2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[Deebo]

I wasn't overly surprised that Matthews kept piling up goals without Marner. I also don't think superstars should kill penalties. Never heard of an 8 figure forward that kills penalties. Save your superstar ice time for offense. Yes, everyone needs to play responsible defensive hockey but we need our stars scoring not killing penalties.

12 forwards will make 10M+ AAV next year

Out of that 12 Eichel, Barkov, Marner, and Pettersson seem to have been regular PKers last season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

As kind of an aside I remember watching playoffs this year and being absolutely blown away that Tyler Seguin was killing penalties on a regular basis for Dallas.

 

[cabber24]

I wasn't overly surprised that Matthews kept piling up goals without Marner. I also don't think superstars should kill penalties. Never heard of an 8 figure forward that kills penalties. Save your superstar ice time for offense. Yes, everyone needs to play responsible defensive hockey but we need our stars scoring not killing penalties.

12 forwards will make 10M+ AAV next year

Out of that 12 Eichel, Barkov, Marner, and Pettersson seem to have been regular PKers last season.

I wasn't overly surprised that Matthews kept piling up goals without Marner. I also don't think superstars should kill penalties. Never heard of an 8 figure forward that kills penalties. Save your superstar ice time for offense. Yes, everyone needs to play responsible defensive hockey but we need our stars scoring not killing penalties.

Well Florida just won a Cup with Reinhart and Barkov being 3-4 in TOI among forwards on the PK for them in the regular season and playoffs.

Now maybe we could manage Marner's minutes a little bit better on the PK and maybe not play him on the top unit, but it feels like that's been done more out of necessity than anything recently. But I don't agree he (or Matthews) shouldn't kill penalties at all. Most superstars might not kill penalties but most of them also aren't Selke calibre forwards.

Well... if they didn't have 4 forwards making 8-figures maybe we could afford better role players. Marner killing penalties is not a selling point for me.

 

[princedpw]

Among all forwards in the playoffs since 2016-17 to the present with 30 or more playoff games, Marner is 8th in assists per game. Here's the 7 who did better:
Connor McDavid
Nikita Kucherov
Leon Draisaitl
Mikko Rantanen
Sidney Crosby
Blake Wheeler
Nathan MacKinnon

I don't understand the disdain for this player and this stuff about his inability to pass in the playoffs or whatever the heck that is. Nor this stuff about him being primarily at fault for the team's lower playoff scoring when he's their leading playoff scorer. It doesn't seem to jive with the facts that have no opinion.

I don't know how to look this up (please tell me what site you use!) but I'd be interested to see where Marner ranks in overall offensive output (goals & assists) in the playoffs over the past 3-5 years and then factor in his stellar defense to understand his overall worth.  Looking only at Marner's assists per game is likely to overestimate his value.

If Marner is the 20th or 30th most productive player in the playoffs overall and paid like the 8th most productive player then he isn't helping them win.  Of course, if Marner gets replaced by the 50th most productive player then Toronto is in even worse spot.

To me it is pretty clear that the best course of action with Marner is to embrace him this season and work on making him as effective as possible in next year's playoffs.  When the playoffs are over, we will be in the best position to assess his value.  This is going to be best for both sides.  Marner is going to have a huge incentive to have a career year.  Let's hope he busts out for 100+ points in the regular season, leads his line, and crushes it in the playoffs.  If he has a great season end crushes it in the playoffs, everything will be forgotten and we'll be happy to pay him boatloads.  I am looking forward to seeing him work his magic next year!

 

[herman]

I'm on Natural Stat Trick looking at Playoffs 2022-2024 individual point rates in all situations (because the Leafs never really make it that far) with at least 50 min of ice time in that span. Some of the number could just be ties with whatever NST uses for tie breaking

Crosby is #1 at 4.9 per 60 (only 6 games played)
McDavid #2 with 4.64 per 60

First full time Leaf is Nylander at #39 at 2.85 pts per 60
Matthews at #42 with 2.84 pts per 60
Marner at #57 with 2.61 per 60


If we go even strength only
#1 Crosby 4.75 pts per 60
Connor McDavid falls to #4  at 3.38 pts per 60
41 Auston Matthews 2.46 per 60
48 William Nylander 2.37 per 60
55 Matthew Knies 2.3 per 60
56 Mitch Marner 2.29 pts per 60


Let's measure clutchness: Pts/60 when the score is within 1 all situations (crazy small sample)
78 Matthew Knies 2.21
88 William Nylander 2.14
133 Mitch Marner 1.84
144 Auston Matthews 1.78

 

[herman]

https://x.com/tlndc/status/1817200543808553446
I wish these two were fully healthy for rd 1.

What?s up with everyone on the team firing change ups.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/tlndc/status/1817200543808553446

Simon Benoit's top speed coming in at 22.56 mph was not something I would have guessed. That's higher than Lily and McCabe's, and just a shade under Rielly's. It's also higher than Dewar, Domi, Marner, Matthews, Nylander's top speeds. So that kinda feels a little off. I wish there was like an "average top speed" category for this stuff that took the average of a players top 10 speed bursts or something like that. I think that would more accurately describe who the fastest skaters are.

 

[herman]

Simon Benoit's top speed coming in at 22.56 mph was not something I would have guessed. That's higher than Lily and McCabe's, and just a shade under Rielly's. It's also higher than Dewar, Domi, Marner, Matthews, Nylander's top speeds. So that kinda feels a little off. I wish there was like an "average top speed" category for this stuff that took the average of a players top 10 speed bursts or something like that. I think that would more accurately describe who the fastest skaters are.

I suspect that one burst was one of those oopsie giveaways that he had to hustle back on. The other top speeds clocked were Rielly and Kampf, for likely similar things.

All the numbers are telling us is that this team generally played slower than they were capable of skating, by team structure design. We'll find out when next season's numbers get rolled up again for summer content.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Marner's numbers are also a little bizarre:

This season his top speed was clocked at 21.73 mph, and was credited with 40 bursts over 20 mph (in 69 games).

In 22/23 his top speed was clocked at 22.11 mph, and was credited with 113 bursts over 20 mph (in 80 games).

In 21/22 his top speed was clocked at 22.59 mph, and was credit with 96 bursts over 20 mph (in 72 games).

 

[herman]

Marner's numbers are also a little bizarre:

This season his top speed was clocked at 21.73 mph, and was credited with 40 bursts over 20 mph (in 69 games).

In 22/23 his top speed was clocked at 22.11 mph, and was credited with 113 bursts over 20 mph (in 80 games).

In 21/22 his top speed was clocked at 22.59 mph, and was credit with 96 bursts over 20 mph (in 72 games).

I don't think there was a systematic error (Nylander's three years of data look similar throughout). Marner looked like he was pacing himself most nights (still got points due to TOI with the right people), and then the injury basically set him up with nothing for the last quarter and playoffs.

 

[Bullfrog]

I don't think there was a systematic error (Nylander's three years of data look similar throughout). Marner looked like he was pacing himself most nights (still got points due to TOI with the right people) supreme talent, and then the injury basically set him up with nothing for the last quarter and playoffs.

 

[herman]

I don't think there was a systematic error (Nylander's three years of data look similar throughout). Marner looked like he was pacing himself most nights (still got points due to TOI with the right people) supreme talent, and then the injury basically set him up with nothing for the last quarter and playoffs.

He really profiles out statistically like an exceptional offensive defenseman.

 

[herman]

Playing with some PP ideas: let's go back to split units to get more players involved and fuel some internal competition and reduce predictability.

Big and scary
OEL
Matthews-McMann-Nylander
Knies
This is a murderer's row of shooters across the middle, with an umbrella of underrated playmaking so you really can't tell who is going to shoot. OEL's right-handedness gives a quicker slip pass to Matthews' side, or feeding into Nylander: i.e. the most effective goal scoring play in the game (RH one-timer from the left side).  He also can really fire it from distance. McMann and Knies are both quick and effective puck getters and have heavy shots themselves. If the straight up look doesn't give much opportunity, Nylander can swing low and take his pick of shooters to feed.

EDIT: Wait a minute, OEL is a lefty. Was I thinking about Klingberg...

Feisty
Rielly
Marner-Domi-Robertson
Tavares

This just has to be the Jim Hiller Plinko PP; feed Marner on his strong side half wall and he takes it downhill to either square up an open Domi in the slot or Tavares in tight or a quick triangle play. Robertson on clean up/heavy threat for seam plays if PK overcommits down low.

 

[cabber24]

Playing with some PP ideas: let's go back to split units to get more players involved and fuel some internal competition and reduce predictability.

Big and scary
OEL
Matthews-McMann-Nylander
Knies
This is a murderer's row of shooters across the middle, with an umbrella of underrated playmaking so you really can't tell who is going to shoot. OEL's right-handedness gives a quicker slip pass to Matthews' side, or feeding into Nylander: i.e. the most effective goal scoring play in the game (RH one-timer from the left side).  He also can really fire it from distance. McMann and Knies are both quick and effective puck getters and have heavy shots themselves. If the straight up look doesn't give much opportunity, Nylander can swing low and take his pick of shooters to feed.

Feisty
Rielly
Marner-Domi-Robertson
Tavares

This just has to be the Jim Hiller Plinko PP; feed Marner on his strong side half wall and he takes it downhill to either square up an open Domi in the slot or Tavares in tight or a quick triangle play. Robertson on clean up/heavy threat for seam plays if PK overcommits down low.

I wouldn't mind seeing more of Timothy on the PP as well. I think we have some untapped potential there. I hope he gets an opportunity to play more this year.

 

[herman]

I wouldn't mind seeing more of Timothy on the PP as well. I think we have some untapped potential there. I hope he gets an opportunity to play more this year.

If there is no Robertson extension, then I can see Liljegren getting a spot there in a 3-2 configuration alongside Rielly. More likely it starts out as Cowan for an insufferable London Knights PP unit until he is sent back down for the WJC, and then it's Liljegren or Alex Nylander if he converts to an NHL deal.

Rielly
Marner-Domi-Cowan
Tavares

 

[herman]

Jani Haakanpaa: 6'7" RD 1.5M AAV 32 y.o. very solid NHL d-man, might be broken, might not be signed officially

Philippe Myers: 6'6" RD 775k 27 y.o. decent skater, some NHL exp

Nicolas Mattinen: 6'6" RD 775k 26 y.o. decent skater, no NHL exp, legitimate bomb of a shot

One way or another, we are going to slot in a 6'6"+ RD in to PK.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If Mattinen works out we're going to need to sign Eemeli Rasanen asap too just in case.

 

[ZBBM]

When Hildeby is in net scoring on us will be like trying to navigate a grove of sequoias.

 

[herman]

I was thinking more along the lines of Stephen Desrocher, rather than Rasanen (who did not have a good read on his own abilities).

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/APetrielli/status/1821925175048224814
Gotta say, most of the problems identified stem from coaching that either went stale or couldn't think to do things differently (until there was no runway left).