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Current System not right for the Players?

Started by Capital Leaf, March 23, 2012, 10:13:04 PM

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Capital Leaf

What is going on?
How can a team that all year never had back to back nights of under 20 shots on net now go 4 games in row with under 20 shots?
In their first 71 games they had only 4 games with under 20 shots...and now they have done that 4 games in row.
During those games they have been out shot 134-62.  The awful folks! 

Anyone concerned about this?  I know Carlyle is a Stanley Cup winning coach but you have to wonder if the system he is using is not right for this group.


Bender

"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

moon111

I think Ron Wilson's system was good enough to make some players look like they were contributers.  I'll even go so far as to say Phil Kessel was scoring, but not leading the team to success.  My hunch, you're going to wind up seeing conflict between Kessel and Carlyle.  Carlyle will be all about the team, not the player.  It's the players who either change or face consequences.

Mike1

What system is right for this group?

Seriously, I wouldnt really put much stock into what happens when a team is basically playing out the string.

skrackle

The run and gun worked the best for the Leafs this year because of good team speed and good finishers in Kessel and Lupul. The Leafs were unable to sustain success with this style because of inconsistent goaltending, and because teams increasingly played a trap game against them.

Burke often speaks of winning in the playoffs by being able to beat run and gun teams, defensive teams, cycling teams etc. The current Leafs are too one dimensional and lack the line up and experience to adjust their game on the fly.

The Leafs are very young, though. They are going to learn other approaches under Carlyle. I hope that they can keep the speed element as a weapon, but also develop a defensive game. If Burke can improve the roster with more size and toughness as well as better goaltending, the Leafs will eventually become a consistent team against all types of opponents.

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

Quote from: skrackle on March 24, 2012, 05:59:17 PM
The run and gun worked the best for the Leafs this year because of good team speed and good finishers in Kessel and Lupul. The Leafs were unable to sustain success with this style because of inconsistent goaltending, and because teams increasingly played a trap game against them.

Burke often speaks of winning in the playoffs by being able to beat run and gun teams, defensive teams, cycling teams etc. The current Leafs are too one dimensional and lack the line up and experience to adjust their game on the fly.

The Leafs are very young, though. They are going to learn other approaches under Carlyle. I hope that they can keep the speed element as a weapon, but also develop a defensive game. If Burke can improve the roster with more size and toughness as well as better goaltending, the Leafs will eventually become a consistent team against all types of opponents.

That's an optimistic but fair analysis.  Better goaltending and better team D are the 2 top priorities.

cw

Quote from: skrackle on March 24, 2012, 05:59:17 PM
The run and gun worked the best for the Leafs this year because of good team speed and good finishers in Kessel and Lupul. The Leafs were unable to sustain success with this style because of inconsistent goaltending, and because teams increasingly played a trap game against them.

Burke often speaks of winning in the playoffs by being able to beat run and gun teams, defensive teams, cycling teams etc. The current Leafs are too one dimensional and lack the line up and experience to adjust their game on the fly.

The Leafs are very young, though. They are going to learn other approaches under Carlyle. I hope that they can keep the speed element as a weapon, but also develop a defensive game. If Burke can improve the roster with more size and toughness as well as better goaltending, the Leafs will eventually become a consistent team against all types of opponents.

Good post. I agree.

I looked at non special teams goals the 22 games before last night (the start of their losing streak) and the 22 games before that. I counted short handed and shootout goals in the figures below because there was no need to look more closely at even strength goals for vs even strength goals against:

So close to even strength goals for vs even strength goals against:
Most recent 22 games: 36 goals for  70 goals against
Prior 22 games:           57 goals for  47 goals against

The PP was around 17.x% in both sets of 22 games and the PK 81.5% recently vs 83.5% in the prior 22 games (not a lot of difference on the PK). In other words, during their collapse, they got clobbered at even strength while executing respectably on special teams.

Statistically, to me, that supports much of what you said in your first paragraph. We saw some telling signs in the early games this season against the Bruins & the Panthers that if teams clogged the neutral zone to squash a quick counter attack by the Leafs and attacked the Leafs D down low, the Leafs were close to helpless to combat that. We saw the Sens execute that in some games and the rest of the league caught on.

More or less, I think the style of play they attempted suited the collective skills this group had. It relied on getting goaltending version Reimer '10-11 and they obviously didn't get that. And I think their collection of dmen are collectively too inexperienced, not well rounded enough or simply not good enough. I think Gardiner, Schenn & Franson will improve with experience.

The other notable thing when I looked at those stats was the stretch where they didn't allow a PK goal against. During that time, they averaged 1.6 PKs per game - a dramatic drop from the 4 Pks per game in the  stretch of games before that.

So Wilson deserves some credit for getting them to play more disciplined to avoid the PK/goaltending weakness. I still feel this was Wilson best coaching season in Toronto. I was never a giant fan of his but he really tried a bunch of stuff this season and got some results. Most said they needed good goaltending to make the playoffs this season and they simply didn't get it.

Carlyle isn't stupid. He knows what he's got in talent. There's often a performance lull when there's a coaching change during midseason. 

I'm encouraged that he isn't just working on the defensive zone - he's working on all the turnovers in the offensive zone that are contributing to their defensive problems. Even waterbugs can be better defensively in that way  - even if they can't win many puck battles. But while they make the transition to improve that, to answer the top post, the offence will suffer and may never be quite as productive offensively but the hope is that they'll allow fewer goals than the reduction in scoring.

This summer, hopefully, the can make some personnel changes to improve their toughness, winning puck battles, goaltending & their D.

Damian

Quote from: skrackle on March 24, 2012, 05:59:17 PM
The run and gun worked the best for the Leafs this year because of good team speed and good finishers in Kessel and Lupul. The Leafs were unable to sustain success with this style because of inconsistent goaltending, and because teams increasingly played a trap game against them.

Burke often speaks of winning in the playoffs by being able to beat run and gun teams, defensive teams, cycling teams etc. The current Leafs are too one dimensional and lack the line up and experience to adjust their game on the fly.

The Leafs are very young, though. They are going to learn other approaches under Carlyle. I hope that they can keep the speed element as a weapon, but also develop a defensive game. If Burke can improve the roster with more size and toughness as well as better goaltending, the Leafs will eventually become a consistent team against all types of opponents.

Agreed.... The saddest part is we have the priciest D corps in the game... no?

cw

Quote from: Damian on March 25, 2012, 09:46:11 AM
The saddest part is we have the priciest D corps in the game... no?

I believe that was the case when I checked earlier this season. Things may have changed with trades, etc but if they're not the top paid dman group, their very close to the top.

What's even sadder is that all the overpaid guys are under contract for two more seasons after this (along with Tucker's buyout for two more years).
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=4
and three of them have limited no trade clauses (Schenn's doesn't kick in for a while) while the other, Phaneuf, is virtually untradeable at his current price.

Offensively, they're not a bad group but the price performance defensively is probably the worst in the league and per the above, difficult or painful to fix anytime soon.

Our best hope might be Carlyle to see if he can resurrect Komisarek or improve Phaneuf defensively.  Schenn should improve with experience. Liles is WYSIWYG. Or Burke pulls off a miracle deal.

Optimus Reimer

The major difference between the good teams and the not so good teams that I see is that against a good team, the players are agressive towards the puck carrier.  The not so good teams, like the Leafs allow opposing teams to move the puck, and actually back away from the puck carrier, giving that player the space and time to set up a play.  The not so good teams, chase the puck and the puck carrier and easily get caught out of position.  Leaf players back off from the puck carrier instead of forechecking, forcing the player to make a bad pass, a bad shot or give the puck away.  Teams like Vancouver, Boston, Philly, Chicago, Detroit, as soon as a player on the other team gets the puck, there's a player on him right away.   

Potvin29

The people who are big on advanced stats love possession numbers, and just read a tweet saying that Anaheim's possession numbers skyrocketed when Carlyle left, and the Leafs plummeted when he took over here.

Apparently possession numbers are a big deal to advanced hockey stats?

Optimus Reimer

The Leafs lack toughness, agressiveness, defensive capability and a coach suitable to the type of players on the team.  Either bring in a couple of players who have grit, or bring in a coach who has an 'edge' and will instill that character into the Leaf players.  Then develop a system based on defensive responsibility that will result in better defensive play which combined with the team speed will result in offensive breakouts.