Author Topic: Contracts for the Big-3  (Read 37399 times)

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Offline freer

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #285 on: September 15, 2018, 10:28:02 PM »
IMO He is worth 6.3 at the most.
He is not worth 7 plus.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #286 on: September 15, 2018, 11:30:02 PM »
IMO He is worth 6.3 at the most.
He is not worth 7 plus.

Others have mentioned this at times as well, but term is just as important as the cap hit here. You can't discuss one without the other. Nylander at $7mil on a 5 or 6 year deal? I dunno, maybe. But Nylander at $7mil on a 7 or 8 year deal? Yeah, you're probably overpaying for a season or two but after that that contract is gonna start to look like an absolute steal for the remainder of it.

Offline Hobbes

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #287 on: September 15, 2018, 11:57:27 PM »
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.
Kadri only makes $4.5 and is on a great deal. Next season both Gardiner and Hainsey are up so that adds up to $7M. Of course you'd have to replace them with 2 guys on ELCs...if Dermott can replace Gardiner and maybe Lilegejren makes the jump next season they might be able to do it.

Hainsey will not be resigned.  The Leafs may need to let Gardiner walk too, but Nylander at 7ish is what's going to happen and it's fine. And 7 is closer to 4.5 than it is 11.
Yeah that's what I'm saying, Leafs could make a Nylander contract of $7M work, if they can somehow trade Marleau next off-season even better since that's another $6.25 off the cap. Of course you'll need allot of internal options to step up like Holl, Carrick, Rosen on D, Kapanen, Johnsson, Grundstrom and maybe even Bracco on forward to round out the cheap roster options

It definitely part of the plan to take advantage of young cheap talent. Marleau will also definitely be a topic next off season.

Doesn't Marleau have a NMC? If so, he's probably not all that eager to move unless he has a shiny new Stanley Cup ring on his finger from this year.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #288 on: September 16, 2018, 12:35:21 AM »

The contracts I keep coming back to as comps are the Scheifele, Mackinnon and Monahan deals and I think when you dig at them they actually support some of what we're hearing about Nylander's ask if a 7-8 year deal is really on the table.

Scheifele signed his 8 year extension at 8.39% of the cap. In today's dollars that's about 6.67 per. Mackinnon(7 years) at 8.63% which is 6.86 per.  Monahan(also 7 years) signed his at 8.73%, or 6.94 per. Sort of interestingly, I think it sorts out nicely as by production over their first three years it's the same order:

Scheifele: 144 points
Mackinnon: 153 points
Monahan: 159 points

Nylander, if you pro-rate his first year out, would have clocked 170 points over his first three seasons.

Anyways, so that means that, per point Monahan got roughly .055% of the cap on his extension, Mackinnon got .056% and Scheifele, who was the only one who signed an 8 as opposed to a 7 year deal, did the best at .058. 

So by using these comps what would Nylander figure to get? Well, at the Monahan rate it's 9.26% of the cap or 7.26 million, use Mackinnon's rate it's 7.52 million and use Scheifele's and it's 7.84 million.

This is a simplification of things but I really think that if Dubas is pushing an 8 year deal than just going by that Scheifele comp the 8 million dollar a year ask probably came from this kind of thinking as opposed to just trying to pin it to the Draisaitl deal. Either way, I think it's tough to look at his first three years and not see that 7-8 million is at the very least a justifiable ask when really looking at the comps.
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Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #289 on: September 16, 2018, 05:54:49 AM »
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.
Kadri only makes $4.5 and is on a great deal. Next season both Gardiner and Hainsey are up so that adds up to $7M. Of course you'd have to replace them with 2 guys on ELCs...if Dermott can replace Gardiner and maybe Lilegejren makes the jump next season they might be able to do it.

Hainsey will not be resigned.  The Leafs may need to let Gardiner walk too, but Nylander at 7ish is what's going to happen and it's fine. And 7 is closer to 4.5 than it is 11.
Yeah that's what I'm saying, Leafs could make a Nylander contract of $7M work, if they can somehow trade Marleau next off-season even better since that's another $6.25 off the cap. Of course you'll need allot of internal options to step up like Holl, Carrick, Rosen on D, Kapanen, Johnsson, Grundstrom and maybe even Bracco on forward to round out the cheap roster options

It definitely part of the plan to take advantage of young cheap talent. Marleau will also definitely be a topic next off season.

Doesn't Marleau have a NMC? If so, he's probably not all that eager to move unless he has a shiny new Stanley Cup ring on his finger from this year.

He does. Which is why it will be an interesting topic. Will he still be performing? Will his contract hold the Leafs back? Will he retire or rather be 'injured'?

Offline disco

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #290 on: September 16, 2018, 12:53:18 PM »
I'm anticipating an "internal-cap" moving forward with Willy, Mitchy, Auston and beyond, as many more learned pundits have pontificated. If you're interesting in shaving a million off market-value in order to be surrounded by elite players and cheap young talent in perpetual contention for cups for the next decade, then by all means, please do business with The Toronto Maple Leafs moving forward. If you need full market value at all costs, well, all the best to you. Some player's priorities are a bit different. Kyle said something similar fielding questions at his alma mater the other day along the lines of being able to keep this core of young talent together long term.
"I'm here for (5) more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #291 on: September 16, 2018, 01:01:10 PM »
If you're interesting in shaving a million off market-value in order to be surrounded by elite players and cheap young talent in perpetual contention for cups for the next decade, then by all means, please do business with The Toronto Maple Leafs moving forward.

That might not be the best negotiating tact when the big contracts they're negotiating are with the three guys who make up the bulk of the "elite talent" the Leafs have.

If Marner, Nylander and Matthews all want market value you're going to what...trade them all? Or keep trying to sell Auston Matthews on the fact that if he signs with the Leafs he'll get to play with great young players like Auston Matthews?
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Online Highlander

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #292 on: September 16, 2018, 02:18:14 PM »
Its funny that our phycology is so similar, when we go to sell our homes we think the value is so far over market, just because its ours, then we settle for market or close to it.

Willie's camp are probably thinking along the same terms, I am worth more because it is me and I am one of the best that may ever play this game.  And he may well be proven out as so but if Pasternak is making what 6.5M then why does Willie think he is worth so much more?

I just can't see him sitting at home much longer while all his "Buds" are playing the game they all love.  I understand this is a business, but it is starting to leave a bad taste in my mouth, don't know about you. 
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Offline Zee

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #293 on: September 16, 2018, 02:22:52 PM »
Its funny that our phycology is so similar, when we go to sell our homes we think the value is so far over market, just because its ours, then we settle for market or close to it.

Willie's camp are probably thinking along the same terms, I am worth more because it is me and I am one of the best that may ever play this game.  And he may well be proven out as so but if Pasternak is making what 6.5M then why does Willie think he is worth so much more?

I just can't see him sitting at home much longer while all his "Buds" are playing the game they all love.  I understand this is a business, but it is starting to leave a bad taste in my mouth, don't know about you.

I mean it's the reality around the league.  Players realize there are limits to how many huge contracts you can have on one team.  The true stars will make their money regardless, it's a matter of whether they want to try and stay on a team with a good chance of winning.  They CAN sign all the big guys like Matthews etc to huge contracts, but the players have to realize that anyone below the top 2 lines will be on league minimum salaries in that case.  You can't have 4-5 players making $10M or more, it's just not going to work.  So either they realize that reality in Toronto, or they realize it as they're all split up to separate teams and earn the max amounts they can while surrounded with lesser talent. 

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #294 on: September 16, 2018, 02:24:36 PM »
And he may well be proven out as so but if Pasternak is making what 6.5M then why does Willie think he is worth so much more?

I just wrote a whole long post about what the thinking behind his ask might be. It was good. I did math and everything.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2018, 02:29:10 PM by Nik the Trik »
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #295 on: September 16, 2018, 02:38:07 PM »

Also, re: Pastrnak, Nylander's PPG on his ELC is higher and he's a C and etc, etc, etc.

So while I'm sure it's a comparison that the Leafs are going to try and lean on heavily in negotiations, I'm not sure it's as good here as people want it to be.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Guru Tugginmypuddah

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #296 on: September 16, 2018, 02:58:15 PM »
Well, according to Nik's excellent math and sleuthing skills, $8x8 for Nylander isn't out of the question.  The only thing we really don't know is what Nylander is really asking for, and what the Leafs are really offering.  If we did, then our vitriol could be aimed more accurately. 

If the Leafs are going to try and sell their RFA's on touchy feely unicorns and rainbows "take one for the team" "don't you want to be part of something grand?" scheme, then I think they will be sadly disappointed. 

They may be able to pull on the sentimental heart strings of home town boys like Tavares, but guys like Nylander really couldn't give a crap about the Leafs and if they ever win a cup. 

Online herman

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #297 on: September 16, 2018, 03:00:17 PM »
I just wrote a whole long post about what the thinking behind his ask might be. It was good. I did math and everything.

Yeah it was, as were the others you wrote before. I thought Id have to do a lot of the heavy lifting in this thread to stump for Nylander, but his performance speaks for itself pretty plainly, despite the narratives the media and fan base concoct in the absence of information.

Nylander outperforming most of his comps needs to also take into consideration his lower TOI, and generally fettered deployment for stretches of the seasons hes played. This is a high high high end player; imagine what his numbers would be like if he was deployed like Bozak.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2018, 03:07:53 PM by herman »

Offline Zee

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #298 on: September 16, 2018, 03:05:59 PM »
Well, according to Nik's excellent math and sleuthing skills, $8x8 for Nylander isn't out of the question.  The only thing we really don't know is what Nylander is really asking for, and what the Leafs are really offering.  If we did, then our vitriol could be aimed more accurately. 

If the Leafs are going to try and sell their RFA's on touchy feely unicorns and rainbows "take one for the team" "don't you want to be part of something grand?" scheme, then I think they will be sadly disappointed. 

They may be able to pull on the sentimental heart strings of home town boys like Tavares, but guys like Nylander really couldn't give a crap about the Leafs and if they ever win a cup.
I'm not tied to any one player in particular, I just want the Leafs to win the Cup. If they get to a point where Nylander is missing regular season games and won't take a salary that's going to work for the club I have no issue if they look to move him. You'd be able to do pretty well in a trade in getting back a young prospect and pick and hope that one of Johnsson / Kapanen / other pick up the slack left by Nylander on a way cheaper deal. It's sad but it's the reality. Other teams get players to all "fall in" on a team salary structure, why should the Leafs be any different?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #299 on: September 16, 2018, 03:08:21 PM »
Actually, if you do the same % of the cap per point calculation that I did with the Monahan, Mackinnon and Scheifele deals for Pastrnak then Nylander actually does just as well.

Pastrnak got .072 of the cap per point over his ELC. Without pro-rating Nylander, because they played roughly the same number of games, at .072 of the cap per point he'd be at 9.75% of the cap or 7.75 million per.
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Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« Reply #299 on: September 16, 2018, 03:08:21 PM »