2025 Offseason Thread: Spring Cleaning

[herman]

Marner is not getting traded; his representation sees no value in the 8th year. If anything, I suspect he will only sign for 4-5 years (12-14M) to take advantage of the steeply rising cap on another contract after.

This is the guy that fought to be paid more than Auston Matthews for one initial signing bonus dump when he couldn't get a matching or higher AAV.

Auston Matthews 2019-20: $700k base, $15.2M signing bonus = $15.9M total
Mitch Marner 2019-20: $700k base, $15.3M signing bonus = $16M total

 

[bustaheims]

Still, if they manage to trade him would be better than losing it for nothing...

Carolina and New Jersey should be all over him.

Sure. That would be ideal. Given his agent, though, it feels unlikely. Unless Marner is firm on wanting to sign an 8 year deal wherever he goes, the Leafs are probably stuck just trading his rights for a mid-round pick.

 

[herman]

I think one of the pitfalls of the Dubas-era and the analytics movement in general is the overemphasis on evaluating the large sample data.

Yes, you need to see the whole picture for certain types of evaluation to smear out luck effects, but there was an over-reliance on that to pooh-pooh away a pattern of issues in high-leverage moments because the overall percentages were positive.

I don't know what the exact solution is, because myopically looking only at the high leverage moments washes out the plays that lead to leverage. Maybe a regression algorithm to weigh things out based on historical factors.

Even just with goal scoring (i.e. not counting shot attempts), you could ascribe heavier 'quality' weightings for certain types of goal situations and reduce the noise that comes from secondary assists to get a clearer picture of production.

e.g. higher value weights to
* rush goals, solo-efforts
* goals that tie, take the lead, response goals within 2 min
* primary assists for tap-ins, behind the net passes, cross-slot passes

Get a good model for the goals and it can be modified and applied to shot attempts too

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Sure. That would be ideal. Given his agent, though, it feels unlikely. Unless Marner is firm on wanting to sign an 8 year deal wherever he goes, the Leafs are probably stuck just trading his rights for a mid-round pick.

Carolina did get a 3rd round draft pick from Tampa for the negotiating rights to Guentzel last year. And that was for only about 24 hours before he would have officially became a UFA. If a team wanted to jump the line and try to blow Marner away with a contract offer I'd take a 3rd rounder (at the minimum) over nothing I guess.

 

[bustaheims]

Carolina did get a 3rd round draft pick from Tampa for the negotiating rights to Guentzel last year. And that was for only about 24 hours before he would have officially became a UFA. If a team wanted to jump the line and try to blow Marner away with a contract offer I'd take a 3rd rounder (at the minimum) over nothing I guess.

Absolutely. Quality players can be found in the 3rd round all the time. If the Leafs can get more than that, it would be excellent, but, even just a 3rd rounder would be at least be a return with value.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Marner is not getting traded; his representation sees no value in the 8th year. If anything, I suspect he will only sign for 4-5 years (12-14M) to take advantage of the steeply rising cap on another contract after.

This is the guy that fought to be paid more than Auston Matthews for one initial signing bonus dump when he couldn't get a matching or higher AAV.

Auston Matthews 2019-20: $700k base, $15.2M signing bonus = $15.9M total
Mitch Marner 2019-20: $700k base, $15.3M signing bonus = $16M total

He was within his rights to fight for a similar contract to AM34. It's funny how some either dismiss or forget that Lou screwed this up by dicking around with Marner's ELC. Lou with the we don't do those kinds of performance bonuses and then gave them all the AM34. Marner's AAV was 1.775M with an 850K performance bonus. AM34s AAV was 3.775M with a 2.85M performance bonus. So Lou basically cost him 6M and guess who came to collect next contract? Add in he was coming off a 94pt season. I don't blame him one bit for trying to maximize his value. I don't begrudge any player or anybody in everyday life trying to maximize their value. Nobody held a gun to the Leafs head here.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Sure. That would be ideal. Given his agent, though, it feels unlikely. Unless Marner is firm on wanting to sign an 8 year deal wherever he goes, the Leafs are probably stuck just trading his rights for a mid-round pick.

They can't trade his rights without Marner's blessing. He has a NMC.

 

[bustaheims]

They can't trade his rights without Marner's blessing. He has a NMC.

Unless he's being a real dick, that shouldn't be an issue.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Unless he's being a real dick, that shouldn't be an issue.

So now if he doesn't waive, he's being a dick? Ridiculous. Why should he do the Leafs any favours here?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Unless he's being a real dick, that shouldn't be an issue.

And obviously it's not like we'd be trading him to Buffalo or something. Mitch would give a list of a handful of teams he's hoping to speak to as a free agent, and a trade would give him the opportunity to do a deeper dive of that teams organization and arena and city that the currently accepted tampering norms don't really allow for prior to July 1st.

 

[bustaheims]

And obviously it's not like we'd be trading him to Buffalo or something. Mitch would give a list of a handful of teams he's hoping to speak to as a free agent, and a trade would give him the opportunity to do a deeper dive of that teams organization and arena and city that the currently accepted tampering norms don't really allow for prior to July 1st.

Exactly. It's a quid quo pro, basically - we let you explore the city and team of a team of your choice and we at least get some compensation for you leaving.

 

[mr grieves]

He was within his rights to fight for a similar contract to AM34. It's funny how some either dismiss or forget that Lou screwed this up by dicking around with Marner's ELC. Lou with the we don't do those kinds of performance bonuses and then gave them all the AM34. Marner's AAV was 1.775M with an 850K performance bonus. AM34s AAV was 3.775M with a 2.85M performance bonus. So Lou basically cost him 6M and guess who came to collect next contract? Add in he was coming off a 94pt season. I don't blame him one bit for trying to maximize his value. I don't begrudge any player or anybody in everyday life trying to maximize their value. Nobody held a gun to the Leafs head here.

Sure. But once July 1, 2024 rolls around, if your agent isn’t in Treliving’s office to start working out an extension — something team friendly, that shows commitment to the city and returns some of what your underperformance cost the team over your last deal — it’s clear that you aren’t interested to be part of building a winning team in Toronto. You are out to maximize your short term value. Which, fine, but don’t be shocked when fans turn on you or the media reports what you’re doing?

 

[bustaheims]

So now if he doesn't waive, he's being a dick? Ridiculous. Why should he do the Leafs any favours here?

Because the Leafs are also doing him a favour by letting him have more in-depth discussions with a team he's considering joining. It's not a one-sided deal, dude. Guys on expiring deals with trade protection don't get in the way of these kinds of moves all the time, because, really, it doesn't have any negative impact on them.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Sure. But once July 1, 2024 rolls around, if your agent isn’t in Treliving’s office to start working out an extension —something team friendly,

Why does he have to sign something team friendly? 88 and 34 didn't. And July 1 2024? Marner wanted to make a deal then. What are you talking about? The decision to not negotiate was made when the season started.Tre had all summer to try but clearly didn't want to.

Because the Leafs are also doing him a favour by letting him have more in-depth discussions with a team he's considering joining. It's not a one-sided deal, dude. Guys on expiring deals with trade protection don't get in the way of these kinds of moves all the time, because, really, it doesn't have any negative impact on them.

Leafs are now doing him the favour? That's gold dude.

 

[herman]

You can feel the Marner-Ferris spin coming. Drink every time you hear ‘disrespect’.

Edit: That was fast.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1930256769428881474

Going to repeat that trading him in 2023 should’ve been done, even for Alex Kerfootian peanuts, just to not have to go through this negotiation cycle ever again.

Other Ferris clients push for July 1, but only this one smears on this kind of 6-day old mayonnaise onto the poop sandwich.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

You can feel the Marner-Ferris spin coming. Drink every time you hear ‘disrespect’.

Edit: That was fast.

There's really no reason to think there's an ounce of credibility to that report/story. For what possible reason would the Marner side decide to leak their entire version of events to some podcast that covers minor league hockey in Alberta that nobody has ever heard of before?

I've come to terms with Marner leaving, at this point I'm wanting to get this over with since the debates everywhere are getting a little exhausting.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Mitch Marner will be fine without the Leafs.

The Leafs will be fine without Mitch Marner.

 

[mr grieves]

There's really no reason to think there's an ounce of credibility to that report/story. For what possible reason would the Marner side decide to leak their entire version of events to some podcast that covers minor league hockey in Alberta that nobody has ever heard of before?

Maybe Ferris couldn't find any better takers.

 

[mr grieves]

Why does he have to sign something team friendly? 88 and 34 didn't.

He doesn't "have" to unless he wants to play on a Toronto-based NHL team that can contend for a Stanley Cup.

And July 1 2024? Marner wanted to make a deal then. What are you talking about? The decision to not negotiate was made when the season started.Tre had all summer to try but clearly didn't want to.

If he did, there'd be a deal done by now. There's a May 2024 quote from Marner about "start[ing] thinking about it now and try to figure something out" but no reporting that Ferris was trying to get anything real done over the summer. Moreover, there's a very long history of him walking his UFAs, even RFAs, past the expiration date to maximize earning.

 

[herman]

There's really no reason to think there's an ounce of credibility to that report/story. For what possible reason would the Marner side decide to leak their entire version of events to some podcast that covers minor league hockey in Alberta that nobody has ever heard of before?

I've come to terms with Marner leaving, at this point I'm wanting to get this over with since the debates everywhere are getting a little exhausting.

They already told the same story through Kypreos earlier last month but wanted to reach the western demographic.