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2025-26 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

blogTO: Toronto Maple Leafs now have worst playoff odds of all Canadian NHL teams​

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Toronto Maple Leafs now have worst playoff odds of all Canadian NHL teams

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in all sorts of trouble ahead of the holiday season. It's been a nightmare year for the Leafs so far, sitting at the bot…
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moneypuck.com

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2026 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Stanley Cup Odds, Playoff seeding, and Draft Lottery Odds
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These are slightly less pessimistic
www.playoffstatus.com

2026 NHL Post Season Probabilities

The 2026 NHL Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds.
www.playoffstatus.com www.playoffstatus.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

Probability of making the Stanley Cup playoffs
www.hockey-reference.com www.hockey-reference.com

hockeystats.com

NHL Standings Projections & Playoff Odds | HockeyStats.com

Who's in the NHL playoff picture, and who's likely to sneak back in? Standings with playoff probabilities and points projections, updated daily.
hockeystats.com hockeystats.com

Chances of winning a Cup range from 0.4% to less than 1%

Those numbers can change over the next 40+ games but they have to start soon.
Regardless, even if they improve, it is increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to perceive this team as a true contender.
They probably need to start looking further down the road to make their roster decisions for this season.
A lot of their older UFAs won't want to hang around for a rebuild.
 
I'm not sure what to make of Auston's postgame remarks. Number one, he made them — he didn't hide, which is good. He says he thinks the process was a lot better even if the result wasn't. But he didn't offer to take personal responsibility (the media people in the scrum sure aren't going to press him) for what I gather were some pretty bad plays at key moments.

But he is trying to keep a positive outlook (or says his is)/ What else can he say/do?
 
He said "I’d like that play back at the end of the second," which is about the closest I've heard him come to taking blame for something tangible.

From the replay, that play was a lot like the one by Robertson a few games ago. If the other team doesn't score, no one is talking about it. But both were somewhat risky plays to be making late in a period when the team is in a fragile state. At least Matthews got back to break up the initial rush - Knies didn't get back to deal with the eventual scorer. I still say he is fighting a lingering injury.

Of course, Woll should have stopped it anyway.
 
Chris said:
I thought it might be me, but I didn't watch last night and it sounds like they turned in another uninspiring performance.

I am tempted to put the game on tonight. In past years I would expect this to be a game where the Leafs show up and actually come out on top. However, I think this entire group - coaching staff and players - is too fragile right now. I expect another Edmonton-type game.
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I don't think I can even bring myself to watch, which I don't think has happened in my past 30-35 years of intent watching.

I'm not even sure who the brunt of this mess falls upon. While I don't think the criticism of Treliving is entirely unearned, is he responsible for Matthews, Rielly, Nylander and Knies looking absolutely awful for (most) parts of the season? Laughton was a solid 11-13 goal, 30-35 point player for years, who suddenly can't crack 20 points here. Carlo was acquired as a 28 yo, 6'5, "bonafide" 2nd pairing, RHD with 2 additional years of control on a very reasonable cap hit. On paper that seems like a great deal (particularly by comparison to other deadline deals). Why do these players come here and die?

Now, the fact that we have Trotsky's wet dream when it comes to wingers (ALL LEFTIES!); a bunch of big, non-mobile defensemen, and nothing to show for the Cap savings left by Marner's departure, makes me tend to believe that Treliving shouldn't be in control of turning this around. That being said, there is definitely a huge problem in the system and Berube, clearly, is not making any type of positive impact. Constantly outshot, unable to maintain puck possession and the inability to get shots on net. That is an awful hockey product.
 
Bill_Berg said:
If they manage to get a top five pick, what does the pick Boston owns defer to? Our 2027 first round pick?
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From Puck Pedia.....

It will slide to 2027. The 2027 pick goes to Philadelphia (as part of Laughton trade) if it is outside the top 10, which converts this pick to Boston to a 2028 unprotected 1st Round Pick. If this Pick slides to 2027 and is in the top 10, TOR can either transfer it to BOS to satisfy this trade and then give PHI the 2028 unprotected, or transfer it to PHI and give BOS the 2028 unprotected 1st Round Pick.
 
If it was up to me I'd be trading McCabe, OEL, Roy and Laughton to start. And if Stolarz ever comes back I'd listen to what you can get for him.

For sure some playoff teams will pay a good price for those guys. Tank this season and hope for that high pick.

But I have absolutely no faith in Treliving to execute on this at all. I'm almost convinced he's going to try to salvage this season.
 
Joe S. said:
If it was up to me I'd be trading McCabe, OEL, Roy and Laughton to start. And if Stolarz ever comes back I'd listen to what you can get for him.

For sure some playoff teams will pay a good price for those guys. Tank this season and hope for that high pick.

But I have absolutely no faith in Treliving to execute on this at all. I'm almost convinced he's going to try to salvage this season.
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We need a GM with the DNA to retool/rebuild. :)

I think they need a rebuild because retooling with a bunch of 30 year olds is not likely to get very far.
Trade deadline prices are nuts. We know first hand from all our prospects and draft picks going for rentals.
They could take their time and roll the roster over some.
 
The sad part is that if they rebuild the very best you could hope for is that they bat 1.000 on a bunch of top 10 picks, that is, all of which pan out, over the next X years (Matthews, Marner, Rielly yes Rielly, Nylander) and then you'd be back where we were when it all looked so bright 8 or 9 years ago. At best.

Here's how I'm looking at this: I got to see Sundin and his teams play. I got to see the Core 4 play all kinds of superfun hockey. I very likely won't live long enough to see anything nearly this good again.

I'm grateful for all the fabulous regular season hockey I got to see. Lots of fans don't even get to see that.
 
cw said:
We need a GM with the DNA to retool/rebuild. :)

I think they need a rebuild because retooling with a bunch of 30 year olds is not likely to get very far.
Trade deadline prices are nuts. We know first hand from all our prospects and draft picks going for rentals.
They could take their time and roll the roster over some.
Click to expand...

Competent management can go a long way. I think they’ve been skittish where they should’ve been patient (picks and prospects after they got Matthews and decided every year was “the year”), and waaay too slow where they needed to act decisively (jettisoning Keefe and trading one of 3 stars before all the NMCs kicked in). That’s mostly on Shanahan, but I don’t trust Treliving to fix anything. Id want ownership to empower someone who’s spent a lot of time around one of the good programs
 
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