My read on the Leafs draft process:
- looks like a huge departure from last year's consistent exploitation of the market inefficiency in Size bias. skill > size is very obvious and easy to understand
- overagers/size appeared to be a focus, but I contend they've been drafting consistently for BPA both years (they picked larger overagers last year; e.g. Desrocher)
- this year, the weak draft class + even more data points on dev curve and progress momentum happened to put these who happen to be older/larger/international at the top of the BPA list at each pick.
- none of this matters if the picks can't play, but clearly the scouting department saw which players had steep upward curves based on their d/d+ years and slotted them accordingly
- benefits to their situation were also added to the BPA weighting scale
- overage = direct control over dev (Marlies), shorter dev timeline; sounds traditionally unattractive (history of rejection) so there is higher likelihood of picking who you want; ELC/SPC doesn't kick in until they're pretty much ready to drop into NHL (huge value, even for bottom six plugs)
- non-CHL picks: prospects get to stew longer without the cost of a contract while remaining under our control -- perfect situation for goalie development without kicking out an existing prospect; international picks are already playing against full-grown pro players
Why are we so meh about this draft?
- highly untraditional
- run up draft coverage always favours first year draft eligibles so those are the names we assess and attach to
- on the surface, looks like a Burke draft
- picks were even more unknown than usual
What is so exciting about this draft (outside of Matthews):
- clear analytics focus
- exploiting situations for easier cap/contract management