Author Topic: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion  (Read 19019 times)

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Offline herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #450 on: November 05, 2018, 12:49:20 PM »
These are very cool:

Offline herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #451 on: November 05, 2018, 08:16:31 PM »

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #452 on: November 06, 2018, 08:31:00 AM »
Oh great, Gauthier's making me agree with Jeff O'Neill.

Where were these charts when I was passionately defending Philippe Dupuis' play in 2011?

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #453 on: November 06, 2018, 12:10:00 PM »
Jeff O'Neill makes me laugh. Love his non sugar coated comments.

Offline herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #454 on: November 10, 2018, 10:53:32 AM »
[...]
Quote
What I’ve really come to understand from doing this project is that we can’t live by what’s counted for as shots on goal in an official capacity. The only way you can be 100 percent accurate is if you have two sets of eyes on every game — live on the game and then another person on the computer reconciling what’s coming in. We have first, second and third looks at every chance. Our numbers will never be the same as the NHL’s. And we’re OK with that because we’re doing the due diligence that needs to be done. This affects shooting percentages, save percentages, things that are coming into play when contracts are being discussed.

Distance from the net, plus deflections on the ice don’t go in as frequently as ones off the ice. It wasn’t really that hard of a save. When you look at our designations, your goalie can never let a red one in. You need saves on the yellow ones and you can live with goals on the green ones because you’re only supposed to give up maybe six a night. And one of every three of the high-percentage shots goes in every night. One of three, one of three — breakaways, odd-man rushes, broken plays, it always comes back to that range.

That last part might give an indication as to why the Leafs have overused the stretch pass play. When it works, it's a 27-30% chance at a goal. When it doesn't, it's the puck in a reset position. What they need to do more is use a larger variety of plays to take advantage of a defense that is defending the stretch pass (a la football runs vs throws).

Good thing I didn't bother looking up more numbers about this.

https://theathletic.com/643939/2018/11/10/tulloch-the-value-of-the-stretch-pass-and-how-the-leafs-can-better-utilize-it/



If that's the gamble (and note that a scoring chance off a successful stretch pass is a partial/full breakaway, which has a 27-30% chance of resulting in a goal), then yeah, of course they're going to fire away (oh man, wait 'til you see Liljegren on the Leafs). If a stretch pass completes, it's either a rush chance, or an opportunity to set up on a panicking defense. If it misses, it's either an icing, or a turnover in the other zone with all players on top of the puck.

What we've seen lately is better forward support recognizing when the stretch play is not the right option and swinging lower (F3 below the blue), and generally more skill with the puck up and down the lineup to facilitate holding and waiting a little bit longer.

The guys they're firing up the ice are the diggers who aren't really handlers (Hyman, Brown) or speedsters (Kapanen, Ennis). If you can spring Kapanen for 3 breakaways a game, he's going to average out just a hair under a goal per game if he only had average skill (he has more than that).

Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #455 on: November 10, 2018, 11:25:30 AM »
Babcock's rationale:

« Last Edit: November 10, 2018, 11:29:01 AM by hockeyfan1 »

Offline herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #456 on: November 10, 2018, 09:12:37 PM »

S’gonna be beautiful.

Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #457 on: November 10, 2018, 10:16:45 PM »

S’gonna be beautiful.

So anybody picturing TML (Timothy Mattias Liljegren) getting called up to TML this season?

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #458 on: November 10, 2018, 10:23:19 PM »
So anybody picturing TML (Timothy Mattias Liljegren) getting called up to TML this season?

Anything's possible but I wouldn't count on it. Still seeing comments that his defensive game needs work. A full season getting top pairing minutes on the Marlies is probably the best plan.

Offline herman

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #459 on: November 12, 2018, 03:59:44 PM »

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #460 on: Today at 01:30:23 PM »

TMLfans.ca

Re: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
« Reply #460 on: Today at 01:30:23 PM »