Ranking Prospects 2018-19

[herman]

Top 25 under 25 (by Sept 15, 2018) should be launching towards the end of July.
Check out last season's thread to see the changes in our pipeline. As I'm posting this in advance of the Draft, this post is malleable.

2018 Eligible:		2018's list		2017's list
Adam Brooks Andreas Borgman Andreas Johnsson Andrew Nielsen Auston Matthews Calle Rosen Carl Grundstrom Connor Brown Connor Carrick Dakota Joshua Dmytro Timashov Eemeli Rasanen Fedor Gordeev Filip Kral Frederik Gauthier Garret Sparks old Ian Scott JD Greenway Jeremy Bracco Jesper Lindgren JJ Piccinich Jordan Subban Joseph Woll Kasimir Kaskisuo Kasperi Kapanen Mac Hollowell Martins Dzierkals Mason Marchment Mitch Marner Morgan Rielly Nikolai Chebykin Pierre Engvall Pontus Holmberg Rasmus Sandin Riley Stotts Ryan McGregor Ryan O'Connell Sean Durzi Semyon Der-Arguchintsev Semyon Kizimov Timothy Liljegren Travis Dermott Trevor Moore Vladimir Boblyev Vladislav Kara William Nylander Yegor Korshkov Zachary Bouthillier		25. Pierre Engvall 24. Jordan Subban 23. Mason Marchment 22. Dmytro Timashov 21. Yegor Korshkov 20. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 19. Eemeli R?s?nen 18. Sean Durzi 17. Jeremy Bracco 16. Adam Brooks 15. Trevor Moore 14. Calle Ros?n 13. Carl Grundstrom 12. Rasmus Sandin 11. Andreas Borgman 10. Connor Carrick 9. Connor Brown 8. Andreas Johnsson 7. Timothy Liljegren 6. Kasperi Kapanen 5. Travis Dermott 4. Morgan Rielly T2: Mitch Marner T2: William Nylander 1. Auston Matthews		25. Rinat Valiev (traded) | Joseph Woll 24. Garret Sparks 23. Eemeli Rasanen 22. Yegor Korshkov 21. Miro Aaltonen 20. Dmytro Timashov 19. Andrew Nielsen 18. Kerby Rychel (traded) 17. Calle Rosen 16. Andreas Borgman 15. Adam Brooks 14. Nikita Soshnikov (traded) 13. Jeremy Bracco 12. Carl Grundstrom 11. Andreas Johnsson 10. Travis Dermott 9. Josh Leivo 8. Connor Carrick 7. Timothy Liljegren 6. Connor Brown 5. Kasperi Kapanen 4. Morgan Rielly 3. Mitch Marner 2. William Nylander 1. Auston Matthews

TLN's top 20 (Calder-eligible) prospects

2018		2017
20. Andrew Nielsen 19. Mac Hollowell 18. Jordan Subban 17. Eemeli Rasanen 16. Jesper Lindgren 15. Filip Kral 14. Yegor Korshkov 13. Calle Rosen 12. Adam Brooks 11. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 10. Trevor Moore 9. Pierre Engvall 8. Joseph Woll 7. Dymytro Timashov 6. Sean Durzi 5. Jeremy Bracco 4. Rasmus Sandin 3. Carl Grundstrom 2. Andreas Johnsson 1. Timothy Liljegren		20. Nikolai Chebykin 19. Vladimir Bobylev/Bobylyov 18. Jesper Lindgren 17. Justin Holl 16. JD Greenway 15. Trevor Moore 14. Miro Aaltonen 13. Calle Rosen 12. Andreas Borgman 11. Dmytro Timashov 10. Eemeli Rasanen 9. Yegor Korshkov 8. Andreas Johnsson 7. Joseph Woll 6. Andrew Nielsen 5. Adam Brooks 4. Jeremy Bracco 3. Carl Grundstrom 2. Travis Dermott 1. Timothy Liljegren

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/06/20/checking-in-on-nikolai-chebykin-2016-seventh-round-pick-set-to-attend-second-leafs-development-camp-after-up-and-down-2017-18-season-ends-in-vhl-championship/

MLHS checks in on Nikolai Chebykin, who probably won't show up on this ranking, but who does bring some insider info on how the Development Camp will be run, starting June 25th.

 

[Frank E]

OK, I'll play:

1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Nylander
4. Rielly
5. Brown
6. Dermott
7. Kapanen
8. Johnsson
9. Carrick
10. Leivo
11. Liljegren
12. Borgman
13. Rosen
14. Sparks
15. Aaltonen
16. Grundstrom
17. Moore
18. Brooks
19. Korshkov
20.  Marchment
21. Engvall
22. Bracco
23    Lindgren
24. Rasanen
25. Gordeev

We were all talking about this a little bit ago, but this is a pretty iffy bunch after the current NHLers.  Dubas has some work to do here.

 

[herman]

I?m ready to fight about 2, 3.

 

[rdowdall]

I?m ready to fight about 2, 3.

Why are you talking to the number three about picking a fight about 2?

 

[Frank E]

I?m ready to fight about 2, 3.

Why are you talking to the number three about picking a fight about 2?

I rank 25 guys, and nerd herman has a problem with a one spot difference in
a 25 guy ranking...seriously.  And on top of that, he's wrong.

 

[herman]

 

[CarltonTheBear]

9. Carrick
10. Leivo
11. Liljegren

This is what confused me.

 

[herman]

So in the interest of drawing fire from Frank's decision-making process (Leivo and Aaltonen are both 25 now), I will also post my list and enjoy the subsequent roast. I'm more of a projected ceiling (and associated probability), rather than who has played NHL minutes type of ranker. I also just plopped this out without looking at anything other than the eligibility list.

1. Matthews
2. Nylander
3. Marner
4. Rielly
5. Liljegren
6. Kapanen
7. Dermott
8. Johnsson
9. Grundstrom
10. Borgman
11. Carrick
12. Timashov
13. Bracco
14. Rosen
15. Moore
16. Brown
17. Korshkov
18. Engvall
19. Sparks
20. Brooks
21. Dzierkals
22. Marchment
23. Rasanen
24. Nielsen
25. Woll

 

[Coco-puffs]

So in the interest of drawing fire from Frank's decision-making process (Leivo and Aaltonen are both 25 now), I will also post my list and enjoy the subsequent roast. I'm more of a projected ceiling (and associated probability), rather than who has played NHL minutes type of ranker. I also just plopped this out without looking at anything other than the eligibility list.

1. Matthews
2. Nylander
3. Marner
4. Rielly
5. Liljegren
6. Kapanen
7. Dermott
8. Johnsson
9. Grundstrom
10. Borgman
11. Carrick
12. Timashov
13. Bracco
14. Rosen
15. Moore
16. Brown
17. Korshkov
18. Engvall
19. Sparks
20. Brooks
21. Dzierkals
22. Marchment
23. Rasanen
24. Nielsen
25. Woll

Not a bad list.  Brown is way too low for a guy who can conceivably score 20 goals again, but yeah he's probably maxed out at being the third liner he is now.  Trevor Moore is only 1 year younger and still hasn't made the NHL- do you expect him to be better than a third-liner? 

I can understand having Timashov and Bracco ahead of him because they have higher ceilings (ie, 2nd line)- but I don't think their chances of hitting those ceilings are very high.  I personally wouldn't put them ahead of Brown if, as you state, you also include associated probability- but maybe your probability is a bit rosier than mine.

My list is coming in my next post so you can roast me right back.

 

[herman]

Not a bad list.  Brown is way too low for a guy who can conceivably score 20 goals again, but yeah he's probably maxed out at being the third liner he is now.  Trevor Moore is only 1 year younger and still hasn't made the NHL- do you expect him to be better than a third-liner? 

I can understand having Timashov and Bracco ahead of him because they have higher ceilings (ie, 2nd line)- but I don't think their chances of hitting those ceilings are very high.  I personally wouldn't put them ahead of Brown if, as you state, you also include associated probability- but maybe your probability is a bit rosier than mine.

My list is coming in my next post so you can roast me right back.

Fair points. I have Moore above Brown because have you seen Moore skate? Granted it's only been against AHL so far, but he's essentially left shot Brown with better puckhandling and much better wheels.

I'm pretty high on both Bracco and Timashov. They're perimeter playmakers (which renders their smaller size less of a factor) and can both really hold the puck in traffic and have outstanding on-ice vision, which I put a good chunk of stock in.

 

[Coco-puffs]

My list:

1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Nylander
4. Rielly
5. Dermott
6. Liljegren
7. Kapanen
8. Grundstrom
9. Johnsson
10. Brown
11. Sparks
12. Borgman
13. Carrick
14. Rosen
15. Engvall
16. Bracco
17. Moore
18. Timashov
19. Brooks
20. Marchment
21. Korshkov
22. Rasanen
23. Nielsen
24. Woll
25. Lindgren

 

[Coco-puffs]

Not a bad list.  Brown is way too low for a guy who can conceivably score 20 goals again, but yeah he's probably maxed out at being the third liner he is now.  Trevor Moore is only 1 year younger and still hasn't made the NHL- do you expect him to be better than a third-liner? 

I can understand having Timashov and Bracco ahead of him because they have higher ceilings (ie, 2nd line)- but I don't think their chances of hitting those ceilings are very high.  I personally wouldn't put them ahead of Brown if, as you state, you also include associated probability- but maybe your probability is a bit rosier than mine.

My list is coming in my next post so you can roast me right back.

Fair points. I have Moore above Brown because have you seen Moore skate? Granted it's only been against AHL so far, but he's essentially left shot Brown with better puckhandling and much better wheels.

I'm pretty high on both Bracco and Timashov. They're perimeter playmakers (which renders their smaller size less of a factor) and can both really hold the puck in traffic and have outstanding on-ice vision, which I put a good chunk of stock in.

I could also point out that Brown has VERY high hockey-IQ and a better shot.  He also put up 61 points in the AHL at a much younger age.  Moore hasn't eclipsed 33.  I think Moore's speed will give him a good shot at being on the 4th line and PK duty, but that is still not near Brown's level.

Timashov is only a few months younger than Kapanen and hasn't put up anywhere near Kapanen's level of production.  And Kapanen probably tops out as a 2nd liner.  Bracco is a full year younger, so he still has time to develop, and has actually put up better numbers than Timashov (ppg).  I put the chances of Timashov playing on a 2nd line somewhere very low- Bracco is more likely but at least one more year away from sniffing the NHL.  Hard for me to put them ahead of Brown (or even in the same tier really).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

My list:

1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Nylander
4. Rielly
5. Dermott
6. Liljegren
7. Kapanen
8. Grundstrom
9. Johnsson
10. Brown
11. Sparks
12. Borgman
13. Carrick
14. Rosen
15. Engvall
16. Bracco
17. Moore
18. Timashov
19. Brooks
20. Marchment
21. Korshkov
22. Rasanen
23. Nielsen
24. Woll
25. Lindgren

I'd nitpick a couple one-for-one swaps (Johnsson over Grundstrom, maybe Liljegren over Dermott, maybe Carrick over Borgman) but other than that solid list.

I'd probably vault Korshkov over the Marlies-5 too and put him right behind Engvall. I don't see anything other than 4th liners in that group and I hope to god Korkshov can turn out better than that.

 

[Frank E]

9. Carrick
10. Leivo
11. Liljegren

This is what confused me.

Who asked you?

I just figured you put actual NHL roster players as being better right now than not-NHL players.  You'll note that I put him as the #1 not-NHL player.

Next question, please.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I just figured you put actual NHL roster players as being better right now than not-NHL players.  You'll note that I put him as the #1 not-NHL player.

I was moreso surprised since I know you're not exactly a Carrick fan. I think it's pretty reasonable to place a 5-6-7 defenceman (and I know in your opinion he's closer to 7) behind a guy with Liljegren's potential. Same goes for a 11-12-13 forward like Leivo.

 

[Coco-puffs]

My list:

1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Nylander
4. Rielly
5. Dermott
6. Liljegren
7. Kapanen
8. Grundstrom
9. Johnsson
10. Brown
11. Sparks
12. Borgman
13. Carrick
14. Rosen
15. Engvall
16. Bracco
17. Moore
18. Timashov
19. Brooks
20. Marchment
21. Korshkov
22. Rasanen
23. Nielsen
24. Woll
25. Lindgren

I'd nitpick a couple one-for-one swaps (Johnsson over Grundstrom, maybe Liljegren over Dermott, maybe Carrick over Borgman) but other than that solid list.

I'd probably vault Korshkov over the Marlies-5 too and put him right behind Engvall. I don't see anything other than 4th liners in that group and I hope to god Korkshov can turn out better than that.

Yeah, I actually struggled to decide in those exact spots (Johnsson-Grundstrom especially- but Grundstrom is like 3 years younger!).  Korshkov is a tough one too, as I'd really like him to pan out but he's dealt with so many injuries and coaching changes in the KHL its hard to know if he's actually on the path we'd hope (2nd liner).  I see Brooks and Bracco with capability above a 4th liner.

 

[Frank E]

I just figured you put actual NHL roster players as being better right now than not-NHL players.  You'll note that I put him as the #1 not-NHL player.

I was moreso surprised since I know you're not exactly a Carrick fan. I think it's pretty reasonable to place a 5-6-7 defenceman (and I know in your opinion he's closer to 7) behind a guy with Liljegren's potential. Same goes for a 11-12-13 forward like Leivo.

Oh fine, you and your clique always trash my opinions anyways, so I guess I should just expect this kind of criticism from you.

Honestly, I think you're right, but I just have trouble ranking guys that high that haven't even really played NHL hockey yet, unless their projected to make the lineup.

 

[herman]

I could also point out that Brown has VERY high hockey-IQ and a better shot.  He also put up 61 points in the AHL at a much younger age.  Moore hasn't eclipsed 33.  I think Moore's speed will give him a good shot at being on the 4th line and PK duty, but that is still not near Brown's level.

That's a solid point. I like Brown (smart, generally in the right place at the right time), but I don't see him being more than a defensive utility option because of his lack of any other stand out capability. His offense is solely dependent on his linemates' ability to get the puck to him, and he is otherwise a straight-line player. His big AHL season was riding shotgun to William Nylander (who was artificially suppressed into the AHL), wasn't it? Happy to have him prove me wrong though.

Timashov is only a few months younger than Kapanen and hasn't put up anywhere near Kapanen's level of production.  And Kapanen probably tops out as a 2nd liner.  Bracco is a full year younger, so he still has time to develop, and has actually put up better numbers than Timashov (ppg).  I put the chances of Timashov playing on a 2nd line somewhere very low- Bracco is more likely but at least one more year away from sniffing the NHL.  Hard for me to put them ahead of Brown (or even in the same tier really).

I have Kapanen at least one tier up on Timashov and Bracco so I'm not particularly surprised by the difference there. At this tier of prospect, I think production is very much a function of opportunity. I'm excited to see how the two of them do outside of the shadows of Kapanen and Johnsson, as they become the go-to offense options probably with Grundstrom and Engvall.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Oh fine, you and your clique always trash my opinions anyways, so I guess I should just expect this kind of criticism from you.

:-*

Honestly, I think you're right, but I just have trouble ranking guys that high that haven't even really played NHL hockey yet, unless their projected to make the lineup.

With lists like these that contain both NHLers and prospects, I try to think how I would rank them as NHLers say 2-3 years from now.