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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 02:40:35 PM

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herman

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/evaluating-what-everyone-in-the-trade-marner-debate-might-want/

A Justin Bourne analysis of the perceived motivations of the 5 main stakeholders in the Marner situation, and the likeliest outcome given said motivations: Marner plays out the contract and walks in a UFA bidding war.

Everything being said publicly at this time is just posturing to maintain or attempt to increase bargaining power.


Quote from: A Weekend at Bernier's on June 07, 2024, 09:34:45 AMit comes down to swallowing the poison pill now - maybe with a spoonful of sugar - or next year with a cod liver oil chaser

Yes, basically this is what we are left with.

There is a slim opportunity to thread the needle (and screw with a lot of teams' offseasons) by expediting the Marner UFA sweepstakes to July 1, 2024. While that does diminish the Leafs' return, there will be an actual asset return. We can weigh the benefits of more runway for the remodeling vs one more year of service from Marner. Regardless of what they say publicly, I think this is what will happen.

I think the Leafs are at critical mass, without Marner, to make the playoffs. Not enough to win the division outright, mind you, but given some modest return + the additional cap space to buy multiple premier defense options, we could enable a more effective forward group in lines 1-4, and reinforcements in the pipeline at key positions.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

Losing Marner will not make us a better team.  I hope he can get past all this BS and re-sign.

IJustLurkHere

Quote from: A Weekend at Bernier's on June 07, 2024, 09:34:45 AMI just wanted to chime in on the Marner debate: the reason it's such a polarizing topic is that there's really no win for the Leafs here.  As Herman has pointed out - and advocated directly last year at this time - the time to have traded Marner and tried to maximize his value was pre-July 1 2023. 

I think it's polarising because the bolded statement is only true if we've decided the Leafs are better without Marner. I think there are a lot of people who have internalised the "nobody else has as top heavy a salary cap structure as the Leafs" to mean "you can't win this way". While that's a perfectly valid opinion, it's not universal, and if you don't share it, then there is a winning scenario.

Sign Marner to an extension.

herman

Declarations aren't really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we've really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it's self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

Bender

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 08, 2024, 10:24:57 PMLosing Marner will not make us a better team.  I hope he can get past all this BS and re-sign.

Clearly there is debate and discussion as to whether that's true or not. We are in a cap constrained world and everything is a series of trade offs. The team might be better or it might be worse based on a lot of different variables. That's reality.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Zee

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 08, 2024, 10:24:57 PMLosing Marner will not make us a better team.  I hope he can get past all this BS and re-sign.

I don't necessarily agree with this. If they can spend 11 million on 2 other players that make an impact the team could be better. Say a goalie and D? You can't just automatically assume the team is worse without Marner

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

Quote from: herman on June 09, 2024, 11:08:02 AMDeclarations aren't really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we've really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it's self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

cw had the stats but I believe Marner has better numbers overall than Nylander, yes?  Including playoffs.  Maybe I'm wrong about that but if not he deserves to make more than Nylander.

In any event, no, it is not self-evident.  That declaration isn't persuasive.

Bender

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 09, 2024, 06:31:22 PM
Quote from: herman on June 09, 2024, 11:08:02 AMDeclarations aren't really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we've really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it's self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

cw had the stats but I believe Marner has better numbers overall than Nylander, yes?  Including playoffs.  Maybe I'm wrong about that but if not he deserves to make more than Nylander.

In any event, no, it is not self-evident.  That declaration isn't persuasive.

This is how we got into cap hell in the first place. "I want to make more the X player on our team", while I understand it, is probably not the greatest thing to have within you dressing room.

Also just points don't tell the whole story as we know. One of them has scored double the others goals in the playoffs.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

cw

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 09, 2024, 06:31:22 PM
Quote from: herman on June 09, 2024, 11:08:02 AMDeclarations aren't really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we've really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it's self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

cw had the stats but I believe Marner has better numbers overall than Nylander, yes?  Including playoffs.  Maybe I'm wrong about that but if not he deserves to make more than Nylander.

In any event, no, it is not self-evident.  That declaration isn't persuasive.

Marner has significantly better scoring stats in the regular season and playoffs than Nylander. His cap hit is commensurate with others in the NHL's top 20 scoring (Marner is 10th over the last 8 years) Even if one wanted to cherry pick stats to debate Nylanders lesser scoring is more, the debate killer for me is Marner plays in both ends of the ice at a pretty decent level => Selke votes. Nylander doesn't. For me, that overwhelms any cherry picking - it is a significant tie breaker. And it would be another reason why his agent would ask for more $ than Nylander.

I really enjoy watching Nylander. I think we're lucky to have both of them.

Rob

$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

cw

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 09, 2024, 06:31:22 PM
Quote from: herman on June 09, 2024, 11:08:02 AMDeclarations aren't really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we've really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it's self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

cw had the stats but I believe Marner has better numbers overall than Nylander, yes?  Including playoffs.  Maybe I'm wrong about that but if not he deserves to make more than Nylander.

In any event, no, it is not self-evident.  That declaration isn't persuasive.

Again, I was not the biggest fan of them drafting Marner.
I haven't rushed out to buy his jersey, etc.

I've been watching since the 60s. So these are players I've seen.
This is one that got me on Marner (semi repost):

Keon, Mahovlich, Sittler, Sundin, Matthews, Marner

have something in common.

They strung together 8 or more years as Leafs when they were in the top 10 in NHL scoring over that time.

(historical note: Sundin was top 3 (best of the above) in league scoring over the years he wore a Leafs jersey - only Sakic & Jagr scored more)

Do I equate Marner with the other five? No but he's done pretty darn well.

Supporting cast:
Keon & Mahovlich were part of 4 Cup winning rosters
Sittler had Lanny McDonald, Salming, Turnbull and some wingers as good as most of the recent left wingers
Sundin had Roberts, Mogilny, Kaberle/McCabe
so they all had some help

I recall my pessimism over Marner's size when he was drafted. I admit it. I was concerned.
When Marner does something like the above over 8 NHL seasons, and he did it like Keon who was also not physically big with attention to playing defense at a high level, you've got to tip your cap. No one could convince me enough to take that away from him. This is not something we've seen very often in the last 60+ years. It rattles me a little that they would just throw him on the dump heap after doing that. It seems crazy to me. We've suffered so many years and we stumble into someone like this and throw him away near his prime?

Some Leafs fans and Leafs media can sometimes be like the mammals that eat their young (I'm thinking of a bunch of the younger Leafs draft picks in decades past who got overwhelmed).

herman

#476
I'm not against having top money dedicated to premier forwards, but they all have to be drivers, not passengers. Both current passengers are on the final years of their current deals. I think one can still drive from lower in the lineup.

Matthews arrived on a scene as a driver and has only gotten better, not only adding to his offensive arsenal, but putting dedication into the defensive side of the game and creating additional opportunities for his teammates with his puck retrieval, positioning, and gravitational pull. He put up 40 goals on a down year with a busted wrist by adapting to his inability to shoot and attacking the slot with tips and dekes instead.

Tavares was a driver when we signed him and has aged into a passenger with some specialties. Guess who the coach has nearly always relied on to get him into good positions to capitalize on his skill set on the back half of his career? Heading into the final year of his contract, he might be better suited driving a 3rd line with big, fast, lunch pail wingers who can play fetch, and just pop pucks loose into chaos for Tavares' hands to go to work.

Marner has a relentless motor and puts in effort at both ends of the ice to make plays with the puck. He started on a third line with our former 1st liners, and was then trusted to wingman the Leafs top pivots over the years thanks to his playmaking acumen. He is not the fastest in straight lines, but very agile and favours using his macro-creativity to generate opportunities for linemates, often where no one (even his linemates sometimes) expects it. He puts up points as the Leafs tend to use him as the QB in the offensive zone with their preferred methodical, patient attack style.

Nylander started his career as a passenger to Matthews, but adapted to the rigours of the NHL in body composition and playstyle, and is one of the rare play drivers from the wing. He hugged the perimeter when he was smaller, but now is one of the hardest players to stop when he drives the net, with a handful of go-to moves he has honed over the years. He has started to apply his puck skills and board work more consistently in the DZ and often plays the centre's role in swinging low support and NZ transporter. Keefe routinely called on Nylander to lead secondary offense when he felt the need to create super lines, leading to regular playoff linemates such as Alex Kerfoot, Noel Acciari, Pierre Engvall, Alex Galchenyuk, David Kampf, Sam Lafferty, etc.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

Bullfrog

Quote from: herman on June 09, 2024, 11:08:02 AMDeclarations aren't really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we've really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it's self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

11th in points over the last 3 years (7th in ppg), plays PK/PP, selke voting, 12th highest cap hit. 2nd straight season of 101-point pace.

"barely" matches is a thinly veiled insult. His play/value clearly matches his cap hit.

Go ahead and continue to be critical of his play, his fit, whether he or multiple lesser players are better, etc. But can you admit he's an extremely talented, valuable player who earns his cap hit?

We get you don't like him, but your criticism is becoming comical at this point.

Dappleganger

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 10, 2024, 08:55:07 AM
Quote from: herman on June 09, 2024, 11:08:02 AMDeclarations aren't really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we've really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it's self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

11th in points over the last 3 years (7th in ppg), plays PK/PP, selke voting, 12th highest cap hit. 2nd straight season of 101-point pace.

"barely" matches is a thinly veiled insult. His play/value clearly matches his cap hit.

Go ahead and continue to be critical of his play, his fit, whether he or multiple lesser players are better, etc. But can you admit he's an extremely talented, valuable player who earns his cap hit?

We get you don't like him, but your criticism is becoming comical at this point.

Agreed Bullfrog, Marner has played relative to his cap hit. My qualm is he should sign for $11m a season and not $12.5m (or any huge increase over what he makes now). He shouldn't be the 4th highest paid player in the league, his play doesn't align with that.

L K

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 10, 2024, 08:55:07 AM
Quote from: herman on June 09, 2024, 11:08:02 AMDeclarations aren't really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we've really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it's self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

11th in points over the last 3 years (7th in ppg), plays PK/PP, selke voting, 12th highest cap hit. 2nd straight season of 101-point pace.

"barely" matches is a thinly veiled insult. His play/value clearly matches his cap hit.

Go ahead and continue to be critical of his play, his fit, whether he or multiple lesser players are better, etc. But can you admit he's an extremely talented, valuable player who earns his cap hit?

We get you don't like him, but your criticism is becoming comical at this point.

I think the problem is that the Leafs players are matching their salary but we haven't really seen any sort of discount.  Everyone essentially skipped the bridge deal (Nylander was sort of a bridge) so we didn't get the good value years coming off entry level contracts and now are giving out more raises that put the Leafs at the top of the salary lists.

MacKinnon is making 12.6 million.  Pettersson is going to make 11.6M.   Pastrnak is making 11.5M

It's not Marner's obligation to sign at a discount but the Leafs don't seem to get value out of their premier players in the same way that other teams are getting.  We seem to have to pay what they are worth (obviously in a perfect world the cap would be much higher and guys like Matthews would be making 20M...but that isn't how the owners/Bettman want to drive growth of the game).

Marner is good.  He's going to leave a massive hole that two Tyler Bertuzzi's aren't going to fill...it's more that I don't think Berube is going to change the style enough to make the team feel different.  The glaring hole of this team is that our defense sucks at moving the puck.  We did a decent job of making our blueline tough over the last 2-3 years.  We don't give up a lot of brutal chances in the playoffs...but they can't move the puck up the ice.  Goals are scored almost exclusively on the transition right now and the Leafs suck at getting the puck through the neutral zone come the postseason. 

I just don't see how you make the necessary changes and keep Marner around.