Where are we in terms of winning a Cup?

[azzurri63]

So after last nights debacle and yes it is only one game but deep down what's everyones opinion on this team. Have we made progress, have we faltered? I think we have faltered as it seems we keep bringing up some of the same stuff over and over again, The real issues although we lost Klingberg who was brought in to help the D have never been addressed since Dubas took over. Our D has been mediocre for years, goaltending never addressed and here we are. That plus a coach who can't seem to adapt, install some kind of defensive system nor get his team up for games against shit teams makes me think we are in for another disappointing spring. You need guys that play as hard at both ends of the ice. Watching overdrive Hayes stated today there were some plays last night from our stars that was complete garbage, were very soft defensively and made it super easy for the Sabres and resulted in the puck in our net. I've said it before the core of this team and others is easy to play against. You see it a lot struggling players or teams seem to wake up against us. Coincidence. I think not it's just how the team was built and it starts with the soft core who none of them have one ounce of nastiness. I honestly think this is another wasted season unless Tre makes some bold moves. I know a lot of you will bash this post that's ok but convince me what's different. Thoughts.

 

[Chris]

Nowhere near being a serious Cup contender. Just look at the goaltending and the defense group. I think we'd need to add at least 1 top 4 defender, probably another tough-to-play against forward (sorry but the Domi-Robertson combo is not playoff material), and the goaltending needs to be sorted out somehow. Whether that is Woll getting healthy (and staying that way) and returning to form, or Samsonov finally getting out of his own way, or something else (trade/waivers/Hildeby miracle) I don't know. Seems like a lot to ask for though.

Regarding team defense - the strange thing is, this team _has_ played really solid team defense at times over the past few years. So they are capable, and Keefe seems capable of implementing such a system. Then the question becomes, why are they not executing it now...why do other teams seem to be able to free wheel through the Leaf zone whenever they want? Are the Leafs cheating for offense, just not committed to it (tuned out coaching maybe)...what?

My gut feeling is that one window for this team has closed. The next one opens when the Tavares contract expires. While I like JT, he's not worth the $11 million he's taking up. Replace him with 2 $5.5 million players, hopefully one who is a good dman. By that time we should have new coach and _maybe_ one of Marner/Nylander is no longer with the team. That's another $10 mill or so that can be used to fill out the rest of the roster with guys who can make a difference come playoff time.

Any winning this group does this year will be gravy but I expect it will be another first or second round exit.

 

[azzurri63]

Nowhere near being a serious Cup contender. Just look at the goaltending and the defense group. I think we'd need to add at least 1 top 4 defender, probably another tough-to-play against forward (sorry but the Domi-Robertson combo is not playoff material), and the goaltending needs to be sorted out somehow. Whether that is Woll getting healthy (and staying that way) and returning to form, or Samsonov finally getting out of his own way, or something else (trade/waivers/Hildeby miracle) I don't know. Seems like a lot to ask for though.

Regarding team defense - the strange thing is, this team _has_ played really solid team defense at times over the past few years. So they are capable, and Keefe seems capable of implementing such a system. Then the question becomes, why are they not executing it now...why do other teams seem to be able to free wheel through the Leaf zone whenever they want? Are the Leafs cheating for offense, just not committed to it (tuned out coaching maybe)...what?

My gut feeling is that one window for this team has closed. The next one opens when the Tavares contract expires. While I like JT, he's not worth the $11 million he's taking up. Replace him with 2 $5.5 million players, hopefully one who is a good dman. By that time we should have new coach and _maybe_ one of Marner/Nylander is no longer with the team. That's another $10 mill or so that can be used to fill out the rest of the roster with guys who can make a difference come playoff time.

Any winning this group does this year will be gravy but I expect it will be another first or second round exit.

I?ve never liked how we?ve played defense with Keefe behind the bench. Ya the numbers weren?t bad last year but I think the overall style of play is too wide open. It can be argued winning with offence but I think you need to be sound defensively to win a cup. Leafs aren?t that and I honestly don?t think they were last year. Numbers were better because Sammy played better this year he?s struggling and when Woll has played he won us some points alone. Backend needs upgrading and the players need to play harder, tougher and better defensively as a group.

 

[Arn]

We?re one of a few teams who is there or thereabouts but reliant on unexpected events like a random goalie and/or third line forward to get on a hot streak at the right time.

 

[archie holdsworth]

We?re one of a few teams who is there or thereabouts but reliant on unexpected events like a random goalie and/or third line forward to get on a hot streak at the right time.

That's largely my view as well. This year's team could get hot at the right time. They can score and I think they might be a bit tougher to play against. That's a very qualified 'might', though. They could also be forechecked into the ice and boxed out as in previous years. Depends on what Treliving is able to do between now and playoffs.

Bigger picture, I hope that the Leafs are able to put together a solid, well structured team within the Matthews contract term. Goaltending, defense, possibly coaching, Nylander's contract, Tavares next contract if there is one, trades, etc. The list goes on as to what probably needs to get done if one is to consider the Leafs a serious cup contender.

 

[cw]

Odds makers have the Leafs as contenders and most have all season.
They're one of the top offensive teams in the league with a suspect defense that was known last summer. That weaker defense has been hampered by injuries to dmen and Woll and a sub par performance from Samsonov (in part due to the weaker defensive talent compared to last season).
Leafs Pts win% is in the top 1/3rd of the league which corroborates the above.

Because of the known weakness on defense and center depth, they're currently not among the favorites. Again, I think we've known that since last summer so that shouldn't come as a shock.

If the Leafs:
1. Get Woll back capable of playing at the level he was when he got hurt. (He's a young goalie so that is not automatic)
2. Get a decent top 4 righthanded dman
3. Get a 2-way center to help defensively and help 3rd line scoring

If the Leafs get those three things (EDIT: and they do not suffer any more significant injuries), then they probably raise their chances of winning a Cup to around where they were last season: about a 10% chance of having a parade.

 

[Arn]

Odds makers have the Leafs as contenders and most have all season.
They're one of the top offensive teams in the league with a suspect defense that was known last summer. That weaker defense has been hampered by injuries to dmen and Woll and a sub par performance from Samsonov (in part due to the weaker defensive talent compared to last season).
Leafs Pts win% is in the top 1/3rd of the league which corroborates the above.

Because of the known weakness on defense and center depth, they're currently not among the favorites. Again, I think we've known that since last summer so that shouldn't come as a shock.

If the Leafs:
1. Get Woll back capable of playing at the level he was when he got hurt. (He's a young goalie so that is not automatic)
2. Get a decent top 4 righthanded dman
3. Get a 2-way center to help defensively and help 3rd line scoring

If the Leafs get those three things (EDIT: and they do not suffer any more significant injuries), then they probably raise their chances of winning a Cup to around where they were last season: about a 10% chance of having a parade.

I?d say even if they do, say, 2 of those things, and something like Matthews gets on a run like his current run in the playoffs they?d have a higher than 10% chance.

It?s just how parity and chance and luck all meshes.

 

[cw]

Odds makers have the Leafs as contenders and most have all season.
They're one of the top offensive teams in the league with a suspect defense that was known last summer. That weaker defense has been hampered by injuries to dmen and Woll and a sub par performance from Samsonov (in part due to the weaker defensive talent compared to last season).
Leafs Pts win% is in the top 1/3rd of the league which corroborates the above.

Because of the known weakness on defense and center depth, they're currently not among the favorites. Again, I think we've known that since last summer so that shouldn't come as a shock.

If the Leafs:
1. Get Woll back capable of playing at the level he was when he got hurt. (He's a young goalie so that is not automatic)
2. Get a decent top 4 righthanded dman
3. Get a 2-way center to help defensively and help 3rd line scoring

If the Leafs get those three things (EDIT: and they do not suffer any more significant injuries), then they probably raise their chances of winning a Cup to around where they were last season: about a 10% chance of having a parade.

I?d say even if they do, say, 2 of those things, and something like Matthews gets on a run like his current run in the playoffs they?d have a higher than 10% chance.

It?s just how parity and chance and luck all meshes.

Boston last year was exceptionally high: 22-33% (it varied in that range as I recall)

When you have parity, more teams are in it which dilutes the chances of any particular team.

Last year, Leafs were one of a four teams (not many) with a 10% or better chance. Here's one set of odds fram April 2023
https://www.fanduel.com/research/2022-23-stanley-cup-outright-betting-odds-can-anyone-beat-the-boston-bruins

Here's this years odds at FOX
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nhl/2023-24-nhl-odds-every-teams-stanley-cup-title-futures
+750 = 11.8% chance - which is the best chance to win shared by the Bruins, Avs & Rangers
They have the Leafs currently at +1200 which is a 7.5% chance to win a Cup.
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

Last year, around the deadline, the Leafs added O'Reilly, Schenn, Acciari, Lafferty & Gustavsson while losing Sandin via trade. That got them to a 10% chance. This year, they're unlikely to get any center as good as O'Reilly. They could get a top 4 dman better than Schenn. So they might hit 10% but with fewer assets they can afford to trade, it wouldn't shock me if they were a little less than that.

It's been like that roughly for decades - definitely tighter with parity since the 2005 post lockout cap.

If you look at all the 1st rounders they 'spent':
https://theathletic.com/5155109/2023/12/26/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-assets/
2019 Los Angeles Jake Muzzin
2020 Carolina Getting rid of Patrick Marleau
2021 Columbus Nick Foligno
2022 Chicago Getting rid of Petr Mrazek
2023 St. Louis Ryan O'Reilly/Noel Acciari
2025 Chicago Jake McCabe/Sam Lafferty

They only have McCabe for another year to show for all those picks now.
And those deals only bumped their chances a very few percentage points.
OTH, if the GM doesn't take their shot, they may never get another ...
It's a crazy business.
Close to $100 million in cap and LTIR and all this handwringing for one roll of a ten sided dice in the spring.

 

[Bender]

I understand they need to spend in order to be contenders but my god that is some bad asset management. It'd be nice to have someone like Hagel to show for it.

 

[ZBBM]

I understand they need to spend in order to be contenders but my god that is some bad asset management. It'd be nice to have someone like Hagel to show for it.

That's why, as much as I liked Dubas as a person, he had to go.  Totally misjudged the real chances of winning in his early years ? and they had enough talent on hand that it shouldn't have taken them so long to win a round.

 

[cw]

I understand they need to spend in order to be contenders but my god that is some bad asset management. It'd be nice to have someone like Hagel to show for it.

That's why, as much as I liked Dubas as a person, he had to go.  Totally misjudged the real chances of winning in his early years ? and they had enough talent on hand that it shouldn't have taken them so long to win a round.

Lamoriello arguably has some responsibility for the Marleau contract.
I too think Dubas got too aggressive too soon. Thought so at the time.
With the cap, they needed a flow of economical youth flowing on to the roster.
They have a tough decision this March. The assets required to get what they need will truly mortgage the near future.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

I understand they need to spend in order to be contenders but my god that is some bad asset management. It'd be nice to have someone like Hagel to show for it.

That's why, as much as I liked Dubas as a person, he had to go.  Totally misjudged the real chances of winning in his early years ? and they had enough talent on hand that it shouldn't have taken them so long to win a round.

I understand they need to spend in order to be contenders but my god that is some bad asset management. It'd be nice to have someone like Hagel to show for it.

That's why, as much as I liked Dubas as a person, he had to go.  Totally misjudged the real chances of winning in his early years ? and they had enough talent on hand that it shouldn't have taken them so long to win a round.

Lamoriello arguably has some responsibility for the Marleau contract.
I too think Dubas got too aggressive too soon. Thought so at the time.
With the cap, they needed a flow of economical youth flowing on to the roster.
They have a tough decision this March. The assets required to get what they need will truly mortgage the near future.

They drafted Matthews and decided they were going for it.  Traded for Andersen and it was downhill from there in regards to asset management. 

They should have tanked for another couple years at least. 

 

[Bender]

I understand they need to spend in order to be contenders but my god that is some bad asset management. It'd be nice to have someone like Hagel to show for it.

That's why, as much as I liked Dubas as a person, he had to go.  Totally misjudged the real chances of winning in his early years ? and they had enough talent on hand that it shouldn't have taken them so long to win a round.

I understand they need to spend in order to be contenders but my god that is some bad asset management. It'd be nice to have someone like Hagel to show for it.

That's why, as much as I liked Dubas as a person, he had to go.  Totally misjudged the real chances of winning in his early years ? and they had enough talent on hand that it shouldn't have taken them so long to win a round.

Lamoriello arguably has some responsibility for the Marleau contract.
I too think Dubas got too aggressive too soon. Thought so at the time.
With the cap, they needed a flow of economical youth flowing on to the roster.
They have a tough decision this March. The assets required to get what they need will truly mortgage the near future.

They drafted Matthews and decided they were going for it.  Traded for Andersen and it was downhill from there in regards to asset management. 

They should have tanked for another couple years at least.

They definitely needed a few more cost controlled pieces and up and coming young talent to supplement or at least have trade chips. What do we have now?

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

I understand they need to spend in order to be contenders but my god that is some bad asset management. It'd be nice to have someone like Hagel to show for it.

That's why, as much as I liked Dubas as a person, he had to go.  Totally misjudged the real chances of winning in his early years ? and they had enough talent on hand that it shouldn't have taken them so long to win a round.

Lamoriello arguably has some responsibility for the Marleau contract.
I too think Dubas got too aggressive too soon. Thought so at the time.
With the cap, they needed a flow of economical youth flowing on to the roster.
They have a tough decision this March. The assets required to get what they need will truly mortgage the near future.

They drafted Matthews and decided they were going for it.  Traded for Andersen and it was downhill from there in regards to asset management. 

They should have tanked for another couple years at least.

They definitely needed a few more cost controlled pieces and up and coming young talent to supplement or at least have trade chips. What do we have now?

BUPKIS. 

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

I understand they need to spend in order to be contenders but my god that is some bad asset management. It'd be nice to have someone like Hagel to show for it.

That's why, as much as I liked Dubas as a person, he had to go.  Totally misjudged the real chances of winning in his early years ? and they had enough talent on hand that it shouldn't have taken them so long to win a round.

I understand they need to spend in order to be contenders but my god that is some bad asset management. It'd be nice to have someone like Hagel to show for it.

That's why, as much as I liked Dubas as a person, he had to go.  Totally misjudged the real chances of winning in his early years ? and they had enough talent on hand that it shouldn't have taken them so long to win a round.

Lamoriello arguably has some responsibility for the Marleau contract.
I too think Dubas got too aggressive too soon. Thought so at the time.
With the cap, they needed a flow of economical youth flowing on to the roster.
They have a tough decision this March. The assets required to get what they need will truly mortgage the near future.

I'd definitely be exploring what Domi and Bertuzzi could return in a trade since chances of success this season are low. Possibly Brodie too. Get some assets back and then look to push on the next two seasons.

 

[Chris]

I'd definitely be exploring what Domi and Bertuzzi could return in a trade since chances of success this season are low. Possibly Brodie too. Get some assets back and then look to push on the next two seasons.

Interesting thought. I think that has to tie in with their plans for Nylander, or perhaps more precisely, the "core 4." Can they sign Nylander to a contract that somehow works (and do they want to), or is he just going to want too much. The tricky thing is, Tavares will have one more year on that $11 million deal...Nylander's new contract will overlap that last Tavares year. So do they really believe in this core group...if so, next year might be a step back year since Nylander will be eating up another $3-4 million most likely. But then things get easier financially when the Tavares money becomes available...so as I've said before, maybe the next best "window" really opens up after next year.

Personally, I'd like to see what this group might be able to accomplish with a different coach behind the bench, but I also would not be against immediately (or when it works out) moving a core piece.

 

[Highlander]

Were one Beast and one Wall (sorry Woll) away from solving our goaltending

 

[Chris]

Were one Beast and one Wall (sorry Woll) away from solving our goaltending

Maybe. Or maybe not. Hildeby is 22 and has played 16 AHL games. Woll can't stay healthy. At this point though, I think they have to give Hildeby a shot. The status quo cannot continue.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Were one Beast and one Wall (sorry Woll) away from solving our goaltending

Maybe. Or maybe not. Hildeby is 22 and has played 16 AHL games. Woll can't stay healthy. At this point though, I think they have to give Hildeby a shot. The status quo cannot continue.

And Jones isn't the answer. I'm reluctant to bring Hildeby up but there isn't much choice right now. Maybe they bring Peteuzzelli up and run with Jones and hope he can give us some solid goaltending.

 

[Chris]

Were one Beast and one Wall (sorry Woll) away from solving our goaltending

Maybe. Or maybe not. Hildeby is 22 and has played 16 AHL games. Woll can't stay healthy. At this point though, I think they have to give Hildeby a shot. The status quo cannot continue.

And Jones isn't the answer. I'm reluctant to bring Hildeby up but there isn't much choice right now. Maybe they bring Peteuzzelli up and run with Jones and hope he can give us some solid goaltending.

Petruzelli with the .879 save% in the AHL...I'd rather give Hildeby a few games first but it is risky.