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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

herman

Well-known member
Locker clean out coming up Monday so we?ll see how injured everyone was and how fired the coaching staff will be.
 
My predictions.

Shanny gone
Keefe gone
Marner stays
Edmonson re-signs
Domi re-signs
Bertuzzi, Brodie, Gio gone
Lyubushkin gone
Sammy gone

Maybe the can trade Marner or Tavares, or maybe they want to, but they won't due to NMC and the market in general.
 
Bill_Berg_is_pissed_off said:
My predictions.

Shanny gone
Keefe gone
Marner stays
Edmonson re-signs
Domi re-signs
Bertuzzi, Brodie, Gio gone
Lyubushkin gone
Sammy gone

Maybe the can trade Marner or Tavares, or maybe they want to, but they won't due to NMC and the market in general.

Decent predictions! I think it's possible Shanny gets one more year, but I'll be pretty pissed about that.
 
Season/post-season review

Gamers and clutch performers:
Matthews: 69 goals and selke finalist while battling illness in the final stretch
Nylander: hard carried the team for the first half and happened to score all their only goals in elimination games even though someone keeps saying he played poorly ?\_(?)_/?
McCabe: got settled into a role, and just was an adult the whole season, eating pucks, taking out bodies, and moving the puck. We miss Muzzin a lot, but he was better than Muzzin-lite.
Domi: poor start to the season but he kept covering gaps in the roster and performing when needed for his pay grade. A defensive liability at times but sparked a lot of fire and attitude throughout the roster.
Knies: first full season visibly wore on him after playing well above his head for stretches of the season. Rounded into form for the playoffs and will be a key driver for the next era of the Leafs.
Benoit: got better as the season settled in for him and has really found a match with McCabe. For a reclamation project, this first season was a pleasant surprise.
McMann: hard to credit the coaching staff for anything here as they were planning to scratch or relegate him to 4th line purgatory until injuries forced their hand.

Adequate:
Robertson, Jarnkrok, Woll, Lyubushkin, Dewar, Holmberg, Tavares, Kampf, Jones, Reaves, Edmundson

Oof:
Marner: distracted start? He had like one goodish month and then was felled by a self-inflicted injury right after the deadline and didn?t have enough time to get back into form, and lost his sidekick job. He hasn?t added anything new to his game in multiple seasons now and his contract is down to one year left. It?s hard to see any justification for paying anything more than he?s getting now, even with the rising cap. The fan base is ready for heads to roll and Marner is not the type who can shut that noise out; there is a good argument to be made that divorce would benefit both parties more than trying to stick out something that can quickly turn toxic.
Brodie, Giordano: time remains undefeated and there were some mitigating circumstances (both of them lost parents), but the team could no longer rely on them even in spot duty.
Rielly: if he was regular playoff Rielly I think the regular season?s unevenness would?ve been forgotten, but he just seemed out of sync all season.
Bertuzzi: just not great value if there is no actual production and just sideshow. 
Samsonov: prone to bad goals and prone to letting that throw off his game. I don?t think the Leafs play in the way that benefits a reaction goalie.
Coaching Staff: no one should be safe other than the video coaches. Ridiculous lack of adjustment in the face of challenge or opportunity. There was no real lack of personnel. If they had the right messaging, then they did not get the motivation part right to get players executing before it was too late.
 
herman said:
Season/post-season review

Gamers and clutch performers:
Matthews: 69 goals and selke finalist while battling illness in the final stretch
Nylander: hard carried the team for the first half and happened to score all their only goals in elimination games even though someone keeps saying he played poorly ?\_(?)_/?
McCabe: got settled into a role, and just was an adult the whole season, eating pucks, taking out bodies, and moving the puck. We miss Muzzin a lot, but he was better than Muzzin-lite.
Domi: poor start to the season but he kept covering gaps in the roster and performing when needed for his pay grade. A defensive liability at times but sparked a lot of fire and attitude throughout the roster.
Knies: first full season visibly wore on him after playing well above his head for stretches of the season. Rounded into form for the playoffs and will be a key driver for the next era of the Leafs.
Benoit: got better as the season settled in for him and has really found a match with McCabe. For a reclamation project, this first season was a pleasant surprise.
McMann: hard to credit the coaching staff for anything here as they were planning to scratch or relegate him to 4th line purgatory until injuries forced their hand.

Adequate:
Robertson, Jarnkrok, Woll, Lyubushkin, Dewar, Holmberg, Tavares, Kampf, Jones, Reaves, Edmundson

Oof:
Marner: distracted start? He had like one goodish month and then was felled by a self-inflicted injury right after the deadline and didn?t have enough time to get back into form, and lost his sidekick job. He hasn?t added anything new to his game in multiple seasons now and his contract is down to one year left. It?s hard to see and justification for paying anything more than he?s getting now, even with the rising cap. The fan base is ready for heads to roll and Marner is not the type who can shut that noise out; there is a good argument to be made that divorce would benefit both parties more than trying to stick out something that can quickly turn toxic.
Brodie, Giordano: time remains undefeated and there were some mitigating circumstances (both of them lost parents), but the team could no longer rely on them even in spot duty.
Rielly: if he was regular playoff Rielly I think the regular season?s unevenness would?ve been forgotten, but he just seemed out of sync all season.
Bertuzzi: just not great value if there is no actual production and just sideshow. 
Samsonov: prone to bad goals and prone to letting that throw off his game. I don?t think the Leafs play in the way that benefits a reaction goalie.
Coaching Staff: no one should be safe other than the video coaches. Ridiculous lack of adjustment in the face of challenge or opportunity. There was no real lack of personnel. If they had the right messaging, then they did not get the motivation part right to get players executing before it was too late.

Good write-up!
 
I think herman is too dismissive of Marner and too enamored of Nylander to be an entirely objective observer of those two but it's hard to deny that Marner had a down season and Nylander seems to be finding his best level.  His other predictions are pretty solid.

All you folks who want to dump Marner be careful what you wish for.  He's an elite talent and I'd love to see what a different coach might be able to spur him to.

I would just point out something that might otherwise get lost in the disappointment, which is that Treliving did a good job overall and a very good job at the deadline.  His additions of Lyubushkin and Edmundson had more positive impact in this series that anything Dubas ever did.  I hope they both stay.  And he added Benoit, who was a found-money home run, including against the Bs.  Our shitty PP and not good enough goaltending from Sammy were our downfall ? not the play of the D corps (Rielly perhaps aside).  With Brodie and Giordano gone (and thanks to both of those guys for some good years) they have a chance to add another d-man to a corps that suddenly doesn't look all that bad.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
All you folks who want to dump Marner be careful what you wish for.  He's an elite talent and I'd love to see what a different coach might be able to spur him to.

For those after dramatic change, Marner's contract status will be tantalising. Particularly after signing bonuses get paid on July 1, and the big cap hit comes along with only $775k of actual salary. Just that one pesky obstacle of his NMC preventing you from transforming him into whatever piece you wish to dream on most.
 
https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1787267925486846251
https://x.com/reporterchris/status/1787273527789244791
This is going to generate so much revenue for Bell/Rogers
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
I think herman is too dismissive of Marner and too enamored of Nylander to be an entirely objective observer of those two but it's hard to deny that Marner had a down season and Nylander seems to be finding his best level.  His other predictions are pretty solid.

All you folks who want to dump Marner be careful what you wish for.  He's an elite talent and I'd love to see what a different coach might be able to spur him to.
I think the most likely outcome is a new coach with Marner staying for now. I've wondered for a few years whether a different coach could push the group higher. Personally don't think so, but still believe it's the most likely outcome. 

 
https://x.com/theoakleafs/status/1671920875526844416
This is last year?s tally. Adding this year?s game 5-7

Matthews 6G 4A (only 1 GP added)
Tavares 5G 4A
Nylander 6G 7A
Marner 0G 5A
 
Chris said:
I think the most likely outcome is a new coach with Marner staying for now. I've wondered for a few years whether a different coach could push the group higher. Personally don't think so, but still believe it's the most likely outcome.

That?s the ?easiest? outcome for sure. Keefe coached to maximize Marner?s production and was rewarded with one decent series against Tampa last season.
 
herman said:
Season/post-season review
...snip...
Marner: distracted start? He had like one goodish month and then was felled by a self-inflicted injury right after the deadline and didn?t have enough time to get back into form, and lost his sidekick job. He hasn?t added anything new to his game in multiple seasons now and his contract is down to one year left. It?s hard to see and justification for paying anything more than he?s getting now, even with the rising cap. The fan base is ready for heads to roll and Marner is not the type who can shut that noise out; there is a good argument to be made that divorce would benefit both parties more than trying to stick out something that can quickly turn toxic.

I agree with just about the whole rundown, except some of this about Marner

I agree that he doesn't deserve more than $11M AAV on his next deal. The implication there (for me) is that he almost certainly won't be offered $12.5M for 7 years by anyone else. That's The Guy money, and he's not quite been able to hack it as a sidekick.

There's little trade value there, and hasn't been since the NMC kicked in. I'd just let him play it out here under a new coach, unless whoever's coaching the team next season has no use for him.

 
herman said:
https://twitter.com/theoakleafs/status/1671920875526844416
This is last year?s tally. Adding this year?s game 5-7

Matthews 6G 4A (only 1 GP added)
Tavares 5G 4A
Nylander 6G 7A
Marner 0G 5A

I didn't notice Marner much at all the entire series. Granted I had stopped watching the game by the time he scored his goal in game 4. 
 
Matthews with the Rocket, and now nominated for the Selke.

That's the first time this combo has happened...just the nomination while winning the Rocket.

https://editorinleaf.com/posts/auston-matthews-nominated-for-selke-trophy-01hx5sg9ghej

Crazy!
 
Frank E said:
Matthews with the Rocket, and now nominated for the Selke.

That's the first time this combo has happened...just the nomination while winning the Rocket.

https://editorinleaf.com/posts/auston-matthews-nominated-for-selke-trophy-01hx5sg9ghej

Crazy!

Nominated for the Lady Byng, too. He really is a unicorn.
 
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