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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 02:40:35 PM

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herman, lamajama and 22 Guests are viewing this topic.

cabber24

Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 01:18:29 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 10:30:18 AMI'd take one Marner over two Bertuzzis.

Me too. In a heartbeat.

Bertuzzi's agent says there's been 'productive talks' with Maple Leafs

I don't understand why. He is well down my priority list.
What are you guys talking about? MM 10.9 + TB 5.5 = $16.4M.

Bertuzzi is not getting $8.2M.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

Joe

Quote from: cabber24 on June 19, 2024, 01:54:19 PM
Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 01:18:29 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 10:30:18 AMI'd take one Marner over two Bertuzzis.

Me too. In a heartbeat.

Bertuzzi's agent says there's been 'productive talks' with Maple Leafs

I don't understand why. He is well down my priority list.
What are you guys talking about? MM 10.9 + TB 5.5 = $16.4M.

Bertuzzi is not getting $8.2M.

Your math isn't mathing

cw

Quote from: cabber24 on June 19, 2024, 01:54:19 PM
Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 01:18:29 PM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 10:30:18 AMI'd take one Marner over two Bertuzzis.

Me too. In a heartbeat.

Bertuzzi's agent says there's been 'productive talks' with Maple Leafs

I don't understand why. He is well down my priority list.
What are you guys talking about? MM 10.9 + TB 5.5 = $16.4M.

Bertuzzi is not getting $8.2M.

2 x TB = 2 x 5.5 = $11 mil for two Tyler Bertuzzis

I do not think we need one at that $5.5M price.

I'd rather spend that money on a top 4 RH dman while we have some to pick up on the UFA market

I think that would be a better bang for their buck on this roster.

Bullfrog

Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 11:30:25 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

That's great that you think the "narrative" should stop, but I happen to think it's by far the worst outcome from a team perspective if he just walks. Life moves on, and the Leafs are a worse team and I don't think having the cap space is worth both not having Marner and not having assets come back from a Marner trade.

Worst outcome, sure. Disaster? no. There will be good players willing to sign in Toronto.

Bender

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 03:22:03 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 11:30:25 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

That's great that you think the "narrative" should stop, but I happen to think it's by far the worst outcome from a team perspective if he just walks. Life moves on, and the Leafs are a worse team and I don't think having the cap space is worth both not having Marner and not having assets come back from a Marner trade.

Worst outcome, sure. Disaster? no. There will be good players willing to sign in Toronto.

It's pretty horrible from an asset management perspective considering we have nothing coming down the pipeline and Marner can't be replaced via free agency.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

mr grieves

Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 11:50:43 AMThat depends on what the UFA market looks like for July 2025 in the spring of 2025.

I regard their 'window' with Matthews as the next four seasons. After that, if he still hasn't won here, why should he hang around?

If Marner looks to be headed out the door with no return and the Leafs feel the UFA market can't replace him (which I think is likely), then I would re-sign him because they've only got 3 more shots and no time to replace him.
$13 Mil seems steep. He'll be north of Nylander. I think he's a better player because he plays a 200-foot game. But I'm not sure it will be that high/as close to Matthews.
If the Leafs don't ante up, he'll get it or something very close on the open market and be gone quickly in early July 2025.

If the Leafs stop the stupid media chatter that they'd fed and play nice, they could get a home town discount. I believe him when he says that he wants to play in Toronto.

We have 4 years to win it with Matthews. That should guide a lot of their thinking on roster and contract decisions.

Is that $13M with the Leafs, over 8 years? Because to get that $104M on the open market would require someone go north of $14.5M. Where would he go to find a contract like that? What TB did with Stamkos seems a very reasonable and prudent way to handle Marner's next contract.

Joe

Quote from: mr grieves on June 19, 2024, 05:30:15 PMWhat TB did with Stamkos seems a very reasonable and prudent way to handle Marner's next contract.


So find a way to have no state income tax in a Canadian province?

Dappleganger

Quote from: Joe on June 19, 2024, 06:00:51 PM
Quote from: mr grieves on June 19, 2024, 05:30:15 PMWhat TB did with Stamkos seems a very reasonable and prudent way to handle Marner's next contract.


So find a way to have no state income tax in a Canadian province?

It's funny, taxing the "signing bonus" at 15% like the current John Tavares CRA situation gets you very close to the same tax level as a Florida 'no tax' state.

cw

Quote from: mr grieves on June 19, 2024, 05:30:15 PM
Quote from: cw on June 19, 2024, 11:50:43 AMThat depends on what the UFA market looks like for July 2025 in the spring of 2025.

I regard their 'window' with Matthews as the next four seasons. After that, if he still hasn't won here, why should he hang around?

If Marner looks to be headed out the door with no return and the Leafs feel the UFA market can't replace him (which I think is likely), then I would re-sign him because they've only got 3 more shots and no time to replace him.
$13 Mil seems steep. He'll be north of Nylander. I think he's a better player because he plays a 200-foot game. But I'm not sure it will be that high/as close to Matthews.
If the Leafs don't ante up, he'll get it or something very close on the open market and be gone quickly in early July 2025.

If the Leafs stop the stupid media chatter that they'd fed and play nice, they could get a home town discount. I believe him when he says that he wants to play in Toronto.

We have 4 years to win it with Matthews. That should guide a lot of their thinking on roster and contract decisions.

Is that $13M with the Leafs, over 8 years? Because to get that $104M on the open market would require someone go north of $14.5M. Where would he go to find a contract like that? What TB did with Stamkos seems a very reasonable and prudent way to handle Marner's next contract.

I doubt it would hit $13M with the Leafs. He has to be below Matthews. He should be more than Nylander because Nylander is not into a number things to be a complete player and Marner outscores him and plays 200 ft, etc. So in the Leafs salary structure, Marner is arguably between Nylander's $11.5 and Matthews $13.5.

Right now, there are only 7 UFA forwards for 2025-26 (not Marner or Tavares) under the age of 34 with .80 ppg or better last season. Like Marner, they cannot sign a new contract until July 1. A bunch of them will re-sign. If Marner gets added to that small crop of whatever UFAs are left, 31 teams potentially bidding to get a blue chip asset for free (aside from $) could drive his contract north of Matthews. Maybe he does what Matthews did - a 3-4 year deal so he can take another run at a hefty contract to finish his career.

There's bound to be a GM or two get silly. At that point, I think destination will become more important him and the dollars will get a little more sensible.

At the end of his current contract, Marner will have made $68M. Adding $100M +/- to that - how much does that matter at that point if he's going to a team that he thinks is best for him and his family. Florida or some low tax US state offering $100M closer to tax free vs what Tavares might be facing - that could tip the scales.

cw

Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 03:22:03 PM
Quote from: Bender on June 19, 2024, 11:30:25 AM
Quote from: Bullfrog on June 19, 2024, 09:44:59 AMI think this narrative of "it's a disaster if we can't trade X player" should stop. It's not a disaster. He played, he was paid. That should be the expectation. Life will move on.

Having him on the roster increases the chance of making and having success in the playoffs.

That's great that you think the "narrative" should stop, but I happen to think it's by far the worst outcome from a team perspective if he just walks. Life moves on, and the Leafs are a worse team and I don't think having the cap space is worth both not having Marner and not having assets come back from a Marner trade.

Worst outcome, sure. Disaster? no. There will be good players willing to sign in Toronto.

I would worry that Marner walking for nothing could significantly compromise their Cup chances with Matthews. Leafs management probably worries about that too.

UFA market for 2025-26 already looks slim - I doubt a bunch of them will be UFAs by the time Jul 2025 rolls around. If Marner is a UFA, he'll cash in big time.

Trading involves giving up assets to get back assets. It is not typically the asset boost adding a UFA can provide. Cap space for trading isn't as much of a direct boost.

That's why I think it is so unlikely Marner walks unless they piss him off. Leafs management will probably not let Marner significantly compromise their playoff contention (which his departure for nothing will probably do) because their jobs are on the line if they don't make headway there.

One thing the Leafs have going for them is Marner wanted to re-sign.
So they better cool it and not continue to make them "mad" (according to Friedman)

Agent Ferris knows all this and will play it like a concert violinist.
He's got them over a barrel.

Dappleganger

Connor McDavid, with 42 points so far this playoffs, is approaching the career playoff point totals of the Leafs Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, in this playoffs alone. Ouch.

Joe

If you're highlighting how impressive his run is, then sure, but if you're using this as an indictment against the leafs players, that's a little odd.

But just taking a Quick Look in the 22-23 he was actually at a higher ppg pace than this playoff run. Either way, the best player in the nhl being the best player in the nhl is great.

CarltonTheBear

https://twitter.com/kevin_mcgran/status/1803891631457997291

First time we've really heard anything about Gio since the season ended. Per his agent his hopes to play "for a few more years". That seems... optimistic for a defenceman who turns 41 this October.

Arn

He could still do a job in the Alps Hockey League for one of the Italian teams
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

cw

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 20, 2024, 03:58:08 PMhttps://twitter.com/kevin_mcgran/status/1803891631457997291

First time we've really heard anything about Gio since the season ended. Per his agent his hopes to play "for a few more years". That seems... optimistic for a defenceman who turns 41 this October.

Seems like very good guy.
I didn't think he was bad last season.
He could probably play a #6/7 dman on a developing team and help bring the kids along.