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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 02:40:35 PM

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herman

Quote from: IJustLurkHere on June 10, 2024, 08:09:29 PMThat's a generous serving of irony there.

In the hypothetical where we replace Marner's $11M with 2x $5.5 players, that's no guarantee of quality. Last year the leafs spent $5.5M on Tyler Bertuzzi and $5M on TJ Brodie. If that's what the Leafs got for Marner, that does not read as an improvement to me. I am yet to be persuaded that the lure of flexibility isn't the mirage of grass appearing greener on the other side. Who are the 2x$5.5M Dman and Goalie combo who will make us forget about Marner?

Star players and UFAs aren't where we'll find excessive value for money - that would take a Minten or a Cowan turning into an NHLer, Knies emerging as a genuine power scoring threat, or another diamond in the rough Bobby McMann style. But on the level of value we need just to prevent moving backwards, Marner's injury interrupted year delivered 26 goals and 59 assists in 69 games. I think it's self-evident that isn't an easy combination of value to replace.

So here's my unpersuasive declaration: Solid choices with the money that comes from Bertuzzi, Domi, Brodie and Samsonov's expiring contracts is more likely to move the needle in a positive direction for 24-25 and beyond than cutting ties with Marner for a couple of $5.5M rolls of the dice.

a) thanks for engaging and not just lurking!
b) thanks for bringing in details and data to the party
c) glad you caught the irony, but I really didn't want to repeat 2 years of posts :D

The thing a Marner trade can yield that UFA shopping cannot, is the opportunity to pull in a promising prospect outside of the draft, presumably in positions of organizational weakness (C, puck moving RD). Like you said yourself, excess value vs cap hit, and extending the success window more sustainably. Also, not having to deal with a Marner extension negotiation ever again, which I've already stated previously, is a win in and of itself.

Granted this is quite a small needle to thread (which is why I preferred to do it last offseason, but alas here we are). Aside from that, through a combination of the trade return and UFA, the team really needs to bolster centre and defense to drive play.

What Marner brings to the table is either replaceable in aggregate or not what the team feels it needs going forward, and certainly not something they want to pile 13M+ on. The point totals are intriguing, but they don't really tell the complete story, and really should serve as a selling point to the Leafs' advantage. The timing of the cap going up is also quite fortuitous for Marner and also for sign-and-trade opportunities (San Jose would offer 15M easily if they were offering Tavares 13M back in 2018). Other GMs/owners remember the Tkachuk trade and should be salivating for a chance at another prime-aged London Knight alumnus. The Leafs need to not fear Treliving's involvement in that, but actually leverage his experience to their advantage.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

herman

#496
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 10, 2024, 08:55:07 AM11th in points over the last 3 years (7th in ppg), plays PK/PP, selke voting, 12th highest cap hit. 2nd straight season of 101-point pace.

"barely" matches is a thinly veiled insult. His play/value clearly matches his cap hit.

Go ahead and continue to be critical of his play, his fit, whether he or multiple lesser players are better, etc. But can you admit he's an extremely talented, valuable player who earns his cap hit?

We get you don't like him, but your criticism is becoming comical at this point.

I say how talented he is plenty of times. You know full well I'm not one of the people who moralize that he has no effort, or doesn't care, or is soft or whatever; he tries extremely hard*, he loves the team, and actually is pretty good at taking contact and using it to his advantage most of the time.

Unfortunately, his regular season strengths (puck possession, threading seam passes) is exploited in the playoffs and neuters his entire line's ability to be effective. Part of it is coaching a style that requires like 8 precision passes to put the puck on net from a high danger area (finesse/glory), and part of it is when Marner recognizes he has no options and just plays it safe, and part of it is outright losing the puck too easily because of his long stick and comfort zone with the puck directly in front. Marner gets like 55+%** of the puck possession time. It gets very tiring mentally and physically to try to have a team play that way against set playoff defense.

* I also have a theory that the players fans usually believe are always giving full effort, are usually bad skaters, but that's for another time.
** this is just a number I pulled out of my butt, but I, uh, watch the games.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

A Weekend at Bernier's

Quote from: IJustLurkHere on June 10, 2024, 08:09:29 PMSo here's my unpersuasive declaration: Solid choices with the money that comes from Bertuzzi, Domi, Brodie and Samsonov's expiring contracts is more likely to move the needle in a positive direction for 24-25 and beyond than cutting ties with Marner for a couple of $5.5M rolls of the dice.

Very good points, but why have you left this as an either/or situation?  What would the B, D, B & S money AND the Marner  money do?  My rough math suggests that would offer about $28M to spend, plus the potential for impactful players returning in any deal.  I would also say that the Leafs, in the aggregate, would be a better balanced team spending Marner's $11M on Tuevo Teravainen and Chandler Stephenson (give or take, of course).

I don't disagree with all who say trading elite talent is unpalatable, especially when you're trading them from a position of relative weakness.  In fact, I agree with this position outright.  But, for me, the outcomes of keeping Marner are even less appetizing.  Keep him this year and he walks next summer and the only benefit is the $10.9 in cap space.  Sign him for the $12.5+ he will demand and it will ensure - and I'm showing my bias here - the last eight years of playoffs Groundhog Day will continue.

OldTimeHockey

So I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Bender

#499
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 11, 2024, 10:55:38 AMSo I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

MLHS has some decent recaps of Matthews & Nylander's seasons.  No revelations: Both are gamebreakers, Matthews needs to bring it in the playoffs, that's all he has left to prove, and Nylander still cheats for offense.

Joe

Quote from: Bender on June 11, 2024, 01:15:15 PM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 11, 2024, 10:55:38 AMSo I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.

Maybe I'm missing something but who did the leafs walk to free agency that led them to 'where they are now'?

cabber24

If Marner was signed and Nylander was going into his last year I am confident everyone would be discussing trading Nylander right now. "He disappears for games at a time", "he doesn't care", "he is not good defensively"... this would be the dialogue. Cap/core reallocation is the discussion not specifically Marner.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

Joe

Quote from: cabber24 on June 11, 2024, 02:08:15 PMIf Marner was signed and Nylander was going into his last year I am confident everyone would be discussing trading Nylander right now. "He disappears for games at a time", "he doesn't care", "he is not good defensively"... this would be the dialogue. Cap/core reallocation is the discussion not specifically Marner.

I mean this isn't speculation. This discussion was literally happening prior to Nylander signing. Besides, of the 4, up until last season, Nylander was the one that most wanted to punt out of town.

Arn

Quote from: Joe on June 11, 2024, 01:48:37 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 11, 2024, 01:15:15 PM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 11, 2024, 10:55:38 AMSo I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.

Maybe I'm missing something but who did the leafs walk to free agency that led them to 'where they are now'?

I'm guessing this is referring back to JVR and Bozak etc
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

Bender

#505
Quote from: Joe on June 11, 2024, 01:48:37 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 11, 2024, 01:15:15 PM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 11, 2024, 10:55:38 AMSo I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.

Maybe I'm missing something but who did the leafs walk to free agency that led them to 'where they are now'?

Obviously it's not the reason, there's lots of reasons why the Leafs are where they are, but I don't buy the whole own rental idea and that we should hang on to expiring contracts (in this case Marner) or we're not serious about winning. Just off the top of my head we've walked Bozak, JVR, Barrie, Kerfoot etc.

I don't understand how worrying about assets walking for nothing means you aren't serious about winning. Is that how people feel if we don't use all our draft capital for rentals too?

*Edit I should probably rephrase my stance as the Leafs are where they are in large part due to poor asset management, of which walking guys to free agency is a subsection of that.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

herman

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 11, 2024, 01:23:58 PMNylander still cheats for offense

It's something built into the Leafs structure (and most teams do this) called 'pushing the pace' or 'flying the zone'.
https://jhanhky.substack.com/p/how-tor-created-rush-offense-in-game

Standard in Babcock's time with the Leafs was JvR at the opposing blueline waiting for a flip out by Zaitsev or whoever. Usually hidden from the broadcast angles when they focus on the puck carrier on breakouts.

You remember Willy doing it because he tends to make something happen with it.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

Joe

Quote from: Arn on June 11, 2024, 03:00:42 PM
Quote from: Joe on June 11, 2024, 01:48:37 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 11, 2024, 01:15:15 PM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on June 11, 2024, 10:55:38 AMSo I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.

Maybe I'm missing something but who did the leafs walk to free agency that led them to 'where they are now'?

I'm guessing this is referring back to JVR and Bozak etc

Oh wow. I'd forgotten about those guys. I suppose the only existing link you could blame that on is shanahan. Because that predates Dubas.

Joe

Quote from: Bender on June 11, 2024, 03:01:52 PMObviously it's not the reason, there's lots of reasons why the Leafs are where they are, but I don't buy the whole own rental idea and that we should hang on to expiring contracts (in this case Marner) or we're not serious about winning. Just off the top of my head we've walked Bozak, JVR, Barrie, Kerfoot etc.

I don't understand how worrying about assets walking for nothing means you aren't serious about winning. Is that how people feel if we don't use all our draft capital for rentals too?

*Edit I should probably rephrase my stance as the Leafs are where they are in large part due to poor asset management, of which walking guys to free agency is a subsection of that.

I was genuinely asking because I didn't know where you were going with that point.

I'd agree that it's a factor. But I don't think it's a leading one.

If I were to oversimplify this it's that the team got too good too fast and then the subsequent years they were blowing picks on deadline acquisitions, when they should have kept building up through the draft. If you ask me, that's the biggest mistake they made.

Keeping Marner, Matthews nylander and even Tavares could have been sustainable had they not acted like they were a move away from a cup every season.

Peter D.

Quote from: Rob on June 10, 2024, 06:30:46 AM$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.