Author Topic: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen  (Read 23085 times)

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Offline RedLeaf

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #165 on: February 16, 2015, 10:36:38 AM »
Everyone knows the success rate of late first round picks is much lower than the top 5 or 10. And second rounders have an even lower hit rate. That's why you need to stockpile them at times like this. Having a bunch of picks increases the chances that one or more of them pan out. Or, they give you more flexibility to make other moves (such as trading up).

Part of the Leafs problem recently has been the lack of second round picks...perhaps if we'd kept more of them we'd have one or two better prospects in the system.

Agreed. Also, getting this late 1st is almost akin to recouping the 2nd they traded away. I don't see a ton more value in a late round 1st compared to an early 2nd rounder.
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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #165 on: February 16, 2015, 10:36:38 AM »

Offline gunnar36

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #166 on: February 16, 2015, 11:07:44 AM »
Pretty good return for Franson, considering many of the posters here were willing to let him go for a bag of pucks last spring.

Offline Chev-boyar-sky

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #167 on: February 16, 2015, 11:32:03 AM »
A '1st round' pick... which for most my life would of been a 2nd rounder if it weren't for expansion.  To call it a '1st' rounder really isn't doing it justice.

There's been 30 picks in the 1st round for 15 years now. To not call it a 1st rounder or not accept it as such is to be stuck in the ancient past.

One of the oddest criticisms I've read.
If it's not in the top 10, it's turning out to be a prospect that's suspect.  And I have no problem with rolling the dice on such rather then stay the course.  How many times have the Leafs picked in the top 10?  Yeah I see Bozak as the #1 center too. 

Here's what the latest 30th overall picks are doing:
John Quenneville -Brandon Wheat Kings
Ryan Hartman 2games 0 points
Tanner Pearson 42 games 16 points
Rickard Rakell 45 games 20 points
Brock Nelson 56 games 32 points
Simon Despres 53 games 15 points
Tom McCollum Goalie -3 NHL games.
Nick Ross - Austria
Matt Corrente - Syracuse
Vladimir Mikhalik -Bratislava

I would say Brock Nelson, playing with Tavares, is probably the best looking of the bunch.  But there's more fringe players or complete wash-outs.  If you wanted a better team, having cap space is more valuable then this draft pick.  Then again, it won't surprise me to try and trade their own 1st rounder this year for Tom Kurvers.

This '1st' rounder is organizational depth at best.  It's valuable, but not worth the hype like the Leafs are going to score the next Sidney Crosby with it.

I would say the jury is still very much out on a Ross, Corrente and Mikhalik.

Any of Despres, Pearson, Rakell or Nelson would be welcome additions to this team (especially at this point). They're all young players will good skill and upside (If you watch the Islanders, you know he doesn't play with Tavares except on the odd PP).

That's 4 of the 10 you listed looking like productive NHL'ers (with 2 being too young to write off).

I'm not sure anyone is saying they're the next Crosby (but in a deeper draft it's possible that we end up with a better player than previous 30th overalls) but rather a good young player, who's cheaper for the short and longer term than either of Franson or Santorelli.

Offline Potvin29

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #168 on: February 16, 2015, 11:44:29 AM »
This '1st' rounder is organizational depth at best.  It's valuable, but not worth the hype like the Leafs are going to score the next Sidney Crosby with it.

Name someone or link to where that is something that is being said.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #169 on: February 16, 2015, 11:47:20 AM »
I would say the jury is still very much out on a Ross, Corrente and Mikhalik.

Nah, they're more likely finished as NHL players. McCollum too maybe but he's showing signs of life this season. But I'd say every single other player on that list is either a contributing young NHL player or a prospect that isn't showing any signs of busting yet.

Quenneville was just drafted and was ranked New Jersey's 3rd best prospect by Corey Pronman. Ryan "0 points" Hartman is just 20 years old and was ranked Chicago's 2nd best prospect behind Teravainen, and the 66th best prospect in the league. Pearson, Rakell, Nelson, and Despres, like you said, are all young and contributing NHL players who still haven't reached their peaks.

So that's 6 straight 30th overall picks that appear to be turning out pretty good.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #170 on: February 16, 2015, 12:05:35 PM »
But that has always been the case when poor teams trade for picks at the deadline. I don't understand why we're complaining about that.

A 1st round draft pick is still 30 picks better than a teams next best draft pick. If the Leafs couldn't have secured a 1st rounder here they would have had to settle for a 2nd round pick from a playoff team, which as we all know is basically just an early 3rd rounder. This really is a very strange thing to complain about.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #171 on: February 16, 2015, 12:26:14 PM »
If it's not in the top 10, it's turning out to be a prospect that's suspect.  And I have no problem with rolling the dice on such rather then stay the course.  How many times have the Leafs picked in the top 10?  Yeah I see Bozak as the #1 center too. 

Here's what the latest 30th overall picks are doing:
John Quenneville -Brandon Wheat Kings
Ryan Hartman 2games 0 points
Tanner Pearson 42 games 16 points
Rickard Rakell 45 games 20 points
Brock Nelson 56 games 32 points
Simon Despres 53 games 15 points
Tom McCollum Goalie -3 NHL games.
Nick Ross - Austria
Matt Corrente - Syracuse
Vladimir Mikhalik -Bratislava

I would say Brock Nelson, playing with Tavares, is probably the best looking of the bunch.  But there's more fringe players or complete wash-outs.  If you wanted a better team, having cap space is more valuable then this draft pick.  Then again, it won't surprise me to try and trade their own 1st rounder this year for Tom Kurvers.

This '1st' rounder is organizational depth at best.  It's valuable, but not worth the hype like the Leafs are going to score the next Sidney Crosby with it.

That's all disingenuous for any number of reasons. For starters we didn't trade for the 30th pick. That's the worst case scenario. The pick could end up at #22 and if you made a list of players taken there over the same time frame you'd have to include Jordan Eberle, Max Pacioretty and Claude Giroux.

But regardless, impact players are taken in the second round every single year. There is no way for a team to know who that'll be ahead of time so the best case scenario is for a team to have as many chances as possible there. The idea that the "cap space" a pick represents is more valuable than that isn't just ridiculous, it's demonstrably false. There isn't a team in the league, developing or otherwise, that would trade their first round pick just to get a couple million off the books.

More over, nobody is saying that they'll take a guaranteed superstar so the only one engaging in pointless hyperbole is you by positioning your comment as some sort of rebuttal to an argument that isn't being made
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Potvin29

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #172 on: February 16, 2015, 12:45:19 PM »
I would say the jury is still very much out on a Ross, Corrente and Mikhalik.

Nah, they're more likely finished as NHL players. McCollum too maybe but he's showing signs of life this season. But I'd say every single other player on that list is either a contributing young NHL player or a prospect that isn't showing any signs of busting yet.

Quenneville was just drafted and was ranked New Jersey's 3rd best prospect by Corey Pronman. Ryan "0 points" Hartman is just 20 years old and was ranked Chicago's 2nd best prospect behind Teravainen, and the 66th best prospect in the league. Pearson, Rakell, Nelson, and Despres, like you said, are all young and contributing NHL players who still haven't reached their peaks.

So that's 6 straight 30th overall picks that appear to be turning out pretty good.

Not to mention that it doesn't really make sense to compare specific draft positions year to year.  The success or lack of success of a specific draft position is largely irrelevant when you're talking about varying draft strengths, teams, scouts, etc.

Offline Frank E

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #173 on: February 16, 2015, 12:49:07 PM »

Not to mention that it doesn't really make sense to compare specific draft positions year to year.  The success or lack of success of a specific draft position is largely irrelevant when you're talking about varying draft strengths, teams, scouts, etc.

That's all good and fine, but I prefer my comparisons to fit into neat and tidy fake argument tables that don't prove any points whatsoever.  So I like it.

Offline moon111

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #174 on: February 16, 2015, 12:52:06 PM »
This '1st' rounder is organizational depth at best.  It's valuable, but not worth the hype like the Leafs are going to score the next Sidney Crosby with it.

Name someone or link to where that is something that is being said.
“Our goal was to get as high a pick as possible,” Leafs general manager David Nonis said via conference call.

-sorry to me this was not one of the bigger aspects of the trade.  But then again I guess Nonis wasn't about to come out and say he really just wanted to dump contracts as he's handcuffed the team.

I just wonder if this trade would be as accepted if it were Franson, Santorelli for Leipsic, Jokinen, and a 2nd rounder.  The difference between 30th and 31st overall isn't much but makes the deal so much better sounding.
Guess I'm slightly miffed? jaded? disappointed? with years of depth players coming from 1st round picks but little in the way of key players.  Clark and Damphousse were pretty decent, but a true franchise player hasn't been had since the 1970 draft.  So another late round draft pick kind of just pisses me off.  Seems like every year the Leafs are the 'worst' team ever, yet 10 or more teams nobody talks about do worst.  Result: decades of mediocre.

If Oli does join the team, will he get Komarov on the wing?
R.I.P. Maureen.  You'll always be with us.

Offline Highlander

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #175 on: February 16, 2015, 12:52:35 PM »
I am a lot more confident with Hunter and Dubois evaluating talent for the coming draft.  We can't afford another Tyler Biggs. We need guys who will play.  And we will need at least 3 strong drafts to get us to where we need to go.
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Offline Chris

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #176 on: February 16, 2015, 12:52:46 PM »
Just looking at one year - the oldest (2005) when Mihalik was picked at 30. Some players who were still available and picked later included James Neal (33, 463 games), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (35, 653 games), Paul Stastny (44, 586 games), Kris Letang (62, 472 games), Keith Yandle (105, 552 games).  And many others who played at least 200 games.

Obviously it's not easy to identify those talents or Tampa would have picked one of those players instead of Mihalik.

Also note that the players picked at #13, 14 and 16 didn't play a single NHL game.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #177 on: February 16, 2015, 12:54:07 PM »
I just wonder if this trade would be as accepted if it were Franson, Santorelli for Leipsic, Jokinen, and a 2nd rounder.  The difference between 30th and 31st overall isn't much but makes the deal so much better sounding.

But Nashville (or any team that the Leafs were talking to) didn't have the 31st overall draft pick. It would have likely been 56-60th.

Offline Highlander

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #178 on: February 16, 2015, 12:54:39 PM »
Dont forget we do have a shot at Mcdavid or Eischel if the tank goes on.
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Offline Chris

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #179 on: February 16, 2015, 12:55:25 PM »
Right, so basically if we'd made the trade with Buffalo or Edmonton and gotten their second rounder plus a prospect. Not really much difference. I'm sure some would complain but people complain about everything.

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Re: Franson, Santorelli to NSH for 1st round pick, Brendan Leipsic, Olli Jokinen
« Reply #179 on: February 16, 2015, 12:55:25 PM »