Marner to Vegas is finally happening

[GhostofPotvin29]

+ Healthy Matthews' __ more goals?

Last year, Matthews' injury caused a dip to his shooting percentage to 12.6%, which is still a high-end percentage; the previous 69-goal season he was on a heater for 18.7%, which is his highest but technically not an aberration as he hit 18.5% (2020-21) and 18.2% (2017-18).

Injury plagued 2024-25 Matthews posted 261 shots on goal in 67 games played, which pro-rates to about 319 SOG for 82 games (also incidentally his 3-yr avg number of shots on goal; pro-rates to 353 over 82 games).

Assuming he keeps that exact pace and shoots at his career percentage 15.8% (which includes his injury seasons), that would yield 50G over 82 games. The average number of games he played in the past three full seasons is 74 games, so that'd knock the 50G down to 45 goals.

So a very average Matthews would be another 12 goals on top of last season's injury season (33G). That'll bring up the net scoring balance to 35G in concert with Maccelli and Roy's previous season's numbers. There's also evidence that Maccelli underperformed with the move to Utah (maybe he hates soda), and didn't play in the last quarter of the season, so there's probably 4-7 more goals hiding in there too.

I’d factor in some regression from Tavares’ 38 goals.

 

[herman]

I’d factor in some regression from Tavares’ 38 goals.

Might depend on deployment.

The last 3 years he was 36G, 29G, 38G at 5v5, 18G, 9G, 12G on PP. He did shoot a blistering 19.0%, so if that goes back down to 13.6% on his average 252 shots, that's about 34G.

 

[L K]

+ Healthy Matthews' __ more goals?

Last year, Matthews' injury caused a dip to his shooting percentage to 12.6%, which is still a high-end percentage; the previous 69-goal season he was on a heater for 18.7%, which is his highest but technically not an aberration as he hit 18.5% (2020-21) and 18.2% (2017-18).

Injury plagued 2024-25 Matthews posted 261 shots on goal in 67 games played, which pro-rates to about 319 SOG for 82 games (also incidentally his 3-yr avg number of shots on goal; pro-rates to 353 over 82 games).

Assuming he keeps that exact pace and shoots at his career percentage 15.8% (which includes his injury seasons), that would yield 50G over 82 games. The average number of games he played in the past three full seasons is 74 games, so that'd knock the 50G down to 45 goals.

So a very average Matthews would be another 12 goals on top of last season's injury season (33G). That'll bring up the net scoring balance to 35G in concert with Maccelli and Roy's previous season's numbers. There's also evidence that Maccelli underperformed with the move to Utah (maybe he hates soda), and didn't play in the last quarter of the season, so there's probably 4-7 more goals hiding in there too.

I think it's fine to project some positive stuff but this can go in both directions.

Losing Marner doesn't make it easier for Matthews to score goals. Matthews health should also be a question mark. The mystery behind his injuries leaves it open ended on whether he can actually stay healthy. He scored 40 goals 2 years ago. He scored 33 goals last year. Neither season was limited by Matthews getting a fluke broken hand. It's things like wrist and "maybe back". If healthy I see no reason why Matthews isn't right back to a 50+ goal scorer just from shooting percentage alone. But he has to be healthy for that to happen and we shouldn't be relying on that to be a sure thing.

Maccelli should be better than his last season....but its also easy to just blame it on the coach for not fitting his play style. He wouldn't be the first player who fell off after a couple of promising seasons.

McMann....where did you go? 17 goals in his first 47 games. 3 in the next 27 and 0 in 13 playoff games. Is there more to give there, or did the carriage just turn back into the pumpkin on an undrafted 29 year old. It wasn't just bad luck that led to McMann his scoring drought. His play style really slowed down. He wasn't taking good shots. Wasn't driving the net well.

Robertson. Is he back? If I'm Robertson, I would probably want out. At times it seemed like Berube was trusting him and then completely went away from him in the playoffs. I think there could be a chance for him to get some opportunity up the lineup and on the PP if he does stay.

Tavares is probably due for some age related regression.

Domi...could probably give a little more.

I want the team to be better on paper (and there really wasn't a way to do that with this miserable offseason). I don't want to just rely on best case scenarios for how we can make up lost production.

 

[herman]

I think it's fine to project some positive stuff but this can go in both directions.

These were projections based on back of the napkin (err hockey-reference) averages from the last three seasons.

Matthews without Marner will be different, granted. Historically (relatively small sample), it hasn't been a problem for Matthews to score while Marner was out or on a different line.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Might depend on deployment.

The last 3 years he was 36G, 29G, 38G at 5v5, 18G, 9G, 12G on PP. He did shoot a blistering 19.0%, so if that goes back down to 13.6% on his average 252 shots, that's about 34G.

Two of his last 4 seasons have been below 11.5 SH% so I’m not totally comfortable assuming that. It’s possible of course.

 

[Bender]

Yup..Lou told Marner that the Leafs don't do the bonuses for rookies he was looking for and then turned around and gave them all to Matthews. It was 6M difference. The Marner camp got that 6M the next contract. Seems Lou started this disrespect.

Lou "started the disrespect" or the camp was ready from the start of Mitch's pro career, and likely before that, to use every ounce of leverage to get what they want, including using anything that could be construed as aggrievement as a real aggrievement?

 

[Bullfrog]

It was pretty shitty to give Matthews bonuses and not Marner. There really can't be any debate about that.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Lou "started the disrespect" or the camp was ready from the start of Mitch's pro career, and likely before that, to use every ounce of leverage to get what they want, including using anything that could be construed as aggrievement as a real aggrievement?

Spin it anyway you'd like but Lou lied to them.

 

[cabber24]

It was pretty shitty to give Matthews bonuses and not Marner. There really can't be any debate about that.

3000 years ago, who cares? Lou was gone eons ago, and Marner got paid?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Spin it anyway you'd like but Lou lied to them.

Listen I don't make defending Lou a common practice but "lied" is pretty hyperbolic. He had like a decade long-policy of not handing out rookie bonuses. That was never a major issue with the Devils because they typically never drafted high but he did hold firm on the policy when it came to another 4th overall pick in Adam Larsson before he left. Policies however do adjust over time.

He quite literally caved on this policy already by giving Marner his full schedule A bonuses ($850k per year). That's $2.55mil more than what Larsson got right there. Marner wanted schedule B bonuses as well but Lou held firm and said no. He wasn't able to do that with Matthews, but I mean, it's just a reality that draft pick status changes things and Matthews was considered a very high end level 1st overall pick.

Also it didn't end up being a $6mil difference. That's the maximum it could have been over 3 years but he would have only hit those bonuses in the final year of his ELC when he was top-10 in the league in assists. The figure that their camp requested and got from Dubas on his second contract to make up for that was $1.6mil.