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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 02:40:35 PM

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herman

Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 04, 2024, 12:22:30 AMNo shock here...

This update literally says there has been no news.

But if we're analyzing the whitespace of an article here, what we're not seeing, that is common in superstar UFA-1 conversations, is a vociferous assurance of the player loving it in this city and playing for this team. If all we're getting is this perfunctory "he will honour his contract", then that's more telling.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

RedLeaf

Quote from: herman on June 04, 2024, 08:44:58 AM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 04, 2024, 12:22:30 AMNo shock here...

This update literally says there has been no news.

But if we're analyzing the whitespace of an article here, what we're not seeing, that is common in superstar UFA-1 conversations, is a vociferous assurance of the player loving it in this city and playing for this team. If all we're getting is this perfunctory "he will honour his contract", then that's more telling.

I think his agent is in full command now.
"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.." --Isaac Asimov.

Bender

Quote from: RedLeaf on June 04, 2024, 08:52:16 AM
Quote from: herman on June 04, 2024, 08:44:58 AM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 04, 2024, 12:22:30 AMNo shock here...

This update literally says there has been no news.

But if we're analyzing the whitespace of an article here, what we're not seeing, that is common in superstar UFA-1 conversations, is a vociferous assurance of the player loving it in this city and playing for this team. If all we're getting is this perfunctory "he will honour his contract", then that's more telling.

I think his agent is in full command now.

We'll see what happens.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

cw

Toronto Sun: May 06, 2024 Mitch Marner wants to sign long-term with the Maple Leafs
Quote"That would be a goal," Marner said when he was asked if he wants to stay in Toronto longterm. "I've expressed my love for this place, this city. I grew up here. We'll start thinking about that now and trying to figure something out."
That was said less than a month ago.
How many times should he have to say it?

LeBrun provided an update that things have not changed - which is news. Marner's camp is still set on honoring his contract. They still have not provided a trade list nor entertained extension talks and do not seem interested in doing so any time soon. They still seem set on remaining in Toronto to start this season.

Friedman backed Lebrun up on that generally. Friedman added (paraphrased) "It is a very delicate situation ... for the Leafs". He reminded of the Kadri deal.
It is not that delicate for Marner. He just has to honor his contract. If the Leafs say the wrong thing, Marner could be gone for nothing to the UFA market his agent wants for him next summer. Those are the simple facts.

Tkachuk sign and trade happened in July, 2022. A lot easier to do that kind of a deal then.

If Marner goes into the season unsigned (which seems more likely based on the recent reports), how do you move him then? If (big IF) he provides a short destination list, those teams are likely near the cap once the season starts as he's not likely to be into another 8 year rebuild. Are the Leafs going to get something in return for their top playoff scorer that makes them a better team for the '24-25 playoffs? Extremely doubtful from a short trade list - so a trade is likely to damage their playoff aspirations next spring - which Shanahan won't like as his contract expires. If Marner starts the season with the Leafs, it is going to be even harder to move him.

Marner stated that he wanted to remain in Toronto. He shouldn't have to restate that every week. If Marner sticks to his position, next summer, his agent can ask "Do you want Marner to leave as a UFA for nothing or not?" The Leafs will probably want to re-sign him rather than lose him for nothing. If Marner truly wants to remain in Toronto, that might be his best strategy. Actions speak louder than words.

The Tavares signing bonus tax issue might turn that all upside down. That might be what they're waiting to find out. With that lurking, as a player, I wouldn't be in any hurry to sign a big deal until that gets clarified. You also have to wonder about US players taking CDN teams off their acceptable trade list because of that or because they've become aware of significantly higher CDN taxes - which might complicate sign and trade possibilities. In that scenario, Leafs might be lucky to sign any top UFAs.

Bender

Quote from: cw on June 04, 2024, 12:01:25 PMToronto Sun: May 06, 2024 Mitch Marner wants to sign long-term with the Maple Leafs
Quote"That would be a goal," Marner said when he was asked if he wants to stay in Toronto longterm. "I've expressed my love for this place, this city. I grew up here. We'll start thinking about that now and trying to figure something out."
That was said less than a month ago.
How many times should he have to say it?

LeBrun provided an update that things have not changed - which is news. Marner's camp is still set on honoring his contract. They still have not provided a trade list nor entertained extension talks and do not seem interested in doing so any time soon. They still seem set on remaining in Toronto to start this season.

Friedman backed Lebrun up on that generally. Friedman added (paraphrased) "It is a very delicate situation ... for the Leafs". He reminded of the Kadri deal.
It is not that delicate for Marner. He just has to honor his contract. If the Leafs say the wrong thing, Marner could be gone for nothing to the UFA market his agent wants for him next summer. Those are the simple facts.

Tkachuk sign and trade happened in July, 2022. A lot easier to do that kind of a deal then.

If Marner goes into the season unsigned (which seems more likely based on the recent reports), how do you move him then? If (big IF) he provides a short destination list, those teams are likely near the cap once the season starts as he's not likely to be into another 8 year rebuild. Are the Leafs going to get something in return for their top playoff scorer that makes them a better team for the '24-25 playoffs? Extremely doubtful from a short trade list - so a trade is likely to damage their playoff aspirations next spring - which Shanahan won't like as his contract expires. If Marner starts the season with the Leafs, it is going to be even harder to move him.

Marner stated that he wanted to remain in Toronto. He shouldn't have to restate that every week. If Marner sticks to his position, next summer, his agent can ask "Do you want Marner to leave as a UFA for nothing or not?" The Leafs will probably want to re-sign him rather than lose him for nothing. If Marner truly wants to remain in Toronto, that might be his best strategy. Actions speak louder than words.

The Tavares signing bonus tax issue might turn that all upside down. That might be what they're waiting to find out. With that lurking, as a player, I wouldn't be in any hurry to sign a big deal until that gets clarified. You also have to wonder about US players taking CDN teams off their acceptable trade list because of that or because they've become aware of significantly higher CDN taxes - which might complicate sign and trade possibilities. In that scenario, Leafs might be lucky to sign any top UFAs.

I love how the narrative is the Leafs could say the "wrong" thing and Marner could leave. Unless it's "Mitch is the second coming of Christ" it's the wrong thing. Hyperbolic obviously, but with this camp anything could set them off beyond completely caving to their demands.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

herman

Quote from: RedLeaf on June 04, 2024, 08:52:16 AM
Quote from: herman on June 04, 2024, 08:44:58 AM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on June 04, 2024, 12:22:30 AMNo shock here...

This update literally says there has been no news.

But if we're analyzing the whitespace of an article here, what we're not seeing, that is common in superstar UFA-1 conversations, is a vociferous assurance of the player loving it in this city and playing for this team. If all we're getting is this perfunctory "he will honour his contract", then that's more telling.

I think his agent is in full command now.

It's the equivalent of letting your lawyer draft and send the text messages to arrange a dinner date with your (ex)significant other.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

cw

Quote from: Bender on June 04, 2024, 01:07:31 PMI love how the narrative is the Leafs could say the "wrong" thing and Marner could leave. Unless it's "Mitch is the second coming of Christ" it's the wrong thing. Hyperbolic obviously, but with this camp anything could set them off beyond completely caving to their demands.

If he insists on max cap hit x 8 years, they're going to show him the door.
So there are limits.

The minute they go to the guy and say "could we have a list? We'd like to test the waters to see what we could get for you?", they're basically saying "we're not 100% down with keeping you around for our Cup run and we'd like to look at getting something back before you take off .. Your legacy in Toronto, after your 8 years of service is we're dumping you. Don't take it personally - it's all just part of the game"

His agent says to him "Ok, it is crystal clear now. You have to look after you now because after 8 years of service as a top 10 NHL scorer and the team's top playoff scorer, your team is no longer convinced your talents are important enough to have around to build a winner."
I think his agent would be right. And the best move for him would be to test the UFA market and sign with the location that seems like it is best for his hockey career and family, etc.

Everyone knows what is going on. If the Leafs make the slightest move to dump him, he could be gone for nothing.
He can say "Nylander did not extend until Jan 2024 so what's the problem with me taking my time?"
Leafs management can't say much otherwise or he's gone.
They'll never recover his NHL roster talent at the deadline so his departure then would hurt their playoff chances.
Marner is holding most of the cards. That is the way it is. The existing contract they gave him dictates that.

lamajama

And thank you Dubas for screwing up that negotiation. What a major major should-be-fired type of
deal by KB - not so much the money but the money AND the NTC/NMC.

Of course I felt Burke should have been fired for not lottery protecting the Phil the Thrill deal.

That was something even a rookie GM would have done.
I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you.

Bullfrog

Quote from: lamajama on June 04, 2024, 05:48:38 PMAnd thank you Dubas for screwing up that negotiation. What a major major should-be-fired type of
deal by KB - not so much the money but the money AND the NTC/NMC.
...

He would have gotten that on any team with any GM.

herman

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 04, 2024, 07:10:34 PM
Quote from: lamajama on June 04, 2024, 05:48:38 PMAnd thank you Dubas for screwing up that negotiation. What a major major should-be-fired type of
deal by KB - not so much the money but the money AND the NTC/NMC.
...

He would have gotten that on any team with any GM.

Heck, I would've given him that NMC.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

cw

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 04, 2024, 07:10:34 PM
Quote from: lamajama on June 04, 2024, 05:48:38 PMAnd thank you Dubas for screwing up that negotiation. What a major major should-be-fired type of
deal by KB - not so much the money but the money AND the NTC/NMC.
...

He would have gotten that on any team with any GM.

Yep
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active?stats-season=2024&pg=1

Bender

Quote from: cw on June 04, 2024, 02:41:09 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 04, 2024, 01:07:31 PMI love how the narrative is the Leafs could say the "wrong" thing and Marner could leave. Unless it's "Mitch is the second coming of Christ" it's the wrong thing. Hyperbolic obviously, but with this camp anything could set them off beyond completely caving to their demands.

If he insists on max cap hit x 8 years, they're going to show him the door.
So there are limits.

The minute they go to the guy and say "could we have a list? We'd like to test the waters to see what we could get for you?", they're basically saying "we're not 100% down with keeping you around for our Cup run and we'd like to look at getting something back before you take off .. Your legacy in Toronto, after your 8 years of service is we're dumping you. Don't take it personally - it's all just part of the game"

His agent says to him "Ok, it is crystal clear now. You have to look after you now because after 8 years of service as a top 10 NHL scorer and the team's top playoff scorer, your team is no longer convinced your talents are important enough to have around to build a winner."
I think his agent would be right. And the best move for him would be to test the UFA market and sign with the location that seems like it is best for his hockey career and family, etc.

Everyone knows what is going on. If the Leafs make the slightest move to dump him, he could be gone for nothing.
He can say "Nylander did not extend until Jan 2024 so what's the problem with me taking my time?"
Leafs management can't say much otherwise or he's gone.
They'll never recover his NHL roster talent at the deadline so his departure then would hurt their playoff chances.
Marner is holding most of the cards. That is the way it is. The existing contract they gave him dictates that.

My point is he's gone if he wants to go, end of story, regardless of what the Leafs say. He could already be gone for any reason for all we know, so it's just funny to me that the Leafs could walk on eggshells, roll out the red carpet and Marner could still say nah for any reason. It's his right, and he has a lot of leverage but I think the Leafs can still play some cards here.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Bender

Quote from: lamajama on June 04, 2024, 05:48:38 PMAnd thank you Dubas for screwing up that negotiation. What a major major should-be-fired type of
deal by KB - not so much the money but the money AND the NTC/NMC.

Of course I felt Burke should have been fired for not lottery protecting the Phil the Thrill deal.

That was something even a rookie GM would have done.

They generally didn't lottery protect back then iirc, but yeah that was awful.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

cw

Quote from: Bender on June 04, 2024, 09:24:41 PM
Quote from: cw on June 04, 2024, 02:41:09 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 04, 2024, 01:07:31 PMI love how the narrative is the Leafs could say the "wrong" thing and Marner could leave. Unless it's "Mitch is the second coming of Christ" it's the wrong thing. Hyperbolic obviously, but with this camp anything could set them off beyond completely caving to their demands.

If he insists on max cap hit x 8 years, they're going to show him the door.
So there are limits.

The minute they go to the guy and say "could we have a list? We'd like to test the waters to see what we could get for you?", they're basically saying "we're not 100% down with keeping you around for our Cup run and we'd like to look at getting something back before you take off .. Your legacy in Toronto, after your 8 years of service is we're dumping you. Don't take it personally - it's all just part of the game"

His agent says to him "Ok, it is crystal clear now. You have to look after you now because after 8 years of service as a top 10 NHL scorer and the team's top playoff scorer, your team is no longer convinced your talents are important enough to have around to build a winner."
I think his agent would be right. And the best move for him would be to test the UFA market and sign with the location that seems like it is best for his hockey career and family, etc.

Everyone knows what is going on. If the Leafs make the slightest move to dump him, he could be gone for nothing.
He can say "Nylander did not extend until Jan 2024 so what's the problem with me taking my time?"
Leafs management can't say much otherwise or he's gone.
They'll never recover his NHL roster talent at the deadline so his departure then would hurt their playoff chances.
Marner is holding most of the cards. That is the way it is. The existing contract they gave him dictates that.

My point is he's gone if he wants to go, end of story, regardless of what the Leafs say. He could already be gone for any reason for all we know, so it's just funny to me that the Leafs could walk on eggshells, roll out the red carpet and Marner could still say nah for any reason. It's his right, and he has a lot of leverage but I think the Leafs can still play some cards here.

Marner has declared he wants to re-sign. He's Toronto born & raised with a wife also from Toronto area along with both their families.
Leafs could play some cards to maybe/hopefully get a hometown discount and re-sign him. Those cards would be ok as they're both working towards extending his time here - that he's said he wants to do.

But playing other cards - like making his life miserable, cutting his ice time/linemates or letting him get roasted in the media - to get him to agree to a trade - that's a dangerous game that they could lose big time. If his buddies on the team see that, it probably won't end well - damaging what has been reported as a pretty good locker room. UFAs will stay away. Hopefully, they don't try to play cards like that.

OldTimeHockey

Quote from: cw on June 04, 2024, 10:40:12 PMMarner has declared he wants to re-sign. He's Toronto born & raised with a wife also from Toronto area along with both their families.
Leafs could play some cards to maybe/hopefully get a hometown discount and re-sign him. Those cards would be ok as they're both working towards extending his time here - that he's said he wants to do.

But playing other cards - like making his life miserable, cutting his ice time/linemates or letting him get roasted in the media - to get him to agree to a trade - that's a dangerous game that they could lose big time. If his buddies on the team see that, it probably won't end well - damaging what has been reported as a pretty good locker room. UFAs will stay away. Hopefully, they don't try to play cards like that.

This is how I feel about it.

Toronto's media is ruthless. It's like water torture and the team would only benefit from trying their best to halt the constant trade rumours. I'm not 100% sure how they achieve that but they could start with a vote of confidence. Yes those votes of confidence are usually a death sentence, but it at least acknowledges the situation and steps in the right direction.