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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 02:40:35 PM

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L K

I'm not against moving Tavares but one year of cap relief if we are eating a chunk of his salary to trade him...we better have a clear plan for what happens with that money.  He's not an 11M player but he is still a guy who puts up 29G and 65P last year.  He also had 16 goals and 30 points in 33 games after the all-star break.   

What are we using that money for in this offseason to upgrade the team more than what Tavares provides?

The bigger argument for trading Marner is that he won't be cheaper after next year.  So while he's an incredible talent, if you want to change the makeup of the team, he's a big salary that will be cleared out (whether by trade this year or he refuses to waive and we lose him for nothing next year).  Tavares comes off the books but if you want him back you can potentially sign him to a more cap reasonable contract next year (or even this year if you really want to go into contract extension plans).  Marner also should provide a meaningful return whereas I think Tavares will carry some value but the number of teams that will be able to absorb his contract and also be a team he would agree to play for isn't going to be high.

mr grieves

Quote from: Zee on May 15, 2024, 11:28:51 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on May 15, 2024, 10:52:05 AMIt's less about him, it's more about the reallocation of the salary cap. Tavares will not be paid 8 figures beyond next year so you choose one out of the remaining three 8-figure contracts to go and everyone is choosing Marner. They give their reasoning which is a shit-list of everything bad about him and it comes across as attacking him. The bullying of Marner by some is also done out of frustration and with the intention of pushing him out. I am okay with the bullying approach because management has not addressed the cap allocation issues and making life difficult for Marner may force their hand. If he's resigned, I don't see any of the results changing with this team.

The team's formula doesn't work and a reallocation is necessary.

Yeah, they've tried it with 50% of the cap tied up in 4 players, it's just not happening. If Tavares agrees to move and you retain $4M on his deal, that's $7M to go out and find a player or 2, if you get rid of Marner's 10.9 that's another player or 2. If you can reallocate 2 players and bring in 4 actual NHL better than average players you're talking, especially if one of them is a top 4 dman.


Ooooooor you wait a year and the cap, just through the passage of time (i.e. Tavares expiring), gets reallocated as:

Matthews @ 13.5
Nylander @ 11.5
Marner @ ...12?

That's $37M, and, on an ~$90M cap, it's just over 40%. That is, if I'm remembering last I checked accurately, a pretty normal looking allocation for a contending team.

I can see moving Marner in a hockey trade modeled on the Tkachuk or DuBois deal, but just moving him for cost-controlled parts and cap space seems odd, since the cost and cap pressures are considerably lessened after next season.

Does that mean you're not really "going for it" next year? Yeah. But it maximizes their chances in years 2-5 IMO.

Joe

I'm not really adding anything meaningful here other than to say I'm personally in the camp of trading Marner just to get him off the team is a mistake. Unless the return is phenomenal, this will absolutely be one of those trades that is looked back on as a mistake.

Dappleganger

Quote from: Joe on May 16, 2024, 12:54:21 PMI'm not really adding anything meaningful here other than to say I'm personally in the camp of trading Marner just to get him off the team is a mistake. Unless the return is phenomenal, this will absolutely be one of those trades that is looked back on as a mistake.


I will say this, the problem with the Leafs these past 8 years has been playoff scoring? So, to remedy this problem they're going to get rid of the player that has the most playoff points the last 8 years?

It's pretty funny on the face of it.

 

Bender

Quote from: Dappleganger on May 16, 2024, 01:41:02 PM
Quote from: Joe on May 16, 2024, 12:54:21 PMI'm not really adding anything meaningful here other than to say I'm personally in the camp of trading Marner just to get him off the team is a mistake. Unless the return is phenomenal, this will absolutely be one of those trades that is looked back on as a mistake.


I will say this, the problem with the Leafs these past 8 years has been playoff scoring? So, to remedy this problem they're going to get rid of the player that has the most playoff points the last 8 years?

It's pretty funny on the face of it.

 


Is it? Or does having a more rounded roster raise the tide more? Marner, in recent memory, has never turned it on when the chips are actually down. How many goals has Marner scored?
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Bender

Quote from: mr grieves on May 16, 2024, 12:49:56 PM
Quote from: Zee on May 15, 2024, 11:28:51 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on May 15, 2024, 10:52:05 AMIt's less about him, it's more about the reallocation of the salary cap. Tavares will not be paid 8 figures beyond next year so you choose one out of the remaining three 8-figure contracts to go and everyone is choosing Marner. They give their reasoning which is a shit-list of everything bad about him and it comes across as attacking him. The bullying of Marner by some is also done out of frustration and with the intention of pushing him out. I am okay with the bullying approach because management has not addressed the cap allocation issues and making life difficult for Marner may force their hand. If he's resigned, I don't see any of the results changing with this team.

The team's formula doesn't work and a reallocation is necessary.

Yeah, they've tried it with 50% of the cap tied up in 4 players, it's just not happening. If Tavares agrees to move and you retain $4M on his deal, that's $7M to go out and find a player or 2, if you get rid of Marner's 10.9 that's another player or 2. If you can reallocate 2 players and bring in 4 actual NHL better than average players you're talking, especially if one of them is a top 4 dman.


Ooooooor you wait a year and the cap, just through the passage of time (i.e. Tavares expiring), gets reallocated as:

Matthews @ 13.5
Nylander @ 11.5
Marner @ ...12?

That's $37M, and, on an ~$90M cap, it's just over 40%. That is, if I'm remembering last I checked accurately, a pretty normal looking allocation for a contending team.

I can see moving Marner in a hockey trade modeled on the Tkachuk or DuBois deal, but just moving him for cost-controlled parts and cap space seems odd, since the cost and cap pressures are considerably lessened after next season.

Does that mean you're not really "going for it" next year? Yeah. But it maximizes their chances in years 2-5 IMO.

I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with better balance throughout the lineup.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Joe

Quote from: Bender on May 16, 2024, 01:51:03 PM
Quote from: Dappleganger on May 16, 2024, 01:41:02 PM
Quote from: Joe on May 16, 2024, 12:54:21 PMI'm not really adding anything meaningful here other than to say I'm personally in the camp of trading Marner just to get him off the team is a mistake. Unless the return is phenomenal, this will absolutely be one of those trades that is looked back on as a mistake.


I will say this, the problem with the Leafs these past 8 years has been playoff scoring? So, to remedy this problem they're going to get rid of the player that has the most playoff points the last 8 years?

It's pretty funny on the face of it.

 


Is it? Or does having a more rounded roster raise the tide more? Marner, in recent memory, has never turned it on when the chips are actually down. How many goals has Marner scored?

Stamkos has 0 points in all his career game 7s.

Joe Sakic has 6 points in 9 career game 7s, and was pointless in 5 of those games

Kucherov has 0 points in his career in game 7

Modano has 2 points in 6 career game 7s and was scoreless in 5 of those games.

bustaheims

Quote from: Dappleganger on May 16, 2024, 01:41:02 PMI will say this, the problem with the Leafs these past 8 years has been playoff scoring? So, to remedy this problem they're going to get rid of the player that has the most playoff points the last 8 years?

It's pretty funny on the face of it.

I posted this a little while back, but more than half of Marner's playoff points came from 3 series. The rest of his playoffs have been similar to what we saw this time around. They're the only 3 series he's put up more than 4 points in. The total point thing, while absolutely true, is not a good representation of his actual playoff efforts.

I'm also not in the camp of getting rid of him for the sake of getting rid of him. That's almost always a mistake. But, the team needs a shakeup, and he does feel like the most logical significant piece to move.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Zee

Quote from: mr grieves on May 16, 2024, 12:49:56 PM
Quote from: Zee on May 15, 2024, 11:28:51 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on May 15, 2024, 10:52:05 AMIt's less about him, it's more about the reallocation of the salary cap. Tavares will not be paid 8 figures beyond next year so you choose one out of the remaining three 8-figure contracts to go and everyone is choosing Marner. They give their reasoning which is a shit-list of everything bad about him and it comes across as attacking him. The bullying of Marner by some is also done out of frustration and with the intention of pushing him out. I am okay with the bullying approach because management has not addressed the cap allocation issues and making life difficult for Marner may force their hand. If he's resigned, I don't see any of the results changing with this team.

The team's formula doesn't work and a reallocation is necessary.

Yeah, they've tried it with 50% of the cap tied up in 4 players, it's just not happening. If Tavares agrees to move and you retain $4M on his deal, that's $7M to go out and find a player or 2, if you get rid of Marner's 10.9 that's another player or 2. If you can reallocate 2 players and bring in 4 actual NHL better than average players you're talking, especially if one of them is a top 4 dman.


Ooooooor you wait a year and the cap, just through the passage of time (i.e. Tavares expiring), gets reallocated as:

Matthews @ 13.5
Nylander @ 11.5
Marner @ ...12?

That's $37M, and, on an ~$90M cap, it's just over 40%. That is, if I'm remembering last I checked accurately, a pretty normal looking allocation for a contending team.

I can see moving Marner in a hockey trade modeled on the Tkachuk or DuBois deal, but just moving him for cost-controlled parts and cap space seems odd, since the cost and cap pressures are considerably lessened after next season.

Does that mean you're not really "going for it" next year? Yeah. But it maximizes their chances in years 2-5 IMO.

$37M on your top 3 players (all forwards) is not a normal allocation for a contending team.

Here's a list of contending teams, or teams who have recently won cups.  Notice all of them have either a defenseman or a a goalie in their top 3 of salary allocation.  Not one of those teams goes over 31M in cap space for 3 players.

Dallas: 27.8M (Seguin, Benn, Heiskanen)
Colorado : 30.83M (MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar)
Florida: 29.5M (Barkov,Tkahchuk, Bobrovsky)
Vegas: 28.3M (Eichel, Stone, Pietrangelo)
Tampa: 28.5 (Kucherov, Point, Vasilevskiy)

cabber24

Quote from: mr grieves on May 16, 2024, 12:49:56 PM
Quote from: Zee on May 15, 2024, 11:28:51 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on May 15, 2024, 10:52:05 AMIt's less about him, it's more about the reallocation of the salary cap. Tavares will not be paid 8 figures beyond next year so you choose one out of the remaining three 8-figure contracts to go and everyone is choosing Marner. They give their reasoning which is a shit-list of everything bad about him and it comes across as attacking him. The bullying of Marner by some is also done out of frustration and with the intention of pushing him out. I am okay with the bullying approach because management has not addressed the cap allocation issues and making life difficult for Marner may force their hand. If he's resigned, I don't see any of the results changing with this team.

The team's formula doesn't work and a reallocation is necessary.

Yeah, they've tried it with 50% of the cap tied up in 4 players, it's just not happening. If Tavares agrees to move and you retain $4M on his deal, that's $7M to go out and find a player or 2, if you get rid of Marner's 10.9 that's another player or 2. If you can reallocate 2 players and bring in 4 actual NHL better than average players you're talking, especially if one of them is a top 4 dman.


Ooooooor you wait a year and the cap, just through the passage of time (i.e. Tavares expiring), gets reallocated as:

Matthews @ 13.5
Nylander @ 11.5
Marner @ ...12?

That's $37M, and, on an ~$90M cap, it's just over 40%. That is, if I'm remembering last I checked accurately, a pretty normal looking allocation for a contending team.

I can see moving Marner in a hockey trade modeled on the Tkachuk or DuBois deal, but just moving him for cost-controlled parts and cap space seems odd, since the cost and cap pressures are considerably lessened after next season.

Does that mean you're not really "going for it" next year? Yeah. But it maximizes their chances in years 2-5 IMO.
I would rather have Tavares at a reasonable number and reallocate the MM16 cap to D and G.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

Zee

Quote from: cabber24 on May 17, 2024, 11:41:38 AM
Quote from: mr grieves on May 16, 2024, 12:49:56 PM
Quote from: Zee on May 15, 2024, 11:28:51 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on May 15, 2024, 10:52:05 AMIt's less about him, it's more about the reallocation of the salary cap. Tavares will not be paid 8 figures beyond next year so you choose one out of the remaining three 8-figure contracts to go and everyone is choosing Marner. They give their reasoning which is a shit-list of everything bad about him and it comes across as attacking him. The bullying of Marner by some is also done out of frustration and with the intention of pushing him out. I am okay with the bullying approach because management has not addressed the cap allocation issues and making life difficult for Marner may force their hand. If he's resigned, I don't see any of the results changing with this team.

The team's formula doesn't work and a reallocation is necessary.

Yeah, they've tried it with 50% of the cap tied up in 4 players, it's just not happening. If Tavares agrees to move and you retain $4M on his deal, that's $7M to go out and find a player or 2, if you get rid of Marner's 10.9 that's another player or 2. If you can reallocate 2 players and bring in 4 actual NHL better than average players you're talking, especially if one of them is a top 4 dman.


Ooooooor you wait a year and the cap, just through the passage of time (i.e. Tavares expiring), gets reallocated as:

Matthews @ 13.5
Nylander @ 11.5
Marner @ ...12?

That's $37M, and, on an ~$90M cap, it's just over 40%. That is, if I'm remembering last I checked accurately, a pretty normal looking allocation for a contending team.

I can see moving Marner in a hockey trade modeled on the Tkachuk or DuBois deal, but just moving him for cost-controlled parts and cap space seems odd, since the cost and cap pressures are considerably lessened after next season.

Does that mean you're not really "going for it" next year? Yeah. But it maximizes their chances in years 2-5 IMO.
I would rather have Tavares at a reasonable number and reallocate the MM16 cap to D and G.

It's a trickle down affect.  The Leafs tying up $40M in forwards would be fine if all of those forwards just took over playoff series, but more often than not that doesn't happen.  By spreading the money around more evenly throughout the roster, you have a better chance of having good players further down the lineup that may make a difference for you.  Also, having big money on a defenseman that can reliably play 25-30 minutes in big pressure situations goes a LONG way in winning games.  It's no surprise that the most successful teams usually have 1 really good stud d-man.  The Leafs have Rielly who is offense only, not as impactful as a true superstar like Makar or Heiskanen.

Looking back on their draft, it's crazy that Heiskanen and Makar went 3-4.  If you redraft that year they'd be 1-2.

L K

I still think the biggest impact on the team is the lack of internal growth.  Too many draft picks/prospects traded for rentals rather than looking for longer-term assets. 

I think there are only 9 players still in the organization who have played in the NHL since the 2015 draft:
Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Liljegren, Woll, Abruzzese, Robertson, Minten, Holmberg

Abruzzese probably doesn't play with the Leafs moving forward, Robertson had a good offensive season and should hopefully continue to build his role, Holmberg finally established himself this year.  Liljegren has perpetually been on the outs with Keefe.

We dont' have the cap space to fill in quality depth but then are also cheating ourselves but not internally developing depth.  Trading Marner is an opportunity to recoup some depth assets while also freeing up cap space to fill holes.

CarltonTheBear

https://twitter.com/TLNdc/status/1792238266722156638

A rough final year here obviously, as well as in the playoffs last year, but man Brodie was a bit of stud for most of his time as a Leaf. And while not a perfect fit as a LHD he solved the Rielly-partner problem for a long time. It's a shame just how much he fell off this season because I would have loved to see him stay on a cheap home down discount in more of a bottom pairing role for awhile.

herman

#27 #TeamFasstholes

herman

#27 #TeamFasstholes