Jays Roster Discussion

[Darryl]

Happ has good value. Could get something for reliever Joe Smith assuming he's healthy.  With the number of teams in who still think they have a shot might not be the deepest market place come the deadline.

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[Arn]

So do we think it was a mistake to hang on to Bautista and not start rebuilding without him (and Encarnacion)? Or has it just been bad luck and injuries?

Is Gibbons the right man to take things on?

Will it be another 20 odd years before the Jays make the post season again?

[hockeyfan1]

As we've seen, the Blue Jays biggest problem this year has been their offence.  But an even bigger problem, with all of it's vulnerabilities has been the rotation.

According to ESPN Statistics, the Jays overall pitching sits at 17th with a 4.48 ERA in the league. It ranks 19th when one takes into account their starters with a 4.73 ERA.

Last year, the Jays starters ranked 4th overall with a 3.64 ERA.  Among one of the best in the league.

According to Baseball Reference, the Jays offence ranked sixth lowest in the league at 4.13/game.

Coupled with all of the injuries, the 'bad luck' or more aptly put "Murphy's Law" -- "what can go wrong will go wrong" -- whatever you want to call it, it is what it is that makes for a terrible combination of poor results.  Which takes us back to the topic of depth and inconsistency, as I've said a hundred fold.

Depth as in relief pitching -- is Osuna the only good reliable guy they've got?  As a closer, yeah.   None of the Jays bullpen with the exception of Mike Bolsinger (and he's currently on the DL) has shown any real threat to be a good shutdown.  Leone maybe.  As for Tepera, Loup, Harrell....have your say.   not much dependable depth there.

The starters, with the exception of Stroman and perhaps Happ, have been shaky at best. Estrada is havin a year he'll likely want to forget.  Liriano?  Sanchez?  Hampered by recurring blistered finger problems yet again just when he was about to get back to his reliable self. (sigh).

Well, we can say the starting pitching and the offence have one thing in common:  inconsistencies by far and wide.  The depth is there but is there the willingness, the mental toughness, the confidence, etc.    Let's put it this way, Justin Smoak is flying high this year.  He's provided offence in a way the others have not, but where they should have -- Donaldson, Tulo, yes, even Jose. 

Having guys like Steve Pearce, Devon Travis ( who was on track in having himself a career year until he got injured), and Smoak is great.  Now what about the rest of the supporting cast?  Goins & Barney are the weak chain in the order. 

We can go on and on.  The fact remains that the Blue Jays roster is the oldest in MLB, the most injury-prone team this year, lack of proper depth in key places, a general malaise that permeates, and etc.

Lots of questions and a smorgasbord of probable answers.   Just like the Jays season.

One more thing:  the farm system.  It desperately needs to be built up more for the future of the parent team. 

[Darryl]

So do we think it was a mistake to hang on to Bautista and not start rebuilding without him (and Encarnacion)? Or has it just been bad luck and injuries?

Is Gibbons the right man to take things on?

Will it be another 20 odd years before the Jays make the post season again?

The biggest issue moving Bautista is his 10-5 right.  But a chance to win could get him to submit a list of teams.

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[Andy]

So do we think it was a mistake to hang on to Bautista and not start rebuilding without him (and Encarnacion)? Or has it just been bad luck and injuries?

Is Gibbons the right man to take things on?

Will it be another 20 odd years before the Jays make the post season again?

The biggest issue moving Bautista is his 10-5 right.  But a chance to win could get him to submit a list of teams.

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That being said, he's a low .700 OPS hitter right now with below average fielding and base-running skills. I don't imagine the Jays would get anything of note for him.

[bustaheims]

That being said, he's a low .700 OPS hitter right now with below average fielding and base-running skills. I don't imagine the Jays would get anything of note for him.

You never know. I'm sure there are still a couple GMs out there who think he'll rebound on a better team, and are banking on his ability to be a "big game player," etc. All it really takes is one to really fall in love with the idea of adding Bautista to their lineup, and suddenly, the Jays are pulling in a quality prospect or two for him.

[Nik Bethune]

You never know. I'm sure there are still a couple GMs out there who think he'll rebound on a better team, and are banking on his ability to be a "big game player," etc. All it really takes is one to really fall in love with the idea of adding Bautista to their lineup, and suddenly, the Jays are pulling in a quality prospect or two for him.

Also, there are teams with legit playoff aspirations who are giving regular at-bats to guys performing worse at positions Bautista can play(The Yankees at 1B, for instance).

[sickbeast]

My prediction is that the Blue Jays will do nothing at the deadline.  All of their UFAs have had horrible seasons.  I don't think the fanbase will tolerate trading Bautista, plus I don't think they could get a legit prospect back for him.  I think they will largely keep the current team intact and then rebuild over the off season.  They're not going to trade guys like Happ/Stroman/Osuna/Sanchez/Donaldson because those guys are a big part of the future of this team.  Management is not going to throw the towel on both this season and next season.  That would be catastrophic.  We're not talking about Leafs fans here.  These are Blue Jays fans.  Extremely fickle.  Rogers Centre will be a ghost town.

[Andy]

That being said, he's a low .700 OPS hitter right now with below average fielding and base-running skills. I don't imagine the Jays would get anything of note for him.

You never know. I'm sure there are still a couple GMs out there who think he'll rebound on a better team, and are banking on his ability to be a "big game player," etc. All it really takes is one to really fall in love with the idea of adding Bautista to their lineup, and suddenly, the Jays are pulling in a quality prospect or two for him.

I'd be more than happy with a quality prospect as a return, if he's willing to leave.

I'm not sure who Bautista supplants in NY though. Holliday and Frazier are both outperforming him (the latter albeit slightly but still).

[Nik Bethune]

They're not going to trade guys like Happ/Stroman/Osuna/Sanchez/Donaldson because those guys are a big part of the future of this team.

Happ is 34, only signed for one more season and has been solid but unspectacular this year. It's fairly unlikely he'll still be a part of a rebuilt Blue Jays team.

[Nik Bethune]

I'm not sure who Bautista supplants in NY though. Holliday and Frazier are both outperforming him (the latter albeit slightly but still).

Not to get into a protracted statistical discussion but OPS isn't a great single number offensive metric(even OPS+). I don't think too many people within the advanced metrics community think a point of SLG is the equivalent of a point of OBP.

[Andy]

I'm not sure who Bautista supplants in NY though. Holliday and Frazier are both outperforming him (the latter albeit slightly but still).

Not to get into a protracted statistical discussion but OPS isn't a great single number offensive metric(even OPS+). I don't think too many people within the advanced metrics community think a point of SLG is the equivalent of a point of OBP.

What do you use though? Bautista's WAR is based on his OF ability but if you want him to be a 1B in NY then that value plummets. His OBP isn't that great either and it' just a little over .300 for the last month and a half.

It could be a decent acquisition in the hopes that a change of scenery or playoff chase might spark him, to be sure, but I don't think any team is going to give up a legit prospect for that chance. I think, if he moves, it will be for, at the most, a couple of low-mid range prospects and with Toronto eating a nice chunk of remaining $. 

[Andy]

My prediction is that the Blue Jays will do nothing at the deadline.  All of their UFAs have had horrible seasons.  I don't think the fanbase will tolerate trading Bautista, plus I don't think they could get a legit prospect back for him.  I think they will largely keep the current team intact and then rebuild over the off season.  They're not going to trade guys like Happ/Stroman/Osuna/Sanchez/Donaldson because those guys are a big part of the future of this team.  Management is not going to throw the towel on both this season and next season.  That would be catastrophic.  We're not talking about Leafs fans here.  These are Blue Jays fans.  Extremely fickle.  Rogers Centre will be a ghost town.

Yeah, it's a pretty odd (for lack of a better word) situation that the team is in. Attendance is near the top of the MLB so from a business standpoint I can understand the reluctance to tear everything apart. You also can't tank and be saved by a Crosby or Matthews or McDavid either; these prospects take a lot more time and can be quite unpredictable. The farm system's best prospects are far away from the MLB too. So all of that combined with the division being wide open and the wild card dominated by mediocre teams makes the decision to blow it up that more difficult.

Personally I'd love to see major changes. This is a team that struggles to make basic, fundamental plays. They can't run, can't hit with RISP, are aging/injury prone and have been buoyed by a bullpen that has been surprisingly, and unrealistically, good. I just don't see any major changes happening.

[Captain Canuck]

I think if this team doesn't start moving out a few bodies and planning for the future it will be a major mistake that could set them back even further as far as competing again in the near future.

This team can't move runners or hit with RISP, they don't have a whole lot of speed on the basepaths, the defense has regressed a lot, injuries aside the starting pitching as a whole just hasn't been very good, etc, etc.

On the positive side Smoak has surprised and the bullpen hasn't been too bad.

What has been really crappy is the UFA players just being plain awful and making them worth next to nothing in a trade (Estrada, Liriano and Howell in particular).
I still think someone will make a fair offer for Bautista, but he needs to waive his no-trade clause to make that happen.
Really think you have to go beyond those guys and really think about moving guys like Happ, one of Barney/Goins, and maybe Donaldson too if you get an offer that blows your socks off.

I keep hearing people say they need to keep the core together for another run in 2018. Why? How will the team be any better than the 2017 version in that scenario? Personally I think the contention window has shut on the current group and its time to be smart and build for the future.

Next season should be the start of the transition as you can't get rid of all these contracts for older, declining players at once. The team will have to be built around guys like Martin, Tulo and Morales with younger, cheaper players with more upside filling in at some of the other positions.
There are a few guys on the roster now who should not be moved and become key pieces of the future such as Osuna, Stroman, and Sanchez. The jury is still out on Travis with all the injury history and the Dee Gordon rumblings it makes me wonder if he gets moved to a corner outfield spot in the near future. I'd consider keeping Pillar with his great glove, but just wish he would improve with the bat.

As far as losing casual fans go I could care less about those people. I just hope Jays management will feel the same way and do what is best for the team, not for the bottom line. If you do what is best for the team these casual fans will come crawling back eventually anyway to jump on the bandwagon.

[Nik Bethune]

What do you use though? Bautista's WAR is based on his OF ability but if you want him to be a 1B in NY then that value plummets.

Well, I think the best approach to take is to not look for any single metric but rather have a composite picture based on a number of them. "How well is player X hitting" isn't a one answer question in the way that WAR, say, makes a question of a player's total raw value fairly straightforward.