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2022 NHL Draft Discussion

Started by herman, May 25, 2022, 05:09:21 PM

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Guilt Trip


Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

Quote from: A Weekend at Bernier's on July 07, 2022, 10:37:53 PM
Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 07, 2022, 10:32:21 PM
Quote from: L K on July 07, 2022, 10:15:18 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on July 07, 2022, 10:11:43 PM
Quote from: Zee on July 07, 2022, 10:08:47 PM
We have no goalies now, cool

But now, they might be able afford an upgrade.

They have to. If they dont come out with a legit starter this has to be the end of the Dubas era. 

Ritchie and Mrazek having to be traded away off last season is still an issue for me.  Dubas has mismanaged draft pick assets and it's part of why we have no prospects to fill in gaps in the roster

I basically agree with downtrading to get out from Mrazek but yeah, bottom line is it cost Dubas a 1st to get rid of a bad mistake.  So yeah gunnar36.

But, respectfully, that's not really a fair assessment.  This is not like the Marleau deal where the first is out the door.  As others mentioned, a close second is coming back.  It's fair to feel disappointed, but it's not fair to describe this as costing a first.

First of all, I'm not disappointed.  I posted earlier that this draft, for sure, is a time to trade down.  But it objectively did cost them a first and objectively was done to fix a GM's mistake.

herman

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 07, 2022, 10:38:43 PM
Quote from: herman on July 07, 2022, 10:35:36 PM
If you're familiar with draft pick valuation, 25 to 38 is basically no difference (a little bit more so in this particular draft). If the Leafs get the exact player they wanted to pick anyway, they sacrificed nothing.

If they do, yes.  But how will we know?  It's not like they're going to admit that whoever they take at 38 is not who they wanted.

Look at it from the Chicago side. They ponied up 7.6M in cap dollars (which is the reverse of what Dubas had to do for the Marleau deal... ~ 15th overall), and threw in their relatively high second rounder for the 25th pick to get someone they could've picked at 38 or even later.
"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed

L K

Quote from: herman on July 07, 2022, 10:42:39 PM
Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 07, 2022, 10:38:43 PM
Quote from: herman on July 07, 2022, 10:35:36 PM
If you're familiar with draft pick valuation, 25 to 38 is basically no difference (a little bit more so in this particular draft). If the Leafs get the exact player they wanted to pick anyway, they sacrificed nothing.

If they do, yes.  But how will we know?  It's not like they're going to admit that whoever they take at 38 is not who they wanted.

Look at it from the Chicago side. They ponied up 7.6M in cap dollars (which is the reverse of what Dubas had to do for the Marleau deal... ~ 15th overall), and threw in their relatively high second rounder for the 25th pick to get someone they could've picked at 38 or even later.

Sure but if Dubas didn't swing and miss on Mrazek he also could have traded down and got more than one asset.   It's not as bad of a asset move as Marleau but it's still lost assets to correct a mistake.

herman

"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed



princedpw

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 07, 2022, 10:41:02 PM
Quote from: A Weekend at Bernier's on July 07, 2022, 10:37:53 PM
Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 07, 2022, 10:32:21 PM
Quote from: L K on July 07, 2022, 10:15:18 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on July 07, 2022, 10:11:43 PM
Quote from: Zee on July 07, 2022, 10:08:47 PM
We have no goalies now, cool

But now, they might be able afford an upgrade.

They have to. If they dont come out with a legit starter this has to be the end of the Dubas era. 

Ritchie and Mrazek having to be traded away off last season is still an issue for me.  Dubas has mismanaged draft pick assets and it's part of why we have no prospects to fill in gaps in the roster

I basically agree with downtrading to get out from Mrazek but yeah, bottom line is it cost Dubas a 1st to get rid of a bad mistake.  So yeah gunnar36.

But, respectfully, that's not really a fair assessment.  This is not like the Marleau deal where the first is out the door.  As others mentioned, a close second is coming back.  It's fair to feel disappointed, but it's not fair to describe this as costing a first.

First of all, I'm not disappointed.  I posted earlier that this draft, for sure, is a time to trade down.  But it objectively did cost them a first and objectively was done to fix a GM's mistake.

I kind of view his last off-season holistically.  There were a bunch of gambles: Ritchie, Bunting, Kase, Kampf, Mrazek.  All were uncertain and relatively cheap.  Operating this way means there are going to be some misses and you are going to have to pay to get rid of the misses. As long as the wins - costs to eliminate misses > even we are doing ok. I still think Dubas has done that.

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate


Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

Quote from: princedpw on July 07, 2022, 11:13:02 PM
Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 07, 2022, 10:41:02 PM
Quote from: A Weekend at Bernier's on July 07, 2022, 10:37:53 PM
Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 07, 2022, 10:32:21 PM
Quote from: L K on July 07, 2022, 10:15:18 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on July 07, 2022, 10:11:43 PM
Quote from: Zee on July 07, 2022, 10:08:47 PM
We have no goalies now, cool

But now, they might be able afford an upgrade.

They have to. If they dont come out with a legit starter this has to be the end of the Dubas era. 

Ritchie and Mrazek having to be traded away off last season is still an issue for me.  Dubas has mismanaged draft pick assets and it's part of why we have no prospects to fill in gaps in the roster

I basically agree with downtrading to get out from Mrazek but yeah, bottom line is it cost Dubas a 1st to get rid of a bad mistake.  So yeah gunnar36.

But, respectfully, that's not really a fair assessment.  This is not like the Marleau deal where the first is out the door.  As others mentioned, a close second is coming back.  It's fair to feel disappointed, but it's not fair to describe this as costing a first.

First of all, I'm not disappointed.  I posted earlier that this draft, for sure, is a time to trade down.  But it objectively did cost them a first and objectively was done to fix a GM's mistake.

I kind of view his last off-season holistically.  There were a bunch of gambles: Ritchie, Bunting, Kase, Kampf, Mrazek.  All were uncertain and relatively cheap.  Operating this way means there are going to be some misses and you are going to have to pay to get rid of the misses. As long as the wins - costs to eliminate misses > even we are doing ok. I still think Dubas has done that.

All this is quite reasonable.  Like I said, I am not majorly bent out of shape about this.  I'm just saying let's not celebrate it as some kind of brilliant GMing.

herman

"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed

CarltonTheBear

https://twitter.com/joshuakloke/status/1545243790503514113

Ostlund and Ohgren both went a little earlier than some expected. Del Bel Belluz, Beck, or Firkus would seem like guys on the Leafs' radar for 38.

Bender

Quote from: L K on July 07, 2022, 10:15:18 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on July 07, 2022, 10:11:43 PM
Quote from: Zee on July 07, 2022, 10:08:47 PM
We have no goalies now, cool

But now, they might be able afford an upgrade.

They have to. If they dont come out with a legit starter this has to be the end of the Dubas era. 

Ritchie and Mrazek having to be traded away off last season is still an issue for me.  Dubas has mismanaged draft pick assets and it's part of why we have no prospects to fill in gaps in the roster
100%. Overreaching in the wrong areas and galaxy braining the draft is killing us. They may have squandered Mattews' best years already.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Bender

Quote from: gunnar36 on July 07, 2022, 10:20:02 PM
If Lambert is still available at 38th then I am ok with this trade, but lets be real here, its hard to be excited when your 1st round pick is once again sacrificed to cover up another mistake.
Why are we married to Brad Lambert?
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Nik


Obviously the continuing need to sacrifice draft capital to get out of bad contracts isn't ideal and when you combine it with the outlay of draft capital on deadline deals that haven't proven successful it leads to kind of a lousy spot prospect-wise. It's not a good thing obviously and it re-enforces what I've been saying for a while now. Dubas' drafts need to start looking good. Gems need to start being unearthed.

Otherwise, his argument for holding onto his job starts looking pretty thin. For the amount of resources at his disposal the Leafs should be expecting top-tier performance from the C-Suite. Is there a compelling case to be made he's delivered anywhere? Has he been a wizard at getting guys to re-sign team friendly contracts? No. Has his team construction via trade/UFA signings proven particularly adept? No. So drafting is what he has left. Ordinarily I'm very much of the "Don't fire someone just to fire them. Only fire them if you can make the case that the replacement is better" but if Dubas seems determined to prove himself a C student then at some point you just accept that's what he is and you're probably better off turning to another bright young unknown and see if he can show up with a slightly more impressive report card.

That said, we should keep this move in perspective. It didn't "cost the Leafs a 1st round pick". Moving from 25 to 38, realistically, could maybe be assumed to net a team a high 3rd or maybe very low 2nd. That's the cost here. To say otherwise is a bit like saying that trading a 20 dollar bill for a 10 and a 5 cost you twenty bucks. To be fair, even a mid 3rd shouldn't be written off as nothing for a team in need of a stronger prospect base.

To be honest, I'm a little concerned about this deal from another perspective. Just yesterday we had Dubas saying things that seemed pretty sensible about Mrazek about how it would be kind of ridiculous to think this one awful year is more representative of who he is than his multiple years of solid play. Which, if true, why make the move? If you sign someone to a multi-year deal thinking "If the first year of this deal goes terribly, I'll try to trade out of it at the cost of picks" then you probably shouldn't sign that deal in the first place. The Leafs cap situation isn't a surprise here so this attitude towards Mrazek does not seem indicative of solid long-term thinking to say nothing of Mrazek's short term performance.

I think I've been fair with Dubas. I generally speaking think he's a bright guy and like him a lot better than some of the stuck in their way hockey lifers we've seen here and around the league. To some extent I think that's driven my "draft a CHL Centre" stuff because I really do think that's the safest option and even a 15 goal, 40 point guy at this point would be something like a feather in his cap. Because if he keeps taking big swings and misses, at some point, you just come to the conclusion that he's not much of a hitter.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi