Looking down the pipeline

[mr grieves]

Marner has done well at center this year in a small sample size and although all indications and predictions had Nylander moving to center next season I can see Nylander staying on the top line taking the occasional RH faceoff like this year with Marner moving to 3rd line center by next season to replace Bozak who was simply a NCAA UFA signing and could theoretically be replaced by a similar one.

I'm still assuming Nylander is moving to centre. I know there's a debate, but it's an option and one that Babcock wants to implement. If that does happen then there is no centre problem. Maybe a winger problem, but the depth there is pretty good.

My guess is that Nylander will eventually move to center and Marner will be on a separate line from both him and Matthews, driving if not centering it.

Absent the fast emergence of Liljegren or Dermott really blowing the doors off the place in his rookie year, I'd expect they'd re-sign Gardiner... and, if the current AHLers and Euros fill out the blue below, they'd be able to:

So, in 3 years or so:

Mucker - Matthews - Scorer
Mucker - Nylander - Scorer
Scorer - Center - Marner

Gardiner - Rielly
Top-4 D - Zaitsev

So... you're counting on 2 prospects from among Kapanen, Leivo, Johnsson, Bracco, Rychel, etc. being able to replace JvR and, eventually (probably), Brown... and, tougher, Brooks or Aaltonen replacing Kadri.

I think they gotta start trading stuff (wingers? expiring UFAs?) and drafting to get more centers in the system.

[herman]

Pretty weird that you're projecting a centre-shortage in 3 years and assume Kadri (whose contract expires 2022) will be gone.

[pnjunction]

I'm also finding primary concern on centre a bit odd when if you put Matthew and Nylander at the top-2 centre spots and Marner on the 3rd line all 4 top-6 winger spots need filling.  I guess the 'mucker' spots are easier to fill but you still need 2 high-quality wingers, they'd need to be Nylander/Marleau level to match what we have now which sounds expensive/hard to obtain.

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Grundstrom-Nylander-Kapanen
Bracco-Kadri-Brown
Johnsson-Goat/Brooks/Prospect-Prospect

Looks deep to me, it'll be interesting to see which prospect take steps this year, both forward and backward.

[mr grieves]

Pretty weird that you're projecting a centre-shortage in 3 years and assume Kadri (whose contract expires 2022) will be gone.

Ach. I'm a year off. Still, if they're going to have someone who could replace him internally, he should be in the system by now -- or very soon.

I'm also finding primary concern on centre a bit odd when if you put Matthew and Nylander at the top-2 centre spots and Marner on the 3rd line all 4 top-6 winger spots need filling.  I guess the 'mucker' spots are easier to fill but you still need 2 high-quality wingers, they'd need to be Nylander/Marleau level to match what we have now which sounds expensive/hard to obtain.

When Nylander, Matthews, and Marner aren't on ELCs, I don't think it'll be possible to match what we have now in Marleau/ JvR. But there are a lot of wingers in the system, and, among them, I'm pretty confident you can find a couple capable of scoring 20 goals playing with Matthews and Nylander.

An upgrade on Bozak and replacement for Kadri seem harder to me.

[pnjunction]

An upgrade on Bozak and replacement for Kadri seem harder to me.

Kadri's tough, but when Bozak and JVR as playing like they do sometimes (last night) they look replaceable with Leivo/Marlies today...which is good news for the future I guess.

[RedLeaf]

However this lineup shakes out in the next 3-5 years, I don't see it looking as strong is it does now with all the cap flexibility we have this year and next. We have an advantage right now that we will lose soon. Hopefully we can make hay while the sun is shines.

[Highlander]

Very good article in the Athletic today about Gordeev and Mattinen. 

Seems their coaches and  G.M's are very high on both of them. Gordeev gets kudos with: "you can't find a 6'7" D man who can skate the way he skates, makes his way into the offensive zone in 3 stride instead of 5-6 most players take". Lots of poise with the puck and great offensive instincts.

Mattinen; 'man, this guy’s got the potential to be an elite level defenseman if everything kind of comes together.'”

Lets hope one of Gordeev, Mattinen or Rasanen make the leap to the big leagues or even better two of them. Imagine two 6'7" guys who can defend and also make offensive contributions. I know this is still 3 years down the road but they have lots of time to develop.

[herman]

Very good article in the Athletic today about Gordeev and Mattinen. 

Seems their coaches and  G.M's are very high on both of them. Gordeev gets kudos with: "you can't find a 6'7" D man who can skate the way he skates, makes his way into the offensive zone in 3 stride instead of 5-6 most players take". Lots of poise with the puck and great offensive instincts.

Mattinen; 'man, this guy’s got the potential to be an elite level defenseman if everything kind of comes together.'”

Lets hope one of Gordeev, Mattinen or Rasanen make the leap to the big leagues or even better two of them. Imagine two 6'7" guys who can defend and also make offensive contributions. I know this is still 3 years down the road but they have lots of time to develop.

They didn't seem like 'homerun swings' when drafted, e.g. not sneaky analytics picks of high production at low stature, but the super tall defensemen that we've been drafting can be considered 'market inefficiency' picks, in that they are low production, high stature. The low production part bugs us spreadsheet trawlers, but the scouting department was deliberately looking for players underperforming due to circumstance rather than ability. Targeting pillars that can skate and are puck smart is the key, and we're not necessarily looking for them to product directly anyway.

Whether or not these picks work out that way or not is up to those players and our dev staff. Getting even one of the picks from these past three seasons to be a pseudo-Parayko would be huge.

Edit: that said, it still would've been really nice to see a Samuel Girard-like pick or three in there too. The Liljegren pick was a gift and stroke of luck.

[Highlander]

I know how down we are on our D but when Dermott and Lilgegren take their place with Reilly, Gardiner, Zaitzev and Hainsey it looks a lot more promising.

[Coco-puffs]

I know how down we are on our D but when Dermott and Lilgegren take their place with Reilly, Gardiner, Zaitzev and Hainsey it looks a lot more promising.

Well, I'm not sure I'd pencil in Liljegren in our lineup next year.  I wouldn't be surprised if he requires another year of development.  For the rest of this year and next year we should be able to trot out:

Rielly - Hainsey/Dermott
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Borgman - Dermott/Hainsey

Hainsey and Gardiner have only 1 more season left.  Hainsey is a very long shot to still be a useful defender at 38 yrs old.  Gardiner may be a cap casualty.  Assuming both of them aren't here:

Rielly - Liljegren
Dermott - Zaitsev
Borgman - X

is where we sit two years from now.  We don't really have any other D-men I think are more than long-shots to make it to the show.  That lineup above is really stacked with offensive d-men and probably requires someone who's strong defensively, mobile, can make the right play quickly, and is preferably a right shot.

[CarltonTheBear]

That lineup above is really stacked with offensive d-men and probably requires someone who's strong defensively, mobile, can make the right play quickly, and is preferably a right shot.

[herman]

That lineup above is really stacked with offensive d-men and probably requires someone who's strong defensively, mobile, can make the right play quickly, and is preferably a right shot.

I think Dermott is the new modern defensive defenseman. He checks all your boxes here except for handedness, plus he can chip in offense (it's a pretty heavy wrist/snap shot he fires very quickly). He is pretty crazy strong for his size (the Marlies dev staff had to get him to lean back down for mobility, according to Bourne), but lacks natural wingspan. He makes up for it in his skating and uncomfortably tight gap control, i.e. breaking up plays early before box out strength is required. Borgman is similar in specifications but is far more raw than Dermott in defensive instincts, and not as elusive on his skates (Borgman prefers to go through, rather than around).

I too see Liljegren staying in the AHL next season and getting the same development diet Dermott and Rielly received (matchup defense + PK1), a) to see if he has 1D capability, b) to sneakily show Babcock/DJ Smith that PK can be done with skill too, rather than just brute strength.

[Coco-puffs]

That lineup above is really stacked with offensive d-men and probably requires someone who's strong defensively, mobile, can make the right play quickly, and is preferably a right shot.

I think Dermott is the new modern defensive defenseman. He checks all your boxes here except for handedness, plus he can chip in offense (it's a pretty heavy wrist/snap shot he fires very quickly). He is pretty crazy strong for his size (the Marlies dev staff had to get him to lean back down for mobility, according to Bourne), but lacks natural wingspan. He makes up for it in his skating and uncomfortably tight gap control, i.e. breaking up plays early before box out strength is required. Borgman is similar in specifications but is far more raw than Dermott in defensive instincts, and not as elusive on his skates (Borgman prefers to go through, rather than around).

I too see Liljegren staying in the AHL next season and getting the same development diet Dermott and Rielly received (matchup defense + PK1), a) to see if he has 1D capability, b) to sneakily show Babcock/DJ Smith that PK can be done with skill too, rather than just brute strength.

I agree that Dermott is likely going to be one of our better defensive defensemen.  Still need more in that lineup.  I'm not expecting Liljegren to become more than decent defensively while probably being one of our two PP d-men (with Rielly) and essentially replacing Gardiner's play (hopefully last year's version).

[Highlander]

Just looking at an article in the Athletic about what prospects teams can offer up in possible trades.  Of course when it came to the Leafs the names that came up could be expected like Johnsen and Lindgren  but what interests me is that "a lot of scouts are buzzing about Fedor Gordeev"
Nice to hear, one would expect it to be Rasanen