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Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews

herman

Well-known member
PPP's Top 25 Under 25 for 2016-2017 is under way.
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2016/7/10/12136480/the-t25u25-is-in-production

How would you rank them? Do you rank by ceiling/potential? or current NHL usefulness? How would you rank our big 4? Who rounds out the top 5? Has the pool ever been this tightly contested in each of the talent tiers?


2016 Eligible:2016's list2015's list

Adam Brooks
Andreas Johnson
Andrew Nielsen
Antoine Bibeau
Auston Matthews
Brendan Leipsic
Carl Grundstrom
Connor Brown
Connor Carrick
Dakota Joshua
Dmytro Timashov
Dominic Toninato
Frank Corrado
Frederik Gauthier
Garret Sparks
Jack Walker
JD Greenway
Jeremy Bracco
Jesper Lindgren
JJ Piccinich
Joseph Woll
Josh Leivo
Justin Holl
Kasmir Kaskisuo
Kasperi Kapanen
Keaton Middleton
Kerby Rychel
Martin Marincin
Martins Dzierkals
Mitch Marner
Morgan Rielly
Nicolas Mattinen
Nikita Korostelev
Nikita Soshnikov
Nikita Zaitsev
Nikolai Chebykin
Nolan Vesey
Pierre Engvall
Rinat Valiev
Stephen Desrocher
Tobias Lindberg
Travis Dermott
Viktor Loov
Vladimir Boblyev
William Nylander
Yegor Korshkov
Zach Hyman
25. Yegor Korshkov
24. Martins Dzierkals
23. Carl Grundstrom
22. Andrew Neilsen
21. Rinat Valiev
20. Tobias Lindberg
19. Travis Dermott
18. Josh Leivo
17. Brendan Leipsic
16. Jeremy Bracco
15. Zach Hyman
14. Frank Corrado
13. Dmytro Timashov
12. Andreas Johnson
11. Kerby Rychel
10. Nikita Soshnikov
9. Kasperi Kapanen
8. Martin Marincin
7. Connor Carrick
6. Nikita Zaitsev
5. Connor Brown
4. Morgan Rielly
3. Mitch Marner
2. William Nylander
1. Auston Matthews (duh)

25. Christopher Gibson - traded
24. Matt Finn - traded
23. Scott Harrington - traded
22. Travis Dermott
21. Dmytro Timashov
20. Carter Verhaeghe - traded
19. Frederik Gauthier
18. Nikita Soshnikov
17. Taylor Beck - traded
16. Viktor L??v
15. Josh Leivo
14. Jeremy Bracco
13. Stuart Percy - UFA'd
12. Brendan Leipsic
11. Andreas Johnson
10. Martin Marincin
9. Richard Panik - traded
8. Connor Brown
7. Peter Holland - graduated
6. Kasperi Kapanen
5. Mitch Marner
4. Nazem Kadri - graduated
3. Jake Gardiner - graduated
2. William Nylander
1. Morgan Rielly


TLN is doing a top 20 (Calder-eligible) prospects as well, so I'll track both here.

 
Sure, I'll take a stab.

1. Auston Matthews
Mitch Marner
Morgan Rielly
William Nylander
5. Nikita Zaitsev
Connor Brown
Kasperi Kapanen
Connor Carrick
Zach Hyman
10. Nikita Soshnikov
Jeremy Bracco
Kerby Rychel
Travis Dermott
Dmytro Timashov
15. Martin Marincin
Andreas Johnson
Frank Corrado
Yegor Korshkov
Carl Grundstrom
20. Brendan Leipsic
Josh Leivo
Andrew Nielsen
Martins Dzierkals
Rinat Valiev
Frederik Gauthier

I combined NHL potential and NHL readiness in my ranking- I tried not to value one over the other. 

Gauthier had to make the list IMO because he's going to play in the NHL as a 4th line center, face-off specialist, and PK forward.  Probably in 2017-2018.  In the next group were a bunch of goalies, Brooks, and Greenway.
 
My list is a little different.  I have a slightly different definition of what qualifies as a prospect.  To me a prospect is one that has yet to crack an NHL roster.

A U 25 roster player is a U 25 roster player, not a prospect, so in my prospect pool, Morgan Rielly for instance, doesn't qualify.  He's a core player, signed long term.  That being said, here are my top 20 prospects:

Ranked on both NHL readiness and long term success.

1. Auston Matthews
2. Mitch Marner
3. William Nylander
4. Nikita Zaitsev
5. Connor Carrick
6. Connor Brown
7. Zach Hyman
8. Nikita Soshnikov
9. Kerby Rychel
10. Kasperi Kapanen
11. Travis Dermott
12. Jeremy Bracco
13. Viktor Loov
14. Tobias Lindberg
15. Brendan Leipsic
16. Antoine Bibeau
17. Andrew Nielsen
18. Frederik Gauthier
19. Josh Leivo
20. Garret Sparks

Not qualified in my list are the likes of Corrado, Rielly, Marincin, etc. as they have already both played their rookie season and aren't currently in the minors.
 
TBLeafer said:
My list is a little different.  I have a slightly different definition of what qualifies as a prospect.  To me a prospect is one that has yet to crack an NHL roster.

A U 25 roster player is a U 25 roster player, not a prospect, so in my prospect pool, Morgan Rielly for instance, doesn't qualify.  He's a core player, signed long term.  That being said, here are my top 20 prospects:

Ranked on both NHL readiness and long term success.

1. Auston Matthews
2. Mitch Marner
3. William Nylander
4. Nikita Zaitsev
5. Connor Carrick
6. Connor Brown
7. Zach Hyman
8. Nikita Soshnikov
9. Kerby Rychel
10. Kasperi Kapanen
11. Travis Dermott
12. Jeremy Bracco
13. Viktor Loov
14. Tobias Lindberg
15. Brendan Leipsic
16. Antoine Bibeau
17. Andrew Nielsen
18. Frederik Gauthier
19. Josh Leivo
20. Garret Sparks

Not qualified in my list are the likes of Corrado, Rielly, Marincin, etc. as they have already both played their rookie season and aren't currently in the minors.

Yeah but the PPP article isn't about whether they've played in the NHL or not. It literally is what is says: Players U25 are eligible for the list.
 
Bender said:
TBLeafer said:
My list is a little different.  I have a slightly different definition of what qualifies as a prospect.  To me a prospect is one that has yet to crack an NHL roster.

A U 25 roster player is a U 25 roster player, not a prospect, so in my prospect pool, Morgan Rielly for instance, doesn't qualify.  He's a core player, signed long term.  That being said, here are my top 20 prospects:

Ranked on both NHL readiness and long term success.

1. Auston Matthews
2. Mitch Marner
3. William Nylander
4. Nikita Zaitsev
5. Connor Carrick
6. Connor Brown
7. Zach Hyman
8. Nikita Soshnikov
9. Kerby Rychel
10. Kasperi Kapanen
11. Travis Dermott
12. Jeremy Bracco
13. Viktor Loov
14. Tobias Lindberg
15. Brendan Leipsic
16. Antoine Bibeau
17. Andrew Nielsen
18. Frederik Gauthier
19. Josh Leivo
20. Garret Sparks

Not qualified in my list are the likes of Corrado, Rielly, Marincin, etc. as they have already both played their rookie season and aren't currently in the minors.

Yeah but the PPP article isn't about whether they've played in the NHL or not. It literally is what is says: Players U25 are eligible for the list.

Understood, but I'm not going off the PPP article.  Plus it isn't hard to see who I'm omitting.  Top young talent is different than prospect rankings wouldn't you say?  It makes no sense to me to rank Rielly as a prospect is all.
 
I'm going to be ranking them based on whose name, if they were characters in a novel you bought at the airport, would make you question the author's judgment the most:

1. Kerby Rychel
2. Auston Matthews
3. Jack Walker
4. Yegor Korshkov
5. Antoine Bibeau
6. Garret Sparks
7. Carl Grundstrom
8. Morgan Rielly
9. Viktor Loov
10. Connor Carrick

 
Nik the Trik said:
I'm going to be ranking them based on whose name, if they were characters in a novel you bought at the airport, would make you question the author's judgment the most:

1. Kerby Rychel
2. Auston Matthews
3. Jack Walker
4. Yegor Korshkov
5. Antoine Bibeau
6. Garret Sparks
7. Carl Grundstrom
8. Morgan Rielly
9. Viktor Loov
10. Connor Carrick

This list is invalid without Dakota Joshua as the #1.
 
bustaheims said:
Nik the Trik said:
I'm going to be ranking them based on whose name, if they were characters in a novel you bought at the airport, would make you question the author's judgment the most:

1. Kerby Rychel
2. Auston Matthews
3. Jack Walker
4. Yegor Korshkov
5. Antoine Bibeau
6. Garret Sparks
7. Carl Grundstrom
8. Morgan Rielly
9. Viktor Loov
10. Connor Carrick

This list is invalid without Dakota Joshua as the #1.

The omission of a guy named Vladimir Bobylev was enough for me to throw it away.

Garbage List.
 
5 worst omissions from my Airport Novel list:

1. Dakota Joshua
2. Rinat Valiev
3. JD Greenway
4. Nikita Korostelev
5. Keaton Middleton
 
TBLeafer said:
My list is a little different.  I have a slightly different definition of what qualifies as a prospect.  To me a prospect is one that has yet to crack an NHL roster.

A U 25 roster player is a U 25 roster player, not a prospect, so in my prospect pool, Morgan Rielly for instance, doesn't qualify.  He's a core player, signed long term.  That being said, here are my top 20 prospects:

Ranked on both NHL readiness and long term success.

1. Mitch Marner
2. Auston Matthews
3. William Nylander
4. Nikita Zaitsev
5. Connor Carrick
6. Connor Brown
7. Zach Hyman
8. Nikita Soshnikov
9. Kerby Rychel
10. Kasperi Kapanen
11. Travis Dermott
12. Jeremy Bracco
13. Viktor Loov
14. Tobias Lindberg
15. Brendan Leipsic
16. Antoine Bibeau
17. Andrew Nielsen
18. Frederik Gauthier
19. Josh Leivo
20. Garret Sparks

Not qualified in my list are the likes of Corrado, Rielly, Marincin, etc. as they have already both played their rookie season and aren't currently in the minors.

I made ONE change to your list. I don't know if I believe it. At least not yet. I just don't think we should all assume we have the number one and two in the correct order. I'd like to at least see them both play in an exhibition game first before I'm completely comfortable putting them in order. Anyone else think there's a chance?
 
Technically, Rychel, Leivo and Carrick aren't rookies either as none would be eligible for the Calder next year.
 
Frank E said:
Nik the Trik said:
McGarnagle said:
It is a haul of picks, and it is too early to say it would have been the wrong decision, even now in hindsight.

If I'm understanding correctly, I guess I was just under the impression that Hunter was drafting Marner at that spot as a first priority and plan. If the link it to be believed, they didn't think enough of him to prefer giving up that spot and trading down. That surprised me.

Me too but, to give the organization credit, I think there's real value in exploring all of your options. That very well might have been a "they'll never give us all that, will they?" sort of offer.

If the Leafs think Columbus' rookie GM wants Hanafin, they make the offer to see if they'll bite.  It was the Leafs trying to take advantage here, not so much them not liking Marner.

They seemed to like Werenski enough to keep their stash.

So, I agree.

Just saw this conversation for the first time as this thread was brought back up the last day or so. 

My understanding was that the leafs put this in front of Columbus just in case Marner was taken at 3 and that Hanifin was available for Columbus at 4.  They were only interested in executing their trade down strategy if Marner was off the table.

Which is interesting because, if memory serves correct,  Nonis was considering a trade down deal with St. Louis for their 1st and their 2  2nds when the Nylander pick came up, but Shanahan over turned him. 
 
RedLeaf said:
I made ONE change to your list. I don't know if I believe it. At least not yet. I just don't think we should all assume we have the number one and two in the correct order. I'd like to at least see them both play in an exhibition game first before I'm completely comfortable putting them in order. Anyone else think there's a chance?

Hey, to each his own, Marner has crazy skill but I give Matthews the edge due to 1C NHL potential.  We are very lucky to have them BOTH!

Nik the Trik said:
Technically, Rychel, Leivo and Carrick aren't rookies either as none would be eligible for the Calder next year.

They've also never made an NHL roster full time, just a smattering of games here and there, bounced up and down, that's why they still qualify for me.  So NHL rookies, no... prospects... yes.
 
TBLeafer said:
They've also never made an NHL roster full time, just a smattering of games here and there, bounced up and down, that's why they still qualify for me.  So NHL rookies, no... prospects... yes.

Your criteria seems designed to give a misleading impression of a team's young talent.
 
Nik the Trik said:
TBLeafer said:
They've also never made an NHL roster full time, just a smattering of games here and there, bounced up and down, that's why they still qualify for me.  So NHL rookies, no... prospects... yes.

Your criteria seems designed to give a misleading impression of a team's young talent.

How so?  If you are U25 and NOT a full time NHL'er, you are a prospect until such time as you become a full time NHL'er.  How is that misleading?

Edit:  For those asking what happens when you are over 25 and not a full time NHL'er but still in the prospect pool...

At that point you are one of two things:

1. An AHL/NHL tweener (Brennan)
2. An AHL journeyman which is as far as your career will ever go unless you get signed overseas.

Either way, you are no longer a prospect.
 
TBLeafer said:
How so?  If you are U25 and NOT a full time NHL'er, you are a prospect until such time as you become a full time NHL'er.  How is that misleading?

Because of the largely meaningless distinction between prospect and player in this context. If a list like this is meant to give us a handle on where players stack against each other then why is it important to distinguish between where various players of similar ages are in their careers? Rielly is younger than Zaitsev. He's more relevant to a discussion of this nature than Zaitsev because he's more important to the team.

What a prospect is isn't a hard and fast rule, so why exclude players if you don't have to? What's gained by arbitrarily narrowing the scope of the discussion?
 
Nik the Trik said:
Because of the largely meaningless distinction between prospect and player in this context. If a list like this is meant to give us a handle on where players stack against each other then why is it important to distinguish between where various players of similar ages are in their careers? Rielly is younger than Zaitsev. He's more relevant to a discussion of this nature than Zaitsev because he's more important to the team.

What a prospect is isn't a hard and fast rule, so why exclude players if you don't have to? What's gained by arbitrarily narrowing the scope of the discussion?

1. See edit.
2. Zaitsev wasn't in our system at all, prior to THIS spring, he has yet to play a full season in the NHL, thus also qualifying as a rookie as well as a prospect regardless of being older than Rielly.

The discussion changes IMO from prospect depth to overall talent depth, once you include full time NHL'ers.  Then the discussion changes to also include players like Kadri, JVR, Gardiner and Andersen for instance. It's just a different list, not a prospect list.
 
TBLeafer said:
1. See edit.
2. Zaitsev wasn't in our system at all, prior to THIS spring, he has yet to play a full season in the NHL, thus also qualifying as a rookie as well as a prospect regardless of being older than Rielly.

Neither of those things answers the question I asked of what the value is in narrowing the scope of the question arbitrarily. I mean, it's great that you define prospect in a certain way but I don't see how these distinctions actually matter. If the Leafs had kept Marner up last year and he'd had a not very productive rookie season, why wouldn't we still want to assess his potential vs. the other young players in the system?

 
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