Author Topic: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion  (Read 40097 times)

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Offline Gender Bender

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #750 on: January 14, 2019, 09:35:52 AM »
Is there even a downside in trying Rosen over Zaitsev at this point?

I can see Rosen getting the call this year. From all accounts he's having a good year and had an excellent playoff last year.
I think if Lilypad gets back and plays well he still may get a shot up here this year.
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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #750 on: January 14, 2019, 09:35:52 AM »

Online herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #751 on: January 14, 2019, 10:09:58 AM »
Is there even a downside in trying Rosen over Zaitsev at this point?

Stephen Burtch has been chatting about Zaitsev lately:

The defensive component of Evolving Hockey's GAR model paints a positive picture of Zaitsev's contributions. The model also shows that Zaitsev is heavily skewed defensive, Rielly is heavily skewed offensive, and Gardiner is generally balanced.

Gardiner also had some glowing observations about his partner's defensive capabilities over on The Athletic recently. As a pair, 51-22 has improved as the season wears on (given that they were bordering on trash earlier, that's not a high hurdle). Zaitsev is the Zach Hyman of the D corps, and Babcock loves him as such.

I can see Hyman's value with the eyeballs and on the shot stats, but it's harder to come across with Zaitsev. I see he has a lot of tools that should lead to being a good defenseman (fantastic, fantastic skater), and I know he's being instructed to play a very specifically simplified game which probably colours the results.

It's pretty hard to use the eyes to gauge defense because the brain gravitates towards remembering and thus emphasizing goals (either for or against) and discarding the many other little plays off the puck that aren't directly statted. Skating routes to shade off an attack long enough for a teammate to engage a clean takeaway, for example -- teammate gets the credit on the statsheet, but it wouldn't have been possible without that 'assist'. I can't remember specific instances of Zaitsev doing this, but Gardiner certainly does, as well as Hainsey.

As for the actual question posed, Rosen is more Rielly than Zaitsev, and putting him in a position of disadvantage (weak-side) might nullify whatever offensive contribution he adds over Zaitsev.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #752 on: January 14, 2019, 10:11:46 AM »
I once saw someone call Stephen Burtch the Seth Abramson of Hockey Twitter and my life has never quite been the same since then.

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #753 on: January 14, 2019, 10:22:58 AM »
I once saw someone call Stephen Burtch the Seth Abramson of Hockey Twitter and my life has never quite been the same since then.

I'm betting he has a lot of blue yarn walls.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #754 on: January 14, 2019, 10:24:25 AM »
I once saw someone call Stephen Burtch the Seth Abramson of Hockey Twitter and my life has never quite been the same since then.

I'm betting he has a lot of blue yarn walls.


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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #755 on: January 14, 2019, 11:03:39 AM »
Perusing the GAR model is also fun to see how Gardiner has been the best Leaf defenseman for the past 3 years and it's not even particularly close. Rielly this year is buoyed significantly by his offense and is the best offensive season ever for a Leafs defenseman.

2016-2019 (so far)
PlayerGoals Above Replacement
Victor Hedman42.2
Mark Giordano39.5
Brett Pesce35
Erik Karlsson34.6
Jared Spurgeon34
John Klingberg34
Jake Gardiner33.3
Colton Parayko30.9
John Carlson30.1
Alex Pietrangelo29.4

Offline Zee

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #756 on: January 14, 2019, 01:32:54 PM »
Perusing the GAR model is also fun to see how Gardiner has been the best Leaf defenseman for the past 3 years and it's not even particularly close. Rielly this year is buoyed significantly by his offense and is the best offensive season ever for a Leafs defenseman.

2016-2019 (so far)
PlayerGoals Above Replacement
Victor Hedman42.2
Mark Giordano39.5
Brett Pesce35
Erik Karlsson34.6
Jared Spurgeon34
John Klingberg34
Jake Gardiner33.3
Colton Parayko30.9
John Carlson30.1
Alex Pietrangelo29.4

Leafs fans that complain about Gardiner really have no idea how bad the Leafs defense would be without him in the lineup.  Having Jake out of this current group and trying to plug in a Marincin or Holl or something like Rosen would be a disaster waiting to happen.

Offline princedpw

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #757 on: January 14, 2019, 02:27:04 PM »
Perusing the GAR model is also fun to see how Gardiner has been the best Leaf defenseman for the past 3 years and it's not even particularly close. Rielly this year is buoyed significantly by his offense and is the best offensive season ever for a Leafs defenseman.

2016-2019 (so far)
PlayerGoals Above Replacement
Victor Hedman42.2
Mark Giordano39.5
Brett Pesce35
Erik Karlsson34.6
Jared Spurgeon34
John Klingberg34
Jake Gardiner33.3
Colton Parayko30.9
John Carlson30.1
Alex Pietrangelo29.4

I don't know how this works but a metric that ranks Alex Tuch, Nate Schmidt and Leon Draisatl (among many others) this year over Connor McDavid seems a little fishy:

https://evolving-hockey.com/


Online herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #758 on: January 14, 2019, 02:49:36 PM »
Perusing the GAR model is also fun to see how Gardiner has been the best Leaf defenseman for the past 3 years and it's not even particularly close. Rielly this year is buoyed significantly by his offense and is the best offensive season ever for a Leafs defenseman.

2016-2019 (so far)
PlayerGoals Above Replacement
Victor Hedman42.2
Mark Giordano39.5
Brett Pesce35
Erik Karlsson34.6
Jared Spurgeon34
John Klingberg34
Jake Gardiner33.3
Colton Parayko30.9
John Carlson30.1
Alex Pietrangelo29.4

I don't know how this works but a metric that ranks Alex Tuch, Nate Schmidt and Leon Draisatl (among many others) this year over Connor McDavid seems a little fishy:

https://evolving-hockey.com/

He's getting a lot of points, but this model measures impact across several elements of the game that contribute to goals.

If you grab the last 3 seasons combined (2016-2019) rather than just this current incomplete season, McDavid is sitting pretty at 62 GAR, nearly 20 pts higher than the next batch of awesome players (Pastrnak, Stone, Kucherov).

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #759 on: January 14, 2019, 04:57:22 PM »

Leafs fans that complain about Gardiner really have no idea how bad the Leafs defense would be without him in the lineup.  Having Jake out of this current group and trying to plug in a Marincin or Holl or something like Rosen would be a disaster waiting to happen.
We complain because from a pure defensive view he's not very good. Too many mistakes. We're not asking for a plug to take his spot. We need an upgrade in his spot because he's not good enough defensively to get the minutes he does. We all know that the Leafs aren't going to pay him whatever he'll get on the open market either so he becomes an own rental or we move him at the deadline.

Offline Zee

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #760 on: January 14, 2019, 05:15:43 PM »

Leafs fans that complain about Gardiner really have no idea how bad the Leafs defense would be without him in the lineup.  Having Jake out of this current group and trying to plug in a Marincin or Holl or something like Rosen would be a disaster waiting to happen.
We complain because from a pure defensive view he's not very good. Too many mistakes. We're not asking for a plug to take his spot. We need an upgrade in his spot because he's not good enough defensively to get the minutes he does. We all know that the Leafs aren't going to pay him whatever he'll get on the open market either so he becomes an own rental or we move him at the deadline.
Once again, it's not just Gardiner out there. He has a partner who isn't good enough to be 2nd pair and might just be a replacement level player on defense.  I could see Gardiner flourishing on another team when he's paired with someone good.

Gardiner won't be back next year  so just enjoy his offense and hope he plays well in the playoffs because next season it's a whole new ball game on the back end. Hopefully Dermott can take those Gardiner minutes, but they'll need upgrades on the right side to see any substantial overall improvement.

Online bustaheims

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #761 on: January 14, 2019, 05:53:06 PM »
Once again, it's not just Gardiner out there. He has a partner who isn't good enough to be 2nd pair and might just be a replacement level player on defense.

And for a team that, in general, does a piss poor job of providing support for their defensemen most nights. A lot of Gardiner's poor plays come in situations where he doesn't have a good, easy outlet for the puck. If the team played a more responsible style - as in, if a forward or two stayed in the defensive zone when the puck was there, instead of everyone blowing the zone for a stretch pass, or one of them coming down deeper into the defensive zone to help alleviate the pressure from the opposition's forecheck - you'd see a lot of Gardiner's issues disappear. And this isn't a Gardiner specific issue. This is something that's true for almost every blue liner in the league.
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Offline Zee

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #762 on: January 14, 2019, 06:34:56 PM »
Once again, it's not just Gardiner out there. He has a partner who isn't good enough to be 2nd pair and might just be a replacement level player on defense.

And for a team that, in general, does a piss poor job of providing support for their defensemen most nights. A lot of Gardiner's poor plays come in situations where he doesn't have a good, easy outlet for the puck. If the team played a more responsible style - as in, if a forward or two stayed in the defensive zone when the puck was there, instead of everyone blowing the zone for a stretch pass, or one of them coming down deeper into the defensive zone to help alleviate the pressure from the opposition's forecheck - you'd see a lot of Gardiner's issues disappear. And this isn't a Gardiner specific issue. This is something that's true for almost every blue liner in the league.
People that think subtracting Gardiner off the Leafs immediately improves the defense are misguided. The major issue with the defense is the entire right side, it's why opposition teams target that side again and again.

Offline Frycer14

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #763 on: January 14, 2019, 06:47:36 PM »
I don't know if I'm going to do this justice, but here's my take: when a forward makes a high-skill play in the offensive zone, and the pass gets deflected, or hits a skate, or whatever, nobody really bats an eyelid. The play turns into backcheck, and the game continues without a great deal of commentary.

When a defenceman makes a high-skill play to maintain possession via skating the puck out, or a transition pass under pressure, etc, and it fails, and ends up as a shot on goal or a chance to score, the player is pilloried. But for the other 19 out of 20 times it's done successfully, it translates into possession, potentially a rush up ice, and all those good things. Gardiner makes the high skill play happen routinely enough that it's worth the tradeoff for the occasional giveaway, because the net effect is overwhelmingly positive. It's the nature of the position that makes mistakes overly visible, and unrepresentative of the overall positives.

Sure, we could have him change his game to an "off the glass and out" style, and he'd rarely be blamed directly for chances against, but we'd also be giving up a huge amount of offence by turning the puck over outside the zone consistently. 

Like it or not, if Gards makes it to free agency, someone is going to open their wallet, big time.

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #764 on: January 14, 2019, 11:35:43 PM »
Once again, it's not just Gardiner out there. He has a partner who isn't good enough to be 2nd pair and might just be a replacement level player on defense.

And for a team that, in general, does a piss poor job of providing support for their defensemen most nights. A lot of Gardiner's poor plays come in situations where he doesn't have a good, easy outlet for the puck. If the team played a more responsible style - as in, if a forward or two stayed in the defensive zone when the puck was there, instead of everyone blowing the zone for a stretch pass, or one of them coming down deeper into the defensive zone to help alleviate the pressure from the opposition's forecheck - you'd see a lot of Gardiner's issues disappear. And this isn't a Gardiner specific issue. This is something that's true for almost every blue liner in the league.

Fair enough, but they utilize the stretch pass play precisely because Rielly and Gardiner have the skill to pull it off routinely.

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #764 on: January 14, 2019, 11:35:43 PM »