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Messages - herman

#17
Quote from: IJustLurkHere on July 08, 2024, 08:46:10 PMFeels like reaching. Biggest reason Savard didn't have bigger playoff numbers was he played most of his career on teams that didn't make the playoffs. Argue that's on him if you like, but it's a team game. Even if your take holds somewhat true, Savard in his 25 playoff games doesn't have the chance to adapt that Thornton gets in his 187.

Phil Kessel has 3 cups now (100 playoff games) after finding the right roles. Maybe there's an alternate universe where Marc Savard wound up on the San Jose Sharks as a supporting cast member and both Savard and Thornton have cups.

It's self evident to say that there are players who perform better than others when the refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs. The value of players changes. It's not a stretch to say that the teams who win will be those who have rosters maximising that changed value.

IMO it's a trap to try to definitively sort players into "playoff guys" and "not playoff guys". It's a moving target where the only time we get enough sample size to judge is when good "playoff guys" have the serendipity to land on good rosters full of other "playoff guys". It's easy to point to a roster and say "they didn't get it done. Must not have enough playoff guys." Hard to prove wrong, but not constructive. Fine for the intermission desk, not for the work of building a team.

Talented, motivated players can figure it out. If they get the chance.

Never did I ever think I'd write so many words in defence of Marc Savard.


Thanks for the thorough response!

I'm more or less in-line with what you're saying about finding roles and maximizing them. The Phil Kessel example really highlights the model of depth scoring from an overmatch 3rd line being important when the stars mostly zero each other out.

I think my idea at this point is, in analyzing the metagame of the playoffs, pure playmakers take a huge hit in productivity under playoff style play and officiating. In the KHL championship, this is likely not the case, but in the NHL's no-space playoffs, the game is won by whoever can get the puck off the walls and into the middle of the ice before defenses are set most often.
#18
Alex Nylander struggles a bit with:
  • off puck consistency
  • carrying the puck consistently

but is quite good at:
  • getting lost in the OZ
  • putting the puck into the net

Like an inverse Ilya Mikheyev, or a budget Patrik Laine with more of a finesse rather than power finish. He would need to be surrounded by worker bee linemates who can spring him for cherry picks or breakaways.

Unfortunately, his prime development years were lost in Buffalo's non-existent dev system (at the time) and then Chicago's tank-a-thon.
#19
Quote from: IJustLurkHere on July 08, 2024, 06:59:15 PM
Quote from: herman on July 08, 2024, 07:41:06 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2024, 09:18:35 AM
Quote from: Frank E on July 04, 2024, 08:09:44 AMHe's Alyn McCauley.

I was not expecting this but Alyn McCauley had a monster D+2 season in the OHL: 112 points in 50 games. Wasn't good enough for the OHL scoring lead though as he finished 3rd behind a couple decent players: Marc Savard and Joe Thornton.

Every year adjusts my player template analysis, so here's my latest thing, for obvious reasons.

Help walk me off the ledge of this semi-hot take (or don't, because it's true): pure (perimeter) playmakers are overrated due to regular season performance and most cap-era Cup Finalists/Winners don't feature one in a prominent roster slot.

At risk of missing the point... I don't think that McCauley fits this narrative.

McCauley's 01-02 playoffs were probably the only time he really performed to his potential in the NHL with the Leafs (possibly the first half of the regular season back in Cujo's first year in Toronto). With Sundin injured, he stepped up and was an integral part of that Leafs team reaching the conference finals. His best regular season was with the Sharks. He finished third for the Selke.

So I'm not sure in what way McCauley becomes evidence that regular season specialising perimeter players don't exist on Cup contenders. If anything, that 20 goal defensive forward is exactly what the current Leafs would like to add.

McCauley was a great prospect in his time - CHL player of the year at one stage. Unfortunately concussions (and other injuries) got in the way. Serendipity matters. If any of our current prospects are Alyn McCauley II, I'm thrilled and just hope the hockey gods are kinder to their heads.


Sorry, I was mostly referring to Marc Savard and Joe Thornton. Savard has a Cup win 2011, but he did not feature in that run due to injuries. They put up gaudy point totals but ultimately, does their play translate in the playoffs?

I agree an Alyn McCauley type depth player gives the team a better chance to overmatch lower in the lineup.
#20
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 08, 2024, 09:35:35 AMOh no, you can't trick me into a Marner debate that easily. My self-imposed sabbatical on that remains in place.

Haha, it doesn't have to go in that direction, but it was definitely one of the player types favoured in Dubas-era drafts as it generally matched with the way he wanted the Leafs to play, and coincided with public scouting tendencies to evaluate through NHLe.
  • Semyon Der Arguchintsev
  • Mikhail Abramov
  • Nick Abbruzzese
  • Ty Voit
  • Joe Miller
#22
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2024, 09:18:35 AM
Quote from: Frank E on July 04, 2024, 08:09:44 AMHe's Alyn McCauley.

I was not expecting this but Alyn McCauley had a monster D+2 season in the OHL: 112 points in 50 games. Wasn't good enough for the OHL scoring lead though as he finished 3rd behind a couple decent players: Marc Savard and Joe Thornton.

Every year adjusts my player template analysis, so here's my latest thing, for obvious reasons.

Help walk me off the ledge of this semi-hot take (or don't, because it's true): pure (perimeter) playmakers are overrated due to regular season performance and most cap-era Cup Finalists/Winners don't feature one in a prominent roster slot.
#23
#25
https://twitter.com/kyle_cush/status/1809991580054684055
They were clearly taking it a bit easy on the body given what happened at last year's development camp when then-invitee Noah Dillingham leveled Roni Hirvonen with clean open ice hit that gave him a concussion.
#27
Hmm, might have to adopt Miroslav Holinka as the next fun prospect to bandwagon
#29
So what part of this is actually shutting down?