Author Topic: Moving forward  (Read 6788 times)

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Offline AvroArrow

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2015, 11:35:27 AM »
Trade it all except Reilly and Nylander.  Do everything possible to extract 2015 1st round picks.

Offline slapshot

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2015, 12:56:41 PM »

I really don't see how either Lupul or Bozak would return "significant assets" at this point.
If Franson and Santo can bring back a 1st round pick and prospect, surely Lupul and Bozak can bring a fair bit more than that. There is always the odd team that will overpay. Some teams will look at the Leafs situation and say these guys will play better with a change of scenery. There are teams that the salary they bring won't really matter that much. And, just getting their salaries off the Leaf's books is a significant asset in terms of flexibility moving forward.

Offline slapshot

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2015, 12:58:07 PM »

I really don't see how either Lupul or Bozak would return "significant assets" at this point.

NIK

that is just his opinion. Bozak is a cap friend contract for a player with 40+ pts. I take a pick for Lupul (I like his play when not injured) IMO I think Kadri, Gardiner and Bernier will all be gone too.
Thank you, though I disagree at least at this moment about Kadri, Gardiner and Bernier. I think they'll all be back and whether they stay or not will depend on the kind of years they have next season and beyond.

Offline L K

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #18 on: April 11, 2015, 01:01:09 PM »
Lupul has 83 points over the last 3 years.  "When healthy" is a statement you can make about a guy who has the odd injury, not a guy who is chronically injured.  Lupul is a bad defensive player who isn't in the lineup often enough to be worth much of anything and his cap hit isn't insignificant.  Every time he misses 5-8 games and doesn't give your team a LTIR exemption he just eats away at cap space.

Offline slapshot

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #19 on: April 11, 2015, 01:02:04 PM »

In a package deal, surely they could return something worthwhile.

What I fear is that the core players will not be traded until after the draft, and therefore, the draft picks will be 2016 ones.  That puts us back a whole year on our rebuild!

I want as many 2015 draft picks for our core players as possible.
I concur, we are all anxious to get better as soon as possible. But we still have to get the best deal possible whether this year or next. Hopefully they can get some good stuff done before the draft. But more important to do it right.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2015, 01:06:53 PM by slapshot »

Offline TDotMassive

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #20 on: April 11, 2015, 01:03:17 PM »

I really don't see how either Lupul or Bozak would return "significant assets" at this point.

NIK

that is just his opinion. Bozak is a cap friend contract for a player with 40+ pts. I take a pick for Lupul (I like his play when not injured) IMO I think Kadri, Gardiner and Bernier will all be gone too.
Thank you, though I disagree at least at this moment about Kadri, Gardiner and Bernier. I think they'll all be back and whether they stay or not will depend on the kind of years they have next season and beyond.

Bernier has got to go while he still has value.  He's too old already for the next wave of rebuild, Reimer is more than an adequate starter for the next couple of seasons.  We should be able to get a decent return for Bernier, therefore he should be shipped as getting as many real picks/prospects for the team this year and next is paramount.

Offline Nik

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #21 on: April 11, 2015, 01:15:56 PM »
If Franson and Santo can bring back a 1st round pick and prospect, surely Lupul and Bozak can bring a fair bit more than that.

Franson and Santorelli were short term rentals having good seasons. Lupul and Bozak have considerable term on their deals and are coming off bad seasons. They're in entirely different situations and ones that aren't flattering to either of them. 

Bozak's an especially bad one because no team in their right mind would trade for him and make him their #1 centre and yet basically anything good you could say about him at this point would rely on point totals that are entirely conditional on his being a #1 centre.

If they had value then, no, "just getting their salaries off the books" wouldn't be a significant asset. That you recognize that their contracts stink is exactly why the Leafs would be lucky to give them away.
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Offline slapshot

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #22 on: April 11, 2015, 01:16:51 PM »
No one really knows how long this "rebuild" is going to take. It depends on what happens and at what level that gets to...

1. Just making the playoffs
2. Making the playoffs and being competitive, winning some rounds
3. Being a perennial contender

If we're looking at just level 1 for starters that could happen relatively quickly, with a young team that can be built upon. Just look at Calgary or Ottawa. Who would have thought either would be making the playoffs or that guys like Gaudreau or Stone would be making such an impact so quickly. That could happen with Nylander and/or Connor Brown. Not saying it will but it might. If they are unable to offload Kessel and Phanuef they could likewise bring in some pieces that might surprise. Bernier might be just coming into his prime now and have a great year next year, we don't know. As far as them being a perennial cup contender, yes I agree that is a few years off if they get it altogether but how long no one really knows???

Offline slapshot

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #23 on: April 11, 2015, 01:31:47 PM »
If Franson and Santo can bring back a 1st round pick and prospect, surely Lupul and Bozak can bring a fair bit more than that.

Franson and Santorelli were short term rentals having good seasons. Lupul and Bozak have considerable term on their deals and are coming off bad seasons. They're in entirely different situations and ones that aren't flattering to either of them. 

Bozak's an especially bad one because no team in their right mind would trade for him and make him their #1 centre and yet basically anything good you could say about him at this point would rely on point totals that are entirely conditional on his being a #1 centre.

If they had value then, no, "just getting their salaries off the books" wouldn't be a significant asset. That you recognize that their contracts stink is exactly why the Leafs would be lucky to give them away.
No one is suggesting anyone would trade for Bozak as a "number 1 centre." But his contract is not out of line with second line centres. Granted Bozak has stunk down the stretch but he is decent on face-offs, kills penalties and may play better under a different system with different linemates (or maybe not). But I think he will be perceived better around the league than you think. And, teams are sometimes more interested in a guy under contract at the reasonable amount than a short-term rental.
As for Lupul, I agree he will be a harder sell, but just being able to move him and lose the contract is significant. Did anyone not think moving Clarkson was significant? If not, why did Twitter blow up when he got dealt? Getting $5 million in extra cap space is nothing to sneeze at, whether it be Clarkson or Lupul. Only time will tell how this all washes out.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2015, 01:35:19 PM by slapshot »

Offline Nik

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #24 on: April 11, 2015, 02:37:09 PM »
No one is suggesting anyone would trade for Bozak as a "number 1 centre." But his contract is not out of line with second line centres. Granted Bozak has stunk down the stretch but he is decent on face-offs, kills penalties and may play better under a different system with different linemates (or maybe not).

For starters, Bozak isn't really a penalty killer. He's averaging about 30 seconds of SH time a night on a not very good PK unit. He's got very little value as a defensive player.

But more to the point while his contract isn't out of line for a second line centre, his production is nowhere near at the level of a good second line centre and the impression that it is is an illusion created by playing with top line quality linemates and an abundance of playing time. A reasonable team will almost certainly pair him with worse linemates, not better ones and his production, which is already fairly anemic, will almost certainly drop.

As for Lupul, I agree he will be a harder sell, but just being able to move him and lose the contract is significant.

Sure, that's why I said the Leafs would be lucky to give him away. It's more likely, though, that they'd have to take back money.
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Offline slapshot

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #25 on: April 11, 2015, 02:56:14 PM »
No one is suggesting anyone would trade for Bozak as a "number 1 centre." But his contract is not out of line with second line centres. Granted Bozak has stunk down the stretch but he is decent on face-offs, kills penalties and may play better under a different system with different linemates (or maybe not).

For starters, Bozak isn't really a penalty killer. He's averaging about 30 seconds of SH time a night on a not very good PK unit. He's got very little value as a defensive player.

But more to the point while his contract isn't out of line for a second line centre, his production is nowhere near at the level of a good second line centre and the impression that it is is an illusion created by playing with top line quality linemates and an abundance of playing time. A reasonable team will almost certainly pair him with worse linemates, not better ones and his production, which is already fairly anemic, will almost certainly drop.

As for Lupul, I agree he will be a harder sell, but just being able to move him and lose the contract is significant.

Sure, that's why I said the Leafs would be lucky to give him away. It's more likely, though, that they'd have to take back money.

On Bozak, teams with a good 2nd line centre aren't the ones that would be trading for him. When Bozak was signed last year, most people thought the Leafs got him at a fair price. All I am saying is that I don't think he's perceived around the league as badly as you think and we may still get a decent return for him.

On Lupul, taking money back is just speculation.

Offline Nik

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #26 on: April 11, 2015, 03:09:38 PM »
On Bozak, teams with a good 2nd line centre aren't the ones that would be trading for him. When Bozak was signed last year, most people thought the Leafs got him at a fair price. All I am saying is that I don't think he's perceived around the league as badly as you think and we may still get a decent return for him.

Bozak wasn't signed last year. He was signed two years ago and there was a ton of criticism on this board, as well as elsewhere, about the decision to re-sign him.

And the teams without good second line centres will still want a good second line centre. If they don't have one in their system, they're not going to trade valuable assets to get a bad second line centre. Basically, your whole argument for getting something of significance for Bozak hinges on another team making a trade that you're basically admitting wouldn't really be in their interest. You're hoping a team makes a mistake on him. It's a nice thing to hope but it doesn't really reflect on what his actual value is based on his play the last few seasons.

On Lupul, taking money back is just speculation.

It is, that's why I used the word "likely".
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Offline slapshot

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #27 on: April 11, 2015, 04:10:42 PM »
On Bozak, teams with a good 2nd line centre aren't the ones that would be trading for him. When Bozak was signed last year, most people thought the Leafs got him at a fair price. All I am saying is that I don't think he's perceived around the league as badly as you think and we may still get a decent return for him.

Bozak wasn't signed last year. He was signed two years ago and there was a ton of criticism on this board, as well as elsewhere, about the decision to re-sign him.

And the teams without good second line centres will still want a good second line centre. If they don't have one in their system, they're not going to trade valuable assets to get a bad second line centre. Basically, your whole argument for getting something of significance for Bozak hinges on another team making a trade that you're basically admitting wouldn't really be in their interest. You're hoping a team makes a mistake on him. It's a nice thing to hope but it doesn't really reflect on what his actual value is based on his play the last few seasons.

I'm not saying there's a team looking for a "bad" second line centre. I'm saying a team that already has a good one wouldn't be looking for one, so were talking about a team that would see Bozak as an upgrade on what they have at second line right now. Ok, 2 seasons ago, excuse me, regardless, you know what I meant.
And, I not trying to make an "argument," I am only offering an "opinion." I highly doubt teams make trades they don't think is in their best interests. We'll see what Bozak fetches and then people can say whether they think the Leafs made a good deal for him or not.

Offline Nik

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #28 on: April 11, 2015, 04:32:12 PM »
I'm saying a team that already has a good one wouldn't be looking for one, so were talking about a team that would see Bozak as an upgrade on what they have at second line right now..

And a team that isn't patient enough to develop a better one. That's the paradox that renders this all pointless. Either a team would be patient enough to develop a better fit for the position than Bozak or they wouldn't see Bozak as a legitimate solution to whatever goals they were impatient to achieve.

It's certainly not the sort of thing a team will pay heavily for.
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Offline caveman

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Re: Moving forward
« Reply #29 on: April 11, 2015, 04:38:45 PM »
Any thoughts on keeping Brewer as a mentor for the kids ? Or is Robidas the guy for that job ?