Author Topic: The Official 2012 MLB Thread  (Read 18956 times)

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Offline bustaheims

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #165 on: October 06, 2012, 11:58:33 AM »
Luck, anomalies, whatever. I'll take it.

I'd rather not do the one season of mild success and back to mediocrity thing.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #165 on: October 06, 2012, 11:58:33 AM »

Offline Sarge

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #166 on: October 06, 2012, 12:02:46 PM »

I'd rather not do the one season of mild success and back to mediocrity thing.

Sure. Me neither. Though if we're not going to pull out the check book, we're going to need something other than our good looks.   

Offline bustaheims

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #167 on: October 06, 2012, 12:04:58 PM »
Sure. Me neither. Though if we're not going to pull out the check book, we're going to need something other than our good looks.

Well, I don't know about you, but, I do just fine with my charming personality as well. ;D
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Corn Flake

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #168 on: October 06, 2012, 12:06:28 PM »
I'd really like to see one of Baltimore or Oakland make it to the WS. I think with a little luck, the Jays can be right where these guys are.

Baltimore's success this season is a bit of an anomaly. They finished 11 wins ahead of of their Pythagorean W-L. Pythagorean estimates a team's expected record based on their run differential, and, while it's not a perfect stat, it does tend to be fairly accurate. Most teams who exceed their expected win total do so by 3 wins or less. The only other teams who finished 5 or more wins ahead of their pace this season were Cincinnati and San Francisco - each with 6 more wins than their expected pace. In fact, those 3 teams were the only teams in baseball to finish with a greater than 5 win difference in either direction. 18 of the 30 MLB teams finished within 3 wins of their expected totals. There's a very good chance that Baltimore's success is unsustainable.

What did Oakland's number look like?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #169 on: October 06, 2012, 12:07:59 PM »
What did Oakland's number look like?

They were two wins above expected, 94-68, with Pythagoras having them at 92-70.
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #170 on: October 06, 2012, 12:10:16 PM »
Sure. Me neither. Though if we're not going to pull out the check book, we're going to need something other than our good looks.

But I think the point is that luck isn't something you can plan on or build towards. Baltimore's kind of fluke-y season is a great story and fun to watch, but there's no way to emulate it. If the Jays are going to win without spending a ton of money Tampa, or Oakland, are better examples than Baltimore.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Corn Flake

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #171 on: October 06, 2012, 12:10:47 PM »
What did Oakland's number look like?

They were two wins above expected, 94-68, with Pythagoras having them at 92-70.

Thanks. Interesting the formula was able to calculate them to be that close.  It was a pretty unlikely run for them, especially to actually beat out Texas for the division. 

Offline Sarge

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #172 on: October 06, 2012, 12:11:18 PM »
Sure. Me neither. Though if we're not going to pull out the check book, we're going to need something other than our good looks.

Well, I don't know about you, but, I do just fine with my charming personality as well. ;D

Oh, me too. A quick wit and the incredibly sexy mini-van I drive goes a long way too.  :D 

Offline Sarge

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #173 on: October 06, 2012, 12:12:32 PM »
Sure. Me neither. Though if we're not going to pull out the check book, we're going to need something other than our good looks.

But I think the point is that luck isn't something you can plan on or build towards. Baltimore's kind of fluke-y season is a great story and fun to watch, but there's no way to emulate it. If the Jays are going to win without spending a ton of money Tampa, or Oakland, are better examples than Baltimore.

That's fine. I did mention Oakland too.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #174 on: October 06, 2012, 12:16:21 PM »
Thanks. Interesting the formula was able to calculate them to be that close.  It was a pretty unlikely run for them, especially to actually beat out Texas for the division.

Well, keep in mind that it's not a predictive formula. It's just about basing am expected W-L record off of run differential so a team that is better than expected and outscores their opponents by quite a bit, like Oakland this year, will have a good Expected W-L regardless of how they may have been perceived at the start of the season.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #175 on: October 06, 2012, 02:03:56 PM »
Lupul tweeted last night that the NHL should follow suit. #8 plays #9 in a one game playoff. Thoughts?


Not a bad idea.  It gives those seeded teams a 'fighting' chance at a potential playoff spot, and the fans of those respective teams some more 'hope'.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #176 on: October 07, 2012, 08:59:16 PM »
Lupul tweeted last night that the NHL should follow suit. #8 plays #9 in a one game playoff. Thoughts?

Outside of creating an artificially exciting game of hockey, what's the rationale? Baseball had a legitimate issue where the strength of one particular division could mean that some teams had an unfair barrier to making the playoffs and really good teams didn't make the playoffs. Hockey doesn't have that. Every single team in a division in Hockey could make the playoffs and every year the #9 seed is a pretty mediocre team.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Sarge

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #177 on: October 07, 2012, 09:27:34 PM »
Lupul tweeted last night that the NHL should follow suit. #8 plays #9 in a one game playoff. Thoughts?

Outside of creating an artificially exciting game of hockey, what's the rationale? Baseball had a legitimate issue where the strength of one particular division could mean that some teams had an unfair barrier to making the playoffs and really good teams didn't make the playoffs. Hockey doesn't have that. Every single team in a division in Hockey could make the playoffs and every year the #9 seed is a pretty mediocre team.

Yeah, good point.

Offline LeafsKessel

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #178 on: October 08, 2012, 07:12:02 PM »
I don't think it is a good idea to do a one game playoff between #8 and #9 seed because, like it was said earlier, #9 seed is not a really good team and the actual system is okay, so we don't have to change it.

Offline L K

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #179 on: October 08, 2012, 08:04:55 PM »
I'm torn between wanting Washington to regret not starting Strasburg and my general dislike of St. Louis (how many of their mediocre teams get to go to the post-season).

St. Louis has averaged 90.53 wins over the past 13 seasons and made the playoffs 8 times (7 of them as a division champion).  How nice would it be for the AL East to suck like that.

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Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
« Reply #179 on: October 08, 2012, 08:04:55 PM »