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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 02:40:35 PM

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cabber24

Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

Joe

Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he's be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.

herman

Marner would not take 12.5M x 8.

Marner will open his asking price at 15M and probably let it come down to ~14M+ x 8 years because Matthews got a bit over 15% of the 88M cap, and it's likely a 93M cap when Marner's next contract kicks in.

Is anyone here good with that?
#27 #TeamFasstholes

cabber24

Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 12:36:34 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he's be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

cabber24

Quote from: herman on June 12, 2024, 12:54:09 PMMarner would not take 12.5M x 8.

Marner will open his asking price at 15M and probably let it come down to ~14M+ x 8 years because Matthews got a bit over 15% of the 88M cap, and it's likely a 93M cap when Marner's next contract kicks in.

Is anyone here good with that?
Your post seems comical but probably not far off reality.

NO, I am not good with that.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

herman

#515
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 01:00:31 PM
Quote from: herman on June 12, 2024, 12:54:09 PMMarner would not take 12.5M x 8.

Marner will open his asking price at 15M and probably let it come down to ~14M+ x 8 years because Matthews got a bit over 15% of the 88M cap, and it's likely a 93M cap when Marner's next contract kicks in.

Is anyone here good with that?
Your post seems comical but probably not far off reality.

NO, I am not good with that.

It's not comedy. The tactic Ferris used in the last negotiation was that Matthews was the only comparable and basically just said "give Mitch the Matthews deal" for the whole offseason before conceding like half a mil to get a bit more term. My read on the negotiation was that Dubas was trying to keep it to start with 9 and Ferris was saying 11+ the whole way until Marner said do something now, and Shanahan (I theorize) stepped in to push it to 10.9. You could see how pissed Dubas was at that presser lol

#27 #TeamFasstholes

Peter D.

Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

He's going to be looking for a raise to his $10.903 million he earns now.  He doesn't deserve to be paid more than Matthews, nor do I think will do so based on principle, but he will be seeking to make more than Nylander.  And with salaries only going to be escalating now that the cap is on the upswing again, he's going to be the benefactor of such along with all the upcoming free agents in the coming years.

I think that number is a good middle ground and clean and easy to get done. 

Whether we think he is worth that much is a different topic altogether.  But I'd much rather pay him that money than try and chisel him to a number he won't agree to where we risk losing him.  Talents like him are not easy to find and/or replace.

Joe

Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:59:07 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 12:36:34 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he's be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he'd be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

 

OldTimeHockey

Quote from: Bender on June 11, 2024, 03:01:52 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 11, 2024, 01:48:37 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 11, 2024, 01:15:15 PM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 11, 2024, 10:55:38 AMSo I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.

Maybe I'm missing something but who did the leafs walk to free agency that led them to 'where they are now'?

Obviously it's not the reason, there's lots of reasons why the Leafs are where they are, but I don't buy the whole own rental idea and that we should hang on to expiring contracts (in this case Marner) or we're not serious about winning. Just off the top of my head we've walked Bozak, JVR, Barrie, Kerfoot etc.

I don't understand how worrying about assets walking for nothing means you aren't serious about winning. Is that how people feel if we don't use all our draft capital for rentals too?

*Edit I should probably rephrase my stance as the Leafs are where they are in large part due to poor asset management, of which walking guys to free agency is a subsection of that.

I typed a response to your original "it's the media's fault" response but walked away due to work getting in the way.

I didn't say that the media is at fault for where the Leafs are right now. I said the way this has eaten up all the talk in newspapers, broadcasts, podcasts and subsequently the workplaces and pubs is the media driving the conversation. I realize that it's an item that has to be dealt with but Marner doesn't become such a bum if the media(and herman) don't drive it down the throats of everyone at home.

In regards to the poor asset management problem, I was going to come back with "what assets walked for nothing", but that's already been asked. Like them, I forgot about JVR and Bozak..and also Barrie and Kerfoot. While I agree with you that you have to manage your assets and get something for them when you see they're going to walk for nothing, I also think you have to examine where those players fit in your overall structure and where your team is at in terms of legitimately competing to win in the playoffs. Despite their success or lack of success, the Leafs have repeatedly gone into the playoffs as competitive teams. Hindsight says their choices didn't work out, but I don't think trading Kerfoot for a 3rd rounder would have helped maximize that success. Now, Marner would bring in a much larger prize, so in that sense, it's definitely something you have to look at. But, he would also create a much bigger hole than any of the above assets, so that has to weigh heavily on your decision.

Rob

I mean, it's one thing to let your UFA's walk, it's quite another to just keep dealing picks and prospects for rentals.  That is really what has messed up this team.  No cheap talent.  They have to keep going to the UFA market, overpaying for marginal talent. 

Sure, it gets to the point where you may not be able to keep all your homegrown talent.  That is when you take advantage of dealing from a position of strength. Dealing those players you can't afford for what you really need, or for more picks. 

This team is bereft of any prospects that look like a sure NHL'ers except for Cowan.  Nothing on defense, and nothing in goal.  Hildeby is still a big question mark. 

cabber24

Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 01:45:59 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:59:07 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 12:36:34 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he's be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he'd be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

 
Here is cap forecast from Sep 2022, they were correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/09/27/report--nhl-salary-cap-projected-to-make-4-million-jump-for-2024-25-season/

I do not understand why the Leafs continue to pay their stars so high. Is McKinnion an idiot or do the Leafs overpay? I think the Leafs overpay.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

Rob

Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 02:46:13 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 01:45:59 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:59:07 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 12:36:34 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he's be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he'd be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

 
Here is cap forecast from Sep 2022, they were correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/09/27/report--nhl-salary-cap-projected-to-make-4-million-jump-for-2024-25-season/

I do not understand why the Leafs continue to pay their stars so high. Is McKinnion an idiot or do the Leafs overpay? I think the Leafs overpay.

Do you think some team would have given Matthews more than $13.25m?  I think some other team would have. 

cabber24

Quote from: Rob on June 12, 2024, 02:52:45 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 02:46:13 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 01:45:59 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:59:07 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 12, 2024, 12:36:34 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on June 12, 2024, 12:24:37 PM
Quote from: Peter D. on June 12, 2024, 11:54:18 AM
Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he's be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he'd be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

 
Here is cap forecast from Sep 2022, they were correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/09/27/report--nhl-salary-cap-projected-to-make-4-million-jump-for-2024-25-season/

I do not understand why the Leafs continue to pay their stars so high. Is McKinnion an idiot or do the Leafs overpay? I think the Leafs overpay.

Do you think some team would have given Matthews more than $13.25m?  I think some other team would have.
Honestly, I don't know why Matthews got the top cap hit on just a 4-year deal. If you're going to pay someone more than anyone else a reasonable term length would be assumed.

Agents to Leafs: "I want more than all my peers". Leafs GM's: "okay".
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

herman

#523
  • A bit of CapFriendly talk
  • No new developments on Mitch Marner, but some discussion about the sensitivities involved; EF thinks Leafs FO doesn't want Marner at his (likely) asking price.
  • EF: Keef was very careful when it came to Marner; curious if that would change under Berube
  • they put Willy on the market and didn't like the offers
  • unless Leafs can sell Marner on the change, EF thinks it goes into next season, as playing with Matthews is his best bet for a pay day
  • Goalies: Markstrom they'd love but would be complicated and other teams are more likely; Brossoit makes sense but would need a solid 3rd. Believes Leafs will try to get the best goalie they can get.
  • Suspects Vegas will be in on Marner
  • UFA targets: multiple Defensemen and Leafs' cap room will make them a 'force' in this market; aiming for 2 big names
  • Bertuzzi/Domi: if they don't sign, it'll be down to term


https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1800595075237367908
QuoteThe Leafs had their eyes on Ferraro and Sharks forward Luke Kunin during the season and it's entirely possible Toronto GM Brad Treliving circles back on both this off-season – but he may have to work fast.
QuoteAs I reported almost a month ago, if the Toronto Maple Leafs approach Mitch Marner about waiving his no-movement clause, he will consider his options. Nothing has changed, aside from a sneaking suspicion I have that the Leafs have an idea where he would consider moving to. Marner wants to stay in Toronto, but if the Leafs don't want him, he'll weigh things out.

https://twitter.com/nhl_watcher/status/1801024559849537584
- directly quoting the text he gets from Darren Ferris
#27 #TeamFasstholes

princedpw

Quote from: herman on June 12, 2024, 03:46:49 PM
  • UFA targets: multiple Defensemen and Leafs' cap room will make them a 'force' in this market; aiming for 2 big names
  • Bertuzzi/Domi: if they don't sign, it'll be down to term
These sources are either bad at math or their "big fish" are not the same as my big fish.  We don't have enough cap space for Domi+Bertuzzi+2 good D+even a bad goalie who can play 50 games (assuming we keep Marner).