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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Topic started by: herman on August 04, 2017, 12:32:39 PM

Title: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 04, 2017, 12:32:39 PM
We're rounding the corner on the second last long weekend until hockey ramps back up, so we might as well have a new space to talk about the team going into next season.

First salvo is a bit nerdy:
www.twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/893484019605790723
https://theathletic.com/81552/2017/08/04/by-the-numbers-what-are-the-ideal-forward-lines-for-the-maple-leafs-this-season/

Using Stimson's passing project data and playstyle clustering (https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/04/04/identifying-player-types-with-clustering/), Dom Luszczyszyn throws together a lineup optimized by role distribution. Both the article and playstyle link above show the shot metrics for various combinations.

Dom brings up an interesting thought about Babcock's philosophies on line makeup, ice time distribution, and the performance vs health trade-off.

How would you build the Leafs lines for 2017-18? (Trades are coming...)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 04, 2017, 03:02:46 PM
Mine: not as optimized for xG%, but less weird.

LWCRWxG%
MarleauMatthewsNylander55.0
SoshnikovKadriKapanen55.0
JvRBozakMarner50.9
LeivoKomarov/MooreHyman/Brown44.6
51.4

Keeps most familiar pairings, 4 PKers (2R, 2L), more than ample PPers.

With some TOI weighting on the xG% (Minutes: 19/17/16/8), the average xG% comes out to 52.5%
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 07, 2017, 10:29:46 AM

I still wonder if this means that Rielly remains the "shutdown" guy, which means Hainsey is on that pairing as well. Which would be, something. Shades of overplaying Hunwick perhaps.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on August 07, 2017, 12:56:47 PM
I still wonder if this means that Rielly remains the "shutdown" guy, which means Hainsey is on that pairing as well. Which would be, something. Shades of overplaying Hunwick perhaps.

Given how last year went, I hope he splits the two pairings in that regard.  I think the Gardiner-Zaitsev pairing was good and really helped lighten Reilly's load at the end of the season/playoffs.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on August 07, 2017, 12:58:51 PM

I still wonder if this means that Rielly remains the "shutdown" guy, which means Hainsey is on that pairing as well. Which would be, something. Shades of overplaying Hunwick perhaps.

Babs working with what he has. Seems he wants a difference between Pairing 1 and 2 similar to differences between Lines 1/2 and 3. Makes sense. In the absence of a stud would be wise to specialize.

"... upper-echelon in the league so we needed a partner for him."
(also applies for Matthews' LW ;) )
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 09, 2017, 11:13:41 AM
https://theathletic.com/81946/2017/08/09/mirtle-how-will-the-leafs-cap-situation-look-when-the-kids-all-get-paid/

If the kids get paid, are we in cap trouble?

Yes, if we keep signing Martin-esque contracts. Otherwise, we should be okay, comfortably in the upper tier of cap usage, but not selling off the furniture, provided our prospect pipeline perennially pans out third liners and third pairing defenders and the occasional top-6 winger, top-4 defenseman.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on August 09, 2017, 11:17:41 AM

I still wonder if this means that Rielly remains the "shutdown" guy, which means Hainsey is on that pairing as well. Which would be, something. Shades of overplaying Hunwick perhaps.

Babs working with what he has. Seems he wants a difference between Pairing 1 and 2 similar to differences between Lines 1/2 and 3. Makes sense. In the absence of a stud would be wise to specialize.

"... upper-echelon in the league so we needed a partner for him."
(also applies for Matthews' LW ;) )
The D is still underwhelming... but realistically who's available and what would the price be?

I think our next best D man will be a Swedish guy already in the Leafs system (Lijegren/Rosen/Borgman).

"Upper-echelon" might be a stretch for Reilly? I obviously hope not.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on August 09, 2017, 11:34:59 AM
https://theathletic.com/81946/2017/08/09/mirtle-how-will-the-leafs-cap-situation-look-when-the-kids-all-get-paid/

If the kids get paid, are we in cap trouble?

Yes, if we keep signing Martin-esque contracts. Otherwise, we should be okay, comfortably in the upper tier of cap usage, but not selling off the furniture, provided our prospect pipeline perennially pans out third liners and third pairing defenders and the occasional top-6 winger, top-4 defenseman.

Good point about the pipeline, the 'Hawks being a fine example. I'm thinking term will bring the AAV down a bit for these guys. We're starting to see it with Naz and Morgan's contract. They can get the security they crave, and they already seem mature and looking to be the best, low risk in them flaking out down the road. Also, the prospect of winning multiple Cups as a talented young group and keeping it together is a plus.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on August 10, 2017, 02:45:15 PM
https://theathletic.com/81946/2017/08/09/mirtle-how-will-the-leafs-cap-situation-look-when-the-kids-all-get-paid/

If the kids get paid, are we in cap trouble?

Yes, if we keep signing Martin-esque contracts. Otherwise, we should be okay, comfortably in the upper tier of cap usage, but not selling off the furniture, provided our prospect pipeline perennially pans out third liners and third pairing defenders and the occasional top-6 winger, top-4 defenseman.

Good point about the pipeline, the 'Hawks being a fine example. I'm thinking term will bring the AAV down a bit for these guys. We're starting to see it with Naz and Morgan's contract. They can get the security they crave, and they already seem mature and looking to be the best, low risk in them flaking out down the road. Also, the prospect of winning multiple Cups as a talented young group and keeping it together is a plus.
The stronger $CAD should send the cap up much higher. It's been fairly flat because of a bad CADUSD but we have gone from a low of 0.71 to 0.79 today. I expect the cap to go WAY UP! Thank god McDavid signed when he did, may have saved the NHL a tonne of dough.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 14, 2017, 10:17:48 AM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/08/14/leafs-offseason-notebook-jvr-watch-sophomore-slumps-defence-planning/

Low key hoping Lou files a bunch of trades down the wire in the midst of the GoT season finale two Sundays from now.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on August 14, 2017, 12:13:37 PM
Marchenko was waived today.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on August 14, 2017, 05:39:03 PM
he had a name like a cherry and not Don Cherry!  God I wish it was at least training camp.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 17, 2017, 06:27:03 PM
www.twitter.com/oak_leafs/status/898248906273771521

Can someone verify this?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bill_Berg on August 17, 2017, 07:26:27 PM
www.twitter.com/oak_leafs/status/898248906273771521

Can someone verify this?

Alas, if anywhere here were to, you'd probably be at the top of the list.


So....
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on August 17, 2017, 07:32:14 PM
www.twitter.com/oak_leafs/status/898248906273771521

Can someone verify this?

Hockey-reference verifies this very very specific scenario. Three other players did in in their age 21 season (Kessel, Kucherov, and Gomez).

EDIT: Add 10 minutes of ice time, and you add 2 more players - Gaborik and Laine. Bump it to 1350 total, and your add Pastrnak and Gomez's age 20 season.

Also, at 1300 minutes, Barkov, Eichel, Gagne, and P. Kane all missed the mark by 3 points or less.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Fletch on August 17, 2017, 07:49:40 PM
Looking into it, I found a cool stat. 

William wasn't the first Nylander to get 60+ points in under 1300 minutes.  Dad Michael did it in 2001-02 (although at a much older 29).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Arn on August 18, 2017, 04:02:23 AM
What is the significance of 1300 minutes? Works out around 16.50 per game over an 82 game season
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 18, 2017, 09:29:34 AM
What is the significance of 1300 minutes? Works out around 16.50 per game over an 82 game season

The significance is basically, what parameters make it so that Nylander and Marner show up as the only other representatives on a list with Crosby.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 18, 2017, 09:37:12 AM
Alas, if anywhere here were to, you'd probably be at the top of the list.

Ahaha, maybe if I bothered to learn how to use hockey-reference's research tools. If I had access to the raw database, I could probably pull it out pretty easily with a bit of scripting.

busta, what's the secret?

Edit: Nevermind! Figured it out (https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2017&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=18&age_max=20&pos=S&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=time_on_ice&c1comp=lt&c1val=1300&threshhold=5&order_by=points)! This really highlights how disgustingly good Crosby is though.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 18, 2017, 10:24:14 AM
Edit: Nevermind! Figured it out (https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2017&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=18&age_max=20&pos=S&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=time_on_ice&c1comp=lt&c1val=1300&threshhold=5&order_by=points)! This really highlights how disgustingly good Crosby is though.

Back in the good old days when scoring was bonkers post-lockout. 23 point-per-game players that season! Same as the past 3 seasons combined.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Arn on August 18, 2017, 10:28:57 AM
What is the significance of 1300 minutes? Works out around 16.50 per game over an 82 game season

The significance is basically, what parameters make it so that Nylander and Marner show up as the only other representatives on a list with Crosby.

Haha yeah I kind of figured it to be something like that, it seemed a massively random arbitrary figure. Like, I could see some sense if it were say 20 minutes per game, but even then....
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 18, 2017, 10:34:31 AM
Haha yeah I kind of figured it to be something like that, it seemed a massively random arbitrary figure. Like, I could see some sense if it were say 20 minutes per game, but even then....

It sorta works out to scoring 60+ points while not exactly receiving tradtional 1st line minutes (Crosby is there because he missed a chunk of the season with an injury).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on August 18, 2017, 10:51:55 AM
Alas, if anywhere here were to, you'd probably be at the top of the list.

Ahaha, maybe if I bothered to learn how to use hockey-reference's research tools. If I had access to the raw database, I could probably pull it out pretty easily with a bit of scripting.

busta, what's the secret?

Edit: Nevermind! Figured it out (https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2017&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=18&age_max=20&pos=S&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=time_on_ice&c1comp=lt&c1val=1300&threshhold=5&order_by=points)! This really highlights how disgustingly good Crosby is though.
Cool stat, now can you add PPG to it? McDavid would be up there in PPG, stupid PHI busting his collar bone. Eichel too. Some phenomenal young talent in the league right now. McDavid/Matthews/Laine/Eichel are going to take over.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 18, 2017, 11:10:46 AM
Cool stat, now can you add PPG to it? McDavid would be up there in PPG, stupid PHI busting his collar bone. Eichel too. Some phenomenal young talent in the league right now. McDavid/Matthews/Laine/Eichel are going to take over.

PPG as in powerplay goals, or points per game? Both stats are available in the columns.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on August 18, 2017, 11:47:43 AM
Cool stat, now can you add PPG to it? McDavid would be up there in PPG, stupid PHI busting his collar bone. Eichel too. Some phenomenal young talent in the league right now. McDavid/Matthews/Laine/Eichel are going to take over.

PPG as in powerplay goals, or points per game? Both stats are available in the columns.
Yes, points per game, found it. Just what I thought McDavid/Eichel 2 and 3.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 22, 2017, 02:10:04 PM
www.twitter.com/walsha/status/900028087336706050

Still sporting Leafs gear (because why not?). Looking pretty spry for a broken fibula too. And now that he's not under contract: that glorious beard.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on August 23, 2017, 02:16:55 AM
I'm sure Polka will return eventually. Can always use the depth.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 23, 2017, 09:00:48 AM
Still sporting Leafs gear (because why not?).

Because he was injured while under contract with the Leafs, they are responsible for rehabing him unless he signs elsewhere- hence wearing Leafs kit.

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Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 23, 2017, 03:45:12 PM
No one's freaking out about the Leafs re-signing Roman Po-

www.twitter.com/bobbycappucino/status/900420097382240256
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 23, 2017, 04:24:24 PM
No one's freaking out about the Leafs re-signing Roman Po-

www.twitter.com/bobbycappucino/status/900420097382240256

I'm disappointed that Kyle hasn't liked this one yet.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 24, 2017, 12:04:24 PM
I understand the Leafs hardly had any injuries last season, and that's bound to readjust this season, so maybe that's what they're banking on doing with Leivo.

https://theathletic.com/87892/2017/08/24/by-the-numbers-no-rest-for-weary-leafs-on-2017-18-schedule/

So next season, it appears the Leafs will be getting the short straw:
Quote
In 2017-18, the Leafs will play an average amount of tired games with 26, but will only face a tired opponent 16 times, tied for the lowest amount in the league with Calgary four less than the next closest team. The 10 game difference between playing tired and playing a tired team is the lowest number in the league and is 24 games worse than the two leaders, Colorado and Detroit, both of whom have a rested game difference of 14.

Dom goes into more detail about how that impacts play.

Micah Blake McCurdy elaborates on how rest impacts shot-rates:
www.twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/900734681326518272

As Frank mentioned, we're not likely to see the same injury luck as last season, where the only major injuries were Rielly, Marner getting sick, and Zaitsev's non-concussion; all our other injuries appeared to be whatever was convenient for the roster at the time. Let's see how the depth holds up.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Arn on August 24, 2017, 02:05:36 PM
Maybe it's the many years of Leaf fandom but I'm more or less expecting a bit of a fall back year this year and even anticipating missing the playoffs.

Maybe I just prefer to set my expectations low do that they can only be exceded.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 27, 2017, 07:53:15 AM
No one's freaking out about the Leafs re-signing Roman Po-

www.twitter.com/bobbycappucino/status/900420097382240256

I'm disappointed that Kyle hasn't liked this one yet.

He liked this one!

www.twitter.com/fearthefin/status/900843230752911360
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on August 28, 2017, 04:04:38 PM
There's still time, but at the moment, Nikita Soshnikov has not been cleared to play as he is still experiencing concussion symptoms, according to Dhiren Mahiban of the Canadian Press.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on August 29, 2017, 09:02:48 AM
That is a bit of a concern as this seems like a real long time to be suffering with heavy conditions.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on August 31, 2017, 01:32:16 AM
Leafs pegged to finish second (by a reader/respondents poll/survey):

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on August 31, 2017, 02:02:00 AM
Hmm...

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For the record, Draisatl signed at 8 yrs. $8.5M AAV
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on August 31, 2017, 10:37:11 AM

We're starting to see that snowball effect where players who sense a winner on the rise and want to come here. Those three years drafting high and last year's season have really changed our complexion around the league. It's awesome. And I'm with Bownsie, I haven't been this excited for an upcoming Leaf season since September 1993 after that first run. They started 10-0 and Wendel finished with 46 goals in 63 games. The potential for winning after a long period of desolation (80's/post-lockout) makes it that much sweeter!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on August 31, 2017, 01:07:34 PM
Hmm...

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For the record, Draisatl signed at 8 yrs. $8.5M AAV

I don't like Dellow's stance where the Leafs should be bridging all 3 guys, you're playing with fire there especially if they get to UFA at an early age.  Other teams lock up their young stars to 8 year deals, I think Leafs should do the same with our holy trinity.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Rob on August 31, 2017, 04:28:29 PM
I don't like Dellow's stance where the Leafs should be bridging all 3 guys, you're playing with fire there especially if they get to UFA at an early age.  Other teams lock up their young stars to 8 year deals, I think Leafs should do the same with our holy trinity.

The Leafs just went a very long time proving how difficult it is to find good players.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on August 31, 2017, 06:30:37 PM
I don't like Dellow's stance where the Leafs should be bridging all 3 guys, you're playing with fire there especially if they get to UFA at an early age.  Other teams lock up their young stars to 8 year deals, I think Leafs should do the same with our holy trinity.

I dunno. They're still going to get paid big money over their careers. The difference is really that maybe the Leafs get a little more cap flexibility early on (with a little less later - but, with the way things are going, probably not a significant amount), and they get these guys under contract for 10 or 11 more seasons before they become pending UFAs, instead of 8. Both of those seem pretty appealing in terms of team building.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: KadriFan on August 31, 2017, 07:03:09 PM
I don't like Dellow's stance where the Leafs should be bridging all 3 guys, you're playing with fire there especially if they get to UFA at an early age.  Other teams lock up their young stars to 8 year deals, I think Leafs should do the same with our holy trinity.

I dunno. They're still going to get paid big money over their careers. The difference is really that maybe the Leafs get a little more cap flexibility early on (with a little less later - but, with the way things are going, probably not a significant amount), and they get these guys under contract for 10 or 11 more seasons before they become pending UFAs, instead of 8. Both of those seem pretty appealing in terms of team building.

I don't know. If Brown has already peaked is it a good idea to sign anyone long term lol.  Nylander is already 21 isn't he?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 01, 2017, 09:37:05 AM

It's an interesting concept to kick around but I think ultimately it's out of the team's hands to some extent. If any of the big 3 want 8 year deals after their entry-levels is the small amount of cap flexibility that bridge deals would yield worth going to the mattresses over?

RFA's have very little leverage as a group but individually with the elite ones I think we're seeing that giving them the deals they want is more or less how it'll work.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 01, 2017, 09:39:10 AM
I dunno. They're still going to get paid big money over their careers. The difference is really that maybe the Leafs get a little more cap flexibility early on (with a little less later - but, with the way things are going, probably not a significant amount), and they get these guys under contract for 10 or 11 more seasons before they become pending UFAs, instead of 8. Both of those seem pretty appealing in terms of team building.

A potential problem with that is the idea that post-the next CBA there'll still be the option of 8 year deals.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 01, 2017, 09:53:04 AM
I dunno. They're still going to get paid big money over their careers. The difference is really that maybe the Leafs get a little more cap flexibility early on (with a little less later - but, with the way things are going, probably not a significant amount), and they get these guys under contract for 10 or 11 more seasons before they become pending UFAs, instead of 8. Both of those seem pretty appealing in terms of team building.

A potential problem with that is the idea that post-the next CBA there'll still be the option of 8 year deals.

You think the limit might be reduced? I would expect that to be a major concession for the players to concede.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 01, 2017, 09:55:39 AM
You think the limit might be reduced? I would expect that to be a major concession for the players to concede.

I think the League will get more or less whatever they want just like they have in the last two CBAs.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 01, 2017, 10:15:36 AM
You think the limit might be reduced? I would expect that to be a major concession for the players to concede.

I think the League will get more or less whatever they want just like they have in the last two CBAs.

Last one needed a lock-out though  :(
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 01, 2017, 10:32:07 AM
Last one needed a lock-out though  :(

Last 2 did. But the 2004 lockout lasted a full year whereas in '12 the players folded in January so with any luck the players will get crushed in November next time.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on September 01, 2017, 12:30:33 PM
A potential problem with that is the idea that post-the next CBA there'll still be the option of 8 year deals.

That's true, though I'm not sure how much of a concern that's going to be. They haven't seemed to be a problem so far. I think they'll be more focused on reducing the length of contracts signed in the UFA market than they will be on re-signings. I can see them pushing for a 6/8 split instead of a 7/8, to give teams more leverage to retain talent.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 01, 2017, 01:19:55 PM
Last one needed a lock-out though  :(

Last 2 did. But the 2004 lockout lasted a full year whereas in '12 the players folded in January so with any luck the players will get crushed in November next time.

Something to look forward to!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 01, 2017, 01:26:33 PM
That's true, though I'm not sure how much of a concern that's going to be. They haven't seemed to be a problem so far. I think they'll be more focused on reducing the length of contracts signed in the UFA market than they will be on re-signings. I can see them pushing for a 6/8 split instead of a 7/8, to give teams more leverage to retain talent.

I think you're right in the sense that the current 7/8 split hasn't been a problem in the sense that it hasn't resulted in too many terrible 7 or 8 year deals(although I'm sure the league doesn't want to see any more Nathan Horton/David Clarkson type contracts).

Where I think the League is going to come from is going to be in wanting to significantly lower the risk involved in signing mid tier free agents. There are a lot of terrible 4, 5 and 6 year deals that agents have gotten for players because they can be sold as being under the upper threshold. I think the league is going to want to turn those deals into 2, 3 and 4 year deals and I think the relative upside of being able to lock in the guys you want to sign long term to 7 or 8 year deals isn't that big a deal because teams haven't really shown an inability to sign guys that they want to sign as they're pending UFA's(and stars aren't really showing a desire to test the upper limits of their earning power).

Plus, more UFA's means more raises which means teams stay at the top shorter(satisfying the league's love of parity) and a more active UFA market(fun!). My guess is after the next CBA deals are limited at 4/5 or 5/6.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on September 01, 2017, 01:56:45 PM
That's true, though I'm not sure how much of a concern that's going to be. They haven't seemed to be a problem so far. I think they'll be more focused on reducing the length of contracts signed in the UFA market than they will be on re-signings. I can see them pushing for a 6/8 split instead of a 7/8, to give teams more leverage to retain talent.

I think you're right in the sense that the current 7/8 split hasn't been a problem in the sense that it hasn't resulted in too many terrible 7 or 8 year deals(although I'm sure the league doesn't want to see any more Nathan Horton/David Clarkson type contracts).

Where I think the League is going to come from is going to be in wanting to significantly lower the risk involved in signing mid tier free agents. There are a lot of terrible 4, 5 and 6 year deals that agents have gotten for players because they can be sold as being under the upper threshold. I think the league is going to want to turn those deals into 2, 3 and 4 year deals and I think the relative upside of being able to lock in the guys you want to sign long term to 7 or 8 year deals isn't that big a deal because teams haven't really shown an inability to sign guys that they want to sign as they're pending UFA's(and stars aren't really showing a desire to test the upper limits of their earning power).

Plus, more UFA's means more raises which means teams stay at the top shorter(satisfying the league's love of parity) and a more active UFA market(fun!). My guess is after the next CBA deals are limited at 4/5 or 5/6.

I'm likely misunderstanding something here, but how does putting a contract term limit of 4-6 years going to curb bad 4-6 year deals?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 01, 2017, 02:04:56 PM
I'm likely misunderstanding something here, but how does putting a contract term limit of 4-6 years going to curb bad 4-6 year deals?

It's pretty simple. The NBA used to have 7 year deals. That meant the best players got 7 year deals. Mid-tier players, with less leverage because they weren't as good, got 4 and 5 year deals. Then the NBA limited deals to 4 and 5 years. Now mid tier players, who still have less leverage, get 2 and 3 year deals. If you set an upper limit on something it resets the entire structure, not just the top.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 01, 2017, 02:09:03 PM
I'm generally pro-player when it comes to CBA-related disputes, but I think that shorter term lengths would actually be really good for the league.*

*provided that we get the big 3 all locked up prior to those coming in effect because my heart couldn't bear losing them
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on September 01, 2017, 02:20:49 PM
I'm generally pro-player when it comes to CBA-related disputes, but I think that shorter term lengths would actually be really good for the league.*

*provided that we get the big 3 all locked up prior to those coming in effect because my heart couldn't bear losing them

Ultimately, it would be good for some of the players, too. It will increase their ability to cash in on big seasons - with the obvious caveat that it will also mean that poor seasons will have a larger impact, as well.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 01, 2017, 02:23:51 PM
I'm generally pro-player when it comes to CBA-related disputes, but I think that shorter term lengths would actually be really good for the league.*

*provided that we get the big 3 all locked up prior to those coming in effect because my heart couldn't bear losing them

Well, and beyond that, what we've seen in the NBA is that players are effectively using the shorter terms to consolidate on good teams around the league. Obviously the NHL's hard cap will stem that possibility to some extent but if players are willing to take a little less, then you could see significant migration of talent.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on September 01, 2017, 08:21:29 PM
NHL.com's Dan Rosen and Matt Waymire take a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs for the upcoming 2017-18 NHL season:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-K7woZm5BkU
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 02, 2017, 09:26:20 AM
I'm generally pro-player when it comes to CBA-related disputes, but I think that shorter term lengths would actually be really good for the league.*

*provided that we get the big 3 all locked up prior to those coming in effect because my heart couldn't bear losing them

Well, and beyond that, what we've seen in the NBA is that players are effectively using the shorter terms to consolidate on good teams around the league. Obviously the NHL's hard cap will stem that possibility to some extent but if players are willing to take a little less, then you could see significant migration of talent.

NFL Players can't terminate their own contracts, can they?  The team is able to release them though, right?  I get that it would be a gong show if the players could terminate their own contracts, but that seems fairly one sided.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on September 02, 2017, 09:31:52 AM
I think the only way a player could terminate his contract is to retire otherwise what are contracts for.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on September 02, 2017, 10:13:34 AM
I think the only way a player could terminate his contract is to retire otherwise what are contracts for.

Many contracts in different types of business have termination clauses.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 02, 2017, 10:16:55 AM
NFL Players can't terminate their own contracts, can they?  The team is able to release them though, right?  I get that it would be a gong show if the players could terminate their own contracts, but that seems fairly one sided.

Yes. As lopsided as the NHL CBA is it's still not quite as bad for the players as the NFL's CBA is for theirs.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on September 02, 2017, 10:19:02 AM
I remember the guaranteed contracts thing was a point of discussion last round of CBA negotiations.

I think the owners are going after that next time 'round.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 02, 2017, 10:33:43 AM
I remember the guaranteed contracts thing was a point of discussion last round of CBA negotiations.

I think the owners are going after that next time 'round.

If so, I think that's the one thing that could lead to another cancelled season. I think to get there you're going to have to really break the union the way you did in 04-05.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on September 02, 2017, 11:49:44 AM
I remember the guaranteed contracts thing was a point of discussion last round of CBA negotiations.

I think the owners are going after that next time 'round.

If so, I think that's the one thing that could lead to another cancelled season. I think to get there you're going to have to really break the union the way you did in 04-05.

Yeah, I think that guaranteed contracts is the one thing that all players will agree is a no-go.

I think because a small decrease in gross revenues % really didn't matter much to 75% of the players who would net-lose more by a cancelled season than by conceding some % points, that gets done...but taking away their guarantee would be a pretty scary scenario, and more so for the lower income earners.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 02, 2017, 08:00:39 PM
NFL Players can't terminate their own contracts, can they?  The team is able to release them though, right?  I get that it would be a gong show if the players could terminate their own contracts, but that seems fairly one sided.

Yes. As lopsided as the NHL CBA is it's still not quite as bad for the players as the NFL's CBA is for theirs.

I'm surprised the players haven't tried to got to court to argue that.  Could a player work in to their contract that they could null and void their contract if they choose too?  NFL doesn't have option years, because of the cap, correct?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 03, 2017, 07:56:19 AM
NFL players get guaranteed money, so if a team cuts them, they still get part of the money. Not that that makes it good for the players, but it's something to note.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: pnjunction on September 03, 2017, 10:10:19 AM
I'm surprised the players haven't tried to got to court to argue that.  Could a player work in to their contract that they could null and void their contract if they choose too?  NFL doesn't have option years, because of the cap, correct?

The cap is an issue here too, with the AAV of the contract and front-loading.  The only way it could really work is if there was absolutely no front-loading, and I think the league would still want more in return (ie. if players get an out then teams might want an out...).  It's all give and take, it would seem that NHLPA value 100% guaranteed money and front-loading more than things they could get if they gave those up.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 03, 2017, 10:43:45 AM
I'm surprised the players haven't tried to got to court to argue that.

Argue what? It's a lousy CBA for them but nobody put a gun to their head and made them agree to it.

Could a player work in to their contract that they could null and void their contract if they choose too?  NFL doesn't have option years, because of the cap, correct?

The thing to keep in mind is that NFL contracts can essentially be whatever a team wants them to be. So there's no real reason to have option years. A player option would be meaningless when they can be released at any time and because they can be released at any time every contract is more or less nothing but team option years.

As Bill Berg said each NFL contract is different in that it will have a different % of the total value of the contract guaranteed. The idea that having contracts fully guaranteed is some sort of great win for the NHLPA doesn't really hold up because by all accounts it's the league, not the players that seemed really opposed to option years, performance bonuses and really just any of the flexibility you could have in coming up with different contracts. The inability for the Kings to offer Anze Kopitar, say, a 8 year/80 million dollar deal but with two years being mutual option years or 20 million coming in the form of performance bonuses was at the league's insistence of cost certainty.

All I've ever argued what should happen in sports leagues is that players and teams should have fairly wide latitude to negotiate whatever contract the two sides can agree on. So if the player doesn't have the leverage to negotiate a fully guaranteed contract, I'm ok with that. Conversely, if a player has the leverage to negotiate a 15 year/100 million dollar per year fully guaranteed deal, again, I don't think the league should step in. It should be the responsibility of the teams themselves to, golly, not sign bad contracts of their own volition.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 03, 2017, 09:46:28 PM
Argue what? It's a lousy CBA for them but nobody put a gun to their head and made them agree to it.

I get that it's in their CBA.  I just think that at some point that someone would argue that it's an unfair business practice that the employer holds all the cards.  Sure nobody holds a gun to their head to sign the contract with a team, but nobody held a gun to my head when I went to work for a particular company.  If I didn't like it there I could have left.  However, if a player signs a contract thinking they are getting to a situation that is going to work for them, and it turns out to be absolutely horrible, they have no way of getting out of that situation except to request a release or a trade, but those requests don't need to be fulfilled.
 
All I've ever argued what should happen in sports leagues is that players and teams should have fairly wide latitude to negotiate whatever contract the two sides can agree on. So if the player doesn't have the leverage to negotiate a fully guaranteed contract, I'm ok with that. Conversely, if a player has the leverage to negotiate a 15 year/100 million dollar per year fully guaranteed deal, again, I don't think the league should step in. It should be the responsibility of the teams themselves to, golly, not sign bad contracts of their own volition.

Which would be closer to how things work in other industries.  You build up a reputation, and then based on past performance, you can start to use that past performance in a negotiation for a new contract.  I agree with you, I think the current model in sports really favors the owners.  I think the fact that the really good players make a lot of money sort of covers up the problems that occur with the lower end players and twist the public perception away from just how one sided it is.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on September 04, 2017, 09:12:39 AM
Time to sign Shapalova to LW, he has a wicked shot, hope he can skate
Happy Labour Day to all
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 04, 2017, 10:31:42 AM
I get that it's in their CBA.  I just think that at some point that someone would argue that it's an unfair business practice that the employer holds all the cards.

But my point is that even if the courts in the US were inclined to favour labour over management, and after 40 years of being governed by people who think the stock market is a good measure of the economy they shockingly aren't, I still think it's a valid counter-argument to say that whatever problems exist in the current system should be addressed via CBA negotiations as opposed to a court case. Because even as slanted a system as it is, if the players agree to it it doesn't then seem right to turn around and sue on the basis of something you agreed to.

Because the PA, who remember would be the ones in court actually doing the suing, would either have to answer why they agreed or why they're suing now. Alternately a player could sue individually but if he really thinks it's an unfair system his primary complaint should be against the PA for agreeing to such a crummy CBA.

  Sure nobody holds a gun to their head to sign the contract with a team, but nobody held a gun to my head when I went to work for a particular company.  If I didn't like it there I could have left.  However, if a player signs a contract thinking they are getting to a situation that is going to work for them, and it turns out to be absolutely horrible, they have no way of getting out of that situation except to request a release or a trade, but those requests don't need to be fulfilled.

So I think there's a little bit of a misconception here. NFL players can negotiate fairly open ended contracts. That is to say, there aren't a ton of guidelines on what contracts have to be. Look at the deal just signed by Lions QB Matthew Stafford:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/08/29/the-full-matthew-stafford-contract-details/ (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/08/29/the-full-matthew-stafford-contract-details/)

So it's a six year deal and while it's been reported as a 151 million dollar deal, it's really a 6 year/60 million dollar deal with some injury protection. In reality it probably figures to be a three year/90 million dollar deal before it gets renegotiated.

But the point remains, a good NFL football player can go out and sign a six year deal that guarantees he'll get paid 60 million dollars. It will just be reported as a 6 year/100 milllion dollar deal because it will have 40 million dollars in non-guaranteed money that a player is unlikely(or sometimes even designed not to) ever collect. But still, six years and 60 million. Sure that NFL player can be released at any time but they're still making that 60 million.

I think that's what confuses some hockey fans when they talk about guaranteed and non-guaranteed deals. Some hockey fans think that if the league went to a system of non-guaranteed deals that 0% of money would be guaranteed on NHL contracts and that, for instance, in that world a Clarkson-like situation could be walked away from without having to pay him anything. But even in the NFL there is guaranteed money and teams that walk away from contracts still have cap ramifications for doing so.

(It should be pointed out that the NFL cap is obscenely complicated)

So in the NHL's future a David Clarkson situation might result in him signing a different sort of deal, say, 35 million over 7 years but with only half of it guaranteed and so the Leafs could walk away but they'd still have 2.5 million ish on their cap every year of the deal. The idea of having teams just being able to walk away from any contract at any time and have no cap or financial obligations, which some NHL fans actually argue for, doesn't really exist in sports.

The real problem with the NFL isn't so much that deals "aren't guaranteed" because like I said players can negotiate to guaranteed as much money as their leverage dictates. The issue in the NFL is that they've so artificially restricted player's leverage that just about any player in the league who isn't a star quarterback makes less than just about any half-way decent NBA player, despite the NFL being a much more profitable league for the owners.

So to your point, I don't entirely know what you mean by a player being signed to a deal that turns out horribly and who wants to get out of it. But a player unhappy in his situation can always leave the NFL if they want(and, more and more, young NFL players are leaving the league in their prime). Because the argument some people buy is that the NFL is a single employer effectively and they get to decide, like most employers, where their employees work. If I work at Google, and I'm unhappy working for them in Toronto, I can't just demand they assign me to their London office or even negotiate separately with their London office. I can, however, quit Google and go work for a different company. Same idea applies. A Linebacker unhappy with his NFL situation could leave the NFL and go work for someone else.

Now, I don't agree with the above. I think the idea of the NFL or NHL or NBA as a single employer only flies because they have some anti-trust protection because, you know, the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys are pretty clearly competitors and not local branch offices but until you get real progressive reform in the American Judicial system and labour law, well, unfortunately there will continue to be an exploited proletariat. Viva la Revolution.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 07, 2017, 08:45:47 AM

Sounds like Jack Han has been hired by the Leafs in some sort of analytics role. Han's been a writer for the Athletic all year long and has written a number of Leafs-centric articles in that time. His speciality is using video to break down tactics and strategies. You can find them all here: https://theathletic.com/author/6474/

Prior to the Athletic he kind of rose to fame on twitter for his One Minute Tactics video series where he broke down different types of tactics and strategies quickly. You can find them all by scrolling through this twitter search: https://twitter.com/search?l=&q=%231MinuteTactics%20from%3Aml_han&src=typd

Here's a few old Leafs related ones:

Invalid Tweet IDInvalid Tweet IDInvalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 07, 2017, 08:47:23 AM
Also here's a profile of him written by Bob McKenzie last December: http://www.tsn.ca/han-hopes-to-challenge-conventional-thinking-in-coaching-ranks-1.623971

Quote
Jack Han can tell you the precise moment he decided he wanted to be a professional hockey coach.

A wise guy might suggest that since Han is now all of 27 years old, it shouldn't be too difficult for him to remember that, or anything else about his young life, but we digress.

It was three years ago, during the 2013-14 season, and the McGill University marketing major grad was in his first few months of a one-year contract with the Montreal Canadiens. Han had been hired to provide web content for canadiens.com, to be the team-hired beat reporter who not only covered each game and practice, but also travelled with the Habs on the team charter.

As an aficionado of advanced statistics, or hockey analytics someone who mostly trusts facts over feelings Han was always looking for ways to include tactical and statistical concepts in his game stories.

One day, his boss pulled him aside.

He was very nice about it, Han recalled of the conversation, but he asked me, What makes you qualified to offer an opinion [on how the game should be played]? He was absolutely right. I thought, I'm not a coach but maybe I should be. It lit the fuse.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 07, 2017, 09:13:26 AM
(https://media.tenor.com/images/dfd97d913b2c95000fbd051d06b48ece/tenor.gif)

I wonder if this was the hire that Dimitri Filopovic (I think) hinted at a couple of months ago on The Hockey PDOCast about a friend who was hired by a team for an analytics position but it still hadn't been announced.

Invalid Tweet IDwww.twitter.com/ml_han/status/905572065343885312

I wondered about this.

I also hope he accidentally forgets about his blog and some stuff stays up:
https://jackhanhockey.com/portfolio/toronto-maple-leafs/
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on September 07, 2017, 09:36:17 AM
Happy for him, but I'll miss his work.

I wonder who will fill the void he has left in hockey Twitter.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 07, 2017, 10:54:52 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/9/7/16253088/toronto-maple-leafs-forward-lines-leo-komarov-james-van-riemsdyk-patrick-marleau-dealine-trade

This does not get talked about enough:
Quote
Forward lineups are not a report card. They aren't a marker of status. You can't deal out players from a list of who is best down to who isn't and produce a perfect lineup. That's how you get people suggesting van Riemsdyk should play with Matthews and Nylander.

I'm not sure if it was ever conclusively determined if they'd need three pucks or just two to make that work, but the charts contained in that very story show you that van Riemsdyk is one of the highest volume shooters on the Leafs. Hooking him up with the pass-first Bozak and the pass-often Marner makes more sense than having him fight Auston "no, I'll score that myself, thanks" Matthews and William "I love having the puck" Nylander for some time with the rubber.

And that's exactly why Marleau might not work out with Matthews. He has a very similar offensive style to van Riemsdyk, and he shoots from very tight to the net like Matthews does. He does not shoot at quite the high rate of JvR, but it's close. Marleau has also spent a lot of years playing with the grand champion of pass-first centres in Joe Thornton.

Marleau - Matthews - Marner
Leivo - Kadri - Kapanen
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
Rychel - Moore - Hyman
Soshnikov
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 07, 2017, 12:48:51 PM

I think it's generally true that, when constructing lines, you want to care about fit and matching styles of play as much as it's just a grouping of talent. That said, I also think talented hockey players can adjust their style of play depending on who they're playing with.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 07, 2017, 02:04:46 PM
www.twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/905852908994011137
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: riff raff on September 07, 2017, 02:23:26 PM
www.twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/905852908994011137

"Return from Robidas Island"

(Does it now become Lupul Island?)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: princedpw on September 07, 2017, 09:45:52 PM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/9/7/16253088/toronto-maple-leafs-forward-lines-leo-komarov-james-van-riemsdyk-patrick-marleau-dealine-trade

This does not get talked about enough:
Quote
Forward lineups are not a report card. They aren't a marker of status. You can't deal out players from a list of who is best down to who isn't and produce a perfect lineup. That's how you get people suggesting van Riemsdyk should play with Matthews and Nylander.

I'm not sure if it was ever conclusively determined if they'd need three pucks or just two to make that work, but the charts contained in that very story show you that van Riemsdyk is one of the highest volume shooters on the Leafs. Hooking him up with the pass-first Bozak and the pass-often Marner makes more sense than having him fight Auston "no, I'll score that myself, thanks" Matthews and William "I love having the puck" Nylander for some time with the rubber.

And that's exactly why Marleau might not work out with Matthews. He has a very similar offensive style to van Riemsdyk, and he shoots from very tight to the net like Matthews does. He does not shoot at quite the high rate of JvR, but it's close. Marleau has also spent a lot of years playing with the grand champion of pass-first centres in Joe Thornton.

Marleau - Matthews - Marner
Leivo - Kadri - Kapanen
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
Rychel - Moore - Hyman
Soshnikov

The never-going-to-happen, all-fun-all-the-time lineup:

Leivo - Matthews - Nylander
Komorov - Kadri - Kapanen
JVR - Bozak - Marner
Hyman - Marleau - Brown
Moore

Gardiner - Zaitsev
Reilly - Carrick
Hainsey - Liljegren

I'd like to see that 4th line lining up against the fourth liners of any other team.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 07, 2017, 11:03:53 PM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/9/7/16253088/toronto-maple-leafs-forward-lines-leo-komarov-james-van-riemsdyk-patrick-marleau-dealine-trade

This does not get talked about enough:
Quote
Forward lineups are not a report card. They aren't a marker of status. You can't deal out players from a list of who is best down to who isn't and produce a perfect lineup. That's how you get people suggesting van Riemsdyk should play with Matthews and Nylander.

I'm not sure if it was ever conclusively determined if they'd need three pucks or just two to make that work, but the charts contained in that very story show you that van Riemsdyk is one of the highest volume shooters on the Leafs. Hooking him up with the pass-first Bozak and the pass-often Marner makes more sense than having him fight Auston "no, I'll score that myself, thanks" Matthews and William "I love having the puck" Nylander for some time with the rubber.

And that's exactly why Marleau might not work out with Matthews. He has a very similar offensive style to van Riemsdyk, and he shoots from very tight to the net like Matthews does. He does not shoot at quite the high rate of JvR, but it's close. Marleau has also spent a lot of years playing with the grand champion of pass-first centres in Joe Thornton.

Marleau - Matthews - Marner
Leivo - Kadri - Kapanen
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
Rychel - Moore - Hyman
Soshnikov

The never-going-to-happen, all-fun-all-the-time lineup:

Leivo - Matthews - Nylander
Komorov - Kadri - Kapanen
JVR - Bozak - Marner
Hyman - Marleau - Brown
Moore

Gardiner - Zaitsev
Reilly - Carrick
Hainsey - Liljegren

I'd like to see that 4th line lining up against the fourth liners of any other team.

Done with Marleau already eh?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on September 08, 2017, 08:34:37 AM
The never-going-to-happen, all-fun-all-the-time lineup:

Leivo - Matthews - Nylander
Komorov - Kadri - Kapanen
JVR - Bozak - Marner
Hyman - Marleau - Brown
Moore

Gardiner - Zaitsev
Reilly - Carrick
Hainsey - Liljegren

I'd like to see that 4th line lining up against the fourth liners of any other team.

I'd make a couple swaps:. Brown and Kapanen, Hyman and Leivo

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Komorov - Kadri - Brown
JVR - Bozak - Marner
Leivo - Marleau - Kapanen
Moore

I know that means another year of Hyman with Matthews, but try to line match that lineup!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 08, 2017, 08:55:30 AM
For what it's worth, Bob McKenzie said the other day that (in his personal opinion) he thinks Marleau will start with Kadri, and the other two lines will remain intact from last season.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 08, 2017, 08:59:34 AM
For what it's worth, Bob McKenzie said the other day that (in his personal opinion) he thinks Marleau will start with Kadri, and the other two lines will remain intact from last season.

I just want to see our UFAs traded.

But I wouldn't be against this to start the season:

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Brown
JvR - Bozak - Marner
Komarov - Moore - Kapanen
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Arn on September 08, 2017, 09:32:32 AM
Is there really any point in speculating on lines and not including Martin? I mean it's nice to dream and all....
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 08, 2017, 09:37:48 AM
Is there really any point in speculating on lines and not including Martin? I mean it's nice to dream and all....

Have you not seen me beat this dead horse? I only care insofar as he is clogging up opportunity for someone I feel could be a better contributor to the scoresheet.

Anyway, Martin might be better this year as long as he just focuses on forechecking fast to get the puck to the front of the net.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Arn on September 08, 2017, 10:44:53 AM
He's a real good pro though.

Intangibles.

Obviously.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 08, 2017, 12:32:22 PM
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/shilton-matthews-looked-like-his-old-self-on-the-ice~1204562

Did you spot Connor Carrick?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 08, 2017, 02:12:11 PM
https://theleafsnation.com/2017/09/08/torontos-experience-with-daniel-winnik-should-inspire-rebuilding-teams/

Quote
Developmentally, Winniks value is a little harder to figure because we cant go back and see what would have happened to Kozun and Ashton and Nylander and Brown if theyd been given more of an opportunity. With the value of hindsight, though, it looks like having a veteran ahead of those players didnt hurt the real prospects and didnt derail anybody who would have ended up mattering to the organization.

Okay fine, roll with Martin. If he could actually PK, I would probably have a much more favourable view here, but we've got some very interesting PK ponies already.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 08, 2017, 02:18:59 PM
https://theleafsnation.com/2017/09/08/torontos-experience-with-daniel-winnik-should-inspire-rebuilding-teams/

Quote
Developmentally, Winniks value is a little harder to figure because we cant go back and see what would have happened to Kozun and Ashton and Nylander and Brown if theyd been given more of an opportunity. With the value of hindsight, though, it looks like having a veteran ahead of those players didnt hurt the real prospects and didnt derail anybody who would have ended up mattering to the organization.

Okay fine, roll with Martin. If he could actually PK, I would probably have a much more favourable view here, but we've got some very interesting PK ponies already.

I don't get this:

Quote
Theres a common misconception that rebuilding teams should clear the decks for their prospects, giving them plenty of playing time and avoiding bringing in mid-tier veterans to compete with them for minutes. Its a problematic approach from a development perspective, as internal competition can help players develop and over-ripening prospects is often preferable to baptizing them by fire anyway.

Since when is that true? As far as I know the opposite is true. A rebuilding team should be limited to prospects and mid-tier veterans you can peel off and trade for picks. The players of questionable purpose on a rebuilding team are guys like JVR or Bozak who make the team better, hurting their draft chances, but don't figure to be around long term.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 08, 2017, 02:28:17 PM
I don't get this:

Quote
Theres a common misconception that rebuilding teams should clear the decks for their prospects, giving them plenty of playing time and avoiding bringing in mid-tier veterans to compete with them for minutes. Its a problematic approach from a development perspective, as internal competition can help players develop and over-ripening prospects is often preferable to baptizing them by fire anyway.

Since when is that true? As far as I know the opposite is true. A rebuilding team should be limited to prospects and mid-tier veterans you can peel off and trade for picks. The players of questionable purpose on a rebuilding team are guys like JVR or Bozak who make the team better, hurting their draft chances, but don't figure to be around long term.

I get why you don't get it.

I believe his stated misconception is from living in Edmonton, where I'm guessing that is exactly what they did. To be honest, the notion of filling the roster gaps with cheap, sellable parts was a bit foreign to my experience prior to the Leaf's teardown.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 08, 2017, 02:29:08 PM
https://theleafsnation.com/2017/09/08/torontos-experience-with-daniel-winnik-should-inspire-rebuilding-teams/

Quote
Developmentally, Winniks value is a little harder to figure because we cant go back and see what would have happened to Kozun and Ashton and Nylander and Brown if theyd been given more of an opportunity. With the value of hindsight, though, it looks like having a veteran ahead of those players didnt hurt the real prospects and didnt derail anybody who would have ended up mattering to the organization.

Okay fine, roll with Martin. If he could actually PK, I would probably have a much more favourable view here, but we've got some very interesting PK ponies already.

I don't get this:

Quote
Theres a common misconception that rebuilding teams should clear the decks for their prospects, giving them plenty of playing time and avoiding bringing in mid-tier veterans to compete with them for minutes. Its a problematic approach from a development perspective, as internal competition can help players develop and over-ripening prospects is often preferable to baptizing them by fire anyway.

Since when is that true? As far as I know the opposite is true. A rebuilding team should be limited to prospects and mid-tier veterans you can peel off and trade for picks. The players of questionable purpose on a rebuilding team are guys like JVR or Bozak who make the team better, hurting their draft chances, but don't figure to be around long term.

Well, on JvR I agree.  He may have hurt our chances at getting Matthews if he wasn't injured for alot of 2015-2016.  Then again, I bet they may have traded him at the deadline that year if he was healthy. 

Bozak, more than a mid-tier vet?  I don't think he moves the needle much if you are a lottery-bound team. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 08, 2017, 02:41:06 PM
I believe his stated misconception is from living in Edmonton, where I'm guessing that is exactly what they did. To be honest, the notion of filling the roster gaps with cheap, sellable parts was a bit foreign to my experience prior to the Leaf's teardown.

In Edmonton they didn't throw young players into the lineup in favour of cheap fill-ins? It seems like they were pretty eager to give younger a guys a chance.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 08, 2017, 02:45:37 PM
I believe his stated misconception is from living in Edmonton, where I'm guessing that is exactly what they did. To be honest, the notion of filling the roster gaps with cheap, sellable parts was a bit foreign to my experience prior to the Leaf's teardown.

In Edmonton they didn't throw young players into the lineup in favour of cheap fill-ins? It seems like they were pretty eager to give younger a guys a chance.

Maybe I phrased it wrong or I'm misreading what you're saying. Edmonton's rebuild was LOOK AT ALL OUR FIRST ROUNDERS and then proceeded to play them out of their depth with limited to no insulation (a la the misconception). Roster spots were gifted to their prospects.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 08, 2017, 02:55:08 PM
Maybe I phrased it wrong or I'm misreading what you're saying. Edmonton's rebuild was LOOK AT ALL OUR FIRST ROUNDERS and then proceeded to play them out of their depth with limited to no insulation (a la the misconception). Roster spots were gifted to their prospects.

So he thinks it's a common misconception that people think teams should probably do what Edmonton did?

And is that even true in Edmonton? They had Horcoff and Hemsky, they brought back Ryan Smyth, they had a bunch of mediocre veterans. Sure they were bad but there's nothing particularly exceptional about the ages of their players for a rebuilding team.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 08, 2017, 03:03:43 PM
Maybe I phrased it wrong or I'm misreading what you're saying. Edmonton's rebuild was LOOK AT ALL OUR FIRST ROUNDERS and then proceeded to play them out of their depth with limited to no insulation (a la the misconception). Roster spots were gifted to their prospects.

So he thinks it's a common misconception that people think teams should probably do what Edmonton did?

And is that even true in Edmonton? They had Horcoff and Hemsky, they brought back Ryan Smyth, they had a bunch of mediocre veterans. Sure they were bad but there's nothing particularly exceptional about the ages of their players for a rebuilding team.

That's my guess. I didn't bother to look up their rosters though. All I remember is that their 1OAs were touted as franchise savers (even after the first two didn't?). Maybe it's a Nation Network comments thing. There's a really interesting and jarring disconnect between the article authors and the commentors on TLN, like two distinct communities in the same space.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 08, 2017, 03:10:40 PM
That's my guess. I didn't bother to look up their rosters though. All I remember is that their 1OAs were touted as franchise savers (even after the first two didn't?). Maybe it's a Nation Network comments thing. There's a really interesting and jarring disconnect between the article authors and the commentors on TLN, like two distinct communities in the same space.

You are going to admirable lengths to defend a flawed and lazy premise.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 08, 2017, 03:12:29 PM
That's my guess. I didn't bother to look up their rosters though. All I remember is that their 1OAs were touted as franchise savers (even after the first two didn't?). Maybe it's a Nation Network comments thing. There's a really interesting and jarring disconnect between the article authors and the commentors on TLN, like two distinct communities in the same space.

You are going to admirable lengths to defend a flawed and lazy premise.

It's a good measure of how my workday is progressing.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 08, 2017, 03:12:38 PM
Bozak, more than a mid-tier vet?  I don't think he moves the needle much if you are a lottery-bound team.

Yeah, I mean only in the sense that I think he's a pretty good #2 C option for a bad team and he doesn't really have a long term future here. It's not leaps and bounds. He's not, you know, Parenteau or someone.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on September 08, 2017, 06:19:33 PM
The lack of GDT for the game in 40 minutes is highly offensive.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on September 08, 2017, 07:34:34 PM
https://www.nhl.com/video/live-toronto-vs-montreal/t-281013894/c-40472703
All the way this year lads. It begins tonite.
Title: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on September 08, 2017, 08:35:18 PM
Dzierkals ties it at one.

Kaskisuo and Scott both made highlight reel saves. 

Grundstrom from Bracco on the PP to make it 2-1.

Nielsen has been a red flag here for me, it's one game but he hasn't imposed himself on the game through two periods, you'd expect him to standout a bit. He did have one good hit.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on September 08, 2017, 09:41:33 PM
Finishes 5-2 Montreal, Timoth with the clutch -4 debut, two of which he was directly responsible for.

I wouldn't panic though, he was playing with chopped livers slower cousins for most of it and showed some good looks offensively. He was paired with Rasanen who was gone with an injury within a few minutes. Middleton then got hurt in a fight too, which didn't help matters.

I suspect he is the type who looks better playing with better players, probably why he has looked good internationally, including this summers international showcase.

Basically, hockey twitter/Toronto media is likely to make this into more than it really was, resist that urge until we see more.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 09, 2017, 07:29:08 AM
Finishes 5-2 Montreal, Timoth with the clutch -4 debut, two of which he was directly responsible for.

I wouldn't panic though, he was playing with chopped livers slower cousins for most of it and showed some good looks offensively. He was paired with Rasanen who was gone with an injury within a few minutes. Middleton then got hurt in a fight too, which didn't help matters.

I suspect he is the type who looks better playing with better players, probably why he has looked good internationally, including this summers international showcase.

Basically, hockey twitter/Toronto media is likely to make this into more than it really was, resist that urge until we see more.

I didn't see the 4th or 5th goal but Scott should of stopped the 2nd and 3rd.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on September 09, 2017, 09:37:21 AM
Finishes 5-2 Montreal, Timoth with the clutch -4 debut, two of which he was directly responsible for.

I wouldn't panic though, he was playing with chopped livers slower cousins for most of it and showed some good looks offensively. He was paired with Rasanen who was gone with an injury within a few minutes. Middleton then got hurt in a fight too, which didn't help matters.

I suspect he is the type who looks better playing with better players, probably why he has looked good internationally, including this summers international showcase.

Basically, hockey twitter/Toronto media is likely to make this into more than it really was, resist that urge until we see more.

Yeah, I agree with most of what you're saying...Liljegren didn't look comfortable yet, and maybe it's due to the smaller ice.  Couple of real boners though.

I actually wasn't impressed with any of the defensemen, save maybe Smart. 

On the bright side, Pospisil looked a lot better than I expected, and Grundstrom looked aggressive.'

Marchment is looking for a Marlies job, and he was hustling out there, made some plays.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on September 09, 2017, 04:27:10 PM
There's a game tonight, right?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Leafaholic99 on September 09, 2017, 04:44:09 PM
There's a game tonight, right?

Not for the Leafs, it's Ottawa and Montreal tonight.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 10, 2017, 04:12:56 PM
I guess we're doing it here!

https://www.nhl.com/video/live-maple-leafs-vs-senators/t-281013894/c-40472703

Gordeev and Dzierkals connect for the first goal of the game at 1:30.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 10, 2017, 04:13:56 PM
McGregor pops in the scramble rebound and jump ahead 2-0.
Dermott with the keep-in at the line and shot on goal to cause the scramble.

Senators wiped out the Habs last night, so this is... rock paper scissors?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 10, 2017, 04:15:29 PM
www.twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/906965125227323392
www.twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/906965707245703168
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 10, 2017, 04:18:34 PM
Good to see Rasanen has recovered from Friday, and Dermott from the flu.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 10, 2017, 04:23:49 PM
Moore slams home a bump pass on the PP from Marchment at the post and Liljegren with the dangles down the half wall.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on September 10, 2017, 04:30:59 PM
Babs and his team looking on from the booth.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 10, 2017, 04:32:17 PM
Not sure what level of lineup the sens are running, but the baby Leafs are winning races to every puck, popping short passes into open ice for linemates coming in with speed, and playing with really good structure in transition and forcing play into the OZ.

Gordeev, while not fast, is quite smooth and patient.
Liljegren is as advertised, but better defensively than I've heard.
Timashov is pretty wily, and with Grundstrom on the opposite wing, they are carving into the zone with regularity.
Ian Scott between the pipes for the first half, and looks more steady than Bibeau.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 10, 2017, 04:33:14 PM
Moore - Dupuy - Bracco is such a Dubas line.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on September 10, 2017, 04:40:23 PM
LeafsTV outro music is totally Hole - Celbrity Skin with a minor tweak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3dWBLoU--E
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 10, 2017, 04:40:51 PM
A little late, but it looks like Korostelev (2015 7th rd) is in for Coskey? I hope he gets an AHL deal.

I'm liking Moore's gumption and smarts, but his strength (lack thereof) is holding him back from making the plays he wants to.

Speaking of strength, earlier in the period, Dermott upended his (larger) man with a hip check and lift.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on September 10, 2017, 04:45:43 PM
Invalid Tweet IDFakey McFakingtons
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 10, 2017, 04:47:40 PM
And that's as much of the game that I can watch today. If we lose, sorry.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on September 10, 2017, 04:49:57 PM
And that's as much of the game that I can watch today. If we lose, sorry.

Wait, don't go Herman. You're the only one here.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on September 10, 2017, 06:44:14 PM
And that's as much of the game that I can watch today. If we lose, sorry.

I hope you're happy with yourself!  >:(
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on September 10, 2017, 07:08:58 PM
I thought Timashov was the best Leaf on the ice, by far.   Also was impressed with Dzierkals for the first period and then he sort of went phantom.  Gordeev is a pretty steady player  and I was impressed with him.
Liljegren was very impressive as well.  Lots of things to look forward to.   
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on September 10, 2017, 07:12:18 PM
I am not sure about Bracco as yet, he was trying hard today, no doubt, I think we will see what happens after a season with the Marlies.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 10, 2017, 07:49:55 PM
And that's as much of the game that I can watch today. If we lose, sorry.

I hope you're happy with yourself!  >:(

I was pretty happy watching that first period.
Title: Lou Interview
Post by: disco on September 10, 2017, 09:20:19 PM
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: RedLeaf on September 10, 2017, 09:29:56 PM
I now understand the reason for the hype surrounding Liligren. He needs some fine tuning to be sure, but I think he'll be another good offensive minded D-man for the Leafs next season. I saw some flashes of potential with Timoshov, and a few other forwards , but the organization still lacks a solid defensive defenseman.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 10, 2017, 10:11:38 PM
And that's as much of the game that I can watch today. If we lose, sorry.

I hope you're happy with yourself!  >:(

Sounds like it was less about Herman leaving, and more about Ian Scott leaving.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bender on September 11, 2017, 03:03:29 AM
I now understand the reason for the hype surrounding Liligren. He needs some fine tuning to be sure, but I think he'll be another good offensive minded D-man for the Leafs next season. I saw some flashes of potential with Timoshov, and a few other forwards , but the organization still lacks a solid defensive defenseman.
They come cheap and are easy to fill. D like Lil are much harder to come by.

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: RedLeaf on September 11, 2017, 08:09:12 AM
I now understand the reason for the hype surrounding Liligren. He needs some fine tuning to be sure, but I think he'll be another good offensive minded D-man for the Leafs next season. I saw some flashes of potential with Timoshov, and a few other forwards , but the organization still lacks a solid defensive defenseman.
They come cheap and are easy to fill. D like Lil are much harder to come by.

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

If young, fast and talented, stay-at-home D-men were easy to find, we would have 1 or even 2 by now.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 11, 2017, 08:22:00 AM
Travis Dermott seems one determined fellow...


https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2017/09/10/travis-dermott-not-a-shy-rookie-as-he-chases-spot-on-leafs-blue-line.html
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 11, 2017, 08:48:51 AM
Smooth move, nice handover...

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 11, 2017, 08:49:36 AM

MLHS with the transcript as always: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/09/10/lou-lamoriello-bob-mckenzie-interview/

Although in typical Lou fashion, he basically said nothing of substance in that 30 minute interview.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 11, 2017, 09:02:30 AM
MLHS with the transcript as always: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/09/10/lou-lamoriello-bob-mckenzie-interview/

Although in typical Lou fashion, he basically said nothing of substance in that 30 minute interview.

My favourite part was the Cheshire Cat grin Lou had when Bob asked about Nylander's contract discussions.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 11, 2017, 09:08:30 AM
If young, fast and talented, stay-at-home D-men were easy to find, we would have 1 or even 2 by now.

I like fast and talented defensemen too! The only thing is if they are fast and talented, I kind of don't want them just to stay at home. I think I'm looking for someone who can skate, see the ice well, and has very strong defensive instincts in terms of positioning (body, stick, gap control) that can neutralize zone entries. Other than not being very tall, Dermott is quite possibly that very player.

http://www.tsn.ca/dermott-s-stock-rising-ahead-of-leafs-training-camp-1.852625
Quote
He really learned to use the skill sets that he has, said head coach Sheldon Keefe. He kills a lot of plays early and hes very evasive. As he learned how to use his body and learned to use the limited time and space that you have at the pro level, he learned to make plays through that.

The crispness of Dermotts overall game stands out among his peers; now Dermott needs to elevate it even further to reach the next level.

Some of his stick positioning and defending, those kinds of things when he hasnt closed the space is one area, Keefe said of Dermotts next steps. But that doesnt present itself very often because he is tight, he closes the gap real quick, so thats a real positive for him. Hes got a bright future ahead, hes going to continue to work and I know hes excited to get going in camp.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 11, 2017, 09:11:17 AM
MLHS with the transcript as always: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/09/10/lou-lamoriello-bob-mckenzie-interview/

Although in typical Lou fashion, he basically said nothing of substance in that 30 minute interview.

My favourite part was the Cheshire Cat grin Lou had when Bob asked about Nylander's contract discussions.

I was half expecting the lights to mysteriously go out at that point and to have McKenzie replaced by Dreger when they came back on.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 11, 2017, 09:22:38 AM
MLHS with the transcript as always: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/09/10/lou-lamoriello-bob-mckenzie-interview/

Although in typical Lou fashion, he basically said nothing of substance in that 30 minute interview.

My favourite part was the Cheshire Cat grin Lou had when Bob asked about Nylander's contract discussions.

I was half expecting the lights to mysteriously go out at that point and to have McKenzie replaced by Dreger when they came back on.

How are your video editing skills?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 11, 2017, 09:28:18 AM
Quote
Did the successes of last years team surprise you a little bit?

Lamoriello: Oh, I think so. I think that the growth and the way the players adapted within the framework of the system I think in the previous year what we went through was Mike bringing in an up-tempo system and we had to really educate the veterans who were here before to play that and find out how many could. The teaching was really into the veterans. The people who really survived that were perfect at it so Mike could focus on the younger players last year. The veterans really helped the younger players by doing it right all the time. Also, the receptiveness of the young players we didnt know how quickly they would come. We didnt know that they would adjust that quickly and have the success they have. I would have to say [it surprised me]. We werent different from anybody else. We were a little ahead of ourselves.

This might be the most revealing thing Lou actually said that he hadn't touched on before.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on September 11, 2017, 09:35:16 AM
They had to be De-Randied.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bender on September 11, 2017, 09:54:58 AM
I now understand the reason for the hype surrounding Liligren. He needs some fine tuning to be sure, but I think he'll be another good offensive minded D-man for the Leafs next season. I saw some flashes of potential with Timoshov, and a few other forwards , but the organization still lacks a solid defensive defenseman.
They come cheap and are easy to fill. D like Lil are much harder to come by.

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

If young, fast and talented, stay-at-home D-men were easy to find, we would have 1 or even 2 by now.
Young, fast and talented D are less one dimensional than a stay at home D.

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: RedLeaf on September 11, 2017, 10:15:13 AM
If young, fast and talented, stay-at-home D-men were easy to find, we would have 1 or even 2 by now.

I like fast and talented defensemen too! The only thing is if they are fast and talented, I kind of don't want them just to stay at home. I think I'm looking for someone who can skate, see the ice well, and has very strong defensive instincts in terms of positioning (body, stick, gap control) that can neutralize zone entries. Other than not being very tall, Dermott is quite possibly that very player.

http://www.tsn.ca/dermott-s-stock-rising-ahead-of-leafs-training-camp-1.852625
Quote
He really learned to use the skill sets that he has, said head coach Sheldon Keefe. He kills a lot of plays early and hes very evasive. As he learned how to use his body and learned to use the limited time and space that you have at the pro level, he learned to make plays through that.

The crispness of Dermotts overall game stands out among his peers; now Dermott needs to elevate it even further to reach the next level.

Some of his stick positioning and defending, those kinds of things when he hasnt closed the space is one area, Keefe said of Dermotts next steps. But that doesnt present itself very often because he is tight, he closes the gap real quick, so thats a real positive for him. Hes got a bright future ahead, hes going to continue to work and I know hes excited to get going in camp.
I agree. When I say stay-at-home, I'm really saying their talent lies in the ability to keep pucks out of their zone more than contributing to the offense. Defence first.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on September 11, 2017, 11:04:09 AM
Please no Hyman on Matthews line! I just wanted to throw this out there. I don't get it and have yet to be convinced by anything I have seen or read. You can't play with Matthews and only score 10 goals! Surely our forward group is deep enough to have someone else on Matthews line besides Hyman.

I don't get it.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 11, 2017, 01:40:27 PM
Pronman is releasing a Top 100 Under 25 (https://theathletic.com/98928/2017/09/11/the-top-100-nhlers-under-25-years-old-part-1-100-to-50/) of NHL players:
25+ GP and < 25 years old by Sept 15, 2017

72. Connor Brown, RW, Toronto

The top half drop tomorrow, but it'll probably be forgotten amidst the iPhone news.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 11, 2017, 03:51:40 PM
Pronman is releasing a Top 100 Under 25 (https://theathletic.com/98928/2017/09/11/the-top-100-nhlers-under-25-years-old-part-1-100-to-50/) of NHL players:
25+ GP and < 25 years old by Sept 15, 2017

72. Connor Brown, RW, Toronto

The top half drop tomorrow, but it'll probably be forgotten amidst the iPhone news.

Yeah, I saw that today.  Didn't realize Pronman had that high of an opinion on Brown.  He's ahead of a number of players I wouldn't expect like Sam Bennett, Kevin Fiala, Timo Meier, Pavel Zacha... but I haven't followed their progression much since they were drafted.  Anyways, I like Brown alot and if Pronman is right with his ranking, Brown will continue to improve and become quite important to this team in the future- hopefully at a low cost long term.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on September 11, 2017, 03:57:26 PM
Yeah, I saw that today.  Didn't realize Pronman had that high of an opinion on Brown.  He's ahead of a number of players I wouldn't expect like Sam Bennett, Kevin Fiala, Timo Meier, Pavel Zacha... but I haven't followed their progression much since they were drafted.  Anyways, I like Brown alot and if Pronman is right with his ranking, Brown will continue to improve and become quite important to this team in the future- hopefully at a low cost long term.

The guys you list there have disappointed relative to their draft position so far - Brown has been a better NHLer than all but Bennett, and an argument can be made for Brown there, too.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 11, 2017, 04:06:27 PM
Yeah, I saw that today.  Didn't realize Pronman had that high of an opinion on Brown.  He's ahead of a number of players I wouldn't expect like Sam Bennett, Kevin Fiala, Timo Meier, Pavel Zacha... but I haven't followed their progression much since they were drafted.  Anyways, I like Brown alot and if Pronman is right with his ranking, Brown will continue to improve and become quite important to this team in the future- hopefully at a low cost long term.

The guys you list there have disappointed relative to their draft position so far - Brown has been a better NHLer than all but Bennett, and an argument can be made for Brown there, too.

Yeah, but Brown is also 2 years older than all of them (3 in Zacha's case).  Pronman's guidelines are

Quote
based on talent assessment of who I believe will have the best NHL careers. This ranking is not based on how well a player will perform in the 2017-18 season.

Despite the disappointment compared to their draft positions, I still surprised Pronman thinks Brown will have a better career than most of those guys.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on September 11, 2017, 04:55:52 PM
Despite the disappointment compared to their draft positions, I still surprised Pronman thinks Brown will have a better career than most of those guys.

Maybe he hasn't liked what he's seen in terms their ability to adapt the level of play in the NHL, and he's skeptical about their ability to improve on that?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bender on September 12, 2017, 03:01:18 AM
With Bennett you have to wonder if he's a bit of a first round bust. They did seem to rush him for some reason though.

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 12, 2017, 10:01:21 AM

He specifically mentions (Leaf standouts): Martin Dzierkals (forward), Fedor Gordeev & Travis Dermott (defence).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on September 12, 2017, 11:57:24 AM
Please no Hyman on Matthews line! I just wanted to throw this out there. I don't get it and have yet to be convinced by anything I have seen or read. You can't play with Matthews and only score 10 goals! Surely our forward group is deep enough to have someone else on Matthews line besides Hyman.

I don't get it.

I'm sure Babs will provide Patty every opportunity to bury Auston's passes that weren't converted last year. I'm predicting a slight drop in Matthews' goals this year with a significant increase in assists.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 12, 2017, 12:30:42 PM
Please no Hyman on Matthews line! I just wanted to throw this out there. I don't get it and have yet to be convinced by anything I have seen or read. You can't play with Matthews and only score 10 goals! Surely our forward group is deep enough to have someone else on Matthews line besides Hyman.

I don't get it.

I'm sure Babs will provide Patty every opportunity to bury Auston's passes that weren't converted last year. I'm predicting a slight drop in Matthews' goals this year with a significant increase in assists.

Even on Matthews' line, I don't think Hyman is the most difficult to understand problem with the lineup, if he can even be called a problem.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 12, 2017, 12:41:48 PM
Pronman is releasing a Top 100 Under 25 (https://theathletic.com/98928/2017/09/11/the-top-100-nhlers-under-25-years-old-part-1-100-to-50/) of NHL players:
25+ GP and < 25 years old by Sept 15, 2017

72. Connor Brown, RW, Toronto

The top half drop tomorrow, but it'll probably be forgotten amidst the iPhone news.

Just ahead of the iPhone event!

https://theathletic.com/97243/2017/09/12/the-top-100-nhlers-under-25-years-old-part-2/

46. Morgan Rielly
21. William Nylander
9. Mitch Marner
2. Auston Matthews

Quote
As an aside, Ive maintained for the last year and a half that between Laine and Matthews its a coin flip, and that remains true to this day. After leaning to Laine for most of the last year or so, I leaned a little to Matthews now after continuing to be wowed by his skill level and shot generation, more so than what I thought of his skill as a prospect. Matthews is nearly a year older and has one more season of experience so Laine's development track could surpass Matthews at the pace hes going. However, I see where both players are now and ask how likely can Laine improve and push play forward in the upcoming season like Matthews showed in the previous season and its questionable enough to make me lean the opposite way from where Ive been the last year.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 12, 2017, 12:43:43 PM
Marner feels like a bit too high. Nylander feels too low (esp. with Puljujarvi and Arvidsson, etc. above him). Matthews is in the right spot.

Rielly is... whatever. Pronman has Ristolainen higher than Rielly, so I'm a bit flummoxed there.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on September 12, 2017, 01:33:41 PM
Yeah, the Nylander ranking is pretty laughable.

61 points last year, improved as the games got harder and then dominated the WHC.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Dappleganger on September 12, 2017, 01:35:08 PM
Marner feels like a bit too high. Nylander feels too low (esp. with Puljujarvi and Arvidsson, etc. above him). Matthews is in the right spot.

Rielly is... whatever. Pronman has Ristolainen higher than Rielly, so I'm a bit flummoxed there.

Nothing against Rielly, but I'd take Ristolainen over Rielly every time. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on September 12, 2017, 01:39:43 PM
Marner feels like a bit too high. Nylander feels too low (esp. with Puljujarvi and Arvidsson, etc. above him). Matthews is in the right spot.

Rielly is... whatever. Pronman has Ristolainen higher than Rielly, so I'm a bit flummoxed there.

Nothing against Rielly, but I'd take Ristolainen over Rielly every time.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/Ow59c0pwTPruU/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on September 12, 2017, 02:26:20 PM

Predicting the Toronto "Aretnas" becoming a meme around that time. Much like the "Oneders" from That Thing You Do.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 13, 2017, 02:06:17 PM
In honour of my World Cup memories,

Team North American Leafs
Marleau - Matthews - Marner
Leivo - Kadri - Hyman
JvR - Bozak - Bracco
Rychel - Brooks - Piccinich

Gardiner - Carrick
Rielly - Hainsey
Dermott - Nielsen

Sparks

Team European Leafs
Timashov - Nylander - Grundstrom
Johnsson - Aaltonen - Kapanen
Soshnikov - Komarov - Korshkov
Lindberg - Bobylev - Dzierkals

Borgman - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev
Marincin - Rasanen

Andersen

Yeah, I know Nylander was born in Calgary.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on September 14, 2017, 11:23:53 AM
In what is quite frankly shocking news, both Horton and Lupul failed their medicals.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 15, 2017, 08:42:53 AM

I cried.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2017, 08:49:02 AM

I cried.

He's wrong, Auston Matthews would take that potato and pass it around, and the team would be amazed that there's enough food for the entire roster, coaches, training staff and management.  Jesus-style.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 17, 2017, 05:22:24 AM

I cried.

He's wrong, Auston Matthews would take that potato and pass it around, and the team would be amazed that there's enough food for the entire roster, coaches, training staff and management.  Jesus-style.


The poor humble potato.  :)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 21, 2017, 07:17:46 PM
www.twitter.com/zeisberger/status/910990291863252992

Thanks, Andersen!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 27, 2017, 02:15:17 PM
https://theathletic.com/111725/2017/09/27/mirtle-is-the-nhls-shift-away-from-veterans-to-the-kids-a-good-thing/

Amidst the salary cap, free agency, and rookie count conversation, Mirtle touches on the biometrics the Leafs are using during practice and what the data might be telling them about peak performance curves.

We saw last season Nylander getting pulled from an upcoming game due to some mysterious ailment after a full practice. The theory at the time was something showed up weird in the monitors and they wanted to play it safe.

This point, in conjunction with Greening's remark that all the UFAs signed by the Leafs for the NHL roster are all upper 30s, but still in the league and considered effective piqued a theory.

Originally, when they were signed, my take was that they wanted playoff veterans who had the right playstyles to match the young roster; players who also had the 'intangibles' of living right, gyming hard, and eating properly. Having them in the room with the younger players to impart a lot of that through osmosis and mentorship, teaching them how to have longevity in a league that chews the majority of its players up, and in the case of Marleau how to handle being a highly touted star and staying grounded. They're also at the stage in their careers where they are right on the cusp between still-effective and overtake-able (hence the short contracts).

Now I believe there is an additional benefit: science! The Sports Science & Performance department is gathering oodles of biometric data on every player in the system, the elites, the primes, the prospects. Now they have a small sample of Methuselahs and can start finding data markers for what sets Marleau, Hainsey, and Moore apart from the rest of their cohorts that have since retired. It's not just right living and maintenance that gets some players up to their 40s playing a high speed contact sport effectively. The Leafs have a lot of technology at their disposal and now they also have some guinea pigs to really test their theories and techniques on for refining the development program and finding advantages in scouting.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 27, 2017, 03:15:55 PM
Analytics has helped teams realize this: re: Mirtle article

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 28, 2017, 07:55:31 AM
Apparently, a rival team has been sniffing around our Leivo

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/josh-leivo-faces-uphill-climb-make-leafs-despite-strong-showing/

but our asking price was prohibitively high.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on September 29, 2017, 03:22:14 PM
https://theathletic.com/112119/2017/09/29/dellow-maple-leafs-penalty-kill-had-it-coming-against-capitals-but-new-season-presents-opportunity-to-improve/

The most beautiful data slicing I've seen to date.

Pair it with this: https://theleafsnation.com/2017/09/26/the-leafs-need-to-make-some-changes-to-their-penalty-kill/ for an earthy flavour with citrus notes.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 30, 2017, 04:13:57 AM
Maple Leafs Pre-season shot rates.  Per Sean Tierney  @ChartingHockey

(https://imageshack.com/i/pnclT3Krj)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 03, 2017, 05:03:52 AM
MARNTHEWDERS is 20-21 years old. It hasn't even peaked yet. Let that sink in.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 03, 2017, 10:10:06 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/10/3/16389488/should-the-leafs-keep-matthews-and-nylander-together-long-term-toronto-william-auston-mitch-marner

There's a good Krieger quote most would use in response to this.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 03, 2017, 10:24:30 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/10/3/16389488/should-the-leafs-keep-matthews-and-nylander-together-long-term-toronto-william-auston-mitch-marner

There's a good Krieger quote most would use in response to this.

Quote
The assumption has generally been that William Nylander will, at some point, move back from right wing to his natural position of centre, probably when Tyler Bozak leaves. This would give the Leafs a centre lineup of Matthews, Nylander, and Nazem Kadri, which very few teams this side of Pittsburgh can match.

I've always had this assumption too, but man is watching Matthews and Nylander fun. If we can get Bozak re-signed to a very team friendly contract I wouldn't be completely opposed to sticking with x-Matthews-Nylander | x-Kadri-Brown/Kapanen | x-Bozak-Marner long term. Flip Kapanen or Brown to the left side or use one as trade bait for a defenceman.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 03, 2017, 10:36:38 AM
Quote
The assumption has generally been that William Nylander will, at some point, move back from right wing to his natural position of centre, probably when Tyler Bozak leaves. This would give the Leafs a centre lineup of Matthews, Nylander, and Nazem Kadri, which very few teams this side of Pittsburgh can match.

I've always had this assumption too, but man is watching Matthews and Nylander fun. If we can get Bozak re-signed to a very team friendly contract I wouldn't be completely opposed to sticking with x-Matthews-Nylander / x-Kadri-Brown / x-Bozak-Marner long term. Flip Kapanen to the left side or use him as trade bait for a defenceman.

Yeah it does look like it'll be fun.

I don't think we need to keep Bozak, per se, because Aaltonen and Brooks are nice LH options coming up and we'll probably see one of them sooner rather than later. Bozak's body was being held together by duct tape by the end of the season. Neither of those two options are as good as Bozak is currently, but their development/effectiveness curves will intersect shortly.

If it becomes a bit of a line driving issue, I have no problems with running the suggested swap of Marner and Nylander, and giving Nylander wingers like Kapanen, Brown, Johnsson, Grundstrom, Timashov, Korshkov, etc.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: mr grieves on October 03, 2017, 12:51:02 PM
I've always had this assumption too, but man is watching Matthews and Nylander fun. If we can get Bozak re-signed to a very team friendly contract I wouldn't be completely opposed to sticking with x-Matthews-Nylander | x-Kadri-Brown/Kapanen | x-Bozak-Marner long term. Flip Kapanen or Brown to the left side or use one as trade bait for a defenceman.

I'd be happy to see them play out their ELCs on one line, but once you get a couple seasons out, Matthews and Nylander on one line with make this a two-line team (with all due respect to Bozak and Aaltonen). There's enough talent coming up on the wings that I don't think you'll need Nylander to give Matthews a top-9 forward to play with.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 03, 2017, 12:53:36 PM
I'm sure a lot of this will become clearer after the last playoff game this year. The Leafs are actually good again. Last time I went into a season expecting playoffs and a 40-45 win campaign was 2004, the last year of the Pat Quinn era. 14 long years.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 04, 2017, 12:27:29 PM
Invalid Tweet IDInvalid Tweet ID(https://media.giphy.com/media/61KXXDgl7rZPW/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 04, 2017, 04:28:03 PM
Invalid Tweet ID

Been waiting for this moment all summer long.  F-i-n-a-l-l-y here!!!  :) :) :) :)

GO LEAFS GO!!!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 07, 2017, 10:49:31 AM
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 08, 2017, 10:33:41 PM
(https://imgflip.com/s/meme/Dave-Chappelle.jpg)

"Y'all got any more a them Leaf games?"
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 09, 2017, 04:24:03 AM
Plenty of pride here...

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 09, 2017, 04:26:49 AM
And...

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Arn on October 10, 2017, 10:08:01 AM
Interesting stats following out of last night's game situation.

Over the last 2 seasons while leading after 2 Chicago were 67-2-7
Over the last season while trailing after 2 Toronto were 3-22-2

Obviously only one game so pretty meaningless but a nice turn around
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 10, 2017, 12:14:01 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/10/10/leafs-notebook-scintillating-start-october-10/

Great stuff from MLHS as usual.

What I really want to draw your attention to is the header image, and Bozak's facial expression to JvR's dedication to the safety of his teammates.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Downtown on October 10, 2017, 03:05:29 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/10/10/leafs-notebook-scintillating-start-october-10/

Great stuff from MLHS as usual.

What I really want to draw your attention to is the header image, and Bozak's facial expression to JvR's dedication to the safety of his teammates.

Loved this one:

Trying to go for the lady byng this year. Its not going to be easy
Leo Komarov after the Jets game and an ominous penalty for tilting his visor
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 10, 2017, 03:10:18 PM
I liked this point about Patrick Marleau:

Quote
You can see his skating is still there, but what is really underrated game is how physical he is along the walls. Its not hit-and-hurt physical; it is body positioning and using his 62, ~220-pound frame to win battles and dig pucks out. You can tell that he has played his whole career in the Western Conference.

If a shake-up of the forward lines ever happens, I'd really like to see Marner play with Marleau and Kadri. That line could really mimic how the Matthews line plays I think. And putting Komarov (or Brown) with JVR and Bozak would add a defensive element to that duo for the first time ever.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 10, 2017, 03:31:49 PM
Marleau's speed on the backcheck was another something something that sort of got lost in the fireworks of last night's game. He has also been working with some of the younger players (especially Marner) after practice on shot release and getting reps in tight on the crease.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 10, 2017, 03:48:13 PM
For sure, I can see him using body positioning the way Sundin did, both about the same size.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 10, 2017, 05:20:25 PM
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on October 10, 2017, 07:31:13 PM
If a shake-up of the forward lines ever happens, I'd really like to see Marner play with Marleau and Kadri. That line could really mimic how the Matthews line plays I think. And putting Komarov (or Brown) with JVR and Bozak would add a defensive element to that duo for the first time ever.

I kind of like that also, because Bozak and JVR need the help I think..
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 11, 2017, 02:40:12 PM
At first I was a bit miffed by the refs calling the game like it should be: do I need a cardiac event tonight?

But in the clear light of day, I can now safely say, this is a good thing. Because after each PK:
Kadri - Matthews - Nylander or Marleau - Matthews - Nylander
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on October 11, 2017, 03:50:31 PM
At first I was a bit miffed by the refs calling the game like it should be: do I need a cardiac event tonight?

But in the clear light of day, I can now safely say, this is a good thing. Because after each PK:
Kadri - Matthews - Nylander or Marleau - Matthews - Nylander

Yes, it's a great thing when the Leafs PK is working....the other team's best players get tired out playing the PP and then you hit them with your top offensive players immediately upon killing the penalty. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 11, 2017, 05:50:28 PM
Pierre Lebrun sat in on a discussion between Ray Shero and Mike Babcock this morning, I found it quite interesting.

https://theathletic.com/124787/2017/10/11/lebrun-mike-babcock-and-ray-shero-talk-sharing-information-what-makes-a-good-coach-and-managing-people/
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 12, 2017, 07:13:37 PM
On the way to work today I was like "Leafs game tonite? ... no, Saturday."
Tomorrow I'll be like "Leafs game tonite?? ... no, Saturday."

Saturday I'll be like yeahhhhhhh.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on October 13, 2017, 08:55:40 AM
On the way to work today I was like "Leafs game tonite? ... no, Saturday."
Tomorrow I'll be like "Leafs game tonite?? ... no, Saturday."

Saturday I'll be like yeahhhhhhh.

I'm getting my girls into watching hockey.  It's so much fun now that the Leafs aren't a horrible team anymore.  My kids sit and watch 1-2 periods with me before it's time for them to sleep, then they're excited the next morning asking me who won.  Was great the Chicago game cause they went to bed thinking the Leafs would lose but I got to tell them that superstar Auston Matthews won the game for us.

I wish the Leafs were this good when I was a kid.  :-/
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 13, 2017, 10:01:25 AM

Small sample size. Small sample size. Small sample... forget it.

I'm hyped.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 13, 2017, 12:51:31 PM
On the way to work today I was like "Leafs game tonite? ... no, Saturday."
Tomorrow I'll be like "Leafs game tonite?? ... no, Saturday."

Saturday I'll be like yeahhhhhhh.

I'm getting my girls into watching hockey.  It's so much fun now that the Leafs aren't a horrible team anymore.  My kids sit and watch 1-2 periods with me before it's time for them to sleep, then they're excited the next morning asking me who won.  Was great the Chicago game cause they went to bed thinking the Leafs would lose but I got to tell them that superstar Auston Matthews won the game for us.

I wish the Leafs were this good when I was a kid.  :-/

Great story Zee! Everyone should chip in with their viewing habits :)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 15, 2017, 05:29:00 AM
weeeeeeeeee
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 16, 2017, 10:37:36 AM
If you have any interesting in the microstats of the defense corps, you can find them consolidated here!

http://dissecttheblueline.weebly.com/leafs.html

Not including Game 1 vs the Jets:
Quote
iCF contributions on the PP
    I put this together to directly measure Gardiner vs Rielly on the PP and couldn't believe the distance between the two. For this portion I just added shot attempt assists + shot attempts on the PP and put it into /60 format. Mind you, this is with just over 32 minutes of combined data but here's the result.

Rielly 59.99/60
Gardiner 23.24/60

Rielly is basically a 5th forward on the PP, who can also skate backwards. Not much of a shot though.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 18, 2017, 10:14:18 AM
It's so, so, so early to judge these signings, but why not?

Aaltonen (March 17, 2017): On the Marlies as expected, but quite a bit feistier and more skilled than his stat-lines suggested. Trails only Soshnikov and Rychel with shots on goal having only played 4 of the 5 games.

Bracco (March 21, 2017): Has only just started his season (2 GP) with the Marlies due to a bout of mono over the summer and losing what little weight he had to begin with. He has a tough climb ahead of him

Ben Smith (May 2, 2017): Don't look now, but Smith is leading the Marlies in scoring at a point per game. I like him on the Marlies. Please stay there.

Zaitsev (May 2, 2017): Looks solid and more confident. It was largely the back half when he tired that things started looking bleak. He mentioned last season that he trained slightly wrong, and dumped too many EVs into his Physical Attack stat instead of Speed and HP. Playing with Gardiner sure helps, but he's still getting the hard match every night and no PP time.

Rosn (May 16, 2017): Looking a bit lost in the NHL game speed, but there's an adjustment period. His wheels are beautiful, but his game think is suspect. No PP time means we'll probably only very rarely see his shot this season. Confidence does wonders though and that hopefully comes as his cushy zone starts builds up his performance.

Borgman (May 16, 2017): Younger, but better than Rosn in terms of toolkit and development runway. I didn't think he'd get big league time so soon, but he's been relatively steady for a rookie. I don't mind Babcock carouseling them.

McElhinney ( June 30, 2017): Looked both extremes during pre-season. Let's see what happens tonight. Probably won't get hooked regardless due to Andersen's rest requirements.

Hainsey (July 1, 2017): As advertised, he has been boring so far, and can still move. Doesn't quite have the instinct on break outs when we're hemmed in (so very few do), but he's so smart at the blue line and positions himself very efficiently along the boards.

Marleau (July 2, 2017): Also as advertised, he has been a solid depth contributor both on offense and defensively. If he wins the Cup with us, what jersey does he wear for the HHoF induction?

Hyman (July 5, 2017): People are hating him on the top line less. Probably because he's showing more confidence with the puck and potting goals. His play without the puck is as superb as it was last season and might be even better now that he's starting to pick his spots to box out plays for Matthews and Nylander to fly by.

Liljegren (July 12, 2017): So glad he decided to stay in Toronto, and so glad it's with the Marlies instead of being forced onto the Leafs (deeeeeppppppptttthhhhh). He is adjusting to the new country and NA game, which means he is leading the defense in shots and points so far (4 GP, 1G, 2A, 8SOG), and also in this extremely small sample size, out producing Kapanen (4GP, 2G, 0 A, 7SOG).

Brown (August 26, 2017): Brown is playing like it's his contract year; he's just flying into the forecheck and backcheck. Playing every phase of the game helps him get the minutes he should be getting higher up in the lineup. He doesn't drive play on his own, but playing alongside skill, he is a very good complement.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 18, 2017, 11:53:17 AM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/10/18/leafs-notebook-early-look-ice-time-distribution-october-18/

Great stuff looking into our personnel usage at the moment. Lots of role-based usage (Carlton mentioned the PK times in the Capital's GDT). Glaring hole on 4LW in that it is being filled by someone who has a very specific utility.

Quote
5) I think the rotation where Babcock sneaks Marleau or Kadri with Matthews and Nylander after a penalty kill is really effective. Id look to continue doing that. Id also consider sneaking Marner in with those two a little more often. Coming out of a penalty kill, the Leafs might be the most dangerous team in the league. Its a huge swing in momentum.

This is so fun. It also breaks Corsica data pulls unless you specify the right TOI boundaries, because they crazy.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Dappleganger on October 18, 2017, 01:18:52 PM
Anyone feeling the same way? Leafs No. 1 in the TSN power rankings:

http://www.tsn.ca/turning-over-a-new-leaf-in-7-eleven-power-rankings-1.885880
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on October 18, 2017, 01:26:24 PM
Anyone feeling the same way? Leafs No. 1 in the TSN power rankings:

http://www.tsn.ca/turning-over-a-new-leaf-in-7-eleven-power-rankings-1.885880
Vegas co-favorites as well...

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/news/maple-leafs-now-betting-favourites-to-win-the-stanley-cup/ar-AAtGRRI?li=AAggNb9 (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/news/maple-leafs-now-betting-favourites-to-win-the-stanley-cup/ar-AAtGRRI?li=AAggNb9)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on October 18, 2017, 01:32:58 PM
Anyone feeling the same way? Leafs No. 1 in the TSN power rankings:

http://www.tsn.ca/turning-over-a-new-leaf-in-7-eleven-power-rankings-1.885880
Vegas co-favorites as well...

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/news/maple-leafs-now-betting-favourites-to-win-the-stanley-cup/ar-AAtGRRI?li=AAggNb9 (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/news/maple-leafs-now-betting-favourites-to-win-the-stanley-cup/ar-AAtGRRI?li=AAggNb9)

Some dude on TSN had their "pro-line best bets" yesterday and said to take the Caps and the Sabres over the Leafs and Golden Knights.  I guess whoever followed his advice last night is wondering why today.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 20, 2017, 08:09:56 PM
https://hockeypdocast.com/2017/10/19/ep-200-top-10-goalies/

Normally something like this would be posted in the general NHL thread, but if you scroll to about 47:20 it becomes a lot more relevant surprisingly.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 22, 2017, 03:42:38 PM

Heeeey. Points per ice time.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 22, 2017, 06:03:33 PM

Heeeey. Points per ice time.


Don't like where Marner stands here.  Quite accurate in showing his production this year.  Not a good trajectory to have.  Improvement required.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 23, 2017, 09:26:32 AM
https://hockeypdocast.com/2017/10/19/ep-200-top-10-goalies/

Normally something like this would be posted in the general NHL thread, but if you scroll to about 47:20 it becomes a lot more relevant surprisingly.

More specific (podcast) conversation about the Leafs' goalie situation:
https://soundcloud.com/leafs-geeks/episode-64-goaltending-analysis-with-nick-mercadante
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 23, 2017, 10:11:20 AM
Pointless observations from hockey-reference (https://www.hockey-reference.com) and corsica.hockey (http://www.corsica.hockey):

Matthews: 8 GP 7G 5A 12Pts
Last season, it took Matthews 20 games to reach 7 goals (4 goals in Game 1).

Nylander: 8 GP 3 G 6A 9 Pts
He was faster last season to reach these totals (3G in 5 games, 10 pts in 8 GP), but they were all in losing efforts. He didn't go more than 3 games without a point last year.

Hyman: 8GP 3G 2A 5Pts
Zach Hyman reached 3 G after 22 GP last season. He got it in 7 this season.

Kadri: 8GP 4G 4A 8Pts
It took Kadri 10 games last season to reach 4 goals and 8 points.

Brown: 8GP 3G 2A 5Pts
It took 17 games for Brown to score 3 goals last season and he did it this year in 7 games playing mostly 4th line minutes (all his goals are EV, two of them with JvR-Bozak though).

Rielly: 8GP 1G 6A 7Pts
The added PP time has given Rielly's counting stats a small boost (1G 3A -- all secondary assists).

Fun comparison on the PP though where Rielly's lack of point-shot is not holding him or Kadri's PP unit back:
TOIGAP1CFCAGFGAxGFxGAiCFiCF/60
Gardiner21.31123011313.441.1238.45
Rielly20.75131554607.020.111337.59

Hainsey: 8 GP 0G 6A 6Pts
Hainsey has doubled his production with Pittsburgh in half the number of games played. He hit 6 pts with Carolina at 17 games.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 23, 2017, 12:11:03 PM

Fehr on Waivers, according to Mckenzie.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 23, 2017, 12:11:42 PM
Which means Rosen might be back sooner rather than later.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 23, 2017, 12:15:46 PM
They weren't going to keep rotating Fehr and Moore forever and Moore looked like the better player. I'll give Fehr credit though he was better than I was expecting. That might earn him a claim from somebody.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 23, 2017, 12:26:18 PM
Yeah, the Fehr waiving basically covers the cost of Polak.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 23, 2017, 12:33:37 PM
Yeah, the Fehr waiving basically covers the cost of Polak.

They had room under the cap (LTIR room) to carry both.

However, they don't have roster space for all of Polak, Rosen, and Fehr.  Expect to see Rosen back up after Fehr gets claimed or assigned to the Marlies.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 23, 2017, 12:40:34 PM
I wonder if Fehr becomes more attractive to other teams after clearing waivers ala Pickard.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bender on October 23, 2017, 12:45:24 PM
I wonder if Fehr becomes more attractive to other teams after clearing waivers ala Pickard.
He's still insurance in case Moore gets hurt.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 23, 2017, 12:47:12 PM
I wonder if Fehr becomes more attractive to other teams after clearing waivers ala Pickard.
He's still insurance in case Moore gets hurt.

Yeah, I would think the Leafs would value him being in the minors and ready for an injury call-up rather than the 6th round pick they'd get in return
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 23, 2017, 12:54:46 PM
Yeah, you could well be right, just speculating as to all the possible outcomes.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 23, 2017, 01:03:03 PM
The only reason the Leafs may want to move Fehr out is if they have another move brewing:

Fehr will still account for 975k of cap space while in the minors.  Right now they sit at $5.45 million available under LTIR, prior to demoting Fehr and calling up Calle (as expected).  After those moves, they will be at $5.55 million available.  If Fehr were to be traded or claimed, the cap space would grow to $6.525 million.

Just sayin'....
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/erik-karlsson
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 23, 2017, 01:04:37 PM
The only reason the Leafs may want to move Fehr out is if they have another move brewing:

Fehr will still account for 975k of cap space while in the minors.  Right now they sit at $5.45 million available under LTIR, prior to demoting Fehr and calling up Calle (as expected).  After those moves, they will be at $5.55 million available.  If Fehr were to be traded or claimed, the cap space would grow to $6.525 million.

Just sayin'....
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/erik-karlsson

I'm pretty sure Karlsson is going to make more than 6.525 in his next deal.  I'm also pretty sure the Sens are moving him at any point over this season.  If they aren't moving Turris, they aren't moving Karlsson.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 23, 2017, 01:08:12 PM
He's still insurance in case Moore gets hurt.

They still have Aaltonen (who looked like he was about to steal the 4C spot until the last second), Gauthier (who looked like he was going to be the teams future 4C), and Ben Smith (*sigh*) with the Marlies. I don't think any teams needs FOUR back-up 4th line centres.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 23, 2017, 01:11:06 PM
The only reason the Leafs may want to move Fehr out is if they have another move brewing:

Fehr will still account for 975k of cap space while in the minors.  Right now they sit at $5.45 million available under LTIR, prior to demoting Fehr and calling up Calle (as expected).  After those moves, they will be at $5.55 million available.  If Fehr were to be traded or claimed, the cap space would grow to $6.525 million.

Just sayin'....
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/erik-karlsson

I'm pretty sure Karlsson is going to make more than 6.525 in his next deal.  I'm also pretty sure the Sens are moving him at any point over this season.  If they aren't moving Turris, they aren't moving Karlsson.

It was a joke.  Of course they aren't moving him.  But, since you took it seriously.... I'll take him at 12.5M on his next contract and he could still be added to this years team if there was ever a chance in hell that would happen.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on October 23, 2017, 01:37:00 PM
The only reason the Leafs may want to move Fehr out is if they have another move brewing:

Or just to free up as much cap space as possible through moving players who they don't expect to contribute to the roster . . .
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 24, 2017, 12:08:20 PM

Fehr cleared waivers, for those of you holding your breath.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on October 24, 2017, 12:13:13 PM

Fehr cleared waivers, for those of you holding your breath.
There was nothing to Fehr but Fehr itself.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 24, 2017, 02:14:36 PM
Fehr cleared waivers, for those of you holding your breath.

He's cleared, but hasn't been assigned to the Marlies as far as I can tell from the transaction logs.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 24, 2017, 02:16:22 PM
Fehr cleared waivers, for those of you holding your breath.

He's cleared, but hasn't been assigned to the Marlies as far as I can tell from the transaction logs.

The news won't all burst forth at once. You have to let it release in slow drips so that we have several things to talk about. Fehr clearing waivers and being assigned to the Marlies in one post? Heads would explode. Servers would crash. Enjoy the anticipation.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 24, 2017, 02:38:17 PM
It's curious because Fehr did not need to be waived to make room for Polak (wouldn't have been in time for the game against LA either), as Rosen's loan sufficed.

I know the reason he made the opening night roster was primarily for his cap hit to juice the LTIR (same with Marincin) and getting him a game in front of his 'hometown'.

And now I'm being confronted by my own mortality because I'm a few months older than Fehr and he looks a decade older than his birthdate suggests. Like, nearly as old as Ekblad.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on October 24, 2017, 02:39:14 PM
Fehr cleared waivers, for those of you holding your breath.

He's cleared, but hasn't been assigned to the Marlies as far as I can tell from the transaction logs.

The news won't all burst forth at once. You have to let it release in slow drips so that we have several things to talk about. Fehr clearing waivers and being assigned to the Marlies in one post? Heads would explode. Servers would crash. Enjoy the anticipation.

Actually, I'm told that Fehr's fate has been decided, but this information is only available through The Athletic. 

It's an extension of their business model...they are now the only PR for the Maple Leafs, and pay the Leafs on a year-by-year renewable contract for the exclusive info.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 24, 2017, 02:45:49 PM
Actually, I'm told that Fehr's fate has been decided, but this information is only available through The Athletic. 

It's an extension of their business model...they are now the only PR for the Maple Leafs, and pay the Leafs on a year-by-year renewable contract for the exclusive info.

Similarly, I'll be introducing a subscription model for all of my posts. For the easily affordable rate of 7.99 per month you'll have access to each and everyone of my overwritten 800+ word posts. For our exclusive premium plan at 9.99 my posts will be 250 tightly edited words but with the one or two good lines intact for your pleasure.

Of course, you probably won't subscribe. That's because I've always thought that you are....

Want to find out what I think of Frank E or even you? The Nikletic subscriptions start at 7.99 per month or a one time yearly payment of 7.99*.

*We still haven't hired accountants.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on October 24, 2017, 03:00:33 PM
Actually, I'm told that Fehr's fate has been decided, but this information is only available through The Athletic. 

It's an extension of their business model...they are now the only PR for the Maple Leafs, and pay the Leafs on a year-by-year renewable contract for the exclusive info.

Similarly, I'll be introducing a subscription model for all of my posts. For the easily affordable rate of 7.99 per month you'll have access to each and everyone of my overwritten 800+ word posts. For our exclusive premium plan at 9.99 my posts will be 250 tightly edited words but with the one or two good lines intact for your pleasure.

Of course, you probably won't subscribe. That's because I've always thought that you are....

Want to find out what I think of Frank E or even you? The Nikletic subscriptions start at 7.99 per month or a one time yearly payment of 7.99*.

*We still haven't hired accountants.

Don't do it guys, there's no free-trial, and trying to cancel Nikletic is worse than attempting to cancel your GoodLife membership...there's even more guilting.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 24, 2017, 03:11:10 PM
Actually, I'm told that Fehr's fate has been decided, but this information is only available through The Athletic. 

It's an extension of their business model...they are now the only PR for the Maple Leafs, and pay the Leafs on a year-by-year renewable contract for the exclusive info.

Similarly, I'll be introducing a subscription model for all of my posts. For the easily affordable rate of 7.99 per month you'll have access to each and everyone of my overwritten 800+ word posts. For our exclusive premium plan at 9.99 my posts will be 250 tightly edited words but with the one or two good lines intact for your pleasure.

Of course, you probably won't subscribe. That's because I've always thought that you are....

Want to find out what I think of Frank E or even you? The Nikletic subscriptions start at 7.99 per month or a one time yearly payment of 7.99*.

*We still haven't hired accountants.

So you lied in that other post?  I don't know.  This changes things, but I am still intrigued.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Rob on October 24, 2017, 03:46:28 PM
I think I'll just wait for someone to post it all here verbatim. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 24, 2017, 04:15:05 PM
I think I'll just wait for someone to post it all here verbatim.

Full disclosure, a fair number of posts at the Nikletic are me telling other posters not to post the material here. Downside being it's repetitive content. Upside being I think it's created a temporal paradox.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 25, 2017, 12:28:13 PM
JVR missed practice today and Marner was in his spot.

I assume JVR has a lower-body injury after twisting his leg against the LAK.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 25, 2017, 12:36:47 PM
A couple of shots fired down at the Mastercard Centre
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on October 25, 2017, 01:28:50 PM
A couple of shots fired down at the Mastercard Centre
Juicy Babcock comment: who do you think he's referring to?

Alexey Marchenko
Milan Michalek
Peter Holland
Frankie Corrado
Jhonas Enroth
Jared Cowen
David Booth
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 25, 2017, 03:18:05 PM
Holland or Corrado
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 25, 2017, 04:58:28 PM
What's up?

Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 25, 2017, 08:20:16 PM
Shipachyov, Miller and a pick for one of our upcoming UFA's and a medium prospect?

This gets Vegas out of their Shipachyov problem and you get some gravy because he has another year after this.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on October 25, 2017, 09:02:12 PM
Shipachyov, Miller and a pick for one of our upcoming UFA's and a medium prospect?

This gets Vegas out of their Shipachyov problem and you get some gravy because he has another year after this.

Let them keep Miller if they eat half of the cap hit.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Jolly good show chaps on October 26, 2017, 03:11:11 AM
Shipachyov, Miller and a pick for one of our upcoming UFA's and a medium prospect?

This gets Vegas out of their Shipachyov problem and you get some gravy because he has another year after this.

I was thinking along those lines but for Theodore instead of Miller and for a couple of our wing prospects and maybe a draft pick.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 26, 2017, 05:21:28 AM
Proper dietary regiment, how to minimize injuries & maximize player health, etc., etc., are an integral part of keeping the team in top shape and the maintenance of it's players' wel-being:

 "Everyone seems to think its luck when you stay healthy and unlucky when you get hurt, said Andersen. But I think its just as much the things you do. . . . Youve got to put yourself in a position to be a healthy player.

The breadth of the teams efforts to put each Leaf in such a position is too expansive to catalogue here. It includes everything from a GPS tracking system worn in practice that can help the team detect the warning signs of overuse injuries, to the gamut of therapeutic training-room accessories. There are hot tubs and cold tubs and cryotherapy chambers, physiotherapists and chiropractors and doctors. There are nutritionist-approved meals at the ready. The list goes on and on.

Some players leave it to the team to dictate how to navigate a typical day as a pro. Leafs forward Matt Martin said the teams training-room staff is proactive in its approach seeking out trouble spots before they turn into injuries. Tight hip muscles, for instance, are an occupational hazard among hockey players that can lead to a chain of unwanted side effects.

If you have a tight hip, your groin starts working harder to protect that. And thats generally when you get a groin pull, Martin said. Its about making sure your bodys moving the right way.

See story:
https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2017/10/25/healthy-appetite-feeds-leafs-master-plan-feschuk.html
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 26, 2017, 09:34:32 AM

Look who's not NOT a NHLer anymore Babs!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 26, 2017, 09:40:50 AM
Juicy Babcock comment: who do you think he's referring to?

Alexey Marchenko
Milan Michalek
Peter Holland
Frankie Corrado
Jhonas Enroth
Jared Cowen
David Booth


Seth Griffith.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 26, 2017, 09:50:32 AM
Everyone forgets Griffith. In this case, I don't think he's the one Babcock was talking about though.

Quote context:
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/10/25/mike-babcock-jvrs-status-josh-leivos-patience/
Quote
How have you seen Josh Leivo tackle the mental challenge here where hes always kind of on standby but never knows when hes going to play?

Babcock: I think Leivs has been great with that. Weve talked about it lots. Weve had players here in the past that were disgruntled and then when they went somewhere else, they found out they werent NHL players. Just keep getting better every day. Youre getting paid to get better. Youre getting paid to train. When you get your chance hes getting a chance for sure be ready and make sure no one can take you out. The beauty of the system is, once you get in, if you play good enough, no one takes you out.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 26, 2017, 09:59:40 AM
Quote context:
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/10/25/mike-babcock-jvrs-status-josh-leivos-patience/
Quote
How have you seen Josh Leivo tackle the mental challenge here where hes always kind of on standby but never knows when hes going to play?

Babcock: I think Leivs has been great with that. Weve talked about it lots. Weve had players here in the past that were disgruntled and then when they went somewhere else, they found out they werent NHL players. Just keep getting better every day. Youre getting paid to get better. Youre getting paid to train. When you get your chance hes getting a chance for sure be ready and make sure no one can take you out. The beauty of the system is, once you get in, if you play good enough, no one takes you out.

I mean that underlined part is like 100% untrue. Leivo was practically one of the Leafs best players in that 10 game or whatever stretch he played last season and went directly back into the pressbox once we got healthy after that despite playing "good enough".
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 26, 2017, 10:06:30 AM
Quote context:
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/10/25/mike-babcock-jvrs-status-josh-leivos-patience/
Quote
How have you seen Josh Leivo tackle the mental challenge here where hes always kind of on standby but never knows when hes going to play?

Babcock: I think Leivs has been great with that. Weve talked about it lots. Weve had players here in the past that were disgruntled and then when they went somewhere else, they found out they werent NHL players. Just keep getting better every day. Youre getting paid to get better. Youre getting paid to train. When you get your chance hes getting a chance for sure be ready and make sure no one can take you out. The beauty of the system is, once you get in, if you play good enough, no one takes you out.

I mean that underlined part is like 100% untrue. Leivo was practically one of the Leafs best players in that 10 game or whatever stretch he played last season and went directly back into the pressbox once we got healthy after that despite playing "good enough".

He's been saying a version of that all season, and I laugh because Matt Martin is still in the lineup.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 26, 2017, 10:52:09 AM
So you're saying, basically, that Babcock is no better than Trump.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 28, 2017, 12:19:14 AM
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on October 29, 2017, 02:15:56 PM
What I don't quite understand is the Mitch Marner demotion.  Ever since Babcock did that, the Leafs haven't been the same.  Then last night he shuffled the lineup again.  There's that old saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it".  The Leafs were in first place overall in the league when Babcock demoted Marner.  He is not a fourth line player.  He is an elite offensive talent.  I will say Kapanen is better than a bunch of the other forwards currently with the club, so I say keep him up.  Aside from that, though, they should revert to the forward lines they used at the beginning of the season.

I'm not saying Marner is perfect or that he doesn't have stuff to work on.  He does.  Don Cherry was right last night when he pointed out Marner's lazy backchecking that led to a goal by Philly.  Players shouldn't have to be demoted when they have to work on something.  Marner is young and I'm sure he's coachable.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Arn on October 29, 2017, 06:09:16 PM
If Martin goes straight back in for Leivo there's a good chance my head may implode
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on October 30, 2017, 03:57:53 PM
And...Babcock is reverting to the opening night lineup for tonight's game.  I must know something.  8)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 30, 2017, 04:37:59 PM
What I don't quite understand is the Mitch Marner demotion.  Ever since Babcock did that, the Leafs haven't been the same.  Then last night he shuffled the lineup again.  There's that old saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it".


But it was broke. The team was scoring in bunches and their defensive issues were being covered up. The scoring slowed down and the defense remained terrible over the last few games.
Is Marner a 4th line player? No. He knows that and Babcock knows that. When players stink, the first step is to try and correct their habits. When that doesn't happen, what choice does a coach really have other than to send a message by demotion?

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on October 30, 2017, 05:56:20 PM
What I don't quite understand is the Mitch Marner demotion.  Ever since Babcock did that, the Leafs haven't been the same.  Then last night he shuffled the lineup again.  There's that old saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it".


But it was broke. The team was scoring in bunches and their defensive issues were being covered up. The scoring slowed down and the defense remained terrible over the last few games.
Is Marner a 4th line player? No. He knows that and Babcock knows that. When players stink, the first step is to try and correct their habits. When that doesn't happen, what choice does a coach really have other than to send a message by demotion?
Well Im just glad that Babcock has gone back to what was working. Hopefully Marner got the message. I hope they showed him the video clip Don Cherry showed also. Marner is fast, young, and fit. There is absolutely no excuse for not backchecking.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 30, 2017, 06:17:11 PM
What I don't quite understand is the Mitch Marner demotion.  Ever since Babcock did that, the Leafs haven't been the same.  Then last night he shuffled the lineup again.  There's that old saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it".


But it was broke. The team was scoring in bunches and their defensive issues were being covered up. The scoring slowed down and the defense remained terrible over the last few games.
Is Marner a 4th line player? No. He knows that and Babcock knows that. When players stink, the first step is to try and correct their habits. When that doesn't happen, what choice does a coach really have other than to send a message by demotion?
Well Im just glad that Babcock has gone back to what was working. Hopefully Marner got the message. I hope they showed him the video clip Don Cherry showed also. Marner is fast, young, and fit. There is absolutely no excuse for not backchecking.

He's young and bound to make mistakes. How much he learns from those mistakes will show what kind of hockey player he really is.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on October 31, 2017, 04:32:34 PM

Shake and Bake...
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on October 31, 2017, 05:49:52 PM

Shake and Bake...
Finally Babs is getting it. Perhaps Lou put him in a headlock. Half Nelson
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Rob on October 31, 2017, 06:07:00 PM

Shake and Bake...
Finally Babs is getting it. Perhaps Lou put him in a headlock. Half Nelson

I like to imagine a figure four leg lock.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on October 31, 2017, 06:32:26 PM
Like I mentioned in the GDT, something in Andersen's game was definitely off.
https://theathletic.com/142816/2017/10/31/frederik-andersens-latest-techincal-struggle-and-how-he-can-fix-it/

Good news: it's easily fixable.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on November 01, 2017, 06:41:58 PM
The Leafs have a really tough schedule the next few games.  Chances are they will come out at around .500.  Not good at all considering their hot start.  I really think Babcock is going to be able to fix this though.  The opposing teams have figured out how to neutralize the Leafs' offense, and the Leafs aren't much of a team with their offense neutralized.  Babcock just needs to figure this out, and I think he will.  Andersen hasn't been bad, either.  The defense and team play in front of him hasn't been good enough.  Sure he could be better but he is the last guy they should be blaming or worrying about.

I notice that the opposing teams are lining up five guys on their defensive blue line and then the Leafs are unable to penetrate the zone.  The Leafs need a new strategy, it might be dump and chase or something else.  It's hard to carry the puck over the line with five guys standing there waiting for you.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 02, 2017, 10:58:24 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/11/2/16593106/toronto-maple-leafs-beat-ottawa-senators-1-3-1-forecheck

Bounce pass!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 03, 2017, 11:42:28 AM
Mike Kelly highlighting a few plays that make Connor Brown the top offensive zone stick check'er (by whatever his and his company's criteria for that is):


I get why Babcock likes Hyman on that top line but most of what he does in terms of board work Brown can do just as well, and he has a much better scoring touch. Both are right-handed shots so there's no difference there. Brown might not have as much experience on the left side but I don't think Hyman did either when he first went there. You can't tell me a player as smart as Brown wouldn't be able to figure things out on his off-wing.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 03, 2017, 11:54:10 AM
Hyman and Brown are in the same bucket of players in my mind: super useful utility complements on the wings. They do slightly different things but the same way (you see them, they be work work work work work work). Neither will drive play themselves in transition, but they will extend your opportunities with their forecheck, positioning, and sheer effort. Brown uses the stick more, while Hyman is all about bashing in and parking that booty on the other guy's gloves.

The reasons Hyman gets the nod over Brown with Matthews - Nylander:
- Brown is a better scorer (because he shoots more) and other lines need the scoring more
- Hyman is 20 lbs thicker
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on November 03, 2017, 11:57:58 AM
CtB.  I think Brown would do better than Hyman on his off wing.  Hyman really struggles to find his linemates when he drives wide with the puck.  Head down and zero vision way too often.  I don't see how Brown couldn't do better. 

However, I really like the chemistry of that top line right now.  If anything, I'd really like to see Nylander and Hyman switch just to see if Hyman could be more effective on the right side.  Other than the occasional board battles in his own zone, I don't think Nylander would have any issue playing his off-wing while I think Hyman would be more effective.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 03, 2017, 12:02:28 PM
However, I really like the chemistry of that top line right now.  If anything, I'd really like to see Nylander and Hyman switch just to see if Hyman could be more effective on the right side.  Other than the occasional board battles in his own zone, I don't think Nylander would have any issue playing his off-wing while I think Hyman would be more effective.

Yeah, that wouldn't be a bad idea. It's definitely possible that some of Hyman's struggles offensively could be attributed to him playing his off-wing.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 03, 2017, 12:10:45 PM
Mike Kelly highlighting a few plays that make Connor Brown the top offensive zone stick check'er (by whatever his and his company's criteria for that is):

I get why Babcock likes Hyman on that top line but most of what he does in terms of board work Brown can do just as well, and he has a much better scoring touch. Both are right-handed shots so there's no difference there. Brown might not have as much experience on the left side but I don't think Hyman did either when he first went there. You can't tell me a player as smart as Brown wouldn't be able to figure things out on his off-wing.

Interestingly, each of the plays on the video shows that Brown is actually working the left side!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 03, 2017, 12:14:28 PM
I might be off, but in modern hockey systems, isn't the notion of right and left winger pretty antiquated outside of faceoffs?

It's all F1, F2 and F3 and constantly fluid while in play.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on November 03, 2017, 12:22:52 PM
However, I really like the chemistry of that top line right now.  If anything, I'd really like to see Nylander and Hyman switch just to see if Hyman could be more effective on the right side.  Other than the occasional board battles in his own zone, I don't think Nylander would have any issue playing his off-wing while I think Hyman would be more effective.

Yeah, that wouldn't be a bad idea. It's definitely possible that some of Hyman's struggles offensively could be attributed to him playing his off-wing.

Oh yeah for sure.  I don't think switching sides will work miracles for him but I do think it will help- especially with making passes when he drives the net.  Right now, on his off-side he just puts his head down and bulls to the net.  Maybe that won't change, but being on your strong side makes it easier to make a quick pass. 

If he's going to stay on his off-side, he needs to learn to start driving wide, get his dman to turn, then stop up and curl at the hashmarks so he can make a pass to whomever is coming on the next wave.  He's too predictable right now, always just driving the net with the puck.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on November 03, 2017, 12:33:25 PM
However, I really like the chemistry of that top line right now.  If anything, I'd really like to see Nylander and Hyman switch just to see if Hyman could be more effective on the right side.  Other than the occasional board battles in his own zone, I don't think Nylander would have any issue playing his off-wing while I think Hyman would be more effective.

Yeah, that wouldn't be a bad idea. It's definitely possible that some of Hyman's struggles offensively could be attributed to him playing his off-wing.

Oh yeah for sure.  I don't think switching sides will work miracles for him but I do think it will help- especially with making passes when he drives the net.  Right now, on his off-side he just puts his head down and bulls to the net.  Maybe that won't change, but being on your strong side makes it easier to make a quick pass. 

If he's going to stay on his off-side, he needs to learn to start driving wide, get his dman to turn, then stop up and curl at the hashmarks so he can make a pass to whomever is coming on the next wave.  He's too predictable right now, always just driving the net with the puck.

This is good thinking, and probably worth trying, but to me a higher priority would be to drop Leo to the 4th line and find somebody to play with Kadri and Kapanen.  Marner?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 03, 2017, 01:26:16 PM
I might be off, but in modern hockey systems, isn't the notion of right and left winger pretty antiquated outside of faceoffs?

It's all F1, F2 and F3 and constantly fluid while in play.

This.

Another aspect of Hyman's game that is slightly overlooked because it doesn't show up on the spreadsheets: he's the guy in the crease taking out one defender and obstructing about 40% of a goaltender's mobility/vision.

Matthews' goal against San Jose:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSzm03QRc7M

Shows off Nylander as LW, which works*, but will limit his passing capabilities as he circles behind the net (and I'd rather limit Hyman's offense for the sake of Nylander getting more options), as well as Hyman's Snorlax impression in front of Jones. So he doesn't really touch the puck, but he screens the initial shot to generate the rebound, and ties up Justin Braun by taking away his ability to use his stick to clear the puck, and Matthews swoops by with a little kick up play on the loose puck to snap it home.

* I'd put Nylander on LW if he was the designated shooter on the line (i.e. if there was another distributor). On a line with Matthews though, we're better off with Nylander's righty shot coming up the right wing to give Matthews someone to transition up the ice with more easily (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNNNW0d_-r4). It's also why I want to see Marner with Kadri (or Matthews) because I think he's more effective with an LC.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on November 03, 2017, 04:09:59 PM
Like I mentioned in the GDT, something in Andersen's game was definitely off.
https://theathletic.com/142816/2017/10/31/frederik-andersens-latest-techincal-struggle-and-how-he-can-fix-it/

Good news: it's easily fixable.


As long as he continues to have trouble with the LD - MD shots, that will hamper him.  Though he's best with the HD shots, the rest is definitely fixable.  The charts will tell the tale.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 03, 2017, 04:39:49 PM
Like I mentioned in the GDT, something in Andersen's game was definitely off.
https://theathletic.com/142816/2017/10/31/frederik-andersens-latest-techincal-struggle-and-how-he-can-fix-it/

Good news: it's easily fixable.


As long as he continues to have trouble with the LD - MD shots, that will hamper him.  Though he's best with the HD shots, the rest is definitely fixable.  The charts will tell the tale.

I think he's already sorted it out, actually.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on November 05, 2017, 09:33:21 AM
Something's gotta give here.  I am now genuinely concerned about this team.  They started off great but the league adjusted to them and they have failed to come up with a new game plan.  Sadly, what may happen is that management will trade away some players to try and shake things up.  Maybe JVR for some defense, or even Mitch Marner as some have speculated.  I hope the Leafs can turn things around quickly because I like the team as it is.  They are too good of a team to keep losing like this.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on November 05, 2017, 11:58:33 AM
Something's gotta give here.  I am now genuinely concerned about this team.  They started off great but the league adjusted to them and they have failed to come up with a new game plan.  Sadly, what may happen is that management will trade away some players to try and shake things up.  Maybe JVR for some defense, or even Mitch Marner as some have speculated.  I hope the Leafs can turn things around quickly because I like the team as it is.  They are too good of a team to keep losing like this.

I like their forwards, in general.  The defense is full of holes from top to bottom, and Freddie is a good, but not great, netminder so he is not going to Price them out of their defensive shortcomings.

As a couple of people said post-game, it's time for us to recalibrate our expectations.  That talk about them being SC favorites was pure giddiness.  The team is being exposed, and unless and until they considerably upgrade the defensemen they can't be counted as contenders.  That will not happen this year, and it may take several, if it happens at all.  Some of the defensive problems of the forwards will be solved by subtraction.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on November 05, 2017, 12:39:51 PM

They've been playing some great teams and the Leafs are a good team, not elite. They're trying, but they're coming up short. Their next ten are against several clubs I would say below them, time to make up some ground. Arizona, Boston, Vegas, Carolina, Montreal and Florida are games they can definitely be competitive in. If you look at the League right now there's a lot of .500 teams, a few elite and a few basement dwellers. It's just a parity league now.

Don't worry, this is really only year two of these young Leafs, last year with all the phenomenal rookie years that was really year one. It takes time to build a winner. A lot of excellent pieces here.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on November 05, 2017, 01:01:59 PM
Something's gotta give here.  I am now genuinely concerned about this team.  They started off great but the league adjusted to them and they have failed to come up with a new game plan.  Sadly, what may happen is that management will trade away some players to try and shake things up.  Maybe JVR for some defense, or even Mitch Marner as some have speculated.  I hope the Leafs can turn things around quickly because I like the team as it is.  They are too good of a team to keep losing like this.

I like their forwards, in general.  The defense is full of holes from top to bottom, and Freddie is a good, but not great, netminder so he is not going to Price them out of their defensive shortcomings.

As a couple of people said post-game, it's time for us to recalibrate our expectations.  That talk about them being SC favorites was pure giddiness.  The team is being exposed, and unless and until they considerably upgrade the defensemen they can't be counted as contenders.  That will not happen this year, and it may take several, if it happens at all.  Some of the defensive problems of the forwards will be solved by subtraction.
Any chance we'll see Liljegren called up before the end of the season?  He's playing extremely well for the Marlies right now.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on November 05, 2017, 01:23:45 PM
Something's gotta give here.  I am now genuinely concerned about this team.  They started off great but the league adjusted to them and they have failed to come up with a new game plan.  Sadly, what may happen is that management will trade away some players to try and shake things up.  Maybe JVR for some defense, or even Mitch Marner as some have speculated.  I hope the Leafs can turn things around quickly because I like the team as it is.  They are too good of a team to keep losing like this.

I like their forwards, in general.  The defense is full of holes from top to bottom, and Freddie is a good, but not great, netminder so he is not going to Price them out of their defensive shortcomings.

As a couple of people said post-game, it's time for us to recalibrate our expectations.  That talk about them being SC favorites was pure giddiness.  The team is being exposed, and unless and until they considerably upgrade the defensemen they can't be counted as contenders.  That will not happen this year, and it may take several, if it happens at all.  Some of the defensive problems of the forwards will be solved by subtraction.
Any chance we'll see Liljegren called up before the end of the season?  He's playing extremely well for the Marlies right now.

It's possible but I doubt it.  He really needs a whole season as a pro in NA, if for nothing else than to learn to deal with the mid- and late-season grind.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on November 05, 2017, 03:48:33 PM
People are freaking out but I think it's fine. The team wasn't as good as that 7-2 start, but they're also not as bad as this recent 1-5 stretch either.  I think they turn it around this week.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on November 05, 2017, 06:46:32 PM
People are freaking out but I think it's fine. The team wasn't as good as that 7-2 start, but they're also not as bad as this recent 1-5 stretch either.  I think they turn it around this week.

Nobody is freaking out.  Speaking for myself, I'm frustrated that the same problems exist, that have existed for years.  Last year, they were masked by Andersen.  Now, they're obvious again because Andersen isn't playing nearly as good.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: skrackle on November 05, 2017, 07:52:26 PM
People are freaking out but I think it's fine. The team wasn't as good as that 7-2 start, but they're also not as bad as this recent 1-5 stretch either.  I think they turn it around this week.

Nobody is freaking out.  Speaking for myself, I'm frustrated that the same problems exist, that have existed for years.  Last year, they were masked by Andersen.  Now, they're obvious again because Andersen isn't playing nearly as good.

I share your frustration to an extent. The last Leaf team that I recall playing consistently good defense was the early Pat Burns era team. The fact that the current team doesn't seem to have a clue lately is mitigated by their youth. The promise of the elite talent the Leafs finally have keeps me interested while they work the bugs out.

I think that it's going to take, I don't know, maybe two more seasons if everything goes well, for the Leafs to develop real structure in their game. It's partly dependent on further successful shaping of the roster because it's not the right mix as it stands.

I don't have much patience for any veterans who can't, don't or won't buy in. I hope they are shown the door.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on November 05, 2017, 11:10:40 PM
People are freaking out but I think it's fine. The team wasn't as good as that 7-2 start, but they're also not as bad as this recent 1-5 stretch either.  I think they turn it around this week.

Nobody is freaking out.  Speaking for myself, I'm frustrated that the same problems exist, that have existed for years.  Last year, they were masked by Andersen.  Now, they're obvious again because Andersen isn't playing nearly as good.
I'm starting to freak out actually.  :o
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on November 06, 2017, 06:35:11 AM
People are freaking out but I think it's fine. The team wasn't as good as that 7-2 start, but they're also not as bad as this recent 1-5 stretch either.  I think they turn it around this week.

Nobody is freaking out.  Speaking for myself, I'm frustrated that the same problems exist, that have existed for years.  Last year, they were masked by Andersen.  Now, they're obvious again because Andersen isn't playing nearly as good.


I don't expect Andersen to stand up on his head this year for all of the remaining games in the season.  He did it last year, and clearly even if he would do so again now, it still won't guarantee a turnaround of the Leafs ship.  True that Andersen seems less consistent somewhat, but it's also true that the Leafs defence is in some ways worse than last season.

I agree with Zee in that the Leafs have a chance to back to a winning stance beginning this week.  None of this will negate what ails this team but at least a bit of positivity in the win column will do well for them...until further notice.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 06, 2017, 12:08:57 PM
This might be trolling or it might be the sheer self-loathing Leafs fans have been conditioned to feel, but I saw one of the worst trade proposals in a long time on twitter this morning from a guy with thousands of followers.

Bozak, JVR, Kapanen and a 1st for RNH

Is it just me or is that absolutely preposterous?

I don't know that I'd do Kapanen and a 1st alone.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Andy on November 06, 2017, 12:20:44 PM
This might be trolling or it might be the sheer self-loathing Leafs fans have been conditioned to feel, but I saw one of the worst trade proposals in a long time on twitter this morning from a guy with thousands of followers.

Bozak, JVR, Kapanen and a 1st for RNH

Is it just me or is that absolutely preposterous?

I don't know that I'd do Kapanen and a 1st alone.

Steve Simmons has thousands of followers??!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on November 06, 2017, 12:30:29 PM
This might be trolling or it might be the sheer self-loathing Leafs fans have been conditioned to feel, but I saw one of the worst trade proposals in a long time on twitter this morning from a guy with thousands of followers.

Bozak, JVR, Kapanen and a 1st for RNH

Is it just me or is that absolutely preposterous?

I don't know that I'd do Kapanen and a 1st alone.

That's a massive overpayment. Like, ridiculously so. Who in their right mind is going to give up that for a 2nd line C?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 06, 2017, 12:33:10 PM
That was exactly my response too and then I started second guessing myself, so I wanted to get the TMLfans take.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on November 06, 2017, 12:37:20 PM
That was exactly my response too and then I started second guessing myself, so I wanted to get the TMLfans take.

I'd say you were spot on. If Edmonton is really interested in moving RNH (I'm not convinced they are) and are looking for depth on the wing (something they should be doing), then maybe something with JvR as the main piece, but no Bozak, and Kapanen unless the Oilers are willing to eat some serious cap on RNH's contract.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on November 06, 2017, 02:16:49 PM
That was exactly my response too and then I started second guessing myself, so I wanted to get the TMLfans take.

It's a ridiculous overpayment.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 06, 2017, 02:29:33 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/11/06/leafs-notebook-adjustments-needed-2-6-stretch-november-6/

Incoming systems changes...
Quote
The coaching staff, theyre like lawyers. Theyre always trying to help you understand and believe their argument. So theyre going to show video. You guys like offence? Heres us making a risky play at the opposing blue line. Theres a turnover. Freeze the frame. Where are you guys? Were backchecking. Are you playing offence while youre backchecking? No. Does anybody like backchecking? Probably not. Versus that same scenario, but you chip it past the opposing D-man with speed. Freeze the frame. Where are we? In the offensive zone. What are we doing? Were cycling. Who prefers backchecking to cycling? Nobody. When it stares you in the face, its hard to deny.
Connor Carrick

Every team is basically 'teched' to defeat/mitigate the top style (Penguins), which is also similar to the one we employ.

There are three ways (so far) to beat the NZ trap:
1) Get lucky and hope someone blows a tire skating backwards

2) Chip and Chase
 - I think a diagonal dump in might work best: defense usually sags to the puck side; a diagonal into the corner keeps it in the corner and doesn't let the goaltender engage; the Leafs go swing F1 in with a good head of steam into that corner and flush the puck back up the boards on the opposite side where the dumper & co were already heading as the defense jukes from one side to the other

3) Super Speed
 - Nylander and Kapanen do this very frequently. Defenders have to respect both their speed and lateral agility so they back off the line, giving them a bit of space to buttonhook at the line and hit linemates in stride.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 07, 2017, 11:47:51 AM
Kapanen has been returned to the Marlies and the Goat has been recalled.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 07, 2017, 12:06:48 PM
Kapanen has been returned to the Marlies and the Goat has been recalled.

Well, I guess if Matthews is out, they'd want a centre.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on November 07, 2017, 12:20:50 PM
Kapanen has been returned to the Marlies and the Goat has been recalled.

Well, I guess if Matthews is out, they'd want a centre.

Or they just want a more flexible option for the 4th line. Put the Goat on Moore's wing instead of Martin, for example . . .
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 07, 2017, 12:37:59 PM
Matthews was absent from practice today because of soreness, which led to these... I guess you can call them "lines":

Komarov-Kadri-Nylander
JVR-Marleau-Hyman
Brown-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Leivo
Gauthier
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 07, 2017, 12:38:31 PM

Hyman: Gotta skate hard. Gotta work hard. Gotta make Babs proud.
Matthews: I got this.
Nylander: tra-la-la-la-la la la la la
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 07, 2017, 12:40:41 PM
Or they just want a more flexible option for the 4th line. Put the Goat on Moore's wing instead of Martin, for example . . .

Jesus, if Babcock finally came to the realization that Martin wasn't an every-day NHLer only to replace him with arguably the 4th or 5th best potential replacement in the organization...
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on November 07, 2017, 01:04:11 PM
Matthews was absent from practice today because of soreness, which led to these... I guess you can call them "lines":

Komarov-Kadri-Nylander
JVR-Marleau-Hyman
Brown-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Leivo
Gauthier
I actually like the defensive balance in those lines. I would play that 4th line approximately 32 seconds though. I want a few games where we give up 3 or less and would be willing to give up a few goals for to do it.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on November 07, 2017, 01:11:25 PM
Anyone else patience running thin with Uncle Leo. I think I resent the embarrassment of us sucking so bad he was considered an all star. I just feel that he has zero finish and don't really notice as much pestering and defensive play of late. Is he still a better fit then some of our available call ups?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on November 07, 2017, 01:12:41 PM
I like Leo, but he should be in Martin's spot and Martin should be in the pressbox.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on November 07, 2017, 01:12:45 PM

Hyman: Gotta skate hard. Gotta work hard. Gotta make Babs proud.
Matthews: I got this.
Nylander: tra-la-la-la-la la la la la
Looks like bad news... all three caught deep.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on November 07, 2017, 01:14:47 PM
I like Leo, but he should be in Martin's spot and Martin should be in the pressbox.
Well I think that's understood that Martin should not be iced. We're all in agreement on that except "the best coach in the world".
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on November 07, 2017, 02:31:42 PM
Or they just want a more flexible option for the 4th line. Put the Goat on Moore's wing instead of Martin, for example . . .

Jesus, if Babcock finally came to the realization that Martin wasn't an every-day NHLer only to replace him with arguably the 4th or 5th best potential replacement in the organization...

Come on, admit it, that would be an epic troll job by Babcock.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on November 07, 2017, 02:33:56 PM
Matthews was absent from practice today because of soreness, which led to these... I guess you can call them "lines":

Komarov-Kadri-Nylander
JVR-Marleau-Hyman
Brown-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Leivo
Gauthier

So, what happened to having Nylander play the top line center position if Matthews was out?  Is it punishment to not give him the shot?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Britishbulldog on November 07, 2017, 02:51:09 PM
Or they just want a more flexible option for the 4th line. Put the Goat on Moore's wing instead of Martin, for example . . .

Jesus, if Babcock finally came to the realization that Martin wasn't an every-day NHLer only to replace him with arguably the 4th or 5th best potential replacement in the organization...
Allah, I know what you mean
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 07, 2017, 03:23:00 PM
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-inside-matt-duchene-kyle-turris-blockbuster/

Quote
23. One coach on Toronto: I know theres a lot of concern about Tyler Bozaks and Mitch Marners confidence, but the guy they really have to fix is Nikita Zaitsev.

Thats true. Zaitsev was a rookie revelation in 2016-17, becoming a critical piece. No Maple Leaf played more than Zaitsev, who was also the only defenceman to play at least 1:30 per game on both the power play and penalty kill. Hes actually up a minute per game so far this season, but is really fighting it as Toronto goes through its first bad stretch. They need him badly.

I don't think Gardiner's current struggles are all on Zaitsev, but they certainly don't help. Zaitsev is having trouble with breakouts (he's not the only one) under the Leafs' adjusted system in the first quarter of the season.

Andersen noted this after the latest game against the Golden Knights, but the defense was clearly having some communication issues during that rough patch.

Quote
Were starting to talk a lot on dump-ins. I think you saw today had a lot of good passes and communication for us. I think one of the only ones we messed up was when they called for it.

I don't think it's a stretch to say Zaitsev is the most susceptible to that particular issue as he's still coming to grips with English and the colloquialisms of the youth/hockey.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 07, 2017, 04:17:05 PM
Fehr has been loaned to San Diego from the Marlies.

A pretty nice move for a veteran.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on November 07, 2017, 05:58:34 PM
Fehr has been loaned to San Diego from the Marlies.

A pretty nice move for a veteran.

Please excuse my ignorance, but why is it a pretty nice move?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 07, 2017, 06:01:19 PM
He was unlikely to see much ice in Toronto and San Diego is an awesome place to live.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on November 07, 2017, 06:03:26 PM
Fehr has been loaned to San Diego from the Marlies.

A pretty nice move for a veteran.

Please excuse my ignorance, but why is it a pretty nice move?

Some people out there incorrectly think that San Diego has nicer weather.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on November 07, 2017, 06:07:52 PM
Or they just want a more flexible option for the 4th line. Put the Goat on Moore's wing instead of Martin, for example . . .

Jesus, if Babcock finally came to the realization that Martin wasn't an every-day NHLer only to replace him with arguably the 4th or 5th best potential replacement in the organization...
Allah, I know what you mean
Buddha doubles up on that action
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 07, 2017, 06:36:01 PM
Pierre LeBrun revealed an interesting note about Soshnikov's contract on TSN's Insider Trading today: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/insider-trading-could-soshnikov-clause-pressure-leafs-to-make-a-move~1252964

He said that Soshnikov has a clause in his contract that allows him to return to the KHL on loan for the remainder of the season if he isn't called up by November 14th. He also said that the Leafs will likely call him up before then to make sure he stays (although it wasn't clear if calling him up for a day and then re-assigning him back to the Marlies after would null that clause). He also noted that Soshnikov is just 3 NHL games played away from requiring waivers.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 07, 2017, 11:31:20 PM
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Seems like a good idea to try to keep this guy.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on November 08, 2017, 12:19:16 AM
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Seems like a good idea to try to keep this guy.

Soshnikov has been the forgotten man in all the leafstalk so far  this season, until now.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 08, 2017, 12:10:10 PM
So remember last year TSN decided the Leafs should trade Nylander?

Well, yesterday Nick Kypreos went on Sportsnet and insisted that the Leafs should trade Marner.

(http://i.imgur.com/JGYSRXf.gif)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on November 08, 2017, 12:14:25 PM
So remember last year TSN decided the Leafs should trade Nylander?

Well, yesterday Nick Kypreos went on Sportsnet and insisted that the Leafs should trade Marner.

(http://i.imgur.com/JGYSRXf.gif)

Maybe a package deal with both Nylander and Marner for two Adam Larssons?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 09, 2017, 08:35:06 AM
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This is pretty surprising to hear. Dominic Moore has scored as many goals as Nylander has. Borgman has more goals than Marner.

Nylander's still on pace for over 60 points so it's not like he's struggling, but he's definitely been snake-bit when it comes to goals.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 09, 2017, 08:41:55 AM
I was just looking up Rielly stats when mr. drag beat me to that too:

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Rielly's on pace for 62 points, which would double last years totals and far eclipse his previous career high of 36. He's also top-5 in points/60 on the PP among defencemen with 35+ minutes on the powerplay. I still can't believe how little time he saw there last season.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on November 09, 2017, 09:39:58 AM
I was just looking up Rielly stats when mr. drag beat me to that too:

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Rielly's on pace for 62 points, which would double last years totals and far eclipse his previous career high of 36. He's also top-5 in points/60 on the PP among defencemen with 35+ minutes on the powerplay. I still can't believe how little time he saw there last season.
Geez surprised by these factual stats but my eyeballs have a hard time agreeing.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on November 09, 2017, 09:46:41 AM
Geez surprised by these factual stats but my eyeballs have a hard time agreeing.

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c7/9f/22/c79f22b7a346042b75bde60cb72761c6.jpg)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on November 09, 2017, 09:53:33 AM
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This is pretty surprising to hear. Dominic Moore has scored as many goals as Nylander has. Borgman has more goals than Marner.

Nylander's still on pace for over 60 points so it's not like he's struggling, but he's definitely been snake-bit when it comes to goals.
Shooting percentages are generally fairly predictable. I am fully confident that that their shooting percentages will balance out and the goals will come. Thank goodness for the depth on the team. As a fantasy hockey junky I like to look at shooting percentages to pluck someone off the waiver wire who is over do or snake bitten.

Hopefully it doesn't last a whole season like 15-16 Kadri who shot at 6.5% versus career average of 11.6%.

My case study is Torey Krug, based on the number of shots he takes and his peers shooting percentages he should be able to score closer to 20 then the under 10 he has been getting.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 09, 2017, 09:56:27 AM
Geez surprised by these factual stats but my eyeballs have a hard time agreeing.

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c7/9f/22/c79f22b7a346042b75bde60cb72761c6.jpg)

Just to add to this, Kyle Dubas gave a good talk about analytics and how your eyes can be liars a lot of the time.

It's an interesting insight from the Leafs AGM, the Marlies GM and the Leafs future GM.

It's approximately 20 minutes long and well worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlVp7xYHc8w&t=675s
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 09, 2017, 10:01:35 AM
Geez surprised by these factual stats but my eyeballs have a hard time agreeing.

I looked at Rielly's stats a little more and found that the +9.6% Corsi Rel stat is for all-situations not just 5-on-5. Not sure if that was a simple mistake on his part or if he meant to use it like that. His Corsi Rel stat at 5-on-5 is 4.36, which is still very good (9th among defencemen with 250 minutes). For those who aren't a fan of relative stats, his raw counts are even better as his 53.64% CF puts him 5th among defencemen with 250 5-on-5 minutes. This is all while still playing difficult minutes (albeit not as difficult as last years)

I know what you mean though, I'm not sure he's playing at the "elite 1D territory" level that was brought up, but I also don't really expect that from him. I was starting to question though whether he was capable of putting up those types of offensive numbers and those types of possession numbers, so I'm very happy to see that.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on November 09, 2017, 10:06:58 AM
Just to add to this, Kyle Dubas gave a good talk about analytics and how your eyes can be liars a lot of the time.

Our eyes and our brains quite literally dumb things down for us. They take in and process way more information than our conscious minds are able to handle, so they only fill that part of our cognitive process in on what it needs for us to be able to understand and react appropriately.

I mean, that's why things like optical illusions exist.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on November 09, 2017, 10:25:40 AM
Just to add to this, Kyle Dubas gave a good talk about analytics and how your eyes can be liars a lot of the time.

Our eyes and our brains quite literally dumb things down for us. They take in and process way more information than our conscious minds are able to handle, so they only fill that part of our cognitive process in on what it needs for us to be able to understand and react appropriately.

I mean, that's why things like optical illusions exist.

Also, there are games where Reilly just seems to want to take over, especially when they are trailing late.  I think he has been better this year than he was last.  The problems in their own zone aren't all on the defense.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on November 09, 2017, 10:39:22 AM
Just to add to this, Kyle Dubas gave a good talk about analytics and how your eyes can be liars a lot of the time.

Our eyes and our brains quite literally dumb things down for us. They take in and process way more information than our conscious minds are able to handle, so they only fill that part of our cognitive process in on what it needs for us to be able to understand and react appropriately.

I mean, that's why things like optical illusions exist.

Also, there are games where Reilly just seems to want to take over, especially when they are trailing late.  I think he has been better this year than he was last.  The problems in their own zone aren't all on the defense.
I had hard time and still do understanding the approach towards him last year. Absolutely deterring any offensive play for the benefit of defensive improvement? After the world cup last year I thought he was going to score up a storm. Did it work? Is he playing more responsible D while contributing offensively? Indications are it did work.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on November 09, 2017, 12:10:13 PM
Geez surprised by these factual stats but my eyeballs have a hard time agreeing.

I looked at Rielly's stats a little more and found that the +9.6% Corsi Rel stat is for all-situations not just 5-on-5. Not sure if that was a simple mistake on his part or if he meant to use it like that. His Corsi Rel stat at 5-on-5 is 4.36, which is still very good (9th among defencemen with 250 minutes). For those who aren't a fan of relative stats, his raw counts are even better as his 53.64% CF puts him 5th among defencemen with 250 5-on-5 minutes. This is all while still playing difficult minutes (albeit not as difficult as last years)

I know what you mean though, I'm not sure he's playing at the "elite 1D territory" level that was brought up, but I also don't really expect that from him. I was starting to question though whether he was capable of putting up those types of offensive numbers and those types of possession numbers, so I'm very happy to see that.

The interesting thing is all of his improvement is coming from asserting himself offensively.  His CA/60 is down slightly (59.9 -> 57.8 ) while his CF/60 is up much more (60.5 -> 66.2).  How much of the CA/60 improvement is simply slightly easier usage or a change in partner I'm not sure.  It certainly looks like he's been more active offensively and I think he's gotta play to that strength.  Ultimately, I don't think he's quite good enough defensively to ever be considered an elite 1D.  However, I think he SHOULD be one of the best offensive defensemen in the league and the point totals are starting to match my expectations.  I get that Babcock wanted him to focus on improving defensively last year, but there is no way I'd ever keep him off a PP.

On the other side of the coin (only showing regulars from both years)

Gardiner's CF/60: 61.4 -> 52.8
Gardiner's CA/60:  56.9 -> 58.2
Zaitsev CF/60: 58.8 -> 54.0
Zaitsev CA/60: 60.5 -> 60.7
Carrick CF/60: 63.2 -> 54.4
Carrick CA/60: 56.0 -> 49.6

No matter who Zaitsev plays with, it seems he's on the ice for alot of shot attempts against.  I've seen some analysis online showing he allows too many controlled entries on his side of the ice.  Gardiner is- to some degree- being dragged down by Zaitsev on the defensive side of the puck. 

Gardiner doesn't look like himself when he has the puck.  He seems to be struggling to move it up ice and its showing in his CF/60.  I don't think Zaitsev is any different than Carrick in terms of offensive ability/transition so I do think Gardiner is just having a rough start to the year.

Carrick has gone from sheltered to heavily sheltered.  Him and Borgman do a pretty good job suppressing offense (but Quality of Competition probably has a bit to do with it- 3rd/4th lines generally generate less).  Offensively I think he's the same as last year- but he doesn't have Gardiner beside him driving play.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 09, 2017, 12:24:09 PM
I think everyone knew Rielly had the skills and wherewithal to rack up points.

I really didn't mind that he was given the two-year training program on defense only. All through junior and under, Rielly was usually the best guy on his side of the ice, and if you watch his highlights, he was basically a 4th forward. He didn't really have to play defense.

If you subscribe to player development being a function of in-game touches with the puck, then it made sense to load him up with those events while the team wasn't expected to require his scoring. Kadri got the same treatment and has since looked quite good.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on November 09, 2017, 02:40:37 PM
Of course, two hours after my post Dom at the Athletic does an even deeper dive, focusing on Gardiner-Zaitsev

https://theathletic.com/151165/2017/11/09/by-the-numbers-why-the-leafs-pair-of-jake-gardiner-and-nikita-zaitsev-is-struggling/

Much of what he states pretty much backs up what I said about Gardiner/Zaitsev:

Quote
Last season, Gardiner was the Leafs best defencemen at moving the puck out of the zone, both with and without control, with an exit percentage of 79.8 per cent and a controlled exit percentage of 40.8 per cent. This year, hes dropped to 70.7 per cent and 32.6 per cent respectively, relatively poor numbers for a premier puck-moving defenceman.
  (Note:  Zaitsev improved in this dept from last year, but he was never a stalwart)

Quote
On the other side of the blue line, Zaitsev was also the Leafs worst defender at defending controlled entries into the zone last season (Gardiner was one of the best) and hes been even worse at that this year. In tracked games, hes allowed a carry-in rate of 81 per cent (!) up from 71 per cent last season. For context to how absurd that number is, Auston Matthewss carry-in percentage this season is also 81 per cent. Gardiners numbers havent changed in this regard, and hes still the Leafs best defender at defending entries and breaking them up.

Quote
Zaitsev has been the hockey equivalent of an automatic door at the blue line, allowing any living soul to gain entry into the Leafs zone with control (teams take more shots when they carry it in as opposed to dumping it in). Once in the zone, Gardiner has had a much tougher time getting the puck out compared to where he was last season.

The rest of the article does into further details regarding how each defensive pairing is doing with different forward lines.  What stands out the most is that Gardiner-Zaitsev is decent with most lines, except for when they've been on the ice with Kadri's line.  They sport a 40% CF, which isn't helped by a ludicrous 28% Zone Start ratio and the fact they are probably out against the oppositions best.  They've been outscored 5-0 together- and that's in pretty limited minutes (only 22% of Gardiner's minutes are with Kadri.  43% is with Matthews).

Anyways, I'm suprised Zaitsev is not improving at breaking up zone entries.  He skates well enough that being more aggressive at the blueline still allows him to recover.  I'm sure having Gardiner on the other side of the ice means the opposition is targeting him even more on zone entries because they have such little luck against Gardiner, but still.  You can skate and your partner is pretty good too- be more aggressive and trust each other.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 09, 2017, 03:19:09 PM
Anyways, I'm suprised Zaitsev is not improving at breaking up zone entries.  He skates well enough that being more aggressive at the blueline still allows him to recover.

I'm not that surprised. He's still clearly adjusting to the North American game (bank angles, NHL attack speed) and it shows in his decision making at the blueline. So he pretty much opts for the 'safe' play of sagging back for fear of getting beaten wide. Rielly hasn't really improved greatly on them either but he's doing better overall this year with Hainsey who is forcing dump-ins and letting Rielly wheel back out with speed.

Unfortunately, letting the attackers over the blueline means they start taking East-West routes that cross Zaitsev and Gardiner up on assignments. Gardiner's also a much better player when in motion and really struggles once they're standing in defensive formation.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 09, 2017, 03:43:30 PM
Gardiner-Carrick
Borgman-Zaitsev

Give them a more equitable share of the zone starts and allow the bottom pair to build a bit more confidence.

Bottom line though is Zaitsev's zone entries aside, the team is shockingly bad at team defense and until they stop cheating for offense they will consistently be nearly men.

When the forwards get lower in the defensive zone and they have consistent structured breakouts, the team's defense will improve and so will the results.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 09, 2017, 05:13:24 PM
Gardiner-Carrick
Borgman-Zaitsev

Give them a more equitable share of the zone starts and allow the bottom pair to build a bit more confidence.

Bottom line though is Zaitsev's zone entries aside, the team is shockingly bad at team defense and until they stop cheating for offense they will consistently be nearly men.

When the forwards get lower in the defensive zone and they have consistent structured breakouts, the team's defense will improve and so will the results.

Funny thing: forwards coming back low in the defensive zone was what caused problems for the Carlyle-Leafs.
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/3/10/11184956/leafs-d-zone-winger-positioning

If you'll recall, Horachek preached moving as a five-man-unit in every zone, and while their shots against went down, their offense dried up.

What Millen noticed in the Leafs blowing the zone early is by design; they're merely not executing well enough. And to a degree, more teams are catching on to what offensive teams are doing (thanks to the Penguins' prominence), so a lot of them have teched against it.

This is what Babcock likes to do with his system:
https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/627042-mike-babcock-explains-why-the-defensive-role-of-wingers-has-had-to-change

This is a bit old now as Babcock has changed things slightly since 3 years ago, but the concept is the same. He uses the wingers to push or pull the area of play to change pace and space.
DZ: Keep it small when you don't have the puck; that way you're defending against 1-2, instead of 4-5.
NZ: Stretch it big in transition so the defenders need to spread out, opening lanes
OZ: Bring it in tight from the walls to the net in cycles (including D)

Blowing the zone 'early' pushes the defense back. Flipping the puck out gives you a chance to track it down (facing forward) while the defense is facing backwards. We're just not doing it well enough yet, and haven't adjusted to some of the defensively oriented counter-attack systems (Boucher).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 09, 2017, 10:06:34 PM
That's a great post herman and I understand most of that, but it's simplistic.

It implies you can play that system all the time, and as we know professional hockey isn't played the same way everytime and in every situation, it's a chess match where you need to be able to adapt in-game.

Teams aren't sleeping on the Leafs anymore and clearly have an excellent pre-scout breakdown on Babcock's Leafs system, so often times they are adapting to a trap type system that nullifies the long bomb if you try for it constantly.

The way the Leafs need to adapt is to get at least one forward back to give the dmen an angled out at all times, Marleau hinted at this today in his interview.

The system the Leafs have in transition involves F1 coming with speed through the neutral zone to get the tip/apply pressure on the opposition Dmen going back to get the tip by Leafs F2 who has received some kind of long bomb from D1 or D2.

Part of the problem as I see it is often the guy who is F3 is competing with F1 because he wants to get in on offense and be the guy applying pressure, when in reality F3 needs to be closer to the dmen to provide support and an out when they are forechecked aggressively, at this point he can still pass to F2 for a tip.

Currently the Leafs D are often being left alone deep in the D zone without a skating route out or an easy outlet pass.

It's pretty basic cheating for offense or just not being switched on defensively when the opposition presents you with a roadblock that you need to play through.

When commentators/analysts often talk loosly about the cliche of "they found a way to win" the detailed version of that cliche is that they usually adjusted their system/tried another system when the opposition initially had their number.

The whole work hard, do the right thing, be a good pro is Babcock dumbed down media speak, don't believe for a second that the Leafs only know one system to play and they need to get better at adapting/executing.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 09, 2017, 10:50:29 PM
-snip-

Fantastic observations. They certainly can't play the 'system' every moment, just like forwards can't always be in their assigned lanes of attack. The way the Leafs play is harder to learn because everyone is basically playing their assigned role + two other potential options based on where they are relative to the puck. It's why we saw last year, and continue to see this year, missed assignments when the puck moves East/West in our zone.

For reference, this is the Marleau post-practice interview WIGWAL mentioned.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OivUohFUQYU
Such a strong Coach Taylor vibe.

Marleau is talking about the difference between playing wing and centre, and how the centre's responsibility is to be that support forward for both the defense (as an easy outlet) and the wingers in supporting the attack and bail out turnovers.

While they're already adjusting, the reasons I believe they are largely sticking with it at the moment:
1) When it works, it's worth it. Plays all over the ice become isolated battles where talent can stack the probabilities in our favour. The main problem is sloppy execution/mental stuff in the plays that cause us to have to break out more often: taking loops instead of stop/starts, fringing puck battles rather than asserting position, etc.

2) The Leafs want to dictate play and force the other team to adjust (and they are). Their style gives up chances by design in order to gain more attempts at net, where their prodigious shooting talent should swing the pendulum in their favour over the long run.

3) We've got a lot of UFAs. There's some natural selection happening and coaching staff's priority is building the program, not doing whatever it takes to win exactly right now.

4) There's a window of opportunity in the schedule coming up to do some of the adjustment work, and plenty of video fuel to bring to bear on the problem.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: TML fan on November 09, 2017, 11:33:58 PM
These last 3 posts were gold. Great stuff guys!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on November 10, 2017, 05:57:26 AM
Excellent article outlining the why and the how of Kadri's importance to the team during Matthews' absence:


- shooting percentage 20.4%
- possession #s at 51%
- highest defensive zone starts of any Leaf (107 5v5)
- is sixth in league scoring (9 goals, one behind fifth-place Matthews, and five behind first-place Kutcherov)
- had 12 PP goals (in 2016-'17) eighth in league
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 10, 2017, 08:46:58 AM
While they're already adjusting, the reasons I believe they are largely sticking with it at the moment:
1) When it works, it's worth it. Plays all over the ice become isolated battles where talent can stack the probabilities in our favour. The main problem is sloppy execution/mental stuff in the plays that cause us to have to break out more often: taking loops instead of stop/starts, fringing puck battles rather than asserting position, etc.

2) The Leafs want to dictate play and force the other team to adjust (and they are). Their style gives up chances by design in order to gain more attempts at net, where their prodigious shooting talent should swing the pendulum in their favour over the long run.

3) We've got a lot of UFAs. There's some natural selection happening and coaching staff's priority is building the program, not doing whatever it takes to win exactly right now.

4) There's a window of opportunity in the schedule coming up to do some of the adjustment work, and plenty of video fuel to bring to bear on the problem.

I'll watch with interest tonight, I hope you're right and I certainly understand the reasons they are trying to do what they are doing, thanks for outlining it though because it definitely helps to galvanize those ideas for me.

They've lost six of the last ten though, they've not necessarily executed on their system in the four victories either and teams have largely figured them out.

I don't think they are in a position to keep trying what is not working.

It's okay to say that the players just aren't executing, but when it happens over a long stretch like this and you're consistently being presented with the same counter-system by the opposition, surely the smart money is in adapting on-the-fly to find a way to win?

I understand what you're saying about Babcock not necessarily being interested in just winning at all costs, but I think there is room between playing a boring trap (winning at all costs) and continuing with the current system with a tweak that gives the dmen more support and an easier out.

I hope as you mentioned that they can iron things out over this little break they have coming up.

Oh and thanks TMLfan, herman has an excellent eye for this stuff!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 10, 2017, 09:29:35 AM
I'll watch with interest tonight, I hope you're right and I certainly understand the reasons they are trying to do what they are doing, thanks for outlining it though because it definitely helps to galvanize those ideas for me.

They've lost six of the last ten though, they've not necessarily executed on their system in the four victories either and teams have largely figured them out.

I don't think they are in a position to keep trying what is not working.

It's okay to say that the players just aren't executing, but when it happens over a long stretch like this and you're consistently being presented with the same counter-system by the opposition, surely the smart money is in adapting on-the-fly to find a way to win?

I understand what you're saying about Babcock not necessarily being interested in just winning at all costs, but I think there is room between playing a boring trap (winning at all costs) and continuing with the current system with a tweak that gives the dmen more support and an easier out.

I hope as you mentioned that they can iron things out over this little break they have coming up.

Oh and thanks TMLfan, herman has an excellent eye for this stuff!

Thanks guys! As I am largely shooting from the hip here with subjective observational analysis (even though eyes are lyin' sons of bees), so I too hope that a lot of that bears out  8) I'll dig through the numbers over the weekend when I've got more actual time.

I agree with your point that adjustment is needed after getting somewhat easily derailed by the NZ trap that many of the teams without the offensive horses employ. In a good chunk of those games referenced, we had to eat trap because early turnovers ended up in the back of the net, so is it worth while to tweak the system (i.e. get 9-12 players to do something different in a handful of scenarios) during a road trip on jet lag, or lean into executing what they should have been doing in the first place?

What they have cleaned up nicely are the OZ turnovers where a winger finally gets through, and just to feel a sense of accomplishment, fires a wrister from the half boards with no traffic. No Soshnikov helps with that, plus he's working it out of his game with the Marlies.

Defenders are playing Marner like a shorthop in baseball now. Before they didn't have enough of a book on him and were scared into backing off his razzle dazzle, which opened up room for JvR and Bozak to capitalize. Now they just 'smother the bounce'. No room, no play, Bozak and JvR take the long trip back to standing around in the DZ. That's an adjustment we can make in supporting Marner's forays (a quick bump back to a player with speed following up), which would open up our attack balance.

Hyman's not barreling into 2 D and the crease on his drives as much anymore (that Marleau play was beautiful communication, and Marleau stopping up in soft coverage) is a great adjustment (as Coco pointed out yesterday). Shooting from a bit farther out is also normalizing his shooting percentage and he's on pace for 19 (!) goals.

Nylander was feeling rather tentative about getting into prime scoring areas. He did it early in the season and had minimal results, and wasn't attacking as deep lately. He's picked it back up the past two games, curling deeper in the OZ off his auto-entries to get the defense to cover a wider range of options.

I also have lots of thoughts about our PP1 vs PP2 that I'll get into after I actually do some work.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 10, 2017, 10:38:55 AM
Mason Marchment starting off pretty well with the Marlies...undrafted 22 year old has 11 points in 10 games.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 10, 2017, 03:26:13 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/11/10/morgan-rielly-strong-first-quarter/

This is good.

Nested in there is this link (http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nhl/70407/483/hockey-analytics) that, to me, sheds a bit of light on why Zaitsev is playing a different game now than he did in the KHL.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 10, 2017, 04:38:10 PM
On the flip side: What's Up with Jake?
https://theathletic.com/149485/2017/11/10/dellow-trouble-in-the-work-zone-means-not-enough-time-in-the-fun-zone-for-jake-gardiner/

I mentioned this up thread (http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4599.msg308114#msg308114): Getting crossed up with Zaitsev on East-West plays in the DZ = ruh roh.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 12, 2017, 12:41:13 PM
After all the doom and gloom from a week ago, the Leafs are still 4th in the East in points percentage.

Rielly and Kadri are on pace for 69 points. JVR's on pace for 41 goals and 68 points (which is pretty insane actually considering he's playing less than 14 minutes a night). Matthews was on pace for 50 goals and 97 points pre-injury. Old Man Marleau, who many wondering if he would even score 20 goals, is on pace for 34.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on November 12, 2017, 01:43:20 PM
After all the doom and gloom from a week ago, the Leafs are still 4th in the East in points percentage.

Rielly and Kadri are on pace for 69 points. JVR's on pace for 41 goals and 68 points (which is pretty insane actually considering he's playing less than 14 minutes a night). Matthews was on pace for 50 goals and 97 points pre-injury. Old Man Marleau, who many wondering if he would even score 20 goals, is on pace for 34.

And while it took a bit of a boost from Marner over two games it's interesting that somewhat disappointing seasons from both Marner/Nylander as 2nd year pros are still on pace for 56 points.  It really doesn't feel like we have seen the best of either of them yet (although Nylander has certainly had better stretches than Marner). 

Last year after 19 games the Leafs were 8-8-3 (8 ROW, 19 points).  This year they are 12-7-0 (11 ROW, 24 points).  I'll take that from a team that really hasn't played their best/most consistent hockey yet.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 13, 2017, 09:21:20 AM
So continuing on from our discussion about the Leafs stretched breakout failing for a couple of weeks, they've tightened it up the past week while Matthews has been out, and found ways to win mostly through pouncing on mistakes (a la Penguins 2017 playoffs) rather than overwhelming wave after wave of chances through depth (a la 2016-17 Penguins regular season) and also getting improved goaltending.

They've cut back on the long pass, and instead, kept the centre in the swing position tighter to the D, as WIGWAL suggested. Wingers don't even go up to the blue line anymore, as they stop just past the red line for tip-ins. They're maintaining better numerical advantages in the NZ as a result, so there aren't as many odd-man rushes coming back. By the same token, they're also not really generating anything interesting unless their opponent makes an error (Marner thanks you, Brandon Carlo) or takes a penalty.

Watch Rielly's goal (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6u5w4ABZe6Y) from Saturday:
- Boston screws up a line change and gives us a temporary power play; Leafs, with a solid 5-man breakout, ID the weak-side immediately and attack the right, unsupported lane
- Marner's low-percentage and contested cross-ice pass is deflected oddly right to JvR on the opposite halfwall; JvR smartly bumps to Rielly
- Rielly shoots for a rebound with a nice low wrister (hoping for the kick out to Marner who is in good position to pounce)
- Rielly gets a maze of Bruins legs and sticks instead as all 5 of them scramble to compensate from the earlier miscommunication and unlucky bounce
- Who doesn't this puck hit before beating Rask? Zero Leaf screens/tips.
- This goal is brought to you by one good Leafs play (breakout), one Boston mistake, and literally every hockey god smiling upon Rielly

GameResultGFGAShots ForShots AgainstEven CF%SV%SH%PDO
VGKW-SO33252845.50.893121.013
MINW42193741.50.94621.11.157
BOSW-OT32333551.60.9439.11.034
@BOSW41253941.60.974161.134

Courtesy of hockey-reference (https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/TOR/2018_games.html).

The wins are nice, because points in the bank are points in the bank, but if we're looking at the measures that usually carry a team to sustained success, it's not as pretty as the 4-0 record suggests. It really helped that we faced a couple of pop-gun attacks in MIN and BOS (they shot 2% on Saturday, and made McElhinney look like an All-Star).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on November 13, 2017, 09:31:58 AM
I like that they have been using the flip pass/high clear a little more too.  Gets the defenders moving backwards and still lets the forwards attack with speed.  We have enough players who are good at winning open ice puck battles because of their stick handling ability so those neutral zone "forecheck" situations are going to end up in the Leafs favour overall.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 13, 2017, 11:22:45 AM

4 days with no games, so it's not really a huge deal.

Today's practice was missing Matthews, Nylander (who got stapled pretty hard to the boards by Chara), and Bozak (who has had back/pelvis problems all of last season).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: LuncheonMeat on November 13, 2017, 11:32:24 AM

4 days with no games, so it's not really a huge deal.

Today's practice was missing Matthews, Nylander (who got stapled pretty hard to the boards by Chara), and Bozak (who has had back/pelvis problems all of last season).

I'm dying to get a look at Polak on Kadri's wing.  :D
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on November 13, 2017, 12:18:56 PM

4 days with no games, so it's not really a huge deal.

Today's practice was missing Matthews, Nylander (who got stapled pretty hard to the boards by Chara), and Bozak (who has had back/pelvis problems all of last season).

I'm dying to get a look at Polak on Kadri's wing.  :D

Me too, especially given how well Kaberle played when they converted him to forward.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 13, 2017, 12:41:09 PM
Me too, especially given how well Kaberle played when they converted him to forward.

Obviously the "let's convert this guy to another position" stuff is silly and we always have fun with it, but I do legitimately think Polak would probably make for a better 4th line forward than defenceman (which isn't exactly saying much).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Dappleganger on November 13, 2017, 12:44:12 PM
Me too, especially given how well Kaberle played when they converted him to forward.

Obviously the "let's convert this guy to another position" stuff is silly and we always have fun with it, but I do legitimately think Polak would probably make for a better 4th line forward than defenceman (which isn't exactly saying much).

Everyone knows, if you're a good defenseman, you'll be an even better forward. Forward is easier to play, right?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on November 13, 2017, 12:47:03 PM
Obviously the "let's convert this guy to another position" stuff is silly and we always have fun with it, but I do legitimately think Polak would probably make for a better 4th line forward than defenceman (which isn't exactly saying much).

I'm not so sure. Being a forward requires more skating/playing with the puck - and he's no good at that.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 13, 2017, 01:05:04 PM
I'm not so sure. Being a forward requires more skating/playing with the puck - and he's no good at that.

Pre-injury, he wasn't the worst skater. He could go in a straight line pretty good, at least for somebody of his size. I'd see him as a poor (poor, poor, poor) man's Zach Hyman. I'd imagine he could forecheck well and cause some loose puck opportunities for his better linemates to pick up on.

I mean I sure wouldn't want him on my teams 4th line, but if you were looking for somebody with size for a 4th line I'm sure some teams have worse players out there.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 13, 2017, 01:06:46 PM

Babcock also said Matthews skated before practice today, will skate again tomorrow, and the plan is to have him practice with the team on Wednesday.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: LuncheonMeat on November 13, 2017, 01:13:57 PM
I'm not so sure. Being a forward requires more skating/playing with the puck - and he's no good at that.

Pre-injury, he wasn't the worst skater. He could go in a straight line pretty good, at least for somebody of his size. I'd see him as a poor (poor, poor, poor) man's Zach Hyman. I'd imagine he could forecheck well and cause some loose puck opportunities for his better linemates to pick up on.

I mean I sure wouldn't want him on my teams 4th line, but if you were looking for somebody with size for a 4th line I'm sure some teams have worse players out there.

I would be a little frightened as a defender on a dump-in knowing that Polak was coming in to retrieve it. But other than his ability to separate your head from your body, his skill level isn't very intimidating.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 13, 2017, 01:55:13 PM
I'm going to miss Leo.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 14, 2017, 08:53:19 AM
November 14th ladies and gentlemen! It's officially SOSHNIKOV day!

... although even if the Leafs don't call him up my money is on him staying anyway.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 14, 2017, 09:09:24 AM

For what it's worth, his agent has said on record that they are not pursuing any KHL deals and that Soshnikov wants to be in the NHL with the Leafs.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 14, 2017, 09:49:09 AM
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 14, 2017, 09:52:08 AM

This is what I was curious about because nobody really expanded on it before. I thought it would have been weird if all the Leafs had to do was call him up and then send him back down the next day to void that clause.

Sosh is 3 games played away from being waiver-eligible too.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on November 14, 2017, 09:55:31 AM
https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2017/11/13/maple-leafs-less-fun-post-burke-in-a-good-way-cox.html (https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2017/11/13/maple-leafs-less-fun-post-burke-in-a-good-way-cox.html)
Geez... reminds me of a line from my daughters favorite movie, "let it go, let it gooo!". Finishing second last with no 1st or 2nd round picks in the current draft and no 1st round pick in the following draft is all on him. I don't believe the media wanted him to fail. Quit the whining.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Can8899 on November 14, 2017, 10:56:00 AM


The wording is weird here.  He can "request" a loan but do the Leafs have to comply?  I would assume so if they were forced to call him up.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on November 14, 2017, 11:17:31 AM
It's weird not having a Leafs game on my schedule for a few days.  I feel...so.............empty.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: cabber24 on November 14, 2017, 12:13:37 PM
It's weird not having a Leafs game on my schedule for a few days.  I feel...so.............empty.
Considering Matthews health it's perfect timing for a break. I do wish it was in stone Tues, Thurs, Saturday.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 14, 2017, 01:58:46 PM
If Matthews returns (he will), it'll put both Josh and Sosh in the pressbox, i.e. two players on the roster that are better options than Matt Martin, rather than just one.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 14, 2017, 05:36:23 PM
If Matthews returns (he will), it'll put both Josh and Sosh in the pressbox, i.e. two players on the roster that are better options than Matt Martin, rather than just one.

Somebody post that gif of the beating of the dead horse.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on November 14, 2017, 05:42:38 PM
If Matthews returns (he will), it'll put both Josh and Sosh in the pressbox, i.e. two players on the roster that are better options than Matt Martin, rather than just one.

Somebody post that gif of the beating of the dead horse.

Nope.

(http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/ff/ffa1e089b8328988dde39800fc003bca6a6d488d32e64900b2f7791d70b967e4.jpg)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 14, 2017, 08:18:18 PM
I was going to write about the Powerplay this week during the break, but Leafs Geek Podcast got Gus Katsaros on to talk about exactly that, so now I don't know what to do with my life.

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/11/14/leafs-geeks-podcast-pp-analysis-with-gus-katsaros/
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 14, 2017, 09:13:51 PM
TIL: the Leafs have a fantasy football league.
TIAL: the one participant who is not currently a Leaf is Cody Franson.

https://theathletic.com/154543/2017/11/14/poor-drafting-collusion-and-one-vocal-rookie-gm-inside-the-leafs-fantasy-football-league/
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on November 15, 2017, 10:37:51 AM
Chart (from Hockey Viz) showing the Leafs taking most of their shots up close.

(https://imageshack.com/i/pm16daYAp)

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 15, 2017, 11:11:06 AM

Back to our regular lines.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on November 15, 2017, 11:51:47 AM
This has absolutely nothing directly to do with this thread but I am going to post the link here for 2 reasons:

1.  Leafs fans can relate to the Apocalypse stuff
2.  It reminds us of Renberg's crack about diving being like Italian soccer

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/world/europe/italy-world-cup.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/world/europe/italy-world-cup.html)

The Ikea joke is priceless.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on November 15, 2017, 01:34:16 PM
This has absolutely nothing directly to do with this thread but I am going to post the link here for 2 reasons:

1.  Leafs fans can relate to the Apocalypse stuff
2.  It reminds us of Renberg's crack about diving being like Italian soccer

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/world/europe/italy-world-cup.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/world/europe/italy-world-cup.html)

The Ikea joke is priceless.
Know this is not the place, but one cannot help to think that the Atomic Ant may have been useful to that team.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on November 15, 2017, 01:37:26 PM
Must... have... Leafs hockey... can't... Auston... losing... will... Matthews...
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 15, 2017, 01:49:46 PM
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-carey-price-canadiens-page/

More on Rielly's gamechanger:
Quote
Nineteen games into the season, Morgan Rielly has 16 points almost halfway to his career high of 36. One reason? Hes given up the slap shot.

I just want to get [the puck] through, he said last week. The slap shot takes too long.

Then he imitated one at his stall.

When you start coming down, you cant adjust. I like to be able to change what Im doing.

Ive counted at least five assists off shots he got through defenders from the point. Rielly added he worked on an Erik Karlsson-style half-slapper, because he can adjust that move.

Quote
20. Another coach understood completely why Mike Babcock kept William Nylander on the wing when Matthews was injured, rather than moving him to centre: Nylander is excellent at hiding. He knows how to get lost and find the holes in a defence. Very dangerous. At centre, its much harder to hide.

William Nylander: Milford man.
(http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/arresteddevelopment/images/2/27/1x11_Public_Relations_%2827%29.png/revision/latest?cb=20120408205114)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on November 15, 2017, 03:08:08 PM
I was going to write about the Powerplay this week during the break, but Leafs Geek Podcast got Gus Katsaros on to talk about exactly that, so now I don't know what to do with my life.

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/11/14/leafs-geeks-podcast-pp-analysis-with-gus-katsaros/

And now Dellow comes with the thunder... you have absolutely nothing left to say.

https://theathletic.com/155800/2017/11/15/dellow-maple-leafs-in-a-whole-different-league-than-rest-of-the-nhl-on-the-power-play/

TL;DR version
- Shortest average shot distance in a decade as a team (over 2 ft shorter than the best team in the last decade)
- PP1 with JvR-Bozak-Marner-Kadri-Rielly:
Quote
scoring 14.9 GF/60. The average 4F1D is scoring something like 7.5 GF/60. So that's pretty good. The shot volume they're generating is nuts: both 86.2 SF/60 and 144.2 CF/60 are wild numbers.
Quote
Rielly's share of the shot attempts isn't particularly low. It's about average for a 4F1D, which makes the low shot distance all the more remarkable.
Quote
21.5 rebounds per 60 and rebound percentage of 30.2 per cent.  That 30.2 per cent leads the NHL amongst five-man units that have been on the ice for at least 20 saved shots. Only four such groups are above 20 per cent.
Quote
Toronto's PP1 is ... producing rebound volumes like we haven't seen this decade and producing goals at a phenomenal level. When you watch the video of some of the goals they've scored, you just see the same things happening over and over. Find a way to get a rebound. Collapse to the net. Win the battle.


BTW, alot of what was discussed in Dellow's piece is also described on the podcast.  While they are in a 1-3-1 formation, they are essentially just trying to create an overload situation at the net.  Get it on net and bang in rebounds.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 15, 2017, 03:23:32 PM
Like seriously, they just broke my Mjolnir.

I know I've talked about exactly those things the last year, just without numbers, and the defensemen being used as blue line bumpers for recycling opportunities, rather than low percentage slappers.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 15, 2017, 04:01:42 PM
Sounds unsustainable, no?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 15, 2017, 04:10:15 PM
Sounds unsustainable, no?

They've done it two years straight... mostly with players we're already casting off the team.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 15, 2017, 04:18:37 PM
Sounds unsustainable, no?

They've done it two years straight... mostly with players we're already casting off the team.

Fair enough, I didn't/can't read the article, but today our PP% sits at 6th in the league.

So I'm not sure you'd say they're "producing goals at a phenomenal record"...sounds more like cherry picking certain stats to try and exaggerate the PP's overall effectiveness. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on November 15, 2017, 04:24:40 PM
Sounds unsustainable, no?

They've done it two years straight... mostly with players we're already casting off the team.

Well, had great results on the PP yes (I think they were 2nd in the NHL).  Not quite these results last year though.  Is it sustainable- depends on what part you are talking about.  Can they continue to generate that many shots, rebounds, etc from in close?  Maybe.  Philly's top PP unit last year had something crazy like 130 CF/60.  If they do, then yeah, maybe the scoring will remain sustainable if they keep shooting from so close.  Otherwise, a dip in attempts will surely lead to a dip in GF/60.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 15, 2017, 04:30:02 PM
Sounds unsustainable, no?

They've done it two years straight... mostly with players we're already casting off the team.

Well, had great results on the PP yes (I think they were 2nd in the NHL).  Not quite these results last year though.  Is it sustainable- depends on what part you are talking about.  Can they continue to generate that many shots, rebounds, etc from in close?  Maybe.  Philly's top PP unit last year had something crazy like 130 CF/60.  If they do, then yeah, maybe the scoring will remain sustainable if they keep shooting from so close.  Otherwise, a dip in attempts will surely lead to a dip in GF/60.

The only thing that might keep them from continuing to generate like this is getting stymied at the blue line and not getting set up on time. The rest of PP1's strategy is not really stoppable.

And right now, PP2 hasn't really got going yet. The theory behind their strategy is the same, but the methodology is almost completely different.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on November 15, 2017, 04:35:12 PM
Sounds unsustainable, no?

They've done it two years straight... mostly with players we're already casting off the team.

Fair enough, I didn't/can't read the article, but today our PP% sits at 6th in the league.

So I'm not sure you'd say they're "producing goals at a phenomenal record"...sounds more like cherry picking certain stats to try and exaggerate the PP's overall effectiveness.

The team overall is 6th in the league.  The Kadri unit has most of their success though (10 PP goals).  The article specifically talks about how the Kadri unit is "producing goals at a phenomenal record".

The Matthews unit has 4 PP goals, with almost the same icetime.  The reason why they don't have as many goals, despite having an avg shot distance that's actually closer than the Kadri unit?  73.7 CF/60 and 45.5 SF/60.  They aren't generating enough- and I think much of that problem is they aren't getting set up in the zone quite as often (and starting their PP shifts on the fly)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 15, 2017, 05:19:08 PM
Sounds unsustainable, no?

They've done it two years straight... mostly with players we're already casting off the team.

Fair enough, I didn't/can't read the article, but today our PP% sits at 6th in the league.

So I'm not sure you'd say they're "producing goals at a phenomenal record"...sounds more like cherry picking certain stats to try and exaggerate the PP's overall effectiveness.

The team overall is 6th in the league.  The Kadri unit has most of their success though (10 PP goals).  The article specifically talks about how the Kadri unit is "producing goals at a phenomenal record".

The Matthews unit has 4 PP goals, with almost the same icetime.  The reason why they don't have as many goals, despite having an avg shot distance that's actually closer than the Kadri unit?  73.7 CF/60 and 45.5 SF/60.  They aren't generating enough- and I think much of that problem is they aren't getting set up in the zone quite as often (and starting their PP shifts on the fly)

Ahh...I stand corrected then.

What is the stated PP% of the Kadri unit?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on November 15, 2017, 05:37:18 PM
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 17, 2017, 11:21:03 AM
With eyes on tomorrow night...

Drouin, Patches and Benn are all out of practice today for the Habs with the flu.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 17, 2017, 11:33:17 AM
With eyes on tomorrow night...

Drouin, Patches and Benn are all out of practice today for the Habs with the flu.

I don't know about you, but whenever this sort of stuff happens, it seems the Leafs lose.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 17, 2017, 11:42:17 AM
Lines from practice.

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Komarov
van Riemsdyk-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Brown
Sosh, Leivo

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Borgman-Carrick
Polak
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on November 17, 2017, 01:40:39 PM
At what point do we fans become concerned with the slumping possession numbers?  If they stay that way after Matthews comes back?  Right now I have a hard time distinguishing what is happening now from what happened during the Kessel years.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 17, 2017, 01:52:26 PM
At what point do we fans become concerned with the slumping possession numbers?  If they stay that way after Matthews comes back?  Right now I have a hard time distinguishing what is happening now from what happened during the Kessel years.

Corsi is a proxy for possession, but not necessarily a proxy for how dangerous a team is (see LA Kings last season).

Case in point last Saturday's game vs. Boston, when they shelled us for a bajillion chances and McElhinney stood tall. Watch those shots again, and you'll see McElhinney just playing like a goalie is expected to, and Boston just firing it into the crest or pads from not that close in.

So the similarities with Carlyle's Leafs are that giving up lots of shots, but trying to keep them all to the outside. The Leafs right now are similarly letting some shots attempts through, but largely making sure they're not strenuous to save (a lot fewer rebound efforts lately).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on November 17, 2017, 01:59:49 PM
At what point do we fans become concerned with the slumping possession numbers?  If they stay that way after Matthews comes back?  Right now I have a hard time distinguishing what is happening now from what happened during the Kessel years.

Corsi is a proxy for possession, but not necessarily a proxy for how dangerous a team is (see LA Kings last season).

Case in point last Saturday's game vs. Boston, when they shelled us for a bajillion chances and McElhinney stood tall. Watch those shots again, and you'll see McElhinney just playing like a goalie is expected to, and Boston just firing it into the crest or pads from not that close in.

So the similarities with Carlyle's Leafs are that giving up lots of shots, but trying to keep them all to the outside. The Leafs right now are similarly letting some shots attempts through, but largely making sure they're not strenuous to save (a lot fewer rebound efforts lately).

Also, in two of the last 3 games, they were awfully close to 50% at even-strength - which, while not great, also isn't bad considering they've been without their best forward. They're allowing the puck to their goalie more than they're getting it to the other team's goalie, but they're putting roughly the same amount of pucks towards the net - and that's a huge difference from the Carlyle era.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on November 17, 2017, 02:18:42 PM
At what point do we fans become concerned with the slumping possession numbers?  If they stay that way after Matthews comes back?  Right now I have a hard time distinguishing what is happening now from what happened during the Kessel years.

Corsi is a proxy for possession, but not necessarily a proxy for how dangerous a team is (see LA Kings last season).

Case in point last Saturday's game vs. Boston, when they shelled us for a bajillion chances and McElhinney stood tall. Watch those shots again, and you'll see McElhinney just playing like a goalie is expected to, and Boston just firing it into the crest or pads from not that close in.

So the similarities with Carlyle's Leafs are that giving up lots of shots, but trying to keep them all to the outside. The Leafs right now are similarly letting some shots attempts through, but largely making sure they're not strenuous to save (a lot fewer rebound efforts lately).

I trust what you are saying Herman, but I remember that being something that the team would point to during the Carlyle years as well.  They would say stuff like "We give up a lot of shots, but we are keeping them to the outside". 

Now that may have just been something that the coaching staff were saying to keep fans happy so maybe it isn't really relevant in this case.  I just wonder how much Matthews contributes to their positive possession metrics over the last couple of years (for example that Chicago game were he was in the 70's against the Kane line).  Even still, the first year Babcock was here, their numbers were good, they just couldn't score.  Now that it seems they can score, it feels like those numbers are starting to tank again.  Also even early in the year, they seemed to be on the positive side of the shot count more often than not.   

Anyways, it may just be an anomaly, but it is something that has been going on in this recent ten game set.  Just seeing if I need to prepare myself for 18 wheeler time.

*EDIT*
Funny just found this:

http://www.tsn.ca/video/without-matthews-leafs-have-been-outshot-in-key-areas-2-1~1263821
Title: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 17, 2017, 03:05:24 PM
Leivo signs a one year extension ending UFA fears.

925k

Do they try and squeeze him through waivers?

Teams might be put off by the extra year?

Probably not.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on November 18, 2017, 05:49:33 AM
While we're all churning the pot of doom and gloom even though the Leafs are on a winning streak, there is a story in numbers, and if it is to be believed, then the question becomes the why & the how.

The link below here attempts to answer the above.  Hint: Connor Brown has highest team minutes in a defensive role; shifting Marleau between Hyman & Brown and placing Nylander with Kadri & Komarov gives Babcock plenty of line fluidity.  Marleau, in Matthews' absence has been the best 5v5 Leaf forward.

While we all know how the Leafs are winning is in all probability non-sustainable, there is another reason.  Name?  Frederik Andersen, goaltender with the best save % in the league right now (during the course of this Leafs winning streak).

Check out Mirtle's review:
https://theathletic.com/158076/2017/11/17/mirtle-why-the-maple-leafs-are-undefeated-without-auston-matthews/ (https://theathletic.com/158076/2017/11/17/mirtle-why-the-maple-leafs-are-undefeated-without-auston-matthews/)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on November 21, 2017, 07:27:36 AM
Leafs' quarter mark report cards:

A+ Matthews;  A- Kadri;  A Brown;  A Martin;  A+ Hainsey;  A Reilly

B+ Hyman;  B+ Marleau;  B JVR;  B Nylander;  B- Marner;  B+ Borgman;
B Carrick; B- Andersen

C Bozak;  C Komarov;  C Moore;  C Gardiner;  C Zaltsev;  C+ McElhinney


B Babcock;  A Shanahan/Lamoriello & co.(Leafs' management)


https://theathletic.com/160385/2017/11/20/mirtle-the-maple-leafs-get-their-quarter-season-report-cards/ (https://theathletic.com/160385/2017/11/20/mirtle-the-maple-leafs-get-their-quarter-season-report-cards/)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on November 21, 2017, 05:12:43 PM
How the Leafs stack up in the eyes of the people:  (user's of the report card section of The Athletic app)

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Deebo on November 23, 2017, 02:19:38 PM
@jonassiegel
Babcock confirms that Martin is healthy. Stands to be a healthy scratch Friday for the first time as a Leaf.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on November 23, 2017, 02:26:22 PM
@jonassiegel
Babcock confirms that Martin is healthy. Stands to be a healthy scratch Friday for the first time as a Leaf.

What the!?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 23, 2017, 02:27:04 PM
@jonassiegel
Babcock confirms that Martin is healthy. Stands to be a healthy scratch Friday for the first time as a Leaf.

Sound the celebration alarm! Babcock has caught up to the boards from last year! Numfar! Do the dance of joy! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycFqzNxiTwY)
 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on November 23, 2017, 02:34:09 PM
@jonassiegel
Babcock confirms that Martin is healthy. Stands to be a healthy scratch Friday for the first time as a Leaf.

Sound the celebration alarm! Babcock has caught up to the boards from last year! Numfar! Do the dance of joy! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycFqzNxiTwY)
 

I'm pretty sure Herman has kidnapped Mike Babcock and taken his place.  That's why he was so snippy to those reporters about the lines question.  It was really Herman, who was afraid of being found out.  (psst Herman, move Nylander to centre).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 23, 2017, 02:35:18 PM
It's gonna be great when he changes his mind and plays Martin anyway on Friday.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 23, 2017, 02:44:13 PM

Josh Leivo:

(https://media.giphy.com/media/qmfpjpAT2fJRK/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 23, 2017, 02:49:33 PM
I'm pretty sure Herman has kidnapped Mike Babcock and taken his place.  That's why he was so snippy to those reporters about the lines question.  It was really Herman, who was afraid of being found out.  (psst Herman, move Nylander to centre).

When have I ever been snippy*?  ;D

* not counting that time I ran down the hall with scissors on each hand
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: LuncheonMeat on November 23, 2017, 03:15:07 PM
@jonassiegel
Babcock confirms that Martin is healthy. Stands to be a healthy scratch Friday for the first time as a Leaf.

Sound the celebration alarm! Babcock has caught up to the boards from last year! Numfar! Do the dance of joy! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycFqzNxiTwY)
 

Hey, this looks fun! Hopefully they can string some wins together and stick for a bit.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on November 23, 2017, 04:47:36 PM
It's gonna be great when he changes his mind and plays Martin anyway on Friday.

(http://familyguytips.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/img_0581.jpg?w=474)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on November 23, 2017, 04:50:14 PM
@jonassiegel
Babcock confirms that Martin is healthy. Stands to be a healthy scratch Friday for the first time as a Leaf.

Sound the celebration alarm! Babcock has caught up to the boards from last year! Numfar! Do the dance of joy! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycFqzNxiTwY)
 

Not bad. Would be better if Babcock switched Marleau and Komorov, since the latter is no longer a top 9 player.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Arn on November 24, 2017, 09:01:34 AM
@jonassiegel
Babcock confirms that Martin is healthy. Stands to be a healthy scratch Friday for the first time as a Leaf.

Sound the celebration alarm! Babcock has caught up to the boards from last year! Numfar! Do the dance of joy! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycFqzNxiTwY)
 

The funny thing is, Martin hasn't annoyed me so much this year. He's been fairly adequate and even done some decent things.

But really I think this decision probably makes the Leafs a better lineup so you can't really argue.

I hope it works cos you know as soon as anything goes wrong Martin will be back in. Tie goes to the veteran after all.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 24, 2017, 09:13:45 AM
The funny thing is, Martin hasn't annoyed me so much this year. He's been fairly adequate and even done some decent things.

But really I think this decision probably makes the Leafs a better lineup so you can't really argue.

I hope it works cos you know as soon as anything goes wrong Martin will be back in. Tie goes to the veteran after all.

I feel like he becomes really noticeable (in a not-good way I mean) the most when Babcock tries to run 4 even lines like he is here. He just feels like such an anchor on any line that he would go on. So I'd be fine with Babs alternating between using 4 even lines like this and sitting Martin and loading up the top-9 a little more and running a Martin-Moore-Soshnikov 4th line.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 24, 2017, 09:17:05 AM
How much of Martin being scratched is some handshake agreement for getting Leivo minutes for signing the extension?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 24, 2017, 10:03:42 AM
How much of Martin being scratched is some handshake agreement for getting Leivo minutes for signing the extension?

I'm hoping for more of a broken hand agreement that forces Martin to retire early and get a cushy "player development" job.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on November 24, 2017, 10:41:08 AM
How much of Martin being scratched is some handshake agreement for getting Leivo minutes for signing the extension?

I'm hoping for more of a broken hand agreement that forces Martin to retire early and get a cushy "player development" job.
I hear they are buying him a ticket to Robidas Island, hopefully Tatoo will have a fruity beverage ready when he lands.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on November 24, 2017, 02:42:44 PM
I'm pretty sure Herman has kidnapped Mike Babcock and taken his place.  That's why he was so snippy to those reporters about the lines question.  It was really Herman, who was afraid of being found out.  (psst Herman, move Nylander to centre).

When have I ever been snippy*?  ;D

* not counting that time I ran down the hall with scissors on each hand

Like Edward Scissorhands?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 24, 2017, 02:51:02 PM
Like Edward Scissorhands?

Something like this, but with less flow.
(http://weirdal.com/wp-content/gallery/nice-band-shot/050999a.jpg)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on November 24, 2017, 03:06:54 PM
Like Edward Scissorhands?

Something like this, but with less flow.
(http://weirdal.com/wp-content/gallery/nice-band-shot/050999a.jpg)

The hair does make the man.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on November 24, 2017, 04:24:04 PM
Like Edward Scissorhands?

Something like this, but with less flow.
(http://weirdal.com/wp-content/gallery/nice-band-shot/050999a.jpg)

The hair does make the man.
Hate to trip on the hurdles.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on November 26, 2017, 02:24:10 PM
Didn't know where else to put this. So I'm in the office today with the wife.  My wife is doing something on the computer and I'm looking at some blurays on a shelf, and I notice a bag on the bottom shelf, and I'm like "oh what's this, I don't remember putting a bag here."  I look inside, see an Auston Matthews home Leafs jersey, wife turns and screams "NOOOOOOOOOOOOO you found your Christmas present!"  Man I felt so bad.  I wasn't even looking for something I was just innocently browsing and boom! 

Jersey is really nice though.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: louisstamos on November 26, 2017, 02:30:54 PM
Didn't know where else to put this. So I'm in the office today with the wife.  My wife is doing something on the computer and I'm looking at some blurays on a shelf, and I notice a bag on the bottom shelf, and I'm like "oh what's this, I don't remember putting a bag here."  I look inside, see an Auston Matthews home Leafs jersey, wife turns and screams "NOOOOOOOOOOOOO you found your Christmas present!"  Man I felt so bad.  I wasn't even looking for something I was just innocently browsing and boom! 

Jersey is really nice though.

(http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/148/193/89c.gif)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on November 26, 2017, 03:47:48 PM
Didn't know where else to put this. So I'm in the office today with the wife.  My wife is doing something on the computer and I'm looking at some blurays on a shelf, and I notice a bag on the bottom shelf, and I'm like "oh what's this, I don't remember putting a bag here."  I look inside, see an Auston Matthews home Leafs jersey, wife turns and screams "NOOOOOOOOOOOOO you found your Christmas present!"  Man I felt so bad.  I wasn't even looking for something I was just innocently browsing and boom! 

Jersey is really nice though.
haha that's a sharp ass jersey zee. niiiice.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on November 26, 2017, 03:53:07 PM
Y'know it seems like a long time ago but only two seasons prior we were in full tank mode and last season was all the rookie debuts. This team really deserves another year to grow. The core is very, very young. If the players are allowed to make mistakes, learn from them and get used to the grind of an 82-game season in a parity league, it's all good.  I guess what I'm saying is we're on our way up no doubt.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 27, 2017, 04:04:58 PM

Babcock hiding Nylander on the 4th line, but probably still going to play him with 2nd line minutes. Nylander's a better '4th liner' than Marner because it's actually quite conceivable that he dummies the opposing line and actually takes a shot that can score. Or trucks it into the zone and on a line change, catches Matthews in stride with the sauce.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on November 27, 2017, 04:06:51 PM
Babcock hiding Nylander on the 4th line, but probably still going to play him with 2nd line minutes. Nylander's a better '4th liner' than Marner because it's actually quite conceivable that he dummies the opposing line and actually takes a shot that can score. Or trucks it into the zone and on a line change, catches Matthews in stride with the sauce.

Matthews, of course, gets the Sundin treatment.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 27, 2017, 04:12:42 PM
Babcock hiding Nylander on the 4th line, but probably still going to play him with 2nd line minutes. Nylander's a better '4th liner' than Marner because it's actually quite conceivable that he dummies the opposing line and actually takes a shot that can score. Or trucks it into the zone and on a line change, catches Matthews in stride with the sauce.

Matthews, of course, gets the Sundin treatment.

And I'd argue that of anyone on the team, he might actually be able to pull it off. Start balanced, and when the game starts to tilt, stack accordingly.

Nylander is sticking on the wing this year because apart from 'hiding' very well, Babcock probably sees him in a similar way to Marleau on offense: his speed and puck carrying is not as much of an advantage if he, as a centre, has to mind the gameflow as F3. And Nylander is a way better carrier than Marleau. Willy will still take the strong side draws when winging for Moore.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on November 27, 2017, 04:25:59 PM
Leivo sitting yet again.....

The organization is never allowed to talk about effort ever again.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 27, 2017, 04:34:40 PM
Matthews, of course, gets the Sundin treatment.

At least with Sundin it was understandable because there legit wasn't any other options. Matthews is playing with arguably the 5th and 6th best wingers on the team here.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 27, 2017, 04:35:21 PM
Polak in for Carrick is more concerning for me. I'm getting used to Babcock's forward arrangements, but I really thought he shook the Polak-habit.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 27, 2017, 04:39:15 PM
If you're gonna put Nylander on the 4th line with Martin, at least let him play centre and give him Leivo on the other wing.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 27, 2017, 05:04:00 PM
Matthews, of course, gets the Sundin treatment.

At least with Sundin it was understandable because there legit wasn't any other options. Matthews is playing with arguably the 5th and 6th best wingers on the team here.

Who would you rather see him play with on the RHS?

It's not like Brown can't find the net.  I'm not sure it's a downgrade, the way Nylander has been handling the puck lately.

Hopefully, Nylander responds the way Marner did...or, kind of did.

I think Polak plays because it's Calgary, and Calgary is going to Calgary...and Martin plays for the same reason, for sure.

I think you'll see Martin starting to sit more and more, but not against teams like Calgary...or Edmonton...maybe against Vancouver.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 27, 2017, 05:53:19 PM
Who would you rather see him play with on the RHS?

It's not like Brown can't find the net.  I'm not sure it's a downgrade, the way Nylander has been handling the puck lately.

I just think that Brown and Hyman serve the same sort of purpose on that top line (albeit yes Brown can score a little better and Hyman has the better size). I'd be fine with Brown playing with Matthews if he had Marleau or even JVR on the other side. I'm fine with Hyman playing with Matthews if he has Nylander or Marner on the other side. I'm just not crazy about them both being there.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on November 27, 2017, 07:49:44 PM
Who would you rather see him play with on the RHS?

It's not like Brown can't find the net.  I'm not sure it's a downgrade, the way Nylander has been handling the puck lately.

I just think that Brown and Hyman serve the same sort of purpose on that top line (albeit yes Brown can score a little better and Hyman has the better size). I'd be fine with Brown playing with Matthews if he had Marleau or even JVR on the other side. I'm fine with Hyman playing with Matthews if he has Nylander or Marner on the other side. I'm just not crazy about them both being there.

But Hoglund and Renberg put up 15-25 goals.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on November 27, 2017, 11:36:38 PM
Babcock has tried just about any random combination it's possible to think of, but somehow Hymen must stay with Matthews. Ditto for Komarov and Kadri.

We can look forward to another slow start until midway through the second, when Babcock once again figures out that doggedly matching lines rather than letting the best players play more minutes is probably not the best strategy.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on November 28, 2017, 09:56:58 AM
Who would you rather see him play with on the RHS?

It's not like Brown can't find the net.  I'm not sure it's a downgrade, the way Nylander has been handling the puck lately.

I just think that Brown and Hyman serve the same sort of purpose on that top line (albeit yes Brown can score a little better and Hyman has the better size). I'd be fine with Brown playing with Matthews if he had Marleau or even JVR on the other side. I'm fine with Hyman playing with Matthews if he has Nylander or Marner on the other side. I'm just not crazy about them both being there.

But Hoglund and Renberg put up 15-25 goals.

I'm not sure who it was, but didn't someone have this as their tagline for a while:

Sundin goes to the doctor and says my back really hurts.   
Doctor responds no wonder you've been carrying Jonas Hoglund around on it for years.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 28, 2017, 11:06:41 AM
I just think that Brown and Hyman serve the same sort of purpose on that top line (albeit yes Brown can score a little better and Hyman has the better size). I'd be fine with Brown playing with Matthews if he had Marleau or even JVR on the other side. I'm fine with Hyman playing with Matthews if he has Nylander or Marner on the other side. I'm just not crazy about them both being there.

I see Brown and Hyman playing quite differently. Their deficiencies and their standout feature are both very similar: can't play the puck for very long, and works harder than everybody; but their styles are quite different.

Hyman is a board battler and net-front pick/screen and generally doesn't need to touch the puck. Brown is an opportunistic shooter, always angling for the right position to capitalize on a pass/rebound in the slot and generally only needs to touch the puck once.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 28, 2017, 11:28:27 AM
I just think that Brown and Hyman serve the same sort of purpose on that top line (albeit yes Brown can score a little better and Hyman has the better size). I'd be fine with Brown playing with Matthews if he had Marleau or even JVR on the other side. I'm fine with Hyman playing with Matthews if he has Nylander or Marner on the other side. I'm just not crazy about them both being there.

I see Brown and Hyman playing quite differently. Their deficiencies and their standout feature are both very similar: can't play the puck for very long, and works harder than everybody; but their styles are quite different.

Hyman is a board battler and net-front pick/screen and generally doesn't need to touch the puck. Brown is an opportunistic shooter, always angling for the right position to capitalize on a pass/rebound in the slot and generally only needs to touch the puck once.

I can get with this, somewhat...I think Hyman is a physical board battler/puck retrieval, and a net front screener.  Brown uses his stick to retrieve pucks, and has a nice scoring and passing touch.  Brown has much better offensive and defensive instincts/positioning than does Hyman, but Hyman is quicker and more physical.

Neither are puck carriers, I agree.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 28, 2017, 11:32:29 AM
I just think that Brown and Hyman serve the same sort of purpose on that top line (albeit yes Brown can score a little better and Hyman has the better size).

I see Brown and Hyman playing quite differently. Their deficiencies and their standout feature are both very similar: can't play the puck for very long, and works harder than everybody; but their styles are quite different.

Hyman is a board battler and net-front pick/screen and generally doesn't need to touch the puck. Brown is an opportunistic shooter, always angling for the right position to capitalize on a pass/rebound in the slot and generally only needs to touch the puck once.

Yeah, I mean I really feel like we basically said the same thing here ;).

Either way, they're both passengers on a line, albeit effective passengers I think. Or as Ryan Stimson wrote when he discussed playing styles last season, they're both "dependents". And you generally don't want two dependents on the same line.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 28, 2017, 11:42:28 AM
I just think that Brown and Hyman serve the same sort of purpose on that top line (albeit yes Brown can score a little better and Hyman has the better size).

I see Brown and Hyman playing quite differently. Their deficiencies and their standout feature are both very similar: can't play the puck for very long, and works harder than everybody; but their styles are quite different.

Hyman is a board battler and net-front pick/screen and generally doesn't need to touch the puck. Brown is an opportunistic shooter, always angling for the right position to capitalize on a pass/rebound in the slot and generally only needs to touch the puck once.

Yeah, I mean I really feel like we basically said the same thing here ;).

Either way, they're both passengers on a line, albeit effective passengers I think. Or as Ryan Stimson wrote when he discussed playing styles last season, they're both "dependents". And you generally don't want two dependents on the same line.

Is that right?  2 "playmakers" and 1 dependent...or do they take the defensemen into account?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 28, 2017, 11:48:05 AM
Either way, they're both passengers on a line, albeit effective passengers I think. Or as Ryan Stimson wrote when he discussed playing styles last season, they're both "dependents". And you generally don't want two dependents on the same line.

Is that right?  2 "playmakers" and 1 dependent...or do they take the defensemen into account?

Talking about forwards only. This was the piece was I was referencing: https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/04/04/identifying-player-types-with-clustering/

And this is the cheat sheet:

(https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/fwd_lines.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 28, 2017, 11:55:04 AM
Either way, they're both passengers on a line, albeit effective passengers I think. Or as Ryan Stimson wrote when he discussed playing styles last season, they're both "dependents". And you generally don't want two dependents on the same line.

Is that right?  2 "playmakers" and 1 dependent...or do they take the defensemen into account?

Talking about forwards only. This was the piece was I was referencing: https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/04/04/identifying-player-types-with-clustering/


Thanks C...now herman has to get to work determining which category each Leaf fits into, according to the hockey-graphs criteria.

Go.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 28, 2017, 12:18:40 PM
Either way, they're both passengers on a line, albeit effective passengers I think. Or as Ryan Stimson wrote when he discussed playing styles last season, they're both "dependents". And you generally don't want two dependents on the same line.

Is that right?  2 "playmakers" and 1 dependent...or do they take the defensemen into account?

Talking about forwards only. This was the piece was I was referencing: https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/04/04/identifying-player-types-with-clustering/


Thanks C...now herman has to get to work determining which category each Leaf fits into, according to the hockey-graphs criteria.

Go.

I already posted this in the offseason, so I'm pretty aware of it :) It's literally the first post of this thread (http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4599.msg300858#msg300858). I think there are nuances to the clusters (e.g. offensive-dependent, defensive-playmaker, etc.).

I think that data was also not 100% complete either. I'm trying to account for some growth with the younger players.

There's also this post (http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4153.msg299901#msg299901) if you want to see the breakdown of the components that led to that clustering.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 28, 2017, 12:35:27 PM
Thanks herman, that's interesting.

It would be interesting to see what it looks like updated.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 28, 2017, 12:50:11 PM
Is Leivo a shooter or dependent?

It'd be nice to see Kapanen get a longer look in either a top 9 role or in a functioning 4th line aka minus Martin and Moore.

Leivo - Bozak - Kapanen feels like a line that would murder other 4th lines.

Hyman - God - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown (They looked good last year, despite having two dependents.)
Jvr - Marleau - Marner
Leivo - Bozak - Kapanen
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 28, 2017, 01:34:52 PM
Is Leivo a shooter or dependent?

Who knows!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 28, 2017, 03:20:23 PM
https://theathletic.com/168458/2017/11/28/bourne-defensemen-are-finding-a-way-around-shot-blocking-layers-a-look-at-which-teams-do-it-best/

This is Morgan Rielly's jam.

These are 2017-18 numbers:
(https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-media-theathletic-production/app/uploads/2017/11/28140038/Screen-Shot-2017-11-28-at-1.59.06-PM-456x1024.png)

Leafs defenders rarely shoot to score directly. Just like last year, they form a blue line wall to play the cycle off of (low-high) with defenders swapping in to continue the play or pumping the puck down to the endboards, or rimming it to the weakside forward to start a fresh scramble. When they do shoot, it's because the defense left the high slot open.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on November 28, 2017, 07:00:49 PM
Hyman - God - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Jvr - Marleau - Marner
Leivo - Bozak - Kapanen

Why can't this just be the lineup?  It's so much better than the usual, despite but a few changes.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 28, 2017, 07:28:42 PM
The words I keep coming back to when I see the bottom of our lineup looking so dour, are what Jack Han mentioned re: Hunlak: when you make a tea, you put the bag in there for a time, and then you throw it away. The program the Leafs are putting together has an eye for beyond the current game, and even the current season.

While I, and many fans here and on the rest of the internet, believe Matthews, Nylander, Marner, et al. are ready for prime time, it looks like the Leafs are building their core an insulation team of 'dependable' veteran depth mentors with varying-degrees-of-skill (Marleau, Hainsey, Moore, Martin, Polak), so that our skilled guys on the Leafs and Marlies are also our hardest working guys night in and night out (see Crosby, Tavares vs Seguin, Spezza).

The way they're being pressed to play right now is like playoff training, trying to make them play with no space and creating in spite of that. Babcock still gives them the third period to freewheel when we're chasing -- it certainly seems more effective, but it's probably hard to keep up for the whole season if it's 3 periods of back and forth a game. Otherwise, it's playoff mode line matching and tight structured checking first. That's the playstyle we actually need to develop as a go-to option as we already know the kids can really fly. As we work through the lumps, I'm assuming we'll start generating chances 'the right way' and still have the Team North America way in the back pocket.

Where this leaves the likes of Carrick, Leivo, Soshnikov, Kapanen, is on the sidelines or the Marlies because the Core is focused on building their team game first, before getting the new responsibility to carrying the new 'kids' (they're all older than Marner though). We saw it with Rielly, Kadri, and now Dermott on the Marlies. First year is sheltered confidence building; second year is finding out how big a millstone can you carry; and after that, go have fun.

Edit: grammar
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 28, 2017, 09:06:06 PM
The words I keep coming back to when I see the bottom of our lineup looking so dour, are what Jack Han mentioned re: Hunlak: when you make a tea, you put the bag in there for a time, and then you throw it away. The program the Leafs are putting together has an eye for beyond the current game, and even the current season.

While I, and many fans here and on the rest of the internet, believe Matthews, Nylander, Marner, et al. are ready for prime time, it looks like the Leafs are building their core and insulation team of 'dependable' veteran depth mentors with varying-degrees-of-skill (Marleau, Hainsey, Moore, Martin, Polak), so that our skilled guys on the Leafs and Marlies are also our hardest working guys night in and night out (see Crosby, Tavares vs Seguin, Spezza).

The way they're being pressed to play right now is like playoff training, trying to make them play with no space and creating in spite of that. Babcock still gives them the third period to freewheel when we're chasing -- it certainly seems more effective, but it's probably hard to keep up for the whole season if it's 3 periods of back and forth a game. Otherwise, it's playoff mode line matching and tight structured checking first. That's the playstyle we actually need to develop as a go-to option as we already know the kids can really fly. As we work through the lumps, I'm assuming we'll start generating chances 'the right way' and still have the Team North America way in the back pocket.

Where this leaves the likes of Carrick, Leivo, Soshnikov, Kapanen, is on the sidelines or the Marlies because the Core is focused on building their team game first, before getting the new responsibility to carrying the new 'kids' (they're all older than Marner though). We saw it with Rielly, Kadri, and now Dermott on the Marlies. First year is sheltered confidence building; second year is finding out how big a millstone can you carry; and after that, go have fun.

I hope you're right, great post.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 29, 2017, 10:49:48 AM
Thanks, WIGWAL. It's all semi-evidence-based speculation, but I'm seeing the team embrace the concept that hockey is a strong-link (https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/14/strong-and-weak-links-talent-distribution-within-teams/) sport and they're dedicating resources to really building up those key guys.

They caught the Calgary Flames on a flat day, but I thought the Leafs played a nice complete (almost boring) game last night.

Some of our defense is still not confident enough (or experienced in the League enough) to gap up on attackers at the line (Zaitsev, Borgman), but they did a good job overall the past two games limiting dangerous chances. Those two in particular are also starting to use their skating to get out of danger more to free up a cleaner first pass.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 29, 2017, 04:09:42 PM

Babcocks doing this for the lols
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 29, 2017, 04:35:52 PM
One thing I like about 2017-2018 Babcock is that he puts the lines in a blender if they're not ahead by the end of the first period.

Don't think he did that as much last year.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 29, 2017, 04:46:53 PM
Swap Komarov and Nylander and those lines are pretty great.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 29, 2017, 04:49:54 PM
One thing I like about 2017-2018 Babcock is that he puts the lines in a blender if they're not ahead by the end of the first period.

Don't think he did that as much last year.

Aside from sometimes switching Nylander and Brown on the Matthews/Kadri lines our top-9 literally didn't change at all from the start of the season to the finish (except for injuries). This is night and day from what we saw last year.

I do think there's probably a happy medium somewhere between 'never changing the lines' and 'changing the lines every week' though.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 29, 2017, 05:14:14 PM
One thing I like about 2017-2018 Babcock is that he puts the lines in a blender if they're not ahead by the end of the first period.

Don't think he did that as much last year.

Marleaus flexibility in being a reliable centre (at the minor cost of a dip in his offence) helps the mix n match. On the road, Babcock likes to see what the other team is chasing for their line match and changes up accordingly.

He also usually has the centre come on first regardless of who came off the ice on the fly, so he can overlap a few combos here and there to catch lines unaware. E.g. Nylander entry goes deep and he has a good hold, so Matthews jumps over as a sneaky late forward and puts away a clean Nylander saucer pass to the high slot. Cant really plan for it, but thats pretty feasible against a trapped 4th line.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: caveman on November 29, 2017, 05:21:47 PM
I'd like to see a few shifts with Nylander as a LW with Matthews and Marner when Babcock has his blender going...
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 29, 2017, 05:28:44 PM
One thing I like about 2017-2018 Babcock is that he puts the lines in a blender if they're not ahead by the end of the first period.

Don't think he did that as much last year.

Marleaus flexibility in being a reliable centre (at the minor cost of a dip in his offence) helps the mix n match. On the road, Babcock likes to see what the other team is chasing for their line match and changes up accordingly.

He also usually has the centre come on first regardless of who came off the ice on the fly, so he can overlap a few combos here and there to catch lines unaware. E.g. Nylander entry goes deep and he has a good hold, so Matthews jumps over as a sneaky late forward and puts away a clean Nylander saucer pass to the high slot. Cant really plan for it, but thats pretty feasible against a trapped 4th line.

The addition of Marleau, and the flexibility to the lineup he provides, is exactly was I was thinking made it more palatable to Babcock to change things on the fly.  So, I agree with you.

I have noticed him try to trap the opposition's 4th line by doing what you described.

To Carlton's point, I think that there will likely be a little more stability moving forward, once they get Nylander back on a more consistent offensive track.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on November 29, 2017, 05:46:06 PM
Just to add to the above, I think it's pretty clear at this point that Babcock intentionally hides a Marner or a Nylander on the 4th line.  The media, and the boards, go bananas talking about how it's a punishment for lackluster performance, and they don't deserve to be there because potential, and Babcock will even say that they're just not performing well enough to be in the top 9...but they become sneaky weapons against lousy 4th lines.

I think he does it not as a demotion, but as a tool to give those guys an opportunity against lousier players to reinvigorate, in disguise, to throw off opposing coaches/teams.

I think it's a luxury he enjoys, and uses effectively, given the deep lineup...and even if other teams are on to it, he makes them stretch out their lineups pretty thin.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on November 29, 2017, 07:40:40 PM
I still would like to see Nylander given a go at center for a few games.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 29, 2017, 09:31:13 PM
Just to add to the above, I think it's pretty clear at this point that Babcock intentionally hides a Marner or a Nylander on the 4th line.  The media, and the boards, go bananas talking about how it's a punishment for lackluster performance, and they don't deserve to be there because potential, and Babcock will even say that they're just not performing well enough to be in the top 9...but they become sneaky weapons against lousy 4th lines.

I think he does it not as a demotion, but as a tool to give those guys an opportunity against lousier players to reinvigorate, in disguise, to throw off opposing coaches/teams.

I think it's a luxury he enjoys, and uses effectively, given the deep lineup...and even if other teams are on to it, he makes them stretch out their lineups pretty thin.

Yeah, that sounds about right. The media is still caught up with narratives from the way the game used to be played with numbered lines.

I still would like to see Nylander given a go at center for a few games.

I really wanted that the past couple of years too, but I've come around to seeing it this way: they're trying to protect Bozak's market value. Remember how Babcock seemingly walked back his remarks about seeing Nylander as a centre long term? Barring 2+ centres going down with injury, I don't think we'll see Nylander at centre until Bozak is moved or unsigned.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on November 29, 2017, 10:49:52 PM
Just to add to the above, I think it's pretty clear at this point that Babcock intentionally hides a Marner or a Nylander on the 4th line.  The media, and the boards, go bananas talking about how it's a punishment for lackluster performance, and they don't deserve to be there because potential, and Babcock will even say that they're just not performing well enough to be in the top 9...but they become sneaky weapons against lousy 4th lines.

I think he does it not as a demotion, but as a tool to give those guys an opportunity against lousier players to reinvigorate, in disguise, to throw off opposing coaches/teams.

I think it's a luxury he enjoys, and uses effectively, given the deep lineup...and even if other teams are on to it, he makes them stretch out their lineups pretty thin.

Yeah, that sounds about right. The media is still caught up with narratives from the way the game used to be played with numbered lines.

I still would like to see Nylander given a go at center for a few games.

I really wanted that the past couple of years too, but I've come around to seeing it this way: they're trying to protect Bozak's market value. Remember how Babcock seemingly walked back his remarks about seeing Nylander as a centre long term? Barring 2+ centres going down with injury, I don't think we'll see Nylander at centre until Bozak is moved or unsigned.

You're probably right, but that sort of asset-management strategizing aside, just looking at where Nylander would have the most success, I think he may be best suited as a centerman.  It would be nice to see how he fares there.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on November 30, 2017, 09:58:19 AM
You're probably right, but that sort of asset-management strategizing aside, just looking at where Nylander would have the most success, I think he may be best suited as a centerman.  It would be nice to see how he fares there.

I would posit that the reason Babcock preferse Nylander at wing (at the moment) is similar to the reason he prefers Marleau at wing, even though he can be a reliable centre: it's suboptimal for offense. I wish I could find that particular transcript, but I've shared the gist of his rationale here before. But since I don't remember where I wrote it, I'll just do it again.

Babcock prefers Marleau on the wing to take advantage of his speed (in transition). The winger's responsibility on the breakout is to stretch the defense and they are usually the first to enter the zone either to forecheck the dump in, or carrying the play. The centre is usually F3, safety net support for F1/2 if they are stalled up, and also outlet option 1 for the D as he goes back the deepest of the forwards.

I think it's pretty easy to draw a similar conclusion regarding Nylander. He's a zone entry machine for the Leafs and part of the reason is because he's able to receive the first or second breakout pass in stride from D or F3. His speed and puck handling automatically mean defenders are backing off the line and that allows the whole team to set up. Centre/F3 is very often at the bottom of his buttonhook with very little by way of speed and momentum going north when he first touches the puck. Once they get into the zone though, Nylander sort of plays the traditional centre spot as he has the most dangerous long distance shot, usually the fastest player on backchecking, and relatively weakest physical board presence. He still receives lots of puck touches as the primary handler when set up.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on November 30, 2017, 11:13:09 AM
You're probably right, but that sort of asset-management strategizing aside, just looking at where Nylander would have the most success, I think he may be best suited as a centerman.  It would be nice to see how he fares there.

I would posit that the reason Babcock preferse Nylander at wing (at the moment) is similar to the reason he prefers Marleau at wing, even though he can be a reliable centre: it's suboptimal for offense. I wish I could find that particular transcript, but I've shared the gist of his rationale here before. But since I don't remember where I wrote it, I'll just do it again.

Babcock prefers Marleau on the wing to take advantage of his speed (in transition). The winger's responsibility on the breakout is to stretch the defense and they are usually the first to enter the zone either to forecheck the dump in, or carrying the play. The centre is usually F3, safety net support for F1/2 if they are stalled up, and also outlet option 1 for the D as he goes back the deepest of the forwards.

I think it's pretty easy to draw a similar conclusion regarding Nylander. He's a zone entry machine for the Leafs and part of the reason is because he's able to receive the first or second breakout pass in stride from D or F3. His speed and puck handling automatically mean defenders are backing off the line and that allows the whole team to set up. Centre/F3 is very often at the bottom of his buttonhook with very little by way of speed and momentum going north when he first touches the puck. Once they get into the zone though, Nylander sort of plays the traditional centre spot as he has the most dangerous long distance shot, usually the fastest player on backchecking, and relatively weakest physical board presence. He still receives lots of puck touches as the primary handler when set up.

As usual, good analysis.  I guess my response would be, put him with a pure finisher and let that guy (call him a centerman if you wish) slide in to look for a Nylander pass.  Although I guess that's basically what he and Matthews did.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on November 30, 2017, 05:59:47 PM
With Nylander at centre, it would give the Leafs two right-handed Cs (Nylander & Bozak), and two left-handed Cs (Matthews & Kadri).  This will also give coach Babcock more options on which line to utilize depending on where the faceoff is set.

Since Nylander as we know is an elite offensive zone entry player, giving him his own line creates optimal opportunities and gets more players in the offensive zone even in faring against the other's 3rd/4th lines and second defense pairings.

In summation, Matthews' line faces off against the other team's top d pairings, Kadri's line gets to go against the usual tougher matchups;  and Nylander's line gives it flexibility (as mentioned above).

Leaf line (sample) combinatoons:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner 
JVR-Kadri-Komarov
         or                                             
Komarov-Kadri-Brown (call it the shutdown line)

Marleau-Nylander-Leivo (excellent offensive line with Leivo making room in the offensive zone)

Soshnikov-Bozak-Brown   

Martin, Moore
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on December 03, 2017, 01:47:19 PM
Leo has 3 goals and 0 primary assists through 28 games playing a ton of second line minutes. He gives the puck away constantly, creates nothing for others and misses almost every chance he gets in the offensive end. The leafs have at least 3 better options in that position who are in the press box or AHL. Enough is enough.

Ditto for Polak, more or less.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 04, 2017, 05:32:22 PM

I both love and hate this.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on December 04, 2017, 05:32:46 PM
This was a neat question, thought I'd share. #1 Center, Power LW, #1 Goalie or All-Star defenseman? I went with the rarest find in today's NHL, and boy would he flourish.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on December 04, 2017, 05:33:57 PM

I both love and hate this.

Love: Willy, Mitch and JVR correct..
Hate: Martin/Polak correct..
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on December 04, 2017, 05:35:52 PM
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on December 05, 2017, 01:54:07 AM
This was a neat question, thought I'd share. #1 Center, Power LW, #1 Goalie or All-Star defenseman? I went with the rarest find in today's NHL, and boy would he flourish.


Borje Salming All-Star defenceman.  My fave Leaf.  :)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on December 05, 2017, 11:20:16 AM
This was a neat question, thought I'd share. #1 Center, Power LW, #1 Goalie or All-Star defenseman? I went with the rarest find in today's NHL, and boy would he flourish.


Borje Salming All-Star defenceman.  My fave Leaf.  :)
I will second that, having Salming on this team would definitely be looking at the Cup
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 05, 2017, 12:09:29 PM

This is great nerdy stuff.

When Marleau was signed, I was hoping he'd become the mentor to the stars that this team was missing (Martin can only dad about what he knows) who can still play. Here's a guy who was drafted near the top, played for one team pretty much his whole career, hit up every international tourney along the way, and has in iron man streak to boot. Overpaying him wasn't great, but we are overpaying him with LTIR credit.

I'm hoping he and Nylander get better acquainted too. Of the Big Three, Marleau's hockey tools are most similar to Nylander's.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on December 05, 2017, 12:22:09 PM
haha saw that too Herman. If he had twins at 18 Patty certainly is old enough to be their father.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on December 05, 2017, 03:25:35 PM
haha saw that too Herman. If he had twins at 18 Patty certainly is old enough to be their father.

I think they should go over the other TLA's.  Marleau might be thinking that Marner and Matthews are giving him lot's of love.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 05, 2017, 04:52:24 PM
haha saw that too Herman. If he had twins at 18 Patty certainly is old enough to be their father.


So I don't have internet at home because my modem died. I might actually have to read a book (on my I-phone).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 05, 2017, 05:45:27 PM
Matthews jokes hes got four kids at home and two on the road

I assume she meant Marleau.

Also happy to admit I don't know what HBU means either.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on December 05, 2017, 06:12:13 PM
Matthews jokes hes got four kids at home and two on the road

I assume she meant Marleau.

Also happy to admit I don't know what HBU means either.


It's supposed to stand for  "How About You" (?), or something thereof, similar to "How (a)Bout yoU"?


https://www.internetslang.com/HBU-meaning-definition.asp (https://www.internetslang.com/HBU-meaning-definition.asp)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bill_Berg on December 05, 2017, 10:02:17 PM
Matthews jokes hes got four kids at home and two on the road

I assume she meant Marleau.

Also happy to admit I don't know what HBU means either.

I took it as Matthews joking that Marleau has 4 at home 2 on the road.

I had to Google HBU.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 05, 2017, 10:27:39 PM
Matthews jokes hes got four kids at home and two on the road

I assume she meant Marleau.

Also happy to admit I don't know what HBU means either.

I took it as Matthews joking that Marleau has 4 at home 2 on the road.

I had to Google HBU.

Well duh, thanks BB -- you're right, I got it exactly backwards.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 05, 2017, 11:50:36 PM

This is what Ive been looking for.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on December 06, 2017, 08:51:34 AM
Matthews jokes hes got four kids at home and two on the road

I assume she meant Marleau.

Also happy to admit I don't know what HBU means either.

I took it as Matthews joking that Marleau has 4 at home 2 on the road.

I had to Google HBU.


"Howdy, Big Unit?"
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 06, 2017, 09:13:04 AM
"Howdy, Big Unit?"

(https://i1.wp.com/www.baseballessential.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Randy-Johnson-Los-Angeles-Dodgers-v-Arizona-MLQ3d11Z4dyl.jpg?fit=594%2C404&ssl=1)
What up, Zee?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on December 06, 2017, 09:56:21 AM

This is what Ive been looking for.

A few comments:

1.  In the replies, Tulloch says only 11 of the Leafs games were tracked so it doesn't cover the entire season so far.
2.  Connor Brown seems to be moving towards "balanced" instead of "dependent"
3.  Morgan Rielly looks really elite offensively.  I went to check how he is league-wide:  He's first!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 08, 2017, 11:01:03 AM

Topical!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on December 08, 2017, 11:11:22 AM
Can that be right on Martin?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on December 08, 2017, 11:16:46 AM
Can that be right on Martin?

Hits Leaders since 2013:

Martin 1476
Clutterbuck  1130
Reaves 1019

He's been a league leader in hits for many years- and he does it with limited ice-time. 

(NOTE:  Above data is 5v5 only.  Any situations, Luke Schenn and Lucic jump over Reaves but still are barely over 1020.  With a lot more ice time)



Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on December 08, 2017, 11:27:37 AM
Can that be right on Martin?

Hits Leaders since 2013:

Martin 1476
Clutterbuck  1130
Reaves 1019

He's been a league leader in hits for many years- and he does it with limited ice-time. 

(NOTE:  Above data is 5v5 only.  Any situations, Luke Schenn and Lucic jump over Reaves but still are barely over 1020.  With a lot more ice time)

Yeah, I knew he had big numbers, I just didn't think they were 4-5 times others' in the cluster.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on December 08, 2017, 11:53:16 AM
Can that be right on Martin?

Hits Leaders since 2013:

Martin 1476
Clutterbuck  1130
Reaves 1019

He's been a league leader in hits for many years- and he does it with limited ice-time. 

(NOTE:  Above data is 5v5 only.  Any situations, Luke Schenn and Lucic jump over Reaves but still are barely over 1020.  With a lot more ice time)

Yeah, I knew he had big numbers, I just didn't think they were 4-5 times others' in the cluster.

The amount of hits he throws is more impressive when you look at some data.  I used corsica to get this information from 2013-2014 until today, all situations, and limited to players playing 2000+ mins, gives 583 players (so just about 18 players per team).  I think that is a good sample of how he does compared to the entire league.

Hits/60 mins: 
1st:  Martin 24.74
2nd:  Reaves 23.08
3rd:  Glass 19.72
...
15th:  Marcus Foligno 12.41   <-  Twice as many hits per 60 as the 15th best hitter in the league over that span.
293rd:  Drew Doughty 3.88    <-  More than SIX times the number of hits per 60 of guys near the league median!!!


Don't get me wrong-  some of the best players in the league are near the bottom of the list of amount of hits or hits/60.  It usually means you don't have the puck.  But man, there are a heck of a lot of guys who don't have the puck much in this league and they aren't making the opposition pay anywhere near as much as Martin is. 

I think people only think of Martin as a fighter too often.  Yes, he can do that.  But he does other things well too and isn't out of place in this league.  Really, his contract is the toughest pill to swallow.  Next is the Leafs have better players sitting out games so he can play every night, but, I'm less concerned about that than most because he's not terrible.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 08, 2017, 11:57:49 AM
What I like about Martins hitting is how cleanly he does it too.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on December 08, 2017, 12:13:26 PM
What I like about Martins hitting is how cleanly he does it too.

He's only taken 4 minor penalties this season...I think I know what the other 4 majors are, so those inflate his total PIMs.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 08, 2017, 12:47:22 PM
If you haven't read this yet: https://theathletic.com/172018/2017/12/06/meet-the-man-whos-responsible-for-keeping-the-maple-leafs-healthy/

Mirtle and Siegel talk about it, among other things.

I was pretty excited when Dr. Jeremy Bettle's hiring was announced; the front office was digging outside the hockey sphere for smart people who knew how to optimize athletes' bodies. You can see the results now in the past two seasons' injury reports. Zaitsev went home after the first season with a better idea of how he should train (less for strength, more for stamina). Andersen has trimmed down significantly and has added an extra level of spryness to his huge reach.

Now with Marleau, Hainsey, and Moore in the fold, the pool of knowledge has only grown in how to keep players' careers extended well beyond the average. Too bad for Leivo.

The podcast also dips into Babcock's management of minutes, how each player has roles assigned and they don't really deviate. No forward plays over 20 minutes, and the top 4 defense are hovering between 21-23 minutes for the regular season. Those minutes-savings probably cost us a goal here or there, but over the long haul adds up to over 10 games of full 20 minutes of TOI that our best players have available to them.

This is long-view deployment (which is what I'd argue is happening in other deployment 'issues'), rather than win-today deployment. The obvious extrapolation is that Babcock is expecting we'll get into the playoffs and is building the program accordingly. Heck, with the playoff format the way it is and the division we play in, 2nd place in the Atlantic is probably the easiest path through.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on December 12, 2017, 11:21:39 AM
Soshnikov to the IR with a lower-body injury and Kapanen has been recalled.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 12, 2017, 11:25:19 AM
Soshnikov to the IR with a lower-body injury and Kapanen has been recalled.

Clearly, all that ice time he's getting put too much strain on his body.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 12, 2017, 11:25:54 AM
... did Soshnikov just get Robidas'd?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 12, 2017, 11:28:06 AM
Soshnikov has a history of overextending himself in his off-ice workouts.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on December 12, 2017, 01:26:53 PM
Why recall Kapanen?  Is it just a "here collect an NHL salary for a couple of days" transaction?  Or is Leivo really about to turn in to a rage monster?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: louisstamos on December 12, 2017, 01:33:54 PM
Why recall Kapanen?  Is it just a "here collect an NHL salary for a couple of days" transaction?  Or is Leivo really about to turn in to a rage monster?

Leivo will probably still be in the lineup, but it helps to have 1 extra guy in case someone gets hurt in the warm up or something (it *has* happened before...)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 12, 2017, 01:40:08 PM
Leivo will probably still be in the lineup, but it helps to have 1 extra guy in case someone gets hurt in the warm up or something (it *has* happened before...)

Basically, yeah. With the amount of road games they have upcoming - including a number of back-to-backs - better to have another healthy forward with the team, just in case someone gets sick, etc., on the morning/afternoon of a game.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 12, 2017, 03:45:31 PM
The Leafs 'system' has been on the hot seat all season, but probably moreso lately, their run of wins notwithstanding.

Out of the gate, the Leafs were flying up the ice with regularity and scoring a ton. They were also chasing the puck back regularly and fishing it out of their net, but not quite as often as their opponents were. It was glorious fun, but the number of turnovers we were getting stymied by meant something had to change.

Mirtle: The Leafs are the hottest team in the NHL but they aren't really playing all that well (https://theathletic.com/181223/2017/12/11/mirtle-the-leafs-are-the-hottest-team-in-the-nhl-but-they-arent-really-playing-all-that-well/)

The Leafs have been winning a ridiculous number of games since falling flat on our first western roadtrip on the backs of a stellar November for Andersen, and some surprisingly good showings by McElhinney, all the while being routinely outshot and showing little of the flash and zip (and other storage formats) the Leafs showed in the first 10 games. Matthews has been out of the lineup almost as much as he's been in it. Zach Hyman has more goals than Nylander and Marner (almost combined). Polak has been in the lineup more than he's been out of it. What the hell is happening?

Here's a theory:

Okay. Mike Kelly generally uses words and concepts I'm into, but twists it just enough that I have questions. He says it's more successful (and the game results bear this out), but why?

This style of play is hurting us in facets of our game that we used to excel:
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Our fancy stats show the Leafs are a team playing average-ish hockey, in front of a giant mega goalie. Our fancier stats show we're boxing out the rebound opportunities in our end. Is this actually good?

I'm leaning towards this interpretation:

It's trading off the speed-driven offense derived from stretch passes and skating carries into OZ (as well as the costly turnovers), for more of a unified, blue-collar march. Dump-ins (uncontrolled entries) are often turnovers too, but this strategy pushes the turnovers into the OZ, rather than NZ; an OZ turnover usually has 4-5 Leafs between the puck and the net, while an NZ turnover usually has 0-2 Leafs between the puck and the net.

Early on, defenders were gapping up on Marner and Nylander and Matthews much more aggressively, causing a lot of those turnovers as they were the players who'd hold on longer to make a play. Given an opening, these players will still dance it in, but option 1 when the doors are closed is a diagonal dump-in. The strong side gets a majority of the forechecking to try to flush the puck back around up to the weakside defenseman to set up. This strategy really only requires hard work and discipline (which is cheap!).

It's old school Canadian hockey, with some new school mods. We're still funneling our shot attempts from the middle of the ice; defensemen haven't been told not to shoot, but they're only really shooting when there is room to close down to the circles.

I maintain the Leafs are still trying to train their players how to play Playoff-brand no-room hockey. I don't think we're collectively very good at it yet, but our talent and whatever voodoo Steve Briere and Piero Greco are cooking up with the netminders is currently masking our mistakes. When this team starts putting it together and can switch modes at will, there aren't too many teams that can put up with that. Consider how we're gutting out ugly road games with Matthews, Nylander, Marner (and Bozak and Komarov) barely producing. What'll happen when they come around?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 12, 2017, 03:49:57 PM
Further to Matthews coming around, is he concussed or what?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on December 12, 2017, 04:26:16 PM

<snip>

I maintain the Leafs are still trying to train their players how to play Playoff-brand no-room hockey. I don't think we're collectively very good at it yet, but our talent and whatever voodoo Steve Briere and Piero Greco are cooking up with the netminders is currently masking our mistakes. When this team starts putting it together and can switch modes at will, there aren't too many teams that can put up with that. Consider how we're gutting out ugly road games with Matthews, Nylander, Marner (and Bozak and Komarov) barely producing. What'll happen when they come around?

This is how I feel about things.  I just don't know if Babcock is forcing them to play like this, to try and get them to figure it out so that they can play like this properly during the playoffs, or, you know, they're just not playing well.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 12, 2017, 04:42:47 PM

<snip>

I maintain the Leafs are still trying to train their players how to play Playoff-brand no-room hockey. I don't think we're collectively very good at it yet, but our talent and whatever voodoo Steve Briere and Piero Greco are cooking up with the netminders is currently masking our mistakes. When this team starts putting it together and can switch modes at will, there aren't too many teams that can put up with that. Consider how we're gutting out ugly road games with Matthews, Nylander, Marner (and Bozak and Komarov) barely producing. What'll happen when they come around?

This is how I feel about things.  I just don't know if Babcock is forcing them to play like this, to try and get them to figure it out so that they can play like this properly during the playoffs, or, you know, they're just not playing well.

A bit of column A, and a bit of column B, which is usually what happens when you change things up this much during the year. A lot of them still don't know what to do in the defensive zone to break cycles (I don't really know either). The points cushion means we can afford to focus more on development the first half of the season.

If my read is right, then I'd say it's a really good thing. It's Babcock saying, okay, I know what the talent is and what it can net; now I want to see who can bring it every night. He incessantly cites Datsyuk and Zetterberg and Marleau as players to model. Less talented players get the minutes because they work harder consistently.

I don't think anyone would argue that Nylander is pretty awesome; I don't think anyone would argue either that Nylander with Hyman/Brown/Matthews' work ethic would be even more awesome.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on December 12, 2017, 05:13:29 PM

This style of play is hurting us in facets of our game that we used to excel:
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Um, I don't think we've ever excelled at most of the "against" rates in that tweet.  In terms of the "share", yes, we've done better but only because our offense was generating (slightly) more than we were giving up. 

Furthermore, how often have we gotten the lead first during this stretch?  I do wonder if Babcock insists on the dump-n-chase more once they have the lead to reduce those NZ turnovers.  I remember this team losing a heck of a lot of leads last year and its probably because they just kept trying to do the same thing with the puck (ie try controlled entries even when its a high-risk play) even when they had the lead and being safer would have been more helpful.

The Leafs also have one of the toughest schedules in the league for November-December (plus the first game in Jan  :-\ ).  They had an easy start, against some weaker CF% teams, and it put a shine on the team that probably wasn't entirely deserved.  Since then, they've had both their California and Western Canada road trips, and 10 of those games were against teams with CF% of 51.4% or above.

Ultimately, I hope this does make them more effective come playoff time.  Learning to generate good offense without being too risky in the neutral zone would definitely benefit them once the checking gets even tighter. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 12, 2017, 05:43:38 PM
Your point about the leads is a good one.

Playing safe on the lead generally leads to a lot more chances against (we are seeing it). Getting better at playing possession style is better defense in my opinion. But if the team sucks at playing the possession style with the lead, there isnt much point in sticking with it.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: OldTimeHockey on December 12, 2017, 05:51:23 PM
While I agree with all that is being said, and really I don't enjoy the way the team is playing, let's not forget that Toronto had about 4 wide open missed opportunities in that Edmonton game that could of made it a run and gun game like earlier in the season.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on December 12, 2017, 06:47:25 PM
Who's beard game will be solid if we advance past the second round?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 12, 2017, 07:33:13 PM
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This is actually pretty interesting.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 12, 2017, 08:10:03 PM
Incoming conditioning stint in 5... 4...
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 13, 2017, 12:31:20 AM
Komarov has had just 1 game in the past 15 where his CF% was over 50%. And that was against Arizona and they're barely a NHL team. Basically ditto for Kadri, although he squeaked past 50% in one extra game by a single shot attempt. Komarov's at 38.2% in possession in his last 15 games and Kadri's at 41.6%. Kadri has 4 5-on-5 points in those games, Komarov has 0. Those are brutal numbers.

This is a crazy idea, I know, but maybe try not playing them together?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on December 13, 2017, 08:26:16 AM
Honestly, I would trade Komarov and slot Leivo or Kapanen there.  I know we're going for it, but he just doesn't seem to be contributing a whole lot this year.  Try to make something off him and put in a hungry young guy.

Edit: and I would same the same for Bozak.  Keep JvR for the run.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 13, 2017, 09:46:32 AM
Honestly, I would trade Komarov and slot Leivo or Kapanen there.  I know we're going for it, but he just doesn't seem to be contributing a whole lot this year.  Try to make something off him and put in a hungry young guy.

Edit: and I would same the same for Bozak.  Keep JvR for the run.

At this point there's no reason we shouldn't be running a Martin-Moore-Komarov 4th line. He deserves to be there. I wouldn't have wanted to do that earlier because it nerfs his trade value but he's doing that all on his own with his play. Even with Matthews out I'd still run that line and try Kapanen or Leivo in the top-9.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 13, 2017, 09:57:59 AM
Leivo looked more assertive last night than his previous handful of games.

Komarov has really only been useful on the PK (his 5-on-3 coverage was smart).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on December 13, 2017, 09:59:35 AM
Your point about the leads is a good one.

Playing safe on the lead generally leads to a lot more chances against (we are seeing it). Getting better at playing possession style is better defense in my opinion. But if the team sucks at playing the possession style with the lead, there isnt much point in sticking with it.

Aaaaannnnddddd... I totally jinxed them.  No 3rd period blown leads (leading to a L) prior to last night, I bring it up, and they get their first one!

I completely agree with you that they need to play a more possession style game with the lead.  However, I don't want it coming with too many high-risk plays in the NZ either.  It feels like they dump-and-barely-chase a lot.  Brown and JvR said as much in their comments after the game, they need to get in there, win a battle, and establish a cycle.

Certain lines should be able to generate more of a cycle game (not sure the Bozak line would be all that great at it), but they are just dumping it and having the opposition come out of their end rather quickly alot.  Sure it limits rush chances against since they have to come through the whole team, but they end up in their own zone a ton because of it.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on December 13, 2017, 10:07:02 AM
Honestly, I would trade Komarov and slot Leivo or Kapanen there.  I know we're going for it, but he just doesn't seem to be contributing a whole lot this year.  Try to make something off him and put in a hungry young guy.

Edit: and I would same the same for Bozak.  Keep JvR for the run.

At this point there's no reason we shouldn't be running a Martin-Moore-Komarov 4th line. He deserves to be there. I wouldn't have wanted to do that earlier because it nerfs his trade value but he's doing that all on his own with his play. Even with Matthews out I'd still run that line and try Kapanen or Leivo in the top-9.

Yeah, I've pushed the "I want the best defensive forward on the shutdown line" for a while but I'm no longer in that boat anymore. 

He needs to start on the 4th line, and be used higher up in the lineup in high-leverage defensive situations (ie, late in a game with the lead, defensive zone draws)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on December 13, 2017, 04:19:37 PM
Komarov has had just 1 game in the past 15 where his CF% was over 50%. And that was against Arizona and they're barely a NHL team. Basically ditto for Kadri, although he squeaked past 50% in one extra game by a single shot attempt. Komarov's at 38.2% in possession in his last 15 games and Kadri's at 41.6%. Kadri has 4 5-on-5 points in those games, Komarov has 0. Those are brutal numbers.

This is a crazy idea, I know, but maybe try not playing them together?

I understand the whole "Kadri's our shutdown center and future Selke-winner" talk, but he's also probably the most versatile offensive player on the team. I'd like to see Marleau-Kadri-Marner/Brown. Still defensively responsible, but with enough offensive talent to make stuff happen.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on December 13, 2017, 04:39:00 PM
Honestly, I would trade Komarov and slot Leivo or Kapanen there.  I know we're going for it, but he just doesn't seem to be contributing a whole lot this year.  Try to make something off him and put in a hungry young guy.

Edit: and I would same the same for Bozak.  Keep JvR for the run.

At this point there's no reason we shouldn't be running a Martin-Moore-Komarov 4th line. He deserves to be there. I wouldn't have wanted to do that earlier because it nerfs his trade value but he's doing that all on his own with his play. Even with Matthews out I'd still run that line and try Kapanen or Leivo in the top-9.

Komarov has had just 1 game in the past 15 where his CF% was over 50%. And that was against Arizona and they're barely a NHL team. Basically ditto for Kadri, although he squeaked past 50% in one extra game by a single shot attempt. Komarov's at 38.2% in possession in his last 15 games and Kadri's at 41.6%. Kadri has 4 5-on-5 points in those games, Komarov has 0. Those are brutal numbers.

This is a crazy idea, I know, but maybe try not playing them together?

I understand the whole "Kadri's our shutdown center and future Selke-winner" talk, but he's also probably the most versatile offensive player on the team. I'd like to see Marleau-Kadri-Marner/Brown. Still defensively responsible, but with enough offensive talent to make stuff happen.

And it's not like Komarov wouldn't get any ice-time if he's demoted to the fourth line, given his value on the PK and the way Babcock plays the fourth line.

Having him on the second/first line absolutely torpedoes the offence of that line (to an astounding extent really - how can you go 30+ games without accidentally getting a primary assist?), so there's no justification for keeping him there.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on December 13, 2017, 06:37:38 PM

MLSE is buying the Argos, news which is a bit surprising as I'd really thought they bought them a few years ago.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on December 13, 2017, 06:41:18 PM

MLSE is buying the Argos, news which is a bit surprising as I'd really thought they bought them a few years ago.
Man I just posted on this a minute ago on Rumours thread, how strange. Thanks Nik for the update. Wonder when the Jays will come into the fold.
For the Argos this is exactly what the CFL or soon to be NFL needs.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on December 13, 2017, 10:57:41 PM
Lads had their skate today downtown St. Paul organized by Gardiner's dad. In case you're wondering the two netminders are local HS students.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzErF133rw0
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 14, 2017, 12:43:11 PM
Numbers that I didn't bother to look up:

Not that I think Babcock's lineup decisions are the end-all and be-all, but clearly the priority for him is different than what most of us expect.

These deployment decisions read to me as someone who knows the team is already on pace to make the playoffs and is just saving energy. He doesn't care about winning via insurmountable scores (like I want us to), but happy to gut out a heavy road stretch in December with teaching the team how to grind out boring games (coaches hate excitement, it would seem). His goal is not to see how many goals Matthews, Nylander, and Marner can score in a single season, which is unfortunate for the fans, but maybe fortunate for our Cap.

If anything, it looks a lot like the more recent Team Canada Olympics Mens tactics: march up ice and jump on a mistake; unfortunately, our team is not quite as replete with talent.

We're not generating off our breakouts and not establishing the cycle. Someone on Reddit noted something that might point to why we're getting stymied in the NZ: we can come out of the blueline, but there's nothing to pass to after the red line because our wingers are generally standing still at the OZ blue line, instead of circling to present new lanes.

Check out this analysis of Carolina's system (https://www.canescountry.com/2017/11/11/16636800/systems-analyst-carolina-hurricanes-bill-peters-puck-possession-corsi-jaccob-slavin-noah-hanifin) (which is basically Babcock's done better). The defense hang onto the puck to look for options. The Leafs give themselves very limited, stationary options (this is why their stretch passes failed so regularly).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 14, 2017, 02:22:30 PM
These deployment decisions read to me as someone who knows the team is already on pace to make the playoffs and is just saving energy. He doesn't care about winning via insurmountable scores (like I want us to), but happy to gut out a heavy road stretch in December with teaching the team how to grind out boring games (coaches hate excitement, it would seem). His goal is not to see how many goals Matthews, Nylander, and Marner can score in a single season, which is unfortunate for the fans, but maybe fortunate for our Cap.

I think this is a case where you might be trying to work too hard to positively justify a weird Babcock decision. I think most of us seem to agree that we changed or tweaked our system around November 1st. That's when we started playing a more dump and chase style. That's when we started to see stranger line-up and deployment decisions. And that was 12 games into the season when we were 7-5. Babcock absolutely did not think we had a playoff spot locked up at that point.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on December 14, 2017, 02:56:36 PM
Agreed Carlton, the optimist in me wants to agree with herman, but at this point I think a significant chunk of it is wishful thinking.

It feels like those singing a positive tune (not herman and not on this site) are using a narrower and narrower slice of data to do so.

Ive gone on record as being a hardcore Babcock fan before, but the level of deference to authority going on right now is pretty shocking.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 14, 2017, 03:07:27 PM
Agreed Carlton, the optimist in me wants to agree with herman, but at this point I think a significant chunk of it is wishful thinking.

It feels like those singing a positive tune (not herman and not on this site) are using a narrower and narrower slice of data to do so.

Ive gone on record as being a hardcore Babcock fan before, but the level of deference to authority going on right now is pretty shocking.

And, it's not like those of us who are being critical don't understand why he's trying these things, or what he's trying to accomplish. We're just seeing that, if it wasn't for the exceptional goaltending the team has receive, it would not have produced positive results in terms of wins and losses, because the on-ice representation of the strategy has been, in a word, poor.

I don't see too many people calling for him to be fired. Just for him to try something different than what he has over the last 6+ weeks.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 14, 2017, 03:19:51 PM
These deployment decisions read to me as someone who knows the team is already on pace to make the playoffs and is just saving energy. He doesn't care about winning via insurmountable scores (like I want us to), but happy to gut out a heavy road stretch in December with teaching the team how to grind out boring games (coaches hate excitement, it would seem). His goal is not to see how many goals Matthews, Nylander, and Marner can score in a single season, which is unfortunate for the fans, but maybe fortunate for our Cap.

I think this is a case where you might be trying to work too hard to positively justify a weird Babcock decision. I think most of us seem to agree that we changed or tweaked our system around November 1st. That's when we started playing a more dump and chase style. That's when we started to see stranger line-up and deployment decisions. And that was 12 games into the season when we were 7-5. Babcock absolutely did not think we had a playoff spot locked up at that point.

If I had worked harder, maybe I would've seen that point. Sad panda.

Although to be fair to myself (and for the sake of this joke), we're in the same division as Ottawa, Florida, Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo, and Boston. I daresay we were clear of the pack by game 5.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 14, 2017, 03:57:30 PM
Agreed Carlton, the optimist in me wants to agree with herman, but at this point I think a significant chunk of it is wishful thinking.

It feels like those singing a positive tune (not herman and not on this site) are using a narrower and narrower slice of data to do so.

Ive gone on record as being a hardcore Babcock fan before, but the level of deference to authority going on right now is pretty shocking.

I think that's fair too; sometimes I think to myself, why do I bother trying to justify what is happening and why does it feel like I'm grasping at straws.

The thing is, this is pretty similar to what I would do as the coach (and front office) if I'm trying to create a player/talent-agnostic program of success. I'd draft for potential and talent, but I wouldn't want to let the ultra-talented dictate the terms of the team's play the way it did 4-5 years ago.

I'd want to recognize results, but not necessarily judge by goal results when evaluating. I'd want players to learn the structure first so they'd know when and how best to freewheel and use their creativity and gifts.

So I'm not really all that put off that Nylander is getting bum minutes and garbage lines (relatively speaking). He hasn't ever had to play defense before because he's been too offensively good since he picked up a stick. I don't want him to be just a JvR (as valuable as that is). The fact that he is even being developed should indicate how much potential the team sees in his abilities. You don't see JvR or Bozak being taught, or even tasked, with playing better defense, because they're expendables.

This is not to say everything is coming up roses; they're struggling and only winning on Andersen's stellar streak of play. I think winning while playing poorly is the worst thing that can happen to a team and I was glad we lost to Philadelphia after getting outworked and a bit out-lucked. I think their next set of adjustments should be learning how to generate while playing this tight defensively (e.g. opening up options, smarter dump ins, box out carrying lanes).

Often we judge a team as if it's a finished product; I think we're on the first step of something really promising.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on December 14, 2017, 04:51:38 PM
Agreed Carlton, the optimist in me wants to agree with herman, but at this point I think a significant chunk of it is wishful thinking.

It feels like those singing a positive tune (not herman and not on this site) are using a narrower and narrower slice of data to do so.

Ive gone on record as being a hardcore Babcock fan before, but the level of deference to authority going on right now is pretty shocking.

And, it's not like those of us who are being critical don't understand why he's trying these things, or what he's trying to accomplish. We're just seeing that, if it wasn't for the exceptional goaltending the team has receive, it would not have produced positive results in terms of wins and losses, because the on-ice representation of the strategy has been, in a word, poor.

I don't see too many people calling for him to be fired. Just for him to try something different than what he has over the last 6+ weeks.

And during their 7-5 start if Andersen didn't play like ass, maybe the team wouldn't be making those changes in the first place.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 15, 2017, 08:48:30 AM
And during their 7-5 start if Andersen didn't play like ass, maybe the team wouldn't be making those changes in the first place.

Yup. The Leafs had a pretty good October. Sure, they needed to tighten up a little bit defensively, but if Andersen didn't have his annual 'start-the-season-in-November' moment a lot of those would have been masked. Nobody is expecting this team to be the best in the league defensively. They were playing to their strengths. That same style of play is what got the team into the playoffs last year and almost beat the Caps.

Babcock overreacts to all those games where we gave up a ton of goals by getting the team to play to their weaknesses and Andersen's play then masks how awful that makes the team look and we pick up more wins than we should be.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 15, 2017, 08:56:40 AM
If anything, it looks a lot like the more recent Team Canada Olympics Mens tactics: march up ice and jump on a mistake; unfortunately, our team is not quite as replete with talent.

You can't coach arguably the greatest hockey line-up ever assembled the same way you'd coach a random NHL team though. Just like Babcock can't coach the Leafs the same way he used to coach the Red Wings. They're two entirely different teams. You have to realize what a teams strengths and weaknesses are and coach to those specifically.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 15, 2017, 09:26:53 AM
If anything, it looks a lot like the more recent Team Canada Olympics Mens tactics: march up ice and jump on a mistake; unfortunately, our team is not quite as replete with talent.

You can't coach arguably the greatest hockey line-up ever assembled the same way you'd coach a random NHL team though. Just like Babcock can't coach the Leafs the same way he used to coach the Red Wings. They're two entirely different teams. You have to realize what a teams strengths and weaknesses are and coach to those specifically.

I don't disagree, and despite what I've been saying, I don't think Babcock is entirely on the right track. All I'm saying is he's asking the team to play to their weakness, theoretically, to turn it into less of a weakness. It's a bit like going into a job interview, right? Dress for the role you want, not the one you have.

After last night's game, and after the game in Philly, Babcock said he liked what he saw for the most part and that the Leafs played well but didn't execute in certain areas. My initial reaction was, "wut." Under the assumption that he's not lying, that reads as the players are getting into the right places and generally intending to do what the coach wants, but puck luck and the other team's better execution prevented the results consistently. Obviously, not know exactly what the coach is asking of them means this is just speculation as usual.

We saw shades of what this team can do in the third period. Formation was tight and options were open, but passes just missed (or went to the wrong sides of recipients), or the other team made good reads. I know urgency and compete are just cliches thrown to the media, but that's what quick execution should look like. We look slow because we still have to think about where to be.

As much as I'd like to run and gun all day (e'ryday), that's no more sustainable than dump n' chase. Come playoff time, there is no space to wheel and the team needs to learn how to make their own space. I'd rather they try to learn it now and take the lumps in the regular season than in round 1.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on December 15, 2017, 09:40:09 AM
I don't buy the narrative that there is no space to wheel in the playoffs. If you maintain possession and move the puck effectively, you create space to wheel/move. If you chip the puck down the ice (i.e. give the puck away) and are forever trying to get possession back, then you're eliminating that ability to create space. This is all the more pronounced when your team is built to rush the puck, not forecheck, and is clearly undermining the play of guys like Marner.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: OldTimeHockey on December 15, 2017, 09:42:15 AM
As much as I'd like to run and gun all day (e'ryday), that's no more sustainable than dump n' chase. Come playoff time, there is no space to wheel and the team needs to learn how to make their own space. I'd rather they try to learn it now and take the lumps in the regular season than in round 1.

We have a winner.

This is 100% correct. As much as we can say that Andersen's poor play lost us some games in October, anyone that couldn't see the glaring issues in the teams play that month mustn't of been watching very closely.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: OldTimeHockey on December 15, 2017, 09:43:42 AM
undermining the play of guys like Marner.

You speak as if Marner had a fantastic October when the team was playing more the style you're requesting them to play now?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 15, 2017, 09:50:34 AM
I don't buy the narrative that there is no space to wheel in the playoffs. If you maintain possession and move the puck effectively, you create space to wheel/move. If you chip the puck down the ice (i.e. give the puck away) and are forever trying to get possession back, then you're eliminating that ability to create space. This is all the more pronounced when your team is built to rush the puck, not forecheck, and is clearly undermining the play of guys like Marner.

I think it's a mistake to assume dump and chase is the final tactic Babcock is pursuing. In my mind, it is a step towards a rounded attack. We already know this team knows how to rush the puck, but we also know this team can be stopped at the blue line on the rush, occasionally.  The rush works best as a counter-attack on a NZ/DZ turnover, but if your backend is a sieve there's no rush anyway.

DnC is a valid option if the defense is standing still; making it temporarily option 1 for awhile is a way to get the players to learn how to do it effectively. They've already switched to diagonals vs strong side dump ins so the defenders are forced to reassess assignments while F1 beelines for generating chaos.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 15, 2017, 09:51:36 AM
As much as I'd like to run and gun all day (e'ryday), that's no more sustainable than dump n' chase. Come playoff time, there is no space to wheel and the team needs to learn how to make their own space. I'd rather they try to learn it now and take the lumps in the regular season than in round 1.

We have a winner.

Remind me again, who won the last two Stanley Cups?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on December 15, 2017, 09:52:07 AM
undermining the play of guys like Marner.

You speak as if Marner had a fantastic October when the team was playing more the style you're requesting them to play now?

In general, I try not to let the outcome impact my assessment. Marner had a cold start, but is far more likely to play well under a possession-based system than under a chip and chase system. Ditto for the rest of the team.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 15, 2017, 09:56:49 AM
https://theathletic.com/185679/2017/12/15/mirtle-if-mike-babcock-loves-the-way-the-leafs-are-playing-thats-a-bit-concerning/

Mirtle has concerns about Babcock thinking the Leafs are playing fine.

What I'm seeing from his post-games and some comments the players have made recently, as well as how some teams are playing... the Leafs don't care about raw Corsi. They think they've cracked the code on shot quality and are structuring accordingly (just like the Carlyle days!).

A lot of teams have started just firing the puck from anywhere. The Leafs are always trying to shoot from the circles and in (but don't always get in there); except for Polak, who shoots always (into legs). Leafs defense only take shots at the net from the tops of the circles and in (if possible), otherwise it's a bump up the wall, or if there's traffic they take a deliberately wide shot. Shots that lead to tips don't count as shot attempts (Corsi).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: OldTimeHockey on December 15, 2017, 10:00:24 AM
As much as I'd like to run and gun all day (e'ryday), that's no more sustainable than dump n' chase. Come playoff time, there is no space to wheel and the team needs to learn how to make their own space. I'd rather they try to learn it now and take the lumps in the regular season than in round 1.

We have a winner.

Remind me again, who won the last two Stanley Cups?
Pittsburgh, but they were far from a run and gun team that won games on the backs of their offense.
Matt Murray had a GAA of 2.08 and 1.70 in the last two playoffs. The team had maybe one game per series where they lit it up offensively(6-0 over Nashville and 7-0 Ottawa).

Note the goals given up in those games. Run and gun doesn't lead to shutouts. It leads to 5-4 wins. As fun as that is, I prefer the 6-0 game or the 3-1 game out of a team. It shows they're taking care of both ends of the ice.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 15, 2017, 10:00:33 AM
As much as I'd like to run and gun all day (e'ryday), that's no more sustainable than dump n' chase. Come playoff time, there is no space to wheel and the team needs to learn how to make their own space. I'd rather they try to learn it now and take the lumps in the regular season than in round 1.

We have a winner.

Remind me again, who won the last two Stanley Cups?

Of last season's playoff teams, Pittsburgh had the second worst CF%. Their other stats suggest they were playing some kind of shot-quality game too.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: OldTimeHockey on December 15, 2017, 10:02:05 AM
undermining the play of guys like Marner.

You speak as if Marner had a fantastic October when the team was playing more the style you're requesting them to play now?

In general, I try not to let the outcome impact my assessment. Marner had a cold start, but is far more likely to play well under a possession-based system than under a chip and chase system. Ditto for the rest of the team.

Sure he will. There's no doubt about it that every team in the NHL for the most part will play better under a possession-based system, but if you trade possession back and forth because you're flying up and down the ice with no concern for defense you're going to lose as much as you win. It's a recipe for disaster, not success.

Like herman stated, this isn't an finished product you're seeing. It's a work in progress.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 15, 2017, 10:07:21 AM
Pittsburgh, but they were far from a run and gun team that won games on the backs of their offense.
Matt Murray had a GAA of 2.08 and 1.70 in the last two playoffs. The team had maybe one game per series where they lit it up offensively(6-0 over Nashville and 7-0 Ottawa).

Note the goals given up in those games. Run and gun doesn't lead to shutouts. It leads to 5-4 wins. As fun as that is, I prefer the 6-0 game or the 3-1 game out of a team. It shows they're taking care of both ends of the ice.

They were 3rd in goals per game in the 15/16 regular season, 2nd in goals per game in the playoffs. And they were 1st in goals per game in the 16/17 regular season, and 1st in the playoffs. Offence was undoubtedly their biggest strength.

And I think that we're getting into a bit of a strawman's argument here. Nobody is saying that the October Leafs were perfect and that we should continue to try and win games 5-4 every night. "Run and gun" isn't something that exists anywhere in the NHL anymore.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: OldTimeHockey on December 15, 2017, 10:11:13 AM
Pittsburgh, but they were far from a run and gun team that won games on the backs of their offense.
Matt Murray had a GAA of 2.08 and 1.70 in the last two playoffs. The team had maybe one game per series where they lit it up offensively(6-0 over Nashville and 7-0 Ottawa).

Note the goals given up in those games. Run and gun doesn't lead to shutouts. It leads to 5-4 wins. As fun as that is, I prefer the 6-0 game or the 3-1 game out of a team. It shows they're taking care of both ends of the ice.

They were 3rd in goals per game in the 15/16 regular season, 2nd in goals per game in the playoffs. And they were 1st in goals per game in the 16/17 regular season, and 1st in the playoffs. Offence was undoubtedly their biggest strength.

And I think that we're getting into a bit of a strawman's argument here. Nobody is saying that the October Leafs were perfect and that we should continue to try and win games 5-4 every night. "Run and gun" isn't something that exists anywhere in the NHL anymore.

And? Pitt scores lots of goals? So will Toronto eventually. They just have to do it the right way.

As for "run and gun" what would you call the way Toronto was playing in October?

It seems to me that many are asking for the Leafs to fix their issues they had in October without changing the way they play the game.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 15, 2017, 10:38:03 AM
As for "run and gun" what would you call the way Toronto was playing in October?

It seems to me that many are asking for the Leafs to fix their issues they had in October without changing the way they play the game.

Let's talk "run and gun" for a second. You would agree that this sort of style would result in a large number of shot attempts going both ways, correct? Here are some Leafs stats from October and November/December:

GP   CF/60   CA/60   Sh%   Sv%   
October1261.15 (9th)57.95 (12th)11.11 (1st)90.32 (27th)
Nov/Dec2158.07 (15th)61.47 (26th)8.66 (7th)94.32 (3rd)

The Leafs, apparently playing "run and gun", had just the 9th highest shot attempts rate and the 12th lowest shots against against rate.

The Leafs, playing "safe" dump and chase hockey, are of course getting loss shot attempts now but also allowing way more shot attempts in their own end.

The Leafs weren't playing 80s hockey in October. They were playing with speed. They were playing with controlled entries and controlled exits. They were playing with the puck on their sticks as often as they could. Those are all things that they've deliberately stopped doing since November 1st. They were also making dumb mistakes defensively. Those weren't systemic though, they were just dumb human errors. And they were running with sky high shooting and save percentages on opposite ends of the spectrum which led to very high goal totals for both teams playing.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 15, 2017, 11:54:53 AM
More discussion fuel for "this current structure is not great", but also, "the Leafs don't know how to play defense yet". The tweet-thread talks about the dangers of 'binning' data by arbitrary lines the way Scoring Chances (home plate), and High Danger Scoring Chances can skew the read.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 15, 2017, 12:19:35 PM
More discussion fuel for "this current structure is not great", but also, "the Leafs don't know how to play defense yet". The tweet-thread talks about the dangers of 'binning' data by arbitrary lines the way Scoring Chances (home plate), and High Danger Scoring Chances can skew the read.

That deep red areas between the hashmarks is as bad as the deep blue area in front of the net is good. Those are all high danger areas.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: mr grieves on December 15, 2017, 01:27:02 PM
The Leafs weren't playing 80s hockey in October. They were playing with speed. They were playing with controlled entries and controlled exits. They were playing with the puck on their sticks as often as they could. Those are all things that they've deliberately stopped doing since November 1st. They were also making dumb mistakes defensively. Those weren't systemic though, they were just dumb human errors. And they were running with sky high shooting and save percentages on opposite ends of the spectrum which led to very high goal totals for both teams playing.

Also, since then, they've altered the lineup to suit their "safer" style. Defensively responsible but offensively inept slugs are playing lots of minutes, stuck next to the talent, talented guys are having minutes cut and not being put in a position to succeed (or even just get going), etc. The results they've been getting aren't an endorsement of these changes -- they're driven by percentages, Andersen's hot run -- and the product's suffering.

I've stopped watching. Not going to take 3 hours out of my day to watch Leo Komarov do nothing.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 15, 2017, 03:26:34 PM
More data grist for the mill!

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/12/15/the-toronto-maple-leafs-change-in-playing-style-separating-fact-from-fiction/

Quote
Clearly, the Leafs could not be successful playing an open style like they did out of the gate with such a dreadful save percentage over an entire season, especially in the playoffs. They cut out some of the risk and scaled back the intensity in some of their forechecking to add safer elements.

They didnt improve defensively. They just got better goaltending.

Theyre less aggressive in the offensive zone there is less 2-1-2 and theyre not as frantic underneath the goal line, while adopting a prevent-style 1-2-2 in the neutral zone (Id bet a tracker could see more controlled exits from Leafs opponents lately).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 15, 2017, 03:28:37 PM
More discussion fuel for "this current structure is not great", but also, "the Leafs don't know how to play defense yet". The tweet-thread talks about the dangers of 'binning' data by arbitrary lines the way Scoring Chances (home plate), and High Danger Scoring Chances can skew the read.

That deep red areas between the hashmarks is as bad as the deep blue area in front of the net is good. Those are all high danger areas.

Yup. The red used to creep right up to the crease before, but the area between the dots is arguably more dangerous.

This follow-up spells it out more descriptively
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on December 15, 2017, 04:36:08 PM
As for "run and gun" what would you call the way Toronto was playing in October?

It seems to me that many are asking for the Leafs to fix their issues they had in October without changing the way they play the game.

Let's talk "run and gun" for a second. You would agree that this sort of style would result in a large number of shot attempts going both ways, correct? Here are some Leafs stats from October and November/December:

GP   CF/60   CA/60   Sh%   Sv%   
October1261.15 (9th)57.95 (12th)11.11 (1st)90.32 (27th)
Nov/Dec2158.07 (15th)61.47 (26th)8.66 (7th)94.32 (3rd)

The Leafs, apparently playing "run and gun", had just the 9th highest shot attempts rate and the 12th lowest shots against against rate.

The Leafs, playing "safe" dump and chase hockey, are of course getting loss shot attempts now but also allowing way more shot attempts in their own end.

The Leafs weren't playing 80s hockey in October. They were playing with speed. They were playing with controlled entries and controlled exits. They were playing with the puck on their sticks as often as they could. Those are all things that they've deliberately stopped doing since November 1st. They were also making dumb mistakes defensively. Those weren't systemic though, they were just dumb human errors. And they were running with sky high shooting and save percentages on opposite ends of the spectrum which led to very high goal totals for both teams playing.

So, if we assume that Babcock isn't an idiot, and he's watching the same games we are, why is he using this strategy?

Is he trying to show a different look, and then change it up later when goaltending cools off? 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on December 16, 2017, 07:28:38 PM
To the system concerns people have had, Dellow has an interesting look at it in the Athletic.

Quote
In Toronto's game against Carolina a few weeks back, the Maple Leafs won 11 defensive zone faceoffs. They proceeded to get out-attempted 17-0 on those shifts. That -17 is the second worst collection of defensive zone wins a team has put together this decade.

...

Watching the video, it looks like Toronto had a pretty simple approach: win the faceoff, fly the zone, try to hit a streaking forward to tip the puck in or, even better, with a pass.

Unless the goal was icings and turnovers, it didn't work.

https://theathletic.com/184961/2017/12/16/dellow-why-are-the-maple-leafs-such-a-mediocre-possession-team/
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on December 16, 2017, 11:21:45 PM
As for "run and gun" what would you call the way Toronto was playing in October?

It seems to me that many are asking for the Leafs to fix their issues they had in October without changing the way they play the game.

Let's talk "run and gun" for a second. You would agree that this sort of style would result in a large number of shot attempts going both ways, correct? Here are some Leafs stats from October and November/December:

GP   CF/60   CA/60   Sh%   Sv%   
October1261.15 (9th)57.95 (12th)11.11 (1st)90.32 (27th)
Nov/Dec2158.07 (15th)61.47 (26th)8.66 (7th)94.32 (3rd)

The Leafs, apparently playing "run and gun", had just the 9th highest shot attempts rate and the 12th lowest shots against against rate.

The Leafs, playing "safe" dump and chase hockey, are of course getting loss shot attempts now but also allowing way more shot attempts in their own end.

The Leafs weren't playing 80s hockey in October. They were playing with speed. They were playing with controlled entries and controlled exits. They were playing with the puck on their sticks as often as they could. Those are all things that they've deliberately stopped doing since November 1st. They were also making dumb mistakes defensively. Those weren't systemic though, they were just dumb human errors. And they were running with sky high shooting and save percentages on opposite ends of the spectrum which led to very high goal totals for both teams playing.

So, if we assume that Babcock isn't an idiot, and he's watching the same games we are, why is he using this strategy?

Is he trying to show a different look, and then change it up later when goaltending cools off?

I think the big thing to remember is that a good coach can still be biased and make poor decisions.  We are looking for logic behind his decisions and sometimes the logic they Babcock is using is simply flawed.

In October every odd man rush seemed to end up in the Leafs net.   Now Andersen is standing on his head.  If Andersen could get his game going on day 1 I wonder if we see a big change in style as of November.  What I am disappointed to see is the leafs stopped using the high flip into the neutral zone.  Instead of simply dumping the puck you flip the puck, keeping the defender facing the play to watch the puck biut giving your forwards more time to chase instead of retrieve in the corners.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: OldTimeHockey on December 17, 2017, 08:22:16 AM
As for "run and gun" what would you call the way Toronto was playing in October?

It seems to me that many are asking for the Leafs to fix their issues they had in October without changing the way they play the game.

Let's talk "run and gun" for a second. You would agree that this sort of style would result in a large number of shot attempts going both ways, correct? Here are some Leafs stats from October and November/December:

GP   CF/60   CA/60   Sh%   Sv%   
October1261.15 (9th)57.95 (12th)11.11 (1st)90.32 (27th)
Nov/Dec2158.07 (15th)61.47 (26th)8.66 (7th)94.32 (3rd)

The Leafs, apparently playing "run and gun", had just the 9th highest shot attempts rate and the 12th lowest shots against against rate.

The Leafs, playing "safe" dump and chase hockey, are of course getting loss shot attempts now but also allowing way more shot attempts in their own end.

The Leafs weren't playing 80s hockey in October. They were playing with speed. They were playing with controlled entries and controlled exits. They were playing with the puck on their sticks as often as they could. Those are all things that they've deliberately stopped doing since November 1st. They were also making dumb mistakes defensively. Those weren't systemic though, they were just dumb human errors. And they were running with sky high shooting and save percentages on opposite ends of the spectrum which led to very high goal totals for both teams playing.

So, if we assume that Babcock isn't an idiot, and he's watching the same games we are, why is he using this strategy?

Is he trying to show a different look, and then change it up later when goaltending cools off?

I think the big thing to remember is that a good coach can still be biased and make poor decisions.  We are looking for logic behind his decisions and sometimes the logic they Babcock is using is simply flawed.

In October every odd man rush seemed to end up in the Leafs net.   Now Andersen is standing on his head.  If Andersen could get his game going on day 1 I wonder if we see a big change in style as of November.  What I am disappointed to see is the leafs stopped using the high flip into the neutral zone.  Instead of simply dumping the puck you flip the puck, keeping the defender facing the play to watch the puck biut giving your forwards more time to chase instead of retrieve in the corners.

See, I hate the high flip into the neutral zone almost as much as the dump and chase. I'd say there's a 75% chance you're going to lose the puck on the high flip "breakout" as your forwards are facing up ice and their defence are facing the oncoming puck.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 17, 2017, 11:50:39 AM

MARTY TIME
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 17, 2017, 12:27:14 PM
Uh that probably means Polak in the top 4.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on December 17, 2017, 12:57:39 PM
I'm assuming this means Carrick is in......right?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on December 17, 2017, 12:58:42 PM
Gardener and Carrick are reunited Herman!
Reilly-Hainsey.  Borgnine-Polak

Unfortunately JVR-Bozak-Marner is still a thing.
Hyman-Nylander-Brown.  Komarov-Kadri-Marleau.  Moore-Martin-Kapanen.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 17, 2017, 02:11:18 PM
Gardener and Carrick are reunited Herman!

I hope it sticks!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 17, 2017, 02:56:53 PM

MARTY TIME

We'll look back on this as the Turning Point that pivoted us onto the road to the Cup.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 17, 2017, 05:35:18 PM
Uh that probably means Polak in the top 4.

Not top 4, but think of how much PK time he's about to get...
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on December 17, 2017, 06:04:40 PM
The bigger question is Auston Matthews and when he's coming back.  He has not looked like himself at all this season aside from the very beginning.  Honestly, if guys like Martin and Polak are going to stand around and do nothing while Matthews takes that kind of punishment, I don't know what they're doing in the lineup, quite frankly.  There are way more skilled guys to replace both of them.  I'm starting to wonder about Komarov also.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 17, 2017, 06:25:59 PM
Uh that probably means Polak in the top 4.

Not top 4, but think of how much PK time he's about to get...

They count PK minutes when you're in the box?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 18, 2017, 08:57:40 AM
Per Babcock, Zaitsev will out be for at least 2 weeks: http://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/matthews-a-bit-closer-to-return-but-zaitsev-out-two-weeks

Also from that article:

Quote
The way I look at it, it creates an opportunity for (Connor) Carrick, who has been waiting all year. The balls in his court and we get to watch him.

All year? Carrick played 17 of the first 22 games this season. Did... did Babcock actually forget he existed?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on December 18, 2017, 09:58:43 AM
He's confusing Carrick with Corrado, which is understandable because they both start with C and shoot right-handed.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 18, 2017, 10:38:42 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/12/18/16787290/toronto-maple-leafs-nobody-loves-leo-komarov-right-now

I like Katya's take on Komarov's recent usage:
Quote
So rather than say that Babcock has been setting out to play Komarov more, the reality is hes being used, somewhat indirectly, to make up the slack with Matthews out of the lineup. I suppose I could say hes replaced Matthews on the power play if I wanted to stir things up, but thats not really true. Hes the next man up at the bottom end. Perhaps you as a fan want to see Josh Leivo or Kasperi Kapanen in that role instead, and in the case of Leivo, that has happened. In the case of Kapanen, hes played on some other team all year. Its not shocking he didnt immediately get power play time on the Leafs.

Much more meaningful is the increase in shutdown line duties for Komarov at five-on-five with Matthews out, and in general as the Leafs have been struggling defensively. Komarov isnt on this team to score goals. Hes there to make the Kadri line succeed at shutting down the toughest opposition lines.

That is to say Komarov is not being used deliberately more than better players, but that the situations where he is deployed are coming up more often during this stretch (especially with Matthews out). Every player's deployment is situationally curated this season.

There's no drop-in replacement on our team for Komarov's role that's not already occupied elsewhere, and certainly no call-up that would warrant waiving someone. Just ride out this massive road stretch. Kappy will probably start picking up some PP time if he keeps getting into the lineup (esp. over Leivo). Hiller probably wants him to get a few practice reps before throwing him in there (it's a different-ish setup than the Marlies).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 18, 2017, 02:27:33 PM
Are we tired of dump talk yet?

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/12/18/toronto-maple-leafs-notebook-first-bout-of-adversity/

Anthony has a pretty good read on what the forwards could be doing better to alleviate the need to dump and chase so often. He also talks about our current stretch of the schedule being basically the worst it will be this season.

Edit: the solution is something mentioned earlier: our forwards are collecting themselves at the blue line and presenting stationary targets, which leaves the breakout player with the sole option of dumping in. Having the forwards cycle to get open instead of standing still could help open up new lanes.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on December 18, 2017, 04:00:40 PM
Are we tired of dump talk yet?

I'm reading this from under my glass coffee table, so no, not at all.

Danke.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on December 18, 2017, 04:23:37 PM

Dump and chase? More like Dumb and Chase.

Boom. Roasted. Someone high five me.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 18, 2017, 04:37:56 PM
Dump and chase? More like Dumb and Chase.

Boom. Roasted. Someone high five me.

(https://78.media.tumblr.com/3646560a0e16a89e88c9fbe21d75245b/tumblr_noyt3rLd0c1s0my1wo1_500.gif)

And, no, I don't care that it's the wrong show.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 18, 2017, 04:39:29 PM
Speaking of chasing, did anyone else jump on this?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bell-rogers-telus-price-wars-1.4453573
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on December 18, 2017, 04:41:13 PM
Y'know the last few weeks have been pretty boring hockey until the get behind/third period and I've been miffed about it recently. They certainly have enough guns to go out there and be creative. But now I'm starting to come around to the thinking that this is another growth year. Babs is drilling defense into the creative forwards so much that when the time comes to turn it loose down the road and in their careers, they're dependable 200-ft players. Auston is pretty much already there, but if/when Willy and Mitchy reach the level of offensive finesse with all the other attributes, look out. I have the feeling they're trying to build three complete superstars for the next decade.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on December 18, 2017, 05:10:30 PM
And, no, I don't care that it's the wrong show.

Is it? That's what I was thinking of.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on December 18, 2017, 05:22:55 PM
And, no, I don't care that it's the wrong show.

Is it? That's what I was thinking of.

You guys are roommates, so I'm not sure why it is that you communicate only through these forums.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 18, 2017, 05:36:21 PM
And, no, I don't care that it's the wrong show.

Is it? That's what I was thinking of.

I'm pretty sure "Boom. Roasted." is not a Barneyism.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 18, 2017, 06:16:54 PM
And, no, I don't care that it's the wrong show.

Is it? That's what I was thinking of.

I'm pretty sure "Boom. Roasted." is not a Barneyism.

"Boom. Roasted." is Michael Scott (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZ4stXblNkI=).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 18, 2017, 06:30:06 PM
And, no, I don't care that it's the wrong show.

Is it? That's what I was thinking of.

I'm pretty sure "Boom. Roasted." is not a Barneyism.

"Boom. Roasted." is Michael Scott (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZ4stXblNkI=).

Yes. That is what I was strongly implying.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Nik the Trik on December 18, 2017, 06:47:31 PM

Man if it wasn't bad enough that my brain is nothing but a collection of pop culture references now even that's starting to slip.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 18, 2017, 06:52:27 PM
Man if it wasn't bad enough that my brain is nothing but a collection of pop culture references now even that's starting to slip.

Time makes fools of us all.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on December 18, 2017, 08:07:58 PM

Tomorrow is guaranteed Leafs (Arenas) win day. You can tell them Zee told you so
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 19, 2017, 01:26:41 PM

This is a weird stance for somebody who apparently doesn't care about NHL wins in December to take.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bates on December 19, 2017, 05:35:19 PM
Does anybody really believe that kids playing in games where score isn't kept actually don't now the score? Or at minimum who's winning?  I see taking the emphasis off winning at a young age but I don't think you can stop kids from trying to win, that's a coach issue.

This is a weird stance for somebody who apparently doesn't care about NHL wins in December to take.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on December 20, 2017, 09:23:18 AM
Nothing wrong with trying to win and score. I think the key is to teach kids how to be gracious winners and losers. You can't teach that if you don't have winners and losers.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 20, 2017, 09:33:26 AM
Man if it wasn't bad enough that my brain is nothing but a collection of pop culture references now even that's starting to slip.

Time makes fools of us all.

It took me some time but I think I found what Nik was thinking of:
(https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2015-11/4/17/enhanced/webdr07/anigif_original-grid-image-12768-1446677274-4.gif)

Which, if I had known it at the time, would've been a great coup de grace here (http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4599.msg311610#msg311610).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bates on December 20, 2017, 10:04:30 AM
And deal better with coaches who put winning at young age above having fun and developing skills.
  It matters absolutely nothing if you win an under 10 game by shortening your bench and leaving kids behind in sport that can hardly afford to alienate numbers. 
Nothing wrong with trying to win and score. I think the key is to teach kids how to be gracious winners and losers. You can't teach that if you don't have winners and losers.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on December 20, 2017, 11:09:15 AM
And deal better with coaches who put winning at young age above having fun and developing skills.
  It matters absolutely nothing if you win an under 10 game by shortening your bench and leaving kids behind in sport that can hardly afford to alienate numbers. 
Nothing wrong with trying to win and score. I think the key is to teach kids how to be gracious winners and losers. You can't teach that if you don't have winners and losers.

I have coached kids soccer for the past 10 years at multiple levels.  I will say that the problem is not the kids, and it is definitely the coaches/adults involved. 

Removing the score has no impact on the kids.  The know the score, they know who won they know who scored the goals. 

By removing the score they are trying to get coaches to stop coaching to win.  It's a hard thing to do.  I'm a competitive person.  It's hard to watch a team that I coach lose.  The thing is though, if we lose, but I know that every kid got a chance to play as equally as possible, and that every kid had fun, then it's mission accomplished. 

The problem is that there are coaches that can't park that competitive nature, even at the recreational level and it's a real problem.  I have coached soccer games, where if my team scores some goals, I have seen the other coach bench a player because isn't as good as another player he wants to play full time, and at the end of the day, that is wrong at the recreational level.     

I think by removing the score they are trying to engineer a better response from the adults involved with the sport, rather than the kids, which is really sad when you think about it.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on December 20, 2017, 12:39:37 PM
Good point, interdasting.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on December 20, 2017, 02:11:28 PM
And deal better with coaches who put winning at young age above having fun and developing skills.
  It matters absolutely nothing if you win an under 10 game by shortening your bench and leaving kids behind in sport that can hardly afford to alienate numbers. 
Nothing wrong with trying to win and score. I think the key is to teach kids how to be gracious winners and losers. You can't teach that if you don't have winners and losers.

I have coached kids soccer for the past 10 years at multiple levels.  I will say that the problem is not the kids, and it is definitely the coaches/adults involved. 

Removing the score has no impact on the kids.  The know the score, they know who won they know who scored the goals. 

By removing the score they are trying to get coaches to stop coaching to win.  It's a hard thing to do.  I'm a competitive person.  It's hard to watch a team that I coach lose.  The thing is though, if we lose, but I know that every kid got a chance to play as equally as possible, and that every kid had fun, then it's mission accomplished. 

The problem is that there are coaches that can't park that competitive nature, even at the recreational level and it's a real problem.  I have coached soccer games, where if my team scores some goals, I have seen the other coach bench a player because isn't as good as another player he wants to play full time, and at the end of the day, that is wrong at the recreational level.     

I think by removing the score they are trying to engineer a better response from the adults involved with the sport, rather than the kids, which is really sad when you think about it.


I remember when Mr. Walter Gretzky, Wayne's father,  once gave some advice to  a relative of mine whose son was playing in the GTHL by saying ..."Most important...it's gotta be fun.  Gotta keep it fun."  He practically emphasized those words. 

He definitely had a point there.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on December 20, 2017, 07:32:09 PM
When I played high school football and we were highly competitive and wanted to win. If we lost did we cry. Hell no! We just loved to play as hard as we could, even if we lost.  And loved every minute of it.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 20, 2017, 11:08:09 PM
This is a very interesting article on JvR

https://theathletic.com/180409/2017/12/20/james-van-riemsdyk-credits-hall-of-famer-adam-oates-with-helping-take-his-game-to-next-level/

Quote
One thing van Riemsdyk points to is that goalies have their own dedicated off-season coaches, something he believes scorers are going to have to do more to keep up with how much better netminders have become.

[...]

The goalies have been doing that for years, van Riemsdyk said. Its interesting. If you look at the position thats made the most progress in hockey in the last 25, 30 years, its been goaltending. Obviously theyve caught up and surpassed skaters. We wonder, too, if that (extra skills work) is why goal scoring is down.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 21, 2017, 10:52:56 AM
https://theathletic.com/191019/2017/12/20/how-unique-is-jamie-oleksiaks-ability-to-play-the-right-side-despite-being-left-handed/

Pittsburgh recently traded for Oleksiak. Its not directly related to the Leafs, but this article touches on the mechanics of playing weakside on defense, and also the benefits of having good skating giant defensemen (which weve drafted several potentials).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 22, 2017, 10:19:52 AM

Matthews' first full practice since December 9th. A good sign that he'll be ready to return to the line-up tomorrow night. If he misses that one too he'll almost certainly be good to go when the Leafs return from the Christmas break in Arizona on the 28th.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on December 22, 2017, 10:25:38 AM

Matthews' first full practice since December 9th. A good sign that he'll be ready to return to the line-up tomorrow night. If he misses that one too he'll almost certainly be good to go when the Leafs return from the Christmas break in Arizona on the 28th.

Sit Martin, put Komarov on the 4th line, and put Kapanen on the second, and you'd have a really dangerous-looking line-up.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 22, 2017, 10:42:07 AM
Sit Martin, put Komarov on the 4th line, and put Kapanen on the second, and you'd have a really dangerous-looking line-up.

I'd settle for even just swapping Komarov and Brown. This is obviously an insanely small sample size, but the line of Marleau-Kadri-Brown has scored 3 goals together (and given up 0) in just under 9 minutes of even-strength ice time this season. I really think that line could look good at both ends of the ice together.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 22, 2017, 10:57:15 AM
I'd settle for even just swapping Komarov and Brown. This is obviously an insanely small sample size, but the line of Marleau-Kadri-Brown has scored 3 goals together (and given up 0) in just under 9 minutes of even-strength ice time this season. I really think that line could look good at both ends of the ice together.

Yeah, I think that would be a good move. Brown can do a lot of the things Komarov does to help that line, while being a stronger offensive producer. Komarov, meanwhile, would be able to conserve energy for the PK and quality 4th line shifts.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 22, 2017, 11:14:46 AM

Trollolololol lol lol lol lol
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 22, 2017, 11:21:21 AM

Trollolololol lol lol lol lol

Carrick was benched in the 2nd half of the 3rd period against Columbus after he got beat on that goal, so I thought he might have sat here. Guess he's getting a little more rope.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 22, 2017, 11:25:44 AM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/12/22/leafs-links-elliotte-friedman-jvrs-future-toronto-dont-think-hes-underappreciated-internally-think-wants-stay-think-want-stay/

JvR thoughts up there.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 22, 2017, 11:28:51 AM
Carrick was benched in the 2nd half of the 3rd period against Columbus after he got beat on that goal, so I thought he might have sat here. Guess he's getting a little more rope.

I don't even fault Carrick for that goal. He was tackled at the line and had his stick snapped on the play. Carrick still tried to get back to contest the shot, but it was McElhinney playing regular mode. I think his 'benching' had more to do with Babcock trying to 'help' Gardiner, who was having an unsafe game.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on December 22, 2017, 01:07:52 PM
Sit Martin, put Komarov on the 4th line, and put Kapanen on the second, and you'd have a really dangerous-looking line-up.

I'd settle for even just swapping Komarov and Brown. This is obviously an insanely small sample size, but the line of Marleau-Kadri-Brown has scored 3 goals together (and given up 0) in just under 9 minutes of even-strength ice time this season. I really think that line could look good at both ends of the ice together.

I'd be more than happy with that move as well. Sure it's a small sample size, but Komarov's even strength offensive numbers are devastatingly bad even with a large sample size. I don't think it's a crazy to suggest that he's significantly holding the line back, and that demoting him would very likely pay quick dividends.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on December 22, 2017, 01:14:36 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/12/22/leafs-links-elliotte-friedman-jvrs-future-toronto-dont-think-hes-underappreciated-internally-think-wants-stay-think-want-stay/

JvR thoughts up there.

Unless they get him on a steal of a deal I think it would be a mistake to lock JVR up long term for 6 million +. He is not getting younger and is such a one dimensional player that he could pretty quickly be a huge liability if the offence dries up even a bit.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: freer on December 22, 2017, 02:37:43 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/12/22/leafs-links-elliotte-friedman-jvrs-future-toronto-dont-think-hes-underappreciated-internally-think-wants-stay-think-want-stay/

JvR thoughts up there.

Unless they get him on a steal of a deal I think it would be a mistake to lock JVR up long term for 6 million +. He is not getting younger and is such a one dimensional player that he could pretty quickly be a huge liability if the offence dries up even a bit.

Ok so we don't resign him and the likely hood of him being traded is slim if the team is in the playoff hunt. Who in our system is going to replace him. And PLEASE don't say Leivo!!!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Chris on December 22, 2017, 03:20:14 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/12/22/leafs-links-elliotte-friedman-jvrs-future-toronto-dont-think-hes-underappreciated-internally-think-wants-stay-think-want-stay/

JvR thoughts up there.

Unless they get him on a steal of a deal I think it would be a mistake to lock JVR up long term for 6 million +. He is not getting younger and is such a one dimensional player that he could pretty quickly be a huge liability if the offence dries up even a bit.

Ok so we don't resign him and the likely hood of him being traded is slim if the team is in the playoff hunt. Who in our system is going to replace him. And PLEASE don't say Leivo!!!
That's a good question. I think we still really don't know what we have in Leivo. Earlier in the season I was not impressed and would have been happy to see him let go for a pick. But in some of the recent games, I saw some things I liked. I think he deserves some time on a more offensive line, maybe with Matthews or Kadri for a bit. He certainly won't drive a line but he could be a very good complimentary piece (kind of like JVR).

Otherwise...if JVR goes you move Kapanen up (he should really be an everyday player at this point) and hopefully can replace Komarov with someone with more speed and offensive talent. Johnsson maybe? Leivo? So maybe his (JVR's) replacement would be sort of a committee approach where you upgrade a couple of positions from within - none of them being able to replace JVR's production by themselves, but maybe the team overall is stronger.

The other option is to find a free agent or someone who needs a change of scenery from another team.

One player I've lost some of my confidence in is Brown. He works had and is very opportunistic but he really doesn't create much on his own and I've seen him blow a lot of defensive assignments this year, often resulting in goals. I'd prefer him over Komarov on one of the top 3 lines but if you bring Kapanen up and everyone else is healthy...
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: freer on December 22, 2017, 09:49:48 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/12/22/leafs-links-elliotte-friedman-jvrs-future-toronto-dont-think-hes-underappreciated-internally-think-wants-stay-think-want-stay/

JvR thoughts up there.

Unless they get him on a steal of a deal I think it would be a mistake to lock JVR up long term for 6 million +. He is not getting younger and is such a one dimensional player that he could pretty quickly be a huge liability if the offence dries up even a bit.

Ok so we don't resign him and the likely hood of him being traded is slim if the team is in the playoff hunt. Who in our system is going to replace him. And PLEASE don't say Leivo!!!
That's a good question. I think we still really don't know what we have in Leivo. Earlier in the season I was not impressed and would have been happy to see him let go for a pick. But in some of the recent games, I saw some things I liked. I think he deserves some time on a more offensive line, maybe with Matthews or Kadri for a bit. He certainly won't drive a line but he could be a very good complimentary piece (kind of like JVR).

Otherwise...if JVR goes you move Kapanen up (he should really be an everyday player at this point) and hopefully can replace Komarov with someone with more speed and offensive talent. Johnsson maybe? Leivo? So maybe his (JVR's) replacement would be sort of a committee approach where you upgrade a couple of positions from within - none of them being able to replace JVR's production by themselves, but maybe the team overall is stronger.

The other option is to find a free agent or someone who needs a change of scenery from another team.

One player I've lost some of my confidence in is Brown. He works had and is very opportunistic but he really doesn't create much on his own and I've seen him blow a lot of defensive assignments this year, often resulting in goals. I'd prefer him over Komarov on one of the top 3 lines but if you bring Kapanen up and everyone else is healthy...

IMO, I have not been impressed with Kapanen this year. Yes in the playoffs he was excellent. This years MEH!. I also don't see Leivo other then a 4th line in the NHL. It is probably the right thing to trade JVR unless they can sign him for a good price, but if we are in the hunt I don't see it happening.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Chris on December 22, 2017, 10:51:04 PM

IMO, I have not been impressed with Kapanen this year. Yes in the playoffs he was excellent. This years MEH!. I also don't see Leivo other then a 4th line in the NHL. It is probably the right thing to trade JVR unless they can sign him for a good price, but if we are in the hunt I don't see it happening.

We'll have to disagree on Kapanen. He looks more than ready to me and I think could easily step in for Komarov or even Brown. Whether he can sustain higher level play for longer periods is a concern but he's got the skill, the skating and plays a bit of a physical game.

Really, neither he nor Leivo are getting much of a chance to play regularly with offensive players. How much can either be expected to accomplish playing a game here and there with Moore and Martin?

As for the wisdom of trading JVR, I would think a lot would depend on the return. If teams are offering the moon, then I'd say go for it and bring Kapanen in as a regular. If the return is so-so, it might be better to just keep him especially if management feels the team is a legit contender this year (I don't think they are, especially if Matthews doesn't return to form).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 23, 2017, 11:54:18 AM
As for the wisdom of trading JVR, I would think a lot would depend on the return. If teams are offering the moon, then I'd say go for it and bring Kapanen in as a regular. If the return is so-so, it might be better to just keep him especially if management feels the team is a legit contender this year (I don't think they are, especially if Matthews doesn't return to form).

That's probably a fair position to take. A lot will also depend where the team is when the deadline rolls around. If they have a playoff spot clearly locked up, then I have to imagine they'll be inclined to hold on to JvR in the hopes of a deep playoff run. If they're a bubble team? Well, then, you have to think seriously about moving him. And, really, when they're rolling, the Leafs are deep enough that they can score a good rate without JvR. When they're not, he's not enough to push them over the top. He helps make it easier for the team to win, but he's not a good enough player that he leads the team to a lot of wins.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 23, 2017, 01:58:37 PM
As for the wisdom of trading JVR, I would think a lot would depend on the return. If teams are offering the moon, then I'd say go for it and bring Kapanen in as a regular. If the return is so-so, it might be better to just keep him especially if management feels the team is a legit contender this year (I don't think they are, especially if Matthews doesn't return to form).

That's probably a fair position to take. A lot will also depend where the team is when the deadline rolls around. If they have a playoff spot clearly locked up, then I have to imagine they'll be inclined to hold on to JvR in the hopes of a deep playoff run. If they're a bubble team? Well, then, you have to think seriously about moving him. And, really, when they're rolling, the Leafs are deep enough that they can score a good rate without JvR. When they're not, he's not enough to push them over the top. He helps make it easier for the team to win, but he's not a good enough player that he leads the team to a lot of wins.

I think what you said at the end is true, but if so it argues for trading him no matter what.  There is enough talent here that JVR is not the key to whether they go deep or not.  He helps them, yes, but not the difference maker.

For example, say they keep him for a big run but then Andersen gets hurt and can't go.  There goes your hope, JVR or not, and then he could walk for nothing.

I like van Riemsdyk, quite a lot actually, but given the make-up of the team and his UFA status I think they'd be wise to trade him for the best return they can muster, hopefully one that is D-heavy.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on December 23, 2017, 03:12:19 PM
I think what you said at the end is true, but if so it argues for trading him no matter what.  There is enough talent here that JVR is not the key to whether they go deep or not.  He helps them, yes, but not the difference maker.

Yeah, maybe. Where they are in terms of comfort in making the playoffs maybe just pushes the price up a little. He's not a difference maker if the Leafs are a bubble team but, if they are a legit contender, he might be enough to push them ahead of another contender in an individual series. He's not the difference between going deep in the playoffs or losing in the first round, but he might be the difference between winning the Cup or losing in the finals. That doesn't mean you absolutely eliminate the thought of moving him, but it does move the fenceposts, so to speak.

That being said, if Tampa stays healthy, I don't think the Leafs have strong odds of making it out of the 2nd round.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 24, 2017, 06:30:50 AM
More JvR thoughts, with some Bozak in the mix:
https://theathletic.com/191006/2017/12/21/dellow-same-but-different-pp1-provides-van-riemsdyk-with-argument-for-contract-extension/

The interesting note from Dellow here is how much the switch from Zaitsev to Rielly has changed PP1s focal points on their attack approach, particularly affecting Bozaks contributions. PP setups are so handedness-dependent.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 25, 2017, 06:34:45 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Babcock is pretty obvious about how he manages the media. The media is a very willing participant.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bender on December 26, 2017, 09:40:05 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Babcock is pretty obvious about how he manages the media. The media is a very willing participant.
I bought this from Craig this year for Christmas. Can't wait to read! Love his podcast.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 27, 2017, 03:33:58 PM
I bought this from Craig this year for Christmas. Can't wait to read! Love his podcast.

At least on the podcast, he certainly has a way of facilitating his subject's story without making it about himself.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on December 27, 2017, 03:37:31 PM
MLHS's Anthony Petrielli and TLN's Ian Tulloch teamed up for a pair of podcasts last week.

This one is with Off the Post and about the best lines in the NHL right now
https://soundcloud.com/off-the-post/cream-of-the-crop-which-lines-are-the-nhls-best-ep-70

This one is on Ian's Leafs Geeks Podcast and specifically about the Leafs' State of the System that we've been hashing out lately
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/12/26/anthony-petrielli-analyzes-toronto-maple-leafs-systems-leafs-geeks-podcast/
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on December 30, 2017, 02:02:31 PM
Here's a fun blast from the past :D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5jKAsnYYF8
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 31, 2017, 02:03:52 PM
The Leafs don't have a single back-to-back until January 24th/25th. But they have 10 games in 23 days in that time, including a stretch where they play 6 games in 11 days (that starts today against Vegas). Lots of home games though (6 in a row after Vegas). It'll be interesting to see how Babcock uses Pickard/McBackup prior to the next B2B. Or if he uses them at all.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 01, 2018, 01:49:27 PM
Zaitsev update:


That means likely a minimum of 5 more games without him.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 01, 2018, 05:25:43 PM

Thread: click through the tweet

Im looking forward to 2018. We arent playing at our peak yet and have had a nasty road heavy schedule for the first half and we are still sitting on a decent cushion of points (poorly earned or otherwise).

We will see the contrast between us, a good team, vs Tampa Bay, a great Cup contender, and it will still be stark difference at the moment. But the pieces for greatness are there and growing and cap room is coming (briefly). We dont have the injury luck of last season or the overachievement of so many players, but bounces will come.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 01, 2018, 06:59:32 PM

Thread: click through the tweet

Im looking forward to 2018. We arent playing at our peak yet and have had a nasty road heavy schedule for the first half and we are still sitting on a decent cushion of points (poorly earned or otherwise).

We will see the contrast between us, a good team, vs Tampa Bay, a great Cup contender, and it will still be stark difference at the moment. But the pieces for greatness are there and growing and cap room is coming (briefly). We dont have the injury luck of last season or the overachievement of so many players, but bounces will come.

I hate to break up this guy's lazy lede but there is no sky is falling panic in anything I've been reading.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 02, 2018, 10:09:24 AM
https://theathletic.com/199613/2018/01/02/qa-lou-lamoriello-on-upgrading-the-leafs-defence-auston-matthews-and-if-hell-remain-gm-next-season/

Jonas Siegel sat down to pick Lou's brain, and as usual, we got next to nothing out of a lot of words.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 02, 2018, 10:53:59 AM
ImHuge @ r/leafs (https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/7ni62y/i_added_away_games_to_the_6every5_segments_to/) has been tracking our 6pts in 5 games target Babcock set out last season.

Someone else (bravenewname) added formatting for away games, so if we're wondering why December's record was so dismal (on top of losing Matthews for a stretch and playing like garbage):
(https://i.redd.it/unei39q3aj701.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on January 02, 2018, 11:53:14 AM
Unless the Goat!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on January 02, 2018, 11:57:27 AM
Unless the Goat!
Here's to you Busta...LOL
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 02, 2018, 12:08:15 PM
https://theathletic.com/199613/2018/01/02/qa-lou-lamoriello-on-upgrading-the-leafs-defence-auston-matthews-and-if-hell-remain-gm-next-season/

Jonas Siegel sat down to pick Lou's brain, and as usual, we got next to nothing out of a lot of words.

Lou's skull is fashioned of tungsten and various rare-earth minerals.  Not possible to infiltrate.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on January 02, 2018, 12:52:26 PM

Thread: click through the tweet

Im looking forward to 2018. We arent playing at our peak yet and have had a nasty road heavy schedule for the first half and we are still sitting on a decent cushion of points (poorly earned or otherwise).

We will see the contrast between us, a good team, vs Tampa Bay, a great Cup contender, and it will still be stark difference at the moment. But the pieces for greatness are there and growing and cap room is coming (briefly). We dont have the injury luck of last season or the overachievement of so many players, but bounces will come.
x2
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: princedpw on January 02, 2018, 01:28:52 PM
ImHuge @ r/leafs (https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/7ni62y/i_added_away_games_to_the_6every5_segments_to/) has been tracking our 6pts in 5 games target Babcock set out last season.

Someone else (bravenewname) added formatting for away games, so if we're wondering why December's record was so dismal (on top of losing Matthews for a stretch and playing like garbage):
(https://i.redd.it/unei39q3aj701.png)

I believe I read that the Leafs had 18 back-to-backs this year.  I think they have complete 13 (70% of them) and have just 5 more to go.

All other things being equal, there is reason to believe the 2nd half will go a little better.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: LuncheonMeat on January 02, 2018, 05:12:01 PM
ImHuge @ r/leafs (https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/7ni62y/i_added_away_games_to_the_6every5_segments_to/) has been tracking our 6pts in 5 games target Babcock set out last season.

Someone else (bravenewname) added formatting for away games, so if we're wondering why December's record was so dismal (on top of losing Matthews for a stretch and playing like garbage):
(https://i.redd.it/unei39q3aj701.png)

I believe I read that the Leafs had 18 back-to-backs this year.  I think they have complete 13 (70% of them) and have just 5 more to go.

All other things being equal, there is reason to believe the 2nd half will go a little better.

Fourteen this season, but I'm not sure how many they've played so far.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on January 02, 2018, 05:47:32 PM
https://theathletic.com/199613/2018/01/02/qa-lou-lamoriello-on-upgrading-the-leafs-defence-auston-matthews-and-if-hell-remain-gm-next-season/

Jonas Siegel sat down to pick Lou's brain, and as usual, we got next to nothing out of a lot of words.

Lou's skull is fashioned of tungsten and various rare-earth minerals.  Not possible to infiltrate.

Uninfiltratium?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 04, 2018, 01:16:04 PM
A buddy of mine, not a Leafs fan, mentioned to me that the Leafs are 1-13 when Graham Skilliter is a ref.  Not believing him I googled it, and sure enough it's a thing. https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/disturbing-trend-emerges-between-the-maple-leafs-and-one-particular-nhl-referee

Coinkidink?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: louisstamos on January 04, 2018, 01:44:40 PM
A buddy of mine, not a Leafs fan, mentioned to me that the Leafs are 1-13 when Graham Skilliter is a ref.  Not believing him I googled it, and sure enough it's a thing. https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/disturbing-trend-emerges-between-the-maple-leafs-and-one-particular-nhl-referee

Coinkidink?

Probably - the Leafs were very bad 2 years ago, and just barely made the playoffs last year.  Still, that's pretty lobsided.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 04, 2018, 01:46:36 PM
A buddy of mine, not a Leafs fan, mentioned to me that the Leafs are 1-13 when Graham Skilliter is a ref.  Not believing him I googled it, and sure enough it's a thing. https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/disturbing-trend-emerges-between-the-maple-leafs-and-one-particular-nhl-referee

Coinkidink?

Probably - the Leafs were very bad 2 years ago, and just barely made the playoffs last year.  Still, that's pretty lobsided.

True enough, I'd throw out the 0-5 from 2 years ago since the Leafs were the worst team in the league, but the last 2 seasons combined they're still only 1-8 with him as ref and the Leafs have generally been pretty good over that span.

Since this has been made into a quasi-story, I'm interested to see how the next game goes with this guy as ref.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on January 04, 2018, 02:08:18 PM
True enough, I'd throw out the 0-5 from 2 years ago since the Leafs were the worst team in the league, but the last 2 seasons combined they're still only 1-8 with him as ref and the Leafs have generally been pretty good over that span.

The Leafs were not particularly good in 15/16 when they went 0-3 with him as a ref. :P They went 0-5 with him in 14/15 (also, not a good team that year).

In the span they've been a reasonably good team, they've gone 1-5 (assuming the other night against Tampa was the first time he's officiated one of their games this season). Still not great, but, not enough to draw much of a conclusion from without knowing when he was the official last season - as they were still a pretty middling team early in 16/17.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 04, 2018, 02:13:57 PM
True enough, I'd throw out the 0-5 from 2 years ago since the Leafs were the worst team in the league, but the last 2 seasons combined they're still only 1-8 with him as ref and the Leafs have generally been pretty good over that span.

The Leafs were not particularly good in 15/16 when they went 0-3 with him as a ref. :P They went 0-5 with him in 14/15 (also, not a good team that year).

In the span they've been a reasonably good team, they've gone 1-5 (assuming the other night against Tampa was the first time he's officiated one of their games this season). Still not great, but, not enough to draw much of a conclusion from without knowing when he was the official last season - as they were still a pretty middling team early in 16/17.

Oh I read it wrong, I saw 3 separate seasons and figured the 0-3 was from last year, but it's from 2 seasons ago since it's 15-16.  So yeah since last season's team + this season they're 1-5 with him.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 05, 2018, 11:47:23 AM

Time to put all our hopes and dreams on Dermott and widely overreact to his first NHL game good or bad!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 05, 2018, 11:51:01 AM
Dermott is coming off back-to-back 3 point games, has 8 points in his last 4 games, and 13 points in his last 10 games. He had just 4 points in 16 games prior to this offensive outburst.

And he was just named to the AHL All-Star game (along with Kapanen).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on January 05, 2018, 11:51:09 AM

Time to put all our hopes and dreams on Dermott and widely overreact to his first NHL game good or bad!

I'm grading him on the Matthews scale.  4 goal debut or he's a bust.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 05, 2018, 11:53:38 AM
Question is.  When does he get in, and when he does, is he playing the right side?  If he's playing the left, it means Borgman is coming out- which I wouldn't be terribly upset about as he hasn't played quite as well lately. 

Who knows though- maybe they will try Borgman on the right side? 

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 05, 2018, 11:57:51 AM
Question is.  When does he get in, and when he does, is he playing the right side?  If he's playing the left, it means Borgman is coming out- which I wouldn't be terribly upset about as he hasn't played quite as well lately. 

Who knows though- maybe they will try Borgman on the right side? 



Looking through some Marlies line-ups, Dermott's played the right side at times this season. Borgman played the right side in Sweden and during the pre-season. So they both have experience with it.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 05, 2018, 11:59:58 AM
Question is.  When does he get in, and when he does, is he playing the right side?  If he's playing the left, it means Borgman is coming out- which I wouldn't be terribly upset about as he hasn't played quite as well lately. 

Who knows though- maybe they will try Borgman on the right side? 



Looking through some Marlies line-ups, Dermott's played the right side at times this season. Borgman played the right side in Sweden and during the pre-season. So they both have experience with it.

Hmmm.  Makes me want to put them together and allow them to both try switching sides and see who manages it better.

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Carrick (probably gonna be Polak though)
Borgman - Dermott
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on January 05, 2018, 12:01:52 PM
Question is.  When does he get in, and when he does, is he playing the right side?  If he's playing the left, it means Borgman is coming out- which I wouldn't be terribly upset about as he hasn't played quite as well lately. 

Who knows though- maybe they will try Borgman on the right side? 



Looking through some Marlies line-ups, Dermott's played the right side at times this season. Borgman played the right side in Sweden and during the pre-season. So they both have experience with it.

Hmmm.  Makes me want to put them together and allow them to both try switching sides and see who manages it better.

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Carrick (definitely gonna be Polak though, it's Babcock)
Borgman - Dermott
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 05, 2018, 12:10:33 PM
Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Carrick (probably gonna be Polak though)
Borgman - Dermott

Yeah I mean it's definitely going to be Carrick who's coming out of the line-up, so I'll take whatever option doesn't result in Polak playing in the top-4.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 05, 2018, 12:12:31 PM
Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Carrick (probably gonna be Polak though)
Borgman - Dermott

Yeah I mean it's definitely going to be Carrick who's coming out of the line-up, so I'll take whatever option doesn't result in Polak playing in the top-4.

If that is what you're aiming for, gotta be this for me:

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Dermott
Borgman - Polak

I'd rather throw Dermott to the wolves of the other team than the one on our own team.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 05, 2018, 12:51:51 PM
Question is.  When does he get in, and when he does, is he playing the right side?  If he's playing the left, it means Borgman is coming out- which I wouldn't be terribly upset about as he hasn't played quite as well lately. 

Who knows though- maybe they will try Borgman on the right side?

I have to assume he's getting in, otherwise why bring up a young guy to sit as a 7th defenseman when he could be playing regular minutes on the Marlies?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on January 05, 2018, 01:04:59 PM
Maybe Polak did get injured last night?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on January 05, 2018, 01:22:13 PM
If that is what you're aiming for, gotta be this for me:

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Dermott
Borgman - Polak

I'd rather throw Dermott to the wolves of the other team than the one on our own team.

 :D
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 05, 2018, 02:48:02 PM
Maybe Polak did get injured last night?

I don't wish injury upon anyone, but...........I mean if it's not *super serious*....only keeps him out say 4-5 7-10 months?  I could be ok with that.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 05, 2018, 02:59:56 PM
Question is.  When does he get in, and when he does, is he playing the right side?  If he's playing the left, it means Borgman is coming out- which I wouldn't be terribly upset about as he hasn't played quite as well lately. 

Who knows though- maybe they will try Borgman on the right side?

I have to assume he's getting in, otherwise why bring up a young guy to sit as a 7th defenseman when he could be playing regular minutes on the Marlies?

A few things:

1.  Marlies play 3 games in 4 nights and Dermott just returned from injury.  I wonder if they feel that is too much for him so quickly. 
2.  Their PK has been terrible since Marincin was called up and Dermott was injured. 

What they could do is swap them for a day:

- Dermott gets his first practice with the Leafs today.
- Marincin plays for the Marlies tonight
- Swap them again tomorrow so Dermott has only played 2 of the 3 games in 4 nights.

Marlies are off until next weekend after their game tomorrow night.  So I'd expect them to have Dermott up with the Leafs practicing and potentially getting in a game next week.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: freer on January 05, 2018, 04:11:17 PM
Maybe Polak did get injured last night?

I don't wish injury upon anyone, but...........I mean if it's not *super serious*....only keeps him out say 4-5 7-10 months?  I could be ok with that.

I know that Polak is not liked on this team. But he is the only defense man who has stood up for Andersen when he is hit in the crease. If you don't have a defense men doing that Andersen will be injured for sure.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on January 05, 2018, 04:24:00 PM
Maybe Polak did get injured last night?

I don't wish injury upon anyone, but...........I mean if it's not *super serious*....only keeps him out say 4-5 7-10 months?  I could be ok with that.

Babcock would put Komarov on defence and play him 26 minutes per game.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on January 05, 2018, 04:26:51 PM

Time to put all our hopes and dreams on Dermott and widely overreact to his first NHL game good or bad!
Yes CTB lets make him the next coming of Ian Turnbull
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on January 05, 2018, 04:34:20 PM
Maybe Polak did get injured last night?

I don't wish injury upon anyone, but...........I mean if it's not *super serious*....only keeps him out say 4-5 7-10 months?  I could be ok with that.

I know that Polak is not liked on this team. But he is the only defense man who has stood up for Andersen when he is hit in the crease. If you don't have a defense men doing that Andersen will be injured for sure.

He stood up for him by chasing a guy up the ice to crosschecks him.   It was stupid and did nothing to prevent guys from doing it to Zanders em.  The simple fact that the act happened while Polak was on the ice proves that Polak doesnt act as a protective deterrent.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on January 05, 2018, 04:40:16 PM
Ian Turnbull would not of let it happen. I mean Dermott!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on January 07, 2018, 03:19:35 PM
Could some of the Leafs problems be that they are playing down to their competition?  They seemed to have two really good games against Tampa and San Jose, and then they looked slow again against Vancouver.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 08, 2018, 12:06:11 PM
If that is what you're aiming for, gotta be this for me:

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Dermott
Borgman - Polak

I'd rather throw Dermott to the wolves of the other team than the one on our own team.

 :D

It's happening!!! 

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on January 08, 2018, 09:18:27 PM
Its such a pleasure watching a TSN broadcast, from the play by play to the intermission crew. Sportsnet has had years to figure it out and cant seem to let the likes of Kypreos and Greg no doubt about it Millen go.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on January 09, 2018, 12:07:49 AM
The Maple Leafs have gone from being the worst (last season) to the best (this year so far) shootout team in the league.

How's zhat?  Easy.  The fact that Babcock chooses his shooters randomly (after Matthews of course ), plus Andersen who has been so much better in styming the opposition in shootout situations.

The Leafs all-time shootout leader is none than other Tyler Bozak, with Matthews closing in.


https://theathletic.com/205105/2018/01/07/why-the-leafs-are-suddenly-winning-shootouts/
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 09, 2018, 10:31:21 AM
Craig Custance chats with Justin Bourne about life as a Marlies video coach (some behind the scenes stories), and changing careers from playing hockey to writing about hockey.

https://soundcloud.com/user-38892502-274623174/the-full-60-episode-14-justin-bourne
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 09, 2018, 12:43:34 PM

Haha
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 09, 2018, 12:50:59 PM

Haha

Looks like there is a rotation of Dermott-Borgman-Carrick going on.

Polak isn't coming out unless one of them prove to be useful on the PK.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on January 09, 2018, 12:59:57 PM
Polak has taken more minor penalty minutes than he has games played this year.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 09, 2018, 01:09:24 PM
Polak isn't coming out unless one of them prove to be useful on the PK.

Which will never happen because Babcock won't ever play them on the PK. It's the perfect plan!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 09, 2018, 01:12:13 PM
Polak isn't coming out unless one of them prove to be useful on the PK.

Which will never happen because Babcock won't ever play them on the PK. It's the perfect plan!

And the guy who is there specifically as the big PK body is this one:
Polak has taken more minor penalty minutes than he has games played this year.

At least with Dermott, he has actually logged PK minutes with the Marlies, and they play the same system as the Leafs (for seamless call ups).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 09, 2018, 01:42:38 PM
I think Dermott might be sticking around

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on January 09, 2018, 01:45:22 PM
There seems to be literally nothing Polak can do to play himself out of the line-up, which is a sad testament to Babcock's irrational favouratism.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on January 09, 2018, 01:49:11 PM
There seems to be literally nothing Polak can do to play himself out of the line-up, which is a sad testament to Babcock's irrational favouritism.

It's also an indictment of Lou, I'm really ready for Dubas to tighten the reigns next year when it comes to which toys Mike gets to play with.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on January 09, 2018, 01:55:26 PM
Polak has taken more minor penalty minutes than he has games played this year.

He's also the only defenceman on the team who has played at least 5 games who has a negative 5-on-5 goal differential.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on January 09, 2018, 06:33:08 PM
What's also encouraging with Dermott is he's the first fruits of hopefully a steady stream of draft picks on defense that will slowly get NHL-ready in the minors and then make the big club. He was 34th overall in 2016 I believe. Without a top pick on a stud defenseman they'll build a good corps that way. Reilly was 5th overall six years ago I think. Next up is Ljillegren I'd imagine. It'll take some time, but they should be able to eventually assemble a solid top six.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 09, 2018, 07:19:25 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on January 10, 2018, 08:55:50 AM
I tried to find it and failed, albeit have no idea where to look anymore with so many of the advanced stats sites being signed to NHL clubs.

Do we have numbers on PK% with/without Polak?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 10, 2018, 08:59:30 AM
I tried to find it and failed, albeit have no idea where to look anymore with so many of the advanced stats sites being signed to NHL clubs.

Do we have numbers on PK% with/without Polak?

Someone actually looked into this in detail yesterday:

Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 10, 2018, 09:21:30 AM
Someone actually looked into this in detail yesterday: --snip--

PK% is just like +/-, in that the events are so rare it's hard to get a stable reading for anything predictive. Even shot shares are spiky and highly dependent on deployment.

A deeper cut would probably have to look at PK xG data and some heat maps.

Hockeyviz:
The team's PK shots against rates this season, relative to league average, for a baseline
(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocDefPK/1718/TOR)

PK Shots Against with Polak / Without Polak
(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPK/1718/TOR/polakro86)(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPK/1718/TOR/polakro86)

PK Shots Against with Zaitsev / without Zaitsev
(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPK/1718/TOR/zaitsni91)(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPK/1718/TOR/zaitsni91)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on January 10, 2018, 09:32:34 AM
Someone actually looked into this in detail yesterday: --snip--

PK% is just like +/-, in that the events are so rare it's hard to get a stable reading for anything predictive. Even shot shares are spiky and highly dependent on deployment.

A deeper cut would probably have to look at PK xG data and some heat maps.

Hockeyviz:
The team's PK shots against rates this season, relative to league average, for a baseline
(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocDefPK/1718/TOR)

PK Shots Against with Polak / Without Polak
(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPK/1718/TOR/polakro86)(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPK/1718/TOR/polakro86)

PK Shots Against with Zaitsev / without Zaitsev
(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPK/1718/TOR/zaitsni91)(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPK/1718/TOR/zaitsni91)

My god.  The hippocampus is lit up like a Christmas tree.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 10, 2018, 09:41:31 AM
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ8WIj-AjBby1vV0tyZJqq-cO2u7mqfPw6nwSOkPIW67r6d5hy0UA)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Crake on January 10, 2018, 09:54:33 AM


Someone actually looked into this in detail yesterday: --snip--

PK% is just like +/-, in that the events are so rare it's hard to get a stable reading for anything predictive. Even shot shares are spiky and highly dependent on deployment.

A deeper cut would probably have to look at PK xG data and some heat maps.
 
... snip...


I'm not entirely sure how to read these, but dark green is good, right? If Polak is playing the right d position then these are saying he actually is good at suppressing shots in his area of coverage on the pk, don't they?

Of course there is more involved then just this to say whether he is actually good on the pk or not (shot clearings, time spent in the d zone etc) but I'd rather not see any info that might lead to somebody defending Polak's usage :(
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 10, 2018, 10:04:05 AM
I'm not entirely sure how to read these, but dark green is good, right? If Polak is playing the right d position then these are saying he actually is good at suppressing shots in his area of coverage on the pk, don't they?

Of course there is more involved then just this to say whether he is actually good on the pk or not (shot clearings, time spent in the d zone etc) but I'd rather not see any info that might lead to somebody defending Polak's usage :(

Green = fewer shots/60 than average from that area
Purple = more shots/60 than average from that area

Polak is okay in his limited time. I don't think anyone is saying he's not good on the PK; what we're mostly saying is that he's in the box more often than he is in the 4-man box forcing shots outside.

It also doesn't make much sense to not want to see data because it casts a player we don't like in a positive light; we should be telling everyone (we know associated with another hockey organization/GM) how wonderful Polak is as a player and person and how he'd be perfect for a deep playoff drive, just like how he helped the Sharks get to the finals and then us (a 30th place team the year before) reach the playoffs. We totally lost after he went down to injury. But now he's back, and for the paltry price of a 1st and a 3rd, he can be the backbone of your team's playoff success. If you call now, we'll throw in Kerby Rychel for 2nd rder.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 10, 2018, 11:19:32 AM
Hot take: killing a penalty really isn't that hard for NHL players.

By that I mean coaching and goaltending are much more important aspects of a successful penalty kill than personnel is. Any good NHLer should be successful on the PK as long as those two things are in place. I'd argue a PK on this team consisting of Matthews/Kadri-Marner/Marleau-Gardiner-Dermott would be just as successful if not more successful than Komarov-Hyman-Hainsey-Polak. We'll just never know because 99% of coaches are incredibly stubborn.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 10, 2018, 11:45:18 AM
Hot take: killing a penalty really isn't that hard for NHL players.

My take is lukewarm at best. Good NHL players at 5v5 can and usually are good PKers.

I semi-agree with Babcock in shelving your poorest shooters in the PK where goals are not expected and conserving TOI/energy to 5v5/4 situations. PK is also where shot blocking happens a ton (even though I think it is pretty detrimental to the goalie trying to make the save). Poorest shooters is a relative term though, and it definitely doesn't mean you should go out and deliberately buy a player that can't score except for accidentally, can't handle the puck except to dump it, and can't move without taking a penalty.

So imagine a lineup where the bottom of the barrel is replaced by the likes of Kapanen, Johnsson, Marincin, Carrick, Dermott, so your PK group is, even under archaic coaching philosophies, going to be a more mobile, puck-savvy squad. Rising tide and all that.

Some teams are mixing in the likes of Tavares and Bergeron and Marchand, actual skilled players, and it really knocks PPs for a loop because they're now up against someone who can a) think the game just as fast if not faster, b) take the puck away, c) outskate them, d) have the hands to pot a goal in transition. We have the horses to do this, but not the wherewithal to not stuff our lineup with 'easy' options.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 10, 2018, 11:46:56 AM

Yaaaassssss (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBOvfN2Y4oo).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 10, 2018, 12:07:40 PM
I tried to find it and failed, albeit have no idea where to look anymore with so many of the advanced stats sites being signed to NHL clubs.

Do we have numbers on PK% with/without Polak?

Someone actually looked into this in detail yesterday:

Invalid Tweet ID

Those number are a garbage way to make a point.  So Polak plays the first 1:20 of the PK, doesn't get scored on, Rielly comes on the ice in his place and promptly gives one up on the PK and guess what... the PK percentage with Polak in the lineup takes a hit.

This is what you should be looking at:

GA/60 for 4v5 mins (in order of mins):
Hainsey 4.8
Zaitsev 5.2
Rielly 8.13
Polak 4.43
Gardiner 2.62 (only 22 mins)
Borgman 12.94 (only 9 mins)

Polak also has the best CA/60, FA/60 and SA/60 among the top 5 in that list, if you're looking for underlying numbers presenting expected results moving forward.

*BTW, I don't want him in the lineup and don't think the good he does ON the PK outweighs his poor performance 5v5 or his penchant to take penalties.  Just pointing out those are bad stats to present that Polak doesn't impact the PK positively.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on January 10, 2018, 02:37:45 PM
I tried to find it and failed, albeit have no idea where to look anymore with so many of the advanced stats sites being signed to NHL clubs.

Do we have numbers on PK% with/without Polak?

Someone actually looked into this in detail yesterday:

Invalid Tweet ID

Those number are a garbage way to make a point.  So Polak plays the first 1:20 of the PK, doesn't get scored on, Rielly comes on the ice in his place and promptly gives one up on the PK and guess what... the PK percentage with Polak in the lineup takes a hit.

This is what you should be looking at:

GA/60 for 4v5 mins (in order of mins):
Hainsey 4.8
Zaitsev 5.2
Rielly 8.13
Polak 4.43
Gardiner 2.62 (only 22 mins)
Borgman 12.94 (only 9 mins)

Polak also has the best CA/60, FA/60 and SA/60 among the top 5 in that list, if you're looking for underlying numbers presenting expected results moving forward.

*BTW, I don't want him in the lineup and don't think the good he does ON the PK outweighs his poor performance 5v5 or his penchant to take penalties.  Just pointing out those are bad stats to present that Polak doesn't impact the PK positively.

That can happen when people try to shoehorn stats to support a narrative.

Thanks for the counterpoint.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 10, 2018, 03:03:55 PM
Those number are a garbage way to make a point.  So Polak plays the first 1:20 of the PK, doesn't get scored on, Rielly comes on the ice in his place and promptly gives one up on the PK and guess what... the PK percentage with Polak in the lineup takes a hit.

I'm not really sure what all that has to do with that tweet. The argument for keeping Polak in the line-up is that without his role on the PK our penalty kill will suffer. But so far they've played 19 games without him in the line-up and our PK% is 83.8, which is identical to our PK% with him in the line-up. If he was essential to the success of our PK wouldn't our success rate have been even a little bit worse without him in the line-up?

I don't think those stats are there to attack Polak or to suggest that he's garbage. It just says that our PK wouldn't be any better or worse if he wasn't play. He's replaceable, which like I said earlier is something that you could probably say about a lot of penalty killers around the league.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 10, 2018, 03:12:39 PM
Those number are a garbage way to make a point.  So Polak plays the first 1:20 of the PK, doesn't get scored on, Rielly comes on the ice in his place and promptly gives one up on the PK and guess what... the PK percentage with Polak in the lineup takes a hit.

I'm not really sure what all that has to do with that tweet. The argument for keeping Polak in the line-up is that without his role on the PK our penalty kill will suffer. But so far they've played 19 games without him in the line-up and our PK% is 83.8, which is identical to our PK% with him in the line-up. If he was essential to the success of our PK wouldn't our success rate have been even a little bit worse without him in the line-up?


The problem with both Jeffler's tweet and your analysis of it is Zaitsev was integral to the PK "success" without Polak in the lineup.  With Zaitsev out of the lineup, you'd be playing Rielly more on the PK and his results have not been good.  Gardiner and Borgman have too small of sample sizes to glean much from the data I posted.  Furthermore, Polak has the best underlying numbers on the PK (CA/60, FA/60, SA/60) for anyone who's played more than 10 mins of PK time this year.

When Zaitsev returns, Polak's usefulness on the PK isn't as important and I sure hope he's not in the lineup anymore.  Until that happens, Babcock is playing the known commodity (Polak) despite his flaws because Rielly isn't getting it done and he doesn't have confidence that his other D-men can do it either.  We can argue all we want online that some other guys should get a shot (especially Dermott, who's been great on the PK with the Marlies by all accounts), but Babcock is reticent to go that route.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 10, 2018, 04:09:55 PM
When Zaitsev returns, Polak's usefulness on the PK isn't as important and I sure hope he's not in the lineup anymore.

What makes you think Polak will be out of the line-up when Zaitsev returns? His injury opened up a spot for Carrick, not Polak. Polak played in 10 straight games with Carrick in the press box prior to that injury. Yes, Polak's role on the PK increased quite a bit with Zaitsev's injury but his spot in the line-up was basically cemented before that even happened.

Furthermore, Polak has the best underlying numbers on the PK (CA/60, FA/60, SA/60) for anyone who's played more than 10 mins of PK time this year.

It doesn't really make any sense to use those specific stats when dealing with speciality teams though. There's no real-world basis to them. What it does matter how many shots against per 60 minutes are allowed? Do you even know how many PK shifts a defenceman takes in a span of 60 minutes? It's somewhat needlessly blowing up the numbers. We use per 60 at 5-on-5 because a NHL game is 60 minutes. Why not use per 2 when dealing with speciality teams because penalties are 2 minutes? Here's what our defencemen's CA/2 would look like:

Hainsey 3.3
Zaitsev 3.7
Rielly 2.9
Polak 2.8
Gardiner 3.1

So that essentially says for every 2 minute penalty our defencemen each all about 3 shot attempts against. They're all basically even, with Zaitsev being a tad hit ahead. But doesn't looking at it like that make more sense from a practical standpoint? Does it make a significant difference in a game if Gardiner allows 0.3 more shot attempts on every kill? Yes that number adds up over time but that doesn't really make a difference on a 2 minute penalty.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on January 10, 2018, 10:54:47 PM
New conspiracy theory: Babcock will do anything to prevent Lou and shanahan from fast tracking... He's showing them the crap on the team by playing them heavily.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: freer on January 10, 2018, 10:57:11 PM
New conspiracy theory: Babcock will do anything to prevent Lou and shanahan from fast tracking... He's showing them the crap on the team by playing them heavily.

LOL humour that is great, and I love it!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on January 10, 2018, 11:00:11 PM
There is no longer any doubt that Babcocks decision-making (both in game and roster) is hurting the team. Hes playing the wrong line up, the wrong lines, and the wrong system for the make up of this team, and he refuses to make adjustments.

Just for example, why is the team still chipping the puck out of their own zone and dumping it in rather than rushing with it? They have elite speed and yet barely ever draw penalties because they almost never have the puck in the neutral zone.

The sad part is that nothing in his post game comments suggests that hell be making changes following the bye week.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: freer on January 10, 2018, 11:04:37 PM
There is no longer any doubt that Babcocks decision-making (both in game and roster) is hurting the team. Hes playing the wrong line up, the wrong lines, and the wrong system for the make up of this team, and he refuses to make adjustments.

Just for example, why is the team still chipping the puck out of their own zone and dumping it in rather than rushing with it? They have elite speed and yet barely ever draw penalties because they almost never have the puck in the neutral zone.

The sad part is that nothing in his post game comments suggests that hell be making changes following the bye week.

We have elite speed, yes but we also have players who can't score anymore Kadri, or won't shot the damn Puck Marner because he is selfish and is trying to be pretty. Something has to change quickly or we will not make the playoffs
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on January 11, 2018, 03:43:52 AM
There is no longer any doubt that Babcocks decision-making (both in game and roster) is hurting the team. Hes playing the wrong line up, the wrong lines, and the wrong system for the make up of this team, and he refuses to make adjustments.

Just for example, why is the team still chipping the puck out of their own zone and dumping it in rather than rushing with it? They have elite speed and yet barely ever draw penalties because they almost never have the puck in the neutral zone.

The sad part is that nothing in his post game comments suggests that hell be making changes following the bye week.

We have elite speed, yes but we also have players who can't score anymore Kadri, or won't shot the damn Puck Marner because he is selfish and is trying to be pretty. Something has to change quickly or we will not make the playoffs


I wouldn't make too harsh a judgement on the statements.  Kadri is obviously not in sync and Marner, well, yes, he likes to get fancy when he has an opportunity to just shoot.  Marner also has a love of skating and it shows.  Selfish?  No.   A little bit more awareness perhaps, but he'll eventually get the hang of what needs to be done better.  I have faith in #16.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 11, 2018, 10:04:34 AM

Not a surprising development with the Leafs on their bye-week. The question is: do they come back up when it's over?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bender on January 11, 2018, 10:06:41 AM
Dermott has looked remarkably steady IMO. Should come back, slot in easily over Roman Penalty. I mean Polak.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 11, 2018, 11:34:42 AM
Dermott, yes.  Gauthier hasn't been any better than Moore.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 11, 2018, 11:55:03 AM
Dermott, yes.  Gauthier hasn't been any better than Moore.

Yeah, after a few games I really don't quite get the Gauthier call-up. Babcock is barely playing him too: he's only averaging 6:31 minutes a game at 5-on-5. Moore averaged 8:45 per game at 5-on-5 all season, and was actually at 8:53 in his last 10 games (so it's not like his ice-time was trending down or anything).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Frank E on January 11, 2018, 12:17:08 PM
Dermott, yes.  Gauthier hasn't been any better than Moore.

Yeah, after a few games I really don't quite get the Gauthier call-up. Babcock is barely playing him too: he's only averaging 6:31 minutes a game at 5-on-5. Moore averaged 8:45 per game at 5-on-5 all season, and was actually at 8:53 in his last 10 games (so it's not like his ice-time was trending down or anything).

I think that's probably due to Gauthier not being as good as Moore, yet.

I don't know if he'll be better, and honestly it's a nice story and all with him coming back from a bad injury, but he doesn't look like he'll bring anything more than what you can sign off the scrap heap UFA market every August.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 11, 2018, 12:34:48 PM
Dermott, yes.  Gauthier hasn't been any better than Moore.

Yeah, after a few games I really don't quite get the Gauthier call-up. Babcock is barely playing him too: he's only averaging 6:31 minutes a game at 5-on-5. Moore averaged 8:45 per game at 5-on-5 all season, and was actually at 8:53 in his last 10 games (so it's not like his ice-time was trending down or anything).

I think that's probably due to Gauthier not being as good as Moore, yet.

I don't know if he'll be better, and honestly it's a nice story and all with him coming back from a bad injury, but he doesn't look like he'll bring anything more than what you can sign off the scrap heap UFA market every August.

Not trying to pile on to Gauthier -- as you say, he's a good news story -- but Barb Underhill notwithstanding he's just not fast enough to play in the uptempo league the NHL has become.  In any case, does anyone see an upside higher than 4C center?  I don't.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on January 11, 2018, 01:13:11 PM
Dermott, yes.  Gauthier hasn't been any better than Moore.

Yeah, after a few games I really don't quite get the Gauthier call-up. Babcock is barely playing him too: he's only averaging 6:31 minutes a game at 5-on-5. Moore averaged 8:45 per game at 5-on-5 all season, and was actually at 8:53 in his last 10 games (so it's not like his ice-time was trending down or anything).

I think that's probably due to Gauthier not being as good as Moore, yet.

I don't know if he'll be better, and honestly it's a nice story and all with him coming back from a bad injury, but he doesn't look like he'll bring anything more than what you can sign off the scrap heap UFA market every August.

Honestly, probably not.  He's cap is likely as a decent 4th liner.  It was a bad pick at the time, it continues to be a bad pick.  He's big and slow.  Barb can make him big and modestly less slow but he's never going to be fast and he lacks offensive instincts to become more like a Brian Boyle guy who pots 10 goals a year on the 4th line.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on January 11, 2018, 01:16:46 PM
Not trying to pile on to Gauthier -- as you say, he's a good news story -- but Barb Underhill notwithstanding he's just not fast enough to play in the uptempo league the NHL has become.  In any case, does anyone see an upside higher than 4C center?  I don't.

I don't think his speed is an issue for a 4C. He's not a great skater, but he doesn't look slow, either. I'd agree his footspeed does limit his upside to a 4C.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on January 11, 2018, 01:21:59 PM
I think it's pretty unfair to judge The Goat right now, one he was playing with Martin and two he's had almost no time to show his skill and get up to speed.

I've watched a lot of him with the Marlies since he was drafted, the progression he has made is nothing short of remarkable. I would have him locked in as the fourth line center going forward.

He has shown an ability to absolutely dominate in the AHL at times, perhaps not on the scoreboard always, but he can take over a game and push play the right way if he's given guys with wheels who can get open for him.

His reach and smarts make him a good PK'er too.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 11, 2018, 01:30:57 PM
I think it's pretty unfair to judge The Goat right now, one he was playing with Martin and two he's had almost no time to show his skill and get up to speed.

I've watched a lot of him with the Marlies since he was drafted, the progression he has made is nothing short of remarkable. I would have him locked in as the fourth line center going forward.

He has shown an ability to absolutely dominate in the AHL at times, perhaps not on the scoreboard always, but he can take over a game and push play the right way if he's given guys with wheels who can get open for him.

His reach and smarts make him a good PK'er too.

Thanks for this.  You know more than I do since you've watched him a lot.  Maybe he is faster than he's looked to me in the couple of games I've seen him this year.  But if it turns out he isn't, in principle I'd like a faster guy in that (or any) roster spot.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 11, 2018, 01:43:35 PM
I think it's pretty unfair to judge The Goat right now, one he was playing with Martin and two he's had almost no time to show his skill and get up to speed.

I appreciate your other comments but this isn't really an excuse we can give to a player. Martin's here for 2 more seasons after this one. At least. We're going to have to find a 4C who can fit with him.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on January 11, 2018, 02:02:43 PM
I think it's pretty unfair to judge The Goat right now, one he was playing with Martin and two he's had almost no time to show his skill and get up to speed.

I appreciate your other comments but this isn't really an excuse we can give to a player. Martin's here for 2 more seasons after this one. At least. We're going to have to find a 4C who can fit with him.

Of course, he is averaging six minutes a night at 5v5 with him, expecting him to generate anything that really makes you have a positive impression of him, is going to be difficult especially in this small a sample.

I like that he uses his stick well and finishes his checks in the offensive zone when given a chance and I think he's looked good on the PK for the most part, again in a limited sample.

I've seen a lot of Moore and even more of Martin and I have zero doubt that at this point Freddy is better than both and has significantly more upside on his best days.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 11, 2018, 02:42:07 PM
https://www.tsn.ca/radio/audio/mclennan-leafs-usage-of-matthews-is-part-of-larger-plan-1.965194

TSN with some actual analysis and a reasonable take. I really like Noodles.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on January 11, 2018, 03:32:32 PM
https://www.tsn.ca/radio/audio/mclennan-leafs-usage-of-matthews-is-part-of-larger-plan-1.965194

TSN with some actual analysis and a reasonable take. I really like Noodles.

Agreed. Check out Renaud Lavoie on Sportnet today as well.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on January 11, 2018, 04:33:41 PM
I dont' think there are a lot of people who are going to argue against a 4th line of Kapanen-Gauthier-Soshnikov but we just arent' going to see that with Babcock as coach.  We have some unnecessary need to keep ready players in the minors to justify the existence of crappy 4th liners.

I'm all for promoting competition between lines but that argument flew out the window for me when Babcock consistently violates it with his veteran knuckle draggers.

Even the press does it.  Go back and look at the articles from November when Martin was a healthy scratch.  Woe is me articles about gud pro Matt Martin.   Dermott gets scratched for playing well because Babcock is obsessed with playing Polak and most of the talk is on Dermott holding his head up and waiting for his opportunity.  Bull shit.  Babcock has been throwing that "wait for your opportunity" line at Josh Leivo for two years.  He's thrown it at Kapanen, Soshnikov, etc. and they continue to sit because Babcock wants to run his traditional lineup.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Rob on January 11, 2018, 05:06:32 PM
I just hope Dubas becomes GM soon and takes away all of Babcock's crappy toys. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on January 11, 2018, 08:07:10 PM
The team has been speeding up in the last few games, however my belief is that when Zaitsev and Dermott are back next week, then things are going to change on the back end fairly dramatically.  I hope Polak and Carrick are out and that the Borgman stays but this may not be the case for obvious waiver reasons. Borg would not be hurt by lots of playing time with the Marlies, he is part of our future I do believe.
With Zaitsev and Dermott we become faster more agile and skilled on the back end. It will take pressure off Rielly and Gardiner and some more relief for Hainsey who will have reduced minutes. With the forwards the Leafs have, with the Goaltending that Anderson has served up this season, if the D can step up to be even 25% better then we are going to be in the mix in a  very big way.  Just saying ;)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on January 12, 2018, 03:23:46 AM
See everyone in five days. I'm going to Barbados in my mind.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on January 13, 2018, 02:14:42 PM
I did the Leafs' usual lineup with functional/affectionate nicks cuz I'm bored. Usually the first syllable of the last/first name avec y/s/er.

Hymie/Matty/Willy
Patty/Nazzy/Uncle Leo
Reemer/Bozie/Mitchy
Marty/Goat/Brownie

Momo/Boss
Gards/Zaity
Borgs/Poly
CeeCee

Freddie
Mac
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 13, 2018, 03:00:12 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Lol.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: LuncheonMeat on January 14, 2018, 12:03:47 AM
Invalid Tweet ID
Lol.

This makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 14, 2018, 01:10:33 PM
This makes me laugh even more.

Invalid Tweet IDfrom: https://theathletic.com/210336/2018/01/14/from-cold-chambers-to-deep-sleeps-how-the-leafs-survive-the-seasons-physical-grind/
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 14, 2018, 01:54:22 PM
Even Steve Simmons is off the Polak-train:

Quote
So whats more annoying, Babcocks unwillingness to put Auston Matthews on the Leafs first power play wouldnt you like to see Mitch Marner and Matthews together with the man advantage? or his stubborn belief that Roman Polak can help his hockey team.

http://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/simmons-says-of-crosby-mcdavid-donaldson-signing-and-team-canada
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 15, 2018, 09:03:22 AM
https://theleafsnation.com/2018/01/13/leafs-geeks-podcast-tactical-analysis-with-justin-bourne/

From Ian and Justin's conversation comes this nugget: (paraphrased)
Quote
Justin: from my conversations with people in the Leafs organization,
 they believe Gudbranson is worse than Polak.

Ian: That is a huge relief.

Justin: I didn't talk to Lou though.

Also a lot of other good tactical stuff, e.g. why does Babcock love Hyman and Brown? Is Rielly stupid (nope)?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 15, 2018, 10:37:09 AM
https://theleafsnation.com/2018/01/13/leafs-geeks-podcast-tactical-analysis-with-justin-bourne/

From Ian and Justin's conversation comes this nugget: (paraphrased)
Quote
Justin: from my conversations with people in the Leafs organization,
 they believe Gudbranson is worse than Polak.

Ian: That is a huge relief.

Justin: I didn't talk to Lou though.

The sad thing is, I'm not super convinced that's true. I'd probably take Gudbranson over Polak. The first issue would be cost: I obviously wouldn't give up much of anything to acquire him. The second issue would be if they wanted to re-sign Gudbranson. He's probably more likely to get a long-term extension because of his age than Polak is.

But if A) Babcock is insistent on having a big stay-at-home defenceman in the 3RD spot, B) the cost to acquire Gudbranson was cheap (I saw someone throw Andrew Nielsen's name around, I could stomach that), and C) the team would let him walk at the end of the season, I'd take Gudbranson over Polak.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 15, 2018, 11:34:44 AM

I missed this tweet from last week. So we're looking at late-January now for a potential return date.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 15, 2018, 12:40:44 PM
The sad thing is, I'm not super convinced that's true. I'd probably take Gudbranson over Polak. The first issue would be cost: I obviously wouldn't give up much of anything to acquire him. The second issue would be if they wanted to re-sign Gudbranson. He's probably more likely to get a long-term extension because of his age than Polak is.

But if A) Babcock is insistent on having a big stay-at-home defenceman in the 3RD spot, B) the cost to acquire Gudbranson was cheap (I saw someone throw Andrew Nielsen's name around, I could stomach that), and C) the team would let him walk at the end of the season, I'd take Gudbranson over Polak.

This new comparison viz suggests you might be right (in fairly small recent samples).

For the most part, the data I've seen suggests they're both poop emojis at hockey. It's a bit like Vegemite vs Marmite.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 15, 2018, 01:22:03 PM
The sad thing is, I'm not super convinced that's true. I'd probably take Gudbranson over Polak. The first issue would be cost: I obviously wouldn't give up much of anything to acquire him. The second issue would be if they wanted to re-sign Gudbranson. He's probably more likely to get a long-term extension because of his age than Polak is.

But if A) Babcock is insistent on having a big stay-at-home defenceman in the 3RD spot, B) the cost to acquire Gudbranson was cheap (I saw someone throw Andrew Nielsen's name around, I could stomach that), and C) the team would let him walk at the end of the season, I'd take Gudbranson over Polak.

This new comparison viz suggests you might be right (in fairly small recent samples).

For the most part, the data I've seen suggests they're both poop emojis at hockey. It's a bit like Vegemite vs Marmite.

Yes, neither please.  Interesting to see that Carrick isn't much better than Polak until you see the Zone-Entries against data.  Seriously, Carrick is almost as bad as him at moving the puck according to that data.  Not sure how Carrick manages to control his own blue line quite well yet still allows goals against at the same rates as Polak. 

Took a look at the forwards and have the following comments:

Nylander, Matthews, Marner, and Kadri are fantastic. 
JvR and Bozak don't look good- Marner really carries that line. 
Marleau and Komarov also don't look good- Kadri carries that line.

For all the talk about having so much winger depth, only Marner and Nylander (no data for Hyman) look good.  Marleau and JvR get lots of shots but do very little getting the puck out of our zone and into the other zones.  I do wonder if the system they are playing is really hurting the winger stats.  Ain't getting any zone exits if you are already out of the zone waiting for the long bomb play.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 15, 2018, 01:28:34 PM
This by weeks sucks.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: disco on January 15, 2018, 01:46:44 PM

I missed this tweet from last week. So we're looking at late-January now for a potential return date.

Cool, we're at one/two weeks now. Poor Zaity, that's a full six weeks total.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 15, 2018, 02:45:13 PM
Interesting to see that Carrick isn't much better than Polak until you see the Zone-Entries against data.  Seriously, Carrick is almost as bad as him at moving the puck according to that data.  Not sure how Carrick manages to control his own blue line quite well yet still allows goals against at the same rates as Polak. 

I think Carrick overthinks on defense a bit (makes him slower than actual), and then underthinks when he gets emotional about something (lots of penalties taken). He's having a very down year when the spot was wide open for the taking and Babcock's brought it up several times this year and last that some players have played like they've sewn up a roster spot when it's a try out every day. I don't believe him because Polak and Martin, but he still has a point about Carrick's play.


Took a look at the forwards and have the following comments:

Nylander, Matthews, Marner, and Kadri are fantastic. 
JvR and Bozak don't look good- Marner really carries that line. 
Marleau and Komarov also don't look good- Kadri carries that line.

For all the talk about having so much winger depth, only Marner and Nylander (no data for Hyman) look good.  Marleau and JvR get lots of shots but do very little getting the puck out of our zone and into the other zones.  I do wonder if the system they are playing is really hurting the winger stats.  Ain't getting any zone exits if you are already out of the zone waiting for the long bomb play.

Our wingers are largely complementary (other than Nylander, Marner, who are both underperforming at the moment). In and of itself, that is fine. I agree with you that our system/structure skews the passing stats for a lot of our forwards, as only one line tries to take multiple touches in the OZ and even then its with 2 players (Matthews-Nylander). The other ones are shovel-it-to-the-middle and crash-the-net lines when they even have enough possession time to make a go of it, and even then a lot of the shoveling is initiated from the points, as only Marner has the capability to reliably hold the puck for more than two plays against out of our middle 6 forwards.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 15, 2018, 03:54:24 PM

YAAASSSS. Making it a bit harder to see who it is now with his new number, but at least he is a different handed shot than Brown, Nylander, Zaitsev.

He wore 44 with the Otters, and 8 when he was a full time Marlie. 8 is 4+4, so duh, but both those numbers are off the table with the Leafs. Not sure if 3 was picked or assigned but 3 is half of 8 visually. 23, or 2^3, is 8, so this sounds more like his choice than the 3 was and it's the kind of numerological overthinking that I'm into.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 15, 2018, 04:01:47 PM

YAAASSSS. Making it a bit harder to see who it is now with his new number, but at least he is a different handed shot than Brown, Nylander, Zaitsev.

He wore 44 with the Otters, and 8 when he was a full time Marlie. 8 is 4+4, so duh, but both those numbers are off the table with the Leafs. Not sure if 3 was picked or assigned but 3 is half of 8 visually. 23, or 2^3, is 8, so this sounds more like his choice than the 3 was and it's the kind of numerological overthinking that I'm into.

THIS POST IS INTENTIONALLY BLANK
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 15, 2018, 04:04:10 PM
Dermott and Gauthier recalls now official.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on January 15, 2018, 07:06:23 PM
Now put Dermott in the ****in lineup and leave him there.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 15, 2018, 08:47:06 PM
!!!

So, what other players in the league wear #3?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on January 15, 2018, 09:17:30 PM
!!!

So, what other players in the league wear #3?

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/numbers.cgi?number=3&year=2018

Guys that are either unavailable or not interesting (or that carry an unmanageable cap hit).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on January 16, 2018, 02:13:58 AM
How the Maple Leafs prime their bodies for the grind of an 82-game season...

Here are a few hints:

For Connor Brown, sleep, and plenty of it, is key.  (Don't laugh, but it's purported that Lebron James gets half a day's worth of zzzzzzzs).

For Uncle Leo, it's a little bit of e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g that everyone else on the team does.

For Tyler Bozak, it's specialized compression-air  apparatus for his legs, and Cryotherapy.  Yes, Cryotherapy, or the usage of cold chambers.  Uncle Leo's a fan, too.

For JVR, it's a back contraption and skate inserts.  Not a guy to divulge too much.

For Patty Marleau, it's alternating in hot/cold tub dips.

For Roman Polak.....zip.  Nada. Nothing.  Just eat & sleep.  Simple.

For those who subscribe, there's lots more details here:
https://theathletic.com/210336/2018/01/14/from-cold-chambers-to-deep-sleeps-how-the-leafs-survive-the-seasons-physical-grind/
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on January 16, 2018, 07:51:09 AM
!!!

So, what other players in the league wear #3?

Lou is strange.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 16, 2018, 10:39:39 AM
!!!

So, what other players in the league wear #3?

Lou is strange.


It is strange, but I'm sure he didn't choose #3 to begin with, it was just given to him.  Not sure why they'd suddenly take it away unless they have a trade incoming where a #3 is on the way in?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on January 16, 2018, 10:42:27 AM
!!!

So, what other players in the league wear #3?

Lou is strange.


It is strange, but I'm sure he didn't choose #3 to begin with, it was just given to him.  Not sure why they'd suddenly take it away unless they have a trade incoming where a #3 is on the way in?

They're probably just preparing to retire the jersey of Leafs legend Dion Phaneuf.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Rob on January 16, 2018, 01:30:46 PM
!!!

So, what other players in the league wear #3?

Lou is strange.


It is strange, but I'm sure he didn't choose #3 to begin with, it was just given to him.  Not sure why they'd suddenly take it away unless they have a trade incoming where a #3 is on the way in?

They're probably just preparing to retire the jersey of Leafs legend Dion Phaneuf.


Or the Sens are sending Karlsson to Leafs along with Dion Phaneuf. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bill_Berg on January 16, 2018, 06:04:13 PM
!!!

So, what other players in the league wear #3?

Lou is strange.


It is strange, but I'm sure he didn't choose #3 to begin with, it was just given to him.  Not sure why they'd suddenly take it away unless they have a trade incoming where a #3 is on the way in?

They're probably just preparing to retire the jersey of Leafs legend Dion Phaneuf.


Or the Sens are sending Karlsson to Leafs along with Dion Phaneuf.

Maybe they're messing with Jim Hughson.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on January 16, 2018, 07:12:04 PM
Does this have anything to do with a strange movie with Jim Carrey?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 17, 2018, 09:38:43 AM

Click through to see the thread of Dermott clips and some of the detail work that he does regularly that doesn't make the highlights.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 17, 2018, 09:59:31 AM

Click through to see the thread of Dermott clips and some of the detail work that he does regularly that doesn't make the highlights.

No doubt Dermott has the tools to be a good 2nd pair option IMO.  He deserves most of the praise he's been getting.  But I still see errors being a bit too aggressive and not being on the right side of his man defensively at times.  Might be that he needs to adjust to the quickness NHL forwards can get to the net for the latter. 

Dermott did not have a good possession game last night.  15 shot-attempts against in 11 minutes is way too high.  I'd like to see more of why that occurred through video.  Looking at the shift charts, it looks like Dermott had 2 or 3 short shifts with Rielly and those must have gone horribly as Polak had 11 CA in his 11 5v5 mins (so don't just go blaming Polak for all of it)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 17, 2018, 10:19:19 AM
Dermott did not have a good possession game last night.  15 shot-attempts against in 11 minutes is way too high.  I'd like to see more of why that occurred through video.  Looking at the shift charts, it looks like Dermott had 2 or 3 short shifts with Rielly and those must have gone horribly as Polak had 11 CA in his 11 5v5 mins (so don't just go blaming Polak for all of it)

I noticed that too. Per NaturalStatTrick, Dermott played 9:22 of his 11:00 5-on-5 minutes with Polak and the Leafs had 9 shot attempts for and 10 against with the two of them on the ice (47.4% CF).

But in 1:16 of ice-time with Rielly the Leafs' shot share was 0-5. So they must have just been pinned down pretty badly in one shift or something.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 17, 2018, 11:01:21 AM
Dermott did not have a good possession game last night.  15 shot-attempts against in 11 minutes is way too high.  I'd like to see more of why that occurred through video.  Looking at the shift charts, it looks like Dermott had 2 or 3 short shifts with Rielly and those must have gone horribly as Polak had 11 CA in his 11 5v5 mins (so don't just go blaming Polak for all of it)

I noticed that too. Per NaturalStatTrick, Dermott played 9:22 of his 11:00 5-on-5 minutes with Polak and the Leafs had 9 shot attempts for and 10 against with the two of them on the ice (47.4% CF).

But in 1:16 of ice-time with Rielly the Leafs' shot share was 0-5. So they must have just been pinned down pretty badly in one shift or something.

Yeah, they definitely got pinned down.  I don't think it was entirely intentional to get Dermott out there with Rielly though.  I noticed when they changed OTF but could only get one guy changed, they would have the RD (Polak or Hainsey) come off for the next pair LD (Rielly or Dermott).  Usually if you can only change one of your D on the fly, its because the puck is coming back your way.  By the time the puck is moving back up the ice Dermott/Rielly is changing and all you've got is some shot attempts against.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 17, 2018, 11:17:51 AM
Dermott did not have a good possession game last night.  15 shot-attempts against in 11 minutes is way too high.  I'd like to see more of why that occurred through video.  Looking at the shift charts, it looks like Dermott had 2 or 3 short shifts with Rielly and those must have gone horribly as Polak had 11 CA in his 11 5v5 mins (so don't just go blaming Polak for all of it)

I noticed that too. Per NaturalStatTrick, Dermott played 9:22 of his 11:00 5-on-5 minutes with Polak and the Leafs had 9 shot attempts for and 10 against with the two of them on the ice (47.4% CF).

But in 1:16 of ice-time with Rielly the Leafs' shot share was 0-5. So they must have just been pinned down pretty badly in one shift or something.

Yeah, they definitely got pinned down.  I don't think it was entirely intentional to get Dermott out there with Rielly though.  I noticed when they changed OTF but could only get one guy changed, they would have the RD (Polak or Hainsey) come off for the next pair LD (Rielly or Dermott).  Usually if you can only change one of your D on the fly, its because the puck is coming back your way.  By the time the puck is moving back up the ice Dermott/Rielly is changing and all you've got is some shot attempts against.

That sounds about right. There is one sequence on the shift chart (late in the first or early in the second?) where Yeo got Tarasenko's group out against Dermott-Polak, so Polak jumped off immediately to get Rielly out, and Dermott got trapped.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 17, 2018, 11:39:51 AM
I haven't listened to this yet, but here we go!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 17, 2018, 12:22:03 PM
Managing expectations is the name of the game.

1.  Last year: New toys, fun fun fun, everything went right, just making playoffs okeydokey.

2.  This year: Toys no longer quite as shiny, Babcock turns off fun spigot, Matthews hurt NylanderMarner goal scoring down Marleau low on petrol Kadri WTF and of course POLAK!!!!!!!!!, jeez with a roster this talented we surely are in for a deep run right?  Right??
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 17, 2018, 12:56:17 PM
Neat graphic that shows how the Leafs have been utilizing their forwards this season:

(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/forwardIcetime/1718/TOR)


At the start of the season Komarov was the 6th/7th most used forward, nowadays he's the 3rd/4th. Hyman and Marleau also round out the top-4. Aside from Matthews of course we're just not putting our best players on the ice as much as we should. That's a problem.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 17, 2018, 12:59:30 PM
A note on JVR too: if the Leafs are even remotely considering re-signing JVR they HAVE to play him more. You cannot under any circumstances give $6mil to somebody you are treating as a 3rd liner.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on January 17, 2018, 04:40:23 PM
The lines are bad.  They have been bad for far too long.  Blow them up for once and fix them. 

JVR - Matthews - Nylander
Hyman - Bozak - Brown
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Soshnikov/Leivo - Moore/Gauthier - Kapanen
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 17, 2018, 10:37:06 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/01/17/mike-babcock-on-current-losing-slide-weve-played-better-but-didnt-get-the-results/ (https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/01/17/mike-babcock-on-current-losing-slide-weve-played-better-but-didnt-get-the-results/)

Not.  One.  Question.  Challenging.  Him.

I really think every serious media outlet needs to have writers who are essentially paid critics.  None of these pool guys will do it because they need to keep on Babcock's good side.  Whatever you may think of Larry Brooks as a writer, he got in Torts' face when he was in NY.  Can you imagine any of these guys doing that with Babcock?

And yet he shouldn't just be allowed to spin a mix of BS platitudes and blowoff lines like he does.  I don't think he's a bad coach but he and his team of assistants have made a lot of poor decisions this year.  Why can't somebody ask him directly to explain why he doesn't start OTs with Matthews?  Etc etc.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on January 17, 2018, 11:50:34 PM
Looks like Babcock is subbing in Moore but making no other changes. Nothing - not even an epically bad few months for the second line and a losing streak - will convince Babcock to break that line up. He will continue to give Komarov more ice time than any other forwards, notwithstanding a million reasons why he shouldn't, because he's the decider.

Given the tools at his disposal, I honestly think Babcock could not be making worse decisions regarding line-up management. He is shockingly and irrationally stubborn.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: azzurri63 on January 18, 2018, 12:02:32 AM
Evidence in how this team is being poorly run and coached is by looking at Matthews. Start of the season he was on fire. Looked like top 3 players in the league, up at the top of the scoring race, averaging over a point a game. Now I see him sitting 67th in league scoring. Sure he got hurt and set him back a bit but that is absolutely ridiculous and Babcock has a lot to do with that.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 18, 2018, 09:47:51 AM
Why can't somebody ask him directly to explain why he doesn't start OTs with Matthews?

In Babcock's defence on this particular point, Matthews does get the vast majority of OT time. He and Nylander have about 12 minutes each in 3-on-3 time. The next highest forwards are Marner, Marleau, and Kadri at about 8-ish each. For all the complaints about a guy like Komarov playing in OT, he's played under 2 minutes of 3-on-3 time this season. Babcock usually just tries to survive that first shift with Kadri + someone else and then he puts out the scorers and pushes.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 18, 2018, 10:00:20 AM
Hahaha I'm not fan of some of Babcock's decisions either but let's not get too myopic.

I really think every serious media outlet needs to have writers who are essentially paid critics.  None of these pool guys will do it because they need to keep on Babcock's good side.  Whatever you may think of Larry Brooks as a writer, he got in Torts' face when he was in NY.  Can you imagine any of these guys doing that with Babcock?

And yet he shouldn't just be allowed to spin a mix of BS platitudes and blowoff lines like he does.  I don't think he's a bad coach but he and his team of assistants have made a lot of poor decisions this year.  Why can't somebody ask him directly to explain why he doesn't start OTs with Matthews?  Etc etc.

There's a balance that has to be struck here. I think there have been criticisms (that you don't see because they're on The Athletic) and a lot of them fair. Asking him to explain specific tactics isn't going to get a super specific answer. My theory on why Matthews doesn't get first shift in the OT: he and Nylander are better on the fly, and he trusts Kadri can zero out the other team's top options more often than not. The chances of Matthews-Nylander scoring against 2nd units is far higher than Kadri or Marleau against 2nd units, and the chances of Kadri being scored on by the opposing first units is less than the chances of them scoring against Matthews-Nylander.

About half of this season's OTs have started with Marleau-Marner, so it's also about juggling who is freshest, who is going well this game, etc.

Looks like Babcock is subbing in Moore but making no other changes. Nothing - not even an epically bad few months for the second line and a losing streak - will convince Babcock to break that line up. He will continue to give Komarov more ice time than any other forwards, notwithstanding a million reasons why he shouldn't, because he's the decider.

Given the tools at his disposal, I honestly think Babcock could not be making worse decisions regarding line-up management. He is shockingly and irrationally stubborn.

What's clearly obvious is that Babcock is measuring for things other than the stats at the end of the night (attention to detail). If you see his decisions through the lens of wanting to develop a program and player attitude of a) being on the right side of the puck, b) taking care of your assignment, c) taking care of your body/preparation consistently, then it is pretty obvious why Komarov, Hyman, Brown consistently get the playing time and none of the 'punishment' for the missed executions they make.

The greater goal, beyond the score of one regular season game, is building a core of elite two-way talent that never takes nights off, because that's what marches teams deep into the playoffs season after season. He's deliberately providing resistance against the skilled players who have grown up through other teams being gifted ice time and high leverage situations by virtue of their scoring ability, and he wants them to be better everywhere else in their game and break through that ceiling.

Evidence in how this team is being poorly run and coached is by looking at Matthews. Start of the season he was on fire. Looked like top 3 players in the league, up at the top of the scoring race, averaging over a point a game. Now I see him sitting 67th in league scoring. Sure he got hurt and set him back a bit but that is absolutely ridiculous and Babcock has a lot to do with that.

Lol. Getting super angry about the Leafs treading water while they have had key injuries (and are still coming back from them) and eking out pity points is about as useful as being super excited about a first-month winning streak. Scoring luck comes and goes.

Matthews has played 10 fewer games and still leads the team in Pts (with minimal PP time and <20 min avg TOI. Nylander has had a garbage shooting percentage all year and is still 2nd on the team, also with minimal PP time and even less TOI. He hasn't even started clicking yet and is still on pace for 57 pts, which is just shy of his 61 last year. Marner only just started coming back to form and is also on pace for 55 playing third line minutes.

Obviously I'd like us to play better overall and we've given away a good handful of points lately due to mistakes at critical junctures, but we clearly are not maxing out our potential yet and we're still in a good position to make a healthy run. The point is, our players are being curated balanced minutes throughout the season while other teams are flogging their horses at 20+ minutes a night just to get where they are in the standings, while we are casually strolling to a playoff berth very, very rested. To win in the playoff grind, it's basically the team that has 3+ lines of attack, and carrying the fewest injuries (a hot goalie helps too).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on January 18, 2018, 11:18:37 AM
Just wanted to compliment your post Herman, very insightful.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 18, 2018, 11:45:48 AM

Well damn, if nobody WANTS to give up their minutes then yeah that puts Babcock in a really tough spot as a head coach.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on January 18, 2018, 12:15:50 PM
Hahaha I'm not fan of some of Babcock's decisions either but let's not get too myopic.


Looks like Babcock is subbing in Moore but making no other changes. Nothing - not even an epically bad few months for the second line and a losing streak - will convince Babcock to break that line up. He will continue to give Komarov more ice time than any other forwards, notwithstanding a million reasons why he shouldn't, because he's the decider.

Given the tools at his disposal, I honestly think Babcock could not be making worse decisions regarding line-up management. He is shockingly and irrationally stubborn.

What's clearly obvious is that Babcock is measuring for things other than the stats at the end of the night (attention to detail). If you see his decisions through the lens of wanting to develop a program and player attitude of a) being on the right side of the puck, b) taking care of your assignment, c) taking care of your body/preparation consistently, then it is pretty obvious why Komarov, Hyman, Brown consistently get the playing time and none of the 'punishment' for the missed executions they make.

The greater goal, beyond the score of one regular season game, is building a core of elite two-way talent that never takes nights off, because that's what marches teams deep into the playoffs season after season. He's deliberately providing resistance against the skilled players who have grown up through other teams being gifted ice time and high leverage situations by virtue of their scoring ability, and he wants them to be better everywhere else in their game and break through that ceiling.


You haven't shown why playing Komarov and Hymen more than any other players on the team helps to "develop a program". They are not good two way players. In fact, they are arguably not even good defensive players, depending on what you think about the importance of possession to defence. Hymen appears to be a serviceable third liner and Komarov is now a borderline NHLer/PK specialist.

Playing those guys more than other players who are actually capable of sustaining offensive pressure and possession does nothing but hurt the team's performance (in the short-term) and the team's confidence (in the long-term).

Babcock seems to be a relic of the 90s, in the sense that he appears to be willing to ignore advanced stats and go with his gut. The interesting part is that his gut has led the team astray for months and yet he is unwilling to change his mind or listen to the experts.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Chris on January 18, 2018, 12:25:39 PM
The more I watch the team, the more I think Hyman is a big problem for the Matthews line. Earlier on I was willing to buy the Babcock line about how he gets the puck for the other 2 guys, but the more I watch the less I believe that. He gets in there fast and occasionally wins a puck battle, but not often enough in my opinion for the otherwise complete lack of offense he provides. Matthews and Nylander almost never pass the puck to him and I think other teams have adjusted to that...and they seem to be keeping them to the outside a lot more because of it. So who do you put there? I think the best answer is actually the player who should be on the Leafs roster but isn't...Kapanen. He's not as big as Hyman and maybe not as fast, but he plays a heavy game for his size and brings way more offensive upside. I think the line would be much more dangerous with him on the left side.

Other options...Marleau doesn't seem to be effective enough as a forechecker from what I see. Could Brown work on the left side? Again, way more offensive ability than Hyman but not as fast. I won't even mention Leivo (oops). Some have mentioned JVR as an option there. Not sure, he's not particularly great in the corners or as a puck handler.

Anyway, it's not going to matter. Babcock is paid to decide and it looks like he is digging in his heels.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on January 18, 2018, 12:31:15 PM
Credit to @B1rky on twitter for a good little summary of some of what ails the Leafs.

Quote
There's a certain argument for sports (and anything, really) that progress isn't linear. I think it's natural for fans to assume (and expect) a meteoric rise, but sometimes things take time. Sometimes, progress means taking steps over time.

The issue in pro sports these days is that players peak so young, and are only cost controlled for so long, that the window for a 'perfect storm' of success is small.

The Leafs have all kinds of young talent that can produce at the NHL level, including guys in the AHL who would likely be NHLers on maybe 15-20 other teams.

The fact that Toronto can't seem to find a way to utilize this advantage (where player performance is trending upwards and salaries remain low) is puzzling.  The fact that Toronto is paying Connor Brown based on a 20 goal season and playing him as a 4th liner is puzzling.

We're starting to see the frustration within the fan base boil over after yet another season of this kind of player deployment. Komarov playing 20 minutes a night. Polak playing at all. Overworking Andersen. Matt Martin.

When people talk about bad contracts for role players, this is what they are speaking about: death by a thousand cuts.  It's not just one of these lineup choices. It's all of them at the same time. A team can probably absorb one or two.

Toronto barely made it into the playoffs last season. They'll get in this year because there is no pressure from the teams below them. But they're probably still the 7th or 8th best team in the East. In a league where slightly more than half of the teams make the playoffs.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 18, 2018, 01:08:04 PM
You haven't shown why playing Komarov and Hyman more than any other players on the team helps to "develop a program". They are not good two way players. In fact, they are arguably not even good defensive players, depending on what you think about the importance of possession to defence. Hymen appears to be a serviceable third liner and Komarov is now a borderline NHLer/PK specialist.

Playing those guys more than other players who are actually capable of sustaining offensive pressure and possession does nothing but hurt the team's performance (in the short-term) and the team's confidence (in the long-term).

Babcock seems to be a relic of the 90s, in the sense that he appears to be willing to ignore advanced stats and go with his gut. The interesting part is that his gut has led the team astray for months and yet he is unwilling to change his mind or listen to the experts.

Actually, I've shown you why Babcock chooses to deploy them more, but I didn't demonstrated how that has been effective (if at all). The results that we look at are outputs: goals, points, even shot differentials. They're all the end result of a sequence of events predicated on a) system, b) decision making within the system, c) physical capability to execute the system, and d) external forces (i.e. the other team's tactics). We don't have the micro-data to analyze this publicly, but according to Justin Bourne in the podcast referenced previously, these Babcock favourites do it the 'right' way Babcock wants, with great consistency. Where they occasionally falter is in talent-level execution of certain plays, and in Komarov's case, his physical capability. Their system hasn't really changed since Babcock took over, btw. The increase in dumping and chasing is more because other teams have adjusted to the Leafs and are treating them as threats.

Ultimately, the 'program' is not really for these favourite depth guys: they already know what they're doing. It's for the Marners and Nylanders (and similar Marlies) who are so blessed with talent that they've never had to deal with the details (these are the types of players we want to be drafting, right?). Remember Kessel's response to his junior coach who sort of got mad that his lackadaisical defense cost them a goal? "I'll just get a another". And he did and routinely could in that league. In the NHL, that's not a guarantee, and our talent isn't quite at that level. Look at how Gretzky coached. Without a doubt one of the greatest offensive players and minds for the game, overflowing with talent. Couldn't coach his teams worth a lick because all his detail processing was subconscious (so he couldn't communicate that) and I'd say he rarely ever had to try.

What can be controlled though is how players position themselves relative to the puck and play, what they are thinking regarding the game states, etc. So in this developmental period of time, and stage of the build, and segment of the regular season, ice time reward gets allocated according to who is most successful at doing what the coach wants, rather than who lays out the most points. Babcock is in the unique situation where he has both the chutzpah, tenure, and cachet to pull it off.

All I'm suggesting here is that the majority of our analysis is judging by results, and Babcock is judging by the inputs he can see. Rightly or wrongly, this is not irrational stubbornness. His preferred style is simple and conservative (and hella boring). Remember his comments about the World Cup at the beginning of last year when he was asked about Team North America? I'm paraphrasing, but it was to the effect of, "Looks fun, eh? but I like to win." And Team Canada won there, and at Sochi before; with overwhelming talent, yes, but playing a very staid, stifling style, and letting scoring talent overmatch in the offensive zone once set up, or off of turnovers.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 18, 2018, 01:14:21 PM
Just wanted to compliment your post Herman, very insightful.

Thanks Highlander. I could still be wrong about lots of things though! I have no insider knowledge or whatever. Just what I've gleaned from what those with access have said and what it looks like is happening. Babcock's interview responses are quite consistent with my current view of the situation.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Rob on January 18, 2018, 03:26:23 PM
Just wanted to compliment your post Herman, very insightful.

Thanks Highlander. I could still be wrong about lots of things though! I have no insider knowledge or whatever. Just what I've gleaned from what those with access have said and what it looks like is happening. Babcock's interview responses are quite consistent with my current view of the situation.

I second Highlander's commendation. 

I think you are bang on Herman. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 18, 2018, 04:02:00 PM
Hahaha I'm not fan of some of Babcock's decisions either but let's not get too myopic.

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on Yesterday at 10:37:06 PM

Perhaps you're being a bit myopic yourself.  The main thrust of my comment was not on the particular Matthews question but on why the media is afraid to challenge Babcock directly.  Read through the presser and you see one creampuff after another.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 18, 2018, 04:32:31 PM
Perhaps you're being a bit myopic yourself.  The main thrust of my comment was not on the particular Matthews question but on why the media is afraid to challenge Babcock directly.  Read through the presser and you see one creampuff after another.

As someone with myopia, of course I am being myopic. I don't look as good as Carrick or Dubas though. Le sigh.

Maybe the media also see it the way I see it. Bob McKenzie, who isn't even on the beat, has outlined similarly what I've observed. It sounds like you want the coach to be swayed by media pressure. A third of a season of the team struggling against focused opposing pressure is enough of a sample size to grab pitchforks and torches?

What goal is being achieved if the beat reporters were hurling hard hitting questions? Why is their reticence to ask harder questions a cause of anger? It's a bit similar to the Leafs struggles; they're dumping and chasing in the face of tighter checking, rather than holding the puck they want to. Maybe a reporter out there wants to buzz Babcock with a fastball high and inside, but Babcock always kicks off his pressers by pre-steering the conversation deliberately. Maybe it's just me, but I don't see the point in feeling anything about this.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on January 18, 2018, 04:44:13 PM
From Mirtle Mailbag (TheAthletic): A question someone posed...



Upon reading the response to the question, this is the summation I garnered (my own words):

Truth is, Babcock was deploying the usage of player minutes during his coaching tenure in Detroit, much in the same way he's doing with the Leafs.

Gardiner has the team's highest minutes players (22) and ranks 40th among defencemen n the league, while Matthews has the team's highest minutes and ranks 62nd among forwards in the league.

The Reilly/Hainsey pairing gets fewer minutes combined than the Gardiner/Zaltsev pairing.  At first this may seem odd, but the Leafs top D gets many more tough minutes at 5v5.

And of special teams?  Again, there is no particular strategy except that it's assigned to an odd mix of one or two lines/units/players. 

All of this points to some sort of the Bettle (Dr. Jeremy Bettle) approach that not only Babcock but the rest of the Leafs management (Science Dept., etc) has embraced.  Babcock has never been a user or distributor of minutes as evident throughout his coaching career.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on January 18, 2018, 06:42:21 PM
Just wanted to compliment your post Herman, very insightful.

To the mods: I accidentally clicked "report to moderator" on Highlander's post.  His post is clearly fine.  My bad.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 18, 2018, 07:21:47 PM
Perhaps you're being a bit myopic yourself.  The main thrust of my comment was not on the particular Matthews question but on why the media is afraid to challenge Babcock directly.  Read through the presser and you see one creampuff after another.

As someone with myopia, of course I am being myopic. I don't look as good as Carrick or Dubas though. Le sigh.

Maybe the media also see it the way I see it. Bob McKenzie, who isn't even on the beat, has outlined similarly what I've observed. It sounds like you want the coach to be swayed by media pressure. A third of a season of the team struggling against focused opposing pressure is enough of a sample size to grab pitchforks and torches?

What goal is being achieved if the beat reporters were hurling hard hitting questions? Why is their reticence to ask harder questions a cause of anger? It's a bit similar to the Leafs struggles; they're dumping and chasing in the face of tighter checking, rather than holding the puck they want to. Maybe a reporter out there wants to buzz Babcock with a fastball high and inside, but Babcock always kicks off his pressers by pre-steering the conversation deliberately. Maybe it's just me, but I don't see the point in feeling anything about this.

No, I don't want him to be swayed by reporters, but I do think as a public figure he ought to expect to be asked, and be willing to address, tough questions.  The reason I feel strongly about it is that I think sports journalism could be a lot better than it is.  Most of it isn't even journalism.  It's just ritualized banter designed to be non-offensive.  It's fake.  It would be much more interesting if there was a real dialogue.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on January 18, 2018, 08:17:08 PM
No, I don't want him to be swayed by reporters, but I do think as a public figure he ought to expect to be asked, and be willing to address, tough questions.  The reason I feel strongly about it is that I think sports journalism could be a lot better than it is.  Most of it isn't even journalism.  It's just ritualized banter designed to be non-offensive.  It's fake.  It would be much more interesting if there was a real dialogue.

Exactly, nobody is asking the reporters to call him an a$$hole.

It's clear a significant portion of the fanbase is frustrated, the media is frustrated amongst themselves and then when they get in front of the one guy who could go a long way to easing those frustrations, they don't even ask him anything that might make him have to pause and answer respectfully. They could politely corner him into offering a layman's explanation to the people who financially support the hockey club.

Nobody is asking him for his entire system breakdown or the reason for every decision, but pointing out the inconsistencies between what he says and what he does (favoring the vet, inexplicable icetime distribution, having a fly swatter on the fourth line that no longer swats flies) and asking for an explanation isn't unreasonable, when every metric the public has to measure these decisions points to them being illogical.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on January 18, 2018, 10:45:21 PM
Credit to @B1rky on twitter for a good little summary of some of what ails the Leafs.

Quote
Toronto barely made it into the playoffs last season. They'll get in this year because there is no pressure from the teams below them. But they're probably still the 7th or 8th best team in the East. In a league where slightly more than half of the teams make the playoffs.

mirtle: Leafs have five regulation/overtime wins in their last 20 games.

At this rate, that's not even a certainty. If one of Florida, Montreal, or Detroit go on a stretch where they win 7 or 8 out of 10, and the Leafs keep fumbling around, it's gonna get awfully tight.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 18, 2018, 11:24:43 PM
At this rate, that's not even a certainty. If one of Florida, Montreal, or Detroit go on a stretch where they win 7 or 8 out of 10, and the Leafs keep fumbling around, it's gonna get awfully tight.

It's honestly hilarious how far back Detroit/Florida/Montreal are, even after our struggles. Hopefully it's still funny at the end of the season.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Guilt Trip on January 18, 2018, 11:29:34 PM
At this rate, that's not even a certainty. If one of Florida, Montreal, or Detroit go on a stretch where they win 7 or 8 out of 10, and the Leafs keep fumbling around, it's gonna get awfully tight.

It's honestly hilarious how far back Detroit/Florida/Montreal are, even after our struggles. Hopefully it's still funny at the end of the season.
Exactly. Does anyone seriously see any of those teams going on a big run?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 18, 2018, 11:34:11 PM

(https://www.newstatesman.com/sites/default/files/styles/nodeimage/public/blogs_2017/02/fine.jpg?itok=WF82Xsi2)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on January 18, 2018, 11:56:57 PM
Exactly. Does anyone seriously see any of those teams going on a big run?

All it takes is a goalie to get hot - and two of those teams have goalies very much capable of carrying their team for a stretch.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 19, 2018, 12:28:23 AM
Exactly. Does anyone seriously see any of those teams going on a big run?

All it takes is a goalie to get hot - and two of those teams have goalies very much capable of carrying their team for a stretch.

It hardly matters. The team hasn't made any real strides over last year and is no threat to have a long run.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on January 19, 2018, 08:22:08 AM
I'm starting to think all these questionable decisions are intentional.  It's like Babcock is trying to keep the team and, more importantly, his young players from really breaking out.  Like he needs to prevent them from getting PAID too much too soon.  And he's been able to secretly do it under the guise of teaching them to play "right".  It's a bit of a conspiracy theory, but more and more I believe it to be true.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 19, 2018, 08:59:59 AM
I'm starting to think all these questionable decisions are intentional.  It's like Babcock is trying to keep the team and, more importantly, his young players from really breaking out.  Like he needs to prevent them from getting PAID too much too soon.  And he's been able to secretly do it under the guise of teaching them to play "right".  It's a bit of a conspiracy theory, but more and more I believe it to be true.

I don't buy this at all.  The coach won't care what players get paid or intentionally try to keep stats down to help contracts.  They're paid to produce wins, and right now things aren't going so well.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 19, 2018, 09:14:23 AM
I'm starting to think all these questionable decisions are intentional.  It's like Babcock is trying to keep the team and, more importantly, his young players from really breaking out.  Like he needs to prevent them from getting PAID too much too soon.  And he's been able to secretly do it under the guise of teaching them to play "right".  It's a bit of a conspiracy theory, but more and more I believe it to be true.

I don't buy this at all.  The coach won't care what players get paid or intentionally try to keep stats down to help contracts.  They're paid to produce wins, and right now things aren't going so well.

I think (obviously) there is some intention, but the intention isn't to suppress salaries. By the same token, the intention isn't to get Matthews and Nylander and Marner the most goals they can get either.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 19, 2018, 10:30:07 AM
By the same token, the intention isn't to get Matthews and Nylander and Marner the most goals they can get either.

At some point he's gotta rethink that:
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 19, 2018, 10:46:16 AM
By the same token, the intention isn't to get Matthews and Nylander and Marner the most goals they can get either.

At some point he's gotta rethink that

I don't disagree. If it were up to me, I'd play the kids up and down the lineup, but there are some trust issues to sort out with the Coach.

Pittsburgh and Tampa  (and Boston!) hit their strides with their high talent rosters when they bumped up their AHL coach to the NHL. I believe it is largely due to those coaches trusting the younger depth players (Guentzal, Sheary, Point, Johnson, Palat, Kucherov) and letting them elevate the team at pennies on the dollar.

Granted, those three teams have superstar veterans anchoring the top positions aleady, while ours are bordering on middling (Kadri, JvR, Gardiner). I understand where Babcock is coming from, as outlined previously, but it's past time to shelve the likes of Komarov, Polak, Bozak, Martin, even if the Big Three aren't 100% pro-veteran 1000-gamers yet. Vegas is showing that a speedy 4th line can still get the job done. Philly showed obviously that skilled forwards on the PK needs only be feared by the opposing team.

They should've traded the pending UFAs last year or earlier and given more time to the clearly graduated Marlies time to adjust during the gimme season last year, when we only got into the playoffs by virtue of Tampa's injuries.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: mr grieves on January 19, 2018, 10:49:46 AM
Looks like Babcock is subbing in Moore but making no other changes. Nothing - not even an epically bad few months for the second line and a losing streak - will convince Babcock to break that line up. He will continue to give Komarov more ice time than any other forwards, notwithstanding a million reasons why he shouldn't, because he's the decider.

Given the tools at his disposal, I honestly think Babcock could not be making worse decisions regarding line-up management. He is shockingly and irrationally stubborn.

What's clearly obvious is that Babcock is measuring for things other than the stats at the end of the night (attention to detail). If you see his decisions through the lens of wanting to develop a program and player attitude of a) being on the right side of the puck, b) taking care of your assignment, c) taking care of your body/preparation consistently, then it is pretty obvious why Komarov, Hyman, Brown consistently get the playing time and none of the 'punishment' for the missed executions they make.

The greater goal, beyond the score of one regular season game, is building a core of elite two-way talent that never takes nights off, because that's what marches teams deep into the playoffs season after season. He's deliberately providing resistance against the skilled players who have grown up through other teams being gifted ice time and high leverage situations by virtue of their scoring ability, and he wants them to be better everywhere else in their game and break through that ceiling.

I think this is a really charitable, optimistic read of what's going on with the team right now, but I'd find it plausible if:

1. Babcock weren't playing -- game in, game out -- the sort of guys he's always played because he thinks they give his teams the best chance to win (Komarov, Polak, Martin, Andersen), instead of younger, NHL-ready players who have the potential to be developed into two-way players (or giving his goalie a break). All indications coming out of training camp were that Babcock's decisions were keyed to his desire to have the best chance to win every night -- all that's changed is that they're no longer winning, so those favorably disposed toward him (lookit that Team Canada record!) have to connect a mediocre record and relatively poor play with an unchanging line-up. If this were a teaching/development year, we'd see more things like players being tested in different roles for a decent run of games.

and

2. We could actually point to some evidence that, over the 20-30 games that the team's been playing well below their abilities (in terms of 'outputs'), Babcock's development plan is producing any tangible improvements. Marner and Nylander don't look, to me, like they're playing better two-way games. They just look stifled, uncertain, and often without adequate support.  I also don't buy that shot differentials are an 'output' -- positive shot differentials, out-Corsi-ing the opposition, winning the scoring chance battle, etc. are, and have long been understood as, the controllable 'inputs' that can lead to desired outcomes. Redefining the 'inputs' down to the stuff Babcock's 'measuring' -- attention to detail, decision making within the system, ability to 'dig in' -- seems, to me, a lot like what the Carlyle apologists were doing  a few years back, albeit with a narrative appended that justifies frittering away the cost-controlled years of elite talent.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on January 19, 2018, 11:16:20 AM
Is Mogan injured? :'(
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 19, 2018, 03:46:24 PM
I think this is a really charitable, optimistic read of what's going on with the team right now, but I'd find it plausible if:

1. Babcock weren't playing -- game in, game out -- the sort of guys he's always played because he thinks they give his teams the best chance to win (Komarov, Polak, Martin, Andersen), instead of younger, NHL-ready players who have the potential to be developed into two-way players (or giving his goalie a break). All indications coming out of training camp were that Babcock's decisions were keyed to his desire to have the best chance to win every night -- all that's changed is that they're no longer winning, so those favorably disposed toward him (lookit that Team Canada record!) have to connect a mediocre record and relatively poor play with an unchanging line-up. If this were a teaching/development year, we'd see more things like players being tested in different roles for a decent run of games.

and

2. We could actually point to some evidence that, over the 20-30 games that the team's been playing well below their abilities (in terms of 'outputs'), Babcock's development plan is producing any tangible improvements. Marner and Nylander don't look, to me, like they're playing better two-way games. They just look stifled, uncertain, and often without adequate support.  I also don't buy that shot differentials are an 'output' -- positive shot differentials, out-Corsi-ing the opposition, winning the scoring chance battle, etc. are, and have long been understood as, the controllable 'inputs' that can lead to desired outcomes. Redefining the 'inputs' down to the stuff Babcock's 'measuring' -- attention to detail, decision making within the system, ability to 'dig in' -- seems, to me, a lot like what the Carlyle apologists were doing  a few years back, albeit with a narrative appended that justifies frittering away the cost-controlled years of elite talent.

Let's clarify inputs and outputs here.

Shots attempts are outputs; their frequency merely makes them a more stable metric than goals. We know and agree that good shooting metrics generally lead to more goals and, in turn, victories.

Good shooting metrics are fueled by micro outputs like zone exits and entries with possession (possession in general), successful passes. How are these achieved?

Inputs are the system decisions, player deployment, positioning, and play execution. Basically all measurable stats are outputs because they are an event outcome. Attention to detail and decision making within the system refers to which side of the puck the players aim to play on.

JvR's defensive stats are usually not great because he tends to angle his body and stick in the defensive zone to pounce on turnovers, rather than to stay between the puck and the net to generate them. Coaches sort of live with that in JvR because he tends to also make good on them when the puck goes his way. Hyman is the opposite and generally angles the puck into an uncomfortable side for the carrier to control; then he takes it and chips it ahead, or establishes body positioning and shelters the puck up the ice before dumping it. Babcock loves Hyman because he does this every single time he has a play on the puck.

See here for a JvR example of inattention to detail.
https://theathletic.com/183669/2017/12/13/bourne-on-details-staying-above-and-the-inches-that-cost-the-leafs-against-the-flyers/

Marner was getting a lot of penalties earlier in the season because he didn't establish strong positioning (and his body isn't the kind to overcome suboptimal positioning) and had to rely on his stick to try to fish the puck out. Nylander has been really good along the boards since halfway through last year because he's been protecting his stick with his sneaky strong legs and taking smart angles under the defense.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 19, 2018, 04:15:24 PM
Marner and Nylander don't look, to me, like they're playing better two-way games. They just look stifled, uncertain, and often without adequate support. 

[...]

 a narrative appended that justifies frittering away the cost-controlled years of elite talent.

I want to touch on this a bit more specifically. Again I'm not trying to say Babcock is 100% correct, but this is clearly what he's angling for in my observation, and uh I guess his own words.


So are Marner and Nylander struggling under this 'new' directive and expectation? Of course they are. Like I said earlier, they're high octane offensive dynamos who never had to play defense (how friggin lucky are we that Matthews is already well above average there?). So naturally, because this isn't the Matrix, there's a learning curve and there are new challenges every night on the ice. They look slow and stifled at times because they're not playing on instinct (as they were last year for the most part). Babcock is aiming to instill a modicum of consistent defensive play into their instinctual levels, so it is both natural for them to be strong on the puck, well positioned away from the play, and still flex their creativity and dynamism once they earned open ice.

Last season was the confidence builder -- they got their 15+ minutes regardless (and it helped on the scoresheet). This season is the buckle down and work under higher expectations year. So some nights they're going to ride the 4th line where it is impossible for them to cheat for offense because the other two guys on the line don't have the skill to feed it to them. I think it will click for them sooner rather than later and it'll be really scary for many years to come.

As for frittering away their ELCs... I don't think management is as concerned about jumping through this current 'window' regardless of consequence. Sure they still want to win, and doing so during this time would be a nice bonus to allow for some other high priced talent on the roster, but I don't see their actions as going all in at this time. They always knew they'd have to pay these three; they're stocking up on cheap homegrown depth, which is where the savings will be.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on January 19, 2018, 04:29:56 PM
Marner on the 4th line at practice.  Shocking development from Babcock that Marner/Nylander are his go to demotions
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: AvroArrow on January 19, 2018, 06:22:15 PM
I'm starting to think all these questionable decisions are intentional.  It's like Babcock is trying to keep the team and, more importantly, his young players from really breaking out.  Like he needs to prevent them from getting PAID too much too soon.  And he's been able to secretly do it under the guise of teaching them to play "right".  It's a bit of a conspiracy theory, but more and more I believe it to be true.

I don't buy this at all.  The coach won't care what players get paid or intentionally try to keep stats down to help contracts.  They're paid to produce wins, and right now things aren't going so well.

But wasn't one of the big sticking points with Babcock that he wanted a voice in the personnel decisions?  I don't think it's far fetched that he's controlling the development of the team (to the extent that he can) to keep control of the roster and cap.

It's actually a very forward thinking proposition.  Before your offensive stars break out offensively, force them to learn the game defensively.  Which will no doubt degrade their offensive statistics keeping their salaries down in the short term.  Nylander is a prime example - he's gone from a guaranteed 6-7M long term contract to what will likely amount to a 3-4M 2 year bridge deal.  That buys the team more time to grow, compete, and deal with the cap.

Think of Matthews - literally the only way to slow him down from putting up 100+ points is to control his ice time.  Well, that and Hyman ;)

Like I said, it's definitely conspiracy theory-ist... But I think the mgmt team might be that smart...
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: mr grieves on January 19, 2018, 06:28:11 PM
I think this is a really charitable, optimistic read of what's going on with the team right now, but I'd find it plausible if:

1. Babcock weren't playing -- game in, game out -- the sort of guys he's always played because he thinks they give his teams the best chance to win (Komarov, Polak, Martin, Andersen), instead of younger, NHL-ready players who have the potential to be developed into two-way players (or giving his goalie a break). All indications coming out of training camp were that Babcock's decisions were keyed to his desire to have the best chance to win every night -- all that's changed is that they're no longer winning, so those favorably disposed toward him (lookit that Team Canada record!) have to connect a mediocre record and relatively poor play with an unchanging line-up. If this were a teaching/development year, we'd see more things like players being tested in different roles for a decent run of games.

and

2. We could actually point to some evidence that, over the 20-30 games that the team's been playing well below their abilities (in terms of 'outputs'), Babcock's development plan is producing any tangible improvements. Marner and Nylander don't look, to me, like they're playing better two-way games. They just look stifled, uncertain, and often without adequate support.  I also don't buy that shot differentials are an 'output' -- positive shot differentials, out-Corsi-ing the opposition, winning the scoring chance battle, etc. are, and have long been understood as, the controllable 'inputs' that can lead to desired outcomes. Redefining the 'inputs' down to the stuff Babcock's 'measuring' -- attention to detail, decision making within the system, ability to 'dig in' -- seems, to me, a lot like what the Carlyle apologists were doing  a few years back, albeit with a narrative appended that justifies frittering away the cost-controlled years of elite talent.

Let's clarify inputs and outputs here.

[...snip!]

Marner was getting a lot of penalties earlier in the season because he didn't establish strong positioning (and his body isn't the kind to overcome suboptimal positioning) and had to rely on his stick to try to fish the puck out. Nylander has been really good along the boards since halfway through last year because he's been protecting his stick with his sneaky strong legs and taking smart angles under the defense.

Yes, herman. I too pay my dollars/month to Mirtle and read Justin Bourne. Nylander's doing about what he was doing last season, but the way they're playing, his greatest strength -- controlled zone entries -- doesn't get used, despite the fact that this skill is generally more useful in winning games both in the season and playoffs than chipping and chasing and angling oneself safely. Marner's taking fewer penlties and that's nice, but he -- and the team as a whole -- can't get anything going offensively, so they're drawing (even?) fewer penalties, so... it's a wash.

My point remains: you should have something other than video of a few isolated plays to evidence that there's anything good coming out of this most recent exercise in Babcockian egotism and stubbornness.

As for Babcock in his own words bit (reply #762) on the terrible line-up decisions... echoes of Randy and 'compete.' Loosen your helmet. It's nonsense.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: mr grieves on January 19, 2018, 06:30:41 PM
Like I said, it's definitely conspiracy theory-ist... But I think the mgmt team might be that smart...

Lou's shortsightedness and feeble conservatism is now 12th dimensional chess, Babcock quoting George W Bush's "decider" line is good.

Trump has ruined y'all.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 19, 2018, 10:19:45 PM

Komarov's getting re-signed. The new Dan Cleary.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: BrownRolo on January 20, 2018, 12:32:58 AM

Komarov's getting re-signed. The new Dan Cleary.

I'd be fine if he re-signed something like a 3 year, 4.5 million deal.

Play him 4th line minutes plus PK.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: hockeyfan1 on January 20, 2018, 03:54:26 AM
It's starting to sound bleak around here, so for a deviation from the norm of conversation...

(Older January article): 
How Connor Carrick keeps himself in good health in terms of food choices/dietary regimen...


and, coffee for athletes:

(https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/330x250q90/924/nKs5OB.jpg)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 20, 2018, 11:52:22 AM
I'd be fine if he re-signed something like a 3 year, 4.5 million deal.

Oh Jesus please tell me you don't mean per year...
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on January 20, 2018, 12:21:58 PM
You haven't shown why playing Komarov and Hyman more than any other players on the team helps to "develop a program". They are not good two way players. In fact, they are arguably not even good defensive players, depending on what you think about the importance of possession to defence. Hymen appears to be a serviceable third liner and Komarov is now a borderline NHLer/PK specialist.

Playing those guys more than other players who are actually capable of sustaining offensive pressure and possession does nothing but hurt the team's performance (in the short-term) and the team's confidence (in the long-term).

Babcock seems to be a relic of the 90s, in the sense that he appears to be willing to ignore advanced stats and go with his gut. The interesting part is that his gut has led the team astray for months and yet he is unwilling to change his mind or listen to the experts.

Actually, I've shown you why Babcock chooses to deploy them more, but I didn't demonstrated how that has been effective (if at all). The results that we look at are outputs: goals, points, even shot differentials. They're all the end result of a sequence of events predicated on a) system, b) decision making within the system, c) physical capability to execute the system, and d) external forces (i.e. the other team's tactics). We don't have the micro-data to analyze this publicly, but according to Justin Bourne in the podcast referenced previously, these Babcock favourites do it the 'right' way Babcock wants, with great consistency. Where they occasionally falter is in talent-level execution of certain plays, and in Komarov's case, his physical capability. Their system hasn't really changed since Babcock took over, btw. The increase in dumping and chasing is more because other teams have adjusted to the Leafs and are treating them as threats.

Ultimately, the 'program' is not really for these favourite depth guys: they already know what they're doing. It's for the Marners and Nylanders (and similar Marlies) who are so blessed with talent that they've never had to deal with the details (these are the types of players we want to be drafting, right?). Remember Kessel's response to his junior coach who sort of got mad that his lackadaisical defense cost them a goal? "I'll just get a another". And he did and routinely could in that league. In the NHL, that's not a guarantee, and our talent isn't quite at that level. Look at how Gretzky coached. Without a doubt one of the greatest offensive players and minds for the game, overflowing with talent. Couldn't coach his teams worth a lick because all his detail processing was subconscious (so he couldn't communicate that) and I'd say he rarely ever had to try.

What can be controlled though is how players position themselves relative to the puck and play, what they are thinking regarding the game states, etc. So in this developmental period of time, and stage of the build, and segment of the regular season, ice time reward gets allocated according to who is most successful at doing what the coach wants, rather than who lays out the most points. Babcock is in the unique situation where he has both the chutzpah, tenure, and cachet to pull it off.

All I'm suggesting here is that the majority of our analysis is judging by results, and Babcock is judging by the inputs he can see. Rightly or wrongly, this is not irrational stubbornness. His preferred style is simple and conservative (and hella boring). Remember his comments about the World Cup at the beginning of last year when he was asked about Team North America? I'm paraphrasing, but it was to the effect of, "Looks fun, eh? but I like to win." And Team Canada won there, and at Sochi before; with overwhelming talent, yes, but playing a very staid, stifling style, and letting scoring talent overmatch in the offensive zone once set up, or off of turnovers.

I tried to follow your post but to be honest (and glib), your rationalization of Babcock's decision-making seems to me to be totally bonkers. You seem to be suggesting that our analysis is judged by "results" (i.e. what is happening on the ice) and that's somehow wrong. You also seem to be suggesting that Komarov isn't good, even by Babcock's bizarro-world metrics (which seem to ignore points, wins, possession, shots and, apparently, anything actually happening on the ice) but that's fine because it's contributing to a culture of good decision-making... or something.

The Leafs have played a sub-optimal line-up for months. That line-up has played objectively terribly for months, struggling in all aspects of the game. Babcock has failed to make adjustments for months - even obvious ones. Everybody is frustrated.

None of that suggests that Babcock is doing a good job.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: L K on January 20, 2018, 12:22:20 PM
I'd be fine if he re-signed something like a 3 year, 4.5 million deal.

Oh Jesus please tell me you don't mean per year...

Right now the Leafs have Leivo, Soshnikov, and Kapanen who could easily slit into the lineup.   That ignores free agency and further development from Andreas Johnson.   I think Uncle Leo needs to find a new home next year.

Would he be ok on the 4th line, sure.   Thats what happens when you sign Matt Martin to. Multi-year contract though.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Chris on January 20, 2018, 01:00:47 PM
If Kapanen isn't in the lineup full time next year (and maybe even at the end of this year, depending on moves/injuries), there is definitely something wrong with Leafs management.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 20, 2018, 03:09:49 PM
I tried to follow your post but to be honest (and glib), your rationalization of Babcock's decision-making seems to me to be totally bonkers. You seem to be suggesting that our analysis is judged by "results" (i.e. what is happening on the ice) and that's somehow wrong. You also seem to be suggesting that Komarov isn't good, even by Babcock's bizarro-world metrics (which seem to ignore points, wins, possession, shots and, apparently, anything actually happening on the ice) but that's fine because it's contributing to a culture of good decision-making... or something.

The Leafs have played a sub-optimal line-up for months. That line-up has played objectively terribly for months, struggling in all aspects of the game. Babcock has failed to make adjustments for months - even obvious ones. Everybody is frustrated.

None of that suggests that Babcock is doing a good job.

I gather that you are frustrated in the team and understandably so. All I was trying to do was translate why Babcock was making these decisions (which I dont necessarily agree with all of). Babcock has been consistent about this his entire time here (gud pro). Last year was fun because he kind of let the kids do their thing to build their confidence. This year they are getting Riellyd and since theyre the offense drivers, their dip from the steepened learning curve is more apparent.

Im not saying our analysis of results is wrong, or that Babcock is ignorant of them. It comes down to what his priorities are, and pushing Marner and Nylander into playing with Datsyukian effort every night he believes will yield a greater, longer lasting reward down the line.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Strangelove on January 20, 2018, 05:20:19 PM
I tried to follow your post but to be honest (and glib), your rationalization of Babcock's decision-making seems to me to be totally bonkers. You seem to be suggesting that our analysis is judged by "results" (i.e. what is happening on the ice) and that's somehow wrong. You also seem to be suggesting that Komarov isn't good, even by Babcock's bizarro-world metrics (which seem to ignore points, wins, possession, shots and, apparently, anything actually happening on the ice) but that's fine because it's contributing to a culture of good decision-making... or something.

The Leafs have played a sub-optimal line-up for months. That line-up has played objectively terribly for months, struggling in all aspects of the game. Babcock has failed to make adjustments for months - even obvious ones. Everybody is frustrated.

None of that suggests that Babcock is doing a good job.

I gather that you are frustrated in the team and understandably so. All I was trying to do was translate why Babcock was making these decisions (which I dont necessarily agree with all of). Babcock has been consistent about this his entire time here (gud pro). Last year was fun because he kind of let the kids do their thing to build their confidence. This year they are getting Riellyd and since theyre the offense drivers, their dip from the steepened learning curve is more apparent.

Im not saying our analysis of results is wrong, or that Babcock is ignorant of them. It comes down to what his priorities are, and pushing Marner and Nylander into playing with Datsyukian effort every night he believes will yield a greater, longer lasting reward down the line.

Fair enough. At some point, however, Babcock has to realize that it isnt the teams effort thats deficient but the system - his system - itself. There is a plethora of evidence to reinforce that conclusion.

To insist on playing in a way that is demonstrably unsuitable to the team as currently constructed - particularly when there are clear viable alternatives to the current system - is the height of sturbborness (and, I would add, stupidity).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 20, 2018, 10:43:58 PM
Fair enough. At some point, however, Babcock has to realize that it isnt the teams effort thats deficient but the system - his system - itself. There is a plethora of evidence to reinforce that conclusion.

To insist on playing in a way that is demonstrably unsuitable to the team as currently constructed - particularly when there are clear viable alternatives to the current system - is the height of sturbborness (and, I would add, stupidity).

This system is the same one that they used in 2015-16 to win the Auston Matthews sweepstakes (and do pretty well in team CF%), as well as the same system used to get into 6 games of the playoffs last season. The major change has been other teams preparing differently against the Leafs (no longer an afterthought, or backup goalie night), and our players' general inability to adjust consistently.

Nothing major has changed other than some players being held to higher standards now for their play away from the puck. Yes, that naturally curtails their offense for now, until they figure out how to do both (which they will). There's a process to playing that Babcock believes leads to winning and that's what these decisions are in service of: sticking with the process. Play the right way and Babcock gives you the minutes and over the long run, that player should start seeing results. You can hear these same platitudes in the response of the players to some of the recent losses as they focus on the consistency and cleaning up mistakes, rather than just bemoaning that they're not scoring.

As for overplaying some vets with down years, yeah, that's been my gripe with them since 2015, but I understand the principle they're going for. There are no gifts in the lineup for the younger players, so they have to prove beyond doubt they belong regardless of their waiver exemption.

Some of the vets are enjoying these gifted roster spots by virtue of consistently being good role models who (once upon a time) could produce, even though they lack the talent. Other than Komarov (and sort of Hyman), they're at the fringes of the lineup and wouldn't be a huge net difference to the fortunes of the team if replaced by the maybe better Marlie while our main horses are still technically foals. I would much rather have a Leivo and Kapanen and Johnsson in the lineup getting reps and developing their games at the NHL level, but I also don't mind some of them getting key minutes in the AHL and rounding out their games to suit potential roles on the Leafs (e.g. Kapanen learning PK).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 20, 2018, 10:50:47 PM
Basically, trying to watch the game through "Babcock's eyes" is helping me have fewer cardiac events this season. I appreciate a coach that never gets too high on the wins and never too low on the losses. He sounds like he's old school and archaic about the way he sees the game, but it demonstrates a strong understanding of PDO effects.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: BrownRolo on January 21, 2018, 03:54:16 AM
I'd be fine if he re-signed something like a 3 year, 4.5 million deal.

Oh Jesus please tell me you don't mean per year...

Definitely 1.5 mil per year.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: BrownRolo on January 21, 2018, 03:58:03 AM
I'd be fine if he re-signed something like a 3 year, 4.5 million deal.

Oh Jesus please tell me you don't mean per year...

Right now the Leafs have Leivo, Soshnikov, and Kapanen who could easily slit into the lineup.   That ignores free agency and further development from Andreas Johnson.   I think Uncle Leo needs to find a new home next year.

Would he be ok on the 4th line, sure.   Thats what happens when you sign Matt Martin to. Multi-year contract though.

Kapanen is a 3rd line+ player. I don't want him wasting away on the 4th line.

Leivo is a meh player but he isn't a PK specialist like Leo. He is more of a PP or 3rd liner.

Soshnikov looked awesome when he first came up but since his concussion I don't know. He isn't the same.

If they sign Leo as a strictly 4th line player and PK for the amount I said it would be totally worth it. But does Babcock play him 4th line? Doubt it.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Bullfrog on January 21, 2018, 11:05:07 AM
Basically, trying to watch the game through "Babcock's eyes" is helping me have fewer cardiac events this season. I appreciate a coach that never gets too high on the wins and never too low on the losses. He sounds like he's old school and archaic about the way he sees the game, but it demonstrates a strong understanding of PDO effects.

I appreciate what you're doing, but that certainly doesn't make him immune to deserving criticism. Without doubt, there's a method to his apparent madness. However, I personally don't see it as entirely consistent with some of his previous messages, particularly the ones about merit-based ice time.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on January 21, 2018, 11:14:55 AM
All we need is a 7 game win streak and all this will be in the rear view mirror, the fact that so many gaffes have been made in the last 5 games and we still came up with at least 1 point is a testament to what this team is capable of.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 21, 2018, 01:06:45 PM
Basically, trying to watch the game through "Babcock's eyes" is helping me have fewer cardiac events this season. I appreciate a coach that never gets too high on the wins and never too low on the losses. He sounds like he's old school and archaic about the way he sees the game, but it demonstrates a strong understanding of PDO effects.

I appreciate what you're doing, but that certainly doesn't make him immune to deserving criticism. Without doubt, there's a method to his apparent madness. However, I personally don't see it as entirely consistent with some of his previous messages, particularly the ones about merit-based ice time.

Thats sort of my point. It depends on what warrants merit in his eyes.

At a certain point, the training wheels need to come off and I think well be better for it when Marner and Nylander and Dermott are the go-tos.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on January 21, 2018, 02:29:38 PM
Gauthier has really been playing well lately.  It's amazing to see him take Dominic Moore's job.  I wonder if Moore could be any type of trade piece.  He's good depth I guess.  But the Leafs still have Kapanen waiting in the wings.

I was extremely happy to see the team pull off a late win last night.  It seemed fitting after all the blown leads lately.  Hopefully this is the start of something great.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: skrackle on January 21, 2018, 07:46:49 PM
From my limited vantage point, the two biggest needs of the Leafs are a traditional power forward- someone who can do what Hyman does, but a whole lot better, including a scoring touch. Also, a top pairing defenseman.

How are the Leafs going to get these players? I don't know. I'm working for free here. Nice win last night, though.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on January 21, 2018, 08:21:16 PM
From my limited vantage point, the two biggest needs of the Leafs are a traditional power forward- someone who can do what Hyman does, but a whole lot better, including a scoring touch. Also, a top pairing defenseman.

How are the Leafs going to get these players? I don't know. I'm working for free here. Nice win last night, though.
I think Hyman should be one of the last players the Leafs should replace.  I really like him.  He forechecks well and he works extremely hard.

What the Leafs need is *defense*.  I'm not quite sure why they are playing Polak.  I guess they want protection in the lineup for Matthews.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: skrackle on January 21, 2018, 09:16:52 PM
From my limited vantage point, the two biggest needs of the Leafs are a traditional power forward- someone who can do what Hyman does, but a whole lot better, including a scoring touch. Also, a top pairing defenseman.

How are the Leafs going to get these players? I don't know. I'm working for free here. Nice win last night, though.
I think Hyman should be one of the last players the Leafs should replace.  I really like him.  He forechecks well and he works extremely hard.

What the Leafs need is *defense*.  I'm not quite sure why they are playing Polak.  I guess they want protection in the lineup for Matthews.

I like Hyman. I just think he's more of a 2nd/3rd liner.

I'd love for the Leafs to find a young Bertuzzi/Lucic. Or hey, how about the next Brendan Shanahan or Wendel Clark? A player who could be the real missing piece on a Leafs top line. A disruptive physical force who can take over a game almost by himself.

And yes, defense too, obviously a big need. But, there are some players coming in the system. It's really easy to get impatient. I will say it's easier to be a Leafs fan these days than it was a few years ago, even if the team isn't where you want it to be.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: sickbeast on January 21, 2018, 10:06:57 PM
From my limited vantage point, the two biggest needs of the Leafs are a traditional power forward- someone who can do what Hyman does, but a whole lot better, including a scoring touch. Also, a top pairing defenseman.

How are the Leafs going to get these players? I don't know. I'm working for free here. Nice win last night, though.
I think Hyman should be one of the last players the Leafs should replace.  I really like him.  He forechecks well and he works extremely hard.

What the Leafs need is *defense*.  I'm not quite sure why they are playing Polak.  I guess they want protection in the lineup for Matthews.

I like Hyman. I just think he's more of a 2nd/3rd liner.

I'd love for the Leafs to find a young Bertuzzi/Lucic. Or hey, how about the next Brendan Shanahan or Wendel Clark? A player who could be the real missing piece on a Leafs top line. A disruptive physical force who can take over a game almost by himself.

And yes, defense too, obviously a big need. But, there are some players coming in the system. It's really easy to get impatient. I will say it's easier to be a Leafs fan these days than it was a few years ago, even if the team isn't where you want it to be.
Well their defense will get better with time even if they don't make a trade.  They have their first round pick hopefully coming up to the NHL level next season, and Dermott should also improve, he is young.  We'll see.  I kind of hope they do nothing.  The one move I could live with would be to trade JVR for a good young defenseman with years of control left.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: x.jr.benchwarmer on January 21, 2018, 10:29:50 PM

Quote from: sickbeast link=topic=4599.msg314643#msg314643



[/quote
Well their defense will get better with time even if they don't make a trade.  They have their first round pick hopefully coming up to the NHL level next season, and Dermott should also improve, he is young.  We'll see.  I kind of hope they do nothing.  The one move I could live with would be to trade JVR for a good young defenseman with years of control left.

I certainly agree with a potential JVR trade, assuming of course that the Leafs are able to get a really quality/young defenceman, whose contract might not affect the Leafs plans in the next 2 or 3 years.  Where can they get one?  It is up to Lou to make that assessment I guess.

I just think that JVR is really overrated when it comes to his game.  He doesn't block shots.  (I recall one recent  article indicating that he is one of the poorest shot-blockers in the league but I can't reference it immediately unfortunately).  He is getting slower.  It seems that every time the puck is passed to him on the wing, he is not skating, and all he can do is chip it forward or try to pass it to a faster player.  He has been really invisible some periods.  It was gratifying to see him apparently being benched in the third period of last night's game because he was not skating or hustling well at all, IMHO.

That  new slogan in the Leafs' dressing room about it being a privilege "not a right" to play in the NHL really isn't applicable to Leo or JVR or Polak or Martin because they are playing virtually every game without really producing and not being demoted to the bench or press box.

And with the Shanaplan in place a couple of years ago, and Dubas being hired to augment the stats area of the game, one has to wonder how Babcock's deployment of ice-time is justifiable  (conspiracy analysts notwithstanding) ;).

Finally, a trade for a defenceman should help the Leafs.  But Gudbrandson is not the answer, IMHO.  He was really mediocre with the Panthers.  The fans were not happy with his mistakes in any of the games that I was at.  His agility was so mediocre that a practice that I saw in Florida featured a skating coach a couple of years ago trying to teach him to make a strong turn in skating backwards  (without any appreciable success).   He is not a mobile defenceman and doesn't fit in with the apparent Leafs plans for speed.  (But perhaps there might be a spot for him on a Burke or Noonis team, with their old-school outdated approach).
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 22, 2018, 02:22:15 PM
https://theathletic.com/218789/2018/01/22/bourne-and-wilson-a-conversation-on-the-concept-of-luck-in-hockey/

Quote
kwilson
To what degree is luck or chance discussed inside of NHL organizations at this point?

jtbourne
That would entirely depend on which room in the building you're in. If you stood in the middle of the dressing room and started walking out in any direction, you'd almost certainly be moving closer to places luck is discussed. The research and development team would talk about it a lot, the front office staff would discuss it though maybe not as much coaches still discuss it (though even less still), and the players, well, they like to believe their successes and failures are within their control. If you ring one off the inside of the post on an open look, you weren't unlucky, you missed. So when things aren't going well, it's really hard to say to a player just keep doing the same thing when that thing isn't working.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 22, 2018, 05:34:23 PM

Apparently, Im Jonas Siegel.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: bustaheims on January 22, 2018, 06:34:05 PM
Apparently, Im Jonas Siegel.

Weird. I've met Jonas, and you look nothing like him.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 22, 2018, 07:22:35 PM
Apparently, Im Jonas Siegel.

Weird. I've met Jonas, and you look nothing like him.

I dont have his beard game.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: louisstamos on January 23, 2018, 11:45:35 AM
Looks like the Goat experiment is over...

Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 23, 2018, 11:49:27 AM
Thank god. I know Gauthier still has some believers around here but aside from that one game the other week he hasn't done anything at this level to suggest he's a NHLer to me. And that includes his play last season too. 38.2% CF in 9 games this season. That's just not going to cut it.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 23, 2018, 11:59:44 AM
Thank god. I know Gauthier still has some believers around here but aside from that one game the other week he hasn't done anything at this level to suggest he's a NHLer to me. And that includes his play last season too. 38.2% CF in 9 games this season. That's just not going to cut it.
Will Kapanen actually play or will Moore just draw in for the goat?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Highlander on January 23, 2018, 12:01:32 PM
Thank god. I know Gauthier still has some believers around here but aside from that one game the other week he hasn't done anything at this level to suggest he's a NHLer to me. And that includes his play last season too. 38.2% CF in 9 games this season. That's just not going to cut it.
I think this Goat is cooked.  I like Fredo a lot, showed a lot of courage coming back from his injury but I have to admit...last night he was terrible. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 23, 2018, 12:06:24 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/aVOSkIC.gif)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 23, 2018, 12:14:55 PM
These lines are so good. I'd maayybbee swap Brown and Marner just because the Kadri line is going to get hard-matched but I'm willing to give Mitch the challenge here to see if he can rise to the occasion. Kadri can use someone with a bit more offence in his game to try and get him going too.

It's going to suck if we lose tomorrow and never see them again.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 23, 2018, 12:40:03 PM
I hope our joy is not short lived.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Guilt Trip on January 23, 2018, 12:40:50 PM
In more important news, Rielly has been put on the IR.
As for the lines, I think most of us would put these lines together like this. Leo belongs on the 4th line. Brown adds some much needed defensive help to the Bozak line. Kadri and Marleau get a very talented winger. It's about time...
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 23, 2018, 12:43:57 PM
JvR-Bozak-Brown dont really have a transition driver, so once theyre in their own zone its pretty much stuck.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 23, 2018, 12:47:50 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/aVOSkIC.gif)

It's almost like Babcock read the Athletic article by Mirtle and copied his line combinations just to troll the fans.  By game time tomorrow Martin will be back on the 4th line and Komarov with Kadri.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 23, 2018, 12:49:22 PM
Thank god. I know Gauthier still has some believers around here but aside from that one game the other week he hasn't done anything at this level to suggest he's a NHLer to me. And that includes his play last season too. 38.2% CF in 9 games this season. That's just not going to cut it.

This.  Too slow.  End of story.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 23, 2018, 12:50:14 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/aVOSkIC.gif)

It's almost like Babcock read the Athletic article by Mirtle and copied his line combinations just to troll the fans.  By game time tomorrow Martin will be back on the 4th line and Komarov with Kadri.

Martin has yet to be scratched this year, yes?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 23, 2018, 12:51:46 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/aVOSkIC.gif)

It's almost like Babcock read the Athletic article by Mirtle and copied his line combinations just to troll the fans.  By game time tomorrow Martin will be back on the 4th line and Komarov with Kadri.

Martin has yet to be scratched this year, yes?

He's only played 47 out of 49 games so he was out twice.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 23, 2018, 12:52:29 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/aVOSkIC.gif)

It's almost like Babcock read the Athletic article by Mirtle and copied his line combinations just to troll the fans.  By game time tomorrow Martin will be back on the 4th line and Komarov with Kadri.

Martin has yet to be scratched this year, yes?

He's only played 47 out of 49 games so he was out twice.

OK, thanks.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: Zee on January 23, 2018, 12:54:34 PM
I hope Babcock sticks with those lines and the Leafs win big in the next 2 games.  Give him some recency bias to sway his lineup decisions.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
Post by: herman on January 23, 2018, 12:55:33 PM