It's everyone's favourite time of the year again so I'll just get right into my 1st attempt at an armchair GM version for next years team:
1) Trade Kerfoot to, I dunno, Arizona. I am by no means a Kerfoot-hater, in fact I've generally been a fan of his. He is a very solid utility player who can play anywhere in the line-up from the top line to the bottom line, left wing, right wing, centre, powerplay, penalty kill, you name it. But he makes a little bit too much money, the team is in a cap crunch, and maybe, just maybe, his spot on the roster needs to go to someone with a slightly different style of play. Given his 50-points this season and his contract structure (he's owed just $2.7mil next season, $1.95mil of that is paid out in a bonus that the Leafs could eat) I do think we should be able to get some sort of decent 3rd or maybe even 2nd round pick for him. If for whatever reason we can't though Arizona will certainly need players next season (Kerfoot has a modified NTC that kicks in July 1st though).
2) Call up Lou and see if he's interested in a bit of a shake-up trade between the two teams. Varlamov (at 50% retained) and Mayfield for Muzzin and Holl (at least as the base of the deal). Moving Muzzin will be a tough loss, but I think we've got a replacement for him already in the point below and even though his play rebounded in the playoffs I think there's some good reason to suspect we'll see a drop in play for Muzzin over the next couple years. Mayfield puts up great results and has a very affordable contract but he'll also be an UFA after next season and is behind Dobson and Pulock on their right defence. The Islanders have nothing on the left side after Pelech so Muzzin would be a big addition for them. If getting Mayfield in a deal like this isn't a possibility I'd still be interesting in dropping him and Holl from the deal and doing something revolving Varlamov+retention for Muzzin.
3) Re-sign Giordano at a 2-year, $3.5mil AAV deal. Not to really say they're the same players but this is a similar deal that Foligno signed with Boston this past offseason. Gio would come in a little bit lower because he's a few years older which makes the term a little bit riskier, also the whole hometown angle.
4) Some RFA re-signings: Liljegren and Sandin signed to matching 2-year, $1.5mil AAV deals. A couple of guys here that will be big parts of our D going forward but they're also both coming off ELC deals and still, technically speaking, haven't really 100% broken into the line-up as regulars. With no real negotiation rights to stand on they both should get pretty favourable team-friendly deals. This matches what Dermott got last season and while I think both of them have higher ceilings they're roughly in the same boat he was in at the time. This also lines them up to expire at the same time as Brodie and Giordano (or Muzzin if he isn't dealt) so there will likely be a bit of a changing of the guard that year where those two can get signed to bigger deals.
Re-sign Engvall and Kase to 3-year, $1.5mil AAV deals. They both get some stability and a 20% raise on their previous cap hits. When Kase was at his peak this season there was some thought of him being unaffordable going forward but I mean he scored at roughly his career level and still had injury troubles and he'll be a RFA so I don't really see him cashing in. If he went to arbitration maybe he gets more but the security of a 3-year deal, especially with his injury history, might be more appealing.
5) Some UFA signings: Max Domi on a 1 or 2-year deal at $2.5mil. Did someone say tenacity? I've thought of Domi as a potential offseason target for awhile now. I see him as basically this years Nick Ritchie, an attempt to get a guy with potential on a show-me kind of deal. Might be a disaster, might be a roaring success.
Nick Paul on a 4-year, $2.75mil AAV contract. I swear this isn't just because of the 2 goal game he had against us, although the Leafs do have a bit of a history of going after players they've lost to in the playoffs. Paul's a 6'3", 224 lbs forward who can play centre or wing, kill penalties, and chip in a bit offensively. He'll replace a bit of what we lost in Kerfoot and Mikheyev but with a little less speed and a little more size. Some bonus points in that like Domi he's from the GTA. Reports were that Paul turned down a 4-year, $2.5mil AAV deal with the sens so this is a bit of a raise from that.
Zach Aston-Reese on a 3-year, $1.5mil AAV contract. Aston-Reese is a 4th liner with terrific defensive abilities. He also has some size and likes to hit. I think him and Kampf could combine to make a solid 4th line checking unit together.
That leaves us with a roster that looks like:
Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Domi-Tavares-Kase
Robertson-Paul-Nylander
Aston-Reece-Kampf-Engvall
Simmonds
Rielly-Mayfield
Giordano-Brodie
Sandin-Liljegren
Dahlstrom
Varlamov
Mrazek
This gives the Leafs a 22-man roster with roughly $300-400k in cap space remaining
Some scattered thoughts on the line-up:
The very successful top forward line stays together... and everything else basically changes. Kampf gets dropped to the 4th line in an attempt to have 3 lines that can score on a consistent basis. A rejuvenated Domi will hopefully be able to provide a spark to Tavares, although those middle-6 wingers could flip around a lot. If Robertson isn't ready for full-time duty then Engvall could play with Nylander again and Simmonds or Joey Anderson could jump on the Kampf checking unit.
Not too much to say about the defence. I think that's 3 solid pairings, and Sandin and Liljegren will have the chance to have established, everyday spots on the line-up. Ideally we'd see some experimenting there too with Gio-Lily and Sandin-Brodie playing some minutes.
Goaltending will be a bit of a question mark. Despite finishing with a 0.911 Sv% Varlamov is coming off a not-so-great season. He missed the start of the season with an injury and like everyone else on his team had COVID-19 so there's some explanation there. Not doing anything with Mrazek is might be a bit of a surprise but I dunno, goalies are so voodoo I really don't think it's a stretch to say he'll rebound and be able to provide league average performance again. If there's a reasonable deal to dump him and sign someone else I might look at it but I'm not sure that'd be out there so I'll take the risk and give him another chance.
Anyway TLDR we go into another season with two goalies in the hopes we can get at least average performances from them, we bring back another defence that is 6-guys deep, and we refresh our forward line-up by bringing in guys with some size and/or tenacity in Domi/Paul/Aston-Reece while not doing anything else too crazy.
1) Trade Kerfoot to, I dunno, Arizona. I am by no means a Kerfoot-hater, in fact I've generally been a fan of his. He is a very solid utility player who can play anywhere in the line-up from the top line to the bottom line, left wing, right wing, centre, powerplay, penalty kill, you name it. But he makes a little bit too much money, the team is in a cap crunch, and maybe, just maybe, his spot on the roster needs to go to someone with a slightly different style of play. Given his 50-points this season and his contract structure (he's owed just $2.7mil next season, $1.95mil of that is paid out in a bonus that the Leafs could eat) I do think we should be able to get some sort of decent 3rd or maybe even 2nd round pick for him. If for whatever reason we can't though Arizona will certainly need players next season (Kerfoot has a modified NTC that kicks in July 1st though).
2) Call up Lou and see if he's interested in a bit of a shake-up trade between the two teams. Varlamov (at 50% retained) and Mayfield for Muzzin and Holl (at least as the base of the deal). Moving Muzzin will be a tough loss, but I think we've got a replacement for him already in the point below and even though his play rebounded in the playoffs I think there's some good reason to suspect we'll see a drop in play for Muzzin over the next couple years. Mayfield puts up great results and has a very affordable contract but he'll also be an UFA after next season and is behind Dobson and Pulock on their right defence. The Islanders have nothing on the left side after Pelech so Muzzin would be a big addition for them. If getting Mayfield in a deal like this isn't a possibility I'd still be interesting in dropping him and Holl from the deal and doing something revolving Varlamov+retention for Muzzin.
3) Re-sign Giordano at a 2-year, $3.5mil AAV deal. Not to really say they're the same players but this is a similar deal that Foligno signed with Boston this past offseason. Gio would come in a little bit lower because he's a few years older which makes the term a little bit riskier, also the whole hometown angle.
4) Some RFA re-signings: Liljegren and Sandin signed to matching 2-year, $1.5mil AAV deals. A couple of guys here that will be big parts of our D going forward but they're also both coming off ELC deals and still, technically speaking, haven't really 100% broken into the line-up as regulars. With no real negotiation rights to stand on they both should get pretty favourable team-friendly deals. This matches what Dermott got last season and while I think both of them have higher ceilings they're roughly in the same boat he was in at the time. This also lines them up to expire at the same time as Brodie and Giordano (or Muzzin if he isn't dealt) so there will likely be a bit of a changing of the guard that year where those two can get signed to bigger deals.
Re-sign Engvall and Kase to 3-year, $1.5mil AAV deals. They both get some stability and a 20% raise on their previous cap hits. When Kase was at his peak this season there was some thought of him being unaffordable going forward but I mean he scored at roughly his career level and still had injury troubles and he'll be a RFA so I don't really see him cashing in. If he went to arbitration maybe he gets more but the security of a 3-year deal, especially with his injury history, might be more appealing.
5) Some UFA signings: Max Domi on a 1 or 2-year deal at $2.5mil. Did someone say tenacity? I've thought of Domi as a potential offseason target for awhile now. I see him as basically this years Nick Ritchie, an attempt to get a guy with potential on a show-me kind of deal. Might be a disaster, might be a roaring success.
Nick Paul on a 4-year, $2.75mil AAV contract. I swear this isn't just because of the 2 goal game he had against us, although the Leafs do have a bit of a history of going after players they've lost to in the playoffs. Paul's a 6'3", 224 lbs forward who can play centre or wing, kill penalties, and chip in a bit offensively. He'll replace a bit of what we lost in Kerfoot and Mikheyev but with a little less speed and a little more size. Some bonus points in that like Domi he's from the GTA. Reports were that Paul turned down a 4-year, $2.5mil AAV deal with the sens so this is a bit of a raise from that.
Zach Aston-Reese on a 3-year, $1.5mil AAV contract. Aston-Reese is a 4th liner with terrific defensive abilities. He also has some size and likes to hit. I think him and Kampf could combine to make a solid 4th line checking unit together.
That leaves us with a roster that looks like:
Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Domi-Tavares-Kase
Robertson-Paul-Nylander
Aston-Reece-Kampf-Engvall
Simmonds
Rielly-Mayfield
Giordano-Brodie
Sandin-Liljegren
Dahlstrom
Varlamov
Mrazek
This gives the Leafs a 22-man roster with roughly $300-400k in cap space remaining
Some scattered thoughts on the line-up:
The very successful top forward line stays together... and everything else basically changes. Kampf gets dropped to the 4th line in an attempt to have 3 lines that can score on a consistent basis. A rejuvenated Domi will hopefully be able to provide a spark to Tavares, although those middle-6 wingers could flip around a lot. If Robertson isn't ready for full-time duty then Engvall could play with Nylander again and Simmonds or Joey Anderson could jump on the Kampf checking unit.
Not too much to say about the defence. I think that's 3 solid pairings, and Sandin and Liljegren will have the chance to have established, everyday spots on the line-up. Ideally we'd see some experimenting there too with Gio-Lily and Sandin-Brodie playing some minutes.
Goaltending will be a bit of a question mark. Despite finishing with a 0.911 Sv% Varlamov is coming off a not-so-great season. He missed the start of the season with an injury and like everyone else on his team had COVID-19 so there's some explanation there. Not doing anything with Mrazek is might be a bit of a surprise but I dunno, goalies are so voodoo I really don't think it's a stretch to say he'll rebound and be able to provide league average performance again. If there's a reasonable deal to dump him and sign someone else I might look at it but I'm not sure that'd be out there so I'll take the risk and give him another chance.
Anyway TLDR we go into another season with two goalies in the hopes we can get at least average performances from them, we bring back another defence that is 6-guys deep, and we refresh our forward line-up by bringing in guys with some size and/or tenacity in Domi/Paul/Aston-Reece while not doing anything else too crazy.
