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Armchair GM 2021-2022: Catharsis

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herman:
Also they want/need Tavares' intangibles: the stoic professionalism, setting the tone on work rate/effort/development, the corporate-friendly hometown face of the brand. There is no other player out there with that whole package wrapped in elite talent. Sure his cap hit (less than market value) threw a wrench in the internal comparables for Matthews/Marner, but his talent level also helps anchor the young superstars to a particular team culture the way those previous veteran presence dudes could not.

He's Crosby-lite: 4th line grinder style with elite skills that just stacks a lot of little non-flashy good plays that overflows into production on paper. Nylander does a lot of the work to insulate Tavares' shortcomings: speed, NZ transition, presenting a dual shooting/passing option to leverage his strengths, so I'm not super worried about Tavares' transition into older player. Speed was never his calling card and the legs go first with age. The mind, the hands, the butt will find a way.

Nik:

--- Quote from: herman on October 06, 2021, 02:41:14 PM ---Sure his cap hit (less than market value) threw a wrench in the internal comparables for Matthews/Marner

--- End quote ---

I really don't think that was an issue. After McDavid's deal, Matthews was not going to end up getting that much less regardless of Tavares and I think Marner's deal was fairly unconnected too.

The issue is just that, as good as Tavares is, he's still an inefficient use of cap dollars the way most FA's are.

herman:

--- Quote from: Nik on October 06, 2021, 03:24:02 PM ---
--- Quote from: herman on October 06, 2021, 02:41:14 PM ---Sure his cap hit (less than market value) threw a wrench in the internal comparables for Matthews/Marner

--- End quote ---

I really don't think that was an issue. After McDavid's deal, Matthews was not going to end up getting that much less regardless of Tavares and I think Marner's deal was fairly unconnected too.

The issue is just that, as good as Tavares is, he's still an inefficient use of cap dollars the way most FA's are.

--- End quote ---

Oh yeah, McDavid (and to a lesser degree Draisaitl), that was still technically less than what he could have commanded.

I'm pretty okay with being a bit inefficient at the upper end of the performance ladder of the roster, especially with needle movers. Since the big 4 have been paid in full (2 Covid shortened seasons), they represent on average 49.69% of the cap hit, and 51.39% of the goals scored by the team.

Nik:

--- Quote from: herman on October 06, 2021, 03:48:30 PM ---Oh yeah, McDavid (and to a lesser degree Draisaitl), that was still technically less than what he could have commanded.

I'm pretty okay with being a bit inefficient at the upper end of the performance ladder of the roster, especially with needle movers. Since the big 4 have been paid in full (2 Covid shortened seasons), they represent on average 49.69% of the cap hit, and 51.39% of the goals scored by the team.

--- End quote ---

I think having some inefficient deals on the books is manageable so long as you've got the counterweight of guys on low end deals outperforming their contracts to a significant extent and/or a cap that rises to the point that you can work around it. Absent that, you're going to feel a pretty solid pinch as we can see the Leafs already are.

herman:
2019-20202020-2021Cap%deltaG%deltaP%Cap%deltaG%deltaP%Tavares13.50%-2.53%-4.00%13.50%-3.28%-3.92%Matthews14.27%5.56%-1.62%14.28%7.76%-1.64%Marner13.37%-6.61%-2.76%13.38%-2.63%-0.54%Nylander8.54%4.54%0.79%8.54%0.60%-0.50%
Here's the breakdown of production proportion to the team vs cap hit % by differential.

How to read this: in 2020-2021, Matthews scored 41 goals, which was 22.04% of the team's total regular season goals, giving him an excess of 7.76% in goals proportion differential (deltaG%) vs his cap hit proportion.

Net positives for Matthews and Nylander in goals proportion (Spezza would be hilarious by this measure). I've included points, but it's pretty nebulous with the secondary assist factor. Didn't factor in time on ice efficiency (Spezza would be extremely hilarious by this measure).

As a group, the average deltaG% over these two years was 51.39% (G%) - 49.69% (Cap%) = 1.7%; Matthews' goal scoring (hampered by the wrist injury) and to a lesser extent Nylander's, is carrying the value efficiency load by this measure.

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