2025 Offseason Thread: Spring Cleaning

[herman]

I'll just say that last offseason Seravelli said there was a 5% chance that Marner would return to play for the Leafs and we saw how that proclamation turned out.

I think that was an accurate read on what the Front Office wanted in the offseason and sort of what the Marner camp wanted (feelings-wise), but then they bunkered down because Marner's camp knew the biggest money driver would be Toronto eyeballs on regular season performance; if the Leafs hit on the playoffs, woohoo, more money, rather than trying to prop up San Jose or whoever else could afford the 10.9M hit. Instead of letting a (disruptive) trade happen, he (barely) hit 100 pts and now can be the belle of the ball on July 1 against a pretty clear field.

The strawmaning is real right now. Sheesh.

I think a lot of fans feel bad about the team losing a significant asset, let alone someone as good as Mitch. For the most part, Marner's on-ice persona is fun and the performance in the aggregate was effective. I wanted it to work and feel bad it has come to this.

I also think while there was probably a way to navigate this for a win-win, one party decided it was better to win alone (because of all the disrespect over the years). And I usually side with the player because most teams are pretty poopy to the players they're negotiating with, but the only thing I can fault the Leafs org for here is not moving him before it transformed into a poison pill situation, not unlike someone who holds onto the puck a little too long looking for the perfect play, but coughs it up for a turnover rush goal against when time and space run out.

 

[Bender]

Unless Matthews returns to form, I doubt they'll win the division next year, so I suppose that's a step back. Depending on how things go they could even be in a battle to earn a playoff spot, which might not be a bad thing for a team that has pretty much coasted into the playoffs almost every year. But assuming they make the playoffs, there is a good chance the team could be in a better position to make a deep run. Treliving will have to be both smart and lucky but if he can put together a roster that makes sense - especially avoiding the "spare parts" construction of the bottom 6 that we've been dealing with - I could see a deep run.

I figure there's probably 3 years left with a really good shot - basically the remaining Matthews contract years. By the time that runs out the defensive group will be pretty old, we'll still be lacking prospects and draft picks, things could go downhill pretty rapidly.

Of course, signing McDavid could change that outlook...

Exactly how I feel. We need better depth. We were eaten alive by Florida's third line in Marchand, not their first two lines in the same way. The step back regular season stuff is beyond irrelevant. Florida finished third in the division this year and steamrolled everyone.

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1937531769625931860

If Seravelli is saying something like this without being certain that's a pretty bad look for him.

If this is in any way true the Leafs should probably be asking the league if they even care a little bit about tampering or not.

Not necessarily. If Marner has 3-4 destinations in mind, it would be in his best interest to visit those places and see if he likes the area where he'd be living. Doesn't mean Vegas necessarily did any tampering (ok, they 100% did)

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Exactly how I feel. We need better depth. We were eaten alive by Florida's third line in Marchand, not their first two lines in the same way. The step back regular season stuff is beyond irrelevant. Florida finished third in the division this year and steamrolled everyone.

Sure but Florida could only add Marchand because they were way over the cap. Short of the Leafs doing that there’s no way they can compete with that on a third line. Florida’s 4th line all made under $900k. Leafs can make better bets there.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1937538659101868146

Kypreos, noted mouthpiece for the Marner camp, floats this:

I’m hearing as much as half the league will try and take a run at Marner in free agency, but the serious bidders will be established well before July 1. However, while the focus around Marner has to do with his free agent status, we can’t rule out the potential for a sign and trade here. For example, going back to Vegas and Karlsson, obtaining a No. 2 centre is as high a priority for Toronto as a top winger replacement for Marner this summer.

1. Mitch Marner
If Mitch Marner makes it to free agency, there is a chance he’d sign somewhere for less than the maximum seven years he’d be able to get on the open market. But what if he could end up in a market he liked and on a Stanley Cup contender?

It’s not out of the question that Marner could still seek maximum term and this is where a sign and trade could get interesting for everyone involved. For Toronto, allowing a sign and trade might be the best resolution of all. Dealing Marner would ensure they get something back for losing him, and doing so with a contract in place would bring a return that’s far more enticing and impactful than simply trading his negotiating rights. They might be able to bring in a roster player to replace him with.

For an acquiring team, this could also make the most sense. For one, they’d be getting him before the market opens, thus avoiding any bidding war and the uncertainty that brings. For another, a sign and trade would be the only way a new team could get Marner for eight years since Toronto would “sign” him to the contract before July 1 and then trade him. That’s key because a lot of these Cup contenders would be bumping up to the cap after signing Marner, and an eighth season would be one way for them to bring down the AAV. Every little bit counts.

 

[Joe S.]

Kypreos is such a windbag.

 

[herman]

Kypreos is such a windbag.

I think someone has been monitoring the responses to the various trial balloons sent out earlier last week about going hard UFA, taking 2 weeks to decide, and maybe even just going short term for more $$$, and now they're backpedaling to save some face.

 

[ZBBM]

I think this feels a little extreme. This isn't like when Columbus lost Panarin for nothing. If there's a team anywhere that can afford to lose an elite talent for nothing (which again I do stress sucks) it's one that still has 2 other elite talents already on the team.

This is probably a better question for a week or two from now but what does "won't recover" even mean? Where do you think the Leafs go from here... struggling to make the playoffs? With two elite forwards, the defence that's locked in, and the goaltending we have I'll find it difficult to believe that Treliving won't be able to assemble another 100+ point team next season. Maybe not if Matthews is cooked but at that point nothing would really matter anyway.

Here are my predictions:
• Leafs won't win the division next year
• Won't hit 100 points
• Will make the playoffs
• Will not win 6 games in the first two rounds (if they make it out of R1)

And that's if old Matthews is back. Like you say (and I've said), if he isn't, all the rest is just sound and fury.

 

[mr grieves]

I also think while there was probably a way to navigate this for a win-win, one party decided it was better to win alone (because of all the disrespect over the years). And I usually side with the player because most teams are pretty poopy to the players they're negotiating with, but the only thing I can fault the Leafs org for here is not moving him before it transformed into a poison pill situation, not unlike someone who holds onto the puck a little too long looking for the perfect play, but coughs it up for a turnover rush goal against when time and space run out.

In the position of Leafs management, after the 2nd contract negotiation, I would've been very reluctant to trust that Marner's team could be worked with on a win-win in the event things didn't work out. I think it was clear, from that one, that Marner isn't interested in long-term commitments and that his people use the leverage they have. The Leafs have been holding too long since 2023, and everything since has been skating with their head down...

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Here are my predictions:
• Leafs won't win the division next year
• Won't hit 100 points
• Will make the playoffs
• Will not win 6 games in the first two rounds (if they make it out of R1)

And that's if old Matthews is back. Like you say (and I've said), if he isn't, all the rest is just sound and fury.

Fair enough. My pre-free agency period hopes are to be at least a 100 point team (but probably not much higher) but also to significantly improve the teams 5-on-5 play. Being 29th in the league, ahead of only Anaheim, San Jose, and Chicago, in CF% was pretty embarrassing. There's ways we can be a better team even if it doesn't show in the points total.

 

[Bender]

Sure but Florida could only add Marchand because they were way over the cap. Short of the Leafs doing that there’s no way they can compete with that on a third line. Florida’s 4th line all made under $900k. Leafs can make better bets there.

The Leafs were in a position to possibly do that though. All comes back to being more ruthless with what they need to do to win, better asset management and better pro scouting.

 

[cabber24]

Sure but Florida could only add Marchand because they were way over the cap. Short of the Leafs doing that there’s no way they can compete with that on a third line. Florida’s 4th line all made under $900k. Leafs can make better bets there.

Exactly, Marchand is not a third-line player. He would only go there, and LTIR allowed it.