Author Topic: Mitch Marner: what now?  (Read 79898 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline LuncheonMeat

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 1882
  • Reverse Tank!!!
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #30 on: April 27, 2019, 11:30:08 AM »
Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."

I agree, I think goals top the list for what earns the big bucks, all else being equal. And in this case, it's not really close. Plus, center vs. winger turns the dial even more.

Goals/60:

Auston Matthews
2016/17:  1.7
2017/18:  1.8
2018/19:  1.8

Mitch Marner
2016/17:  0.9
2017/18:  1.0
2018/19:  1.0

Edit: And I think if Matthews plays with a winger like Marner, or even Nylander, that G/60 easily tops 2.0. If Marner plays with Matthews, I'm not sure his G/60 changes, or his assists for that matter.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2019, 11:32:56 AM by LuncheonMeat »
“How many people from Ontario play in the National Hockey League? Once we make it safe, they’re coming home. Mark my words, they’ll be coming.”
~ Mike Bacock, in an open letter to Steven Stamkos Drew Doughty John Tavares

Offline Guilt Trip

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 8711
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #31 on: April 27, 2019, 03:09:24 PM »
Matthews wasn't on the ice for 13 goals this postseason.

Is that 5 on 5 only, or penalty kill, which Matthews doesn't play?
That was total. 9 at EV. The 6-4 loss was the really bad game for the JT line. JT was on for 4, Marner 5 and Hyman was on for all 6 against. It's unfortunate that the line struggled and that he an Hyman weren't good on the PK. Fact is the PK wasn't good since Nov so.

Offline Guilt Trip

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 8711
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #32 on: April 27, 2019, 10:34:49 PM »
Kypreos spewing his crap about the offer needs to be on par with. Matthews or Marner's going to July 1 to see what's out there. I'm sure Paul told him that.

Offline disco

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 2843
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #33 on: April 28, 2019, 03:53:44 PM »
I'm thinking it'll be less than Auston/JT, we'll see how much. Duration: probably a bridge, maybe a year of free-agency. Bottom line, going to July 1st/offer sheet territory, it won't happen. If it gets to the eleventh hour Mitchy will call, same as Willy and say let's do it. There's no way this guy is not playing for his Toronto Maple Leafs moving forward.

Offline Guilt Trip

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 8711
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #34 on: April 28, 2019, 03:57:10 PM »
I'm thinking it'll be less than Auston/JT but not by much. Duration, probably a bridge, maybe a year of free-agency. Bottom line, going to July 1st/offer sheet territory, it won't happen. If it gets to the eleventh hour Mitchy will call, same as Willy and say let's do it. There's no way this guy is not playing for his Toronto Maple Leafs moving forward.
Offer sheet territory means absolutely nothing unless Mitch signs it. I don't see a bridge deal here. If Marner gets anywhere close to 11 mill it will be for the full 8 years.

Offline L K

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 12743
    • View Profile
Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #35 on: April 30, 2019, 06:32:40 PM »
For all the talk about the Toronto tax, how many Toronto-centric ads does Steven Stamkos have.  Prior to this year, how many did John Tavares have?

As much as the tax comes into play I think for lesser players, Marner is making a killing in endorsements that he just wouldn't be getting if he was playing in Carolina or Florida or even places like Chicago/New York/etc.  That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.  Yes, Marner still has to go out and do work to get that income and not everyone takes advantage of it, but it really should be a factor in negotiations.

Offline Nik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 28606
  • Not liking my posts is Cancel Culture
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #36 on: April 30, 2019, 06:40:35 PM »
For all the talk about the Toronto tax, how many Toronto-centric ads does Steven Stamkos have.  Prior to this year, how many did John Tavares have?

As much as the tax comes into play I think for lesser players, Marner is making a killing in endorsements that he just wouldn't be getting if he was playing in Carolina or Florida or even places like Chicago/New York/etc.  That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.  Yes, Marner still has to go out and do work to get that income and not everyone takes advantage of it, but it really should be a factor in negotiations.

Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

Forbes' list of the highest paid hockey players really only has Ovechkin, Crosby and McDavid making huge amounts of money in endorsements:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#69849c1b5871

Basically, in order for a significant discount to be based on off-ice earnings Marner would have to establish himself as an MVP level player. Whether or not that's in the cards for him, McDavid's earnings suggest that it would be in the cards wherever Marner would play so I doubt a good agent would take it seriously as a factor in negotiations with the Leafs.
Sports are like the reward of a functioning society
- Sean Doolittle

Offline louisstamos

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 1810
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Diamond Weapon
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #37 on: April 30, 2019, 07:35:10 PM »
For all the talk about the Toronto tax, how many Toronto-centric ads does Steven Stamkos have.  Prior to this year, how many did John Tavares have?

As much as the tax comes into play I think for lesser players, Marner is making a killing in endorsements that he just wouldn't be getting if he was playing in Carolina or Florida or even places like Chicago/New York/etc.  That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.  Yes, Marner still has to go out and do work to get that income and not everyone takes advantage of it, but it really should be a factor in negotiations.

Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

Forbes' list of the highest paid hockey players really only has Ovechkin, Crosby and McDavid making huge amounts of money in endorsements:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#69849c1b5871

Basically, in order for a significant discount to be based on off-ice earnings Marner would have to establish himself as an MVP level player. Whether or not that's in the cards for him, McDavid's earnings suggest that it would be in the cards wherever Marner would play so I doubt a good agent would take it seriously as a factor in negotiations with the Leafs.

It may not be the same level of money on the other's endorsements, but I imagine Mitch Marner is definitely the leader on the Leafs.  He has Intact Insurance, Mastercard, and Apple (I guess via Auston Matthews).  He also has a deal with True Hockey to sell his signature stick.  He's certainly making a *bit* of coin from the outside, even if it's mostly from local advertising.

Online Highlander

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 7741
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #38 on: April 30, 2019, 07:57:13 PM »
It could be adding up to a million plus a year, he wouldn't make anything like that in a non Canadian marketplace.
"In the beginners mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert's there are few"
                                           Sunryn Suzuki

Offline CarltonTheBear

  • Administrator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 30056
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #39 on: April 30, 2019, 08:06:40 PM »
Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

He's been in a ton this season, more than I've seen a Leaf in a long time. He's also been doing a bunch of social media ads as well.

Offline Bill_Berg_is_sad

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 1298
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #40 on: May 01, 2019, 01:28:57 AM »
Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

He's been in a ton this season, more than I've seen a Leaf in a long time. He's also been doing a bunch of social media ads as well.

Marner has his face on cans of red bull and life size,almost, cutouts of him in my local grocery store
 

Offline CarltonTheBear

  • Administrator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 30056
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #41 on: May 01, 2019, 08:35:23 AM »
Marner has his face on cans of red bull and life size,almost, cutouts of him in my local grocery store

Even just looking at his last few instragram posts he's done ads for: Visa, Azzaro Parfums, Good Food, Intact, Red Bull, Beats by Dre, Call of Duty/PS4, Chevrolet, True Hockey.

Offline CarltonTheBear

  • Administrator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 30056
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #42 on: May 01, 2019, 08:39:49 AM »
That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

Offline Zee

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 13557
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #43 on: May 01, 2019, 10:24:49 AM »
That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

Maybe they can sneak that one by Ferris.  "OK guys, here's your $12M contract"*.  They sign.

* - contract stipulates Canadian dollars.

Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 7011
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #44 on: May 01, 2019, 03:21:16 PM »
That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

This coupled with endorsements is why I’d hold firm at 9.5. That’s 12.8 Canadian, probably close to 14 when you factor in endorsements.

That’s life changing money, grandkids life changing money and at a certain point, if he wants to be here he has a decision to make.

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.