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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 02:40:35 PM

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Zee

I don't like the fact that Pelley AND Shanahan will be at the presser. It sort of indicates that Shanahan isn't fired. Maybe he's finally at a point where he agrees something has to change with the core. Or maybe he's forced to agree with that by Pelley. But after 10 years and only 1 playoff round win, I don't think he should be the guy that gets to see this through anymore. I've heard rumors that the president role itself might be gone. So maybe Shanahan won't have a direct influence on the Leafs anymore. But I don't think he should get off free here.

cw

Quote from: cabber24 on May 08, 2024, 06:27:59 AMWatch the f-ing games! The clown scores points when it matters least! Good god!

Games 3 & 4 against Tampa
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030123.HTM
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030124.HTM
Both won by the Leafs in OT
Marner set up 2 goals in each of those games

If Marner doesn't do that, everything else remaining the same, they lose both games and Tampa wins the series in 5 games. There is no game 6 or 7. And there is no 6 game series with Florida

There would have been no game 5 vs Florida if Marner had not set up and scored the only 2 Leafs goals to win game 4 when facing elimination.

Cherry picking games stats in games 5-7 is Fool's Gold.
All the playoff games matter because there are no games 5-7 unless you score some in games 1-4.

bustaheims

Quote from: Zee on May 08, 2024, 08:11:02 AMI don't like the fact that Pelley AND Shanahan will be at the presser. It sort of indicates that Shanahan isn't fired. Maybe he's finally at a point where he agrees something has to change with the core. Or maybe he's forced to agree with that by Pelley. But after 10 years and only 1 playoff round win, I don't think he should be the guy that gets to see this through anymore. I've heard rumors that the president role itself might be gone. So maybe Shanahan won't have a direct influence on the Leafs anymore. But I don't think he should get off free here.

I wouldn't read anything into who is and who isn't at these pressers. Pelley's only been on the job a few weeks - only officially started April 2. He's almost certainly still putting the final touches on his plans before executing them.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Bender

Quote from: bustaheims on May 08, 2024, 08:32:57 AM
Quote from: Zee on May 08, 2024, 08:11:02 AMI don't like the fact that Pelley AND Shanahan will be at the presser. It sort of indicates that Shanahan isn't fired. Maybe he's finally at a point where he agrees something has to change with the core. Or maybe he's forced to agree with that by Pelley. But after 10 years and only 1 playoff round win, I don't think he should be the guy that gets to see this through anymore. I've heard rumors that the president role itself might be gone. So maybe Shanahan won't have a direct influence on the Leafs anymore. But I don't think he should get off free here.

I wouldn't read anything into who is and who isn't at these pressers. Pelley's only been on the job a few weeks - only officially started April 2. He's almost certainly still putting the final touches on his plans before executing them.

I'm wondering if Shanahan somehow becomes part of the board or moves in some other type of capacity.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Dappleganger

20 seconds after Nylander scores in game 7, Marner sets up this play. If it goes in the entire narrative around Mitch changes. Unfortunately Edmundson can't bury it in alone.

https://twitter.com/rareguitars/status/1788202102038110241


Bender

Quote from: cw on May 08, 2024, 08:17:49 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on May 08, 2024, 06:27:59 AMWatch the f-ing games! The clown scores points when it matters least! Good god!

Games 3 & 4 against Tampa
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030123.HTM
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030124.HTM
Both won by the Leafs in OT
Marner set up 2 goals in each of those games

If Marner doesn't do that, everything else remaining the same, they lose both games and Tampa wins the series in 5 games. There is no game 6 or 7. And there is no 6 game series with Florida

There would have been no game 5 vs Florida if Marner had not set up and scored the only 2 Leafs goals to win game 4 when facing elimination.

Cherry picking games stats in games 5-7 is Fool's Gold.
All the playoff games matter because there are no games 5-7 unless you score some in games 1-4.

The fact remains. Do you attempt to trade him or do you attempt to resign him? Tavares comes off the books but I don't think Marner deserves to be paid in the realm of Auston Matthews, which is what he is asking for. There's a world in which Marner just walks away from the team without return anyway. You say it's crazy to trade him but he might just go on his own, and then what?
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Bill_Berg

Quote from: Bender on May 08, 2024, 08:57:25 AM
Quote from: cw on May 08, 2024, 08:17:49 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on May 08, 2024, 06:27:59 AMWatch the f-ing games! The clown scores points when it matters least! Good god!

Games 3 & 4 against Tampa
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030123.HTM
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030124.HTM
Both won by the Leafs in OT
Marner set up 2 goals in each of those games

If Marner doesn't do that, everything else remaining the same, they lose both games and Tampa wins the series in 5 games. There is no game 6 or 7. And there is no 6 game series with Florida

There would have been no game 5 vs Florida if Marner had not set up and scored the only 2 Leafs goals to win game 4 when facing elimination.

Cherry picking games stats in games 5-7 is Fool's Gold.
All the playoff games matter because there are no games 5-7 unless you score some in games 1-4.

The fact remains. Do you attempt to trade him or do you attempt to resign him? Tavares comes off the books but I don't think Marner deserves to be paid in the realm of Auston Matthews, which is what he is asking for. There's a world in which Marner just walks away from the team without return anyway. You say it's crazy to trade him but he might just go on his own, and then what?

Can't trade him for pennies on the dollar, or if he just says no.

bustaheims

Quote from: Bender on May 08, 2024, 08:57:25 AMThe fact remains. Do you attempt to trade him or do you attempt to resign him? Tavares comes off the books but I don't think Marner deserves to be paid in the realm of Auston Matthews, which is what he is asking for. There's a world in which Marner just walks away from the team without return anyway. You say it's crazy to trade him but he might just go on his own, and then what?

That definitely has to be a big factor in the decision. If they aren't close on an extension this summer and it doesn't feel like they'll be able to bridge that gap, you have to look at moving him. He's too valuable a piece to just let him walk for nothing.

It also sort of feels like part of him wants out. I think the pressure and the outside noise have been getting to him. He's still producing, but I get the impression he's not as happy to be here as he once was.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

cw

Quote from: herman on May 07, 2024, 10:19:59 AMhttps://twitter.com/LeafsNews/status/1787864153715077314
Quote"The challenge here in Toronto is not coming up with the plan. The challenge in Toronto is sticking to it."
Those were Brendan Shanahan's famous words when he was hired as Leafs President and set out to rebuild the ailing, storied franchise. For an organization that had been stuck in the mud for a decade at the time, it was critical that they actually put a plan in place and stuck to it to climb out of the basement and ascend the standings.

They have mostly done that, making the playoffs for eight straight years. But when you make the playoffs eight straight years and all you have to show for it is one playoff series win, it isn't about sticking to a long-term plan anymore; it's about being honest about where the organization stands in the here and now.

I'd probably amend that:
"The challenge here in Toronto is not coming up with the plan. The challenge in Toronto is sticking to it."

There is probably not that much wrong with his plan.
The problem is executing it.
Not everything goes to according to plan.

We saw that last summer.
They knew they needed a dman. They couldn't get a good UFA dman. Took a chance on Klingberg.
They never got a crease clearer for the PK until the deadline.

It was apparent last summer that they were not as good a team as in 2022-23.
They never played like a top 6 contender. So they got bounced in the 1st round like most thought they probably would. I do not entirely get the frenetic handwringing or "looking for blood" at this point for the playoff result because the writing has been on the wall for a long time. Where they are today should not come as a shock. They've been on that trajectory for some time.

We saw in prior seasons when Dubas mortgaged a lot of the draft future for playoff shots that failed to win a round. The core 4 would be more affordable in this cap world if they had a better flow of economical talent like Knies coming on to the roster. So they probably didn't stick to the Shanaplan. But ownership was breathing down their necks for playoff round wins so mortgages of their future got underway.

Part of their job is to protect the organization. Part of that protection involves protecting their assets. Marner is an asset. Letting him get run in the media lowers his trade value and compromises their negotiating position should they want to move him. He's a top player and they have a good story to tell about him. They need to close ranks and shut some of the nonsense down.

Pelley is wise to have Shanahan around for a while. He's a good hockey man and seen a lot. Pelley has been on the job for a month. In order to chart where the team is going, you need to understand where the team has been. There is no need for any panic moves. That is a luxury of being knocked out early.

There is an obvious fork in the road:
- core 5 bolstered by UFAs
or
- trying to move a core 5 player to give them more cap space to bolster what is left
Both paths have to be looked at.

Them hunkering down to figure that out is probably the best we can hope for right now.

Bill_Berg

Quote from: cw on May 08, 2024, 09:03:52 AM
Quote from: herman on May 07, 2024, 10:19:59 AMhttps://twitter.com/LeafsNews/status/1787864153715077314
Quote"The challenge here in Toronto is not coming up with the plan. The challenge in Toronto is sticking to it."
Those were Brendan Shanahan's famous words when he was hired as Leafs President and set out to rebuild the ailing, storied franchise. For an organization that had been stuck in the mud for a decade at the time, it was critical that they actually put a plan in place and stuck to it to climb out of the basement and ascend the standings.

They have mostly done that, making the playoffs for eight straight years. But when you make the playoffs eight straight years and all you have to show for it is one playoff series win, it isn't about sticking to a long-term plan anymore; it's about being honest about where the organization stands in the here and now.

I'd probably amend that:
"The challenge here in Toronto is not coming up with the plan. The challenge in Toronto is sticking to it."

There is probably not that much wrong with his plan.
The problem is executing it.
Not everything goes to according to plan.

We saw that last summer.
They knew they needed a dman. They couldn't get a good UFA dman. Took a chance on Klingberg.
They never got a crease clearer for the PK until the deadline.

It was apparent last summer that they were not as good a team as in 2022-23.
They never played like a top 6 contender. So they got bounced in the 1st round like most thought they probably would. I do not entirely get the frenetic handwringing or "looking for blood" at this point for the playoff result because the writing has been on the wall for a long time. Where they are today should not come as a shock. They've been on that trajectory for some time.

We saw in prior seasons when Dubas mortgaged a lot of the draft future for playoff shots that failed to win a round. The core 4 would be more affordable in this cap world if they had a better flow of economical talent like Knies coming on to the roster. So they probably didn't stick to the Shanaplan. But ownership was breathing down their necks for playoff round wins so mortgages of their future got underway.

Part of their job is to protect the organization. Part of that protection involves protecting their assets. Marner is an asset. Letting him get run in the media lowers his trade value and compromises their negotiating position should they want to move him. He's a top player and they have a good story to tell about him. They need to close ranks and shut some of the nonsense down.

Pelley is wise to have Shanahan around for a while. He's a good hockey man and seen a lot. Pelley has been on the job for a month. In order to chart where the team is going, you need to understand where the team has been. There is no need for any panic moves. That is a luxury of being knocked out early.

There is an obvious fork in the road:
- core 5 bolstered by UFAs
or
- trying to move a core 5 player to give them more cap space to bolster what is left
Both paths have to be looked at.

Them hunkering down to figure that out is probably the best we can hope for right now.

The only problem is the obvious choice of the 5 to go, can't go until 2025. So do they 'burn' another year by trying to tinker again with UFAs, or has the patience run out? And if patience has run out, will it lead to a bad decision (trade Marner for nothing).

Guilt Trip

Quote from: Bill_Berg on May 08, 2024, 09:08:48 AMThe only problem is the obvious choice of the 5 to go, can't go until 2025. So do they 'burn' another year by trying to tinker again with UFAs, or has the patience run out? And if patience has run out, will it lead to a bad decision (trade Marner for nothing).
They can't do anything with those contracts except ask if they'll waive and then if one agrees to go, he has the choice of destination. Chances are they're riding this out for another year until JT comes off the 11M.

Bill_Berg

Quote from: Guilt Trip on May 08, 2024, 09:24:24 AM
Quote from: Bill_Berg on May 08, 2024, 09:08:48 AMThe only problem is the obvious choice of the 5 to go, can't go until 2025. So do they 'burn' another year by trying to tinker again with UFAs, or has the patience run out? And if patience has run out, will it lead to a bad decision (trade Marner for nothing).
They can't do anything with those contracts except ask if they'll waive and then if one agrees to go, he has the choice of destination. Chances are they're riding this out for another year until JT comes off the 11M.

Yeah, that seems most likely. But there is going to be a lot of animosity about them running it back again. Even if this time they're kinda forced.

cw

Quote from: Bender on May 08, 2024, 08:57:25 AM
Quote from: cw on May 08, 2024, 08:17:49 AM
Quote from: cabber24 on May 08, 2024, 06:27:59 AMWatch the f-ing games! The clown scores points when it matters least! Good god!

Games 3 & 4 against Tampa
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030123.HTM
https://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20222023/ES030124.HTM
Both won by the Leafs in OT
Marner set up 2 goals in each of those games

If Marner doesn't do that, everything else remaining the same, they lose both games and Tampa wins the series in 5 games. There is no game 6 or 7. And there is no 6 game series with Florida

There would have been no game 5 vs Florida if Marner had not set up and scored the only 2 Leafs goals to win game 4 when facing elimination.

Cherry picking games stats in games 5-7 is Fool's Gold.
All the playoff games matter because there are no games 5-7 unless you score some in games 1-4.

The fact remains. Do you attempt to trade him or do you attempt to resign him? Tavares comes off the books but I don't think Marner deserves to be paid in the realm of Auston Matthews, which is what he is asking for. There's a world in which Marner just walks away from the team without return anyway. You say it's crazy to trade him but he might just go on his own, and then what?

I would not want to keep him if he doesn't want to be here.
If they sit on their hands and let the media devour him, he's not going to want to stay.
They would be letting him be run out of town.
I do not think it is in their interest to let the media devour him.
I also don't think it is warranted - not even close.
If they don't get his back, he can turn around and say "I'll just ride out my NMC contract and go wherever I want next summer. F*ck you."
And they'll get nothing except his cap space in July 2025.
The discord among his teammates wouldn't be very good for next season either or maybe longer term.
They need to take care of this and do it quick.

As for trading him, the GM has to look at it.
However, his negotiating position is already compromised - both in terms of haggling with Marner's agent and with a sign and trade.
My priority would be on damage control of that. If they don't, they're already losing on the deal.

They apparently floated Nylander trying to get a top dman. Allegedly, no takers of something they thought would be worthwhile. A GM not looking at something like that is derelict in his duty.

Treliving did the Tkachuk deal. I thought he did pretty well. The Huberdeau contract was over the top for term. Dollar amount based upon his numbers wasn't that far off. He'd been top 12 in NHL scoring for 7 years. It is unlikely Treliving will make that mistake again.

With the core 5, if they could get a decent, reliable goalie, they can improve the D, sign Domi, grab a winger and they're a top 6 contender with a shot. That might be the path of least resistance and risk.

It's a Rubik's cube problem. They have to get as many of the colors to line up as they can - knowing they'll never get them all lined up but just hopefully, close enough to win.

herman

#163
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1788199783070335148

Over this sample size, the caveat is Matthews and Marner were largely tied together, usually assigned to shut down opposing top lines while largely getting shut down themselves. My theory behind that, after suffering through those games, is the offensive generation engine goes through Marner, and he is targeted to cripple Matthews' subsequent offense. Same game plan against the Leafs' PP every spring.

The article largely goes over the Leafs' choice to grind the pace of play down, which leaves them highly susceptible to variance (goalie/shooting luck), vs asserting a higher pace to give their offense more chances to make a difference and establish a higher differential, e.g. 2-1 vs 6-3.

Let's go, fasstholes.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

cw

Quote from: Bill_Berg on May 08, 2024, 09:38:31 AM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on May 08, 2024, 09:24:24 AM
Quote from: Bill_Berg on May 08, 2024, 09:08:48 AMThe only problem is the obvious choice of the 5 to go, can't go until 2025. So do they 'burn' another year by trying to tinker again with UFAs, or has the patience run out? And if patience has run out, will it lead to a bad decision (trade Marner for nothing).
They can't do anything with those contracts except ask if they'll waive and then if one agrees to go, he has the choice of destination. Chances are they're riding this out for another year until JT comes off the 11M.

Yeah, that seems most likely. But there is going to be a lot of animosity about them running it back again. Even if this time they're kinda forced.

It is most likely.
One of the core members, Tavares, is going at the end of next season whether that is by his physical departure or a serious reduction in his contract.
If Marner gets dumped and Tavares is also gone in July 2025, now you are short one elite talent more than you probably wanted with no one in the NHL willing to give one away.
Patience may be a virtue. Standing up for Marner might be a smart thing to do.

In the interim, they can retool with ~$19M in cap space to return themselves to contender status if they can stabilize the goaltending (maybe a big IF there). But right now, there are a few UFAs who might fill in some voids to make that plausible.