Author Topic: Phaneuf being shopped  (Read 20733 times)

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losveratos

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #45 on: May 13, 2014, 06:18:21 AM »

I think it's pretty telling that most people who are Phaneuf advocates aren't even entertaining the possibility that trading him could yield a really terrific return for the Leafs.

While I'm not an advocate for Phaneuf, the reason I think it won't yield a terrific return is because we'd be the quarter in this trade. As in 3 dimes for a quater. I like those trade when we get the quarter. That's the team that generally has the best result.

I think about it this way. In order to "win" the trade if you get the multiple pieces, either a) one of the players steps up significantly b) you wait the extra seasons to have a rookie you got reach their prime or c) the quarter you traded sucks on the new team and your results weren't terrible.

To win as the other team though... much easier as your piece received is usually currently better than every piece you traded individually and even if they don't beat expectations and just meet them you still usually ended up with the best player of the bunch. You also didn't have to wait for it to come to fruition as the player is usually already in their prime or just starting to pass it.

I'd 10x prefer to package our quarter and a few more nickels and dimes for a half dollar or something (the analogy is stretching a bit thin at this point). But that's just my thoughts on the matter. Maybe I'd be happy with a few more dimes on the team than I am now with Phaneuf. But change for changes sake just doesn't seem right to me. I want upgrades dammit. Burke promised me :'(

/rant

Offline Optimus Reimer

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #46 on: May 13, 2014, 09:07:42 AM »
I was a huge Phaneuf critic, but I honestly thought he played great last season.  Along with a large number of posters I believe the problem was Carlyle's defensive system or a lack of a defensive system.  I am not sure what the Leafs could get in return but I would like to see a #1 defenseman or a pick and a bona fide prospect come back this way.

What would be interesting is if indeed Kadri, Gardiner and Reimer were not in Carlyle's plan to return is if a package of players were shipped out.  Perhaps Nonis could acquire players that would fit better into Carlyle's system and at the same time acquire a #1 centre, 2 reliable defenseman and a back up to Bernier.

Offline Brian Glennie

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #47 on: May 13, 2014, 09:18:50 AM »
How do you market Phaneuf in a trade discussion? It's a tough pitch to say he's going to provide leadership and defensive stability to a young team and he's not exactly a fan favorite so it's not like he's going to help you sell a lot of jerseys or anything. So then you're stuck trying to convince a rival GM that Dion's worth $7M a year to be part of his supporting cast but even then how happy is he going to be as a #3-4?

I hope I'm completely wrong as usual but I don't think Phaneuf's going anywhere for a long, long time.

Offline Andy

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #48 on: May 13, 2014, 09:31:50 AM »
I was a huge Phaneuf critic, but I honestly thought he played great last season.  Along with a large number of posters I believe the problem was Carlyle's defensive system or a lack of a defensive system.  I am not sure what the Leafs could get in return but I would like to see a #1 defenseman or a pick and a bona fide prospect come back this way.

What would be interesting is if indeed Kadri, Gardiner and Reimer were not in Carlyle's plan to return is if a package of players were shipped out.  Perhaps Nonis could acquire players that would fit better into Carlyle's system and at the same time acquire a #1 centre, 2 reliable defenseman and a back up to Bernier.

So you are saying that Carlyle's system (or lack thereof) was a major problem last year yet advocate trading two of the team's top young assets for players to fit the same problematic system?

Offline Potvin29

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #49 on: May 13, 2014, 09:34:29 AM »
Mirtle's take on the trade rumours:

Quote
As with most of the teams that missed the playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators are both seeking a shakeup.

But what they really need is some clarity about what they’re trying to be.

That’s been an issue for roughly the last decade for the Leafs. More than five years after former general manager Brian Burke pronounced he didn’t want to be part of a five-year rebuild, no one seems to have an answer as to whether this team is working to contend now or years down the road, an essential question when it comes to Phaneuf.

How exactly would moving the team’s top minute-eating defenceman put them further ahead in the near term, especially if the Leafs have to retain salary – for the next seven (!) years – in the deal?

While cap space is nice, there’s little available to use it on in free agency to replace Phaneuf. And whatever return they get would likely be more of the futures variety, which is fine if a rebuild is the direction new president Brendan Shanahan and Co. intend to go.

In that case, the teardown will need to go well beyond Phaneuf, and dealing young players Nazem Kadri and Jake Gardiner – two other Leafs in the rumour mill of late – would make even less sense than the little it does already.

Whether Phaneuf stays or goes, Toronto’s brass have to pick a path here instead of trying to dance in two directions, making changes for the sake of changes and signing veteran players to long-term deals months before contemplating moving and/or buying them out.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/mirtle-leafs-sens-at-a-crossroads-with-their-captains/article18631491/

Offline Optimus Reimer

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #50 on: May 13, 2014, 09:47:31 AM »
I was a huge Phaneuf critic, but I honestly thought he played great last season.  Along with a large number of posters I believe the problem was Carlyle's defensive system or a lack of a defensive system.  I am not sure what the Leafs could get in return but I would like to see a #1 defenseman or a pick and a bona fide prospect come back this way.

What would be interesting is if indeed Kadri, Gardiner and Reimer were not in Carlyle's plan to return is if a package of players were shipped out.  Perhaps Nonis could acquire players that would fit better into Carlyle's system and at the same time acquire a #1 centre, 2 reliable defenseman and a back up to Bernier.

So you are saying that Carlyle's system (or lack thereof) was a major problem last year yet advocate trading two of the team's top young assets for players to fit the same problematic system?

What I am saying is that yes the problem was Carlyle's system (whatever that was).  Since Carlyle is returning, it offers Nonis and Carlyle the opportunity to ship out the pieces that did not fit into Carlyle's system, and if Nonis knows what that system is, the players he acquires may be able to play in that system. 

But yes, I do believe Carlyle's system is flawed so whoever comes to the Leafs via trade will have to play under that system so nothing will change, just the names on the back of the jerseys.

Online L K

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #51 on: May 13, 2014, 09:49:12 AM »
So Phaneuf for Spezza.

Offline Potvin29

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #52 on: May 13, 2014, 10:00:11 AM »
How do you market Phaneuf in a trade discussion? It's a tough pitch to say he's going to provide leadership and defensive stability to a young team and he's not exactly a fan favorite so it's not like he's going to help you sell a lot of jerseys or anything. So then you're stuck trying to convince a rival GM that Dion's worth $7M a year to be part of his supporting cast but even then how happy is he going to be as a #3-4?

I hope I'm completely wrong as usual but I don't think Phaneuf's going anywhere for a long, long time.

They're not perfect comparables, but someone like Brian Campbell was dealt with a $7.1 million cap hit in 2011 when the cap was $64.3 million (had less years remaining, but was older too).  Next season the cap will be $69-70 million, and will keep rising.  There will probably always be some team who would be willing to take his deal, as he can still provide offensive production from the back-end.

But it's hard to say for sure until it happens or doesn't, of course.

Offline Optimus Reimer

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #53 on: May 13, 2014, 10:19:11 AM »
So Phaneuf for Spezza.

To be honest with you Phaneuf is a better defenseman than Spezza is forward.  Sure Spezza can score, but he is a turnover machine and his idea of back checking is to make sure the players on the ice do have backs.

Offline A Weekend at Bernier's

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #54 on: May 13, 2014, 10:58:41 AM »
How do you market Phaneuf in a trade discussion? It's a tough pitch to say he's going to provide leadership and defensive stability to a young team and he's not exactly a fan favorite so it's not like he's going to help you sell a lot of jerseys or anything. So then you're stuck trying to convince a rival GM that Dion's worth $7M a year to be part of his supporting cast but even then how happy is he going to be as a #3-4?

I hope I'm completely wrong as usual but I don't think Phaneuf's going anywhere for a long, long time.

They're not perfect comparables, but someone like Brian Campbell was dealt with a $7.1 million cap hit in 2011 when the cap was $64.3 million (had less years remaining, but was older too).  Next season the cap will be $69-70 million, and will keep rising.  There will probably always be some team who would be willing to take his deal, as he can still provide offensive production from the back-end.

But it's hard to say for sure until it happens or doesn't, of course.

You're bang on, Potvin.  I've made this point before, but for crying out loud Scott Gomez netted the Rangers Ryan McDonagh and Chris Higgins in 2009.  Phaneuf is a very good NHL defenseman who does a lot of things well.  I think the Leafs will get a decent return for him if / when he's traded.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2014, 11:14:56 AM by A Weekend at Bernier's »

Offline Potvin29

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #55 on: May 13, 2014, 11:07:26 AM »
How do you market Phaneuf in a trade discussion? It's a tough pitch to say he's going to provide leadership and defensive stability to a young team and he's not exactly a fan favorite so it's not like he's going to help you sell a lot of jerseys or anything. So then you're stuck trying to convince a rival GM that Dion's worth $7M a year to be part of his supporting cast but even then how happy is he going to be as a #3-4?

I hope I'm completely wrong as usual but I don't think Phaneuf's going anywhere for a long, long time.

They're not perfect comparables, but someone like Brian Campbell was dealt with a $7.1 million cap hit in 2011 when the cap was $64.3 million (had less years remaining, but was older too).  Next season the cap will be $69-70 million, and will keep rising.  There will probably always be some team who would be willing to take his deal, as he can still provide offensive production from the back-end.

But it's hard to say for sure until it happens or doesn't, of course.

You're nag on, Potvin.  I've made this point before, but for crying out loud Scott Gomez netted the Rangers Ryan McDonagh and Chris Higgins in 2009.  Phaneuf is a very good NHL defenseman who does a lot of things well.  I think the Leafs will get a decent return for him if / when he's traded.

And as Mirtle (and now Friedman on the radio) points out, by signing him the Leafs will get a better return than if they were to have dealt him as a pending UFA, or let him walk for nothing.  Maybe the cap space isn't nothing, but since I and others think he can be dealt it's probably better to obtain better value for him by going this route.

If that is what they are trying to do.

Also this is a good article that highlights the potential impact Carlyle and the assistants' coaching philosophy has had on Phaneuf's production: http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2014/03/28/the-decline-of-dion-phaneuf/

The heat maps are especially cool IMO.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2014, 11:14:25 AM by Potvin29 »

Offline Brian Glennie

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #56 on: May 13, 2014, 12:14:56 PM »
How do you market Phaneuf in a trade discussion? It's a tough pitch to say he's going to provide leadership and defensive stability to a young team and he's not exactly a fan favorite so it's not like he's going to help you sell a lot of jerseys or anything. So then you're stuck trying to convince a rival GM that Dion's worth $7M a year to be part of his supporting cast but even then how happy is he going to be as a #3-4?

I hope I'm completely wrong as usual but I don't think Phaneuf's going anywhere for a long, long time.

They're not perfect comparables, but someone like Brian Campbell was dealt with a $7.1 million cap hit in 2011 when the cap was $64.3 million (had less years remaining, but was older too).  Next season the cap will be $69-70 million, and will keep rising.  There will probably always be some team who would be willing to take his deal, as he can still provide offensive production from the back-end.

But it's hard to say for sure until it happens or doesn't, of course.

Like you said, it's not a perfect comparison but at least Campbell had won a Cup with Chicago the year before he was traded whereas after ten years in the league, Dion's never played on a team that even made it to the 2nd round.

Offline mc

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #57 on: May 13, 2014, 12:16:35 PM »
Calgary, Florida and San Jose. I see those as likely destinations.

Online louisstamos

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #58 on: May 13, 2014, 12:23:12 PM »
Calgary, Florida and San Jose. I see those as likely destinations.


Offline Potvin29

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Re: Phaneuf being shopped
« Reply #59 on: May 13, 2014, 12:28:50 PM »
How do you market Phaneuf in a trade discussion? It's a tough pitch to say he's going to provide leadership and defensive stability to a young team and he's not exactly a fan favorite so it's not like he's going to help you sell a lot of jerseys or anything. So then you're stuck trying to convince a rival GM that Dion's worth $7M a year to be part of his supporting cast but even then how happy is he going to be as a #3-4?

I hope I'm completely wrong as usual but I don't think Phaneuf's going anywhere for a long, long time.

They're not perfect comparables, but someone like Brian Campbell was dealt with a $7.1 million cap hit in 2011 when the cap was $64.3 million (had less years remaining, but was older too).  Next season the cap will be $69-70 million, and will keep rising.  There will probably always be some team who would be willing to take his deal, as he can still provide offensive production from the back-end.

But it's hard to say for sure until it happens or doesn't, of course.

Like you said, it's not a perfect comparison but at least Campbell had won a Cup with Chicago the year before he was traded whereas after ten years in the league, Dion's never played on a team that even made it to the 2nd round.

Maybe it's what you meant, but it was the 09-10 season they won and the 2011 draft he was dealt at, so 2 seasons prior.  And he was basically their 4th defenseman when they won that Cup, nevermind the idea that it should make much difference whether you happen to be on a great team like he was.  Don't think he's the difference so the fact he was on the team shouldn't make much difference either.

I'm sure there are other examples, that's just the initial one that comes to mind.