]

Down a couple more slots are Shea Theodore and Marko Dano.
Jury's still out on Mantha (looks decent though), and other than the bolded two, this chunk of the draft looks pretty much cooked.

It's funny, that draft looks crazy good #1-14 and then, like you say, not much after.

[herman]

http://www.tsn.ca/invitees-upstage-draft-picks-at-leafs-development-camp-1.803276

Kristen Shilton with a writeup on the development camp stand outs.

[herman]

Fun thought about the format of the dev camp: free agents vs prospects -- it's almost a Dubas vs Hunter scrimmage.

The idea for the format was largely Dubas + Pellerin, and the longshots that got a chance with the camp were Dubas-ian picks of underrated talent. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the available ones get a look with the Solar Bears and/or Marlies, a la Trevor Moore last season.

[herman]

Really good video and info about Nikolai Chebykin on r/leafs.

He's got size, speed, and skill, and it looks like he wrecked his junior league, and had a strong showing in the minor league after getting the usual KHL garbage treatment.

[Highlander]

Really good video and info about Nikolai Chebykin on r/leafs.

He's got size, speed, and skill, and it looks like he wrecked his junior league, and had a strong showing in the minor league after getting the usual KHL garbage treatment.

Hopefully a Diamond in the rough!

[Big Daddy]

If he is only 19 why cant he play for the London Nights

[herman]

More on Chebykin's situation:
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2017/7/12/15955736/toronto-maple-leafs-draft-pick-nickolai-chebykin-is-in-limbo-marlies-development-camp

[herman]

More on Chebykin's situation:
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2017/7/12/15955736/toronto-maple-leafs-draft-pick-nickolai-chebykin-is-in-limbo-marlies-development-camp

And now he has a new home with SKA-NEVA, CSKA St. Petersburgh's VHL team, for the next two years. I don't know that he'll get an opportunity with the KHL in that time due to CKSA's mad depth; they have been bleeding players to the NHL the past two seasons though.

[herman]

HERE WE GO! This is the best part of the offseason for me.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2017/7/24/15983968/top-25-under-25-2017-toronto-maple-leafs-no-love-for-the-bottom-half-of-the-draw

Here are the ones that did not make the cut, and literally did not receive any votes whatsoever. A lot of it has to do with
a) we have a lot of young/prospect depth (some of them are not prospects per se)
b) We've been drafting a lot more (numerically) than in seasons past
c) 2016-2017 drafts were a lot of unknown players and PPP has limited, if any insider knowledge

I think it's perfectly fine that some of the players on this particular list fly under our collective radars. Some of these are probably in the trade bucket (Lindberg). I'm looking forward to seeing where Bobylev, Chebykin, and Kara slot in once we get more eyeballs on them.

[herman]

PPP is just dragging this week out with names that didn't make the cut (but got some tail end votes): Dakota Joshua, JJ Piccinich, Trevor Moore. I'm guessing there'll be one more cut tomorrow (Aaltonen? Valiev? Sparks? Rasanen?) as the list is now at 26.

Still eligibles: Adam Brooks Andreas Borgman Andreas Johnsson Andrew Nielsen Auston Matthews Calle Rosen Carl Grundstrom Connor Brown Connor Carrick Dmytro Timashov Eemeli Rasanen Garret Sparks Jeremy Bracco Joseph Woll Josh Leivo Kasperi Kapanen Kerby Rychel Miro Aaltonen Mitch Marner Morgan Rielly Nikita Soshnikov Rinat Valiev Timothy Liljegren Travis Dermott William Nylander Yegor Korshkov

Cut: Dakota Joshua Fedor Gordeev Frederik Gauthier Ian Scott JD Greenway Jesper Lindgren JJ Piccinich Kasmir Kaskisuo Keaton Middleton Martins Dzierkals Nicolas Mattinen Nikolai Chebykin Nolan Vesey Pierre Engvall Ryan McGregor Ryan O'Connell Tobias Lindberg Trevor Moore Vladimir Boblyev Vladislav Kara

[Coco-puffs]

Out of that list, the name that sticks out as never going to reach beyond his current standing is Valiev, who is at this point probably an average AHL defenseman and with other options available, I don't see him sniffing the NHL again through Toronto. 

Everyone else on the list probably can still sniff the NHL (if they aren't already there), even though I doubt more than 5 of the players listed below #8 are full-time NHLers during their career.  (Some others will get call-ups, but will not be everyday players.  Some of the wingers probably won't get a sniff of the Maple Leafs, but on teams with less winger depth they may see it down the road)

Anyways, my ranking:

Auston Matthews
William Nylander
Mitch Marner
Morgan Rielly
Timothy Liljegren
Kasperi Kapanen
Connor Brown
Connor Carrick
Carl Grundstrom
Travis Dermott
Adam Brooks
Josh Leivo
Andreas Borgman
Miro Aaltonen
Nikita Soshnikov
Jeremy Bracco
Joseph Woll
Kerby Rychel
Calle Rosen
Andreas Johnsson
Andrew Nielsen
Garret Sparks
Yegor Korshkov
Eemeli Rasanen
Dmytro Timashov