Kessel's going to be pretty good for a few years but in the latter part of his contract, I think his lack of fitness will catch up to him.
You need to be careful about how strongly you buy into media generated narratives. At training camp last season, Kessel earned some of the highest ratings in fitness testing. His perceived "lack of fitness" is entirely based on him having a rounder face and some offhand remarks he made about not skating much last summer - not "not training," just not skating.
This is a long standing issue with Kessel because, in large part, of Kessel.
His draft combine performance - no media was making that stuff up - those were test results. Kessel and his agent didn't dispute the account.
In Boston, he was praised one preseason for showing up in shape ... because previously he hadn't. Everyone happened to notice the difference.
Stupid remarks to the media like "skated 10 times maybe all summer" haven't helped his cause - that's self inflicted mismanaging perceptions.
Yes, he does look chubby and it's beyond his face. There have been a number of unflattering photos that do not demonstrate a truly lean, athletic physique
How many times have we seen him winded - or dragging his ass getting back?
Carlyle had some remarks about Bozak and Kessel not doing the work they should to recover from their injuries.
Media and others observing he's often the last on the ice and first off it at practice
Nonis remarked that some of his fitness testing was very good but other testing wasn't.
One hockey strength and conditioning coach remarked that at some point in his life, Phil had done fitness work to develop the strength that he has ... but he didn't go on to describe Phil's maintenance of that level - his tone was like it was a thing in his past.
Ever hear of the expression "where there's smoke, there's fire" ? Kessel's been smoking for a long, long time in this area. He can't be in absolutely terrible shape or he couldn't play the game blowing past dmen. That's clear. But all you have to do is look beyond his chubby face to see that this $8 mil per year athlete isn't exactly tuckering himself out to be a fit as he can be. It will shorten his career - you have to work harder as you age to sustain a hockey career.
And that is the knock on the player: he's very talented and skilled but he's limited in how much he's willing to put out. That was identified at his draft. Identified by Boston. Identified by Wilson ("uncoachable"). And it's basically been identified by the Leafs who effectively dumped a $8 mil/yr "franchise player" for a pretty poor return.
The fact the media has reported this stuff for years cannot be merely dismissed as a media thing because of the various cities - not one media outlet, because some of it is based on test results, some of it is based on the observations of others in the sport, etc.
No, Phil earned this criticism largely by himself. The teams that got him, they're not hanging on to him like he's a precious talent like Crosby, Stamkos and the other franchise players. They're dumping him .. for a declining return.