Author Topic: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens  (Read 6061 times)

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Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #210 on: June 08, 2021, 04:55:32 PM »
It's still mostly the shooting just like it was last year, it just is. I get the need for a timely save but this is a 5 or 7 game series and if you're forced to make every timely save and your team gives you no run support and therefore no margin of error (and you ignore goals that should've gone in but were saved) then I'm not really sure what more there is to do. Put the puck in the net just one more time than they did in Game 5 & 6 and this conversation doesn't even happen.

Yeah, also it defines "can't make the big save" as "can't make every single big save". I'm pretty sure Campbell did, in fact, make some big saves. The standard here isn't a particularly fair one and doesn't legitimately contrast Campbell to lots and lots of goalies who have won playoff series being less good than he was. The difference between goalies who win series and goalies who don't is not whether or not they ever let in goalies that theoretically could have been stopped.

Sure, it's not "the" difference but it is "a" difference.  And I don't think we can just dismiss the idea that a bad goal at a particular time in a game/series doesn't have a magnified impact on a particular team under a given circumstance.  Goal 1 G7 may have been just an unfortunate goal to many teams in many circumstances, but to a team that was teetering on the edge of blowing a series lead again?  It may not be provable, but it is plausible that that particular goal had an outsized impact on a mentally fragile group.

Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #211 on: June 08, 2021, 04:58:56 PM »
Unrelated question for you analytics guys: do any of the advanced predictive stats adjust for the differences in reffing in the playoffs?

Offline nutman

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #212 on: June 08, 2021, 06:03:45 PM »
My take on this loss is simple. No drive... No hunger.. the Habs pushed and never gave up. Even Hyman was not himself. It was like they never cared. Thinking we will get a goal when we need it so why push the whole game. Is it not the coaches job to motivate his team,  as I seen we never started a game until at least the second. That's on the coach.

Online Highlander

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #213 on: June 08, 2021, 06:24:46 PM »
I don't think it is drive Nutman, its the intangible killer instinct that guys like Perry just sweat. The youngsters have picked it up as well; Suzuki, Caulfield, Koki, and Price was the Price we used to know.
Playing Jumbo at all and especially PP1 when Willie should have been there is crazy and sorry Austin's stupid smirking smile when they were trying to beat the shit out of him was not good.  A killer would have been pissed and done something about the abuse. Think Perry would have been smiling in that situation?

We had them and we didn't finish them off, I don't think it was for lack of trying. When we out-shot them in that overtime dramatically and didn't get the goal, well that's the way the cookie crumbles.

To see the way they dominated the Jets gives our loss a modicum of relief of some sorts.  Said it before, these Habs may just surprise. We do want the Cup to come home don't we.
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Offline nutman

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #214 on: June 08, 2021, 06:36:07 PM »
To Toronto not Montreal.  Drive was not there for us imo. On a side note I wanted Perry over Thornton and Simmons as I knew from team Canada he brings game when it counts. I was pissed when the Habs got him.

Offline RedLeaf

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #215 on: June 08, 2021, 08:22:20 PM »
The Habs proved it in both their series so far. Will beats Skill at playoff time…where it’s fight or flight.

« Last Edit: June 08, 2021, 08:36:10 PM by RedLeaf »
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Offline Nik

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #216 on: June 08, 2021, 10:33:03 PM »
Agreed. Quite frankly, Campbell is the only reason game 5 wasn't completely out of hand before the end of the 1st period. Same can be said of the most of games 6 and 7. Did he let in some goals he'd like back? Sure, every goalie does - win or lose - but, at the same time, because of his play, the Leafs had a chance to win every single game of this series, and that's all you can reasonably expect of any goalie. If they showed up before the 3rd period in any of the final 3 games, the Leafs knock off the Habs with relative ease.

So one of the ways I think you have to look at it is like if you were going to give Campbell a letter grade for how he did, I think that fairly the worst you could say about him is that he was a B. Now, you can say that the Leafs need better than that to win if you like(but as pointed out, I don't think it's true) but even if that's true it raises a couple of questions:

Q: Has Campbell established he's incapable of providing that?

A: Obviously not. It was his first time in the playoffs. People comparing his numbers to Andersen forget that Andersen had other playoffs before Columbus and the frustration with him was cumulative.

Q2: If the Leafs need "A" calibre goaltending to advance, is there anyone out there in the NHL who has shown that they bring that every year?

A: Not really. Goaltending is volatile these days and especially so in the playoffs. Price, who I think is still on the short list of best goalies in the world, has pretty good playoff numbers and is paid accordingly. Beyond that...Rask? Fleury? Vasilevsky?

Q3: If you need that sort of goaltending to advance, and need someone who's a safe bet to deliver that consistently, aren't those guys going to be incredibly hard to find?

A: Well, yes. Which is why of the handful of guys on the planet at that level none will be on the market.

None of this, obviously, is to suggest the Leafs don't need to have another good option in net along with Campbell. Like I said, the position lends itself to volatility. But after what we just saw from Campbell in the regular season and the playoffs, I really don't think a clear cut better option is going to present itself that will be both affordable and available. Moreover, I think he's earned another shot.
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Offline Nik

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #217 on: June 08, 2021, 10:38:54 PM »
Goal 1 G7 may have been just an unfortunate goal to many teams in many circumstances, but to a team that was teetering on the edge of blowing a series lead again?  It may not be provable, but it is plausible that that particular goal had an outsized impact on a mentally fragile group.

It was well into the second period of the third straight game where the team had come out flat. If that's what shook up a "mentally fragile" group then, again, there are much much bigger problems than a goalie who occasionally let in a theoretically stoppable goal.
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Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #218 on: June 08, 2021, 10:40:52 PM »
Goal 1 G7 may have been just an unfortunate goal to many teams in many circumstances, but to a team that was teetering on the edge of blowing a series lead again?  It may not be provable, but it is plausible that that particular goal had an outsized impact on a mentally fragile group.

It was well into the second period of the third straight game where the team had come out flat. If that's what shook up a "mentally fragile" group then, again, there are much much bigger problems than a goalie who occasionally let in a theoretically stoppable goal.

It was more like the coup de grace ... and you got that right, he wasn't their main problem.

Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #219 on: June 08, 2021, 10:44:43 PM »
So Nik, busta, et al.: are you comfortable with running with Campbell next year?  Or he just the best we are likely to get?  And are you done with Freddie?

Offline OldTimeHockey

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #220 on: June 09, 2021, 05:25:24 AM »
LOL and this is why people have a hard time with Nik. I'm always up for someone explaining the game of hockey to me though.

I really thought "the Leafs didn't play a game where they dominated the Habs but lost" was fairly straightforward. "Oh yeah, well here's a small stretch of game 6 where they badly outshot the Habs but lost because of a deflected goal" was not a particularly solid rebuttal but if that's why people have a hard time with me I suppose that's my cross to bear.

Yeah that's exactly it. Keep educating man. We are forever in your debt.

There really is nothing like trying to educate someone on a sport that he has played for 37 years(as a goalie and then a player when knees became too bad), coached for 25(as a goalie coach for a good chunk of it), ran a hockey school for 5(continue to do so).

Again, thanks man. You're an angel to offer up your wisdom for free.

Offline OldTimeHockey

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #221 on: June 09, 2021, 05:30:57 AM »
Thoughts on this series

Good:
- Campbell was largely good and truly did enough over the course of the series to give the Leafs enough of a chance to win, which is quite different from previous years

I agree with most of what you had to say except this part. I feel that while Campbell made some good saves, he didn't stop the shots that he had to. That is not "giving a team an opportunity to win." I can think of at least 3 very critical goals that an NHL playoff winning goalie cannot let go into the back of his net. I realize that I've brought this up a couple times, but I don't think it's getting enough attention in the media. I get that Jack is a super nice guy and a real good teammate, but that means nothing when you lose game 7 after being up 3-1. Was he the sole reason they lost? Far from it. Matthews, Marner, Tavares injury, Muzzin injury, Foligno injury, the Leafs inability to change their game style are all contributing factors, but Campbell could have righted that with a couple "ordinary saves" when the team needed them the most.
There's big issues with the five hole goal from the top of the circle from Gallagher in Game 7. The 5 on 3 goal short side when all the Leafs needed was a stop. The deflected goal in OT after the Leafs outshot the habs 13-1. Those are the killers. Those are the goals/saves that mean the difference between a first round loss and a first round victory. If the Leafs go into next season with Campbell as their starter with no plan B, we will be having the same conversation next spring.
When your goalie posts a .920+ and has a better save percentage than the other guy then you're really overthinking the goaltending and under thinking the shooters.

If I'm coming off that I'm putting all the blame at Campbell's feet, I apologize. Definitely not what I'm trying to get across. I just don't think Campbell should escape all blame. Like I've said before, being a goalie myself, I am a defender of the position in general. I just don't think Campbell is an NHL starter. I don't get the feeling that he's going to stop the shots when he has to.

I fully agree that Marner and Matthews have to be better. I fully agree that Thornton should have been in the pressbox. Keefe needs to be better. That's two playoff series in a row where he didn't adjust when what the Leafs were doing, clearly was not working.

(Side Note, Andersen put up a .936 last year against Columbus and a .922 vs Boston the year before yet he's categorized as being the exact same thing as I am pegging Campbell as. A goalie that can't make the big save at the right time. Yes I know it's a bigger sample size for Andersen)
It's still mostly the shooting just like it was last year, it just is. I get the need for a timely save but this is a 5 or 7 game series and if you're forced to make every timely save and your team gives you no run support and therefore no margin of error (and you ignore goals that should've gone in but were saved) then I'm not really sure what more there is to do. Put the puck in the net just one more time than they did in Game 5 & 6 and this conversation doesn't even happen.

I agree that the shooting has to be better. Of course if a team manages to score one extra goal, the series does not go on. Like I said, I agree that Marner and Matthews have to be better.
All I'm highlighting is that the goaltending has to be better as well. Yes he's not "why they lost". But he's certainly not going to be the reason why they make it past the first round in future seasons. At least in my opinion.
I stand by my point that he's not a starter. Or at least not a very good one. His style of play doesn't suit it(can't be a swimmer) nor does his mindset(too fragile and easily thrown). He'd make an excellent 1b or back up though.

Offline L K

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #222 on: June 09, 2021, 09:12:30 AM »
He's first in GAA and 3rd in SV% in the postseason. He's 6th in goals saved above expected.

I'm not comfortable just signing a warm body to be the backup to him.  I think you need a 1A/1B scenario with a guy who could potentially take the starter job away from him but I'm absolutely on board with him getting a chance to run with it.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2021, 09:49:38 AM by L K »

Online bustaheims

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #223 on: June 09, 2021, 09:46:08 AM »
So Nik, busta, et al.: are you comfortable with running with Campbell next year?  Or he just the best we are likely to get?  And are you done with Freddie?

I think, next season, the Leafs need to roll with Campbell and another goalie who is in a similar situation - proven himself to be more than a full-time backup, but not really established as a a starter. I was a fan of Andersen for most of his time here, but 2 less than great seasons in a row, and he'll be 32 going into next season. I wouldn't be willing to give him a contract will any kind of term, and, unless he's willing to take a substantial pay cut to stick around for another season, I wish him the best of luck elsewhere.
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
« Reply #224 on: June 09, 2021, 09:50:07 AM »
So Nik, busta, et al.: are you comfortable with running with Campbell next year?  Or he just the best we are likely to get?  And are you done with Freddie?

I think, next season, the Leafs need to roll with Campbell and another goalie who is in a similar situation - proven himself to be more than a full-time backup, but not really established as a a starter. I was a fan of Andersen for most of his time here, but 2 less than great seasons in a row, and he'll be 32 going into next season. I wouldn't be willing to give him a contract will any kind of term, and, unless he's willing to take a substantial pay cut to stick around for another season, I wish him the best of luck elsewhere.

Yeah I don't think anyone ever saw Campbell as an undisputed number 1 goalie. There's really only a handful of those types left in the league anyway. Most of the league is going to a platoon set-up these days. Hopefully we can snag one of those free agents or see if anyone becomes available during the expansion process. We just need to be conservative on how much cap space we allocate there.