Author Topic: Armchair GM 2016-2017  (Read 51088 times)

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Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #315 on: January 05, 2017, 02:20:56 PM »
32 million is not chump change

It's also not mad money. That's Matthews + Marner + Nylander + Gardiner extension money. Realistically the Leafs will have some of it to use on a key UFA or two but good cap management but that's about it.
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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #316 on: January 05, 2017, 03:02:53 PM »
32 million is not chump change

It's also not mad money. That's Matthews + Marner + Nylander + Gardiner extension money. Realistically the Leafs will have some of it to use on a key UFA or two but good cap management but that's about it.

Yeah. It sounds like a lot of money, but it gets used up awfully quickly. If you figure an average of $5.5M per on the 4 extensions you reference, that's already $22M gone.
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Offline Britishbulldog

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #317 on: January 05, 2017, 03:09:40 PM »
It really irks me that the Leafs lost those 2 draft picks.  I would really like to see the Leafs getting the 3rd round picks back for Lou and Babcock.  After they were taken by the NHL, the powers that be realized how ridiculous it was they rescinded the rule but did not return the 2 picks.

I wish the Leafs could offer a 'Frattin' deal to NJ and Det with Greening, Laich and Michalek that they get traded to the teams like Frattin did to Ottawa and then have them all loaned to the Marlies so that the Leafs pay their salaries and they don't have to be uprooted.
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Offline Britishbulldog

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #318 on: January 05, 2017, 03:50:39 PM »
If I am 'Armchair GM'ing 2016-2017 at this point in the season I would like to see a couple of moves but I am still torn on moving JVR at his age as he probably with have an impact for another 6 years still.

      1st MOVE:
Marincin, M ($625,000 retained)
Polak, R ($1,125,000 retained)
Leipsic, B
Corrado, F

for
Manson, J
Stoner, C

Since Manson will most likely not be able to be protected by Anaheim they can translate him into 2 prospects, a 6th dman and a rough and tumble UFA Polak who can try to fill Manson's role for the playoff push.

Marincin also gives Anaheim a dman to expose, Corrado is a young-ish RH dman to develop and Leipsic gives them a decent LH LW prospect that can be sent to the minors without having to pass through waivers to save on cap space.

The retained salaries help the Leafs to sweeten the deal for Anaheim who is currently over $4 MIL over the cap.

Manson gives the Leafs a decent #4 dman and Stoner fits the criteria for expansion to replace Marincin if he can play 5 games for the Leafs and is the logical salary dump for Anaheim to help the Leafs sweeten the deal by helping Anaheim get over $3 MIL off the cap.

      2nd MOVE:
Bracco, J
Hyman, Z
Soshnikov, N
Dermott, T

for

Kane, E

This is a bit of a risk as E Kane seems to have character issues and if he doesn't settle down then the Leafs are out a 4 good players. Atlanta, Winnipeg and Buffalo haven't been able to do it but maybe Shanahan, Lou and Babcock might be able to get him to mature. If not then he should not be re-signed which would be a shame.

OTOH, if he settles down and plays at his potential on Matthews LW for the next 10 years it could be a great trade.

Bracco is a solid RW prospect where the Leafs have decent depth. Hyman and Soshnikov are good skating grinders with a bit of an offensive touch. Dermott is one the Leafs better dman prospects. This trade is basically the classic 4 dimes for a quarter.

All 4 Leaf players in the deal are Expansion Draft Exempt.

POTENTIAL LINEUP:
Kane / Matthews / Brown
JVR / Bozak / Marner
Komarov / Kadri / Kapanen
Martin / Gauthier / Nylander
Leivo / Smith

Rielly / Zaitsev
Gardiner / Manson
Stoner (Hunwick) / Carrick

Andersen / Bibeau

Roster Size    Salary CapCap HitCap Overage Penalty     BonusesCap Space
23$73,000,000   $65,026,666   $512,000   $5,702,500   $7,973,334

That would only leave Brown and Zaitsev as key pieces to re-sign at $2,500,000 per year for 3 years and $5,000,000 per year for 6 years respectively leaving next years payroll at $67,688,000 and bonuses at $4,782,500 which they where all met by every player on an ELC would put the potential payroll at $72,470,500 including Gleason's $1.3 MIL buyout and Cowen's $0.75 MIL buyout not including Lupul on LITR which I believe can't be used to absorb ELC bonuses.  If the cap does not increase from $73,000,000 then the Leafs might have another penalty slapped on them.

The only other thing I was wondering was adding JVR and Ritchie to the Anaheim trade with 50% of JVR's salary retained instead of Marincin salary to help the numbers work for Anaheim. 
All The Best
Dan

Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #319 on: January 05, 2017, 04:00:22 PM »

I'm pretty sure a team can only retain salary on two players and the Leafs are already doing so on Kessel.

Likewise, something to keep in mind is that if the Leafs plan on protecting 4 defensemen(which in that scenario would be Gardiner, Reilly, Zaitsev and Manson) they'll need to expose either Bozak or Komarov in the expansion draft(assuming JVR, Kadri and Kane are guys you'd then protect).

Personally, I don't think the potential benefits of Kane living up to his "potential" come anywhere close to the the downsides of having him around a young/developing club. Especially not if the trade for him involves some of the team's better prospects and depth players.
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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #320 on: January 05, 2017, 04:08:12 PM »
I'm pretty sure a team can only retain salary on two players and the Leafs are already doing so on Kessel.

Likewise, something to keep in mind is that if the Leafs plan on protecting 4 defensemen(which in that scenario would be Gardiner, Reilly, Zaitsev and Manson) they'll need to expose either Bozak or Komarov in the expansion draft(assuming JVR, Kadri and Kane are guys you'd then protect).

Personally, I don't think the potential benefits of Kane living up to his "potential" come anywhere close to the the downsides of having him around a young/developing club. Especially not if the trade for him involves some of the team's better prospects and depth players.

In addition, Leipsic would have to be protected in the expansion draft, and is not waiver exempt next season.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #321 on: January 05, 2017, 04:11:56 PM »
In addition, Leipsic would have to be protected in the expansion draft, and is not waiver exempt next season.

True but in the above scenario we've traded Leipsic to Anaheim already.

Which, and I haven't had time to look at it, probably raises the issue for Anaheim of losing a good player in the expansion draft anyway.
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Online herman

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #322 on: January 05, 2017, 04:27:46 PM »
We can retain salary on three contracts. Kessel leaves us with two slots.

Edit: pls Lou, no Kane. Not even Patrick Kane, tbh.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2017, 04:29:56 PM by herman »
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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #323 on: January 05, 2017, 04:44:21 PM »
In addition, Leipsic would have to be protected in the expansion draft, and is not waiver exempt next season.

True but in the above scenario we've traded Leipsic to Anaheim already.

Which, and I haven't had time to look at it, probably raises the issue for Anaheim of losing a good player in the expansion draft anyway.

Yeah, I meant in terms of him being slightly less appealing to Anaheim than the initial post suggests.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Britishbulldog

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #324 on: January 05, 2017, 07:43:41 PM »
I'm pretty sure a team can only retain salary on two players and the Leafs are already doing so on Kessel.

Likewise, something to keep in mind is that if the Leafs plan on protecting 4 defensemen(which in that scenario would be Gardiner, Reilly, Zaitsev and Manson) they'll need to expose either Bozak or Komarov in the expansion draft(assuming JVR, Kadri and Kane are guys you'd then protect).

Personally, I don't think the potential benefits of Kane living up to his "potential" come anywhere close to the the downsides of having him around a young/developing club. Especially not if the trade for him involves some of the team's better prospects and depth players.

In addition, Leipsic would have to be protected in the expansion draft, and is not waiver exempt next season.

Oh...you are right Busta regarding Leipsic.  He is NOT exempt from the waiver draft.

A team can have the maximum of 3 retained salaries at a time so when Polak becomes a UFA July 1st the Leafs would have a space open again. 

Nik, Zaitsev is draft exempt.  I was thinking he would join Rielly, Gardiner, and Manson being the top 4 next year and leaving Carrick and Stoner exposed with Stoner meeting the criteria as the dman signed for next year if he plays 5 more games this season.

The Leafs might have to get Smith and Froese signed for next season to have 2 eligible forwards.  They also need 12 games each in the NHL this season.  That would leave 7 spots up front.  I would pick Kadri, JVR, Bozak, Komarov, Martin, Brown and E Kane. 

I would expect to lose Carrick, Leivo, or Rychel.

Otherwise if the Leafs and Ducks added JVR and Ritchie then I might protect Leivo as well.

E Kane does seem to be a high risk.  It is just with his speed, hard hitting and scoring touch it would be a great compliment to Brown and Matthews.  Hyman seems to have great character, speed and hitting but he doesn't have the softest hands to finish a lot of plays he is given.
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Offline Britishbulldog

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #325 on: January 05, 2017, 07:50:21 PM »
In addition, Leipsic would have to be protected in the expansion draft, and is not waiver exempt next season.

True but in the above scenario we've traded Leipsic to Anaheim already.

Which, and I haven't had time to look at it, probably raises the issue for Anaheim of losing a good player in the expansion draft anyway.

Anaheim is in trouble with the draft with Bieksa having to be protected with his NMC as well as 4 other dmen they want to keep including Vatanen, Fowler, Manson and Lindholm.  At the forward position they have 3 NMCs with Getzlaf, Perry and Kesler with Rackell and Silfverberg still to protect.

They will lose someone they want to keep.

That is why I was wondering about Manson.  Smooth skating, hard nosed RH dman.
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Dan

Offline Britishbulldog

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #326 on: January 06, 2017, 08:51:23 AM »
32 million is not chump change

It's also not mad money. That's Matthews + Marner + Nylander + Gardiner extension money. Realistically the Leafs will have some of it to use on a key UFA or two but good cap management but that's about it.

Yeah. It sounds like a lot of money, but it gets used up awfully quickly. If you figure an average of $5.5M per on the 4 extensions you reference, that's already $22M gone.

This summer 2017 I was thinking that Zaitsev would get a pay raise from $0.925 to $5 MIL x 6 years and Brown from $0.687 to a $2.5 MIL bridge contract to 2019/20.

The summer of 2018 I figured Nylander would get at most 'Kadri' money $4.5 MIL 3 year bridge contract but wonder if he might get even less.

The summer of 2019 I thought Marner would get $6.5 MIL 3 year bridge contract, Matthews would get $7.5 and Gardiner would get $5 MIL x 7 years taking him to 35 years old.  This is the 1st summer the Leafs would need some real cap room.   

If the cap went up to $79 MIL in 3 years then I created a few place holders.  The Leafs could re-sign JVR until he is 35 years old or a Okposo type UFA to an 'Okposo' type deal of $6 MIL x 7 years, have a LW for Matthews and Brown at $5.25 MIL like E Kane, and add a defensive 4th dman for $3.5. 


2019-20   $75,980,834

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Kane, EvanderMatthews, AustonBrown, Connor
$5,250,000$7,500,000$2,500,000* rfa
282225
             
Van Riemsdyk, James    Nylander, WilliamMarner, Mitchell
$6,000,000$4,500,000$6,500,000
302322
             
Komarov, LeoKadri, NazemKapanen, Kasperi
$2,950,000$4,500,000$3,500,000
322923
             
Martin, MattGauthier, Frederik    ELC or UFA??
$2,500,000$1,250,000$1,500,000   
302421
            
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender   
Rielly, MorganZaitsev, NikitaAndersen, Frederik
$5,000,000$5,000,000$5,000,000
252830
             
Gardiner, JakeManson, JoshBibeau, Antoine
$5,000,000$3,500,000$950,000
292825
         
Nielsen, AndrewCarrick, Connor   
$686,667$1,500,000      
2325   
         
Dermott, Travis
$894,167
23         


All The Best
Dan

Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #327 on: January 06, 2017, 09:19:08 AM »
Evander Kane is going to be Chris Stewart all over again, isn't he?

For serious though, I think you might want to re-evaluate Nylander. Right now he's scoring at a 59/82 pace while getting tossed around the line-up.

For double serious, no Evander Kane. If a guy with those attributes is important, the Leafs should develop one. Or sign one. If the complaints against him in the Nightclub incident are true I would rather the Leafs be a less good hockey team than a better one with him on it.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2017, 09:27:24 AM by Nik the Trik »
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Offline Highlander

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #328 on: January 06, 2017, 10:34:35 AM »
I will personally cane Lou if he signs Kane
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Online herman

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #329 on: January 06, 2017, 12:13:51 PM »
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/1/6/14148860/the-next-nine-months-and-the-leafs-rebuild-matthews-shattenkirk-boyle-kruger-pokka-kulikov

There's a lot in this, some that I agree with and some that I don't, but it's interesting nonetheless.

This part in particular:
Quote
Acquiring exposed players for exempt ones
As currently positioned, the Leafs have more forward protection slots than they need, and if you can envision a team that’s likely to have more forwards than it’s able to protect—for example, Anaheim looks positioned to lose Jakob Silfverberg, and Nashville has too many depth forwards—there might be a deal to be made there. The Leafs also have several expansion-exempt wing prospects, headed by Kasperi Kapanen, who could be appealing to a team caught in this kind of position.

As I’ve written elsewhere, the expansion draft exposes defenders more so than forwards, and here the Leafs have a bit more of a bind—acquiring another expansion-available defender would likely force them to expose Connor Carrick, so it would have to be a definitive upgrade. (Brief reminder—the Leafs are likely to be able to protect three defencemen. Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly are obvious choices, and Nikita Zaitsev is exempt. If the Leafs get another d-man, they’ll probably want to protect the guy they acquired with their final protection slot, which means they can no longer use it to shield Carrick.)
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