Author Topic: Jays Roster Discussion  (Read 47629 times)

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Offline Andy

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #450 on: July 22, 2017, 12:19:58 PM »
What do you use though? Bautista's WAR is based on his OF ability but if you want him to be a 1B in NY then that value plummets.

Well, I think the best approach to take is to not look for any single metric but rather have a composite picture based on a number of them. "How well is player X hitting" isn't a one answer question in the way that WAR, say, makes a question of a player's total raw value fairly straightforward.

Yea, I agree with that. It would be interesting to see how well Bautista would perform in a market like NY, or some place similar. He just looks, to me, like he's close to being done, especially with the way he's been playing the last few months. I really don't see any team ponying up anything that great to acquire him.

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #450 on: July 22, 2017, 12:19:58 PM »

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #451 on: July 22, 2017, 12:49:43 PM »
I really don't see any team ponying up anything that great to acquire him.

Probably not but teams have been known to make bad decisions at deadline time.
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Offline Darryl

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #452 on: July 22, 2017, 10:13:11 PM »
Anderson for Bagwell comes to mind. As does Slocumb for Varitek and Lowe.

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Offline Captain Canuck

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #453 on: July 23, 2017, 03:34:42 PM »
The Jays have traded AA 1B Ryan McBroom to the Yankees for INF/OF Rob Refsnyder. Refsnyder will report to Buffalo.

Refsnyder primarily plays 2B with some corner OF and 1B as well. Is he the short-term fill-in for Travis or a guy to replace one of Goins/Barney on the depth chart?

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #454 on: July 23, 2017, 06:52:26 PM »
The Jays have traded AA 1B Ryan McBroom to the Yankees for INF/OF Rob Refsnyder. Refsnyder will report to Buffalo.

Refsnyder primarily plays 2B with some corner OF and 1B as well. Is he the short-term fill-in for Travis or a guy to replace one of Goins/Barney on the depth chart?

They also picked up Nick Tepesh for cash today. Feels like they're bringing in some MLB capable depth/AAA replacement pieces to fill the gaps after they move out some pieces.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #455 on: July 27, 2017, 06:23:03 PM »
I heard a rumor on TSN that the Jays are going to keep both Bautista and Estrada and sign them both to contract extensions.

Offline Captain Canuck

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #456 on: July 27, 2017, 07:04:33 PM »
I heard a rumor on TSN that the Jays are going to keep both Bautista and Estrada and sign them both to contract extensions.

Sounds like complete horse $hit to me! If you are fishing I'll bite!  ;)

First off the Jays have 2 team options for Bautista for 2018 and 2019 so they already have him under control for the rest of his useful major league career if they so choose. I don't see the team electing to use those options, but at the same time Bautista can't be traded without his permission due to his 10 and 5 rights. If he doesn't allow the Jays to trade him this season I think they just elect not to pick up their option(s) on his contract and he becomes a UFA this fall.
One day Jose's name will be up on the Level of Excellence, but I don't get the sense that anyone in the organization feels he shouldn't be traded for sentimental reasons.

As for Estrada why not trade him at the deadline and then bring him back next year when he hits the UFA market if you want him that badly? It would be poor asset management NOT to take that approach with him if that is your intent.
I can't say for sure that BOTH Estrada and Liriano will be traded, but definitely feel that at least one of them will be.
The Jays would be foolish to bring Estrada back judging by the results of the last couple months. Think it is a combination of back issues and age, but believe his best days are behind him and can't help this team going forward.
Lastly on Estrada, I noticed he really went out of his way to sign a lot of autographs for Jays fans in Cleveland, could be his way of saying goodbye. He dodged the trade questions in his last interview, but his reaction to them and the look on his face were those of someone resigned to his fate.

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #457 on: July 27, 2017, 08:35:33 PM »
No, Captain Canuck, they do not control Bautista for the next two seasons, those are mutual options meaning both sides have to agree to continue it year by year.  Either side has the right to walk away.  I highly doubt that Bautista is worth exactly the $18 million or whatever the contract says for next year.  There is a 99% chance that he is either gone or they will re-negotiate a new contract.

As for your opinions on the rumors, I could see both players having interest in signing an extension now.  It would prevent them from having to be uprooted.  Both of them love Toronto, Bautista in particular, he has been here a long time.  Neither one of them is going to bring back a major prospect.  I was just reading that they might get Glen Sparkman from KC for Liriano.  Neither Bautista nor Estrada will fetch more than that.  I think there is more value in keeping both players around.  Both should hopefully sign new reasonable contracts.  If the Jays can get both of them on one year deals it would be fantastic.  Then after the 2018 season they will have their options open.  My opinion is that Bautista should be made a Blue Jay for life.  He has earned it IMO.

Offline Captain Canuck

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #458 on: July 27, 2017, 09:15:46 PM »
I stand corrected on the options, but in any event the Jays will be the ones to decide what they want to do with Bautista. I still don't believe re-negotiating a contract with Jose is one of the possibilities. He was lucky to get his current deal with the team IMO. They didn't exactly rush out to sign him last off-season did they?

You are entitled to your opinions, I just don't see how bringing back older players who you can dump this season is particularly wise for the future. You aren't going to move the Martin and Tulo contracts and have a big decision to make on Donaldson in the next year.
I heard the Sparkman rumour and think that is dumb as well. If they wanted Sparkman that badly they could have kept him and gave up nothing. To give him back to KC and then trade for him a month later is poor asset management.
You saw what the 2017 team did and yet you want to bring back the same roster and expect a different result?
If this team doesn't start building with an eye to the future you will be left with an old expensive mediocre roster with no chance at the playoffs...been there, done that!

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #459 on: July 27, 2017, 09:28:55 PM »
I stand corrected on the options, but in any event the Jays will be the ones to decide what they want to do with Bautista. I still don't believe re-negotiating a contract with Jose is one of the possibilities. He was lucky to get his current deal with the team IMO. They didn't exactly rush out to sign him last off-season did they?

You are entitled to your opinions, I just don't see how bringing back older players who you can dump this season is particularly wise for the future. You aren't going to move the Martin and Tulo contracts and have a big decision to make on Donaldson in the next year.
I heard the Sparkman rumour and think that is dumb as well. If they wanted Sparkman that badly they could have kept him and gave up nothing. To give him back to KC and then trade for him a month later is poor asset management.
You saw what the 2017 team did and yet you want to bring back the same roster and expect a different result?
If this team doesn't start building with an eye to the future you will be left with an old expensive mediocre roster with no chance at the playoffs...been there, done that!
I say buy low on both players.  At worst we will get similar results to what they are doing now.  However both could turn out to be incredible bargains, particularly Estrada.  He was an elite pitcher not long ago.  The Jays need to fill out the rotation and they are extremely thin in the outfield.  Bautista has fielded extremely well this year and he has had ok production at the plate.

It's not time to rebuild yet.  I understand your frustration, but the Jays' window is open for one more season while they still have Stroman/Donaldson/Sanchez/Pillar/Martin/Tulo.  It's just not time yet IMO.  Actually they face weak teams for the next three series, who knows what can happen.  They can throw in the towel now and get three lousy prospects like Sparkman, or they can keep going with what they have and see what happens.  IMO they should do a full scorched earth rebuild after next season if they continue to play poorly.  I don't think the time is right currently.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #460 on: July 27, 2017, 11:56:44 PM »

Estrada was never an elite pitcher. He had two pretty good back to back years(3.5 and 3.6 bWAR's) but even still that was in significantly less than 200 innings and they were both with pretty high FIPs(because he's always had trouble keeping the ball in the park, as we've seen this year, if he's not effectively the best pitcher in the league at hit suppression he's going to have real problems).

I don't know how much you want to invest in the idea of what will be a 35 year old consistently delivering a career performance year-in and out. I think we saw enough from Dickey how that isn't a great investment.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Captain Canuck

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #461 on: July 28, 2017, 12:08:16 AM »
I stand corrected on the options, but in any event the Jays will be the ones to decide what they want to do with Bautista. I still don't believe re-negotiating a contract with Jose is one of the possibilities. He was lucky to get his current deal with the team IMO. They didn't exactly rush out to sign him last off-season did they?

You are entitled to your opinions, I just don't see how bringing back older players who you can dump this season is particularly wise for the future. You aren't going to move the Martin and Tulo contracts and have a big decision to make on Donaldson in the next year.
I heard the Sparkman rumour and think that is dumb as well. If they wanted Sparkman that badly they could have kept him and gave up nothing. To give him back to KC and then trade for him a month later is poor asset management.
You saw what the 2017 team did and yet you want to bring back the same roster and expect a different result?
If this team doesn't start building with an eye to the future you will be left with an old expensive mediocre roster with no chance at the playoffs...been there, done that!
I say buy low on both players.  At worst we will get similar results to what they are doing now.  However both could turn out to be incredible bargains, particularly Estrada.  He was an elite pitcher not long ago.  The Jays need to fill out the rotation and they are extremely thin in the outfield.  Bautista has fielded extremely well this year and he has had ok production at the plate.

It's not time to rebuild yet.  I understand your frustration, but the Jays' window is open for one more season while they still have Stroman/Donaldson/Sanchez/Pillar/Martin/Tulo.  It's just not time yet IMO.  Actually they face weak teams for the next three series, who knows what can happen.  They can throw in the towel now and get three lousy prospects like Sparkman, or they can keep going with what they have and see what happens.  IMO they should do a full scorched earth rebuild after next season if they continue to play poorly.  I don't think the time is right currently.

I'm not advocating for a full out rebuild yet either, but definitely have to move some of the older guys out now. Liriano, Estrada, Joe Smith, Barney, and Bautista if you can.
You keep Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, Pillar, maybe Travis and that becomes your core to build around. Tulo and Martin stay because you can't move those contracts and then Donaldson you have to make a big decision on next year.
The most pressing needs for next year are going to be finding 1-2 starting pitchers and 1-2 outfielders. I could live with another year of Bautista if there are no better options, but don't want to see Estrada back at all. Someone like Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb would be preferable.

I'm not frustrated in the least, could tell early on that it was a lost season. Like I said I don't want to see an old, expensive non-competitive team a few seasons from now and then we spend 20 years out in the wilderness...been there, done that! The next core is already in place, just a matter of adding a few more younger guys with cheaper, controllable contracts (Refsnyder is a start) and then bringing up the Bichettes, Guerreros and Biggios.

As for this season if you think the Jays have any chance you are lying to yourself. Do the math: 41-19, 42-18...that is what it would take at minimum to make the playoffs. Getting to .500 would be a lofty goal at this point.

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #462 on: July 28, 2017, 01:04:56 AM »

Estrada was never an elite pitcher. He had two pretty good back to back years(3.5 and 3.6 bWAR's) but even still that was in significantly less than 200 innings and they were both with pretty high FIPs(because he's always had trouble keeping the ball in the park, as we've seen this year, if he's not effectively the best pitcher in the league at hit suppression he's going to have real problems).

I don't know how much you want to invest in the idea of what will be a 35 year old consistently delivering a career performance year-in and out. I think we saw enough from Dickey how that isn't a great investment.
Estrada's stats were at the top of the league for two seasons and he was lights out in the playoffs.  The way you constantly disagree with everyone here gets really boring really quickly.  Please go away and stick to hockey.  You don't know what you're talking about.  If you're going to disagree with someone at least get it right.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #463 on: July 28, 2017, 01:19:31 AM »
Estrada's stats were at the top of the league for two seasons and he was lights out in the playoffs.  The way you constantly disagree with everyone here gets really boring really quickly.  Please go away and stick to hockey.  You don't know what you're talking about.  If you're going to disagree with someone at least get it right.

You'll notice I listed actual stats in my post whereas you haven't. Estrada's "stats" range from good to bad in those years. He was top of the league in H/9 and was top 10 in WHIP and ERA+ for both years but he was never top 10 in IP, WAR, BB/9, HR/9, K/9, FIP or anything else.

So, again, two good years but nothing elite. And what largely drove his good WHIP and ERA numbers, hit suppression, isn't a stat you should put a ton of money on getting better with age.

Lastly, I don't make this personal and am using stats based arguments. You've got no standing to tell me where to post and if you don't like what I post you're free to either not respond or just generally get bent.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #464 on: July 28, 2017, 02:13:53 AM »
Jays GM Atkins and Shapiro both believe the Jays... "underperformed and underachieved both offensively and defensively this year"...

“We still feel like we have a great team for 2018 – that we’ll need to add to,” said Atkins. “That could mean subtraction from this team. It might not. We would hope to and like to for this team to remain relevant and a contending team, potentially. Now I think the odds of that have decreased dramatically, but we still feel confident we can put a quality team on the field.”


Source:   theathletic,com


While they sound like they've thrown in the towel on the season, so to speak, don't tell that to Josh Donaldson or Aaron Sanchez.  They believe the team has enough time to turn things around.   Striving for a sense of positivity in a season of negativity all around is not a bad thing.  Believing that they can actually mitigate a complete and total turnaround is something else.  The Blue Jays are gonna have to prove it on the field the rest of the way.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 02:15:39 AM by hockeyfan1 »

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #464 on: July 28, 2017, 02:13:53 AM »