2025-26 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
- Thread starter herman
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dappleganger
Well-known member
Outside of OEL this team is getting no scoring from the backend.
Tavares has been quiet for over a month now.
Tavares has been quiet for over a month now.
bustaheims
Well-known member
Time to give Villeneuve a shot finally?
They're not the biggest minutes obviously but McCabe can't keep playing PP2 like he did last night. Not with all the other responsibilities on his plate (23:01 5-on-5 minutes and 2:46 PK minutes last night). So yeah if OEL is going to miss even a few games a call-up feels necessary.
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
But we have Myers!!!
So if you went to the Vegas game, would you boo Marner?
I don't like my answer, but I probably would.
He got paid far too much and delivered far too little in the playoffs. The stupid amount of assets given or walked away due to salary constraints was painful. We added every deadline just to watch him suck in the playoffs. The whining and bitching was/is palpable. He demanded the world, and we got a crap return on investment.
Vince Carter still takes the cake, but this is a close second for me.
I don't like my answer, but I probably would.
He got paid far too much and delivered far too little in the playoffs. The stupid amount of assets given or walked away due to salary constraints was painful. We added every deadline just to watch him suck in the playoffs. The whining and bitching was/is palpable. He demanded the world, and we got a crap return on investment.
Vince Carter still takes the cake, but this is a close second for me.
I've always considered myself relatively neutral on Marner. First game back in Toronto, he's going to get boo'd. And boo'd hard. I think/hope time will eventually heal wounds and we can someday recognize him as one of the best Leafs to ever put on the uniform, but it won't be anytime soon.
I asked ChatGPT the following question:
"In the NHL, they talk about underlying numbers to support or discredit a teams record. For example, the Ottawa Senators are said to have great underlying numbers but their goaltending is causing them to lose games. Can you get me the Toronto Maple Leafs underlying numbers and put them into context for where they are in the standings?"
It gave me this, which I think is saying their record should be better than it is:
Here’s a snapshot of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2025-26 season performance and underlying numbers (as of mid-January 2026), and what those numbers suggest about their actual play vs their results:
While exact up-to-date Corsi/xG% numbers aren’t publicly available in detail, proxy indicators (like NHL EDGE and NHL.com’s tracking) suggest:
Underlying play indicators suggest:
In analytics terms:
Underlying performance indicators for the Maple Leafs in 2025-26 suggest:
Is there anything else you want to ask it?
"In the NHL, they talk about underlying numbers to support or discredit a teams record. For example, the Ottawa Senators are said to have great underlying numbers but their goaltending is causing them to lose games. Can you get me the Toronto Maple Leafs underlying numbers and put them into context for where they are in the standings?"
It gave me this, which I think is saying their record should be better than it is:
Here’s a snapshot of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2025-26 season performance and underlying numbers (as of mid-January 2026), and what those numbers suggest about their actual play vs their results:
- Record: ~24-17-8 (56 points) in 49 games.
- Division: 6th in the Atlantic Division.
- Points pace: Competitive but not dominant — outside a top wild-card spot and trailing division leaders. (StatMuse)
- Last ~11 games: The Leafs have had a strong stretch with a 7-2-2 record and a +11 goal differential (or slightly better in some samples). This means when they play well they win convincingly and control games offensively. (StatMuse)
- Expected Goals (last 7): ~24 goals for vs ~21 expected against in recent sample — again hinting at strong underlying offense. (StatMuse)
While exact up-to-date Corsi/xG% numbers aren’t publicly available in detail, proxy indicators (like NHL EDGE and NHL.com’s tracking) suggest:- Toronto is middle-to-above average in shots and offensive danger at 5-on-5 based on general league metrics.
- Their offensive zone time is high, indicating puck possession and sustained pressure — both good signs of underlying control. (NHL)
- Goaltending has been spotty: Toronto’s top goalie numbers in the season stats include an x.920 SV% for one netminder, but other goalies around .884 in smaller samples — a wide gap. This indicates inconsistency in net that can swing outcomes. (Wikipedia)
- Historically, Toronto’s underlying talents (shots, expected goals, scoring chances) have often been better than their actual record when goaltending falters — similar to what analysts have described with Ottawa and other teams.
Underlying Numbers vs Actual Results
Underlying play indicators suggest:- Offense: Good control of possession and scoring chances; balanced offense with stars like Auston Matthews and William Nylander driving goals.
- Defense & Expected Goals Against: Likely decent, but goaltending variance and occasional defensive breakdowns can inflate the number of goals allowed relative to the chance quality.
- Goalie SV% swings: With one goalie trending above league average and others below, the actual goals allowed vs expected goals allowed gap likely exists.
In analytics terms:- If Leafs’ expected goals for (xGF) > expected goals against (xGA) but actual goal differential is lower, that’s a classic indicator of underperforming record vs underlying performance. Based on minor proxies and recent positive goal differentials in stretches, that situation looks likely for Toronto this season.
- That means their actual record may be slightly worse than their underlying play would predict — possibly attributable to inconsistent goaltending or special teams bounces.
- Toronto sits mid-pack in standings despite having high-end talents and good scoring chance profiles — suggesting either some bad puck luck, goaltending regression, or clustering of goals allowed in certain games.
- Teams with similar underlying numbers but better goaltending/coaching execution tend to sit higher in the standings.
Underlying performance indicators for the Maple Leafs in 2025-26 suggest:- Offense and puck possession are strong.
- Expected goals and chances generally favor Toronto.
- Actual record is solid but not elite given the roster.
- Inconsistent goaltending appears to be a limiting factor — preventing a better record from strong underlying play.
Is there anything else you want to ask it?
I'd be with you, but I think if that is the case, they have to do some damage control at the trade deadline, or else the Leafs will be in another bad spot next year. Not sure they are going to do that, and that is what is going to frustrate me. Most of us fans can see this team doesn't have it. So don't go for it. Just take your lumps and try and get this thing back on the rails quickly. Kinda like those two years before Quinn and Cujo showed up.
I hope they have the wherewithal to trade guys like McMann and Jarnkrok to recoup some picks and prospects/younger players. I would hold off on trading Laughton and Carlo unless there is a significant deal on the table. Do to the west being so bad, I think it is hard for them to get into the bottom 5 where the pick is protected, but I'm on the fence on if it is better to just get the pick transfers out of the way the next to years, or to hope for the protection clauses to get at least one high pick in the next two years.
I'd be playing a guy like Quillan on the fourth line and moving Laughton up, to the second to play with Tavares and Nylander. Move Tavares to the wing.
If the talking heads are correct, prices could be decent for sellers this year because there is going to be so few teams that are out of it in the east, so you can jetison some players at slightly inflated value. If you pick the right team, you could get a first rounder that isn't in the bottom third, depending on the player you are moving.
Then in the offseason you have a real conversation about what you are doing with guys like Matthews and Rielly.
People who pay for seats can cheer or boo in any manner they please.
It took Brazeau 3 additional seasons in the AHL (and some time in the ECHL) to develop into a NHL player, so I don't really think it's a question of the Leafs giving him a chance. I always thought it was weird though that he didn't re-sign here after his original AHL deal expired, especially after Dubas' rather bold claim that it'd be a failure on the Leafs if he never played a NHL game. Admittedly he kinda stunk in his first AHL season with the Marlies but it was also a weird covid time.
Treliving is responsible for Marner sucking in the playoffs?
Read every OT loss thread, people are always pissed at whoever's on the ice. Domi's lost a few in OT but scored in OT the other night. No one was complaining that night about him playing in OT.