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Looking back at the playoffs and the last two teams standing, I was thinking the Leafs in it's current incarnation stack up fine against any other team; the Tampas, the San Joses, the St. Louis'... anyone not named Boston. And even them they play to 7 games. The Leafs may be much, much closer than it appears.

Looking back on the playoffs, I’d say there is a heck of a lot of random chance involved and anybody can beat anybody. The leafs could have beaten Boston but might have lost to Columbus. Sigh.
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General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Last post by Frank E on Today at 05:02:20 PM »
No way in hell I'd let Kadri go before Johnsson and Kapanen. Kadri's on a fantastic deal is a significantly greater value.

I generally agree but Kadri's really got to be on his last legs in terms of making stupid decisions. It doesn't matter how great a value his deal is when he's not in the line-up when the team needs him most.

I've given this a few more weeks of thought, and I still think there's no way that they can bring him back. What he did again this year can't be condoned.
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General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Last post by Nik the Trik on Today at 04:55:40 PM »
No way in hell I'd let Kadri go before Johnsson and Kapanen. Kadri's on a fantastic deal is a significantly greater value.

I generally agree but Kadri's really got to be on his last legs in terms of making stupid decisions. It doesn't matter how great a value his deal is when he's not in the line-up when the team needs him most.
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But if the Marner negotiations drag out, offer sheets to Kapanen and Johnsson make a ton of sense. Both guys are currently better than 90% of the 2nd round picks will be in 5 years.  So I think many teams have the cap space and the picks to improve via an offer that improves the team now and in the future.

There's still the fundamental problem of offer sheets though. Either the offer is too high, in which case the team offering it is making a bad decision, or the offer is a fair or even good price in which case the Leafs are probably better off matching it and trading the player themselves.

There's a really good reason we don't see many offer sheets despite teams often being in tricky spots financially. GMs know it's a bad business to be in.

I agree that this is true of almost all offer sheets, but not, I think, in this case.  Here, the leafs have a bunch of high-value contracts (Matthews, Nylander, ... Reilly, Kadri) and a couple of bad, unmoveable (or difficult-to-move: Marleau, Zaitsev) ones.  There are other teams in the league that are in quite a different situation. 

So the leafs may not be able to afford a (for example) $3.5 million Kappy (without displacing a contract they prefer on their team to that one) but another team can afford it (they don’t have a roster full of contracts that they would prefer to that one and they also can’t fill up that roster on the UFA market).  Things are kind of doubly irritating because the leafs contract situation seems temporary due to the Marleau deal — aside from 19-20, the leafs can afford a 3.5 million Kappy and would have a better roster for having him.

So anyway, just calling it a “bad contract” doesn’t seem to describe the situation so well.

Edit: maybe the shorter summary is a multi-year 3.5 kappy contract is “bad” for the leafs next year, but only next year and would be good in the following years. It would also be “good” for many other teams in the league.  The contract is sufficiently “good” that it has more value than a 2nd rounder IMHO for the leafs and plenty of other teams.

It’s very rare that teams really get stuck unable to hold on to  such “mostly good” contracts and are unhappy with the compensation for them.   That’s why offer sheets almost never happen.
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General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Last post by princedpw on Today at 04:21:26 PM »
No way in hell I'd let Kadri go before Johnsson and Kapanen. Kadri's on a fantastic deal is a significantly greater value.

+1

Kadri can prop up a 3rd line all by himself. The other two can’t.
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General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Last post by Bullfrog on Today at 04:20:17 PM »
No way in hell I'd let Kadri go before Johnsson and Kapanen. Kadri's on a fantastic deal is a significantly greater value.
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General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Last post by princedpw on Today at 04:20:16 PM »
Stressing about the offseason roster.

Worries:
How our D is shaping up
Losing Kappi/Johnsson
Having to trade a Nylander to make it all fit
No $ for July 1

Positives
D is going to be fine, we have a lot of meat and potatoes on the farm. Just going to be young and very fast.
Won't lose either Kapi or Mango.
Not trading Nylander, however Brown and Kadri, Zaitzev may go and Gardiner is going.  Bridge deals for both Kapi and Mango (sounds like a new detective show).
A team without Cap problems not doing their job or competitive right now.

Somehow I hope that Dubas can fix the Marleau Conundrum (a hockey relativity problem that Einstein probably couldn't solve).
All of your suggestions are obviously easier said than done.

D won't be fine, 2 rookies into the lineup won't be pretty.
No one wants Zaitzev or Brown at their cap hits.
Mango and Kappi probably don't want bridge deals.
Marleau will be on the cap.
Oh yeah, that Marner contract too.

I wish I could fast forward to October to see how this plays out.

Brown is easily tradeable, I believe. His salary is well below league average, he’s a reasonable PKer, he scored 20 goals a couple of years ago. He’s prime-aged.  We might not get much in return for him, but there are plenty of teams who would take him on.
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I think the key to this series is whoever wins 4 games first.... that and goaltending
... and special teams.
... PK especially, here's a tip, don't have a winger with a torn ACL taking defensive zone faceoffs on the PK against Bergeron.
Yup, still sounds stupid.
Because it was stupid. Babs made a few stupid moves that didn't help the Leafs.
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I think the key to this series is whoever wins 4 games first.... that and goaltending
... and special teams.
... PK especially, here's a tip, don't have a winger with a torn ACL taking defensive zone faceoffs on the PK against Bergeron.
Yup, still sounds stupid.
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General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Last post by cabber24 on Today at 04:07:18 PM »
Stressing about the offseason roster.

Worries:
How our D is shaping up
Losing Kappi/Johnsson
Having to trade a Nylander to make it all fit
No $ for July 1

Positives
D is going to be fine, we have a lot of meat and potatoes on the farm. Just going to be young and very fast.
Won't lose either Kapi or Mango.
Not trading Nylander, however Brown and Kadri, Zaitzev may go and Gardiner is going.  Bridge deals for both Kapi and Mango (sounds like a new detective show).
A team without Cap problems not doing their job or competitive right now.

Somehow I hope that Dubas can fix the Marleau Conundrum (a hockey relativity problem that Einstein probably couldn't solve).
All of your suggestions are obviously easier said than done.

D won't be fine, 2 rookies into the lineup won't be pretty.
No one wants Zaitzev or Brown at their cap hits.
Mango and Kappi probably don't want bridge deals.
Marleau will be on the cap.
Oh yeah, that Marner contract too.

I wish I could fast forward to October to see how this plays out.
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