Author Topic: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion  (Read 30386 times)

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Online herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #450 on: November 05, 2018, 12:49:20 PM »
These are very cool:

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #450 on: November 05, 2018, 12:49:20 PM »

Online herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #451 on: November 05, 2018, 08:16:31 PM »

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #452 on: November 06, 2018, 08:31:00 AM »
Oh great, Gauthier's making me agree with Jeff O'Neill.

Where were these charts when I was passionately defending Philippe Dupuis' play in 2011?

Online Guilt Trip

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #453 on: November 06, 2018, 12:10:00 PM »
Jeff O'Neill makes me laugh. Love his non sugar coated comments.

Online herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #454 on: November 10, 2018, 10:53:32 AM »
[...]
Quote
What I’ve really come to understand from doing this project is that we can’t live by what’s counted for as shots on goal in an official capacity. The only way you can be 100 percent accurate is if you have two sets of eyes on every game — live on the game and then another person on the computer reconciling what’s coming in. We have first, second and third looks at every chance. Our numbers will never be the same as the NHL’s. And we’re OK with that because we’re doing the due diligence that needs to be done. This affects shooting percentages, save percentages, things that are coming into play when contracts are being discussed.

Distance from the net, plus deflections on the ice don’t go in as frequently as ones off the ice. It wasn’t really that hard of a save. When you look at our designations, your goalie can never let a red one in. You need saves on the yellow ones and you can live with goals on the green ones because you’re only supposed to give up maybe six a night. And one of every three of the high-percentage shots goes in every night. One of three, one of three — breakaways, odd-man rushes, broken plays, it always comes back to that range.

That last part might give an indication as to why the Leafs have overused the stretch pass play. When it works, it's a 27-30% chance at a goal. When it doesn't, it's the puck in a reset position. What they need to do more is use a larger variety of plays to take advantage of a defense that is defending the stretch pass (a la football runs vs throws).

Good thing I didn't bother looking up more numbers about this.

https://theathletic.com/643939/2018/11/10/tulloch-the-value-of-the-stretch-pass-and-how-the-leafs-can-better-utilize-it/



If that's the gamble (and note that a scoring chance off a successful stretch pass is a partial/full breakaway, which has a 27-30% chance of resulting in a goal), then yeah, of course they're going to fire away (oh man, wait 'til you see Liljegren on the Leafs). If a stretch pass completes, it's either a rush chance, or an opportunity to set up on a panicking defense. If it misses, it's either an icing, or a turnover in the other zone with all players on top of the puck.

What we've seen lately is better forward support recognizing when the stretch play is not the right option and swinging lower (F3 below the blue), and generally more skill with the puck up and down the lineup to facilitate holding and waiting a little bit longer.

The guys they're firing up the ice are the diggers who aren't really handlers (Hyman, Brown) or speedsters (Kapanen, Ennis). If you can spring Kapanen for 3 breakaways a game, he's going to average out just a hair under a goal per game if he only had average skill (he has more than that).

Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #455 on: November 10, 2018, 11:25:30 AM »
Babcock's rationale:

« Last Edit: November 10, 2018, 11:29:01 AM by hockeyfan1 »

Online herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #456 on: November 10, 2018, 09:12:37 PM »

S’gonna be beautiful.

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #457 on: November 10, 2018, 10:16:45 PM »

S’gonna be beautiful.

So anybody picturing TML (Timothy Mattias Liljegren) getting called up to TML this season?

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #458 on: November 10, 2018, 10:23:19 PM »
So anybody picturing TML (Timothy Mattias Liljegren) getting called up to TML this season?

Anything's possible but I wouldn't count on it. Still seeing comments that his defensive game needs work. A full season getting top pairing minutes on the Marlies is probably the best plan.

Online herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #459 on: November 12, 2018, 03:59:44 PM »

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #460 on: November 14, 2018, 01:30:23 PM »

Online L K

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #461 on: November 17, 2018, 09:14:36 AM »
I think the Leafs might actually be good?

1st in the league in points with 28
1st in the league in goals with 70
7th in the league in goals against with 51
1st in the league in goal differential at +19

Online herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #462 on: November 17, 2018, 10:28:51 AM »
I think the Leafs might actually be good?

1st in the league in points with 28
1st in the league in goals with 70
7th in the league in goals against with 51
1st in the league in goal differential at +19

They’ve been really solid starting from that Dallas PDO loss at the beginning of the month, maybe even the Winnipeg set barring those blips to Pittsburgh and Calgary. The big difference has been the team effort in puck pursuit and sort outs on retrieval.

Offline bustaheims

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #463 on: November 17, 2018, 10:31:58 AM »
I think the Leafs might actually be good?

1st in the league in points with 28
1st in the league in goals with 70
7th in the league in goals against with 51
1st in the league in goal differential at +19

It's even more impressive when you consider they've done it all without Nylander, and a good chunk without Matthews.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline sickbeast

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #464 on: November 17, 2018, 11:32:23 AM »
I still have concerns that certain teams such as Boston will be able to completely shut the Leafs offense down.  Also big physical teams like Washington give me pause.  Isn't that when Auston Matthews got hurt?

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #464 on: November 17, 2018, 11:32:23 AM »