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My (hopeful) guess:2015-16: Lupul hits the IR in January and doesn't come back. Older expiring UFAs moved out by the deadline for 2-4th rd picks. Reimer is flipped for a 3rd and an older backup to a contender. Kadri and JvR are shopped, but Leafs will only move if the deal knocks our socks off (1st rd pick +). Hopefully we can package one of our remaining forwards (Holland, Frattin, Panik) with Robidas or Bozak for a 3rd + prospect + salary dump. Soshnikov, Bailey, Hyman, Leivo, Carrick, Loov, and Percy fill out the roster post deadline. Finish 3rd last despite the good bump in possession stats. MSM crows about how Corsi is flawed.Kadri/JvR, if still around, are traded at the Draft for primo picks. We roll into the Draft with 12 picks and target high ceiling prospects as usual. 2016-17: Nylander, Kapanen, Brown, Leipsic, Loov, Percy make the jump to the NHL. We finish in the bottom 5 and draft accordingly. Big trades: Gardiner (for a good pick +) and Bozak (for a song). Rielly is re-upped for $6M+/6yrs. Marner takes over 1C on the Marlies a third into the season.2017-18:Nylander starting to separate himself from the pack, and taking Kapanen and Brown along for the ride. Gauthier, Marner, Johnson make the jump and the Leafs are now possession fiends up and down the lineup, led from the backend by Rielly and Marincin. They make a good run at the playoffs but ultimately fall short by 2 spots.2018-19:Yeah, it starting to get lively on the bandwagon. Playoffs! A second round exit to the Lightning is nothing to be ashamed of though.2019-20:Those sleeper picks from the latter rounds of 2015 and 2016 wake up and hit the NHL. We swing for the fence July 1st for a 30G power forward and go to town on our division rivals.Core: Nylander, Rielly, Marner, MatthewsSupporting: Marincin, Dermott, Timashov, Gauthier, Brown
So we'll have 3 elite, young players still on their ELC in him, Marner and Nylander. We'll have a 23-year old Morgan Rielly entering his 5th NHL season who could very well be a legitimate top pairing NHL defenceman by that point. We could have 27-year old versions of Kadri and Gardiner and a 28-year old version of JVR who would all likely be guys in between 1st and 2nd line status. And that's just what I'm pretty confident in.
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on September 09, 2015, 04:24:33 PMSo we'll have 3 elite, young players still on their ELC in him, Marner and Nylander. We'll have a 23-year old Morgan Rielly entering his 5th NHL season who could very well be a legitimate top pairing NHL defenceman by that point. We could have 27-year old versions of Kadri and Gardiner and a 28-year old version of JVR who would all likely be guys in between 1st and 2nd line status. And that's just what I'm pretty confident in.Honest question. Let's say you gave a random team the 8th, 5th, 4th and, say, 2nd pick over a five year stretch. Wouldn't you say that that team drafting an elite player with all four of those draft picks would rank up there with the best stretches of drafting in NHL history?
Honest question. Let's say you gave a random team the 8th, 5th, 4th and, say, 2nd pick over a five year stretch. Wouldn't you say that that team drafting an elite player with all four of those draft picks would rank up there with the best stretches of drafting in NHL history?
Maybe elite wasn't the right word, maybe I don't define an elite player the same way others do. I don't think of course that all 4 are going to be top-10 players in their respective positions, but I do think that at this point it's reasonable to project them as good top-line/pairing players. Maybe I'm being over-optimistic but I really think that we nailed our recent picks, Nylander and Marner in particular. Some people had Nylander going significantly higher in his draft, he was as much of a steal as you can get when drafting 8th overall in my opinion. And Strome and Marner would have likely been challenging for 1st overall if it wasn't for having generational guys in their same draft year. I mean I get what your'e saying, there's a chance one or two don't pan out, Rielly's the only one whose actually played an NHL game so far, but I'm not going to sour on their upside until they give me a reason to.As for your historic question, I guess it would be up there, yeah. But I think that if any team had that many high picks for that long they'd be saying the same thing. Pittsburgh had 5-straight top-5 picks and went Whitney, Fleury, Malkin, Crosby, Staal. I'd obviously take that group over Toronto's hypothetical group considering Crosby and Malkin tower over everyone else. Chicago went Seabrook, Barker, Skille, Toews, and Kane in a 5-year stretch. Barker and Skille were obviously busts, but Toews > Marner and Kane > Nylander so again you could argue quality over quantity there. Florida had a stretch of Gudbranson-Huberdeau-Barkov-Ekblad in 5 years. Yeah, I'd take the Leafs over them there. Edmonton had a 6-year run of Hall, RNH, Yakupov, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid. Without McDavid I'd only give the Leafs a slight edge, with McDavid the Oilers take it.So of the 5 teams that have had a draft stretch like that in the past while I'd rank Toronto's group 3rd, maybe 4th depending on the window we're looking at for Edmonton.
But, honestly, it's not even that which presents the greatest question mark. It seems to me that your scenario not only doesn't allow for a situation where any of the Leafs draft picks end up being significant disappointments, it doesn't really even allow for a situation where any of the Leafs draft picks have a sort of Ryan Johansen-esque journey to being a top player where they take a couple of years to contribute in a meaningful way.
I guess it was a little unclear with how I phrased something in my Year 3 paragraph, but I don't think it'll be until Year 4 when Marner/Nylander/2016 when they really take over the team. By then Marner and Nylander will be in the 3rd year of their ELC, 2016 guy in his 2nd. I think that having some success while these guys are on ELCs is pretty key and not completely unrealistic.
I think that they'll have good rookie seasons in Year 2, but nothing extraordinary for top rookies their age. And I think that we have good reason to think that they'll be better than a Ryan Johansen for instance. Nylander will have 2 years of professional experience where he was the top player on his team. Marner doubled Johansen's point output in their draft years and will likely crush his draft+1 season too. At the same age they were better players than Johansen.