Author Topic: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap  (Read 14072 times)

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Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #90 on: July 12, 2016, 09:20:49 AM »
Yegor Korshkov at the World Juniors, where recency bias reigns supreme, courtesy of /r/leafs.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRErOrnowiU[/youtube]

It's just one play, but I can definitely see why we picked him up that high (he wouldn't have made it to our next pick). His shot fake and spin is on Zach Werenski.

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #90 on: July 12, 2016, 09:20:49 AM »

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #91 on: July 12, 2016, 09:29:52 AM »

He sure looks like a man among boys.
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Offline Highlander

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #92 on: July 12, 2016, 10:17:44 AM »
great move on that play
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children"
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Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #93 on: July 14, 2016, 09:33:41 PM »
http://theleafsnation.com/2015/6/24/why-player-age-may-shape-the-maple-leafs-approach-to-the-2015-nhl-draft

An old post that references older work by members of the analytics department prior to their hires highlighting potential market inefficiencies in the younger end of the draft age spectrum.

This year's draft seemed to go in the opposite extreme -- extra old overlooked players because they were already tainted with being deemed unworthy previously.

Online bustaheims

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #94 on: July 14, 2016, 09:45:05 PM »
This year's draft seemed to go in the opposite extreme -- extra old overlooked players because they were already tainted with being deemed unworthy previously.

Which, interestingly enough, he touches upon where he quotes his previous work (as narcissistic as that seems), noting that age 20+ draftees produce players that over-perform their draft slot at a similar to rate to the youngest draft eligible players.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline TBLeafer

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #95 on: July 15, 2016, 08:53:02 AM »
Had me excited there for a sec.  I thought for a moment that you went back and found an analysis piece put together by Cam Charron.  ;)

Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #96 on: July 15, 2016, 09:23:37 AM »
This year's draft seemed to go in the opposite extreme -- extra old overlooked players because they were already tainted with being deemed unworthy previously.

Which, interestingly enough, he touches upon where he quotes his previous work (as narcissistic as that seems), noting that age 20+ draftees produce players that over-perform their draft slot at a similar to rate to the youngest draft eligible players.

Hah, I didn't click those links as there was no overt reference to over-agers in the link text.
http://canucksarmy.com/2012/6/15/nhl-draft-mike-gillis-and-player-age

Quote
What Rob's data shows is extremely interesting for our purposes. First off, his findings indicate that older 18 year olds are overvalued at the draft. Whenever a definable group appears to be overvalued, that means that there's probably a market inefficiency that an aware General Manager can exploit, in this case by drafting the youngest group of players on the board in later rounds.

[...]

Statistically speaking, Mike Gillis' habit of drafting older players in later rounds puts the Canucks at a slight disadvantage. Again according to Rob's data, as a group, the youngest players drafted in later rounds outperform their draft slot by the most, and individually, produce the highest rate of over-performers. The oldest players (20+) rarely outperform their draft slot, though, they do produce individual over-performers at a comparable rate as the youngest group - and at a higher rate than any of the middle groupings.

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #97 on: July 15, 2016, 09:32:18 AM »

Matthews is an older 18 year old, right?
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Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #98 on: July 15, 2016, 09:45:22 AM »

Matthews is an older 18 year old, right?

Like the oldest one at this year's draft, I would imagine, if he missed last year's cut off by two days.

The market inefficiency stuff really only comes into effect in the absence of clearer performance history, right?

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #99 on: July 15, 2016, 09:46:35 AM »

Matthews is an older 18 year old, right?

Like the oldest one at this year's draft, I would imagine, if he missed last year's cut off by two days.

Pffft. No wonder he's not going to get those bonuses.
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Offline Highlander

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #100 on: July 15, 2016, 10:13:52 AM »
Edmonton just signed Puljujarvi, so not worried about the Matthews thing at all. It will be worked out.
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children"
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Offline Bullfrog

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #101 on: July 15, 2016, 11:46:15 AM »
Edmonton just signed Puljujarvi, so not worried about the Matthews thing at all. It will be worked out.

Is anyone actually worried?

Offline TBLeafer

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #102 on: July 15, 2016, 12:32:34 PM »
Didn't Crosby sign his in September?

Stamkos at the end of July?

I don't think its bonus related.  As Shanny said, they didn't get stupid overnight.

There could be some offers they're sifting through for his rights, for all we know.

I imagine that when they have determined that keeping him is ultimately, without a hint of a doubt, the best option for their future, they will offer him his appropriate contract, bonuses and all.

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #103 on: July 15, 2016, 12:35:19 PM »

Seriously, you guys might not want to trip over yourselves in a rush to defend everything the team does and figure out what a joke is.
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Offline TBLeafer

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #104 on: July 15, 2016, 12:42:24 PM »

Seriously, you guys might not want to trip over yourselves in a rush to defend everything the team does and figure out what a joke is.

I got the joke.  :)

Just trying to put people's minds at ease.  ;)

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #104 on: July 15, 2016, 12:42:24 PM »