Overpaid Leafs

[Britishbulldog]

I noticed in the General NHL section there was some discussion on some current Leaf contracts that might be too high. 

Some might get traded like Beauchemin, etc; some might not get re-signed like Giguere but what about the Kessels and Phaneufs of the Leafs.  When their contracts are up for renewal will they get pay raises, stay the same or drop in size?

Who do you feel is over paid on the Leafs and by how much?  Do you think that Burke will offer less on their next contract?

 

[Deebo]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

Agreed. When compared to some of the deals signed a few weeks ago it looks really good.

Phaneuf is overpaid, but he signed this contract when he was a potential Norris winner. He's clearly not at that same level, even if he continues his play from late last season. But I still don't have too much of a problem with it. We wouldn't have acquired him if he wasn't overpaid.

 

[Kin]

I think it sort of depends on the definition that you use for what makes a player overpaid. If the idea is that a player is overpaid because he's making more money than it would cost to sign him based on how he's playing I think the Leafs have a handful(Lupul, Komisarek, Phaneuf). If the idea is that the salary they're earning seems out of whack with their contribution to the team I think they have a handful more(Armstrong, Kessel, maybe Connolly). I think sometimes people try too often to use the second definition and apply it to players too rigidly ignoring that if you're not willing to pay market prices you'll end up with no players. I think don't know that any third line player is worth 3 million a season, even the best third liners in the league which Armstrong probably isn't, but I recognize that his salary is in line with the salary structure of the league. Like it or not these players do have to be compared to their peers.

The other thing I think we have to acknowledge, and this applies probably best to Lupul and Phaneuf, is that a player's paycheck can't just be looked at in isolation and judgments be made. We saw this all the time with Giguere where an idiot in the Sun or on the Radio would say something like "He's not playing very well and the idiots at MLSE are paying him 6.5 million dollars" or "Not exactly the performance you expect from a 6.5 million goalie."

Well sure. Giguere was making that much money. But the reason he was on the Leafs was because he was making that much money and not playing up to it. Expecting guys to live up to contracts they've already kind of proven they won't doesn't really make a lot of sense. Phaneuf was available because he was a disappointment.

 

[Kin]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

Agreed. When compared to some of the deals signed a few weeks ago it looks really good.

One of the things we often hear though is that we have to compare UFA's to UFA's and RFA's to RFA's. Saying that Kessel isn't overpaid compared to UFA's strikes me as unfair as saying that Armstrong is grossly overpaid because of what Wayne Simmonds got.

I'm sure there are some RFA deals that make Kessel's deal look reasonable. There are also some that make it look pretty pricey for a player who has yet to discover his second dimension. I think it probably falls somewhere in the middle, leaning on the slightly pricey side.

 

[Fletch]

Well sure. Giguere was making that much money. But the reason he was on the Leafs was because he was making that much money and not playing up to it. Expecting guys to live up to contracts they've already kind of proven they won't doesn't really make a lot of sense. Phaneuf was available because he was a disappointment.

Well said Nik.  The reason we have Lupul, Phaneuf, Giguere (I realize he's gone) and others is because they were "overpaid".

The only guy on the team that I think is "overpaid" by either definition is Komisarek.  Management overvalued him, as a UFA, and overpaid.  He has done little to live up to the huge deal he signed.

 

[Erndog]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

Agreed. When compared to some of the deals signed a few weeks ago it looks really good.

One of the things we often hear though is that we have to compare UFA's to UFA's and RFA's to RFA's. Saying that Kessel isn't overpaid compared to UFA's strikes me as unfair as saying that Armstrong is grossly overpaid because of what Wayne Simmonds got.

I'm sure there are some RFA deals that make Kessel's deal look reasonable. There are also some that make it look pretty pricey for a player who has yet to discover his second dimension. I think it probably falls somewhere in the middle, leaning on the slightly pricey side.

The guys what?  23 years old and has 3 straight 30+ goal seasons.

Last year they showed a stat of the current NHL players who have 3 straight 30+ goal years and there was like 8 on the list.  Most of whom making sizeably more than Kessel (i.e. Crosby, Ovechkin, Iginla, Nash, Kovalchuk, etc).  I can only think of Bobby Ryan who's compensated about the same.

I think he's definitely paid in line with his 'worth'.

 

[Zee]

Phaneuf is overpaid for what he's brought so far.  His play has to be in the top 10 for d-men league wide to justify his salary.

 

[maplesyrup]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

Agreed. When compared to some of the deals signed a few weeks ago it looks really good.

One of the things we often hear though is that we have to compare UFA's to UFA's and RFA's to RFA's. Saying that Kessel isn't overpaid compared to UFA's strikes me as unfair as saying that Armstrong is grossly overpaid because of what Wayne Simmonds got.

I'm sure there are some RFA deals that make Kessel's deal look reasonable. There are also some that make it look pretty pricey for a player who has yet to discover his second dimension. I think it probably falls somewhere in the middle, leaning on the slightly pricey side.

The guys what?  23 years old and has 3 straight 30+ goal seasons.

Last year they showed a stat of the current NHL players who have 3 straight 30+ goal years and there was like 8 on the list.  Most of whom making sizeably more than Kessel (i.e. Crosby, Ovechkin, Iginla, Nash, Kovalchuk, etc).  I can only think of Bobby Ryan who's compensated about the same.

I think he's definitely paid in line with his 'worth'.

I don't know. I had Kessel @ #3 on the overpayed Leafs among forwards. It's not a gross overpayment by any stretch, I agree. I just take a look at the Getzlaf's and Perry's and think man, either those guys are a huge deal or Kessel, is somewhat of an overpayment. I think the truth has to be somewhere in between - though likely leaning in favour of those Ducks players being a bargain.

 

[cw]

Expecting guys to live up to contracts they've already kind of proven they won't doesn't really make a lot of sense. Phaneuf was available because he was a disappointment.

I suspect many hoped or expected Phaneuf would bounce back to perform closer to a level his contract represents. Overall, I don't think he has since he arrived in Toronto. Still hoping he'll figure it out this season ... but I can't say that I expect it. As you say, if he had been performing in Calgary up to the level his deal suggests, he'd probably still be in Calgary.

Lupul is a similar story though his performance after he arrived last season was closer to his contract than Phaneuf.

I don't mind the risk Burke took with either of those guys because of other things he got back in those deals or what he got rid of. It wasn't a bad place to spend his dough because there sure hasn't been tons of available UFA deals that got away.

Connolly might be overpaid. We'll see. But I expect that he would have got pretty close to those dollars on the crazy UFA market that was starved for top 6 centers. Under the circumstances, I don't mind the risk in that deal either.

The deal that irritates me most in price performance is Komisarek's. A good year out of him next season could go a long way towards curing that irritation though my expectations of that happening are not high.

 

[Erndog]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

Agreed. When compared to some of the deals signed a few weeks ago it looks really good.

One of the things we often hear though is that we have to compare UFA's to UFA's and RFA's to RFA's. Saying that Kessel isn't overpaid compared to UFA's strikes me as unfair as saying that Armstrong is grossly overpaid because of what Wayne Simmonds got.

I'm sure there are some RFA deals that make Kessel's deal look reasonable. There are also some that make it look pretty pricey for a player who has yet to discover his second dimension. I think it probably falls somewhere in the middle, leaning on the slightly pricey side.

The guys what?  23 years old and has 3 straight 30+ goal seasons.

Last year they showed a stat of the current NHL players who have 3 straight 30+ goal years and there was like 8 on the list.  Most of whom making sizeably more than Kessel (i.e. Crosby, Ovechkin, Iginla, Nash, Kovalchuk, etc).  I can only think of Bobby Ryan who's compensated about the same.

I think he's definitely paid in line with his 'worth'.

I don't know. I had Kessel @ #3 on the overpayed Leafs among forwards. It's not a gross overpayment by any stretch, I agree. I just take a look at the Getzlaf's and Perry's and think man, either those guys are a huge deal or Kessel, is somewhat of an overpayment. I think the truth has to be somewhere in between - though likely leaning in favour of those Ducks players being a bargain.

If all 3 were UFA's tomorrow...

Kessel still gets $5M+.

Perry and Getzlaf probably get $7M+.

So I don't think Kessel is overpaid.  I do think Perry and Getzlaf are bargains.

 

[Kin]

The guys what?  23 years old and has 3 straight 30+ goal seasons.

Last year they showed a stat of the current NHL players who have 3 straight 30+ goal years and there was like 8 on the list.  Most of whom making sizeably more than Kessel (i.e. Crosby, Ovechkin, Iginla, Nash, Kovalchuk, etc).  I can only think of Bobby Ryan who's compensated about the same.

I think he's definitely paid in line with his 'worth'.

That freaking list...

Either way, that's not an entirely accurate recollection of that list. Jeff Carter was also there. Also a RFA and making less than Kessel.

It's not really terribly relevant. Most of the guys on that list are making a lot more money than Phil Kessel because they're a lot better than Kessel. Likewise, a whole bunch of guys who aren't on the list like Corey Perry or Ryan Kesler(both of whom also have 90+ goals over the last three seasons) are, likewise, better players than Kessel and making less money.

 

[maplesyrup]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

Agreed. When compared to some of the deals signed a few weeks ago it looks really good.

One of the things we often hear though is that we have to compare UFA's to UFA's and RFA's to RFA's. Saying that Kessel isn't overpaid compared to UFA's strikes me as unfair as saying that Armstrong is grossly overpaid because of what Wayne Simmonds got.

I'm sure there are some RFA deals that make Kessel's deal look reasonable. There are also some that make it look pretty pricey for a player who has yet to discover his second dimension. I think it probably falls somewhere in the middle, leaning on the slightly pricey side.

The guys what?  23 years old and has 3 straight 30+ goal seasons.

Last year they showed a stat of the current NHL players who have 3 straight 30+ goal years and there was like 8 on the list.  Most of whom making sizeably more than Kessel (i.e. Crosby, Ovechkin, Iginla, Nash, Kovalchuk, etc).  I can only think of Bobby Ryan who's compensated about the same.

I think he's definitely paid in line with his 'worth'.

I don't know. I had Kessel @ #3 on the overpayed Leafs among forwards. It's not a gross overpayment by any stretch, I agree. I just take a look at the Getzlaf's and Perry's and think man, either those guys are a huge deal or Kessel, is somewhat of an overpayment. I think the truth has to be somewhere in between - though likely leaning in favour of those Ducks players being a bargain.

If all 3 were UFA's tomorrow...

Kessel still gets $5M+.

Perry and Getzlaf probably get $7M+.

So I don't think Kessel is overpaid.  I do think Perry and Getzlaf are bargains.

Yes. I agree... That said, I'm sure I give Perry and Getzlaf 7+ but I'm not sure its a slam dunk I give Kessel 5.4 mil right now - though again, I'm certain he'd get it elsewhere too. 

 

[Zee]

That freaking list...

Either way, that's not an entirely accurate recollection of that list. Jeff Carter was also there. Also a RFA and making less than Kessel.

Carter is making more salary than Kessel. His cap hit is lower because he has one of those long term deals that plays funny with the cap.  He's making $6M this year, it continues to climb to a high of $7M at one point, then drops off dramatically in the last years of his deal.

 

[Erndog]

The guys what?  23 years old and has 3 straight 30+ goal seasons.

Last year they showed a stat of the current NHL players who have 3 straight 30+ goal years and there was like 8 on the list.  Most of whom making sizeably more than Kessel (i.e. Crosby, Ovechkin, Iginla, Nash, Kovalchuk, etc).  I can only think of Bobby Ryan who's compensated about the same.

I think he's definitely paid in line with his 'worth'.

That freaking list...

Either way, that's not an entirely accurate recollection of that list. Jeff Carter was also there. Also a RFA and making less than Kessel.

It's not really terribly relevant. Most of the guys on that list are making a lot more money than Phil Kessel because they're a lot better than Kessel. Likewise, a whole bunch of guys who aren't on the list like Corey Perry or Ryan Kesler(both of whom also have 90+ goals over the last three seasons) are, likewise, better players than Kessel and making less money.

Those players are indeed making more because they are better players.  Strengthening the argument that he isn't overpaid.  If he made more than them then... sure. 

Either way, we are quibbling over what?  500K? 

Players have different values to different teams.  I know this is getting away from the salary point but if we were to trade Gunnarson what is he worth on the open market?  Probably a 2nd round pick or a B+ type prospect.  He's more valuable to us then that.  Is Erik Cole worth $4M a year for 4 years?  Probably not but the Habs are a team of midgets and severly lack size and strength in their top 6 so he's worth that to the Habs.

For what Kessel brings to the team, his age, potential, and in comparison to his peers, I have absolutely no issues with his salary.

 

[Kin]

Those players are indeed making more because they are better players.  Strengthening the argument that he isn't overpaid.  If he made more than them then... sure. 

That's pretty silly. Crosby, Ovechkin, those guys are really immaterial to Kessel's value. Grouping players like that list, which has no maximums and only minimums, can be designed to put anyone in a group with Sid Crosby. It doesn't make Crosby a good comparison.

Where I would say Kessel is overpaid is in comparing him to guys who add roughly the same value to their teams and looking at what they made as RFA's. Not a pretty arbitrary grouping of guys miles above him.

Either way, we are quibbling over what?  500K? 

I said that he's probably a little overpaid. So, yes, you do seem to be quibbling over that "little".

 

[Kin]

That freaking list...

Either way, that's not an entirely accurate recollection of that list. Jeff Carter was also there. Also a RFA and making less than Kessel.

Carter is making more salary than Kessel. His cap hit is lower because he has one of those long term deals that plays funny with the cap.  He's making $6M this year, it continues to climb to a high of $7M at one point, then drops off dramatically in the last years of his deal.

For future reference, how a deal is structured means just about nothing to me. Especially not for a young player. When I talk about what a player makes, I'm talking about his cap hit and not what he's actually putting into the bank every week. That doesn't strike me as all that important.

 

[Zee]

Those players are indeed making more because they are better players.  Strengthening the argument that he isn't overpaid.  If he made more than them then... sure. 

That's pretty silly. Crosby, Ovechkin, those guys are really immaterial to Kessel's value. Grouping players like that list, which has no maximums and only minimums, can be designed to put anyone in a group with Sid Crosby. It doesn't make Crosby a good comparison.

Where I would say Kessel is overpaid is in comparing him to guys who add roughly the same value to their teams and looking at what they made as RFA's. Not a pretty arbitrary grouping of guys miles above him.

Either way, we are quibbling over what?  500K? 

I said that he's probably a little overpaid. So, yes, you do seem to be quibbling over that "little".

If you do it by that measure, then Kessel is UNDERPAID.  He's led the Leafs in goals and points the last 2 seasons, if you compare to the rest of the Leafs roster, Kessel should be the highest paid player since he provides the most offense.

 

[Kin]

If you do it by that measure, then Kessel is UNDERPAID.  He's led the Leafs in goals and points the last 2 seasons, if you compare to the rest of the Leafs roster, Kessel should be the highest paid player since he provides the most offense.

Um, what? I in no way said Kessel should only be compared to other Maple Leafs. I explicitly said the opposite.

 

[Damian]

A 30 goal scorer in todays NHL making $5-$5.5M is right where he should be in my opinion