Author Topic: Jays Roster Discussion  (Read 51705 times)

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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #810 on: December 12, 2018, 12:41:06 PM »
In 87 games before the trade to Toronto, Tulo was batting .300, was on pace for 22 home runs and 99 rbi and had a .818 OPS. The year previous he had an OPS over 1.000. Not sure where that narrative comes from.

A lot of what you're seeing is just the illusion of playing in Coors Field. In his road stats in 2014 he slashed .257/.364/.447 and then in 2015 he drops to .276/.327/.409.

His Road OPS goes:

2013: .850
2014: .811
2015: .736

His .761 OPS in 2016 was actually a bit of a bounceback.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #810 on: December 12, 2018, 12:41:06 PM »

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #811 on: December 12, 2018, 04:24:45 PM »
I still don't think this move was baseball related.

Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #812 on: December 12, 2018, 05:40:31 PM »
In 87 games before the trade to Toronto, Tulo was batting .300, was on pace for 22 home runs and 99 rbi and had a .818 OPS. The year previous he had an OPS over 1.000. Not sure where that narrative comes from.

A lot of what you're seeing is just the illusion of playing in Coors Field. In his road stats in 2014 he slashed .257/.364/.447 and then in 2015 he drops to .276/.327/.409.

His Road OPS goes:

2013: .850
2014: .811
2015: .736

His .761 OPS in 2016 was actually a bit of a bounceback.

I get the Coors field bump, but his entire career was played at Coors Field and doesn't bear out a decline. His home OPS increased from 1.010 in 2013 to 1.246 in 2014.

His career "away" OPS is .791. 2013 and 2014 were both above that.

*His 2015 away OPS of .736 you listed above includes his time as a Jay. He had an .834 OPS at Coors field in 2015 and an .818 as a Rocky that year - putting his road OPS somewhere around .802 before his trade as a Jay. Honestly, I think it's all in what you'd expect from Troy Tulowitzki.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #813 on: December 12, 2018, 05:52:57 PM »
I get the Coors field bump, but his entire career was played at Coors Field and doesn't bear out a decline. His home OPS increased from 1.010 in 2013 to 1.246 in 2014.

Right, but that's why road statistics are typically used as the context-neutral baseline. During his peak years(2009-2011), Tulowitzki had Road OPS's of .859, .863 and even .881. In 2013 it was fairly consistent with that and by 2015 it had fallen more than 100 points. So the evidence that he had already begun to slip from his peak is actually pretty strong even if Coors was covering that up a little. 

One of the tricky things with Tulowitzki, because he was injured so often, is separating what of his decline is injury related, what is age related and what is just the standard variations in a baseball career. In this case though, when you compare him to his peak, it's pretty clear he was already moving away from his best years.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #814 on: December 12, 2018, 06:08:40 PM »

Another thing worth mentioning re: Tulowitzki's 2014 is that his BABIP was a fairly uncharacteristic .355 so his slightly stronger home numbers there were probably not sustainable even if he'd stayed in Colorado.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #815 on: December 12, 2018, 06:09:13 PM »
I get the Coors field bump, but his entire career was played at Coors Field and doesn't bear out a decline. His home OPS increased from 1.010 in 2013 to 1.246 in 2014.

Right, but that's why road statistics are typically used as the context-neutral baseline. During his peak years(2009-2011), Tulowitzki had Road OPS's of .859, .863 and even .881. In 2013 it was fairly consistent with that and by 2015 it had fallen more than 100 points. So the evidence that he had already begun to slip from his peak is actually pretty strong even if Coors was covering that up a little. 

One of the tricky things with Tulowitzki, because he was injured so often, is separating what of his decline is injury related, what is age related and what is just the standard variations in a baseball career. In this case though, when you compare him to his peak, it's pretty clear he was already moving away from his best years.

When the Jays traded for Tulo his road OPS hadn't fallen by more than 100 points.

I don't think anyone would argue that the Jays were trading for peak Troy Tulowitzki.

« Last Edit: December 12, 2018, 06:12:20 PM by Dappleganger »

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #816 on: December 12, 2018, 06:13:39 PM »
When the Jays traded for Tulo his road OPS hadn't fallen by more than 100 points.

Right, I didn't say it had. From where he was consistently at his peak it had fallen by around 50 points by the time of the trade which is still a pretty meaningful decline. From 2013 to 2015 it's a fairly unmistakable downward slide in his ability to hit in any ballpark other than Coors.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #817 on: December 12, 2018, 06:25:21 PM »
When the Jays traded for Tulo his road OPS hadn't fallen by more than 100 points.

Right, I didn't say it had. From where he was consistently at his peak it had fallen by around 50 points by the time of the trade which is still a pretty meaningful decline. From 2013 to 2015 it's a fairly unmistakable downward slide in his ability to hit in any ballpark other than Coors.

Sorry, got confused. I thought we were talking about before the Jays traded for him.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #818 on: December 12, 2018, 06:30:25 PM »
Sorry, got confused. I thought we were talking about before the Jays traded for him.

Right and, again, when he was at his peak his road OPS was consistently in the 860-880 range. When he was traded he'd had about 180 games over two seasons where it was about 50-70 points lower than that.

So that's the evidence for the contention that his bat was already starting to slip when he was traded.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #819 on: December 28, 2018, 10:14:18 AM »

Looks like the Jays have signed Matt Shoemaker to possibly contend for one of the back end rotation spots.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Deebo

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #820 on: December 28, 2018, 10:26:31 AM »

Looks like the Jays have signed Matt Shoemaker to possibly contend for one of the back end rotation spots.

1 year contract with another arbitration year.

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #821 on: December 28, 2018, 10:27:46 AM »
Looks like the Jays have signed Matt Shoemaker to possibly contend for one of the back end rotation spots.

Nice buy low signing. If he works out, they can trade him for a quality prospect or two at the deadline. If not, they non-tender him at the end of the year.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Deebo

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #822 on: December 28, 2018, 10:38:30 AM »
Looks like the Jays have signed Matt Shoemaker to possibly contend for one of the back end rotation spots.

Nice buy low signing. If he works out, they can trade him for a quality prospect or two at the deadline. If not, they non-tender him at the end of the year.

Pretty cheap this year too, Morosi says its for 3-3.5M

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #823 on: December 28, 2018, 11:16:09 AM »
Pretty cheap this year too, Morosi says its for 3-3.5M

Davidi confirms it's $3.5M, which makes him a very affordable pickup at the deadline. If he performs reasonably, he'll net the Jays something at the deadline - even if it's just a couple relief prospects.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Captain Canuck

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #824 on: December 31, 2018, 12:21:20 AM »
Jays acquired LH starter Clayton Richard and cash considerations from the Padres for AA OF Connor Panas. The Padres will cover half of Richard's $3 million salary for 2019.
Looks like between Shoemaker and Richard the Jays have their 2019 rotation firmed up for $5 Million combined.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2018, 12:27:23 AM by Captain Canuck »

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #824 on: December 31, 2018, 12:21:20 AM »