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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 02:40:35 PM

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bustaheims

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

Over no one? Absolutely. Over the potential assets in return as part of a trade/players brought in using the free cap space? That's more complicated and less clear cut.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

cw

Quote from: herman on June 18, 2024, 09:06:25 PM
Quote from: cw on June 18, 2024, 08:29:55 PM
Quote from: herman on June 18, 2024, 03:28:31 PMI believe Marner would prefer to stay. I also believe he believes he won't get what he and his camp think he's worth, and he is open to pursuing it elsewhere, hence the loveless "Marner will fulfil his contractual obligation" position.

You are definitely entitled to your opinion.
It is not something I would bet on at this point.
The way Treliving has handled things, the odds of it have gone up.
I think it is more prudent to let the decision maker go through the process and see if that is how it turns out.

Quote from: herman on June 18, 2024, 03:28:31 PMEverything ever said to the media in this industry is for the purpose of posturing. That's how negotiations work when there is public interest.

Marner did say on his exit press scrum that he wants to stay and talks could get underway (paraphrased).
That is the only direct quote of Marner or Ferris that I can recall.

In terms of negotiations, when Treliving floated looking at all the options - including trading Marner, the negotiations Marner was receptive to in May appear to have been shutdown and he apparently is resolved to start the season without a contract in a Leafs jersey.

I do not see that as posturing. It's basically saying "We're not negotiating a trade with you. We have a no move clause. Screw off until after the season starts." (at which point, they all know it is really tough to trade a $10.9 mil cap hit and remain competitive for the playoffs - if one were able to get Marner's blessing & pull that off within a limited number of destinations).

In other words, "We're heading towards the UFA market. If you want in on it early, play nice in the media. Otherwise, you won't have anything to worry about with respect to Marner in July 2025 ... he'll be gone for nothing."

There's no posturing over terms or dollars. They're just enforcing the signed contract and will entertain offers down the road.

Declaring you will not engage in negotiations is posturing for bargaining position.

It is not posturing for a bargaining position.
Their position is already set by the current contract he bargained years ago.
He has a no movement clause.
Apparently, his agent has said there will be no discussions before the season starts and he'll be starting the season in Toronto.
That vaporized any notion Treliving had for trading Marner this summer which Treliving claimed was an option he might consider.
So there is no trade to bargain. There's no contract to bargain this summer.
It is a flat out no. Ain't happening.
And it relates heavily to his current contract which was bargained and signed years ago.
They are forcing it to be upheld: NO MOVEMENT.
That isn't posturing. It is them exercising their contractual right and nuking any notion of trade discussions. There is nothing to posture for or bargain until after the season starts. Marner's holding all the cards. That act makes it virtually impossible for them to figure out any trade. That is not bargaining. It is a fact of life with this contract. Marner exercised that right.

On July 1, 2025, Marner, a top 10 NHL scorer, is a UFA.
Sometime later this season, it will be "Show me the money!" time.
The only real posture going on will be the one his agent physically takes while sitting at his desk reading the emailed offer(s).
This is not complicated.
The suitors for Marner's future services has to come to them and sell them on why he should sign with them.
All they have to do is listen and make a decision.
No posturing required.

Bullfrog

Agreed it's not clear-cut, but I don't think it's that controversial to say having one of the best players in the league on your team will help the team be successful.

I'd take one Marner over two Bertuzzis.


Concerning success (addressing a previous post), it seems to be forgotten that the team lost in overtime in game 7. Had they scored one more goal, who knows how far they could have gone? If Marner gets traded for several lesser players and the team goes on to the 3rd round; it wouldn't necessarily be an accurate statement that they made it there _because_ of the trade.

cw

Quote from: bustaheims on June 19, 2024, 10:16:05 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

Over no one? Absolutely. Over the potential assets in return as part of a trade/players brought in using the free cap space? That's more complicated and less clear cut.

Marner has to approve that. Why should he?
He wants to stay in Toronto.
An 8 year contract means he'll probably be around longer than Treliving.

"Mitch, we want to dump you but we'd like to get a bunch back when we do. You could go there for nothing - no strings attached on July 1 and be a big lift to your future team. But we thought you wouldn't mind weakening your future team by leaving now. It would help us get some picks/prospects/players for you since we don't value you that much anymore and we don't want you to leave for nothing because it would look bad on Leafs management. So what do you think?"

That's kind of what they're trying to sell him, right?
Are his agent and Marner that stupid that they won't see that?

Part of the reason Sundin declined his trade is that it would hurt his current team's playoff prospects. Marner apparently is very popular among his teammates. It is tough enough to trade a $10.9 mil player during the season due to the cap. To be limited to whatever destinations Marner would come up with and the media circus also diminish the plausible return. How could the Leafs pull off such a deal and be a more competitive club immediately? Mike Milbury & Doug Risebrough retired years ago.

cabber24

Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 10:58:46 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on June 19, 2024, 10:16:05 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

Over no one? Absolutely. Over the potential assets in return as part of a trade/players brought in using the free cap space? That's more complicated and less clear cut.

Marner has to approve that. Why should he?
He wants to stay in Toronto.
An 8 year contract means he'll probably be around longer than Treliving.

"Mitch, we want to dump you but we'd like to get a bunch back when we do. You could go there for nothing - no strings attached on July 1 and be a big lift to your future team. But we thought you wouldn't mind weakening your future team by leaving now. It would help us get some picks/prospects/players for you since we don't value you that much anymore and we don't want you to leave for nothing because it would look bad on Leafs management. So what do you think?"

That's kind of what they're trying to sell him, right?
Are his agent and Marner that stupid that they won't see that?

Part of the reason Sundin declined his trade is that it would hurt his current team's playoff prospects. Marner apparently is very popular among his teammates. It is tough enough to trade a $10.9 mil player during the season due to the cap. To be limited to whatever destinations Marner would come up with and the media circus also diminish the plausible return. How could the Leafs pull off such a deal and be a more competitive club immediately? Mike Milbury & Doug Risebrough retired years ago.
Everyone knows he has to waive his NTC to be moved. It comes down to, do you want to resign him at $12.5-13.5? I would not be willing to sign him this summer. I would let teams know to send through their offers and if I liked one I would approach Mitch. If I don't get a reasonable offer I would not discuss any contract extensions until post-playoffs. At which time, I probably won't sign him because the Leafs went out early and I want to spend his cap elsewhere.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

Joe

Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 09:03:09 AMunless Woll turns into the second coming of Turk Broda.

I'd be happy with him turning into the second coming of Damian Rhodes at this point.

Bender

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

That's great that you think the "narrative" should stop, but I happen to think it's by far the worst outcome from a team perspective if he just walks. Life moves on, and the Leafs are a worse team and I don't think having the cap space is worth both not having Marner and not having assets come back from a Marner trade.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Bender

Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 09:36:12 AM
Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 09:03:09 AM
Quote from: cw on June 18, 2024, 08:39:57 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 18, 2024, 04:00:38 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 18, 2024, 03:20:29 PMOnly one more year of Tavares's $11M cap hit though. So that percentage will drop.

Keep Marner and figure out how/if to retain Tavares next year.
I put the math above it's still too much of a percentage of the cap with the core's raises and a Tavares drop.

When Tavares contract drops off, if they've re-signed Marner for Nylander-esque dollars, I don't think they're that much out of alignment with other contenders. Because all three deals are recent, there will be some sawtooth effect where they'll be higher in the near term and lower as the contracts age and other team have to sign their stars.

To state simply: I wonder about going from core 4 to core 2. If not Marner, where is his core 3 replacement coming from? It sure gives me some pause.

Well that's exactly it. Him walking for nothing is a disaster scenario and one that should obviously be avoided, but I also think a long protracted battle for $13M on term is going to alienate a lot of this fanbase and I think rightfully so after what we've witnessed since 2016 and may not move them any closer to a contender. Even once Tavares comes down/off the books we don't really have any other pieces to properly augment the roster, so while it's nice to have a 95pt regular season winger I think if none of the core 4 can be traded we will still be in groundhog day unless Woll turns into the second coming of Turk Broda.

None of the core 4 can be traded without their approval as they all have NMCs.
Both Marner & Tavares have responded directly or indirectly that a trade isn't happening.
Pretty safe bet Matthews isn't going anywhere.
Nylander just signed his 8 year deal to stay in Toronto ...
The chances of a trade happening with the core 4 are very, very slim

It won't be a long protracted battle.
"Show me the money" Simple.
If they don't ante up, he'll have 31 other teams to consider July 1, 2025.
It is not a difficult concept. Nor hard to figure out.
He'll probably come in south of Matthews and north of Nylander.
The Leafs don't have to do that deal. I'm sure some team that Marner likes will.
Marner's agent knows all that. This is not that hard.

"alienate a lot of this fanbase" that's too bad.
A bunch of them will 'come to their senses' when faced with losing him for nothing - just like Treliving will.
You can't operate a team motivated by merely appeasing the fanbase with contracts you sign. Collectively, in this situation, I'm not sure the fanbase has been very well informed or has a very good grasp of the situation. A lot of misinformation and misleading stuff.
Until this is resolved, for his safety, Marner's camp will limit or eliminate his direct exposure to alienated fans.

There were a lot of alienated fans when Sundin declined being traded.
When they retired his jersey or put him in the HHoF, I didn't notice them.

There's so much I disagree with in this post, but let me ask you a question.

$13M/8yrs Full NMC for Marner or he walks. Would you sign him?
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

cw

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 10:30:18 AMAgreed it's not clear-cut, but I don't think it's that controversial to say having one of the best players in the league on your team will help the team be successful.

I'd take one Marner over two Bertuzzis.


Concerning success (addressing a previous post), it seems to be forgotten that the team lost in overtime in game 7. Had they scored one more goal, who knows how far they could have gone? If Marner gets traded for several lesser players and the team goes on to the 3rd round; it wouldn't necessarily be an accurate statement that they made it there _because_ of the trade.

In 2022-23, they were a better team - regarded as one of the top 6 in the league. Tied with Cup winner-to-be Vegas in the standing with .677 win%. They did that with the Core 4.

If they improve the goaltending by adding a goalie like Brossoit or Stolarz (no way they're as bad as Samsonov .890% 3.13GAA) and add two credible top 4 RH dmen, they're a better, more talent ballanced team. Probably like 2022-23 - a top 6 contender with the core 4. I doubt they'll win a Cup but they could make some noise.
The following season, they'll have more cap space to do more/improve - if Marner is re-signed.
If he isn't re-signed, for me, it gets more questionable.

cw

Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 11:34:46 AM
Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 09:36:12 AM
Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 09:03:09 AM
Quote from: cw on June 18, 2024, 08:39:57 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 18, 2024, 04:00:38 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 18, 2024, 03:20:29 PMOnly one more year of Tavares's $11M cap hit though. So that percentage will drop.

Keep Marner and figure out how/if to retain Tavares next year.
I put the math above it's still too much of a percentage of the cap with the core's raises and a Tavares drop.

When Tavares contract drops off, if they've re-signed Marner for Nylander-esque dollars, I don't think they're that much out of alignment with other contenders. Because all three deals are recent, there will be some sawtooth effect where they'll be higher in the near term and lower as the contracts age and other team have to sign their stars.

To state simply: I wonder about going from core 4 to core 2. If not Marner, where is his core 3 replacement coming from? It sure gives me some pause.

Well that's exactly it. Him walking for nothing is a disaster scenario and one that should obviously be avoided, but I also think a long protracted battle for $13M on term is going to alienate a lot of this fanbase and I think rightfully so after what we've witnessed since 2016 and may not move them any closer to a contender. Even once Tavares comes down/off the books we don't really have any other pieces to properly augment the roster, so while it's nice to have a 95pt regular season winger I think if none of the core 4 can be traded we will still be in groundhog day unless Woll turns into the second coming of Turk Broda.

None of the core 4 can be traded without their approval as they all have NMCs.
Both Marner & Tavares have responded directly or indirectly that a trade isn't happening.
Pretty safe bet Matthews isn't going anywhere.
Nylander just signed his 8 year deal to stay in Toronto ...
The chances of a trade happening with the core 4 are very, very slim

It won't be a long protracted battle.
"Show me the money" Simple.
If they don't ante up, he'll have 31 other teams to consider July 1, 2025.
It is not a difficult concept. Nor hard to figure out.
He'll probably come in south of Matthews and north of Nylander.
The Leafs don't have to do that deal. I'm sure some team that Marner likes will.
Marner's agent knows all that. This is not that hard.

"alienate a lot of this fanbase" that's too bad.
A bunch of them will 'come to their senses' when faced with losing him for nothing - just like Treliving will.
You can't operate a team motivated by merely appeasing the fanbase with contracts you sign. Collectively, in this situation, I'm not sure the fanbase has been very well informed or has a very good grasp of the situation. A lot of misinformation and misleading stuff.
Until this is resolved, for his safety, Marner's camp will limit or eliminate his direct exposure to alienated fans.

There were a lot of alienated fans when Sundin declined being traded.
When they retired his jersey or put him in the HHoF, I didn't notice them.

There's so much I disagree with in this post, but let me ask you a question.

$13M/8yrs Full NMC for Marner or he walks. Would you sign him?

That depends on what the UFA market looks like for July 2025 in the spring of 2025.

I regard their 'window' with Matthews as the next four seasons. After that, if he still hasn't won here, why should he hang around?

If Marner looks to be headed out the door with no return and the Leafs feel the UFA market can't replace him (which I think is likely), then I would re-sign him because they've only got 3 more shots and no time to replace him.
$13 Mil seems steep. He'll be north of Nylander. I think he's a better player because he plays a 200-foot game. But I'm not sure it will be that high/as close to Matthews.
If the Leafs don't ante up, he'll get it or something very close on the open market and be gone quickly in early July 2025.
If the Leafs stop the stupid media chatter that they'd fed and play nice, they could get a home town discount. I believe him when he says that he wants to play in Toronto.

We have 4 years to win it with Matthews. That should guide a lot of their thinking on roster and contract decisions.

cw

Quote from: cabber24 on June 19, 2024, 11:20:12 AM
Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 10:58:46 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on June 19, 2024, 10:16:05 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

Over no one? Absolutely. Over the potential assets in return as part of a trade/players brought in using the free cap space? That's more complicated and less clear cut.

Marner has to approve that. Why should he?
He wants to stay in Toronto.
An 8 year contract means he'll probably be around longer than Treliving.

"Mitch, we want to dump you but we'd like to get a bunch back when we do. You could go there for nothing - no strings attached on July 1 and be a big lift to your future team. But we thought you wouldn't mind weakening your future team by leaving now. It would help us get some picks/prospects/players for you since we don't value you that much anymore and we don't want you to leave for nothing because it would look bad on Leafs management. So what do you think?"

That's kind of what they're trying to sell him, right?
Are his agent and Marner that stupid that they won't see that?

Part of the reason Sundin declined his trade is that it would hurt his current team's playoff prospects. Marner apparently is very popular among his teammates. It is tough enough to trade a $10.9 mil player during the season due to the cap. To be limited to whatever destinations Marner would come up with and the media circus also diminish the plausible return. How could the Leafs pull off such a deal and be a more competitive club immediately? Mike Milbury & Doug Risebrough retired years ago.
Everyone knows he has to waive his NTC to be moved. It comes down to, do you want to resign him at $12.5-13.5? I would not be willing to sign him this summer. I would let teams know to send through their offers and if I liked one I would approach Mitch. If I don't get a reasonable offer I would not discuss any contract extensions until post-playoffs. At which time, I probably won't sign him because the Leafs went out early and I want to spend his cap elsewhere.

Marner camp has already said they're not talking about his contract until after the season starts.
They know the chances of moving a $10.9 mil cap hit once rosters are set is very tough. They also know such a move would likely be very discouraging because they could not get enough talent return to maintain their playoff aspirations for 2024-25.

Leafs get first crack at "Show me the money!" sometime before July 1st.
If they fall short, he's a UFA.

If he goes and Tavares either goes or is effectively gone due to age, they're down to a core 2. And only one of them plays 2 ways. They'll have lots of cap space. But if it is like last year's UFA market, it could be ugly.

L K

Quote from: bustaheims on June 19, 2024, 10:16:05 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

Over no one? Absolutely. Over the potential assets in return as part of a trade/players brought in using the free cap space? That's more complicated and less clear cut.

The Leafs COULD have better depth moving on from Marner, but I'm going to counter that if the return is simply his cap space.  Losing Marner at 10.9 buys you two Tyler Bertuzzi's at 5.5M.   If you replace Marner with a second Bertuzzi (not playing with Matthews) I'm going to counter that the Leafs probably still lose to Boston.  Bertuzzi wasn't bad by any means but I really didn't see a guy who was giving Boston fits...he just kept getting into shoving matches with Marchand all series.

The value in moving on from Marner would be in trading him this year...taking a talent step backwards because you can't replace a 90+ point player in free agency very often but the assets you get in a trade PLUS the 11M in cap space makes the long term process better.  If we are just walking Marner to free agency we lose an elite player for nothing and free agency purchase pricing devalues that 11M hole in the cap.

Joe

Can I just crowbar in how much I hate the NHL's stupid salary cap. I know we're 20 years into it but I've not gotten use to it and still hate it.

Creating a league where fans turn on players because of their salary is just... stupid.

cabber24

Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 11:34:46 AM
Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 09:36:12 AM
Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 09:03:09 AM
Quote from: cw on June 18, 2024, 08:39:57 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 18, 2024, 04:00:38 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 18, 2024, 03:20:29 PMOnly one more year of Tavares's $11M cap hit though. So that percentage will drop.

Keep Marner and figure out how/if to retain Tavares next year.
I put the math above it's still too much of a percentage of the cap with the core's raises and a Tavares drop.

When Tavares contract drops off, if they've re-signed Marner for Nylander-esque dollars, I don't think they're that much out of alignment with other contenders. Because all three deals are recent, there will be some sawtooth effect where they'll be higher in the near term and lower as the contracts age and other team have to sign their stars.

To state simply: I wonder about going from core 4 to core 2. If not Marner, where is his core 3 replacement coming from? It sure gives me some pause.

Well that's exactly it. Him walking for nothing is a disaster scenario and one that should obviously be avoided, but I also think a long protracted battle for $13M on term is going to alienate a lot of this fanbase and I think rightfully so after what we've witnessed since 2016 and may not move them any closer to a contender. Even once Tavares comes down/off the books we don't really have any other pieces to properly augment the roster, so while it's nice to have a 95pt regular season winger I think if none of the core 4 can be traded we will still be in groundhog day unless Woll turns into the second coming of Turk Broda.

None of the core 4 can be traded without their approval as they all have NMCs.
Both Marner & Tavares have responded directly or indirectly that a trade isn't happening.
Pretty safe bet Matthews isn't going anywhere.
Nylander just signed his 8 year deal to stay in Toronto ...
The chances of a trade happening with the core 4 are very, very slim

It won't be a long protracted battle.
"Show me the money" Simple.
If they don't ante up, he'll have 31 other teams to consider July 1, 2025.
It is not a difficult concept. Nor hard to figure out.
He'll probably come in south of Matthews and north of Nylander.
The Leafs don't have to do that deal. I'm sure some team that Marner likes will.
Marner's agent knows all that. This is not that hard.

"alienate a lot of this fanbase" that's too bad.
A bunch of them will 'come to their senses' when faced with losing him for nothing - just like Treliving will.
You can't operate a team motivated by merely appeasing the fanbase with contracts you sign. Collectively, in this situation, I'm not sure the fanbase has been very well informed or has a very good grasp of the situation. A lot of misinformation and misleading stuff.
Until this is resolved, for his safety, Marner's camp will limit or eliminate his direct exposure to alienated fans.

There were a lot of alienated fans when Sundin declined being traded.
When they retired his jersey or put him in the HHoF, I didn't notice them.

There's so much I disagree with in this post, but let me ask you a question.

$13M/8yrs Full NMC for Marner or he walks. Would you sign him?
If he was UFA July 1st, 2024 I would not sign him.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

cw

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 10:30:18 AMI'd take one Marner over two Bertuzzis.

Me too. In a heartbeat.

Bertuzzi's agent says there's been 'productive talks' with Maple Leafs

I don't understand why. He is well down my priority list.