Author Topic: Leafs worst 1st round pick  (Read 1325 times)

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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2017, 11:39:58 AM »
Luke is not a bust because he gave us JVR and I believe he is still playing somewhere in the NHL.

He plays for Arizona.  I guess that stuff should factor in to the decision.  If you were able to recoup something from the situation, then the pick probably isn't that bad, and the thread title does say "Leafs worst 1st round pick". 

I think I get tied up on the "what could have been" scenarios when I look at some of these lists from the past.  For me, the 80's were just so much of a debacle.  They had a lot of high draft picks, and they should have been able to turn that in to something that was more sustainable than what they ended up with.  Probably that is what causes me to have this feeling that the other shoe is going to drop with the current Leafs, even though the situations are pretty different.   
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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2017, 11:39:58 AM »

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2017, 11:43:58 AM »
So I guess he doesn't really qualify because he had a NHL career but maybe some thought to it being getting Thornton with the #3 pick in what was one of the 5 best NHL drafts of all time?

Yeah, but the Ballard factor is in there for that one - that's the infamous Belleville Bulls draft, when the rumour is the scouting department didn't have the budget to scout too far outside the GTA.
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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2017, 11:44:37 AM »

So I guess he doesn't really qualify because he had a NHL career but maybe some thought to it being getting Thornton with the #3 pick in what was one of the 5 best NHL drafts of all time?

Yeah, so when I was looking at it, I had Pearson,  Convery and Thorton as my top three.   Biggs was fourth just because of the position he was taken in the draft.  I feel that higher picks should have a higher chance of being something.  I moved away from Thorton because as you mentioned, he had a pretty long career, but it should have been better given his position.
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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2017, 11:47:24 AM »
So I guess he doesn't really qualify because he had a NHL career but maybe some thought to it being getting Thornton with the #3 pick in what was one of the 5 best NHL drafts of all time?

Yeah, but the Ballard factor is in there for that one - that's the infamous Belleville Bulls draft, when the rumour is the scouting department didn't have the budget to scout too far outside the GTA.

Yep, I think I missed Rob Pearson on the list as well.
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #19 on: November 16, 2017, 11:50:39 AM »
So I guess he doesn't really qualify because he had a NHL career but maybe some thought to it being getting Thornton with the #3 pick in what was one of the 5 best NHL drafts of all time?

Yeah, but the Ballard factor is in there for that one - that's the infamous Belleville Bulls draft, when the rumour is the scouting department didn't have the budget to scout too far outside the GTA.

Yep, I think I missed Rob Pearson on the list as well.


And the 3rd guy from that 1st round, Steve Bancroft (6 NHL games played, 5 of them coming when he was 30 years old).

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2017, 11:53:19 AM »
So I guess he doesn't really qualify because he had a NHL career but maybe some thought to it being getting Thornton with the #3 pick in what was one of the 5 best NHL drafts of all time?

Yeah, but the Ballard factor is in there for that one - that's the infamous Belleville Bulls draft, when the rumour is the scouting department didn't have the budget to scout too far outside the GTA.

True. But at least in that case Stellick hadn't just gotten the job.

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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #21 on: November 16, 2017, 11:55:52 AM »

So I guess he doesn't really qualify because he had a NHL career but maybe some thought to it being getting Thornton with the #3 pick in what was one of the 5 best NHL drafts of all time?

Is it really considered this? I was looking at that draft list when this thread came up and wasn't really all that impressed with it. I mean it defined the Red Wings for a generation sure, but aside from that it doesn't really stand out that much.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2017, 12:04:14 PM »

So I guess he doesn't really qualify because he had a NHL career but maybe some thought to it being getting Thornton with the #3 pick in what was one of the 5 best NHL drafts of all time?

Is it really considered this? I was looking at that draft list when this thread came up and wasn't really all that impressed with it. I mean it defined the Red Wings for a generation sure, but aside from that it doesn't really stand out that much.

Yeah, actually, I wrote that only really remembering the Red Wings. It's still got Sundin, Bure, Guerin, Kolzig and some other pretty solid players but I'm probably guilty of hyperbole there.
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Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2017, 12:10:58 PM »

Pearson or Convery I suppose. I'm inclined to lean towards Convery if only because it's post-Ballard and the team was at least in theory being run by competent professionals.

I thought about Convery as well, but when you look at the draft, they only really missed out on Gonchar, Jason Smith or Martin Straka.  It wasn't an overly strong draft, so it depends on how that factors in to the whole biggest miss equation.

Yeah, but with '88 you're talking about Stellick making the pick with 6 weeks on the job and with the crazy old man probably yelling something about no europeans. It's a lousy pick but understandable given the circumstances.

I agree, easy to understand why it happened that way.  Still, its the worst 1st round mistake for the Leafs. 

(This comment below is not directed at you Nik, just a general point of view)

The benefit of hindsight makes it easy to look at each draft and say "we missed on x, y, and z".  From my perspective, you should only look at the 10-15 picks after the Leafs position to see who was in the same ballpark around that draft slot.  If 20 teams pass on a guy who doesn't go until the 3rd round, hard to say the Leafs screwed the pooch that badly.

So, looking back at all the bad picks the Leafs made and who was good that was taken within the next dozen or so picks:

1988 Pearson (Gelinas, Roenick, Brind'amour, Selanne)
1992 Convery (Gonchar, Straka, Smith....  Krivokrasov (450 NHL Games), Nazarov (571 NHL Games) were ok)
1995 Ware (Biron, Sykora... Gauthier (554 NHL Games), Brown (437 NHL games), Morozov (450 games, 219 pts), plus Boucher and Denis were ok goalies)
2011 Biggs/Percy (Danault, Namestnikov, Rakell, Jenner)

1999 Cereda is a bit of a special case, as he ended up having a heart condition.  Martin Havlat went two spots later though :(

As bad as Biggs/Percy selections were, what was even worse about it was some of the selections made with picks the Leafs had at some point on draft day... Rakell, Gibson, and Josh Manson.  Other players taken with picks the Leafs had at some point prior to the draft but were traded away:  Brandon Saad and Dougie Hamilton. Just bad asset management by the Leafs- Probably the worst draft day for the Leafs in franchise history.  Leivo and Sparks are all that remain. 

Worst pick, I'd lean towards Pearson because of the quality that came with the next 4 picks. When picking 6th, you don't want to come out of it with Pearson when Roenick, Brind'amour, and Selanne go shortly afterward.
 

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2017, 12:14:54 PM »
While looking at these mistakes can be pretty depressing, let's never forget that all of this led us to Auston Matthews.

Offline Zee

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2017, 12:31:47 PM »
I remember Luca Cereda, he blazed the trail for Nico Hischier

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2017, 12:34:05 PM »
True. But at least in that case Stellick hadn't just gotten the job.

That's also true, but it wasn't like he was being provided with the full breadth of information he should have had. He was also basically a completely unqualified puppet for Ballard.
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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #27 on: November 16, 2017, 12:37:35 PM »
We probably don't have time to review which of the drafts was the worst of all time.
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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #28 on: November 16, 2017, 12:41:29 PM »
So I guess he doesn't really qualify because he had a NHL career but maybe some thought to it being getting Thornton with the #3 pick in what was one of the 5 best NHL drafts of all time?

Yeah, but the Ballard factor is in there for that one - that's the infamous Belleville Bulls draft, when the rumour is the scouting department didn't have the budget to scout too far outside the GTA.

Yep, I think I missed Rob Pearson on the list as well.


And the 3rd guy from that 1st round, Steve Bancroft (6 NHL games played, 5 of them coming when he was 30 years old).

I went back and added those two in.  I had forgotten that Rob Pearson was a 1st rounder.  The dude who played on Lindros's wing.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2017, 12:57:23 PM by Significantly Insignificant »
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Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2017, 03:13:29 PM »
A very minor point, but I think it's worth distinguishing "biggest bust" from "biggest miss." They aren't the same.  A player can't control where he's drafted relative to other players; the GM is to blame (or to credit) for that.  To me, a bust would be someone who didn't play at all, or very little, in the league.  By that definition you just look at the goose egg stats for Biggs et al.


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Re: Leafs worst 1st round pick
« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2017, 03:13:29 PM »