Red Wings vs. Leafs - Oct. 11th, 7:00pm - SN
- Thread starter CarltonTheBear
- Start date
They were supposedly below average speed last year. Someone did some analysis on that.
On paper, they got slower adding the grit DNA.
They looked slower in preseason. I'm not the only one to observe that.
To me, they looked slower against the Habs.
And they looked slower against the Wings as some observed in this thread.
So there's the opening for Cowan ....
They do have a number of forwards with above average speed so some of it must relate to them not clicking together. That is a little odd because the D with Stolarz is unchanged. One new forward to the top 6 and two to the bottom 6. That is not massive change given all the adds are vets.
More grit might sound great on paper. But it has always had limited effect if the grit guys can't keep up to use their grit. They become pilons. They may to have to adjust their game plan.
It's early. We need at least 10 games to get a better handle on what is going on. Too soon to panic. But given their opponents were not the top teams in the league, there is some basis for concern.
Again, it is early but so far, Matthews seems like the Matthews of last season.
ZBBM
Well-known member
The one wrister Matthews got off that hit iron looked like the release of old. That was encouraging. His general play otherwise, especially on the PP, was not. It looks like they have no idea whatsoever how to create space for him with a man advantage. I think he needs to swing out to the point sometimes. Then they can feed him so he can try and skate it downhill and shoot.
Their movement on the PP is so predictable. It's criminal that the haven't gotten this fixed by now.
Their movement on the PP is so predictable. It's criminal that the haven't gotten this fixed by now.
It is missing some PP quarterbacking DNA that was around for 9 years, had the team 3rd in the league in PP% and the GM felt was disposable. It is going to take them more than a couple of games to sort it out. There is definitely enough talent there to do better than they did but Rielly-Maccelli DNA with a Captain who appears to still be compromised/limited and a lower team speed probably won't be as good in the near future.
4EVRLEAFAN
Active member
I was in the burn it down camp last year I really wanted Matthews gone but as we entered into preseason with no real changes other than you know, I said I'd give it one more chance, why? I have no idea this team hasn't been right in years and without you know it will be worse, so yep this is probably it for me as well, I will always bleed blue and white but as of now unless something big happens, this team is going nowhere.
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Andy007
Well-known member
That being said, hyperbole to the effect of "the team is a joke" is pretty silly, considering the team has consistently made the playoffs and battled the NHL's best team(s) repeatedly. I'm not sure why everything is always 100% one way or the other... Also, I'd argue that "the future is bleak" for every aging team in "win-now" mode.
azzurri63
Well-known member
Because we gave away so much future to win and not much panned out and I'd argue an overpayment in most cases. Losing Marner for basically nothing another mistake. The pipeline is thin nothing to get excited about. Management made a lot of mistakes. If we had held on to a lot of our picks and youth that we traded I would feel it wouldn't be so bleak but this is where they are. I haven't watched much of the pre-season or first 2 games so I'll give it some time for new players, lines etc to blend. We'll see down the road.
They may as well get Cowan in and see if he can contribute. The future is now - no sense saving him for a time when all the defenseman are on Robidas Island, Matthews has left in free agency, and Nylander is the only highly skilled left player on the roster. That time is coming fast.
Team not only looks slow in terms of skating, they look slow in decision making. Puck movement on the power play, what a contrast between Detroit and Toronto last night. Kane would have been the best Leaf by far. Dump ins still seem to be mostly purposeless, with no one getting to the right spot to challenge for the puck. Not sure how much of that is because they don't have a plan, versus they just don't want to battle.
Trying not to read too much negativity into the first 2 games, but it looks a whole lot like last year, minus a 100 point forward and a goalie. Stolarz better stay healthy.
Either give Nick Robertson a real shot in the top 6, or just trade or waive him. He's unable to effectively play the role currently assigned to him and deserves better.
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
I don't think this will ever happen here unfortunately and it's too bad really.
I think that sentence I bolded above is right on. New systems or adjustments make players hesitate or think rather than quick reads and react.
So I looked at NHL Edge numbers.
Recently, I mentioned an article I'd seen that the team was below average speed last season. Not according to NHL edge numbers I looked at. Only Tavares, Jarnkork and Pacioretty were below average speed and all three slightly. The rest, including the Leafs D were all above average speed. So I have lost some confidence in what that article was trying to say.
Then I looked at the players speed last season and this. Only two games played is a snippet of data = cannot be very conclusive. However, every single Leafs player is slower this season. Some might be due to them adding muscle - team average is now 210 lbs. Some might be due to the start of the season but I looked at their ranking in percentile and they all went down except McMann who went from 95th percentile to 96th (fast). So they're slower relative to the rest of the league (who also might be slower to start the season but the percentile ranking evens the playing field - so they're conclusively slower with the snippet of stats).
To me, the small set of stats seem to reinforce that our eyes are not fooling us. Yet I also don't believe they all showed up in worse shape - not with today's training camps taking all the measurements, etc. There must be some systemic, role or chemistry adjustments slowing them down. So the glass is half full for me there: they're trying to get better and they will need 10 to 20 games to shake it out - as they often do. Some patience is required - which is a broken record since '67 .... but I think it has some merit at the moment.
I've commented before about seeing an interview with a former player - unfortunately I can't remember who it was or who did the interview - but he said that when switching to a dump/chase system like Berube has implemented, it could take a whole season or more for the players to get comfortable/proficient with the execution. So there could still be some of that adjustment going on that could explain why some of the decision making looks "slow", and why so many of the dump ins seem more like puck giveaways. The question is, how much more efficient can this group get at it, or do they just not have the personnel to do as good of a job as say the Panthers do. It requires commitment to get in and battle on the boards.
How many new players have the Leafs had in the lineup in the first 2 games...Roy, Joshua, Maccelli, Jarnkrok (sort of, he did miss most of last year). So 4 new forwards or basically 1/3 of the group...could explain some of the issues and thus it seems reasonable to expect that over time they'll "gel" and play quicker and more effectively as a group. Interestingly, Jarnkrok has looked rejuvenated and really committed to doing what needs to be done. If only he could figure out how to make an impact in the playoffs.
My expectation is that this is going to be a bumpy season and I wouldn't be surprised to find the Leafs in a battle to make the playoffs. The hope is that the new additions prove to be more impactful come playoff time. Will it be enough? I suspect there will have to be a significant top-6 type addition later in the season for them to really have a chance to get past the second round.
They do have the benefit of their starting goalie and top 7 dmen returning. With Rielly looking like he's rebounding and Carlo here for the full season, that is a pretty good foundation. Tanev & McCabe look fine. They're just trying to settle the 3rd pairing among 3 dmen who played here last season. And sort out whatever is going on with Woll, etc - which concerns me the most.
I do not regard Jarnkrok as an add. He was playing with these guys two years before Berube showed up. He played 33 games under Berube last season & playoffs. Only 3 new veteran players were a part of the 19 who skated in the first two games and one of them played for Berube before. Two were not in top 6 roles. I don't regard that as a big deal - not something most teams aren't dealing with at this time of the season.
A wild card is Cowan. If he becomes the second coming of Wayne Gretzky on Matthews wing ... doubtful but he's likely top 6 if he's going to do anything in this league. Now is as good a time as any. That would be enormous for their cap and helping them avoid trading the last few young assets they have to get a top 6 player. The candidates for that wing will have to get a long leash because the teams prospects and picks are so limited.
But when you change the system - by removing Marner, change all the lines or how they execute 5 on 5/PP/PK, etc, all the skaters are involved. That can be like you said "takes time to gel". Berube has talked about them searching to find chemistry. So I accept they're going through that and we're seeing them struggle some because of it. But a lot of teams go through that at this time of year - particularly with the shorter training camps.
A concern has to be Matthews. It is only two games so .. But he's not hitting yet. Takeaways are down like they were last year. Tip shots are down like he's not going to the tougher areas of the ice. But again, it is only two games. Those things did improve in the playoffs last year. If that persists, it is obviously going to be a big problem. In 10-20 games, it will be obvious if it persists. If he is chronically injured, they're in a tough situation -the Cup aspirations for this group are close to over.
I think the Wings, Sens & Habs all improved. Tampa looks like it will continue to compete though they're off to a rough start. Florida looks like it will compete without its two stars. Bruins are off to a good start. I think the Leafs regressed - they're not likely to be the 4th best team in the league anymore. Odds makers have them around 10th. Ignoring what they did to their roster and this roster is a year older, others in their division seemed to improve. It probably will be bumpier and the playoffs are not so automatic. A few key injuries and they could be in a battle to make the playoffs .. or miss them.
Pretty good synopsis. Matthews is a definite concern. I've seen people talk about how good he was in game 2 - 6 shots, that blast off the crossbar, etc...but to my eyes, he still looks like he's either holding back or just somewhat limited (or both). As you said, not really going into the tougher areas, not really driving play. I did not like that sequence where Knies was getting mauled behind the net and he just skated around with his head down. Get your nose in there and support your teammate - you don't have to fight. Is Maccelli supposed to do that stuff, or Cowan? If he's too frail to engage in a bit of pushing and shoving after the whistle, that is a big problem.
BTW, the only reason I include Jarnkrok in the "newcomer" list is because he doesn't have the game reps in Berube's system that most of the forwards do. So I consider him sort of a tweener in that regard - he's obviously spent a lot of time with the group but only the 31 (now 33) games actually playing in the system. Still, it does look like he "gets it".