Standings- position

[losveratos]

Hey tomorrow we can cheer for the Sabres. 

Sat Afternoon NYI plays the Jets.  So before our next game we might know more.  Who would we root for on Sat?

How about we root for us on Saturday?

 

[Zee]

I know people are thinking it's a longshot that the Leafs miss the playoffs, but let me paint a roadmap that shows you exactly how that isn't so far fetched.  Let's assume the Leafs lose their remaining 4 games (and the way they've been playing lately that's NOT a stretch).  So let's say the Leafs finish the season with 53 points.

Rangers : (currently 48 points) go 3-1-1
@Buffalo OTL
NJ W
@Florida W
@Carolina W
NJ L

55 points with that record

Islanders (currently 51 points) go 2-1-1
@Winnipeg  OTL
@Carolina W
@Philly W
@Buffalo L

56 points with that record

Ottawa (currently 52 points) go 2-3
Leafs W
Pittsburgh L
@Washington L
Philly W
Boston L

56 points with that record

Winnipeg (currently 48 points) go 3-1
Islanders W (OT)
@Buffalo W
@Washington L
Montreal W
54 points with that record

Washington (currently 50 points) go 3-1
@Montreal W
Winnipeg W
Ottawa W
Boston L
56 points with that record

 

[Zee]

I'm fairly impressed with my roadmap.  Even took into account all teams playing each other like Jets/Isles and Jets/Caps.  If this comes to pass you can crown me Nostradamus.

 

[YYZ]

I'm fairly impressed with my roadmap.  Even took into account all teams playing each other like Jets/Isles and Jets/Caps.  If this comes to pass you can crown me Nostradamus.

Ottawa fighting for their playoff lives.
Tampa and Florida looking to play spoiler.
Habs being the Habs.


Yup, Leafs are screwed.

 

[Zee]

I'm fairly impressed with my roadmap.  Even took into account all teams playing each other like Jets/Isles and Jets/Caps.  If this comes to pass you can crown me Nostradamus.

Ottawa fighting for their playoff lives.
Tampa and Florida looking to play spoiler.
Habs being the Habs.


Yup, Leafs are screwed.

You would think the Florida game would be an easy win cause they stink, but then look at the schedule, it's the 2nd game of a back to back and Florida doesn't play the night before.  Leafs usually lose the 2nd game of a back to back especially with the other team rested.

 

[gunnar36]

I know people are thinking it's a longshot that the Leafs miss the playoffs, but let me paint a roadmap that shows you exactly how that isn't so far fetched.  Let's assume the Leafs lose their remaining 4 games (and the way they've been playing lately that's NOT a stretch).  So let's say the Leafs finish the season with 53 points.

Rangers : (currently 48 points) go 3-1-1
@Buffalo OTL
NJ W
@Florida W
@Carolina W
NJ L

55 points with that record

Islanders (currently 51 points) go 2-1-1
@Winnipeg  OTL
@Carolina W
@Philly W
@Buffalo L

56 points with that record

Ottawa (currently 52 points) go 2-3
Leafs W
Pittsburgh L
@Washington L
Philly W
Boston L

56 points with that record

Winnipeg (currently 48 points) go 3-1
Islanders W (OT)
@Buffalo W
@Washington L
Montreal W
54 points with that record

Washington (currently 50 points) go 3-1
@Montreal W
Winnipeg W
Ottawa W
Boston L
56 points with that record

Zee, I am with you.  This play-off spot is far from being locked down, especially considering the ugly hockey we have played the last 3 games. 

 

[PG]

Florida is really, really bad though.

 

[leafplasma]

I don't fear missing the playoffs but I fear sinking further in the standings which I am not too happy about.  Probably where we should be anyway though considering nobody picked this team to make it in the first place.

 

[ZBBM]

I'm fairly impressed with my roadmap.  Even took into account all teams playing each other like Jets/Isles and Jets/Caps.  If this comes to pass you can crown me Nostradamus.

What's the probability of all those things happening?  Because that's where would-be Nostradamuses fall on their faces.

You see, it's not only that the Leafs would HAVE to go 0-4 (which, despite your "not a stretch" comment is exactly that), that would have to happen AND everything else on the list would have to happen.  Not "and/or" (which would be a huge difference).  Chain all those together and your map becomes quite improbable.  Which it is.

 

[Zee]

I'm fairly impressed with my roadmap.  Even took into account all teams playing each other like Jets/Isles and Jets/Caps.  If this comes to pass you can crown me Nostradamus.

What's the probability of all those things happening?  Because that's where would-be Nostradamuses fall on their faces.

You see, it's not only that the Leafs would HAVE to go 0-4 (which, despite your "not a stretch" comment is exactly that), that would have to happen AND everything else on the list would have to happen.  Not "and/or" (which would be a huge difference).  Chain all those together and your map becomes quite improbable.  Which it is.

It's not though, it's not like every team has to run the table and win all their remaining games.  Ottawa doesn't even have to go .500 to pass the Leafs if the Leafs go 0-4.  With all the teams I listed being desperate for wins, I can easily see them beating the likes of Florida/Carolina/Buffalo which most of them play.  All the teams I listed only need to get to 54 points if the Leafs go 0-4.  You can take away a win from each team I listed with 56 and they still do it.

Saturday's game at 3pm will be huge between Islanders/Winnipeg.  If Jets win that game it puts pressure on Leafs for Saturday night.  I'll rest alot easier if Jets lose that outright.

 

[ZBBM]

I'm fairly impressed with my roadmap.  Even took into account all teams playing each other like Jets/Isles and Jets/Caps.  If this comes to pass you can crown me Nostradamus.

What's the probability of all those things happening?  Because that's where would-be Nostradamuses fall on their faces.

You see, it's not only that the Leafs would HAVE to go 0-4 (which, despite your "not a stretch" comment is exactly that), that would have to happen AND everything else on the list would have to happen.  Not "and/or" (which would be a huge difference).  Chain all those together and your map becomes quite improbable.  Which it is.

It's not though, it's not like every team has to run the table and win all their remaining games.  Ottawa doesn't even have to go .500 to pass the Leafs if the Leafs go 0-4.  With all the teams I listed being desperate for wins, I can easily see them beating the likes of Florida/Carolina/Buffalo which most of them play.  All the teams I listed only need to get to 54 points if the Leafs go 0-4.  You can take away a win from each team I listed with 56 and they still do it.

I haven't gone to any of those playoff probability sites today but I bet we're still over 90%.  I'd place a sizable bet with odds like that, were I betting man.

Mind you, I'm talking about merely making the playoffs, not finishing 5th or whatever we are in.

EDIT: here's one of those sites:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Our probability of getting in is not just over 90%, it's still 99.8%.  They run 1000 simulations of the rest of the season to get this -- meaning 998 times out of 1000 the Leafs make it in.

Of course, their number is only as good as their model, which I have no idea about.

 

[Zee]

I'm fairly impressed with my roadmap.  Even took into account all teams playing each other like Jets/Isles and Jets/Caps.  If this comes to pass you can crown me Nostradamus.

What's the probability of all those things happening?  Because that's where would-be Nostradamuses fall on their faces.

You see, it's not only that the Leafs would HAVE to go 0-4 (which, despite your "not a stretch" comment is exactly that), that would have to happen AND everything else on the list would have to happen.  Not "and/or" (which would be a huge difference).  Chain all those together and your map becomes quite improbable.  Which it is.

It's not though, it's not like every team has to run the table and win all their remaining games.  Ottawa doesn't even have to go .500 to pass the Leafs if the Leafs go 0-4.  With all the teams I listed being desperate for wins, I can easily see them beating the likes of Florida/Carolina/Buffalo which most of them play.  All the teams I listed only need to get to 54 points if the Leafs go 0-4.  You can take away a win from each team I listed with 56 and they still do it.

I haven't gone to any of those playoff probability sites today but I bet we're still over 90%.  I'd place a sizable bet with odds like that, were I betting man.

Mind you, I'm talking about merely making the playoffs, not finishing 5th or whatever we are in.

EDIT: here's one of those sites:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Our probability of getting in is not just over 90%, it's still 99.8%.  They run 1000 simulations of the rest of the season to get this -- meaning 998 times out of 1000 the Leafs make it in.

Of course, their number is only as good as their model, which I have no idea about.

Those sites just calculate odds based on a number of simulations which they break down.  If Leafs go 4-0, 3-1, etc.  They have a slim chance of them going 0-4, but based on how they're playing that site doesn't take that into account.  It's pure statistical chance.  Slim to no chance Leafs would finish the season 0-6 right?  Well how about last season when the Leafs fell off the face of the league after the all-star break.  Those same sites had the Leafs at a high probability of making the playoffs at the all-star break.  I think the Leafs broke those sites last season. ;-)

This comes from years of having the Leafs disappoint me, I fully expect to be kicked in the balls by the team again.  I won't believe they're in until that X- appears before the name.

 

[Corn Flake]

This team is reminding me of the '99-00 Leafs team that finally broke through the playoff barrier.. they were continually outshot with CUJO bailing them out most nights and similar defensive issues and never took the easy path anywherre, but they got the job done and made the show.. the semi finals in fact, as underdogs. 

I'm not predicting this team makes the semi finals but it sure looks a lot like that young team did back then.

 

[ZBBM]

I'm fairly impressed with my roadmap.  Even took into account all teams playing each other like Jets/Isles and Jets/Caps.  If this comes to pass you can crown me Nostradamus.

What's the probability of all those things happening?  Because that's where would-be Nostradamuses fall on their faces.

You see, it's not only that the Leafs would HAVE to go 0-4 (which, despite your "not a stretch" comment is exactly that), that would have to happen AND everything else on the list would have to happen.  Not "and/or" (which would be a huge difference).  Chain all those together and your map becomes quite improbable.  Which it is.

It's not though, it's not like every team has to run the table and win all their remaining games.  Ottawa doesn't even have to go .500 to pass the Leafs if the Leafs go 0-4.  With all the teams I listed being desperate for wins, I can easily see them beating the likes of Florida/Carolina/Buffalo which most of them play.  All the teams I listed only need to get to 54 points if the Leafs go 0-4.  You can take away a win from each team I listed with 56 and they still do it.

I haven't gone to any of those playoff probability sites today but I bet we're still over 90%.  I'd place a sizable bet with odds like that, were I betting man.

Mind you, I'm talking about merely making the playoffs, not finishing 5th or whatever we are in.

EDIT: here's one of those sites:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Our probability of getting in is not just over 90%, it's still 99.8%.  They run 1000 simulations of the rest of the season to get this -- meaning 998 times out of 1000 the Leafs make it in.

Of course, their number is only as good as their model, which I have no idea about.

Those sites just calculate odds based on a number of simulations which they break down.  If Leafs go 4-0, 3-1, etc.  They have a slim chance of them going 0-4, but based on how they're playing that site doesn't take that into account.  It's pure statistical chance.  Slim to no chance Leafs would finish the season 0-6 right?  Well how about last season when the Leafs fell off the face of the league after the all-star break.  Those same sites had the Leafs at a high probability of making the playoffs at the all-star break.  I think the Leafs broke those sites last season. ;-)

This comes from years of having the Leafs disappoint me, I fully expect to be kicked in the balls by the team again.  I won't believe they're in until that X- appears before the name.

I won't belabor this any more, but the bolded part is the key here because it doesn't matter.  Each NHL game is essentially an independent event in terms of probability.*  If it weren't, a team playing badly would never ever break out of a slump.

* This holds in situations where the odds of an event are close to even (an unbiased coin flip is the classic example).  Pro hockey games are obviously not exactly like that, but the "spread" of level of skill from the best to the worst NHL teams is close enough so that the outcome of any one game is unpredictable.  All pro sports leagues are structured like that by design.

 

[Stronger Than All]

I hope we end this skid, everyone will not shut up about how our losing streak would have continued into an 82-game schedule.  seriuosly, Leaf haters will most likely make an attempt at convincing us the playoff drought didn't really end.  :

 

[Corn Flake]

I hope we end this skid, everyone will not shut up about how our losing streak would have continued into an 82-game schedule.  seriuosly, Leaf haters will most likely make an attempt at convincing us the playoff drought didn't really end.  :

There are a lot of Leafs "Fans" doing the same thing. Not sure why anyone would choose to live so miserably.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I have to think we'll get at least 1 point from the remaining games, which would probably be enough.  I think it's much more likely one of the other teams loses than it is everyone wins and we lose everything.  Anything can happen, but no point freaking out until it does.

 

[nutman]

Relax all, so we lost two in a row and have Ott coming up. We will still make it, good teams bounce back

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I know people are thinking it's a longshot that the Leafs miss the playoffs, but let me paint a roadmap that shows you exactly how that isn't so far fetched.  Let's assume the Leafs lose their remaining 4 games (and the way they've been playing lately that's NOT a stretch).  So let's say the Leafs finish the season with 53 points.

Rangers : (currently 48 points) go 3-1-1
@Buffalo OTL
NJ W
@Florida W
@Carolina W
NJ L

55 points with that record

Islanders (currently 51 points) go 2-1-1
@Winnipeg  OTL
@Carolina W
@Philly W
@Buffalo L

56 points with that record

Ottawa (currently 52 points) go 2-3
Leafs W
Pittsburgh L
@Washington L
Philly W
Boston L

56 points with that record

Winnipeg (currently 48 points) go 3-1
Islanders W (OT)
@Buffalo W
@Washington L
Montreal W
54 points with that record

Washington (currently 50 points) go 3-1
@Montreal W
Winnipeg W
Ottawa W
Boston L
56 points with that record

I don't even think last season we went 6 straight games without gaining a single point.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't even think last season we went 6 straight games without gaining a single point.

4 games was the longest pointless streak last season. The last time they went 6 straight was when they lost 7 straight at the beginning of the 09/10 season.