Armchair GM 2016-2017

[Nik]

Bozak is one of those players that teams tend to pay a lot for at a deadline.  Very much like an Antoine Vermette, who went for a 1st round pick.  Bozak is not as good at faceoffs as Vermette is, but is much more offensively inclined.  I would say a late 1st is definitely fair value for him, or at the very least, a 2nd + something...

I wonder about the Vermette comparison. I think that there are two problems there. One, I think NHL GMs aren't above attaching real value to the sorts of round number plateaus that Vermette has done better with in his career. He has hit 50 and even 60 points and scored 20 goals four times. It's all well and good for us to say Bozak has had years where, pro-rated, his numbers project to 50 points over an 82 game span or that 49 points is essentially the same but I really think some people are retrograde to attach some value to those arbitrary heights.

The other one is I think Vermette is more seen as a guy who you can put on a 3rd line and have him provide some offense there even without the greatest linemates. The year before Vermette got traded for that 1st he scored 24 goals playing primarily with Mikael Boedker and Rob Clinkhammer(Although that was mainly because of his PP role). I don't know if Bozak is seen as a depth guy in that same way.

[Tigger]

For argument, how about a poor man's Vermette for 2.1 per for the rest of this year and next.

[Nik]

For argument, how about a poor man's Vermette for 2.1 per for the rest of this year and next.

 

I'm sure eating money on Bozak makes him a little more appealing but I don't see it answering the more pressing question. Do teams legitimately see him as a top 6 guy? Do they think he contributes enough away from the scoresheet for the bottom 6? Or that he drives enough offense to make for a more modern style third line even with not great linemates?

Because I think in order for a team to give up something really valuable for a player they have to really want them, regardless of the price.

[CarltonTheBear]

Vermette was also a regular contributor on the Coyotes penalty kill. The fact that he had that on his resume and had a reputation of being a defensive player probably played a big role in Chicago coughing up a 1st for him.

[McGarnagle]

Although it might not be a popular opinion, there's always the option of trading Kadri and extending Bozak at likely a very reasonable cap hit. Their stats aren't all that different, but they could get a really top end D prospect for Kadri at 26, vs relatively little for Bozak.

If the plan is to put Nylander at center at some point, doesn't Bozak make more sense than Kadri in the #3 spot, with a solid D acquisition to boot?

[Highlander]

Was working on another Leafs brass 'speed up the process' pov and wondered if some of the beneficial by product might be added value to minus one year ufa contracts at the following deadline, Komarov, JVR, Bozak

FORWARDS

L. Komarov ($ 2,950,000) --- A. Matthews ($ 925,000) --- W. Nylander ($ 894,166)
J. Van Riemsdyk ($ 4,250,000) --- N. Kadri ($ 4,500,000) --- C. Brown ($ 1,200,000)
N. Soshnikov ($ 736,666) --- T. Bozak ($ 4,200,000) --- M. Marner ($ 894,166)
K. Kapanen ($ 863,333) --- F. Gauthier ($ 863,333) --- Z. Hyman ($ 900,000)
...

That's a LTIR team, but, between Horton and Lupul it could be interesting. I'm not convinced selling JVR now is a slam dunk better choice than waiting til next year, unless the Leafs really are willing to keep bottoming out and maybe retains now to make it a more attractive option.

Maybe someone can weigh in on this, but Matthews is definitely hitting some of his bonuses and will have a higher cap hit.

One time I want to see a guy blow his bonus's into Space.  Worth every dime and we will be losing some big contracts at the end of this year. I believe Laitch and Greening are gone aren't they?

[Tigger]

Sure, I can see teams, managers, needing to feel like they really want the player first and feeling like he isn't quite any of those things but then I can also see it coming from a function of need, dollars and sense. Might get into that low first territory for Bozak.

[Nik]

If the plan is to put Nylander at center at some point, doesn't Bozak make more sense than Kadri in the #3 spot, with a solid D acquisition to boot?

Only if you're as comfortable giving Bozak some of the defensive assignments Kadri has handled this year. Personally, I don't think Bozak has that kind of range to his game.

[Bullfrog]

Maybe someone can weigh in on this, but Matthews is definitely hitting some of his bonuses and will have a higher cap hit.

One time I want to see a guy blow his bonus's into Space.  Worth every dime and we will be losing some big contracts at the end of this year. I believe Laitch and Greening are gone aren't they?

Robidas, Polak, Hunwick, Smith, Laich, Michalek, and Greening are all off the books after this year.

[Highlander]

So how many 2nds to we get for a Roman this year?

[McGarnagle]

If the plan is to put Nylander at center at some point, doesn't Bozak make more sense than Kadri in the #3 spot, with a solid D acquisition to boot?

Only if you're as comfortable giving Bozak some of the defensive assignments Kadri has handled this year. Personally, I don't think Bozak has that kind of range to his game.

Well, I had assumed that Tavares would help with some of the heavy lifting.

[Britishbulldog]

Maybe someone can weigh in on this, but Matthews is definitely hitting some of his bonuses and will have a higher cap hit.

One time I want to see a guy blow his bonus's into Space.  Worth every dime and we will be losing some big contracts at the end of this year. I believe Laitch and Greening are gone aren't they?

Robidas, Polak, Hunwick, Smith, Laich, Michalek, and Greening are all off the books after this year.

That tranlates to $14.75 MIL.

Next year it is JVR, Bozak and Komarov that need to be addressed at a combined $11.4 MIL.

Next year having non-roster players Lupul, Gleason and Cowen coming of the books will create another $7.333 of cap space leaving only Kessel's $1.2 MIL until 2021/22. 

[Highlander]

32 million is not chump change

[herman]

JvR 'news'

Over the weekend, at least one team inquired to see if it was on JVR's no trade list. Media speculation promotes these calls...

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) January 5, 2017

www.twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/816834629852348420

http://theleafsnation.com/2017/1/5/the-leafs-might-want-to-wait-out-a-van-riemsdyk-trade

Toronto's most opportune time, should they choose to go that route, will likely be at this year's draft. Teams will likely be scrambling after Las Vegas' expansion selections, and with Alexander Radulov likely to be extended by the Montreal Canadians far before then, van Riemsdyk will likely be the best winger with the best contract value on the market for acquisition. This way, as well, Toronto doesn't have to worry about exposing Connor Carrick to said Vegas Draft, which any trade for a big-minutes defenceman will do, unless they choose to go for the just-as-risky "eight skater" protection list.

Eehhh...

[bustaheims]

There isn't much in terms of quality top 6 forwards in the UFA market this summer, so, there may be some advantage there - though, that being said, that also means the market of teams focused on top 6 upgrades will be smaller, as more teams will have theirs locked up.

As for the expansion draft - with teams being able to protect 7 forwards, there's not likely to be a whole lot of scrambling there. Honestly, I think the impact of the expansion draft is being over-stated. There'll be a few defencemen and maybe a couple other goalies that get moved because of it, and some teams may be a little more hesitant to add certain players with term, but it's not going to be a huge craze or anything.